Donald,
“So much incorrect information to unpack here.. “If you can keep this substantive, it might turn into a real discussion. Try hard.
“... ‘a minor problem for most people’ - this is literally true of every pandemic. The 1918 pandemic, using worst case mortality of 20%, still could be characterized as you did here. Of course we are seeing far more people than have died experiencing long term side effects of the infection, and we don't yet have enough data on long term mortality due to infection after-effects. But sure, it's a minor problem for most... “Unlike the 1918 epidemic, this infection targets a discrete demographic minority that can be shielded. You are right that COVID-19 side effects have been observed in those severely effected, roughly 10-15% of total recorded cases. In these people prolonged symptoms of fatigue, and disorientation, are the most common after effects. What the actual percentage of severe COVID-19 infections is remains uncertain due to significant underreporting of mild cases.
The lungs, heart, gut, kidneys, blood vessels, and nervous system may be affected due to immune response induced inflammation. This is the only issue that gives me pause, because there is a July 20th German study that reported myocardial inflammation in 60% of those diagnosed at the hospital, resulting in permanent left ventricle wall thickening/scarring. The study needs to be repeated, and to my knowledge nobody has.
“ ‘At risk minority’ - yes, risk increases by age, and by co-morbidities, but COVID-19 is still more deadly to anybody over the age of 20 than a bad seasonal flu. The assumption that you can isolate people over the age of 55, or people with diabetes, hypertension, or obesity, from the rest of the population for long periods of time is arguably for more economically damaging than focussed six week shutdowns of smaller areas.”You can not have it both ways. Is your priority saving lives, or casting discriminatory caution aside in workforce composition? Let me guess; you are “obese, diabetic, hypertensive, over 55, and “arguably” irreplaceable?
" ‘by acquiring immunity’ - we are not remotely near having any type of herd immunity effect.“Have you read the Wall Street article yet?
“Also, herd immunity effects do not preclude flareups, each of which would put at-risk people back in danger according to your philosophy.”
“My philosophy”, as you mischaracterize statements made by me on this forum, anticipates SARS-CoV-2 genetic drift into evolutionary oblivion... just like its cousin SARS-CoV-1. Now it could evolve into something even more virulent, but the typical path of virus recombination leads to diminished virulency, not higher.
“To get an idea of how far away the USA is from acquiring any type of herd immunity effects, see the seroprevalence survey data being accumulated by the CDC. New York city is up around 17%. The remaining areas, Philadelphia, south Florida, etc, are all down below 6%. Given that observable herd effects would only kick in around 50%, and higher rates would be needed to significantly affect spread, you're looking at increasing infection rates by a factor of 10 for most of the country.“You would really benefit from reading the WSJ article, but your reasoning is basically correct. My only criticism is that you seem to be relying upon a subtext of emotional equivocation. The inherent implication is that SARS-CoV-2 is a serious health matter for the “herd”. If instead you stated;
“common-cold infection rates would need to increase by a factor of 10 for most of the country”... in order to protect our vulnerable population, your apprehension would sound silly. Have you been infected yet?
Time estimates for distribution-ready vaccine are anywhere from six to twelve months out based upon what I am reading. Do you want to double the death total before a vaccine is available, or contribute to a solution?
Y-22,
“Wow, if only there were enough of those relatively inexpensive masks for everyone in America over the age of 55, with high blood pressure, with asthma, diabetes, or obesity. Its almost like the president could have used the DPA to make sure they were readily available to all people with a risk factor.”I doubt that Trump has the slightest idea they exist, but the CDC knows. :
https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/company-us/all-3m-products/~/3M-Particulate-Respirator-8233-N100-20-ea-Case/?N=5002385+3294776421&rt=rud