Author Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections  (Read 8025 times)

Wayward Son

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2018 Midterm Elections
« on: November 05, 2018, 01:27:33 PM »
From the indications right now, it looks like it will be a pretty good night for the Democrats.

The House will very likely flip to the Democrats.  FiveThirtyEight gives a 7 in 8 chance that the Democrats will win control.  Unless there is a Red Wave, any uncertainties should break both ways, averaging out the effects.

They should do well in the Senate, too.  Although there is only a slightly less chance that the Republicans will lose control (1 in 6), Democrats are almost guaranteed to win a majority of the seats up for grabs.  They will likely lose North Dakota, but have chance to pick up Nevada or Arizona.  They would have to win 80 percent of the seats in order to win the Senate, which will only happen if there is a very strong Blue Wave.

Governors and State Legislators races are expected to break better for Democrats, too.  Currently, about 48 percent of the population live in states where Republicans control both the Legislative Branch and Governor's mansions, while only 21 percent live in such Democratic states.  The forecast is, after the election, change in governorships will decrease the Republican states to about 32 percent of the population, and Democratic states to increase to 26 percent.  They may also pick up some Legislations where they miss the governorship, keeping the government dividied.  This may have significant impact in preventing gerrymandering once the 2020 census comes out.

Democrats won't be dancing in the streets unless the polls are way off, but neither will Republicans.  But all in all, regardless of how Trump will call it, it looks like it will be better for Democrats than Republicans.

rightleft22

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 04:54:54 PM »
I'm not so sure about a Democrat win in the house or Senate. I don't have anything to go on, just a gut feel that their focus on attacking Trump vice issues works against them

I'm also thinking it might be better if they do lose and the DNC really needs to take a good hard look at themselves. You would have thought 2016 would have been enough to trigger that)
Also If they win the house Trump will just use them as a excuses for any failures he might have in getting polices passed or if the economy stats to falter. 

Wayward Son

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2018, 05:37:44 PM »
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Also If they win the house Trump will just use them as a excuses for any failures he might have in getting polices passed or if the economy stats to falter.

And that differs from the current situation in what way? :)

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2018, 05:47:34 PM »
Trump doesn't need excuses because everything he does is wonderful, better than any previous government. In order to make an excuse for failure, he would first have to admit failure, and that isn't going to happen. He didn't spend a lot of time blaming Congress for not repealing Obamacare, he just declared that it was repealed anyway.

As for the midterms, I'm always at my most nervous when either party gets control of House, Senate, and Executive. I'm looking forward to some gridlock, assuming the Democrats win the House. I admit that a side benefit of this will be to watch Trump melt down as his favorite proposals aren't allowed to reach the floor for a vote. You know, everything the Republican house did to Obama. Launching dozens of votes to undo his signature "deals", even knowing that the Senate will never support them, and that even then that the Veto would crush these symbolic gestures.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2018, 05:49:32 PM »
I'm still waiting to hear what the Democrats intend to do with whatever control they get.  I can't parse out any positive policy goals they seek to pursue.

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2018, 06:06:42 PM »
Realistically, they won't be able to accomplish much at the federal level.. Trump would squash anything they support, even if they won the Senate. Their policy goals are to expand medical coverage, the most radical pushing Medicare for all. They would open up immigration and restore Obama era policy. They would restore Planned Parenthood funding. They would propose environmental rules as legislation to replace those implemented at the agency level. Those are probably the most repeated policy ideas that I've seen across all the races generally.

Without the ability to get anything past Presidential veto, they will likely focus on the same kind of thing Republicans did when Obama held the White House with a veto-proof minority.

Wayward Son

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2018, 06:36:51 PM »
One thing Democrats are looking forward to is draining the swamp.  Trump and his appointees will be under much closer scrutiny if they take the House.  And we'll all get to see what Trump promised us two years ago:  his tax return!  :D  A 1924 law allows the Ways and Means Committee chairman to request it.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2018, 07:26:37 PM »
One thing Democrats are looking forward to is draining the swamp.  Trump and his appointees will be under much closer scrutiny if they take the House.  And we'll all get to see what Trump promised us two years ago:  his tax return!  :D  A 1924 law allows the Ways and Means Committee chairman to request it.

Lol, exactly.  They have a negative message.  Stop Trump hold him "accountable."  While you're at it, impeach him for political disagreement.

Realistically, they won't be able to accomplish much at the federal level.. Trump would squash anything they support, even if they won the Senate.

Notwithstanding your claim, TheDrake, I'm pretty sure Trump would be more than happy to sign compromise grand legislation packages.  I mean, he flat out agreed to make DACA permanent and to reform the immigration system in exchange for reforms that 80% of the country wants and apparently that wasn't "enough."

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Their policy goals are to expand medical coverage, the most radical pushing Medicare for all.

I don't there's anyone opposed to expanding medical coverage.  There are plenty opposed to federal take over of the entire system and pushing one size fits all solutions on the country.  I do agree this has been a small part of a message (haven't seen a single commericial focused on it positively, have seen a TON focused on making false claims about a Republican opponent - some of which are flat out lies).

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They would open up immigration and restore Obama era policy.

What does that mean?  What policy of Obama's has been overturned?  The actual debate on this - as a positive - doesn't appear in any commercial I've seen.  It's all tar and feathering and accusing Trump of hate, again notwithstanding, 80% of the country seems to agree with the general thrust of his message.

Can you point me at the commercial that is advocating for something explicit?

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They would restore Planned Parenthood funding.

That's kind of sore spot.  PP funding was never really legit so long as the Federal Government has a ban on funding abortions.  I have no problem with undoing that law, but it ought to be voted on.

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They would propose environmental rules as legislation to replace those implemented at the agency level.

Which ones?  The EPA grab over waters of the United States (hugely unpopular)?  The ban on Coal Plants (also unpopular)?  Rejoining the Paris Accord (once again a "treaty" that does next to nothing for the environment and a heck of alot to punish the US)?  What policies have you seen advocated here?

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Those are probably the most repeated policy ideas that I've seen across all the races generally.

Can you point me to those races? 

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Without the ability to get anything past Presidential veto, they will likely focus on the same kind of thing Republicans did when Obama held the White House with a veto-proof minority.

No, we all know what they will actually do.  Their entire "plan" is to cause as much chaos as possible and to prevent anything from happening.  As many investigations as they come up - regardless of merit.

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2018, 07:58:36 PM »
To be clear, I'm not qualified to talk about what TV ad buys are on about as I don't watch them, and rarely read reports on what they are. I get message from quotes, candidate sites, and other such things. Clearly many Democrats are running on anti-Trump messages, but that's more because it is a realistic promise. They will hold the power of the purse and be able to thwart Trump desires and at least hold a status quo.

That's generally the role of an opposition party. There have been exceptions, like NCLB, which were controversial.

I'm not sure where you get the idea that 80% of the country agrees with Trump on immigration. His centerpiece, The Wall, is opposed by a majority of Americans. DACA is favored by 83%, which Trump suspended and cast into doubt. Ending so called "chain migration" is opposed by 52%. The only thing I can find that comes close to 80% is people who worry a little or more about illegal immigration.

Immigration poll numbers over time

velcro

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2018, 10:19:46 PM »
I mean, he flat out agreed to make DACA permanent and to reform the immigration system in exchange for reforms that 80% of the country wants

Source, please?

Again, I really am not trolling.  I am not being facetious.  I read things that don't sound right, and want to find out for sure if they are right or wrong.

As far as what the Democrats will do - unless they get the Senate, all they will have is the power to investigate and subpoena.

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They have a negative message.  Stop Trump hold him "accountable."  While you're at it, impeach him for political disagreement.

I think it is pretty clear that holding someone accountable is essentially "draining the swamp".  Was that a negative message?
Is the entire purpose of the House Oversight Committee negative?
Is accountability a bad thing to want?  Has the Republican Congress held the President accountable in any meaningful way, the way the Constitution intends it to be?

Reasons Democrats have discussed impeachment, other than "political disagreement" (not proven, but reasons they have given)
-released classified information to Russia
-asked Comey to drop the investigation into Flynn
-his comments after Charlottesville
-undermining the judiciary
-undermining freedom of press
-undermining the FBI
-emoluments

Note that some of the reasons Republicans included in Nixon's articles of impeachment were:

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making false statements to investigators, withholding relevant evidence, approving or counseling perjury, interfering with the Justice Department's investigation, approving payment of hush money to Watergate defendants, passing on information about the investigation to his aides who were suspects, making false statements to the American people about White House involvement in Watergate and causing defendants to believe they might receive clemency for the silence.

One more time, I am not trolling.  You implied that Democratic reasons for impeachment were "political disagreement".  Maybe I misinterpreted, in which case, I apologize.  But in any case, there are many, many valid reasons to consider impeachment.  I do not claim that any are proven - no need to rebut any or all.  But none are frivolous, so they contradict the sentiment that the reasons are "political disagreement"

And to give you some insight into my thought processes: when someone flippantly makes an unfounded, controversial, and arguably contemptuous statement, I tend to point out the shortcomings of the statement.  The same statement made cogently with facts and sources that support the statement will be helpful and appreciated.

You are a very intelligent, well-informed, analytical person.  I admire that.  I only wish that you would think about what you are writing, make sure it is true to the best of your knowledge, and well thought out.  Throwing random unsupported claims around just causes chaos and prevents real discussion from happening.

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No, we all know what they will actually do.  Their entire "plan" is to cause as much chaos as possible and to prevent anything from happening.  As many investigations as they come up - regardless of merit.

I am asking you to please refrain from this sort of statement.  It serves no purpose except to incite and mislead.  If you think Democrats want gridlock, say so, with your reasons and evidence.  If there are meritless investigations, point them out when they happen and show why they are meritless with facts and sources.  But blanket accusations before the fact, with no factual bases, are just biases and stereotypes.

Respectfully,

V


Pete at Home

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 03:05:00 AM »
From the indications right now, it looks like it will be a pretty good night for the Democrats.

The House will very likely flip to the Democrats.  FiveThirtyEight gives a 7 in 8 chance that the Democrats will win control.  Unless there is a Red Wave, any uncertainties should break both ways, averaging out the effects.

BTW I'm up and awake now because I woke up from a horrible nightmare that I'd just found out that election day had been November 5th, that Republicans had tricked me into thinking that it was November 6, and that I'd missed my chance to vote for Stacey Abrams.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/11/06/stacey-abrams-racist-robocall-oprah-response-ac360-sot-vpx.cnn I've studied the call and find no fingerprints to help me decide whether the robocall was written by white racists (I've interacted with the animals: a white self proclaimed member of Aryan nation got uninvited into my car in May 2018 and threatened my life in June 2018 forcing me to move and keep secret where I live).  If anyone sees anything I missed, please let me know.  And the Oprah response is awesome.   "Jesus doesn't like ugly."  God I love Oprah.  AFAIC she and the first Henry Ford are the only two human beings in history to actually earn 1 billion dollars; other billionaires in my opinion either stole or inherited or mostly lucked out.



Pete at Home

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 03:41:51 AM »
Quote from: Wayward Son
They should do well in the Senate, too.  Although there is only a slightly less chance that the Republicans will lose control (1 in 6), Democrats are almost guaranteed to win a majority of the seats up for grabs.  They will likely lose North Dakota, but have chance to pick up Nevada or Arizona.  They would have to win 80 percent of the seats in order to win the Senate, which will only happen if there is a very strong Blue Wave.

Governors and State Legislators races are expected to break better for Democrats, too.  Currently, about 48 percent of the population live in states where Republicans control both the Legislative Branch and Governor's mansions, while only 21 percent live in such Democratic states.  The forecast is, after the election, change in governorships will decrease the Republican states to about 32 percent of the population, and Democratic states to increase to 26 percent.  They may also pick up some Legislations where they miss the governorship, keeping the government dividied.  This may have significant impact in preventing gerrymandering once the 2020 census comes out.

Democrats won't be dancing in the streets unless the polls are way off, but neither will Republicans. 

If we win in the house but not in the Senate, and if Stacey Abrams wins governor, I WILL be dancing in the frakking streets, Wayward.  Yes, Senate is the gateway for federal judiciary appointees.  Ordinarily I'd wring my hands with you, but here,  I defy you to show me any standing court trump appointee decision as vile as or even close to as loathsome as Gonzalez v. Raich. Raich was signed by Justices Stevens, Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, and Breyer and written by Antonin Scalia.  (I confess to have once harbored respect for Justice Scalia until the Raich abomination.)

So I'm going to be OK with Republicans approving judicial nominees until one of the following occurs:

Democratic senators start grilling appointees for their views on the constitutionality of America's current laws against marijuana with the same rigor that they defend abortion rights,

OR

Colorado and Oregon's laws on Marijuana becomes the national standard in all 50 states and all territories.

OR

SCOTUS unanimously holds that marijuana's classification and prohibition as a Schedule I narcotic violates 14th Amendment substantive due process

unless otherwise convinced, I will argue that if one examines factors a-d below, that Marijuana's presence on Schedule I represents the most extreme civil rights problem of our day.  (And no; I'm not putting down Black Lives Matter; I'm giving support to BLM's most valid argument).

FACTORS A-D:
(a) degree of constitutional violation; (b) number of persons whose rights have been violated; (c) degree of harm and pain to innocents resulting from Cannibis' placement on Schedule I; and (d) invidious legislative intent (to be precise, legislative intent to keep African Americans as a servile undercaste)

yossarian22c

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2018, 07:23:28 AM »
I mean, he flat out agreed to make DACA permanent and to reform the immigration system in exchange for reforms that 80% of the country wants

Source, please?

Again, I really am not trolling.  I am not being facetious.  I read things that don't sound right, and want to find out for sure if they are right or wrong.

As far as what the Democrats will do - unless they get the Senate, all they will have is the power to investigate and subpoena.

There were several times Trump "supported" an immigration deal in theory but when congress would actually negotiate bipartisan legislation that met Trump's criteria he would move the goal posts. He did this to at least one (maybe two) bipartisan bills before congress quit trying. So Seriati is correct that Trump offered DACA as part of a package a couple times - he just happened to be lying when he made the offer.

Crunch

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2018, 07:41:36 AM »
The polls are crap, we learned that in 2016. Especially Nate Silver’s. Polling is no longer about reflecting public opinion but shaping it. So I don’t follow polls and it’s a fool that does, you’re looking for confirmation of your bias, nothing more.

It’s a tough call. Typically, the mid terms should see a loss for the Republicans. But, with the best economy in American history, people vote their wallets. With the best economic situation ever for black and hispanic voters, there may be some splitting of that voting block. It’s all over the place on this one, could go either way.

If Democrats don’t at least take the house, I expect them to get even more violent (as though there's something more violent than gunning down people at softball practice).


Pete at Home

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2018, 10:21:46 AM »
I expect them to get even more violent (as though there's something more violent than gunning down people at softball practice).

Why is softball practice more sacred to you Republican than churches?  Last I checked, we Dems have made few recent incursions into the whole gunning people down in their churches meme.  That's still solid conservative territory.  Also, setting your dogs on election canvassers for the other side.

Crunch

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2018, 06:37:02 PM »
What makes you think such ridiculous things?  ::)

yossarian22c

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2018, 09:20:58 PM »
Early results have it looking like republicans pick up a couple in the senate and democrats take the house.

Ronald Lambert

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2018, 04:14:38 AM »
The loss of the majority of the House of Representatives was very unfortunate. At least Republicans increased their majority in the Senate, which will clear the way for President Trump to continue to make judicial appointments, including a likely additional appointment to the Supreme Court, considering how old some of the most liberal justices are. Governance will be interesting with a divided legislative branch. Let's hope Democrats keep their word and do not elect Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House--just two steps away from the presidency, after the Vice President.

The Democrat majority in the House is not very large, and will easily be flipped in the 2020 election.

It is heartening to see that most of the Democrat senators on the senate Judiciary Committee who voted against Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court have been voted out of office, and those who voted in favor of his confirmation were approved by voters. The sins of Democrats in their blatant use of the politics of personal destruction, and ignoring the principle of "Innocent until proven guilty" has been punished, at least in that regard. If only Dianne Feinstein had not escaped her just political due.

As some TV commentators have noted, the Republican gains in the senate included replacing senators who had not been cooperative with the President, such as Flake and McCain. So Republicans not only have a larger majority in the senate, they also are more in harmony with Trump.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 04:22:01 AM by Ronald Lambert »

Crunch

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2018, 07:13:23 AM »
Early results have it looking like republicans pick up a couple in the senate and democrats take the house.

So it went pretty much along with expectations.

Republicans expanding their lead in the senste could very well mean Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett.  ;D

Democrats taking the house means we’ll see the Kavanuagh hearings writ large.

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2018, 08:12:16 AM »
In my county, 64 thousand voted republican straight ticket. 53 thousand democrats voted straight ticket. 86 thousand people had an open mind and did their job as voters.

This is how we get people who are indicted winning elections. This is why downballot candidates don't even have to campaign. This is why third parties never have a chance. This is why we can't have nice things.

yossarian22c

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2018, 09:24:31 AM »
This is how we get people who are indicted winning elections. This is why downballot candidates don't even have to campaign. This is why third parties never have a chance. This is why we can't have nice things.

Gerrymandering doesn't help either. My state had a house popular vote ~50.3% R ~48.5% D and are sending 10 republicans and 3 democrats to the house. Which is exactly the distribution promised by the republican in charge of drawing the maps.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/party-lines

Interesting podcast about how a Duke math professor came up with a measure of how gerrymandered a map is. The NC maps have been declared unconstitutional by a federal appeals court - there just hasn't been time to redraw them yet.

Crunch

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2018, 09:33:04 AM »
In my county, 64 thousand voted republican straight ticket. 53 thousand democrats voted straight ticket. 86 thousand people had an open mind and did their job as voters.

This is how we get people who are indicted winning elections. This is why downballot candidates don't even have to campaign. This is why third parties never have a chance. This is why we can't have nice things.

Actually, all of them did their job as voters. They voted for who they want, they just didn’t vote the way you wanted them to.

D.W.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2018, 10:05:01 AM »
This is how we get people who are indicted winning elections. This is why downballot candidates don't even have to campaign. This is why third parties never have a chance. This is why we can't have nice things.

Gerrymandering doesn't help either. My state had a house popular vote ~50.3% R ~48.5% D and are sending 10 republicans and 3 democrats to the house. Which is exactly the distribution promised by the republican in charge of drawing the maps.

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/party-lines

Interesting podcast about how a Duke math professor came up with a measure of how gerrymandered a map is. The NC maps have been declared unconstitutional by a federal appeals court - there just hasn't been time to redraw them yet.

The best part about the MI results was we've not got a shot at a less partisan (not naive enough to say non-partisan) commission to avoid such things starting in 2020. 

Grant

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2018, 10:16:54 AM »
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Lol, exactly.  They have a negative message.  Stop Trump hold him "accountable."  While you're at it, impeach him for political disagreement.

Like “Lock her up”? Like “Impeach Obama”?

Forgive me, but I have a short memory. What exactly was the Trump Admin legislative agenda again? Build the Wall? Repeal Obamacare? And tax cuts that increase the deficit.

Ronald Lambert

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2018, 10:30:16 AM »
Tax cuts that benefit EVERYONE and produce a booming economy, with the lowest unemployment in history for African-Americans and Hispanics, and the lowest in 65 years for women.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 10:36:13 AM by Ronald Lambert »

Ronald Lambert

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2018, 10:43:40 AM »
All three ballot proposals in Michigan were approved by approximately a 2-1 margin. The first legalized all uses of marijuana, the second authorized creation of a commission to redraw district lines (supposedly a remedy for Gerrymandering, but really an effort to do an end-run around the Republican-dominated Michigan legislature), and the third allowed voters to register to vote as late as election day, and restored the previous provision for voting a straight party ticket, which had been lost in recent years. I voted no on the first two, and yes on the third. Michigan now becomes the tenth state to approve recreational use of marijuana. There are no budget restrictions on the redistricting commission, the way is wide open for abuse by having supposedly non-partisan commissioners who are covert partisans.

Grant

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2018, 10:53:44 AM »
Tax cuts that benefit EVERYONE and produce a booming economy, with the lowest unemployment in history for African-Americans and Hispanics, and the lowest in 65 years for women.

“‘Member when the Republican party was fiscally conservative?”
“Oh, I remember!”
“Like when they talked about the deficit eventually destroying the economy and causing government failure, and were against eventual long term ruin caused by short term gains?”
“Yeah, I remember!”

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2018, 10:58:41 AM »
In my county, 64 thousand voted republican straight ticket. 53 thousand democrats voted straight ticket. 86 thousand people had an open mind and did their job as voters.

This is how we get people who are indicted winning elections. This is why downballot candidates don't even have to campaign. This is why third parties never have a chance. This is why we can't have nice things.

Actually, all of them did their job as voters. They voted for who they want, they just didn’t vote the way you wanted them to.

Try to pay attention. I didn't say anything about who they voted for, I said something about how they voted. So they didn't vote for "who" they want because they have no idea who they voted for. They voted for "what" they wanted - to stick it to the rand.choice(Democrats, Republicans).

It is an abdication of civic duty to go vote straight ticket Democrat because Trump pissed you off.

Wayward Son

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2018, 11:20:34 AM »
Tax cuts that benefit EVERYONE and produce a booming economy, with the lowest unemployment in history for African-Americans and Hispanics, and the lowest in 65 years for women.

But some more equally than others. :)

And what's that name hear faintly in the distance?  The one that used to boom all over the Conservative airwaves, but is nary mentioned but in whispers anymore?  The one that Republicans banished until they no longer hold the reigns of power?

Oh, yes. "Federal deficit."  That which had to be sacrificed to gain the beloved tax cut for the rich.  That which we will have to make worse come the next recession, because the Republicans wasted this powerful tool during a recovery.

Ah, but the future of our children is but a small price to pay to make the wealthy much wealthier, isn't it? ;)

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2018, 03:33:58 PM »
I meant to post this earlier.  One of the direct consequences of the Senate races - that the Senate became Trumpier - is that he'll be able to get his nominations through far more easily.  Most have focused on the judiciary, but the biggest are that he be able to replace Jeff Sessions, and appoint a new head of the CFPB in the last year of this Presidency (which means it'd take a two term President to recapture that agency - exactly as Warren intended).

Why I'm late, is of course, Jeff Sessions just announced his resignation.

EDIT - Mueller pretty has until the new AG is appointed to bring charges.

Ronald Lambert

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2018, 03:34:38 PM »
Present estimates are that Democrats picked up 27 seats in the House of Representatives. They needed 23 to take over majority control. That means they will have a majority of about four seats. That slim margin will be easily flipped in the 2020 election. And since most of the new Democrat Representatives are moderates who have promised not to vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House, it will be very unlikely that Democrats will vote as a block. So Democrats will have to make deals with Republicans if they want to get anything done, other than launch frivolous investigations and vain attempts an impeachment--doomed to fail in a Senate that is dominated by Republicans who are now even more harmoniously pro-Trump.

Ronald Lambert

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2018, 03:37:44 PM »
Seriati, our national debt is outrageous. One good thing about it is that if we go down, we will take communist China down with us, since they hold most of our debts.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2018, 03:38:14 PM »
In my county, 64 thousand voted republican straight ticket. 53 thousand democrats voted straight ticket. 86 thousand people had an open mind and did their job as voters.

My first straight ticket ever.  I did my job as a voter, as one of the parties has gone so far off the deep end as to not have any sensible positive policy solutions for the country.

I often didn't care who was the AG, they'd prosecute crimes pretty much regardless of party, now they are more interesting in prosecuting politics and it really matters.   Local politicians are aligning on national political issues to an alarming degree.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2018, 03:43:34 PM »
Gerrymandering doesn't help either. My state had a house popular vote ~50.3% R ~48.5% D and are sending 10 republicans and 3 democrats to the house. Which is exactly the distribution promised by the republican in charge of drawing the maps.

I think NC has two districts that are under consideration as possibly gerrymandered and the SC stayed the matter until it can consider it itself.  Is that not the case?

It's not unusual for the results you site to occur as a direct result of D's living in tight clusters.  Is a large City one district and the five rural counties around it separate?  Or is the City divided into 2, 3, 4, 5 or even 6 parts and tied into those rural districts?  Depending on how you split it you can easily get anything from 6 R's/0 D's to 2R's/4D's.  You can do that without drawing crazy lines.  So what is the "right" answer for redistricting?

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2018, 03:45:13 PM »
Seriati, our national debt is outrageous. One good thing about it is that if we go down, we will take communist China down with us, since they hold most of our debts.

Yes, Trump has been a huge disappointment on getting the budget under control.  I don't have don't have a problem with tax cuts and an expectation they generate revenue, but it's unquestionable the government spends too much and needs to cut it back.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2018, 03:51:34 PM »
Tax cuts that benefit EVERYONE and produce a booming economy, with the lowest unemployment in history for African-Americans and Hispanics, and the lowest in 65 years for women.

“‘Member when the Republican party was fiscally conservative?”

I remember when they said they were.  Honestly though, there doesn't seem to be any politician that will ever turn off the spigot of payola when it benefits their own power.  The best you can hope for is a Republican Congress and a Democratic President as that's the only time it results in a reduction in spending.

On the other hand, there really isn't any basis for cries of "but the deficit" from the left.  There's not anyone that's even paid lip service to the idea of reducing spending.  The only "anti-deficit" argument you get is to increase "revenues" - or in other words to impose crippling taxes on whomever is the target of the envy based politics of the week.

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2018, 03:56:34 PM »
My first straight ticket ever.  I did my job as a voter, as one of the parties has gone so far off the deep end as to not have any sensible positive policy solutions for the country.

I often didn't care who was the AG, they'd prosecute crimes pretty much regardless of party, now they are more interesting in prosecuting politics and it really matters.   Local politicians are aligning on national political issues to an alarming degree.

I believe you, and I'm sure there are others within the swath I quoted who actually did know a fair amount about the ballot headliners.

I agree, I was astonished at the number of downballot candidates who quoted issues that have no bearing on their job or jurisdiction. Justice of the Peace Candidate weighing in on Constitutional issues? County Comptroller talking about immigration?

Even if you decided that you could never vote for a Democrat at any level, couldn't there be circumstances where you would abstain or vote for a Libertarian - especially in a comfortable race?

My own ticket was a blend of Democrat, Republican, Independent, and Libertarian. Sometimes people were just terribly unqualified for the position they sought, especially when it came to school trustee positions. Those don't come with a party affiliation, at least for now, so straight ticket would leave them blank.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #37 on: November 07, 2018, 04:19:29 PM »
Even if you decided that you could never vote for a Democrat at any level, couldn't there be circumstances where you would abstain or vote for a Libertarian - especially in a comfortable race?

My past practice has been to never vote in a race where I didn't know the candidates (or at least one) well enough to cast a vote.  I have voted for Democrats before, haven't typically had an actual Libertarian on the ballot, but I have voted for more than one independent.  That said, the binary risk is getting too great to split off votes to candidates that I no longer think have a realistic chance.

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My own ticket was a blend of Democrat, Republican, Independent, and Libertarian. Sometimes people were just terribly unqualified for the position they sought, especially when it came to school trustee positions. Those don't come with a party affiliation, at least for now, so straight ticket would leave them blank.

My biggest issue in local politics are people who repeatedly complain about specific issues then vote "straight ticket" for the very people that caused the issues.  This happens a lot on school board votes, but it also happens in connection with local budgeting issues, people who have authority over local union contracts, the zoning board and local property taxes.

My second biggest is people who vote "because they know someone personally."

TheDrake

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #38 on: November 07, 2018, 04:41:00 PM »
I also like to make sure that I never give a vote to an unopposed candidate. The lower the numbers, the more likely a challenger next time. Yeah, I am overly optimistic, but that's my strategy nonetheless.

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My second biggest is people who vote "because they know someone personally."

Closely related to the "who would you rather have a beer with" test.  ??? :o >:(

While this is a media proxy, it sums up the people who just consider someone "a nice guy". Whoever can show them more videos of them playing with their kids, chopping wood, or wearing a hard hat.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2018, 04:52:20 PM »
I'm not aware of a national politician that isn't charming in person.  I agree having a beer with them is a horrid test.

TheDeamon

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #40 on: November 07, 2018, 05:10:13 PM »
Seriati, our national debt is outrageous. One good thing about it is that if we go down, we will take communist China down with us, since they hold most of our debts.

Pretty sure the single biggest creditor when it comes to the Federal Debt at this time remains the Social Security Trust Fund. Of course, that's now changing as more is now leaving that fund than is going into it, but it will be at least another decade before any single entity is likely to eclipse it.

rightleft22

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #41 on: November 07, 2018, 05:29:24 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one. Albert Einstein

A concern after the 2008 bubble bursting was that people started to doubt the realty of money and the system.   

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2018, 11:11:00 AM »
BTW I'm up and awake now because I woke up from a horrible nightmare that I'd just found out that election day had been November 5th, that Republicans had tricked me into thinking that it was November 6, and that I'd missed my chance to vote for Stacey Abrams.

Pete, could have sworn you said you were working on Abrams' campaign.  What do you make of this analysis of the nationally reported pre-election issues on voter registration in Georgia.  If this is accurate, it sounds like they were flat lies for the most part.

https://www.creators.com/read/erick-erickson/11/18/where-do-we-go-when-journalism-fails-us

Pete at Home

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #43 on: November 12, 2018, 11:33:30 PM »
BTW I'm up and awake now because I woke up from a horrible nightmare that I'd just found out that election day had been November 5th, that Republicans had tricked me into thinking that it was November 6, and that I'd missed my chance to vote for Stacey Abrams.

Pete, could have sworn you said you were working on Abrams' campaign. 

Yep. I should have voted early but didn't until election day.

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What do you make of this analysis of the nationally reported pre-election issues on voter registration in Georgia.  If this is accurate, it sounds like they were flat lies for the most part.

https://www.creators.com/read/erick-erickson/11/18/where-do-we-go-when-journalism-fails-us

I don't think it's accurate.  If I wasn't a recovering ex gambler I'd put money on it being proved false.  I live in Augusta which is the most conservative and pro-Trump part of Georgia if not the United States.  Kemp had more ads on TV but there were more Stacey Abrams signs by a long shot.  I know only one person who gave me a hard time for my support of Abrams without resorting to threats or violence.  Everyone here knows Kemp cheated.  Seriati, it was plain dishonest for Kemp to fail to recuse himself from his position in the first place. You can't run for election and take responsibility for trimming the voting rolls.  It's preposterous.  The article is wishful thinking.

I opposed the recounts and the "clear intent of the voter" crap in Bush v Gore 2000.  This is different, Seriati.  You know my history here and my take no prisoners approach to leftwashing. 

Abrams has done what no other candidate before has to my knowledge dared: declared war on the unholy alliance between private kleptocracy and the justice system.  Bye bye Georgia's infamous private prisons. Bye to private "education" systems that courts send you to, that take your money and then send you back to jail if you come late 5 minutes unless you pay double tuition and start over.

Honestly, Seriati, I've seen even Trump supporters come around and support her.  She's really that good, and when the facts come out, you don't want to be the one standing around with the Kemp sign.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #44 on: November 13, 2018, 10:47:33 AM »
Everyone here knows Kemp cheated.  Seriati, it was plain dishonest for Kemp to fail to recuse himself from his position in the first place. You can't run for election and take responsibility for trimming the voting rolls.  It's preposterous.  The article is wishful thinking.

Pete, you do understand that AG is an elected position?  That many election supervisers are also elected officials.  In fact, I'm not aware of any state - maybe your are - where the officials in charge of the election are not themselves elected.

Can you clarify how a "recusal" works in such a circumstance?  It sounds mostly like a meme that's been repeated and not thought out to request one here.

I'm also curious, as it was quite clear in the articles that Kemp can NOT trim voter rolls in an election year, is that statement false, or are you operating on a misunderstanding?

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I opposed the recounts and the "clear intent of the voter" crap in Bush v Gore 2000.  This is different, Seriati.  You know my history here and my take no prisoners approach to leftwashing.

Pete is it different?  Based on the reported numbers there is no basis for a runoff.

I'm sure Stacey is great person, and I'm glad you've found someone that inspires you.  But that's a not a basis to ignore the results.

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Honestly, Seriati, I've seen even Trump supporters come around and support her.  She's really that good, and when the facts come out, you don't want to be the one standing around with the Kemp sign.

I don't have a position on the race.  I'm just reacting as an outsider.  But I'm deeply troubled by what I see as a national trend of the media trying to sell the story that every close race is "stolen" from the Blue candidate.  This one honestly, isn't even that close.  Your candidate is trying to dispute whether the other guy got more than 50% of the vote.  Not that she won.

Wayward Son

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #45 on: November 13, 2018, 11:58:55 AM »
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This one honestly, isn't even that close.  Your candidate is trying to dispute whether the other guy got more than 50% of the vote.  Not that she won.

IIRC, she doesn't have to have "won."  If the vote for one candidate is less than 50%, no one won the election.  State law mandates that there has to be a run-off between the top two candidates to determine the winner.

D.W.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #46 on: November 13, 2018, 12:09:46 PM »
How much of the vote went to someone other than these two?

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #47 on: November 13, 2018, 12:38:16 PM »
I never said otherwise Wayward.  What I can say is she lost, and it appears the other guy got more than 50%, which means it's a convincing loss.  What she's trying to do is grab a do over, where the massive amounts of outside money can be leveraged to change the actual result.  There's no basis for it based on the reported margins.

Are we really only going to play by the rules when the "correct" team wins?

D.W.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #48 on: November 13, 2018, 12:41:26 PM »
That is a curious question coming from you.  Thought you were kinda a rules guy, no matter what.

Seriati

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #49 on: November 13, 2018, 12:45:31 PM »
That is a curious question coming from you.  Thought you were kinda a rules guy, no matter what.

I'm not sure what you mean, but I tend to believe that corruption in elections is often most present at the local level and works it's way up.  Almost every dispute we've ever had comes from a local situation with in adequate controls that causes it to be impossible for the aggrieved side to believe it's fair.  You see that in counties in Florida, and you see it in Pete's GA race.  That said, it still needs to be demonstrated, and it can't just be local officials in Broward are doing good (ie supporting Democrats) and in Georgia are doing bad (ie not supporting Democrats).