Author Topic: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:  (Read 122518 times)

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1500 on: September 18, 2020, 09:18:53 AM »
Donald,

Regarding your statement;  : ”But we know that the virus did not spread to a sufficient number of people for herd immunity to kick in.“,

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/unprecedented-nationwide-blood-studies-seek-track-us-coronavirus-spread

I do not think “we know” anything of the sort. Some people are serious about getting an answer to that question though. It is important to know.

Come on man. Remember what we're discussing. The disappearance of SARS 17 years ago. You claimed it wasn't done through isolating and stopping the spread of the virus.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1501 on: September 18, 2020, 09:29:13 AM »
Define "a few weeks" please?

Considering we're nearly 6 months into this at this point, "a few weeks" happened a long time ago
My post was a response to Barr's melodramatic characterization of restrictions, where in comparison to everything except for slavery, it is worse.  There are no places currently in the USA that are locked down in the way that New York was for only several weeks, and there are many places in the USA where no effective lockdown was ever implemented.  And that is reasonable - there were some places where the viral load didn't require such restrictions back in April or May.

But there is no way that that those levels of restrictions, the ones that have been in place for 6 months, could conceivably be compared with, say, the dispossession of first nations people, or with generations of Jim Crow laws.  So he must have meant something else, no?  Otherwise, absolutely, the level of restrictions being complained about is pure snowflakery.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1502 on: September 18, 2020, 08:43:26 PM »
Y-22,

“Come on man. Remember what we're discussing. The disappearance of SARS 17 years ago. You claimed it wasn't done through isolating and stopping the spread of the virus.”

Are you channeling Uncle Joe? “Come on man“ yourself. I am just waiting for you to challenge me to push-ups, and an I.Q. test. I stand by my statement that you have no factual basis for asserting that the SARS-CoV-1 virus was driven to extinction by the actions of public health officials. The logic of that position is patently tautological, and those more humbled by an understanding of the complexities involved have stated as much. :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/the-mysterious-disappearance-of-the-first-sars-virus-and-why-we-need-a-vaccine-for-the-current-one-but-didnt-for-the-other-137583

I found it interesting that this link cites a 20% genomic difference between SARS-CoV-2, and SARS-CoV-1, rather the 5.6% difference that I came across originally. It is the second time that I saw this figure in the literature, but I assumed the first appearance was a typographical error. Evidently it is not. If those disparities in genetic difference calculations come from the current range of SARS-CoV-2 strain mutations, and its parent SARS-CoV-1, then genomic drift rates are much higher than I thought, ergo; this thing is much more subject to changes in clinical disease expression, and symptomatic diagnosis.

You level of certainty on all things Trump is somewhat amusing, so I am not particularly put-off. For example, something as, putatively, serious as an ongoing shortage of N-95 masks draws your ire. That is, until your assumption is revealed as total garbage. You claim to be concerned about dying from COVID-19, I therefore expect some sort of acknowledgement for making these, rare masks, available to you at a pre-pandemic discount. You are welcome.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 08:52:22 PM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1503 on: September 18, 2020, 09:00:08 PM »
From that link:
Quote
The most important difference is that contact tracing – or finding out who was exposed to someone infected with the virus – was relatively easy: Everyone had severe symptoms in two to three days.

And

Quote
Many factors were involved in the end of SARS-CoV-1, perhaps including summer weather, and certainly strict quarantine of all those who had contact with infected individuals, but we don’t really know why the epidemic ended.
Well, he's being more than a little wishy washy, since he's actually stated that the most important difference was that contact tracing was easy, and that strict quarantine of infected individuals was possible.

But others are much less equivocal:
Quote
Why did the original SARS epidemic come to end? Well, SARS-CoV-1 did not burn itself out. Rather, the outbreak was largely brought under control by simple public health measures. Testing people with symptoms (fever and respiratory problems), isolating and quarantining suspected cases, and restricting travel all had an effect.

SARS-CoV-1 was most transmissible when patients were sick, and so by isolating those with symptoms, you could effectively prevent onward spread. Nearly everybody on the planet would remain susceptible to SARS in the decades following its disappearance.

Enter COVID-19

It is clear that our response to SARS-CoV-1 led to the extinction of that lineage of viruses in humans. But we also knew that very similar viruses continued to exist in bats. It's possible that a very closely related SARS-like virus could emerge in the not-too-distant future.

Or here:
Quote
The SARS outbreak, which reached 29 countries, was ultimately contained using traditional public health measures, such as testing, isolating patients and screening people at airports and other places where they might spread the virus, Gostin said. The strategy is simple: If sick people can be stopped from infecting healthy people, the disease will eventually die off.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1505 on: September 18, 2020, 09:05:26 PM »
You level of certainty on all things Trump is somewhat amusing, so I am not particularly put-off. For example, something as, putatively, serious as an ongoing shortage of N-95 masks draws your ire. That is, until your assumption is revealed as total garbage. You claim to be about concerned about dying from COVID-19, I therefore expect some sort of acknowledgement for making these, rare masks, available to you at a pre-pandemic discount. You are welcome.

You mean a link to a site (with an F BBB rating) selling counterfeit N95's? No thanks.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88419
Quote
Nurses are increasingly being forced to reuse N-95 masks, sometimes for five days or longer, and growing numbers of nurses said they feel unsafe reusing masks even after they were decontaminated, according to the latest in a series of nursing surveys.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-n95-masks-still-difficult-123039409.html
Quote
Still, hospitals and other entities, including state governments, are having nearly as much difficulty obtaining N95s as they did early in the pandemic. The scarcity has not eased. The N95 black market is still going strong. States are still bidding against one another for mask supplies. Counterfeits and substandard masks are still being sold as the real thing (although 3M has worked hard to rid the market of bogus 3M masks). The only reason this isn’t a bigger issue is that the influx of Covid-19 hospital patients has eased. But if the pandemic has a second wave in the fall, as many fear, it’s going to get ugly again.

https://marker.medium.com/how-3m-gambled-its-reputation-on-the-n95-mask-e266a2fd8933
Quote
The extreme shortage of N95 masks is ongoing and is one of many reasons the pandemic is raging on with no clear end in sight. The shortage could well become catastrophic during a pandemic second wave this fall or winter.

But sure there is no n95 shortage. Keep telling yourself otherwise because you found a few knock offs floating around on the internet.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1506 on: September 18, 2020, 09:08:56 PM »
Y-22,

“Come on man. Remember what we're discussing. The disappearance of SARS 17 years ago. You claimed it wasn't done through isolating and stopping the spread of the virus.”

Are you channeling Uncle Joe? “Come on man“ yourself. I am just waiting for you to challenge me to push-ups, and an I.Q. test. I stand by my statement that you have no factual basis for asserting that the SARS-CoV-1 virus was driven to extinction by the actions of public health officials. The logic of that position is patently tautological, and those more humbled by an understanding of the complexities involved have stated as much. :

And yet you responded to a statement about SARS 17 years ago with antibody studies about covid today. That's what I'm saying come on man about. You made one claim then responded as if I were crazy with evidence about completely different topic.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1507 on: September 18, 2020, 10:08:59 PM »
Y-22,

Your tendency to be non-equivocal, minus much to back up your opinion, in a weakness not a strength.

The logic of the position that you have taken is bad, and emphatic certainty will not improve your argument regarding the cause of SARS-CoV-1 extinction. You treat this issue as though it is part of a religious catechism.

Further, Industrial Products.com does not have a “f” BBB rating, it is not rated at all. The BBB does have this information on file for Industrial Products : “31 total complaints in the last 3 years of those, 27 complaints were closed in last 12 months.”

The N-95 that they sell is not a “knock off”, but don’t let a lack of direct knowledge slow you down. I assume that you are using a surgical mask, or worse, a homemade cloth mask, right? How does your conscience tolerate such an act of social irresponsibility? (for clarity, this is sarcasm)

“And yet you responded to a statement about SARS 17 years ago with antibody studies about covid today. That's what I'm saying come on man about. You made one claim then responded as if I were crazy with evidence about completely different topic.”

Let me get this straight; we are discussing viral genetics, specifically as applied to the SARS-COV strains, and you prefer older, and non-germane references as opposed to the current scientific understanding? I may get something wrong in interpreting this stuff, but you don’t have a chance of getting it right with your approach.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 10:12:48 PM by noel c. »

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1508 on: September 18, 2020, 11:06:51 PM »
Further, Industrial Products.com does not have a “f” BBB rating, it is not rated at all. The BBB does have this information on file for Industrial Products : “31 total complaints in the last 3 years of those, 27 complaints were closed in last 12 months.”

Are you just seeing how much you can lie without everyone noticing it? That isn't even the site you linked to. It was industrial safety products . com and it does have an F rating.

https://www.bbb.org/us/fl/miami/profile/industrial-supply/industrial-safety-products-0633-90356486/overview-of-bbb-ratings

Even if the site you linked to didn't stink of a scam it still doesn't make the n95 shortage disappear. Its well documented in numerous articles I linked to. n95's aren't available on amazon nor do any results turn up when you search for n95 masks on google and click on shopping.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1509 on: September 18, 2020, 11:14:24 PM »
Y-22,

Your tendency to be non-equivocal, minus much to back up your opinion, in a weakness not a strength.

The logic of the position that you have taken is bad, and emphatic certainty will not improve your argument regarding the cause of SARS-CoV-1 extinction. You treat this issue as though it is part of a religious catechism.

Oh, now you have shown me the error of my ways  ::). I don't know why I would accept the prevailing opinion almost every epidemiologist who has studied the spread and containment of SARS. You clearly have all the evidence that the virus miraculously mutated in such a way to become non virulent but still provide immunity to the virulent form. The virus mutated into a perfect vaccine. You have absolutely nothing to back up your theory. The article you linked to about virulence and mutations was about when viruses jump species. It didn't do anything to support your claim.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1510 on: September 18, 2020, 11:21:12 PM »
“And yet you responded to a statement about SARS 17 years ago with antibody studies about covid today. That's what I'm saying come on man about. You made one claim then responded as if I were crazy with evidence about completely different topic.”

Let me get this straight; we are discussing viral genetics, specifically as applied to the SARS-COV strains, and you prefer older, and non-germane references as opposed to the current scientific understanding? I may get something wrong in interpreting this stuff, but you don’t have a chance of getting it right with your approach.

Well when we were specifically discussing the disappearance of SARS 17 years ago and you respond insultingly that I'm delusional and am ignoring evidence and your evidence is a link to population level data of covid-19. Then I say come on man, keep the discussion straight. If you want to discuss the spread of covid-19, then discuss that. But don't respond to a statement about SARS like it was a statement about covid.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1511 on: September 19, 2020, 02:31:56 AM »
Y-22,

“Well when we were specifically discussing the disappearance of SARS 17 years ago and you respond insultingly that I'm delusional and am ignoring evidence and your evidence is a link to population level data of covid-19. Then I say come on man, keep the discussion straight. If you want to discuss the spread of covid-19, then discuss that. But don't respond to a statement about SARS like it was a statement about covid.”

I do not intend this to be insulting; SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is a disease caused by more than one virus. I was talking about the extinction of the specific 2003 virus responsible for that SARS outbreak. To support my assertion, I made an argument that biological mechanisms of viral evolution, and transmutation, of SARS-CoV into intermediates culminating in SARS-CoV-2, become central to the discussion of Trump’s virus “disappearance” claim. I agree with him, viruses do “disappear“, and appear with apparent spontaneity, albeit not “miraculously”. They certainly do not disappear through the efforts of self-congratulatory public health officials claiming responsibility for worldwide SARS-CoV extinction. That purported achievement is grandiosely delusional in my opinion.

Having said that, I grant that some viruses clades can be effectively eliminated in nature, as you pointed out, through coordinated worldwide efforts. Smallpox would be an example. Even then it took 181 years of focused inoculation drives from 1796 to 1977, to achieve the goal, and there are two narrow conditions that made eradication possible, to wit;

- Humans are the only known possible reservoir of the historical poxvirus variations.
- Inoculation is simple, certain, and yields long lasting immunity.

As an aside, there remain closely-related animal poxvirus strains that can infect people. If one of these were to adapt specifically to humans, as SARS-CoV-19 did, I would not consider it miraculous, and the World Health Organization would be eating crow over its 1980 declaration of smallpox eradication. I am not fatalistic, just realistic. In a fight with nature our best efforts can come to nothing. 
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 02:34:53 AM by noel c. »

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1512 on: September 19, 2020, 10:02:31 PM »
Y-22,

“Well when we were specifically discussing the disappearance of SARS 17 years ago and you respond insultingly that I'm delusional and am ignoring evidence and your evidence is a link to population level data of covid-19. Then I say come on man, keep the discussion straight. If you want to discuss the spread of covid-19, then discuss that. But don't respond to a statement about SARS like it was a statement about covid.”

I do not intend this to be insulting; SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is a disease caused by more than one virus. I was talking about the extinction of the specific 2003 virus responsible for that SARS outbreak.

And yet you responded to a statement about SARS 2003 with data about covid-19.

And also you seem to be the only person using SARS as a general diagnosis for multiple viruses.

Quote
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003. The illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained.

Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. The content in this website was developed for the 2003 SARS epidemic. But some guidelines are still being used. Any new SARS updates will be posted on this website.
https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Quote
An epidemic of SARS affected 26 countries and resulted in more than 8000 cases in 2003. Since then, a small number of cases have occurred as a result of laboratory accidents or, possibly, through animal-to-human transmission (Guangdong, China).

https://www.who.int/ith/diseases/sars/en/

Every reference I've seen to SARS, is a specific reference to the 2003 outbreak. It is a type of coronavirus and I suppose other coronaviruses could cause similar symptoms but the CDC and WHO both seem to reference the disease SARS as a product of that particular viral outbreak. It's not used as a general diagnosis for respiratory illnesses.

Quote
To support my assertion, I made an argument that biological mechanisms of viral evolution, and transmutation, of SARS-CoV into intermediates culminating in SARS-CoV-2, become central to the discussion of Trump’s virus “disappearance” claim. I agree with him, viruses do “disappear“, and appear with apparent spontaneity, albeit not “miraculously”. They certainly do not disappear through the efforts of self-congratulatory public health officials claiming responsibility for worldwide SARS-CoV extinction. That purported achievement is grandiosely delusional in my opinion.

Viruses can and do mutate and jump between animals and humans from time to time. That initial mutation causes the virus to appear spontaneously. There is no evolutionary mechanism (short of herd immunity) that can cause a virus that has spread to thousands of hosts to spontaneously mutate into something non-virulent.

The achievement is real. There are still coronaviruses similar that live in various animals and the virus could mutate in such a way to jump from animal to human again with similar consequences. But the coronavirus that caused SARS was eliminated in the human population, at least for now. If the achievement weren't real, people would be getting sick. The virus would be spreading and people would be dying. The coronavirus that caused SARS didn't spread that easily and was most infectious when people had serious symptoms, so it was much, much easier to control than covid-19.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1513 on: September 20, 2020, 03:42:26 AM »
Y-22,

“Are you just seeing how much you can lie without everyone noticing it? That isn't even the site you linked to. It was industrial safety products . com and it does have an F rating.

Yup, that site does have an F rating. Wrong site does not equal “lie”, projecting are we?

“Even if the site you linked to didn't stink of a scam it still doesn't make the n95 shortage disappear. Its well documented in numerous articles I linked to. n95's aren't available on amazon nor do any results turn up when you search for n95 masks on google and click on shopping.”

I never told you that I bought these from Amazon.

“And yet you responded to a statement about SARS 2003 with data about covid-19. And also you seem to be the only person using SARS as a general diagnosis for multiple viruses.”

SARS-CoV-2 is a related closely enough to SARS-CoV-1 to draw reasonable comparisons depending upon what is being looked at. What specifically are you having problems with?

“Every reference I've seen to SARS, is a specific reference to the 2003 outbreak. It is a type of coronavirus and I suppose other coronaviruses could cause similar symptoms but the CDC and WHO both seem to reference the disease SARS as a product of that particular viral outbreak. It's not used as a general diagnosis for respiratory illnesses.“

COVID ((coronavirus disease)-19 is caused by “SARS(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)-CoV(COVID)-2”, and “SARS(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)-CoV(COVID)” appeared in 2003. The nomenclature pretty much says it all. Both are diseases caused by a corona virus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome.

“Viruses can and do mutate and jump between animals and humans from time to time. That initial mutation causes the virus to appear spontaneously.”

This is encouraging. You mean they “magically appear”?

“There is no evolutionary mechanism (short of herd immunity) that can cause a virus that has spread to thousands of hosts to spontaneously mutate into something non-virulent.”

No, you are wrong. I already mentioned the three general mechanisms of viral genetic drift, to wit; spontaneous mutation, recombination, and reassortment. All that is needed for a mutation to become fixed is conferral of a reproductive advantage. Here is a link if you want a more detailed description of the phenomenon you say do not exist.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/virus-mutation

You are wrong about viral mutation versus virulence variability also. The flu pandemic of 1918 is “extinct” as a discrete specie, but its genetic legacy is still with us. I gave you a full article on virulence, and inter-specie host mutation earlier, but I think that it went over your head. Here is a crayon version from the Washington Post. :

“But the strand of the flu didn’t just disappear. The (1918) influenza virus continuously mutated, passing through humans, pigs and other mammals. The pandemic-level virus morphed into just another seasonal flu. Descendants of the 1918 H1N1 virus make up the influenza viruses we’re fighting today.“

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/01/1918-flu-pandemic-end/%3foutputType=amp

“The achievement is real.”

Yes, you keep saying that, but your “evidence” remains a matter of personal faith, or revelation. Only the human smallpox virus clade has, or can be, declared “eliminated” through human intervention. That is because it was so specialized as a human pathogen that no other animal could act as a host. Notwithstanding, as also pointed out earlier, even that 181 year “achievement” comes with an asterix. The SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 have, by contrast, been found occurring naturally in Horseshoe bats, Masked palm civets, and Racoon dogs, additionally; it was discovered that people could infect their pet dogs, cats, and hamsters.

“... still coronaviruses similar that live in various animals and the virus could mutate in such a way to jump from animal to human again with similar consequences. But the coronavirus that caused SARS was eliminated”

Well, at least some valid information is sticking in your head. Repetition will not help you on your conclusion though. I assume that you mean “eliminated” through human intervention? No, all you can say is that SARS-CoV-1 is not currently active in human hosts.

“... in the human population, at least for now. If the achievement weren't real, people would be getting sick. The virus would be spreading and people would be dying. The coronavirus that caused SARS didn't spread that easily and was most infectious when people had serious symptoms, so it was much, much easier to control than covid-19.

Really? “The virus would be spreading“, and ”people would be getting sick“, but people are not dying from the 1918 H1N1 virus either. Why?

“Oh, now you have shown me the error of my ways. I don't know why I would accept the prevailing opinion almost every epidemiologist who has studied the spread and containment of SARS.“

You are being equivocal regarding the 2003 outbreak. “Containment” is not the same as “extinction”. I can see epidemiological support for the former. The latter is your own fabrication, offered as “proof”, based upon a negative.

“You clearly have all the evidence that the virus miraculously mutated in such a way to become non virulent but still provide immunity to the virulent form.“

There the prophet of doom goes with the “miraculous“ again. The myraid of naturally occurring attenuated viruses actually do precisely what you are calling a miracle, to wit.; confer immunity against virulent forms through spontaneous mutation, recombination, or reassortment. The same principle is employed in the lab to manufacture live virus vaccines, minus spontaneous mutation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3314307/

“The virus mutated into a perfect vaccine. You have absolutely nothing to back up your theory.”

No, you have the relevant citations. SARS-CoV-1 could now be non-virulent, and confer immunity, or not. Alternatively, it could still be fully virulent to humans, and just be hanging out in a bat-cave waiting to show up in a Chinese wet market. I am pretty confident that it did for some period, and has become “extinct” given the rapid mutation rate of corona viruses. Natural evolutionary mechanisms have had too much time to work on the original genome.

“The article you linked to about virulence and mutations was about when viruses jump species. It didn't do anything to support your claim.”

I am purposely avoiding the possibility of inflicting insult given your sensitivity. Do you understand what viral genetic recombination means, and the role animal intermediaries have upon viral evolution?

« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 03:49:16 AM by noel c. »

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1514 on: September 20, 2020, 04:48:55 AM »
Y-22,

The article that I linked on attenuated viruses was strong on vaccine development, but weak on naturally occurring virus attenuation.

This link addresses more directly vaccine and virulence attenuation as they relate specifically to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.15039

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1515 on: September 20, 2020, 07:58:58 AM »
Y-22,

“n95's aren't available on amazon nor do any results turn up when you search for n95 masks on google and click on shopping.”

Per your difficulty in acquiring the N-95; I get them cheaper, but $7.80/Mask on Amazon is not a bad price. They are stocked for immediate shipment. In the unlikely event that they run out, I can hook you up with my supplier.  Short of placing the order on your behalf, I don’t know how else to help you.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B087D8W65K/ref=mp_s_a_1_12?ie=UTF8&qid=1600602580&sr=1-12&pi=AC_SX236_SY340_QL65
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 08:05:33 AM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1516 on: September 20, 2020, 12:58:39 PM »
Quote
We're going to have a victory on November 3rd the likes of which you've never seen. Now, we're counting on the federal court system to make it so that we can actually have an evening where we know who wins. Not where the votes are going to be counted a week later or two weeks later.
I'm pretty sure that Trump is unaware of this, but according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in August, about half of Democrats planned on voting in the upcoming election by mail, whereas only one quarter of Republicans planned on doing the same.

So it's a huge coincidence that Trump wants to limit the counting of mail in votes as much as possible.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1517 on: September 20, 2020, 01:36:37 PM »
Y-22,

“n95's aren't available on amazon nor do any results turn up when you search for n95 masks on google and click on shopping.”

Per your difficulty in acquiring the N-95;

Stop. It's not about my difficulty in getting an n95. Its about the fact that hospitals are continuing to reuse what was intended to be a single use product. I said there was a shortage and provided plenty of evidence to back that up. I didn't claim that there were none being produced and that you may be able to buy a few here and there if you're willing to pay 6x pre pandemic prices.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1518 on: September 20, 2020, 03:36:36 PM »
Y-22,

“I didn't claim that there were none being produced and that you may be able to buy a few here and there if you're willing to pay 6x pre pandemic prices.“

Now your credibility is at issue. I was going to avoid that conclusion as it is possible you are simply bad at conducting searches. You just got finished calling me a liar, asserting that N-95s were not available through Amazon, or any other vendor in your google search. Presumably, this was somehow Trump’s fault. Is it necessary to repost your statement? There are, in fact, more than five sellers on Amazon at the price I quoted you, and Google is replete with more than “a few” alternative sources.

“Stop” indeed.
 
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 03:50:19 PM by noel c. »

Mynnion

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1519 on: September 20, 2020, 03:47:02 PM »
The question raised is can those sources provide the quantities needed to provide adequate supplies to hospital staff.  my guess is no.  There is also the question about whether the supplies on google actually meet the standards required to qualify as N95s.  There have been a number of individuals and suppliers caught over selling their product.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1520 on: September 20, 2020, 04:02:12 PM »

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1521 on: September 20, 2020, 04:06:09 PM »
Y-22,

Let’s try again, did you say this, and is it true?

“n95's aren't available on amazon nor do any results turn up when you search for n95 masks on google and click on shopping.”

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1522 on: September 20, 2020, 08:39:45 PM »
Y-22,

Let’s try again, did you say this, and is it true?

“n95's aren't available on amazon nor do any results turn up when you search for n95 masks on google and click on shopping.”


A google search on n95 mask and the shopping tab yields this message.

Quote
Your search - n95 mask - did not match any shopping results.

COVID-19 alert
Product availability may be limited, and we’ve removed results with excessive price increases. For the latest guidance on how to protect yourself and others, visit the World Health Organization’s (WHO) website.

The amazon link you sent requires a small business account to purchase so that fails sort of being generally available. And honestly I'm sure if you dug around long enough you could find someone reselling them or potentially find the real thing if you searched at the right time.

Listen I'm done tracking these individual sites down. There is a general shortage of n95's. You used to be able to buy them at the local hardware store if you were going to be doing a bunch of sanding or painting. They aren't there anymore. Medical professionals are still reporting having to reuse n95s multiple times despite the recommendations that they be single use for medical purposes. It really doesn't matter if you can find a few masks here and there on the internet for 6 or 7 times their pre pandemic price, it won't show there isn't an ongoing shortage.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1523 on: September 20, 2020, 09:44:52 PM »
Y-22,

“The amazon link you sent requires a small business account to purchase so that fails sort of being generally available. And honestly I'm sure if you dug around long enough you could find someone reselling them or potentially find the real thing if you searched at the right time.“

You are not particularly motivated to meet your personal needs, are you? There were four other Amazon sellers that would have sold 3M N/25s to you for the same price.

If this exercise has demonstrated anything to me it is that a lot of hoarding is taking place. I do not need these masks for SARS-CoV-2. My concern with getting infected is zero. The application for me is industrial. My supplier is industrial. They probably have one pallet of these things in stock, and sell them, per 3M recommendations, at $39.90 for a box of 20. They are A+ rated with the BBB, and I would be happy to connect anyone with a genuine medical need. However, I will not post the company contact information, especially on this site. We seem to have a problem with internet alarmist Chicken Littles who generate shortages for bona fide medical suppliers. The unfounded Armageddon rants, and ad hominem attacks are boring, but destructive.

“Listen I'm done tracking these individual sites down. There is a general shortage of n95's. You used to be able to buy them at the local hardware store if you were going to be doing a bunch of sanding or painting. They aren't there anymore.”

Surprise! That is the market’s way of maintaining stock for medical care providers.

“Medical professionals are still reporting having to reuse n95s multiple times despite the recommendations that they be single use for medical purposes.”

Define “single use”, these do not disintegrate with a full day’s use.

“It really doesn't matter if you can find a few masks here and there on the internet for 6 or 7 times their pre pandemic price, it won't show there isn't an ongoing shortage.”

You could ameliorate that “shortage“, even at my $2.00/mask price, if you, and people like you, would temper your cultivated fears.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1524 on: September 20, 2020, 10:12:57 PM »
Y-22,

“The amazon link you sent requires a small business account to purchase so that fails sort of being generally available. And honestly I'm sure if you dug around long enough you could find someone reselling them or potentially find the real thing if you searched at the right time.“

You are not particularly motivated to meet your personal needs, are you? There were four other Amazon sellers that would have sold 3M N/25s to you for the same price.

When has this ever been about my personal need? I wasn't out shopping for n95s for myself, I simply linked to articles saying that there were medical shortages where hospitals, medical facilities, and states were still having trouble filling orders.

You're the one who started linking to random websites to show there was no shortage for people willing to pay. Then I noted they weren't generally commercially available as they were pre pandemic.

Quote
“Medical professionals are still reporting having to reuse n95s multiple times despite the recommendations that they be single use for medical purposes.”

Define “single use”, these do not disintegrate with a full day’s use.

Well typically any medical equipment that gets exposed to viruses needs to be decontaminated or disposed of. Prior to the pandemic n95s, masks, gloves, and gowns were all disposed of after a single use. I know that many of the decontamination procedures make the masks less effective over time.

Quote
“It really doesn't matter if you can find a few masks here and there on the internet for 6 or 7 times their pre pandemic price, it won't show there isn't an ongoing shortage.”

You could ameliorate that “shortage“, even at my $2.00/mask price, if you, and people like you, would temper your cultivated fears.

Do you have any evidence the shortage is being driven by individual consumer "hoarding" like with toilet paper?

As to the cultivated fears. There is a reasonable amount of caution that should be shown during this pandemic. This virus isn't Ebola, SARS (2003), or MERS but it does kill about 1% of those infected and another 5-10% have a very serious illness with many people requiring lengthy hospitalizations and months long recoveries. 78% of covid patients in a German study showed signs of heart damage after people had recovered from the virus. While a significant number of people will come through relatively unscathed, taking reasonable precautions to avoid becoming ill seems wise.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1525 on: September 20, 2020, 10:58:34 PM »
As to the cultivated fears. There is a reasonable amount of caution that should be shown during this pandemic. This virus isn't Ebola, SARS (2003), or MERS but it does kill about 1% of those infected and another 5-10% have a very serious illness

Well... both in the USA and worldwide, the number of recorded deaths is roughly 3% of the number of recorded cases. (204,000 / 7,005,000 and 965,000 / 31,230,000) There may be a large number of unreported cases, but it is unlikely they are being left under-recorded by a factor of 3. (Of course, the number of deaths is also likely under-recorded, but let's not go there.)

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1526 on: September 20, 2020, 11:27:57 PM »
Y-22,

“When has this ever been about my personal need? I wasn't out shopping for n95s for myself, I simply linked to articles saying that there were medical shortages where hospitals, medical facilities, and states were still having trouble filling orders.”

My mistake, you were being gratuitously alarmist?

“You're the one who started linking to random websites to show there was no shortage for people willing to pay. Then I noted they weren't generally commercially available as they were pre pandemic.“

You are not implying that this was not your issue, correct?

“Well typically any medical equipment that gets exposed to viruses needs to be decontaminated or disposed of. Prior to the pandemic n95s, masks, gloves, and gowns were all disposed of after a single use. I know that many of the decontamination procedures make the masks less effective over time.”

I am surprised that you know about the N-95’s resistance to microbial decontamination. That is primarily for the inside of the mask. I can survive a day using a single mask without undue internal contamination. If availability forces a choice, I doubt medical workers will be harder on these things than I am.

“Do you have any evidence the shortage is being driven by individual consumer "hoarding" like with toilet paper?”

As I stated to begin with; I do not have any trouble getting these, which means my supplier is not having problems with 3M. In fact, 3M was pushing their distributors hard to maintain suggested retail pricing largely out of the terrible publicity that they received from Trump over the alleged China shipments. I doubt that I would still be receiving my present level of service if orders became unusually large, or frequent. A huge increase in worldwide production is in effect. If general demand is still extraordinarily high in other economic niches, then there is no other explanation than stockpiling.

“As to the cultivated fears. There is a reasonable amount of caution that should be shown during this pandemic. This virus isn't Ebola, SARS (2003), or MERS but it does kill about 1% of those infected and another 5-10% have a very serious illness with many people requiring lengthy hospitalizations and months long recoveries. 78% of covid patients in a German study showed signs of heart damage after people had recovered from the virus. While a significant number of people will come through relatively unscathed, taking reasonable precautions to avoid becoming ill seems wise.”

Reasonable precautions are, by definition, “reasonable“. My seventeen year-old daughter has virtually every COVID risk factor but age, so I am very conscious of her vulnerabilities, and sensitive to reasonable precautions. This is not an intellectual exercise for me. Within that context, I see many of the comments in this thread as generically harmful to public welfare. I realize that you believe I am a Trump fan. I would disagree at a personal level, but that is not a substantive point of contention as far as I am concerned. He is right with a high frequency, as bumbling as he may otherwise present. One of the issues that he is dead-right on is that poverty is lethal. Many social policies favored by the left are like the proverbial yelling “fire” in a crowded theatre, as it relates to economic recovery. I have personally heard well known Democrats publicly wishing for economic collapse before November, and it sickens me.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1527 on: September 20, 2020, 11:34:08 PM »
DD,

“Well... both in the USA and worldwide, the number of recorded deaths is roughly 3% of the number of recorded cases. (204,000 / 7,005,000 and 965,000 / 31,230,000) There may be a large number of unreported cases, but it is unlikely they are being left under-recorded by a factor of 3. (Of course, the number of deaths is also likely under-recorded, but let's not go there.)”

If I did not need to be concerned about my daughter, I would be an “unrecorded” case. Trust me, it is not necessarily a big deal to contract SARS-CoV-2, and I doubt that I am a minority exception.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 11:42:27 PM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1528 on: September 21, 2020, 07:01:49 AM »
"there may be a large number of unreported cases"

Thanks though.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1529 on: September 21, 2020, 01:40:46 PM »
On Fox, Trump questioning whether RBG's granddaughter made up RBG's request not to fill the vacant SCOTUS seat until after the president Selected in the upcoming election is in power:

Quote
I don't know that she said that, or was that written out by Adam Schiff and Schumer and Pelosi. I would be more inclined to the second ... But that sounds like a Schumer deal or maybe a Pelosi or Shifty Schiff.


As usual, when you think Trump couldn't possibly lower the bar any further...

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1530 on: September 21, 2020, 02:36:22 PM »
As usual, when you think Trump couldn't possibly lower the bar any further...

No, I think he could still lower it further...

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1531 on: September 21, 2020, 02:53:24 PM »
On Fox, Trump questioning whether RBG's granddaughter made up RBG's request not to fill the vacant SCOTUS seat until after the president Selected in the upcoming election is in power

That isn't the quote. The dying wish was for her seat to be filled by the next President (not Trump), so to strictly honor her request, it means her seat would need to remain vacant until the 46th PotUS of the United States assumes office and nominates a replacement. Which may not happen until 2025.

The "dying wish" claim also is a little on "too on the nose" it may been a desire she expressed prior to her passing. But I highly doubt it came up while she was literally on her death bed, if it was, it probably says very unflattering things about both her, and Trump.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1532 on: September 21, 2020, 02:54:02 PM »
No, I think he could still lower it further...
It's sad, because it's true.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1533 on: September 21, 2020, 03:19:04 PM »
Quote
This Vanity Fair story is another inaccurate and disgusting partisan hit job. President Trump has consistently put the health of all Americans first.

Kayleigh McEnany, misspells the word "death" (hint: there's there's no "L' and only one "H" in "death", Kayleigh)

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1534 on: September 21, 2020, 06:30:25 PM »
From the Wall Street Joirnal:

What percentage of the population really has to become immune before effects of herd immunity are noticeable?

https://apple.news/AsdWbKG0kTMWf91ES9-AG8w

Infection rates have continued to decrease in both the United States, and Australia since mid-July. (representative Northern, and Southern Hemisphere). The world total has increased only slightly over the same period, but overall death-rates have declined.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

“... there may be a large number of unreported cases”

Yes, and likely many more than your “... under-recorded by a factor of 3.” estimate.

I would be happy to “go there” as regards unreported deaths.

“Kayleigh McEnany, misspells the word "death" (hint: there's there's no "L' and only one "H" in "death", Kayleigh)“

Dumb.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 06:32:39 PM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1535 on: September 21, 2020, 06:50:45 PM »
Infection rates have continued to decrease in both the United States, and Australia since mid-July.
This is another instance of you linking to a web site that doesn't say what you claim.

Why do that?

Australia had to lock down the whole of Melbourne for 6 weeks starting the second week of July.  As for the new daily cases in Australia as a whole, they increased from dozens of cases in June, to peaks of over 400 in mid-July, and over 700 in early August , before decreasing from mid-August onwards.  It's strange that all this happened shortly (i.e., about three weeks) after Australia enacted a strict lockdown in the affected region.  OK, not that strange.

As for the USA, new case numbers started to plateau in mid-August, and this past week is the first since mid-July where the current weekly average is higher than the previous week's average.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1536 on: September 21, 2020, 07:01:31 PM »
Dumb.
I'm surprised you think so - I would say she's more of a mendacious, amoral sycophant, but if you want to call her "dumb", I won't argue.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1537 on: September 21, 2020, 07:41:02 PM »
DD,

“This is another instance of you linking to a web site that doesn't say what you claim. Why do that?“

Umm, you would need to show me the first instance to have ”another”.

“Australia had to lock down the whole of Melbourne for 6 weeks starting the second week of July.  As for the new daily cases in Australia as a whole, they increased from dozens of cases in June, to peaks of over 400 in mid-July, and over 700 in early August , before decreasing from mid-August onwards.  It's strange that all this happened shortly (i.e., about three weeks) after Australia enacted a strict lockdown in the affected region.  OK, not that strange.”

It appears that not only do your math skills fail you in calculating population densities, but now it comes to light that you cannot read graphs? Is this another of your petty shell games?

“As for the USA, new case numbers started to plateau in mid-August, and this past week is the first since mid-July where the current weekly average is higher than the previous week's average.”

Donald, this statement is supposed to be a rebuttal to my post, correct? If so, your reasoning is incredibly tortured. I assume the objective is to recharacterize a two month trend with an inconsequential one week snapshot?

If signs of the berated “herd immunity” were kicking in, what would it look like?

No mention of the Wall Street article?

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1538 on: September 21, 2020, 08:06:18 PM »
Yeah, I get it.  You hope nobody actually looks at the link you provided, and that nobody is aware that Melbourne started a 6-week lockdown in early July.  If you want to continue being that guy, knock yourself out.

At any rate, your argument seems to be that herd immunity is kicking in in both countries.  Or maybe that observation wasn't linked to your claims about Australia and the USA.  But time will tell - if herd immunity is kicking it, then the number of infections would necessarily decrease without mask wearing or distancing behaviours.  Time will tell.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1539 on: September 21, 2020, 08:29:54 PM »
Donald,

“Yeah, I get it.  You hope nobody actually looks at the link you provided, and that nobody is aware that Melbourne started a 6-week lockdown in early July.  If you want to continue being that guy, knock yourself out.“

Is this your way of sidestepping a deficiency in graph reading skills? Do you need help?

“At any rate, your argument seems to be that herd immunity is kicking in in both countries.  Or maybe that observation wasn't linked to your claims about Australia and the USA.”

Actually, I singled out both Australia, and the United States, to cancel out the effect of seasonal influences upon communicability. If humidity, and cold, facilitate viral transmission, as appears to be the case with other corona viruses, then Australia just passed through its worst period on a downward trend.

“But time will tell - if herd immunity is kicking it, then the number of infections would necessarily decrease without mask wearing or distancing behaviours.  Time will tell.“

I do not believe that “mask wearing” is as efficacious as one would hope, and “social distancing behaviors“ are evidently even less so. The CDC “accidentally“ hit the button. :

https://apple.news/AcuO6qIzGQ_CTeFpCr45RLg

But yes, only time will tell.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 08:42:50 PM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1540 on: September 21, 2020, 08:40:48 PM »
Just to make it easier, I've transcribed the Australia numbers here for you:

3-day average of daily new cases:
  • June 24: 20
  • July 1: 78
  • July 8: 145
  • July 15: 237 *** (FYI this is mid-July)
  • July 22: 364 (huh... higher than mid-July)
  • July 29: 393 (even higher...)
  • Aug 5: 507 (you get the idea)
  • Aug 12: 348 (dropping now, but still higher than mid-July)
  • Aug 19: 235 (2 fewer than July 15 - I guess it's been dropping for a month, now)
  • Aug 26: 131
Here the 7-day average:
  • June 24: 22
  • July 1: 57
  • July 8: 138
  • July 15: 228***
  • July 22: 345
  • July 29: 383
  • Aug 5: 552
  • Aug 12: 383
  • Aug 19: 267
  • Aug 26: 173
Pretty clear - the peak in both cases was early August, 3 to 4 weeks after Melbourne went into lockdown, and nowhere near mid-July when the numbers were just starting to ramp up seriously.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1541 on: September 21, 2020, 09:01:47 PM »
https://apple.news/AcuO6qIzGQ_CTeFpCr45RLg
I'm wondering why you think you posted this link?  For instance:
Quote
As of Monday, 28 states had more new cases this past week compared to the previous week, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Sixteen states are holding steady, and only six states are showing declines in new cases: Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Michigan, South Carolina and Vermont.

Which is exactly what I wrote above: “As for the USA, new case numbers started to plateau in mid-August, and this past week is the first since mid-July where the current weekly average is higher than the previous week's average.

What else was in that link? Well:
Quote
"We may be in for a very apocalyptic fall, I'm sorry to say," said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.
"And it's happening because we're forcing schools to reopen in areas of high transmission. We're forcing colleges to reopen, and we don't have the leadership nationally, telling people to wear masks and to social distance and do all the things we need to do."

You wrote about your cynicism concerning mask wearing and distancing behaviours... then linked to an article where they discuss the importance of mask wearing and distancing:
Quote
... telling people to wear masks and to social distance and do all the things we need to do.

<snip>

"There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances beyond 6 feet," the CDC's website said in an update Friday. "In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk."

Many doctors have known that for months -- hence their pleas for the public to wear masks.
"The updated guidance would have been fine if it came out last May," Hotez said. "We knew all of these things months ago."

But by Monday afternoon, the CDC's update was removed.

Earlier, you wrote the following: "Umm, you would need to show me the first instance to have 'another'”.  And now, almost immediately and ever so generously, you provide a link to another article that goes a fair distance to refuting your claims (and that's not even starting on the wealth of examples in your earlier link to the Wall Street Journal story.)


noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1542 on: September 21, 2020, 10:13:37 PM »
Donald,

“Pretty clear - the peak in both cases was early August, 3 to 4 weeks after Melbourne went into lockdown, and nowhere near mid-July when the numbers were just starting to ramp up seriously.”

Pretty clear - you are in shell-game mode. Building a two-month trend upon the last two weeks of July is typical of your methodology. Overlay the United States graph upon the Australian graph. The Australian prime virus season, Winter, began June 1, and ended on August 31.

That comparison is not going to work very well for you. I get it, you are really adverse to graph reading, so keep going with your three day, and seven day average, numbers out to September 10 (early Australian Spring).

What inferences can you draw?

“Which is exactly what I wrote above: “As for the USA, new case numbers started to plateau in mid-August, and this past week is the first since mid-July where the current weekly average is higher than the previous week's average.”

The trend Donald? As difficult as this will be for you, look at the graph.

“I'm wondering why you think you posted this link?  For instance:”

I posted this link to illustrate how much the CDC trusts you with accurate information.

“What else was in that link? Well:“

Well, cold wet weather should push numbers up, but what happened in Australia during their Winter?

“You wrote about your cynicism concerning mask wearing and distancing behaviours... then linked to an article where they discuss the importance of mask wearing and distancing:“

... Yes, trust me, I read it. They argue that the CDC disclosure explaining that contaminated liquid droplets linger much longer than any distancing measures are going to negate, was an error. The send “button” informing us of this was “accidentally” pushed. They do not want you to be “confused”, just like the CDC’s initial advisory telling us masks were only necessary for health care workers was intended to avoid confusion.

Recent studies assign an airborne lingering time of up to three hours for the droplet borne SARS-CoV-2 virus. Unless your mask is very efficient at filtering, and has an effective face seal, it will not stop infection.

I will grant the CDC that concentrated exhaled contamination is reduced with even crappy masks. An unobstructed cough can propel droplets up 30 feet, and even a cloth mask will mitigate that, but it will not protect you.

Get a real respirator if you want isolation from a virus.

“Earlier, you wrote the following: ‘Umm, you would need to show me the first instance to have 'another'.  And now, almost immediately and ever so generously, you provide a link to another article that goes a fair distance to refuting your claims (and that's not even starting on the wealth of examples in your earlier link to the Wall Street Journal story.)”

Donald, you always assume too much.

True or false:

- Per the CDC, 6 feet is adequate to isolate respiratory droplets.

- Per the CDC, A cloth, or even surgical, mask will provide the wearer protection.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 10:17:30 PM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1543 on: September 21, 2020, 10:32:10 PM »
noel, stop prevaricating.

You said, very specifically: "Infection rates have continued to decrease in both the United States, and Australia since mid-July"

I showed you that Australia numbers actually increased from mid July to early August, as illustrated in the link you provided. In fact, the period during which you claimed Australia's numbers were decreasing actually saw the biggest rate of increase in Australia for the whole pandemic.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1544 on: September 21, 2020, 11:21:18 PM »
That isn't the quote. The dying wish was for her seat to be filled by the next President (not Trump), so to strictly honor her request, it means her seat would need to remain vacant until the 46th PotUS of the United States assumes office and nominates a replacement. Which may not happen until 2025.
I suspect you realize that is not what she meant, and attempting to parse a paraphrase in the least generous way possible is silly.  If you sincerely believe that she meant that if Biden is not elected, she would want her seat to go unfilled until 2025, well, clearly we've been giving you too much credit.

And whether she was on her literal death bed is an open, if trivial and irrelevant, question: she dictated the statement to her granddaughter in the days leading up to her death.  Whether she did so from bed really doesn't matter.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1545 on: September 21, 2020, 11:33:25 PM »
Donald,

“noel, stop prevaricating.”

There you go with the projection again.

“You said, very specifically: ‘Infection rates have continued to decrease in both the United States, and Australia since mid-July’ ”

I am looking at a 2+ month graphical trend, comparing the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and you want to plant your flag on a two week increase in Australia that did not align with the United States? This comes from the guy who thinks it is a minor oversight to make his own calculation that the average population densities of the United States, and Canada, are the same?

Should you be called a “liar“?

Oh, my mistake... a “prevaricator”, I would hate to be accused of lying to you about that also.

Are you even able to appreciate the point being made, or is that not germane to your style of communication? During a season in which it could be anticipated that Australian infection-rates would be soaring, they dropped, and still are. What inferences could be made?

“I showed you that Australia numbers actually increased from mid July to early August, as illustrated in the link you provided. In fact, the period during which you claimed Australia's numbers were decreasing actually saw the biggest rate of increase in Australia for the whole pandemic.“

Yes, and what did those numbers show when extended over the ensuing two months? Is there some other point, related to my infection-rate observation, that you are trying to make? I will spend as much time on this as you want.

Oh wait, let me really rile you up first before answering; Even when using the gold standard, N-95 mask, with a perfect seal, there is a better than 5% chance of passing the SARS-CoV-2 virus. What do you wear in public?
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 11:43:48 PM by noel c. »

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1546 on: September 21, 2020, 11:55:37 PM »
So many words to avoid admitting you're wrong.

noel: Australia numbers decreased starting in mid July

noel's link: numbers increased from mid July for three weeks.

If you're really interested in what happened in Australia, the Australians could tell you: there was an outbreak in early July. In early July, the locked down Melbourne for 6 weeks.4 weeks into the lock down, the numbers started to decrease. It's not exactly rocket science: the whole city was essentially quarantining : if you think that had no effect... shrug.  Knock yourself out.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1547 on: September 22, 2020, 01:56:06 AM »
Donald,

“So many words to avoid admitting you're wrong.“

Projection again?

“If you're really interested in what happened in Australia, the Australians could tell you: there was an outbreak in early July. In early July, the locked down Melbourne for 6 weeks.4 weeks into the lock down, the numbers started to decrease. It's not exactly rocket science: the whole city was essentially quarantining : if you think that had no effect... shrug.  Knock yourself out.”

I can see why Daniel Andrews restrictions on Melbourne have an attraction for you, but why didn’t you select Sydney as your example? It is larger, and New South Wales has done a better job of managing COVID transmission. All the other States have a better track record for that matter. To the degree his Labor Party measures factor into Australia’s COVID numbers, it will be interesting to see if there is a negative rebound resulting from delayed herd-immunity. It’s like diving; you can only hold your breath for so long before surfacing, and the oxygen deficit comes in direct proportion. Unless Melbourne was short on hospital beds, his measures were oppressively fruitless.

So, you have no comment on the September 20, 2020 WSJ article?

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1548 on: September 22, 2020, 04:07:25 AM »
noel, I fail to even see the purpose of your arguments here. Are you trying to say...that the reduction in transmission rate masks offer is irrelevant and they should not be used unless 100% effective? If so, is that the logic you use in all safety protocols in your life? Or are you saying that there is zero reduction in mask wearing? If there is a non-zero effect for mask usage, what reasonable argument could you have for preferring to increase virulence in the population? I have a hard time seeing the bottom of your argument as being anything other than "no one will tell me what to do and take away my comforts!" Prove me wrong and explain what reason there is to keeping pushing this point.

I will mention as an aside that I have my own problems with mask usage, which have nothing to do with what you're saying. My main objection is not the masks themselves, but with the idiots who think that with a mask on they can totally ignore social distancing. If I had to pick I'd overwhelmingly prefer everyone keep 6 feet apart at all times instead of wearing masks; but even better is not to pick and to have both. That many people seem to think that masks replace social distancing is IMO a failure of journalism and also of government PR outreach. That there are so many mixed messages (especially among conservatives) about whether COVID is really a problem, and about whether there is really anything we can do is probably why there is not a clear and coherent public awareness about this. Playing at politics to rile up one's base has the double effect of perhaps indefinitely prolonging the outbreak and killing the economy. Not that conservatives are entirely to blame, of course, since even left-leaning people seem to ignore guidelines (as far as I can see anecdotally) all the time. Basically no one cares enough, so everyone is making their own bed.

noel c.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1549 on: September 22, 2020, 07:25:12 AM »
Fenring,

“noel, I fail to even see the purpose of your arguments here. Are you trying to say...that the reduction in transmission rate masks offer is irrelevant and they should not be used unless 100% effective?“

No, the non-mask use canard is something that Donald interjected. Dialogue has a tendency to degenerate into triviality when engaging DD. I thought it was pretty clear that the point of my link was to highlight CDC update information being “corrected” to misinformation.

“If so, is that the logic you use in all safety protocols in your life? Or are you saying that there is zero reduction in mask wearing?”

I am saying that all safety protocols are risk calculations, including the venerated N-95. It bothers me that these flimsy, and ubiquitous, blue surgical masks are proffered as “protection”, they are not.

“I will mention as an aside that I have my own problems with mask usage, which have nothing to do with what you're saying. My main objection is not the masks themselves, but with the idiots who think that with a mask on they can totally ignore social distancing.”

I agree with that assessment. Unless there is a good face seal, and efficient filtration, they are the prophylactic equivalent of a sieve.

“If I had to pick I'd overwhelmingly prefer everyone keep 6 feet apart at all times instead of wearing masks; but even better is not to pick and to have both.”

Given the turbulent fluid nature of air, I am certain that viral concentrations do not precisely follow the inverse square law, but it is obvious to me that dilution increases exponentially with distance. Six-feet is better than three feet, but twelve feet is much better than twice as good at viral dispersion.

“That many people seem to think that masks replace social distancing is IMO a failure of journalism and also of government PR outreach.”

My issue with government outreach is more fundamental. The CDC conveys a false sense of security to individuals highly vulnerable to infection.  Unless mask filtration efficiency is better than 5 microns, neither masks, nor distancing, is effective for people at elevated risk for infection when mingling in enclosed areas unequipped with positive ventilation systems (supermarkets). Point defense is the only way to protect the elderly, and otherwise compromised. They need to stay home.

“That there are so many mixed messages (especially among conservatives) about whether COVID is really a problem, and about whether there is really anything we can do is probably why there is not a clear and coherent public awareness about this”

It is a minor problem for most people, which is why the majority have a vital function in protecting the at-risk minority, by acquiring immunity. That was the basic thrust of my post.

“Playing at politics to rile up one's base has the double effect of perhaps indefinitely prolonging the outbreak and killing the economy.”

This outbreak does not have a chance of lasting indefinitely. The immediate objective should be minimizing deaths while it is with us. Overly broad misdirected precautions have done a very effective job of killing the economy, which is itself lethal.

“Not that conservatives are entirely to blame, of course, since even left-leaning people seem to ignore guidelines (as far as I can see anecdotally) all the time. Basically no one cares enough, so everyone is making their own bed.“

I slightly disagree, but not with your anecdotal observation. It is true that individuals with high-risk factors cannot be forced to self-isolate. They can, however, be made aware of relatively inexpensive masks which are virtually 100% efficient at sub-5 micron filtration in situations where self-isolation is not possible. I have not heard a word from the CDC on that fact, nor does an emphasis on the at-risk demographic burn through the CDC clutter of general alarm.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 07:38:56 AM by noel c. »