Author Topic: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:  (Read 123462 times)

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #700 on: May 11, 2020, 06:31:36 PM »
Almost every Governor who has weighed in agrees that we need far more testing that is being done now, as well as additional measures to protect people and trace contacts from those who become sick.

I've seen/heard this as well. The problem is it's meaningless. What percentage of people should be tested? How often? You're agreeing that population-scale testing isn't realistic, so what is? 10%, 20%? By when?

I don't have those answers, but I'll go on record too: I think we need more testing and I don't care who knows it!

Using unknowables as parameters for next-steps is as meaningful as a fart in the wind.

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #701 on: May 11, 2020, 07:07:34 PM »
Well, the targets are out there already. Harvard Global Health Institute suggests 900K tests per day currently (previously they had said 500k-600k). But these estimates depend on how many active cases are out there.

They also suggest that if you are seeing 10% or fewer positives, you are probably testing enough in that community. Currently nine states are meeting that requirement. These are designed to be minimums.

Looking at Texas (since I live there), currently at 61/100k, target is 94/100k. This isn't some unobtanium. The worst state is NJ, they would need 1100/100K or 1% of the population daily. The current mark? 77. So they would have to increase testing by over 10x. OR wait until their infection rates go down to make fewer tests viable.

state by state calculator and chart

Other proponents do have some pie in the sky ideas, like an NYU paper that said the US needs to test every resident every two weeks to stop the pandemic - but that's a different goal than maintaining R<=1.

Of course all that testing doesn't do you much good if you can't track and quarantine people who came in contact with those who tested positive.

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #702 on: May 11, 2020, 07:14:17 PM »
I'll tack on one more requirement. Enough testing should be available so that people who are showing symptoms can ***** get one.

Quote
For the past two weeks, Nathan Tetreault of Lillian, Ala., has suffered through likely COVID-19 symptoms: dry cough, fever, waking up in the middle of the night struggling to breathe.

"I don't know if I have it. However, chances are pretty darn likely," Tetreault says.

Doctors wouldn't test him last week because he didn't meet the required criteria early on: He's not someone who's over 65 and showing symptoms, and he hasn't traveled outside the U.S. or come into contact with anyone he knows of who has tested positive.

"The scariest thing is not getting answers, not knowing what's gonna happen when you call the doctor and they're just like, 'Yeah, you're on your own,' " he says.

Tetreault is now feeling better. He's supposed to go back to his job at a supermarket. But he's worried he could be infectious. He says if he knew he was positive, he could ask for more time off.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #703 on: May 11, 2020, 09:12:38 PM »
I'll tack on one more requirement. Enough testing should be available so that people who are showing symptoms can ***** get one.

The problem here is the symptom list is so large at this point it has ceased to have any real meaning. As I can point back to my post from the other day where in a sample size of nearly 10,000 Idahoans who believed they have had a Covid19 infection, less than 2% of them tested positive for the antibodies.

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #704 on: May 11, 2020, 09:16:30 PM »
I'll tack on one more requirement. Enough testing should be available so that people who are showing symptoms can ***** get one.

The problem here is the symptom list is so large at this point it has ceased to have any real meaning. As I can point back to my post from the other day where in a sample size of nearly 10,000 Idahoans who believed they have had a Covid19 infection, less than 2% of them tested positive for the antibodies.

Fine, stick to the major ones. Like the guy in the anecdote who woke up having trouble breathing and running a fever. I'm not suggesting that necessarily everyone who has a cough should get tested - but if it is preventing them from going back to work or in reverse if they should not go back to work?

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #705 on: May 11, 2020, 09:22:45 PM »
Fine, stick to the major ones. Like the guy in the anecdote who woke up having trouble breathing and running a fever. I'm not suggesting that necessarily everyone who has a cough should get tested - but if it is preventing them from going back to work or in reverse if they should not go back to work?

Some of that one should fall on the Employer, and keep in mind I also posted very early on into this that My Brother was sent home from work in Early March because he had a cough, he and his family later developed Covid19 like symptoms, but their symptoms were mild. So we're reasonably certain they've probably had it, but cannot be sure, as he was unable to be tested--because it was during March. But for him at the time, the instructions were "either get tested and verified as Covid19-negative (which he was never able to do), or come back in about 3 weeks--or a week after symptoms end, whichever is longer."

So I can appreciate how frustrating that can be for employees and employers alike. But the testing capacity simply doesn't exist for every employer to be capable of testing any employee they think might have a Covid19 infection. There are simply far too many people, and not enough capacity.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #706 on: May 12, 2020, 01:01:23 AM »
I'll tack on one more requirement. Enough testing should be available so that people who are showing symptoms can ***** get one.

The problem here is the symptom list is so large at this point it has ceased to have any real meaning. As I can point back to my post from the other day where in a sample size of nearly 10,000 Idahoans who believed they have had a Covid19 infection, less than 2% of them tested positive for the antibodies.

Fine, stick to the major ones. Like the guy in the anecdote who woke up having trouble breathing and running a fever. I'm not suggesting that necessarily everyone who has a cough should get tested - but if it is preventing them from going back to work or in reverse if they should not go back to work?

I think tests for symptomatic people (although to TheDeamon's point everyone who catches a cold is probably going to want a test) is fine.

But what about all the asymptomatic people? Would the plan be to make random testing mandatory? Kind of like a draft, where if you’re number is called you need to report to the clinic for testing?

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #707 on: May 12, 2020, 01:13:18 AM »
TheDrake I went to the link you provided. Maybe I’m missing something, but it seems incredibly naive.

“To make their state-by-state estimates, the Harvard Global Health Institute group started from a model of future case counts. It calculated how much testing would be needed for a state to test all infected people and any close contacts they may have exposed to the virus. (The simulation estimates testing 10 contacts on average.)

"Testing is outbreak control 101, because what testing lets you do is figure out who's infected and who's not," Jha says. "And that lets you separate out the infected people from the noninfected people and bring the disease under control."

This approach is how communities can prevent outbreaks from flaring up. First, test all symptomatic people, then reach out to their close contacts and test them, and finally ask those who are infected or exposed to isolate themselves.

Test all asymptomatic people, then their close contacts? Wait what?.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #708 on: May 12, 2020, 01:29:05 AM »
The worst state is NJ, they would need 1100/100K or 1% of the population daily. The current mark? 77. So they would have to increase testing by over 10x. OR wait until their infection rates go down to make fewer tests viable.

And yet they’re shutting down testing centers in NJ. Not because lack of test kits - there’s plenty of them - but because nobody is showing up. They literally can’t give them away.

http://newjersey.news12.com/story/42113331/ocean-county-coronavirus-testing-center-scales-back-hours-due-to-lack-of-people-getting-tested#.XroQFOVzucI.twitter

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #709 on: May 12, 2020, 01:29:20 AM »
This approach is how communities can prevent outbreaks from flaring up. First, test all symptomatic people, then reach out to their close contacts and test them, and finally ask those who are infected or exposed to isolate themselves.

Test all asymptomatic people, then their close contacts? Wait what?.

There is no "A" in front of their use of the word, symptomatic, not asymptomatic.

Of course, the only way you're going to find the asymptomatic person is by testing them, but "hopefully" they'll be a known contact of someone who was symptomatic. But there is guarantee of that being that case, and heaven forbid you have a case of asymptomatic spread to another asymptomatic person who then spreads it, worse if it manages to jump a few more times that way. Which is still back to "hope someone in the chain shows symptoms and can get tested, which will lead to ferreting out the rest of them"

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #710 on: May 12, 2020, 01:34:17 AM »
Crap - reading fail on my part, thanks. Meanwhile, more testing sites closing. Lots of tests available, no demand.

https://week.com/2020/05/11/mclean-county-covid-19-testing-site-to-close-this-week-due-to-shrinking-demand/

cherrypoptart

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #711 on: May 12, 2020, 02:47:38 AM »
They still have conditions on who qualifies to get tested. If they have so much extra testing capacity and are closing sites due to limited demand they should consider opening the testing up to anyone who wants one and then also let them be tested anonymously. I mean they are in a car so you could run the plates to find out who they are but these are extra tests on people who now don't qualify to be tested at all so if any of them happen to pop positive that is just bonus information. Why anonymously? That may be the only way some people will want to do it. At least you'll now there is a case and you can give them a handout on voluntary quarantining and mask wearing. But this would be someone who was just walking around maybe spreading it anyway so at least they'll know and hopefully will do the right thing.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #712 on: May 12, 2020, 06:07:08 AM »
The worst state is NJ, they would need 1100/100K or 1% of the population daily. The current mark? 77. So they would have to increase testing by over 10x. OR wait until their infection rates go down to make fewer tests viable.

And yet they’re shutting down testing centers in NJ. Not because lack of test kits - there’s plenty of them - but because nobody is showing up. They literally can’t give them away.

http://newjersey.news12.com/story/42113331/ocean-county-coronavirus-testing-center-scales-back-hours-due-to-lack-of-people-getting-tested#.XroQFOVzucI.twitter

NJ only allows tests of people who are symptomatic or suspected due to comorbidities.  If the state allowed anyone to be tested the positive test result rate would drop significantly.

Quote
Statewide, the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 has reached 137,085. In the meantime, New Jersey has not allowed certain testing areas to swab asymptomatic individuals who want to rule out they could be contagious. It is unknown if the change has impacted the rate of positives to negatives. At this time, the positive results equate to 38.7% of the total number of tests.

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #713 on: May 12, 2020, 08:54:16 AM »
Crap - reading fail on my part, thanks. Meanwhile, more testing sites closing. Lots of tests available, no demand.

https://week.com/2020/05/11/mclean-county-covid-19-testing-site-to-close-this-week-due-to-shrinking-demand/

Wonder why it's closing.

In McLean County, people can be tested if they are a first responder, a medical professional, someone at high risk of contracting the virus, or have been in contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case.

So you can apparently have a cough, a fever, and a wheeze and not qualify? Wouldn't want to do more testing, might make their numbers look bad.

oldbrian

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #714 on: May 12, 2020, 09:06:48 AM »
And yet, just last night at the press conference the president guarunteed that if you want a test, you can get a test.

The PR people and doctors tried to walk that back, but he then repeated at the end that anybody can get tested if they want to, because we have all of this extra capacity going to waste.

"If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor."   -  conservatives launched a ****storm
"If you want to get tested, you can get tested."        -  conservatives defend and 'explain what he really meant'

 

Aris Katsaris

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #715 on: May 12, 2020, 09:34:45 AM »
Are these tests free, or do you have to pay for them, and if so how much?

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #716 on: May 12, 2020, 09:47:25 AM »
Are these tests free, or do you have to pay for them, and if so how much?

In nearly all cases (or maybe all) the test is fully covered by insurance or the government.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #717 on: May 12, 2020, 10:02:10 AM »
Crap - reading fail on my part, thanks. Meanwhile, more testing sites closing. Lots of tests available, no demand.

https://week.com/2020/05/11/mclean-county-covid-19-testing-site-to-close-this-week-due-to-shrinking-demand/

Wonder why it's closing.

In McLean County, people can be tested if they are a first responder, a medical professional, someone at high risk of contracting the virus, or have been in contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case.

So you can apparently have a cough, a fever, and a wheeze and not qualify? Wouldn't want to do more testing, might make their numbers look bad.

Nope, they changed  the criteria over a month ago to anyone who thinks they have symptoms, aka anyone. Still nobody is showing.

https://week.com/2020/04/09/mclean-county-covid-19-testing-site-loosens-testing-restrictions/

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #718 on: May 12, 2020, 10:08:43 AM »
Well my quote comes from your original article, may 11. Your second link is from April 9. I don't really care to dig in to the intricasies of McLean county beyond that.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #719 on: May 12, 2020, 10:50:35 AM »
Well my quote comes from your original article, may 11. Your second link is from April 9. I don't really care to dig in to the intricasies of McLean county beyond that.

Not expecting you to. Yeah the original link incorrectly says that only certain people can get tested, turns out that's false.

There's a really weird phenomenon going on, I think almost entirely a result of social media. People seem to want to propagate news/issues that fit the fear narrative, even when the real world conspires against it. I remember talking to a colleague about how, while Seattle had a hotspot that was almost entirely within a single nursing home, it looked like in general the state was relatively mild re: covid outbreaks and deaths. Her reply was "oh no, just you wait. I have a friend who's in the medical field - and it's going to get waaay worse." That was mid-March. I think there are people who go in that direction because they think they're helping everyone "stays vigilant", but most are motivated by something else. Not entirely sure what.

Case in point and still related to testing availability.  A guy on twitter names Sam Ghail, MD tweets out this morning:

"Hi, ER Doc here.

We STILL do NOT have enough COVID tests for our symptomatic patients let alone to test everyone who wants one."

It's retweeted 13.5K times and has 45K likes. Turns out he's in Kentucky, which has plenty of testing capacity including drive-up testing sites at Krogers with little to no wait. They still aren't up to snuff according to the volume testing arguably needed for reopening, but the idea that symptomatic people can't get tested is bullsh*t.

Most of the thousands of his replies are either "thanks for keeping us informed doc!" or some kind of slam on Trump because sick people can't get tested. We're a weird, weird, species.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #720 on: May 12, 2020, 11:14:10 AM »
Luckily nobody on this forum does that.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #721 on: May 12, 2020, 11:19:17 AM »
The issue isn't weird psychological motivations, we had those since our knuckles were still dragging. The problem is now we can instantly manifest and amplify those thoughts across the world. Very dangerous.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #722 on: May 12, 2020, 11:26:33 AM »
Does citing a CDC study about the lack of efficacy of masks and the flu and your view that masks aren't worth using against coronavirus fit the narrative?

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #723 on: May 12, 2020, 11:34:43 AM »
Does citing a CDC study about the lack of efficacy of masks and the flu and your view that masks aren't worth using against coronavirus fit the narrative?

Which narrative?

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #724 on: May 12, 2020, 11:48:04 AM »
Does citing a CDC study about the lack of efficacy of masks and the flu and your view that masks aren't worth using against coronavirus fit the narrative?

Which narrative?

Quote
There's a really weird phenomenon going on, I think almost entirely a result of social media. People seem to want to propagate news/issues that fit the fear narrative, even when the real world conspires against it.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #725 on: May 12, 2020, 11:58:35 AM »
No, not necessarily. I'm not sure what potential motivation could be behind the CDC article if any. If anything it seems counter to everything they've said post-march and I'm kind of surprised they released it. I'm also looking at a bunch of other papers that seem to contradict what that CDC article says.

It looks like there's a lot of research indicating that masks can stop some of the airborne transport (and hence viral load within it). And that's for the flu. That seems like common sense, but also makes the article I quotes even more strange in that they didn't actually impact overall the flu infection rate. The studies are different, most look purely at particle movement and mechanical blockage but not necessarily macro efficacy re: transmission. I'm going to keep looking.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #726 on: May 12, 2020, 12:01:47 PM »
If the masks are used correctly and your concerned your asymptomatic your probably keeping people around you safe. Sick or not sick your also probably making people around you feel less anxious which may be reason enough to put one on.

My observations are that most people aren't using masks correctly as they are constantly touching them, pulling them down and then putting them back on. If they do come into contact with a virus a mask might make them more vulnerable - less alert.  So Its not surprise that wearing masks has little influence on infection.

And don't get me started on gloves.


TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #727 on: May 12, 2020, 12:44:18 PM »
Well my quote comes from your original article, may 11. Your second link is from April 9. I don't really care to dig in to the intricasies of McLean county beyond that.

Not expecting you to. Yeah the original link incorrectly says that only certain people can get tested, turns out that's false.

There's a really weird phenomenon going on, I think almost entirely a result of social media. People seem to want to propagate news/issues that fit the fear narrative, even when the real world conspires against it. I remember talking to a colleague about how, while Seattle had a hotspot that was almost entirely within a single nursing home, it looked like in general the state was relatively mild re: covid outbreaks and deaths. Her reply was "oh no, just you wait. I have a friend who's in the medical field - and it's going to get waaay worse." That was mid-March. I think there are people who go in that direction because they think they're helping everyone "stays vigilant", but most are motivated by something else. Not entirely sure what.

Case in point and still related to testing availability.  A guy on twitter names Sam Ghail, MD tweets out this morning:

"Hi, ER Doc here.

We STILL do NOT have enough COVID tests for our symptomatic patients let alone to test everyone who wants one."

It's retweeted 13.5K times and has 45K likes. Turns out he's in Kentucky, which has plenty of testing capacity including drive-up testing sites at Krogers with little to no wait. They still aren't up to snuff according to the volume testing arguably needed for reopening, but the idea that symptomatic people can't get tested is bullsh*t.

What is it that you assume? That the doctor is deliberately lying for political reasons? So are all the other individuals and medical professionals who claim they have symptoms and can't get tested? Including anecdotes already listed here?

Shoes come in pairs. If you are seeing an agenda to increase concern, I see an agenda to decrease concern. Every piece of news that suggests that the virus just isn't that bad seems to get thrown around with equal abandon. Each "camp" is going to say that they are "telling it how it is" and that the other people are blind to what's going on.

If I post that Germany is now at R=1.1, am I fear mongering? Promoting a narrative? Well, I guess I am. My narrative is "watch out", just like I would say to someone swimming a little too far off shore. You don't have to get out of the water, but maybe you need to swim back in a little closer.

1.1 sounds pretty close to 1.0, but what it really means is nearly quadrupling cases in two weeks time. But there I go fear mongering again.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #728 on: May 12, 2020, 01:44:50 PM »
What is it that you assume? That the doctor is deliberately lying for political reasons?

It's unclear. There are amazing people sharing valuable information and there are also mentally ill people providing emotionally charged disinformation.

Like the early video of a nurse, distraught, crying and claiming that America was doomed - it was viewed over 8 million times and promoted by CBS before it was discovered it was she was mentally ill and her "story" was nonsense.

Or the chairman of the NYC health committee posting as fact that they were going to start digging mass body graves in Central Park, even going to lengths to describe how many caskets would be in a row. Obviously it never happened but apparently he thought it was directionally the right message to make sure everyone keeps the "appropriate" level of concern.

I'm not saying all negative posts are the result of some kind underlying psychosis, just that I believe that phenomenon exists.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #729 on: May 12, 2020, 02:13:16 PM »
Fear more often then not is False Evidence Appearing Real and it takes a great deal of self awareness and discernment skills to deal with all the information that comes at us.

There is a psychosis of fear to much of the way information is spread. We are programmed to pay attention to danger and in the moment react to a tiger jumping out at us in the same way as a virus jumping out at us. Reacting to the trigger in the moment is a good survival ability. Reacting to a virus in the same way we react to a tiger jumping out at us not so helpful. Dealing with a virus requires a response not a reaction. One might train for both events so that ones response happens at the spread of a reaction but the training to face a tiger is going to be very different then the training to face a virus.

For the majority of people who do not train so the body/mind reacts to the threat of the tiger and virus in the same way.

Other then trolls most people that re-posting information that scares aren't doing to reinforce a narrative although current partisan poultices will determine which echo chambers the information originate from. Why making the virus a partisan political issue is a disaster, the virus is a health issue and should be addressed that way. Instead we move back to the false choices of All or nothing - Lock it down forever or Let it fly. There is of course allot of options between All and Nothing but it requires us to take a step back and stop blindly reacting. 

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #730 on: May 12, 2020, 02:22:54 PM »
I hope I've been relatively even in my advocacy. I clearly know we can't lock down forever. I also know we don't need anybody piling into a soccer stadium any time soon. Or a beach. You can live without swimming and cheering. Some rules I think are silly and inconsistent - like not allowing hair salons to open even if customers have appointed times only, full disinfecting of areas between customers, and avoiding any adjacent stations.

Utah opened up their bars and demanded strict distancing rules, including no seat changes and limited capacity. Within minutes of opening, social media had pictures of people piling all over each other. This is not Norway, clearly. So to the extent that I advocate closer to the "nothing" side, its that I have no confidence in people to avoid the "let it fly" scenario in practice.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #731 on: May 19, 2020, 11:34:16 AM »
Fox News: Neil Cavuto
Quote
President Trump: I’m taking it – hydroxychloroquine. I think it's good. I've heard a lot good stories. And if it's not good, I'll tell you right [now], I'm not going to get hurt by it.

Quote
Cavuto: The president has insisted that [hydroxychloroquine] has enormous benefits for patients either trying to prevent or [who] already have COVID-19. The fact of the matter is, though, when the president said, 'What have you got to lose?' In a number of studies [of] those certainly vulnerable, the population have one thing to lose, their lives.

Fenring

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #732 on: May 19, 2020, 11:41:00 AM »
DonalD,

Quote
In a number of studies [of] those certainly vulnerable, the population have one thing to lose, their lives.

Is that quote supposed to mean that taking hydrochloroquine could kill you? Because that's what your arrangement of quotes makes it sound like.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #733 on: May 19, 2020, 11:43:14 AM »
If you don't trust the quote, you could listen to the video (at the link) or read the transcript (at the link).

Just click on the hyperlink - it should open a new tab on your browser.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #734 on: May 19, 2020, 11:46:12 AM »
DonalD,

Quote
In a number of studies [of] those certainly vulnerable, the population have one thing to lose, their lives.

Is that quote supposed to mean that taking hydrochloroquine could kill you? Because that's what your arrangement of quotes makes it sound like.

The NIH and FDA halted studies of hydrochloroquine because of increased risk of having a heart attack while showing no efficacy in treating covid 19. So while the increased risk is small, its like betting where there is no outcome in which you win. You take a risk, but there is no corresponding upside. If the white house doctor actually prescribed this for him he's a piss poor doctor and just another Trump "yes" man.

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #735 on: May 19, 2020, 11:46:57 AM »
The one thing that Trump has always said, is that one must work with one's doctor to evaluate whether to use it or not. His medical experts repeat the same point.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #736 on: May 19, 2020, 11:51:48 AM »
Per the CDC website:

"Hydroxychloroquine can be prescribed to adults and children of all ages. It can also be safely taken by pregnant women and nursing mothers. "

This is in the context of Malaria treatment but is referring to prophylactic use which would indicate they feel it's safe for virtually anyone to take.

I'm not a doctor but, COVID-19 efficacy aside, I think I'll assume the CDC guidance is accurate.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #737 on: May 19, 2020, 11:55:37 AM »
It shouldn't really need to be said, but all medications carry potentially negative side effects, so the definition of a "safe" medication always has that asterisk.

Crunch

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #738 on: May 19, 2020, 11:56:11 AM »
DonalD,

Quote
In a number of studies [of] those certainly vulnerable, the population have one thing to lose, their lives.

Is that quote supposed to mean that taking hydrochloroquine could kill you? Because that's what your arrangement of quotes makes it sound like.

The NIH and FDA halted studies of hydrochloroquine because of increased risk of having a heart attack while showing no efficacy in treating covid 19. So while the increased risk is small, its like betting where there is no outcome in which you win. You take a risk, but there is no corresponding upside. If the white house doctor actually prescribed this for him he's a piss poor doctor and just another Trump "yes" man.

People taking HCQ over the last 70 years for a variety of issues must be shocked at how close to death they are!

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In a letter to Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona, the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) presents a frequently updated table of studies that report results of treating COVID-19 with the anti-malaria drugs chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ, Plaquenil®).

To date, the total number of reported patients treated with HCQ, with or without zinc and the widely used antibiotic azithromycin, is 2,333, writes AAPS, in observational data from China, France, South Korea, Algeria, and the U.S. Of these, 2,137 or 91.6 percent improved clinically. There were 63 deaths, all but 11 in a single retrospective report from the Veterans Administration where the patients were severely ill.

The antiviral properties of these drugs have been studied since 2003. Particularly when combined with zinc, they hinder viral entry into cells and inhibit replication. They may also prevent overreaction by the immune system, which causes the cytokine storm responsible for much of the damage in severe cases, explains AAPS. HCQ is often very helpful in treating autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.

Additional benefits shown in some studies, AAPS states, is to decrease the number of days when a patient is contagious, reduce the need for ventilators, and shorten the time to clinical recovery.

Peer-reviewed studies published from January through April 20, 2020, provide clear and convincing evidence that HCQ may be beneficial in COVID-19, especially when used early, states AAPS.

So, the science is only valid when it agrees with you conclusion. Right? The AAPS, 100% made up of Trump "yes men", that about it?

Dude, is orange man so bad you're willing to dismiss a potential treatment and let people die? Christ, some of you guys are really off your rockers on this.

HCQ with Zinc might work, there's conflicting evidence so we can't be sure. One thing we can be sure of is, when properly prescribed and used, it's safe. We have literally 7+ decades of data to show this. Pretending otherwise is the worst sort of fear-mongering. You ought to be ashamed of it.


DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #739 on: May 19, 2020, 12:00:29 PM »
From Trump's letter threatening permanent US withdrawal from the WHO:
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The World Health Organization consistently ignored credible reports of the virus spreading in Wuhan in early December 2019 or even earlier, including reports from the Lancet medical journal
Richard Horton, The Lancet's editor-in-chief:
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Dear President Trump — You cite The Lancet in your attack on WHO. Please let me correct the record. The Lancet did not publish any report in early December, 2019, about a virus spreading in Wuhan.

The first reports we published were from Chinese scientists on Jan 24, 2020.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #740 on: May 19, 2020, 12:03:24 PM »
I'm currently taking vitamin D3 supplements because of strong data linking COVID-19 symptom severity with vitamin D deficiencies. Turns out about 70% of the US population is vitamin D deficient anyway, so feels like a win-win for me. But wait...

Possible side effects of vitamin D include irregular heartbeat and heart attack, kidney stones (which could lead to critical health issues), bone pain, and other bad outcomes. In light of how we're now viewing upside vs downside, I may need to reconsider whether taking these supplements is prudent.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #741 on: May 19, 2020, 12:14:15 PM »
So, the science is only valid when it agrees with you conclusion. Right? The AAPS, 100% made up of Trump "yes men", that about it?

Dude, is orange man so bad you're willing to dismiss a potential treatment and let people die? Christ, some of you guys are really off your rockers on this.

HCQ with Zinc might work, there's conflicting evidence so we can't be sure. One thing we can be sure of is, when properly prescribed and used, it's safe. We have literally 7+ decades of data to show this. Pretending otherwise is the worst sort of fear-mongering. You ought to be ashamed of it.

April 28th is almost a month ago and before the NIH and FDA halted their studies because of increased heart attack risk while showing no treatment benefits.

Also the AAPS despite its name is mostly a political organization.

From wikipedia:
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The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) is a politically conservative non-profit association founded in 1943. It is opposed to the Affordable Care Act and other forms of universal health insurance. The group was reported to have about 4,000 members in 2005, and 5,000 in 2014. The executive director is Jane Orient, an internist and a member of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine. AAPS also publishes the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons (formerly known as the Medical Sentinel).

The association is generally recognized as politically conservative or ultra-conservative, and its publication advocates a range of scientifically discredited hypotheses, including the belief that HIV does not cause AIDS, that being gay reduces life expectancy, that there is a link between abortion and breast cancer, and that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism.

I'm not off my rocker, I never opposed scientific studies of any of the drugs. But continuing to push malaria drugs after the FDA found no benefit and increased risk of heart attack is crazy. At this point we can be about as sure as we can be that HCQ doesn't produce a measurable improvement in outcomes for covid-19 patients. Remdisaver did get support by showing a 30% reduced hospitalization time and a 3% reduction in death. HCQ couldn't even show any level of efficacy and a measurable increase in cardiac arrests in patients.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #742 on: May 19, 2020, 12:24:08 PM »
I'm currently taking vitamin D3 supplements because of strong data linking COVID-19 symptom severity with vitamin D deficiencies. Turns out about 70% of the US population is vitamin D deficient anyway, so feels like a win-win for me. But wait...

Possible side effects of vitamin D include irregular heartbeat and heart attack, kidney stones (which could lead to critical health issues), bone pain, and other bad outcomes. In light of how we're now viewing upside vs downside, I may need to reconsider whether taking these supplements is prudent.

There is research recommending it. So I would agree it seems prudent, I take a vitamin d supplement for other reasons already. I try to avoid the mega-doses, anything much over the recommended daily intake, as those are most likely to have the side effects.

When the FDA recommends people not take vitamin d because its side effects outweigh any benefits then maybe we should reevaluate. Why is this it controversial position to follow the FDA recommendations on a medication following a study of 2 to 3 thousand people?


ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #743 on: May 19, 2020, 12:29:40 PM »
Why is this it controversial position to follow the FDA recommendations on a medication following a study of 2 to 3 thousand people?

It’s not controversial at all. Just like taking a drug who's efficacy is still being debated but has well documented low risk shouldn’t be controversial either.

I know you feel HCQ's efficacy ship has sailed but I’m not certain it has. There is too much conflicting data and variations in the current study methods to be conclusive yet.

Fenring

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #744 on: May 19, 2020, 01:13:37 PM »
If you don't trust the quote, you could listen to the video (at the link) or read the transcript (at the link).

Just click on the hyperlink - it should open a new tab on your browser.

Not sure why you're commenting about what I trust, I was just asking about the literal content of what you intended to communicate. Notwithstanding the reporting you're citing, your quote makes it sound like "taking this could kill you." Now even if that's true in some fashion, it was the nuance I was curious about. The same fact "slightly increased chance of heart problems" could be written as "this generally safe medication does carry some risk in rare cases" or it could be written as "if you take this you could die." Technically those maybe saying the same thing, but they don't sound the same, nor do they communicate the same thing. That's basically what I was asking about.

This reminds me of the movie Crazy People with Dudley Moore; I recommend it even though I haven't seen it in like 25 years. So maybe it actually sucks. But anyhow, in the film a group of crazy people start working with an ad man and they come up with crazy ads (who woulda thought it) which include a medical ad stating something like "buy this or you will die." Naturally it sold very well after that, and although IRL obviously that's illegal, it's funny because it's a potentially technically true statement inflated into absurdity so that it becomes obviously deceptive in its tone.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #745 on: May 19, 2020, 01:19:39 PM »
Why is this it controversial position to follow the FDA recommendations on a medication following a study of 2 to 3 thousand people?

It’s not controversial at all. Just like taking a drug who's efficacy is still being debated but has well documented low risk shouldn’t be controversial either.

I know you feel HCQ's efficacy ship has sailed but I’m not certain it has. There is too much conflicting data and variations in the current study methods to be conclusive yet.

Remdisaver got approval for a 30% reduction in hospitalization time and a 3% drop in mortality. HCQ's study got halted for no efficacy and increased rate of heart attacks. I know there are arguments that taking it early in the infection is more effective but there haven't been any large peer reviewed studies that support that claim either.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #746 on: May 19, 2020, 01:29:21 PM »
I'm currently taking vitamin D3 supplements because of strong data linking COVID-19 symptom severity with vitamin D deficiencies. Turns out about 70% of the US population is vitamin D deficient anyway, so feels like a win-win for me. But wait...

Possible side effects of vitamin D include irregular heartbeat and heart attack, kidney stones (which could lead to critical health issues), bone pain, and other bad outcomes. In light of how we're now viewing upside vs downside, I may need to reconsider whether taking these supplements is prudent.

Vitamin D uptake from pills(or other foods/supplements) tends to be poor as well. And of course you're also correct that when you're using supplements, there is a real danger of overdose and all kinds of unpleasantness.

Best approach is to go out and sunbathe, with brief exposure times (you're not actually trying to tan, and you do not want to burn) several times a week. The body naturally produces Vitamin D in response to your skin being exposed to sunlight, and even better, there are natural mechanisms in your body to STOP Vitamin D production once you've hit the top end of the "healthy" range.

Most public health entities outside the United States have been starting to recommend the general sunbathing strategy I outlined above. Only the US is being unmovable on changing their guidance because of skin cancer risks--which seem to only strongly correlate to sun burns.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #747 on: May 19, 2020, 01:34:33 PM »
Why is this it controversial position to follow the FDA recommendations on a medication following a study of 2 to 3 thousand people?

It’s not controversial at all. Just like taking a drug who's efficacy is still being debated but has well documented low risk shouldn’t be controversial either.

I know you feel HCQ's efficacy ship has sailed but I’m not certain it has. There is too much conflicting data and variations in the current study methods to be conclusive yet.

Agreed, the FDA findings, which seem to largely be based on a VA study. Were, to my recollection, largely based on patient outcomes for people with advanced stage Covid19 infections.

While the other studies are looking at preventative/preemptive treatment outcomes--before the patient reaches those advanced stages of infection.

Basically both can be right. If you're bad enough that you need to go to the hospital for further treatment, HCQ is probably not a good treatment option for you. But if you're in the very early stages of infection, or not infected yet, HCQ may make significant beneficial contributions for improving your outcome(and possibly avoiding the hospital ER)

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #748 on: May 19, 2020, 01:42:19 PM »
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Regular sun exposure is the most natural way to get enough vitamin D. To maintain healthy blood levels, aim to get 10–30 minutes of midday sunlight, several times per week. People with darker skin may need a little more than this. Your exposure time should depend on how sensitive your skin is to sunlight.

Such recommendations have been around for a while, as well as articles discussing that 40% of the US population is deficient. Of course supplements are generally fine, as well as fortified foods like milk. There are megadoses that are out there on the market, generally not recommended.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #749 on: May 19, 2020, 01:45:42 PM »
Quote
Regular sun exposure is the most natural way to get enough vitamin D. To maintain healthy blood levels, aim to get 10–30 minutes of midday sunlight, several times per week. People with darker skin may need a little more than this. Your exposure time should depend on how sensitive your skin is to sunlight.

Such recommendations have been around for a while, as well as articles discussing that 40% of the US population is deficient. Of course supplements are generally fine, as well as fortified foods like milk. There are megadoses that are out there on the market, generally not recommended.

Well, I think part of the new dispute also has a bit to do about sunscreen use. As 10 minutes of sunlight without sunscreen is going to have a very different outcome for Vitamin D uptake than what you'd get if you're wearing SPF 50+ while doing so(might as well not bother, or prepare to remain out there for awhile)