Author Topic: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare  (Read 9062 times)

Wayward Son

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Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:04:00 AM »
Or so reports Yahoo news, based on a report by the New York Times.

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Republicans on Capitol Hill say Donald Trump may be willing to cut Social Security and Medicare if he wins in 2020, reportedly describing the potential move as a “second-term project”.

Several senators told the New York Times in a report published this week they spoke to the president about reducing the costs of the federal health care and retirement programs — a move that would likely stir controversy in a presidential election season.

Republicans have said cutting both programs is crucial to reducing the nation’s deficit, which has ballooned under Mr Trump thanks, in part, to the GOP tax bill passed in 2017.

Senator John Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming, described the process of cutting the costs of social security and medicare to the New York Times as “best done during divided government”.

“We’ve brought it up with President Trump,” he added, “who has talked about out it being a second-term project.”

Senator John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, also told the newspaper that reducing the costs of the federal programs would require “presidential leadership” and “courage by the Congress to make some hard votes”.

“We can’t keep kicking the can down the road,” he said, adding: “I hope in a second term, [Mr Trump] is interested. With his leadership, I think we could start dealing with that crisis. And it is a crisis.”

When you create a $1.5 trillion tax cut, somebody has to pay for it.  And who better than widows and the poor? ;)

Pete at Home

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2019, 11:31:09 AM »
It sucks for me since I’m in line for a hip replacement and getting my abdomen seeed back together from the 2010 courthouse shooting.  But I wonder about making medicine a quasi constitutional right when both parties have used actual government mechanisms to quadruple the price of food while cutting food stamps, and underrepresented the homeless numbers by over 70%. See, E.g., the New Republic article on “the new homeless”  which proposes the radical idea (gasp)  that so many poor or homeless because there aren’t enough houses for the poor.  And there isn’t enough housing for the poor ,  because the law enables functional needed housing to be torn up and rebuilt on the turn of a dime.

1936-1980 was the exceptional period where the USA  balanced its budget  and attempted greatness on the backs of the rich instead of the poor.   It’s been mostly downhill since then. 

Grant

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2019, 11:35:50 AM »
1.  Trump hasn't been re-elected yet. 

2.  We havn't seen any proposal yet, to see what is actually in it and what is proposed. 

3.  Democrats will probably still control the House. 


So.... why start defecating all over the place like a guy who just ate a really bad burrito?  Explosive feces all over the place.  Is it just to create more fear?  The more poop the better?  Cool. You're now Fox News.  You have now successfully reminded me that Republicans hate widows and orphans. 

Pete at Home

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2019, 12:11:25 PM »
Maybe we’ve eaten a really bad burrito.

I appreciate your general concern about news cycle panic and hyperbole but I think you’ve picked a bad example.

( back in the 1990s, I said the same thing about democrat criticism of the Republican attempts to “privatize “ social security.  Then 2008 happened. 

 For the record, I don’t take the position that Republicans hate widows and orphans.  And if they did, they certainly don’t Hate them more than some  Democrats hate the white Red state poor.  (Down to sponsoring “just so science” that “proves” that white males are a menace that needs to be put down, more than say Al Qarda or Daesh). But Republicans subscribe to a bootstraps mythology that’s about as stupid and deadly as putting a flat earther in charge of the FAA.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2019, 12:49:02 PM »
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Republicans on Capitol Hill say Donald Trump may be willing to cut Social Security and Medicare if he wins in 2020, reportedly describing the potential move as a “second-term project”.

Without names for the "Republicans" that heard Trump say this I'm not crediting this report.  This plays directly into a Democratic meme that honestly I have a hard timing believing any Republican would be stupid enough to touch.

In fact, Trump's literally on record multiple times saying he would not be doing this.

While it could be true, I'm putting this on my list of false flag propaganda until I see actual names on the record.

You'll note how the article pivots to naming names when it describes those politician's words, which leads an incautious reader to assume those are the persons who made the original claim.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2019, 01:13:53 PM »
Without names for the "Republicans" that heard Trump say this I'm not crediting this report.  This plays directly into a Democratic meme that honestly I have a hard timing believing any Republican would be stupid enough to touch.

Found this reference:

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Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told the Times that his party has discussed cutting Medicare and Social Security with Trump and said the president has expressed openness to the idea.

"We've brought it up with President Trump, who has talked about it being a second-term project," said Barrasso.

I assume that's good enough? Either way, Trump often entertains ideas that he ultimately does not embrace in policy, sometimes as a negotiating tactic. What he has said clearly here, is that he's not doing anything until 2021 at the earliest.

TheDeamon

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2019, 01:20:25 PM »
One of the easier fixes for Social security is remove the top-end cap on income that can be taxed by SS, while simultaneously placing caps("cuts") on the top end payouts from Social Security.

Neatly increasing the income that the SS trust fund has(and making those most able to afford it pay for it), while also reducing the amount of money flowing out of it.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2019, 01:25:59 PM »
Lest anyone forget, Trump already tried to cut Medicare.

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If you add up the proposed Medicare changes in President Trump’s 2020 budget, it looks like he would cut the program by $845 billion over the next decade. That’s generated outrage from Democrats, but a closer look suggests that the reductions are much smaller, most would affect providers rather than beneficiaries, and many recycle old ideas that have little chance of ever being adopted.

Make no mistake, the Trump budget is hardly senior-friendly. He’d freeze or reduce spending for many federal senior service programs—continuing a trend that has gone on for more than a decade. And his proposed cuts to Medicaid could hurt family caregivers of parents or younger relatives with disabilities. But the Medicare cuts? There is much less there than meets the eye.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget does a nice job walking through the math, and concludes that the net reduction in Medicare spending would be between $515 billion and $575 billion, not $845 billion. The White House projects that total Medicare spending over the next decade will top $10 trillion.

Forbes[/quote]

There are nuances to the plan, I won't belabor the fine points. Bottom line is that these were cuts to the budget, and that they would have unclear effects on access to services at best.

Grant

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2019, 01:38:04 PM »
This plays directly into a Democratic meme that honestly I have a hard timing believing any Republican would be stupid enough to touch.

I don't think we need names to acknowledge that reforming Medicare and Social Security has long been a dream goal of fiscal conservatives.  But it's always stayed a dream.  The probability that any reform could be enacted is low because of the points I made earlier that everyone wants to ignore. 

1.  Trump hasn't been re-elected yet. 

2.  We havn't seen any proposal yet, to see what is actually in it and what is proposed. 

3.  Democrats will probably still control the House. 


I underlined them for those of you who would like to ignore the main points, which support the idea that the chances of reforming medicare or social security remains low as of right now. 

So the only purpose behind any of this is to point at Republicans and say "look what these horrible people WANTto do", which is being done without actually seeing any proposals. 

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2019, 01:40:31 PM »
Thanks for the citation to Barrasso, every other "quote" on this seems to be Republicans that want to push the President to cut SS or Medicare expressing "hope" he will do so, or trying to force the issue.  Even the Barrasso quote reads to me like something that could easily have been an intentional misconstrue by Barrasso to try and box the President in on this.

In any event, it's not very substantive, it's pretty much just a report on a rumor that's being given legs because it serves a propaganda purpose for the left.

Crunch

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2019, 02:08:55 PM »
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1. Trump hasn't been re-elected yet. 

And right there is the whole point of the story. The NYT has made it very clear that they are now in the business of stopping Trump’s re-election (see story about leaked NYT meeting content from last week). This story is nothing but a propaganda piece designed to sway the election, it is fake news.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2019, 02:13:50 PM »
Sometimes it can be important to know what a leader wants to do, even if it doesn't look like they can right now - or even ever. Which includes buying Greenland.

Naturally such things are used to motivate donors, voters, and volunteers. It is the way of things.

Crunch

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2019, 03:04:28 PM »
Does Trump want to do this? Most (all?) of the comments I’ve seen from him contradict this.

No, sometimes it can be important to tell you a made up story that supports your confirmation bias so you’ll repeat it over and over and try to sway voters to a preferred position. It is the way of the New Yoor Times.

Grant

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2019, 04:22:44 PM »
Does Trump want to do this? Most (all?) of the comments I’ve seen from him contradict this.

Is this the same guy who comments that he wants to purchase Greenland or nuke hurricanes?  Why would you actually look at his comments to try and decide what he wants to do?  I'd sooner consult an augur.  See which way the geese are flying over the capitol, or consult the Sybilline Books. 

According to Forbes, the Yuugeness Administration has already attempted to reform Social Security and Medicaid.  He just couldn't get it by Congress.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardgleckman/2019/03/14/is-president-trump-really-proposing-to-cut-medicare-by-845-billion/#152cedd41d07

Not everything is FAKE NEWS!  A Republican President wanting to reform Social Security or Medicare/Medicaid is to be expected.  It's the norm. 

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2019, 04:33:47 PM »
Again?  The "Nuke Hurricanes" thing is, as breathlessly reported by people who promise they have sources that were at a meeting and who - wrote it down in their notes, totally true.  I mean it has been denied, there's no on the record quote, there's no recording, or really any evidence it happened, other than 2 journalists who promise they spoke to someone from the meeting, who wrote it in their notes.

Wow.  This one is probably just made up. 

On the otherhand, I'm pretty sure I talked to some who met with President Obama where he admitted he was born in Kenya and that he recorded it in his notes.  And I know someone else, who was in a meeting with Jerry Nadler where he admitted the whole Russian thing was a made up plot of the Clinton campaign and that he had no basis for continuing the Impeachment farce, I mean it's her notes from the meeting plain as day.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2019, 04:55:30 PM »
Is it really so farfetched? Couldn't picture Trump saying that? I could picture him saying it sarcastically, earnestly, or just to mess with people. That's the problem when so much crazy comes out of your mouth, it's pretty easy for people to make stuff up that's believable.

I couldn't say if this is overreach, misinformation, misquoting, or anything else. If it is a conspiracy, it wouldn't have worked on Cruz or Rubio because they haven't made a habit of saying ridiculous things.

TheDeamon

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2019, 05:22:40 PM »
Again?  The "Nuke Hurricanes" thing is, as breathlessly reported by people who promise they have sources that were at a meeting and who - wrote it down in their notes, totally true.  I mean it has been denied, there's no on the record quote, there's no recording, or really any evidence it happened, other than 2 journalists who promise they spoke to someone from the meeting, who wrote it in their notes.

I think there is a Disney "look into the future" video where that was suggested means of weather control. But you're talking 1950's or very early 60's.

Grant

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2019, 05:27:20 PM »
OK, Serati.  He didn't say he wanted to nuke hurricanes.  Want to know why it's believable that he could have?  Do I need to present a list of the other crazy stuff he's said?  Like windmills causing cancer?  When he said the Russia investigation was a coup attempt?  When he tweeted that Harry Reid was "thrown out" of office?  When he said the USSR was right to invade Afghanistan because they were sending terrorists into the Soviet Union?  When he said Russia and Syria were unhappy that the US was "leaving" Syria?  When he said he had higher poll numbers than Abraham Lincoln?! When he said "millions and millions of people" double vote in California?  When he said that the Japanese drop bowling balls on the hood of American cars and reject them if there is a dent?  When he said ice caps were at record levels?  When he said there had been no tax cuts since Reagan?  When he said he didn't know Steve Bannon before his run in 2016? 

That's just since he's been President! 

Remember when he said asbestos could have saved the World Trade Center?  Or that environmentally friendly lightbulbs cause cancer?  It's endless. 

ScottF

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2019, 05:34:06 PM »
OK, Serati.  He didn't say he wanted to nuke hurricanes.  Want to know why it's believable that he could have?  Do I need to present a list of the other crazy stuff he's said?  Like windmills causing cancer?  When he said the Russia investigation was a coup attempt?  When he tweeted that Harry Reid was "thrown out" of office?  When he said the USSR was right to invade Afghanistan because they were sending terrorists into the Soviet Union?  When he said Russia and Syria were unhappy that the US was "leaving" Syria?  When he said he had higher poll numbers than Abraham Lincoln?! When he said "millions and millions of people" double vote in California?  When he said that the Japanese drop bowling balls on the hood of American cars and reject them if there is a dent?  When he said ice caps were at record levels?  When he said there had been no tax cuts since Reagan?  When he said he didn't know Steve Bannon before his run in 2016? 

That's just since he's been President! 

Remember when he said asbestos could have saved the World Trade Center?  Or that environmentally friendly lightbulbs cause cancer?  It's endless.

I don’t have the time or interest in looking into these but that last one sounded familiar. Quick google search says it could be technically true, at least for CFL bulbs.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2019, 06:38:08 PM »
Trump's obsession with asbestos included this from 2012:

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If we didn’t remove incredibly powerful fire retardant asbestos & replace it with junk that doesn’t work, the World Trade Center would never have burned down.

Also, in his book in 97:

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“I believe that the movement against asbestos was led by the mob, because it was often mob-related companies that would do the asbestos removal. Great pressure was put on politicians, and as usual, the politicians relented.”

2005 in a Senate subcommittee:

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“A lot of people could say that if the World Trade Center had asbestos it would not have burned down, and it wouldn’t have melted, okay? A lot of people in my industry think asbestos is the greatest fireproofing material ever made.”

Magical asbestos.

Crunch

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2019, 07:11:56 PM »
Trump has also killed between 20 and 40 million people. It was on CNN this weekend, really.

You guys believe that too?

ScottF

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2019, 07:54:59 PM »
I saw that. The host just quietly sat there, no objections - quite astounding. It seems the only death we know of for certain will be that of CNN.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/08/25/psychiatrist_on_cnn_trump_may_be_responsible_for_millions_more_deaths_than_hitler_stalin_and_mao_combined.html

Grant

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2019, 08:43:51 PM »

 ::)

So lemme get this straight.  The President of the United States... says crazy stupid things...a whole list is presented...and the response to this... is to roll out another moron who says stupid stuff... and try to stretch this to mean that because one person says something stupid, what the first person said couldn't possibly be stupid or true? 

That's special. 

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2019, 10:12:13 AM »
Is it really so farfetched? Couldn't picture Trump saying that?

And that's exactly why its so dangerous.  You just endorsed the use of lies and propaganda because they could be true.  Congrats on contributing to the downfall of the country.

Lot's of things could be true but without evidence they shouldn't be reported.

And certainly rumors shouldn't be reported on the basis that they could be true.  Get a source on the record.

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I could picture him saying it sarcastically, earnestly, or just to mess with people.

I could too, yet it was reported as a statement in earnest.  It's beyond bizarre to me for a side that claims the problem with Trump is that he lies about everything to endorse lying in the other direction.

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I couldn't say if this is overreach, misinformation, misquoting, or anything else. If it is a conspiracy, it wouldn't have worked on Cruz or Rubio because they haven't made a habit of saying ridiculous things.

Sure it does.  It works on everyone on the right.  The left just has to play into one of their favorite memes and misconstrue or even make up something that sounds plausible that and that's anti-woman or racist.  It's going to be assumed to be true no matter the denials.  This is your future.

OK, Serati.  He didn't say he wanted to nuke hurricanes.  Want to know why it's believable that he could have?

Are you failing to parse the difference between believable he said it and published as news?  In what world is okay to publish this without evidence?  There's literally no way you can distinguish this "report" from something that's just made up, and that's exactly why it was written.  To pitch to an audience that will believe anything negative about Trump and then rebroadcast it in conversations with on the fence voters.

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Do I need to present a list of the other crazy stuff he's said?  Like windmills causing cancer?

That one was crazy.  It was self serving and dangerous to make that claim especially when you're just mad over aesthetics.

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When he said the Russia investigation was a coup attempt?

That's a fair interpretation.  Like it or not, that investigation was abuse from the start.  They used powers restricted to monitoring foreign agents to spy on a campaign, if the Republicans had done that the left would be burning the country down.  They had no probable cause that is necessary to violate the rights of American citizens and they didn't find any after two years of invasive and abusive investigation.  They never even found the foreign spy that could have justified a counter intelligence operation.

It was a coup attempt, it was just run by cowards who wanted to cover themselves in plausible deniability.

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When he tweeted that Harry Reid was "thrown out" of office?

Do you have an analytical dispute on this?  Reid was blamed for his parties loss of the Senate, was facing the very real prospect that he would be replaced as minority leader, and the race for his seat was expected to be one of the tightest in the country because of his loss of support at home.  I think most real time analysts viewed his retirement decision the same way they look at the Republican's who retired from the house, a politician that took his ball and went home cause he did not believe he could win.

Not much different than "thrown out," except to a literalist who wants to see an impeachment or recall or wait for the actual loss.

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When he said the USSR was right to invade Afghanistan because they were sending terrorists into the Soviet Union?

That seems like a layman's summary that skips a lot about why the USSR originally went in.  Do you recall the news that came out of the region back then?  There was a lot of terrorist activity there and in a couple of the Soviet Republics (Kazachstan, for example), related to the issue.  In the lovely cycle of attack and reprisal at some point one could get that impression.

For example, were we right to do the "surge" to combat terrorist activity in Afghanistan?  Or in Iraq?  One could look at that in the context of the moment and see it as a reasonable response to terrorist activity, or one could look pack to one of multiple points in the history of the region and recast it as continued western interference and illegitimate response to people fighting for their own country.

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When he said Russia and Syria were unhappy that the US was "leaving" Syria?

Not sure why you think this a lie rather than an opinion?  Can you clarify. 

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When he said he had higher poll numbers than Abraham Lincoln?!

You left out some context.  He only made the claim for "popular" and only to Republicans.  All the original fact checkers acknowledged that they weren't aware which poll he was looking at.

In any event, it's unlikely he beat Bush's all time high (98%) right after 9/11.  Polling for Lincoln would be non-scientific and not from any of the big names.  At the time though Trump's polling average was over 90% for Republicans and it's certainly possible he saw something that (but for Bush) would have made it appear that his statement was true.  Heck, for all I know his average poll number could in fact be the highest, most of the rest have flashes that go high and then averages that are much lower.

So did you just look at a liberal fact check?  Or did you take an honest look?  Do you have the same concern about the glowing terms that were just as inaccurate in which the Obama Presidency was often described?

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When he said "millions and millions of people" double vote in California?

Well he didn't say that millions did it in California.  He did certainly imply that millions and millions double voted, though it's not clear that that part of the quote is much more than a throw away (see below).  I find this one to be particularly troubling as I've noted repeatedly the US has no system that would catch intentional double voters, or voters engaging in warm body fraud with a colluding poll worker.  It's just a fact that in the mid terms CA changed their rules to allow ballot harvesting (which is a process that is completely prone to fraudulent voting abuse) and managed to flip multiple districts that were long held by Republicans through harvested ballots.

I think there is absolutely a question of the scale of voter fraud, and there is not a single study on this that's valid, as there is not a single study that has actual access to the real data on who voted each vote.

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In many places, like California, the same person votes many times. You probably heard about that. They always like to say 'oh that's a conspiracy theory.' Not a conspiracy theory, folks. Millions and millions of people.

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When he said that the Japanese drop bowling balls on the hood of American cars and reject them if there is a dent?

As this is striking similar to an actual test they run, where they appear to shoot an object that looks like a bowling ball onto the hood of a car, it's entirely possible he was repeating someone's propaganda piece that was attached to actual footage.  It's also possible that someone in the industry made the claim to him that in practice the rules have been enforced in such a manner.  I mean when you consider the purpose of that test (to protect pedestrian heads), and the way the results would have to be measured (by the force absorbed by the head versus the hood) it's entirely possible that if the "dent" is inadequate (because it didn't absorb enough force leaving the head more damaged) the care would be rejected.  In other words if the hood didn't dent enough it could be rejected.

Japan rejects a lot of American cars because they want higher safety standards after all.

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When he said ice caps were at record levels?

Pretty sure that there have been numerous reports (which Trump could have seen) of Ice caps in some places actually increasing.  Sometimes these are later debunked, sometimes not.  None of the fact checkers looked at it honestly, though they acknowledged they didn't know which Ice Caps Trump was talking about they failed to consider that in some cases what he said would be correct.  If a Dem had said this instead of a "Pants on Fire" it would have been some form of "True, but requires qualification."

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When he said there had been no tax cuts since Reagan?

Can you give me the quote?  Most of the quotes by Trump on taxes and Reagan about the size of the Tax cuts, and all of the write ups are completely misleading. 

There's a lot of truth to Trump's position that his tax cuts provided tax cuts to more taxpayers than anyone since Reagan's.  I've been through the math a lot of times and Trump's tax cuts were targeted at benefiting lower and middle class tax payers, which is not something that has been true of a lot of other tax cuts.

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When he said he didn't know Steve Bannon before his run in 2016?

That's a blatant misconstrue of a statement pushed by the NYT's.  "I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late. I had already beaten all the senators and all the governors, and I didn’t know Steve. I’m my own strategist, and it wasn’t like I was going to change strategies because I was facing crooked Hillary."

They pushed this was false because Trump had met Bannon years earlier and said he'd known him for years.  It's clear in context (or at least it would be for any one else you were evaluating without a partisan lense) that his quote above was about trust in his judgment and ability to rely on him in a campaign context, not about whether they'd ever met or even had a casual ongoing connection.

Fact is Trump has a tremendous about of connections to people going back decades that doesn't mean he "knows" well enough to trust their judgment in that situation.

So I'm kind of stuck here Grant, cause a lot of what you cited to is frankly crap on the lie meter.  This just goes to prove to me, once again, that propaganda works, it works on smart people, it works on the wary.  Flooding the airwaves with interpretations of disputable items is designed to allow cognitive dissonance to protect a false narrative.  No matter how many examples I can demonstrate are false or miscontrued (intentionally by the press) there's always more siting out there that you can switch you mental constructions to so that you don't have to question your underlying view point.

This is exactly why there's a tracker of "Trump's lies" that lists over 10k, most of which are not even wrong, there just things the trackers disagree with.  It's there to give you comfort that it's been "proven" without requiring you to do any of the mental work.  That's a big chunk of time for me to respond to what I expect is a throw away list you quickly gleaned but didn't research.  This is exactly why these lies are so effective and exactly why we should hold the media's feet to the fire when they spread them.

Fact is the media lies about what Trump says, they deliberately pull it out of context, they deliberately puff it up and ignore and even bury all contrary evidence.

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Remember when he said asbestos could have saved the World Trade Center?  Or that environmentally friendly lightbulbs cause cancer?  It's endless. 

I don't recall these.  Asbestos is a complicated product, that's been hard to replace because of it's specific characteristics.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2019, 12:01:19 PM »
Meanwhile you get things like this on CNN:

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"Trump is as destructive a person in this century as Hitler, Stalin, and Mao were in the last century. He may be responsible for many more million deaths than they were."

Live on air and unchallenged at the time.  Granted, got a pants on fire from Politifact after the fact.

Even if you want to posit that climate change will kill that many (and the evidence is not actually there), attributing an amount of climate change to Trump's policies is absurd.  I mean if you were being HONEST, in your evaluation Trump's trade war with China has caused the slowest growth in the Chinese economy in nearly 30 years.  That alone has probably "saved" more carbon off the Paris estimates and agreements than the entire negative trend by all of Europe.

So, quite literally, you should be thanking Trump if you believe in climate change and supporting even more aggressive anti-China policies.

TheDeamon

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #25 on: August 27, 2019, 01:36:13 PM »
Is it really so farfetched? Couldn't picture Trump saying that? I could picture him saying it sarcastically, earnestly, or just to mess with people. That's the problem when so much crazy comes out of your mouth, it's pretty easy for people to make stuff up that's believable.

Oh, like Sarah Palin can see Alaska from her back yard?

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2019, 01:43:02 PM »
Kind of like that, but not really. That obviously was satire, based on this well-known foolish statement:

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“They’re our next-door neighbors, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska”

As if being able to see Russia from part of your state qualifies you to speak about the geopolitical situation. That wasn't way off the crazy scale, but it was pretty stupid.

Nobody ever attributed that to her, but enough people found it believable that Snopes had to address it.

TheDeamon

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2019, 01:46:55 PM »
Kind of like that, but not really. That obviously was satire, based on this well-known foolish statement:

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“They’re our next-door neighbors, and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska”

As if being able to see Russia from part of your state qualifies you to speak about the geopolitical situation. That wasn't way off the crazy scale, but it was pretty stupid.

Nobody ever attributed that to her, but enough people found it believable that Snopes had to address it.

Uh, there have been polls carried out years later on that particular SNL Skit. A very large number of Democrats in particular continue to believe she actually said that. Even with sites like Snopes debunking it.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2019, 01:48:27 PM »
TheDrake, lot's of people attributed Tina Fey's line to Sarah.  That's exactly why it had to be addressed by Snopes.

But the whole issue there buries the reality.  Barack Obama had no more foreign political experience than Sarah Palin, and less executive experience.  The whole point of that focus on Palin's "inexperience" when she's one step from the office, while ignoring that Obama would be in the office was patently manipulated and offensive. 

In fact, Obama's lack of experience on that point turned out to be costly on a number of poorly implemented foreign policies, to the point where American influence was seen largely as a joke during his administration.  But hey we got the "right message" in believing that Palin's "lack of experience" was the real risk.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #29 on: August 27, 2019, 02:14:45 PM »
That's fine. He still wouldn't have had that quote attributed to him believably, because he was actually articulate and didn't say crazy things. During the election, he knew enough platitudes or stock phrases that he avoided saying things like that which would have been more damaging.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2019, 02:43:53 PM »
Yes and banana's are yellow, but what does that have to do with what I said.

The media message was not real.  Obama was less experienced - by far - than McCain, he was less experienced than Palin, yet that clever manipulation was designed to convince voters that Palin's lack of experience was the real risk.  It worked.

Wayward Son

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2019, 03:35:40 PM »
Meanwhile you get things like this on CNN:

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"Trump is as destructive a person in this century as Hitler, Stalin, and Mao were in the last century. He may be responsible for many more million deaths than they were."

Live on air and unchallenged at the time.  Granted, got a pants on fire from Politifact after the fact.

Even if you want to posit that climate change will kill that many (and the evidence is not actually there), attributing an amount of climate change to Trump's policies is absurd.  I mean if you were being HONEST, in your evaluation Trump's trade war with China has caused the slowest growth in the Chinese economy in nearly 30 years.  That alone has probably "saved" more carbon off the Paris estimates and agreements than the entire negative trend by all of Europe.

So, quite literally, you should be thanking Trump if you believe in climate change and supporting even more aggressive anti-China policies.

Oh, good.  Republican helps mitigate climate change by ruining economies.  That's a winning slogan if I ever heard one.  ;D

BTW, PolitiFact rated that comment, with predictable results.

Also, the host, Brian Stelter, agreed that he should have "interrupted after that line," but he said he was distracted at that moment and missed it.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2019, 05:43:52 PM »
Umm.. I specifically noted the Politifact rating.  No hiding the ball there.

I guess if you're naive you could choose to believe that neither Stelter nor any of the dozens of people involved in the live broadcast heard what their guest actually said, and none of those people fed it back to Stelter at break either.  That would raise a whole host of thoughts about competence in my book.  But why would you believe that?  Stelter's "explanation" is nakedly self-serving and never would have come about if he hadn't gotten criticized for it.

I'm finding it laughable how far reasonable people will go to defend open and blatant propaganda.  Kind of makes me wonder what you were harping about when you seemed outraged over "Trump's lies."?

And on the point on destroying the Chinese economy, I've pretty much openly advocated for that on every climate thread ever.  You could reduce US emissions to zero and with the Chinese plans (they are not going to slow the rate of increase until 2030 at the earliest - not the rate overall, the rate of increase, +10% one year, +12% more the next, +14% the next) and carbon emissions are still going to be increasing for decades.

There's no way to lie about this.  If you believe in carbon generated climate change, leaving Chinese manufacturing plans untouched is a death sentence for the planet.  Trump's trade war may be the only thing standing between you and the abyss.  Or are you renouncing the science on this?   Is it your new claim that Chinese carbon is magic carbon that's less damaging than US carbon?

Wayward Son

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2019, 05:48:03 PM »
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Trump's trade war may be the only thing standing between you and the abyss.

Well, then we're doomed.  Because that idiot doesn't believe is basic science, and will doubtlessly stop the war before winning it.  Because he's trying to accomplish one of his delusions (like buying Greenland  ::) ) rather than saving the world.  :(

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2019, 05:57:04 PM »
He's definitely doing it for his own purposes, or rather in my view, for the benefit of the people in this country.  That said, he's already returned manufacturing jobs to the US, and already pushed some manufacturing out of China.  The net Carbon effect of that is going to do more to save the world that almost all of the crying combined.

Wake up.  Feeling angst because of the fact that more US manufacturing which replaces China/third world manufacturing is better for the environment than virtually any climate agreement signed to date doesn't mean you should reject science and reality.

Why do you resort to sarcasm when presented with "inconvenient truths"?

Wayward Son

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2019, 06:14:24 PM »
What sarcasm?  Trump doesn't want to stop AGW.  He doesn't believe in AGW.  So the purpose of his tariffs are not to prevent worsening AGW.  It's a side-effect, an unintended consequence.  Once he's finished doing whatever he thinks he's doing (and I don't believe he knows what he's doing, regardless of what he thinks*), he'll stop.  And the unintended consequence will end there, too.

Meanwhile, others things that we should be doing are not being done, because he doesn't believe they are worth doing.  :'(

You can't rely on him solving global warming accidentally.  It's stupid to do so.  So if that is our only hope, then all hope is gone.

Fortunately, there is another hope, come Nov. 3 next year...


*How much can you trust a man who continually says that trade wars are easy to win?  What a maroon!  ::)

Pete at Home

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #36 on: August 27, 2019, 06:23:07 PM »
I mostly agree with the following.

...


And on the point on destroying the Chinese economy, I've pretty much openly advocated for that on every climate thread ever.  You could reduce US emissions to zero and with the Chinese plans (they are not going to slow the rate of increase until 2030 at the earliest - not the rate overall, the rate of increase, +10% one year, +12% more the next, +14% the next) and carbon emissions are still going to be increasing for decades.

There's no way to lie about this.  If you believe in carbon generated climate change, leaving Chinese manufacturing plans untouched is a death sentence for the planet.  Trump's trade war may be the only thing standing between you and the abyss

 I would prefer the following phrasing:
“If you believe that climate change primarily reflects CARBON EMISSIONS”, then leaving ...


TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2019, 07:08:44 PM »
You realize that Chinese manufacturing isn't actually moving to the US, don't you? It's going to Vietnam, Bangladesh and a bunch of other places that aren't as expensive. It's actually been happening for a while as China moves up the food chain, it's just accelerating now. I don't know where they are on the clean energy spectrum, however.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2019, 08:56:08 AM »
Then there's this disturbing new report on climate change. https://babylonbee.com/news/scientists-climate-change-killed-us-years-ago-and-the-trump-presidency-is-some-sort-of-lost-final-season-situation

You realize that Chinese manufacturing isn't actually moving to the US, don't you? It's going to Vietnam, Bangladesh and a bunch of other places that aren't as expensive. It's actually been happening for a while as China moves up the food chain, it's just accelerating now. I don't know where they are on the clean energy spectrum, however.

Actually it's way more complicated than that.  Yes some is moving to other third world locations, though there's a lot of industry news on how that is not going smoothly, however, some of it is in fact moving into the US to immunize itself from these risks.  In any event, more first world manufacturing is a net good if it replaces any third world manufacturing or puts any third world manufacturing out of business.  I'm still an advocate for environmental tariffs placed on all products produced in polluting factories.  There should never be a price incentive to buy products that are more polluting than they have to be.

It's not a net good if the manufacturing growth is in addition to rather than a replacement of polluting factories.  But that's exactly the point, China's growth is slower than it's been in 3 decades, I've seen no evidence of a "boom" in third world production that replaces that, and we've added more manufacturing here than at anytime since the 70's.  Ergo - net effect is likely to be better than the Paris deal and we should encourage more of it.

I'd be happy to agree to work with China and the third world to create better factories there, but it has to be an absolute condition that China ceases all theft of intellectual property and agrees to fairly compete.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2019, 08:58:49 AM »
I'm not against the concept. I'm all in on exposing externalities to companies. Foreign and domestic. Or did you just want to shut down China, and not CO2 producing power plants in the states?

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #40 on: August 28, 2019, 09:03:08 AM »

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #41 on: August 28, 2019, 09:08:39 AM »
Look, point where ever you want TheDrake, China's commitment to Paris is to kill the planet with new carbon.  You can not legitimately believe in climate change resulting from carbon and support the Chinese plan.  All plants in the US are held to higher environmental standards than any plants in China, and we are ever seeking to raise that high bar.

There is absolutely no question - and I mean zero - that doing anything that causes US manufacturers to export production out of the US is a net harm to the environment.  That includes, unfortunately, increasing the cost of power to non-competitive levels.  So balance it with economic benefit to ensure the net result is the best on a global basis.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #42 on: August 28, 2019, 09:39:51 AM »
Look, point where ever you want TheDrake, China's commitment to Paris is to kill the planet with new carbon.  You can not legitimately believe in climate change resulting from carbon and support the Chinese plan.  All plants in the US are held to higher environmental standards than any plants in China, and we are ever seeking to raise that high bar.

There is absolutely no question - and I mean zero - that doing anything that causes US manufacturers to export production out of the US is a net harm to the environment.  That includes, unfortunately, increasing the cost of power to non-competitive levels.  So balance it with economic benefit to ensure the net result is the best on a global basis.

When you're ready to match China's per capita carbon here in the US, I'm all ears. Until then stop making them out for being villians for wanting to match what we're already doing.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #43 on: August 28, 2019, 10:02:19 AM »
On the other other hand, this is the kind of thing that is quite awesome.  https://www.foxnews.com/auto/electric-dump-truck-gravity

When you're ready to match China's per capita carbon here in the US, I'm all ears. Until then stop making them out for being villians for wanting to match what we're already doing.

Lol, you are not serious on the question.  Per capita measures are a way to justify destruction of the planet in pursuit of economic justice while pretending you care about the environment.

It's just a fact that if you believe in the irreversibility of climate change, China's Paris commitment is a death sentence.  And if China raises the standard of living its populace without moving to a US standard of environmental production per unit or per measure of production they will literally be producing more carbon than everyone else in history.

I can't take you seriously on an environmental question if you cite to per capita again.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2019, 10:06:16 AM »
Not at all. It's a way of saving the planet by stop being a bunch of greedy wasteful bitches while China is mostly peasants without reliable electricity.

Please justify why we should be able to burn 2.5x more carbon per resident than China. I don't disagree that China should stop in their tracks, just that we should drop 3/5 of our use for parity.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #45 on: August 28, 2019, 10:24:32 AM »
Cutting US production doesn't remotely address "per capita" concerns and it actively destroys the planet  to cut production in areas that generate the least production per unit.  Effectively we have an advantage in producing products the world needs at the lowest pollution burden and you're lying to yourself if you think there is any environmental gain in not using that.

As far as a wasteful lifestyle?  Sure if the whole world is going to consume at US levels it's gonna burn if we don't radically limit any excess pollution in production.   Again a direct argument for excessive penalties on polluting production.  If you want to argue that US consumers be barred from buying things, or mandate that AC settings can not go below 84, or heat about 60, that'd make a "per capita" difference in a meaningful way. 

In the meantime, you're pulling the statistic because it sounds - to the unexamined - like its a reasonable one, when in fact it's just a deceptive lie. 

I don't give too *censored*s about "per capita" when I can directly measure the pollution per unit of production.

TheDrake

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2019, 10:42:47 AM »
So your view is the US should get to live the good life while the Chinese sacrifice for the sake of the planet?

While you actively oppose the US sacrificing for the sake of the planet?

Seems pretty selfish and inefficent. If you were in China, you think that would be your view? Westerners can enjoy AC and private automobiles while you swelter and take public transit?

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An MIT class has estimated the carbon emissions of Americans in a wide variety of lifestyles -- from the homeless to multimillionaires, from Buddhist monks to soccer moms -- and compared them to those of other nations. The somewhat disquieting bottom line is that in the United States, even the people with the lowest usage of energy are still producing, on average, more than double the global per-capita average.

But the "floor" below which nobody in the U.S. can reach, no matter a person's energy choices, turned out to be 8.5 tons, the class found. That was the emissions calculated for a homeless person who ate in soup kitchens and slept in homeless shelters.

The analysis was carried out by Gutowski and 21 students in his 2007 class, "Environmentally benign design and manufacturing." They derived a system for making such comparisons, which they call ELSA--environmental life style analysis.

You can scoff all you want about my focus on per capita, but to me fairness dictates that every human on earth should have an equal allotment of carbon output. I don't see how else it could be.

link

There's no need to raise a spectre of a thermostat gestapo. Just add a carbon tax to everything, and the market sorts out. Some people will still be wasteful, partly because they can afford it. But others when they see their AC bill go up by 40% might rethink whether they want to set the stat 2 degrees higher, install better insulation, or set a timer to let the temp go up during the day when they are not home.

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #47 on: August 28, 2019, 11:16:16 AM »
So your view is the US should get to live the good life while the Chinese sacrifice for the sake of the planet?

There's nothing about China's environmental pollution that is going to provide the "good life" to their people.  You said it yourself, they have a low per capita specifically because they keep the vast majority of their people living the life of serfs.

Nothing about your plan to cut our production changes the lifestyles of either group of people.  It's literally unrelated, and a direct lie to pretend otherwise.

This is literally basic science and math.

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While you actively oppose the US sacrificing for the sake of the planet?

I'm just calling out the lie that the US "sacrificing" by producing less in the environmentally cleanest factories on earth so that China can produce more in the dirtiest is  "for the sake of the planet."  It's a false statement.  It's a lie.

The vast majority of the history of cleaner and more environmentally friendly production is the direct result of innovation in the US, as a direct result of our conscious choices, many of which have been great, but some of which were ill considered.  Specifically it was ill considered to raise the costs so high that it became the better "greedy" decision to close clean US factories and open up dirty Chinese ones.

In reality you seem to be advocating that the US suffering is more important than saving the planet.

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Seems pretty selfish and inefficent. If you were in China, you think that would be your view? Westerners can enjoy AC and private automobiles while you swelter and take public transit?

Are the people in China at risk of the dangers of Climate change?  Or are you no longer of the view that they are cataclysmic and irreversible?  The peasants in China don't have the resources to protect themselves from the ravages of such changes, meanwhile the rich westerners will.

So your argument is that we should ignore facts because of emotions?  Again there is absolutely nothing about production that relates to what you are complaining about - which is excessive first world consumption (or at least that's how I take your argument, since you seem to be inconsistent on whether you want to tear the first world down or lift the third world up). 

It's just a fact that if we need to produce more to provide for a better lifestyle global, Chinese production is even more unsustainable.   Are you advocating that the world consume less and that all westerners redistribute everything to provide for a shared slightly better than peasant lifestyle globally?  Or are you advocating for bringing the rest of the world up significantly, while freezing in place or slightly reducing the western life style?  Or something in between?

Cause the reality is your position DOESN'T RESULT IN OR SUPPORT ANY OF THOSE ALTERNATIVES.

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You can scoff all you want about my focus on per capita, but to me fairness dictates that every human on earth should have an equal allotment of carbon output. I don't see how else it could be.

Lol.  So we should ignore "aggregate carbon" and all science on climate change, because "fairness."

In fact, if you were being sensible you'd determine per capita carbon usage based on lifestyle, not production.  Production should literally be measured on efficiency.  You can make a redistribution argument for consumption on fairness, but to make it on production is just literal stupidity. 

You're actually arguing that we should favor 4 times the aggregate carbon generation than the world has to bear if we produced everything in the cleanest places, notwithstanding that has ZERO IMPACT on the fairness of how that production is consumed.

So again, don't lie to yourself.  If you're making a "per capita" argument, you are directly arguing that your sense of fairness is more important than the environment and that you either don't believe in climate science, or just believe its worth letting the world burn to bring down the west a notch.

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There's no need to raise a spectre of a thermostat gestapo. Just add a carbon tax to everything, and the market sorts out.

Great idea, tie Chinese tariffs on production into the carbon used in producing their products (which I already suggested), and including an adjustment for any non-taxed carbon products they consume locally but refuse to apply the tax to, and put those dirty plants out of business.  Of course, this will do ZERO to address the concern you are raising about distribution as those in the west will be able to afford the carbon tax on their lifestyle and the Chinese poor will never be able to buy even a basic commodity again.

However, there has yet to be a single version of a carbon tax that's been anything but a government exercise in graft, and I don't expect any such system to be set up in any sensible way.  For example, every system to date has exempted China and the third world, which makes it literally counterproductive and damaging to the environment on the whole.

TheDeamon

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #48 on: August 28, 2019, 11:29:37 AM »
The issue with the per capita model on CO2 usage in the United States(or 1st world in general) and developing nations is you DO hit into the question of "Is this about CO2, or about social issues?"

Yes, as people start improving their quality of life, their CO2 output will both change(less particulate) and increase CO2 at present.

Encouraging production to shift to less CO2 efficient areas that also pollute more in other ways is not an improvement. That production capacity move, while a "good" for that area where it potentially improves local QOL, it also is a net harm (if you believe in AGW) because it accelerates their own use of CO2 because you just improved their QOL and increased their buying power.

If you're serious about CO2 being an existential threat to the human race/society, then "QOL concerns" in the third world go out the window, and you stop anything which might further accelerate CO2 emission growth.

Instead, the same people predicting the planet is going to be destroyed by CO2 are deliberately turning a blind eye to the biggest growth areas for CO2 Emissions...

Seriati

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Re: Trump May be Willing to Cut SS and Medicare
« Reply #49 on: August 28, 2019, 11:39:00 AM »
The only thing I'd add, is there's nothing stopping the goals of redistribution being applied after the production is increased where it's cleanest.  In fact, if we're serious about increasing the quality of life globally, the only answer can be do so with the cleanest production possible.

The fact is, environmentalism has been co-opted by people who's goals are economic redistribution not saving the planet from environmental destruction and that's exactly why their solutions are all counterproductive or ineffective.