Author Topic: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:  (Read 123680 times)

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1450 on: September 15, 2020, 06:32:34 PM »
Y-22,

“And that's assuming this virus mutates quickly or has long lasting immunity. Otherwise it could exist for decades or centuries, like measles, polio, smallpox and lots of other viruses that continue to exist in a fairly stable form over long periods of time.“

COVID-19 is not stable, but it apparently mutates slowly enough to create a vaccine for. You seemed to understand this when you referenced a hypothetical COVID-20.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1451 on: September 15, 2020, 06:36:54 PM »
Specifically, I am challenging your population density claims.

How, exactly?

First off my claim had nothing to do with population density.  It had to do with cases and deaths per capita.  You brought up population density, so it was your claim.

Secondly, your rebuttal to my showing you what was wrong with your population density claim was a km2/Mile2 conversion... but since my calculation showing you how your assumption about population density was wrong had nothing to do with kilometres, that was, as I pointed out, a cryptic irrelevancy. Maybe you have a covfefe point, but it is too buried in your non sequiturs to be obvious.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1452 on: September 15, 2020, 06:42:40 PM »
Quote
Viruses do “disappear”, just like every other species that has ever existed... just more rapidly.

Quote
Do you understand that herd immunity is what will ultimately protect from, and extinguish, this particular strain?

So your claim is the virus will "disappear" when it becomes extinct following the population gaining herd immunity. And in your opinion that is consistent with Trump's claim of it "like a miracle, it will disappear"?

Noel before I jump down more rabbit holes with you lets nail this down.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1453 on: September 15, 2020, 06:51:28 PM »
Donald,

Look at my references, and do the math. Canada, and the U.S, are not even close to equal in average population density, which you did make a claim for.

You also cited a, largely underpopulated, shared U.S. border for some reason. What was that about? Even large Canadian cities are more isolated than U.S. cities. Care to elaborate on your reasoning?

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1454 on: September 15, 2020, 06:53:43 PM »
Drake,

“What did Clinton authorize? He authorized Loral to put their satellite on top of the Chinese rocket. Not all the rest of the stuff that you're whining about. Meanwhile, how bad was that transfer anyway?“

We don’t we just “put satellites on top of Chinese rockets” anymore? Why?

Clinton deauthorized oversight by the State Department to facilitate this sale, why?

Three years following Clinton’s licensing transfer to Commerce, authority was returned to State. Why?

He did this in-spite of State Department notification of risks associated with approval of the contract. Why?

Chinese rockets performed reliably following this collaboration. Why?

Broken record. I'll bother exactly one more time, despite you ignoring the vast majority of my last description of the situation. Chinese rockets were not that unreliable. Here's the full history, and even if they went from 50% reliable to 100%, how does that possibly affect US security? Only 7 of our cities get nuked instead of 14?

Not to mention, again, that the improvement of Chinese rocket reliability was ILLEGAL. If a US company transfers tech to China illegally under Trump, are you going to blame him for that? I wouldn't.

As for moving departments around, it makes far more sense for the commerce department to oversee, well, COMMERCIAL ventures. Go ahead and cite for me the part of the Cox report that draws damning conclusions about this nefarious bureaucratic move.

Why did it change back, gee, do you think it might have been because the Cox report recommended it?

Quote
New procedures and deadlines for processing Commerce Department export
license applications instituted in late 1995 placed national security agencies under significant time pressures.
Commerce officials alone are less likely to have the expertise for identifying
national security implications of exports of militarily useful technologies. While
national security agencies may be informed of applications, due time is needed for
their consideration.

All that reads like "mistake" not Chinese Collusion to destroy America.

as for the intelligence photo, I'm not qualified to make a determination about exactly what was revealed, or how important it was. This guy doesn't seem to think it was such a hot idea.

Quote
Patrick Eddington, a former CIA satellite imagery analyst, said the photograph tweeted by Trump appeared to be a classified image taken by a U.S. spy satellite.

“If the president simply tweeted out an image from classified briefing that utilizes our most advanced overhead collection capabilities, it is no doubt welcome news to our adversaries,” said Eddington, now a research fellow at the CATO Institute.

“While he has the authority to declassify any federal document, Twitter is not a legitimate or responsible way to do so.”

I'd say a CIA satellite imagery analyst who works for the conservative CATO institute is probably qualified to dismiss something if it was no big deal.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1455 on: September 15, 2020, 06:56:59 PM »
Donald,

Look at my references, and do the math. Canada, and the U.S, are not even close to equal in average population density, which you did make a claim for.

You also cited a, largely underpopulated, shared U.S. border for some reason. What was that about? Even large Canadian cities are more isolated than U.S. cities. Care to elaborate on your reasoning?
No, I didn't.

No hand waving noel.  Show my exact words, and your exact math.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1456 on: September 15, 2020, 07:25:42 PM »
Donald,

Look at my references, and do the math. Canada, and the U.S, are not even close to equal in average population density, which you did make a claim for.

You also cited a, largely underpopulated, shared U.S. border for some reason. What was that about? Even large Canadian cities are more isolated than U.S. cities. Care to elaborate on your reasoning?

Eh... Not so much in Ontario and Quebec, but valid enough for much of the rest of Canada. And your population density statistic is misleading for both the US and Canada, but more-so for Canada.

The overwhelming majority of the Canadian population lives within 300 miles of their southern US/Canada border(not to be confused with their Alaskan one).

So yeah, Canada controls a LOT of land, but for most of that land, next to nobody is out there.

The reality is that as a % of population, Canadians are more likely to be living in or near to a large urban area with a population in excess of 100,000 people. While the United States is a lot more dispersed on that, still having entire states with cities with populations under that number.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1457 on: September 15, 2020, 07:33:14 PM »
“Malaria?”

Malaria is not a virus, and confers a survival benefit for heterozygous sickle-cell anemia carriers. I don’t think it will disappear for as long as there are people living in the tropics.

While you are correct that Malaria is not a virus, it is a parasite infection, which is why some certain anti-malarial drugs were panned for many as anti-viral treatments for Covid19.

And the sickle-cell anemia trait does not "benefit" from malaria infection, they're just less likely to be significantly impacted by a malarial infection than those without the sickl-cell trait as the sickle cells trait makes it difficult for the parasite to thrive. It was an evolutionary response to malaria that provided increased chances of survival to reach reproductive age, that's all, it doesn't provide any other meaningful benefit, and actually a number of drawbacks.

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1458 on: September 15, 2020, 08:55:41 PM »
...Chinese rockets were not that unreliable.

I asked you before to read Notra Trulock's book: [i[Code Name: Kindred Spirit.[/i] He was Bill Clinton's Director of Security for the Energy Dept., and he outed the tech transfers. It is that period of time that the US slipped in its superiority in all fields. The sad thing is Clinton didn't do this to help other nations get better - he did it for pay. Even things like the intricate computer modeling of airplane wings allowed our competitors to copy our successful aircraft industry. China jumped thirty years of R&D with their Nukes program because of Clinton and Energy Secretary Hazel O'Leary, and other anti-government activists he put in charge of our highest security technology. At one point in his book, Trulock said Clinton's officials were declassifying technology by the pound.

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1459 on: September 15, 2020, 09:57:59 PM »
Yeah, I'm not about to read an entire book on your recommendation that describes 30 year old espionage by China. If the Cox report couldn't hang anything on Clinton, that book isn't going to do so.

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1460 on: September 15, 2020, 11:28:59 PM »
Seriati has replied openly and informatively to garbled memes that sure appear to be disinformational. The Trump haters have pulled together a list of supposed Trump lies, and trot out that number in the same manner. The "lies" are anything but, yet the number is used as if it is enough. What is it up to now? 20,000?

Everything is arguable. There are two important points:

Trump is basically a good man.

The anti-Trumpers must challenge that because they cannot win on the issues.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1461 on: September 15, 2020, 11:39:01 PM »
Trump has cheated on every one of his wives.

Trump has abusive relationships with each of his children.

Maybe you don't like the big number of lies and misstatements Trump has made - but some of those lies are simply irrefutable ("I did not call John McCain a loser", "it is no worse than a seasonal flu", "it will go down to zero in a couple of weeks", "I did not have an affair with that woman" "I did not pay that woman to keep quiet about our affair")

Trump abused his position as owner of a beauty pageant in order to walk in on the naked girls while they were changing. Trump ogled young girls as his club (including the then fifteen year old daughter of Michael Cohen), described them sexually to other men in the area, told them how great their bodies turned out to their face, then told them that they would be dating their friends in a couple of years (all while married to wife #3).

Your definition of "good" is probably pretty flexible.  I doubt you think Bill Clinton is a good man, yet he hasn't done anything that Trump hasn't also done, in spades.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1462 on: September 15, 2020, 11:49:03 PM »
Quote
And we are going to be OK - We're going to be OK and it is going away and it’s probably going to go away now a lot faster because of the vaccine.  It would go away without the vaccine George, but it’s going to go away without… sure (it will go away without a vaccine) over a period of time, sure with time, it goes away.

Like you’ll develop, like a herd mentality… it’s going to be herd developed, and that’s going to happen.

A lot of people have already developed that...

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1463 on: September 16, 2020, 01:18:37 AM »
Drake,

“Broken record. I'll bother exactly one more time, despite you ignoring the vast majority of my last description of the situation. Chinese rockets were not that unreliable. Here's the full history, and even if they went from 50% reliable to 100%, how does that possibly affect US security? Only 7 of our cities get nuked instead of 14?”

The vast majority of your comments were unremarkable, but at least you are asking the right question in the above paragraph. No, prior to Loral’s input, 1992-1996, the “Long March” launch booster record was dismal. :

 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_March_(rocket_family)#Return_to_success

Subsequent to 1996-2006, the Chinese had 75 consecutive successful launches with this missile. That is a problem, apparently you agree,

“Not to mention, again, that the improvement of Chinese rocket reliability was ILLEGAL. If a US company transfers tech to China illegally under Trump, are you going to blame him for that? I wouldn't.”

Yes, they are illegal, which is why it was utterly treasonous to put the Department of Commerce in charge of licensure. Yes, if Trump did something that stupid, I would “blame him”.

“As for moving departments around, it makes far more sense for the commerce department to oversee, well, COMMERCIAL ventures.“

You know how I will respond to that.

“Go ahead and cite for me the part of the Cox report that draws damning conclusions about this nefarious bureaucratic move.“

I am not going to read all 930 pages, but here is the relevant summary (Emphasis mine):

“Satellite Launches
15. Implementation of the Strom Thurmond National Defense Authorization Act for FY 1999
The Select Committee expects that the Executive branch will aggressively implement the Satellite Export Control Provisions of the Strom Thurmond National Defense Authorization Act for FY 1999.
16. State Department Should Have Sole Satellite Licensing Authority
To protect the national security, the congressional judgment that the Department of State is the appropriate agency for licensing both exports of satellites and any satellite launch failure investigations must be faithfully and fully implemented.
17. StateDepartmentNeedforAdequatePersonnelandResourcesforSatellite Export Licensing
To protect the national interest in foreign commerce, the Satellite Launches
15. Implementation of the Strom Thurmond National Defense Authorization Act for FY 1999
The Select Committee expects that the Executive branch will aggressively implement the Satellite Export Control Provisions of the Strom Thurmond National Defense Authorization Act for FY 1999.
16. State Department Should Have Sole Satellite Licensing Authority
To protect the national security, the congressional judgment that the Department of State is the appropriate agency for licensing both exports of satellites and any satellite launch failure investigations must be faithfully and fully implemented.
17. StateDepartmentNeedforAdequatePersonnelandResourcesforSatellite Export Licensing
To protect the national interest in foreign commerce, the Department of State must ensure, consistent with national security, that satellite export licenses and notices to Congress are acted on in a timely fashion and that exporters are informed about the progress of their applications and have access to appropriate dispute resolution pro- cedures. In order to achieve the foregoing, the Executive branch and the Congress should ensure that the Department of State has adequate personnel and resources devoted to processing export license applications.
18. CorrectiveTaxLegislationforSatelliteExports
To ensure that satellite manufacturers are not disadvantaged in such collateral areas as tax credits by the transfer to the State Department of responsibility to license satellite exports, the appropriate congressional committees should report necessary legislation.
19. HeightenedRequirementsforDefenseDepartmentMonitoringofForeign Launches
The Department of Defense must give high priority to its obligations under the Strom Thurmond National Defense Authorization Act, including requirements for (i) recruit-
  SELECT COMMITTEE OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
 
 RECOMMENDATIONS
ing, training, and maintaining a staff dedicated to monitoring launches in foreign countries of U.S. satellites; and (ii) establishing and monitoring technology control plans to prevent any transfer of information that could be used by the PRC to improve its missile launch capabilities.
20. Defense Department, Not Satellite Firms, Should Be Responsible for Security at Foreign Launches
The Select Committee recommends that the appropriate congressional committees report legislation providing that, in connection with foreign launches of U.S. satellites, the Department of Defense shall contract for security personnel who have undergone back- ground checks to verify their loyalty and reliability. The number of guards shall be suf- ficient to maintain 24-hour security of the satellite and all related missile and other sensi- tive technology. The satellite export licensee shall, as a condition of licensure, be required to reimburse the Department of Defense for all associated costs of such security.
21. NeedforAdequateandPermanentForceofWellTrainedDefense Department Monitors
The Department of Defense shall ensure sufficient training for space launch campaign monitors and the assignment of adequate numbers of monitors to space launch cam- paigns. The Department of Defense also shall ensure continuity of service by moni- tors for the entire space launch campaign period, from satellite marketing to launch, and, if necessary, completion of a launch failure analysis. In addition, the Department of Defense shall adopt measures to make service as a monitor an attractive career opportunity.
22. NeedforFullandTimelyReportingofTechnologyPassedtoPRC,andof Foreign Launch Security Violations
The Department of Defense monitors shall maintain logs of all information autho- rized for transmission to the PRC, including copies of any documents authorized for transmittal, and reports on launch-related activities. Such information shall be trans- mitted on a current basis to the Departments of Defense, State, and Commerce, and to the Central Intelligence Agency. Such documents shall be retained for at least the
171
 SELECT COMMITTEE OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
 
 VOLUME III: Chapter 11
172
period of the statute of limitations for violations of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). In addition, the Department of Defense shall adopt clear written guidelines providing monitors the responsibility and the ability to report serious secu- rity violations, problems, and issues at the overseas launch site directly to the head- quarters office of the responsible Defense Department agency.
23. Application of Export Control Laws to Space Launch Insurers
The Select Committee recommends that relevant Executive departments and agencies ensure that the laws and regulations establishing and implementing export controls are applied in full to communications among satellite manufacturers, purchasers, and the insurance industry, including communications after launch failures.
24. Expansion of U.S. Launch Capacity in National Security Interest
In light of the impact on U.S. national security of insufficient domestic, commercial space-launch capacity and competition, the Select Committee recommends that appropriate congressional committees report legislation to encourage and stimulate further the expansion of such capacity and competition.
High Performance Computers
The Select Committee supports the sale of computers to the PRC for commercial but appropriate dispute resolution pro- cedures. In order to achieve the foregoing, the Executive branch and the Congress should ensure that the Department of State has adequate personnel and resources devoted to processing export license applications.
18. CorrectiveTaxLegislationforSatelliteExports
To ensure that satellite manufacturers are not disadvantaged in such collateral areas as tax credits by the transfer to the State Department of responsibility to license satellite exports, the appropriate congressional committees should report necessary legislation.
19.
20. Defense Department, Not Satellite Firms, Should Be Responsible for Security at Foreign Launches
The Select Committee recommends that the appropriate congressional committees report legislation providing that, in connection with foreign launches of U.S. satellites, the Department of Defense shall contract for security personnel who have undergone back- ground checks to verify their loyalty and reliability. The number of guards shall be suf- ficient to maintain 24-hour security of the satellite and all related missile and other sensi- tive technology. The satellite export licensee shall, as a condition of licensure, be required to reimburse the Department of Defense for all associated costs of such security.
21. NeedforAdequateandPermanentForceofWellTrainedDefense Department Monitors

The Department of Defense shall ensure sufficient training for space launch campaign monitors and the assignment of adequate numbers of monitors to space launch cam- paigns. The Department of Defense also shall ensure continuity of service by moni- tors for the entire space launch campaign period, from satellite marketing to launch, and, if necessary, completion of a launch failure analysis. In addition, the Department of Defense shall adopt measures to make service as a monitor an attractive career opportunity.
22. NeedforFullandTimelyReportingofTechnologyPassedtoPRC,andof Foreign Launch Security Violations
The Department of Defense monitors shall maintain logs of all information autho- rized for transmission to the PRC, including copies of any documents authorized for transmittal, and reports on launch-related activities. Such information shall be trans- mitted on a current basis to the Departments of Defense, State, and Commerce, and to the Central Intelligence Agency. Such documents shall be retained for at least the
171

 SELECT COMMITTEE OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
 
 VOLUME III: Chapter 11
172
period of the statute of limitations for violations of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). In addition, the Department of Defense shall adopt clear written guidelines providing monitors the responsibility and the ability to report serious secu- rity violations, problems, and issues at the overseas launch site directly to the head- quarters office of the responsible Defense Department agency.
23. Application of Export Control Laws to Space Launch Insurers
The Select Committee recommends that relevant Executive departments and agencies ensure that the laws and regulations establishing and implementing export controls are applied in full to communications among satellite manufacturers, purchasers, and the insurance industry, including communications after launch failures.
24. Expansion of U.S. Launch Capacity in National Security Interest
In light of the impact on U.S. national security of insufficient domestic, commercial space-launch capacity and competition, the Select Committee recommends that appropriate congressional committees report legislation to encourage and stimulate further the expansion of such capacity and competition.“



“Why did it change back, gee, do you think it might have been because the Cox report recommended it?“

Are you reading your citation correctly? I have already told you, it ”changed back” to State Department licensure authority to enable adequate monitoring of national security concerns. I see nothing in the Cox report that you should take comfort in. It is a catalogue of Clinton screw ups.

“All that reads like "mistake" not Chinese Collusion to destroy America. As for the intelligence photo, I'm not qualified to make a determination about exactly what was revealed, or how important it was. This guy doesn't seem to think it was such a hot idea.”

Mistake? Where was the mistake? Clinton got exactly what he wanted. The “collusion” was between Bill, and Loral, to the benefit of Chinese ICBM reliability.

So, your final characterization of the 10cm optical resolution differential issue is; not “such a hot idea”.?

Why did you even bother with the matter of Trump’s alleged breach of national security? Clinton’s cluster screwup ultimately resulted in Iran’s ICBM program, and you started our exchange by claiming that mere exportation of “rocket” technology bothered you.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1464 on: September 16, 2020, 01:29:11 AM »
Deamon,

“While you are correct that Malaria is not a virus, it is a parasite infection, which is why some certain anti-malarial drugs were panned for many as anti-viral treatments for Covid19.“

Yes, panned inappropriately. Rogaine was created as a circulatory enhancement drug. That it also grew hair was incidental. Many drugs are dual use.

“And the sickle-cell anemia trait does not "benefit" from malaria infection, they're just less likely to be significantly impacted by a malarial infection than those without the sickl-cell trait as the sickle cells trait makes it difficult for the parasite to thrive.“

Yes, of course you are correct. It was an unintentional mental transposition on my part.

“It was an evolutionary response to malaria that provided increased chances of survival to reach reproductive age, that's all, it doesn't provide any other meaningful benefit, and actually a number of drawbacks.

It’s not only “that’s all”, it is the definition of evolutionary success.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1465 on: September 16, 2020, 02:37:12 AM »
Y-22,

“Noel before I jump down more rabbit holes with you lets nail this down.”

I assume that you mean this:

“So your claim is the virus will "disappear" when it becomes extinct following the population gaining herd immunity. And in your opinion that is consistent with Trump's claim of it "like a miracle, it will disappear"?“

It is a stretch to call the normal “disappearance“ of a virus a “miracle“. We do not have many laboratory samples of a virus closely related to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19); the SARS-CoV virus, from the 2003 corona virus outbreak, because it is “extinct” (disappeared) from the wild, but yes, I generally agree with your characterization.

“And that's assuming this virus mutates quickly or has long lasting immunity. Otherwise it could exist for decades or centuries, like measles, polio, smallpox and lots of other viruses that continue to exist in a fairly stable form over long periods of time.”

My assumption is based upon the genetic trajectory of similar viruses. Small genetic changes can make huge differences in clinical symptoms. The original Wuhan virus is distinguishable from the most common U.S. version by four genes, which relate to the external cell structures (corona). What makes SARS-CoV-2 so aggressive against vulnerable populations is a relatively stable “hairpin” shaped protein within the corona that is especially good at latching onto human cell walls.

Now your highest hopes/expectations might be correct. SARS-CoV-2 could be impossible to form “lasting“ immunity from, and the pathological external structures might be highly genetically stable. If that is the case, you will need to stop ragging on Trump. Not only herd immunity will fail, but so will a prospective vaccine, and SARS-CoV-2 will be with us forever.

That “small vulnerable” population niche will recruit all of us at about retirement age. And presto; the average age will drop dramatically. Social Security, and Medicare funding will be forever supported comfortably by a younger working population.

I don’t hope for that, but if it comes, I still want my country back. First the objective was to “flatten the curve” to match hospital bed capacity. The next artificial hurdle to normalcy was a universal vaccine that would save us all. Now we seem to be cultivating the “crisis is opportunity for radical change” formula coined by Rahm Emmanuel. Poverty is more than I want to pay for political utopia.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1466 on: September 16, 2020, 06:18:01 AM »
Quote
George, stocks are owned by everybody.

Succinct.  But this one actually explains a lot.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1467 on: September 16, 2020, 06:42:40 AM »
Quote
Doocy: I think a lot of your supporters are going, why on earth would the President of the United States sit down and talk to Bob Woodward, something like 18 times, on tape?

Trump: "Well, because I assumed he was a little bit fair. I didn't do it previously, he only writes bad books. And I actually got to read it last night, I read it very quickly and it was very boring. But there was not much in that book. ... That's a boring book."

This isn't a terribly important lie, but it is emblematic of things Trump just makes up and lies about for no apparent reason.  A man who doesn't have the ability to focus on more than single page memos (with graphics!) and who has bragged about not having any interest in reading, and not having time to read, would have us believe that he read a 480-page, "boring" book in one night.  A 73-year-old man who never practices reading would have us believe that he read, more quickly than the average reader, for 8 hours on the night before a town hall with undecided voters.

Is it possible that Trump is a secret speed reader, naturally reading several pages a minute without ever reading books during his normal life? Sure.  Kim Jung Il, late despot of North Korea and father of current dictator and Trump heart-throb Kim Jong Un, famously played his first and only ever round of golf at 38 under par for a gross score of 34.  Trump is probably that kind of a reader.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1468 on: September 16, 2020, 09:09:05 AM »
I do not have any problem getting the N-95,...

and from a different post

Quote
My point is that COVID-19 is not virulent (deadly), or even serious, in the vast majority of cases.

and from NPR today...

Quote
Six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. still isn't making enough N95 masks and other PPE to satisfy soaring demand.
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/16/913448230/npr-investigates-why-the-shortages-of-personal-protective-equipment

So you're buying up n95 masks (or things claiming to be similar) at 6x the price they were before the pandemic but its not a serious disease.

Quote
Do you understand that herd immunity is what will ultimately protect from, and extinguish, this particular strain?

Quote
I don’t hope for that, but if it comes, I still want my country back.

Why aren't you going out and getting sick to speed us towards herd immunity so you can get your country back? Or is the risk of getting sick and developing immunity for the plebes and you'll use your N95's to keep yourself safe until the pandemic is over?

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1469 on: September 16, 2020, 09:32:06 AM »
“And that's assuming this virus mutates quickly or has long lasting immunity. Otherwise it could exist for decades or centuries, like measles, polio, smallpox and lots of other viruses that continue to exist in a fairly stable form over long periods of time.”

My assumption is based upon the genetic trajectory of similar viruses. Small genetic changes can make huge differences in clinical symptoms. The original Wuhan virus is distinguishable from the most common U.S. version by four genes, which relate to the external cell structures (corona). What makes SARS-CoV-2 so aggressive against vulnerable populations is a relatively stable “hairpin” shaped protein within the corona that is especially good at latching onto human cell walls.

The virus only had a few paths out of China to Europe and America. Whichever strain made it got propagated but once established in a population any unsuccessful mutations will be out competed by the more infectious strain. You're expectation that random mutations that make the virus less contagious or virulent and that new strain will out compete the current strain is misguided, better keep waiting for Trump's miracle.

Quote
Now your highest hopes/expectations might be correct. SARS-CoV-2 could be impossible to form “lasting“ immunity from, and the pathological external structures might be highly genetically stable. If that is the case, you will need to stop ragging on Trump. Not only herd immunity will fail, but so will a prospective vaccine, and SARS-CoV-2 will be with us forever.

What BS. I don't hope the disease is bad or that mitigation will be ineffective. But there have been many reports that anti-bodies begin to fade after six months. And there is no reason to believe that a wide spread virus will have all its copies spontaneously mutate in ways that make the disease somehow less deadly or infectious. In fact I expect to need covid vaccine boosters yearly. Long term it may be included as part of the flu vaccine or become part of people's yearly physical. Because of the virus's ability to infect before the onset of symptoms or without symptoms this virus is likely going to be floating around in the world for a long time. The only way to eradicate it like SARS or MERS is to stop its spread everywhere simultaneously. Unless the world gets on board with a vaccine regime unlike anything we've ever been able to accomplish I don't see that happening.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1470 on: September 16, 2020, 09:44:22 AM »
Y-22,

“Noel before I jump down more rabbit holes with you lets nail this down.”

I assume that you mean this:

“So your claim is the virus will "disappear" when it becomes extinct following the population gaining herd immunity. And in your opinion that is consistent with Trump's claim of it "like a miracle, it will disappear"?“

It is a stretch to call the normal “disappearance“ of a virus a “miracle“.

We're making progress, "a stretch". Let's call it what it was a complete and total lie. It may be a lie we want to believe and I wish it were true but presidents need to deal with and communicate hard truths.

Quote
We do not have many laboratory samples of a virus closely related to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19); the SARS-CoV virus, from the 2003 corona virus outbreak, because it is “extinct” (disappeared) from the wild, but yes, I generally agree with your characterization.

And why did the 2003 corona virus outbreak end? Because most people developed symptoms prior to becoming infectious and there were only a very small number of typhoid Mary's that spread the disease. The world was able to isolate the few people spreading the disease and snuff it out. The virus didn't end through herd immunity or it randomly mutating into something less contagious like you're trying to claim will happen with covid-19. Can you name 1 virus that has randomly mutated into something less contagious or deadly without evolutionary pressures as a result of herd immunity?

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1471 on: September 16, 2020, 12:42:10 PM »
Why did you even bother with the matter of Trump’s alleged breach of national security? Clinton’s cluster screwup ultimately resulted in Iran’s ICBM program, and you started our exchange by claiming that mere exportation of “rocket” technology bothered you.

I don't know why I let you lead me down the Clinton road anyway, since what Trump did was either objectively wrong or right. It is entirely irrelevant how the evil Clinton was 9000x worse. That was three Presidents ago, and unlike the Trumpian right and QAnon, I am not obsessed with the Clintons.

Keep cackling about the 10cm, I'll leave you to it. Making the classified photo available served no legitimate purpose.

We can also talk about how he revealed Israeli intelligence to Russia, but I'm sure you've got lots of excuses ready for that one also.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1472 on: September 16, 2020, 12:42:43 PM »
Y/22,

“We're making progress, "a stretch". Let's call it what it was a complete and total lie. It may be a lie we want to believe and I wish it were true but presidents need to deal with and communicate hard truths.”

No, I will not go there with you.

“And why did the 2003 corona virus outbreak end? Because most people developed symptoms prior to becoming infectious and there were only a very small number of typhoid Mary's that spread the disease. The world was able to isolate the few people spreading the disease and snuff it out. The virus didn't end through herd immunity or it randomly mutating into something less contagious like you're trying to claim will happen with covid-19. Can you name 1 virus that has randomly mutated into something less contagious or deadly without evolutionary pressures as a result of herd immunity? Quote from: noel c. on September 15, 2020, 12:44:12 PM
I do not have any problem getting the N-95,...“


You are delusional if you believe that the 2003 outbreak was “isolated” into extinction, but let’s pretend, for the sake of argument, that you are right. Give me a clinical reference. You would probably assert that the 2012 MERS virus, also closely related, was similarly “disappeared” in the same manner, and you would be entirely speculating. Earlier you made reference to the “common cold”, as if it was a single virus. There are upwards of 200 identified viruses that cause the “common cold”. Around 40 of these are corona viruses, which is why you think there is no immunity. You are pulling an ill premised conclusion out of thin air.

“Quote
Six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. still isn't making enough N95 masks and other PPE to satisfy soaring demand.
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/16/913448230/npr-investigates-why-the-shortages-of-personal-protective-equipment


From Noel today; I have two new N-95 masks in my Jeep console for convenience, and use the N-95 everyday for work. If you need 10,000 or more, call me. I will give you multiple links to purchase your own.

“So you're buying up n95 masks (or things claiming to be similar) at 6x the price they were before the pandemic but its not a serious disease.”

No, I do not pay six times the cost, and you shouldn’t either.

“Why aren't you going out and getting sick to speed us towards herd immunity so you can get your country back? Or is the risk of getting sick and developing immunity for the plebes and you'll use your N95's to keep yourself safe until the pandemic is over?”

Funny that you should ask. I am part of the “herd“. It lasted four days, and was the most mild “cold” that I have ever had. The part of your statement that strikes me as funny is your confident assumption that I haven’t had COVID-19. Am I the only person on this forum who has first-hand knowledge of what is being discussed?

The only reason that I got tested is to protect a vulnerable family member. Why are you so emotionally invested in an Armageddon scenario?

“The virus only had a few paths out of China to Europe and America. Whichever strain made it got propagated but once established in a population any unsuccessful mutations will be out competed by the more infectious strain. You're expectation that random mutations that make the virus less contagious or virulent and that new strain will out compete the current strain is misguided, better keep waiting for Trump's miracle.”

You are totally winging your argument, but keep hope alive.

“What BS. I don't hope the disease is bad or that mitigation will be ineffective. But there have been many reports that anti-bodies begin to fade after six months.”

COVID-19 antibody response strength appears to be correlated with the severity of illness, to wit; the more affected, the greater the antibody response. Fortunately, this also means that a weak latent antibody response occurs in people who have no difficulty fighting off the infection in the first place, like me. Check your assumptions more carefully.

“And there is no reason to believe that a wide spread virus will have all its copies spontaneously mutate in ways that make the disease somehow less deadly or infectious.“

Right, and the “common cold” is your template, correct?

“In fact I expect to need covid vaccine boosters yearly. Long term it may be included as part of the flu vaccine or become part of people's yearly physical.“

This is the “flu vaccine” that cannot keep pace with genetic mutations, right?

“Because of the virus's ability to infect before the onset of symptoms or without symptoms this virus is likely going to be floating around in the world for a long time.”

Your bogus “containment” argument again, dressed in new clothes I presume?

“The only way to eradicate it like SARS or MERS is to stop its spread everywhere simultaneously.”

Unless you are wrong. Again, your imaginary containment theory is swaying your judgement.

“Unless the world gets on board with a vaccine regime unlike anything we've ever been able to accomplish I don't see that happening. “

Right, and you can blissfully anticipate the end of the world. Trump will be at fault, of course, just like climate change. This is the kind of shrill alarmism that is going to bury Democrats in about 40 days. Thanks for your contribution to Trump’s re-election. The average “undecided” voter just doesn’t believe you guys anymore.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1473 on: September 16, 2020, 12:56:46 PM »
Drake,

“I don't know why I let you lead me down the Clinton road anyway, since what Trump did was either objectively wrong or right. It is entirely irrelevant how the evil Clinton was 9000x worse. That was three Presidents ago, and unlike the Trumpian right and QAnon, I am not obsessed with the Clintons.”

You let me “... lead you down the Clinton road” because you believed a valid counter-argument could be made. Typical of black and white thinking, Trump is “objectivity wrong or right”. You will make better headway in a friendly argument if you follow your own advice, and presume that the “wrong guy” were your guy. If you want to take another bite at the apple it is fine with me.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1474 on: September 16, 2020, 01:13:29 PM »
“And why did the 2003 corona virus outbreak end? Because most people developed symptoms prior to becoming infectious and there were only a very small number of typhoid Mary's that spread the disease. The world was able to isolate the few people spreading the disease and snuff it out. The virus didn't end through herd immunity or it randomly mutating into something less contagious like you're trying to claim will happen with covid-19. Can you name 1 virus that has randomly mutated into something less contagious or deadly without evolutionary pressures as a result of herd immunity?"

You are delusional if you believe that the 2003 outbreak was “isolated” into extinction, but let’s pretend, for the sake of argument, that you are right. Give me a clinical reference.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext

Quote
The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 resulted in more than 8000 cases and 800 deaths. SARS was eventually contained by means of syndromic surveillance, prompt isolation of patients, strict enforcement of quarantine of all contacts, and in some areas top-down enforcement of community quarantine. By interrupting all human-to-human transmission, SARS was effectively eradicated.

https://biomedgrid.com/pdf/AJBSR.MS.ID.001017.pdf

Quote
In many ways, the 2003 SARS epidemic was an easy disease to
eradicate. Hospital access could be restricted, masks issued, borders
monitored, airports screened. Nevertheless, the fact that these steps
were undertaken at all, and successfully, should not be minimized.
If the biggest argument against declaring SARS eradicated is that it
was too easy, this is a good place to be in.

Do you have an alternate theory as to how SARS in 2003 was eliminated?

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1475 on: September 16, 2020, 01:37:05 PM »
Y-22,

“The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 resulted in more than 8000 cases and 800 deaths. SARS was eventually contained by means of syndromic surveillance, prompt isolation of patients, strict enforcement of quarantine of all contacts, and in some areas top-down enforcement of community quarantine. By interrupting all human-to-human transmission, SARS was effectively eradicated.“

Kudos for recognizing that this statement can be no more than a theory. It is impossible to control for unknowns, like the infected individuals who were not accounted for. I am sure health officials nonetheless indulged smug confidence that they had slain a dragon. People like to be important.

Yes, I have three alternate theories; the virus evolved into a non-virulent, non-infectious, or immunologically vulnerable derivative strain that will not make headlines, just as the “common cold” can do.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 01:39:16 PM by noel c. »

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1476 on: September 16, 2020, 01:50:44 PM »
Yes, I have three alternate theories; the virus evolved into a non-virulent, non-infectious, or immunologically vulnerable derivative strain that will not make headlines, just as the “common cold” can do.

Any clinical evidence anything like this actually occurred?

I gave you two links that show the best evidence of the epidemiological community are that the virus was eliminated via isolation because it wasn't highly contagious until symptoms were serious and obvious.

Epidemiologist do population studies on flu and other respiratory illnesses each year. In these studies they map the genomes of the diseases. Is it your contention is that SARs suddenly, with all active strains, mutated so much that it goes completely undetected for 20 years.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1477 on: September 16, 2020, 02:13:35 PM »
Y-22,

“Any clinical evidence anything like this actually occurred?”

Ah, now evidence matters to you!

Yes, again borne of personal experience; for decades, every time a “cold” makes its way through my family, not a single member gets reinfected despite exposure time-frames lasting for months. That can only be attributed to immune response, ie., immune vulnerability.

I am actually surprised you have not experienced the same thing.

“I gave you two links that show the best evidence of the epidemiological community are that the virus was eliminated via isolation because it wasn't highly contagious until symptoms were serious and obvious.”

You are blowing smoke into the wind. Your linked article presented no “evidence” meeting even loose standards of clinical proof. However, I am sure that the epidemiological community would be flattered by your devotion.

“Epidemiologist do population studies on flu and other respiratory illnesses each year. In these studies they map the genomes of the diseases. Is it your contention is that SARs suddenly, with all active strains, mutated so much that it goes completely undetected for 20 years.“

No infection, no detection, no proof. You cannot prove a negative, neither can a negative be proof. That said, such studies are extremely valuable where data can be generated.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 02:16:06 PM by noel c. »

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1478 on: September 16, 2020, 02:38:26 PM »
Quote
Quote
Yes, I have three alternate theories; the virus evolved into a non-virulent, non-infectious, or immunologically vulnerable derivative strain that will not make headlines, just as the “common cold” can do.
Any clinical evidence anything like this actually occurred?
Quote
Ah, now evidence matters to you!

Yes, again borne of personal experience; for decades, every time a “cold” makes its way through my family, not a single member gets reinfected despite exposure time-frames lasting for months. That can only be attributed to immune response, ie., immune vulnerability.

WTF does your family not being reinfected by a cold have to do with the SARS virus being eliminated by cutting off transmission of the virus from person to person. You realize its your bodies immune response that prevents reinfection, not some magic virus mutation that makes it inert after traversing your family.

And since the whole world didn't get SARS, your "evidence" is absurd. Are you high? Working for a Russian troll farm? Or just trying to waste everyone's time here? Because this conversation has become absurd.

Do you understand that when a virus mutates, it mutates in one person, not in all people that are infected simultaneously. So if a mutation makes the virus non-contagious that virus mutation dies off but in all the other people the virus continues to propagate.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1479 on: September 16, 2020, 03:22:10 PM »
Y-22,

“WTF does your family not being reinfected by a cold have to do with the SARS virus being eliminated by cutting off transmission of the virus from person to person. You realize its your bodies immune response that prevents reinfection, not some magic virus mutation that makes it inert after traversing your family.”

Yes, I realize that it is the bodies immune response that prevents reinfection. Do you realize that adaptive evolution works both ways regarding virulence? The “common cold“ that you worry is modified through the infection chain. It is not magic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-018-0055-5

“And since the whole world didn't get SARS, your "evidence" is absurd. Are you high? Working for a Russian troll farm? Or just trying to waste everyone's time here? Because this conversation has become absurd.”

Your proof is not proof, as invested as you are notwithstanding. Do you understand that?

“Do you understand that when a virus mutates, it mutates in one person, not in all people that are infected simultaneously. So if a mutation makes the virus non-contagious that virus mutation dies off but in all the other people the virus continues to propagate.“

Virulence is how transmission is detected in populations? If a virus mutates into a non, or less virulent form (not non-transmissible), it falls out of your data. Manage your emotional connection to a particular narrative a little better, you will come off as less prissy.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1480 on: September 16, 2020, 05:42:38 PM »
From The Jewish Telegraphic Agency.
Quote
WASHINGTON (JTA) — President Donald Trump spent much of his 20-minute call with American Jewish leaders making the case for more American Jews to vote for him. He closed by repeating a line that has raised their eyebrows before.

“We really appreciate you,” Trump said as he signed off the call, an annual pre-Rosh Hashanah presidential tradition. “We love your country also.”

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1481 on: September 16, 2020, 08:43:29 PM »
"the tougher and meaner they are, the better I get along with them,”

In his own words, guys. Recorded. So there's no "hey its an anonymous source", "hey its a never Trumper", "hey its the deep state", "hey its a disgruntled employee", "hey its a dishonest employee".

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1482 on: September 16, 2020, 10:04:04 PM »
Trump has cheated on every one of his wives.

Trump has abusive relationships with each of his children.

Maybe you don't like the big number of lies and misstatements Trump has made - but some of those lies are simply irrefutable ("I did not call John McCain a loser", "it is no worse than a seasonal flu", "it will go down to zero in a couple of weeks", "I did not have an affair with that woman" "I did not pay that woman to keep quiet about our affair")

Trump abused his position as owner of a beauty pageant in order to walk in on the naked girls while they were changing. Trump ogled young girls as his club (including the then fifteen year old daughter of Michael Cohen), described them sexually to other men in the area, told them how great their bodies turned out to their face, then told them that they would be dating their friends in a couple of years (all while married to wife #3).

Your definition of "good" is probably pretty flexible.  I doubt you think Bill Clinton is a good man, yet he hasn't done anything that Trump hasn't also done, in spades.

Boy, you have fallen for one item of fake news after another. First, everyone of Trump's wives have supported him and called him a "good man." Secondly, his children adore him and do not support your claims of "abusive" relationships.

Thirdly, if you alleged any one of those ("I did not call John McCain a loser", "it is no worse than a seasonal flu", "it will go down to zero in a couple of weeks", "I did not have an affair with that woman" "I did not pay that woman to keep quiet about our affair"), you could face a law suit for defamation of character. They have been verified in Trump's favor. Far from being irrefutable each of those points are moot. McCain was a loser, but Trump's replies to McCain attacks were less vehement than what McCain said about him. I don't know how you come back "twice as hard" without sounding mean, but Trump's little barbs have usually been on the mark and very effective. At the time Trump talked about the Wuhan Flu, the official medical reports were too early to frighten people over, and the WHO said it was nothing to worry about. Trump has been accused of affairs, and like most affluent targets paid attorneys to stop allegations that he has always denied.

These are some of those 20,000 lies, yet why not compare them to Schiff's "provable evidence of Russian collusion" that cost our country millions of dollars? Or Biden's plagiarism?

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1483 on: September 16, 2020, 10:16:50 PM »
Quote
if you take the blue states out, we're at a level I don't think anybody in the world would be at
Ignoring the inaccuracy of his assumptions (that Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee and Louisiana must be blue states) the overall sentiment, for a man who would continue to be the leader of the country, is just obscene.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1484 on: September 17, 2020, 09:50:51 AM »
Virulence is how transmission is detected in populations? If a virus mutates into a non, or less virulent form (not non-transmissible), it falls out of your data. Manage your emotional connection to a particular narrative a little better, you will come off as less prissy.

And by what mechanism are all copies of the virus (in different hosts) simultaneously mutating into something that out competes the infectious, virulent version in a way that remained completely undetectable to all health officials who were looking for it.

You have no evidence for your theory, which there should be evidence of if the virus just mutated in some small way, because it would still show up when scientist sequenced virus genomes.

Forget it, I give up on rational explanations with you. Just say the virus disappeared by magic. You are the perfect Trump supporter, you'll twist your perception of reality into any form so long as it benefits him.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1485 on: September 17, 2020, 10:03:20 AM »
And by what mechanism are all copies of the virus (in different hosts) simultaneously mutating into something that out competes the infectious, virulent version
And there's the rub.  What does "outcompete" even mean in this context?  Unless the new virus managed to "get to" all potential human hosts prior to or concurrently with exposure to the old virus, the old virus would still have reservoirs kicking around and infecting people.  The only way, statistically, for the old virus to be outperformed and to disappear would be once there was a herd level response to both viruses (assuming a similar immunity response throughout the population.)

But we know that the virus did not spread to a sufficient number of people for herd immunity to kick in.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1486 on: September 17, 2020, 10:10:55 AM »
Trump: I'm not looking to be dishonest. I don't want people to panic. And we are going to be OK. We're going to be OK, and it is going away. And it's probably going to go away now a lot faster because of the vaccines.
It would go away without the vaccine, George, but it's going to go away a lot faster with it.
Stephanopoulos: It would go away without the vaccine?
Trump: Sure, over a period of time. Sure, with time it goes away.
Stephanopoulos: And many deaths. (Trump didn't appear to hear that or ignored it)
Trump: And you'll develop -- you'll develop herd -- like a herd mentality. It's going to be -- it's going to be herd-developed, and that's going to happen. That will all happen.

There is some truth to the statement. Eventual after everyone who is going to die from covid dies... it will go away. Away as in no longer noticed 
It is unfortunately that Stephanopoulos didn't ask the follow up question with the number of acceptable deaths to get to Herd Immunity.

Herd mentality a Freudian slip?  Something Trump has cultivated and demands of his base?

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1487 on: September 17, 2020, 10:52:48 AM »
Trump's personal lawyer, Bill Barr:
Quote
"You know, putting a national lockdown, stay at home orders, is like house arrest. Other than slavery, which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history."

White Eurocentric much?

I'm not sure how he could have otherwise ignored Jim Crow, segregation, Japanese internment (literal imprisonment of entire communities for years), red lining, unequal policing of people of colour, unequal sentencing and incarceration, GI Bill discrimination in practice, the list goes on and on... and snowflakes are peeing their pants when being asked to wear masks, and to limit physical interactions with people for a few weeks.

Fenring

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1488 on: September 17, 2020, 01:31:32 PM »
I mean, he's basically correct, it's effectively universal martial law, which is totally unprecedented. Funny as it may sound, but racist segregation wasn't as far-reaching an effect as putting an entire nation on lockdown.

That said I would have been totally fine with a historically unprecedented breach of civil liberties in this case. In fact they could have literally declared martial law and I would have been clapping that a Western government could actually take real action to squash an outbreak. Call it a dress rehearsal for a more serious contagion one day, with 100% communicability and fatality.

The problem isn't partisan hypocrisy, or even Trump, but the actual fact that your average American would rather see the species exterminated than be told what to do.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1489 on: September 17, 2020, 01:54:33 PM »
I mean, he's basically correct, it's effectively universal martial law, which is totally unprecedented. Funny as it may sound, but racist segregation wasn't as far-reaching an effect as putting an entire nation on lockdown.

That said I would have been totally fine with a historically unprecedented breach of civil liberties in this case. In fact they could have literally declared martial law and I would have been clapping that a Western government could actually take real action to squash an outbreak. Call it a dress rehearsal for a more serious contagion one day, with 100% communicability and fatality.

The problem isn't partisan hypocrisy, or even Trump, but the actual fact that your average American would rather see the species exterminated than be told what to do.

I didn't experience the lock down as being 'martial law' but can see how some might.

'Your Average American would rather see the species exterminated than be told what to do' so true and many of those have no problem telling others what values the government should enforce everyone should live under. 

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1490 on: September 17, 2020, 02:06:23 PM »
I mean, he's basically correct, it's effectively universal martial law, which is totally unprecedented. Funny as it may sound, but racist segregation wasn't as far-reaching an effect as putting an entire nation on lockdown.

That said I would have been totally fine with a historically unprecedented breach of civil liberties in this case. In fact they could have literally declared martial law and I would have been clapping that a Western government could actually take real action to squash an outbreak. Call it a dress rehearsal for a more serious contagion one day, with 100% communicability and fatality.

The problem isn't partisan hypocrisy, or even Trump, but the actual fact that your average American would rather see the species exterminated than be told what to do.

Agree to a point. The correct procedure would have been for governors to put out proposals and ask citizens to do them voluntarily. If the contagion actually penetrated deeper than previous viruses, then martial law could have enabled more stringent encouragement. A between step may have been to enable actions with reinforcement or subtle bribes.

No one that I ever respected glorified "...Jim Crow, segregation, Japanese internment (literal imprisonment of entire communities for years), red lining, unequal policing of people of colour, unequal sentencing and incarceration, GI Bill discrimination in practice, etc." They were all bad practice and antithetical to our Constitutional Rights. All politician today would oppose them. They were mostly Democrat centrist ideas at one time, but no one supports them now.

Fenring

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1491 on: September 17, 2020, 02:16:40 PM »
I didn't experience the lock down as being 'martial law' but can see how some might.

That's no doubt because whatever lockdown you experiened wasn't nearly good enough  ;)

Fenring

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1492 on: September 17, 2020, 02:18:55 PM »
The correct procedure would have been for governors to put out proposals and ask citizens to do them voluntarily. If the contagion actually penetrated deeper than previous viruses, then martial law could have enabled more stringent encouragement. A between step may have been to enable actions with reinforcement or subtle bribes.

The between step is precisely the step that gets the virus massively spread, so that when you *do* have the real lockdown now you have people dying in their homes rather than staying safely in their homes. Generally you should assume that suggesting the proper course of action to people will result in little more than a few people doing it and resenting everyone else who doesn't care. By and large people won't make sacrifices unless you make them do it. in this case any not doing it is a complete failure.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1493 on: September 17, 2020, 03:12:19 PM »
Had Covid-19 been more like the Spanish flu and more deadly for those middle aged or if the virus had more of a impact on our children I suspect our willingness to lock-down and be our brothers keeper would be different.
Then again maybe not.

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1494 on: September 17, 2020, 04:02:24 PM »
Had Covid-19 been more like the Spanish flu and more deadly for those middle aged or if the virus had more of a impact on our children I suspect our willingness to lock-down and be our brothers keeper would be different.
Then again maybe not.

Nope. Just look at the actual Spanish Flu, and the anti-mask league from that era.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1495 on: September 18, 2020, 03:16:52 AM »
Y-22,

“And by what mechanism are all copies of the virus (in different hosts) simultaneously mutating into something that out competes the infectious, virulent version in a way that remained completely undetectable to all health officials who were looking for it.“

Your repeated focus upon the necessity for “simultaneous mutation“ is an irrational approach to the question. All genomic evolution is initiated through “individual” mutations, in an isolated host, that confer a reproductive benefit. Some of these reproductive enhancements come in tandem with reduced, or eliminated virulence, in which case the SARS-CoV-2 virus will “disappear” as a cause of COVID-19. Some mutations amplify virulence, which is only perpetuated if does not decimate its host specie. The balancing act between these two poles is complicated. I linked an article to help you understand it.

If the latter scenario applies to SARS-CoV-2, and it is everything that you fear (or hope), older people are just going to be eliminated disproportionately from the population regardless of anything Trump does, or does not do. You can stop blaming Trump, and look forward to a short retirement.

“You have no evidence for your theory, which there should be evidence of if the virus just mutated in some small way, because it would still show up when scientist sequenced virus genomes.”

The SARS-CoV-2 virus “mutated in some small way“ from SARS-CoV to cause COVID-19, and has mutated since the pandemic began in America to become identifiable as derivative of the original Wuhan strain. I though you already understood this. Are you asking for me to tell you which genetic sites will mutate next?

“Forget it, I give up on rational explanations with you. Just say the virus disappeared by magic. You are the perfect Trump supporter, you'll twist your perception of reality into any form so long as it benefits him.“

Hold yourself together. I have already conceded the possibility that you might get the outcome which you are cheerleading. Boo Trump... Go SARS-CoV-2! I will root for herd immunity to protect those that are vulnerable. If I am right you can at least take solace in knowing Trump is not responsible for that either.

I am curious; an N-95 mask cost $13.28 each on Amazon prior to the pandemic. You can get them for $7.89 each now, gratis my help.:  https://www.industrialsafetyproducts.com/3m-8212-particulate-respirator-n95-with-faceseal-10-box/

In the interest of everything socially responsible, have you ordered your own yet? ... Or would that spoil a good rant?

DD: “And there's the rub.  What does "outcompete" even mean in this context?  Unless the new virus managed to "get to" all potential human hosts prior to or concurrently with exposure to the old virus, the old virus would still have reservoirs kicking around and infecting people.  The only way, statistically, for the old virus to be outperformed and to disappear would be once there was a herd level response to both viruses (assuming a similar immunity response throughout the population.)

But we know that the virus did not spread to a sufficient number of people for herd immunity to kick in.“


Donald, “outcompete”, in a biological sense, always means acquisition of a reproductive advantage, by one specie occupying a specific ecological niche, over another. Viral mechanisms of random mutation, recombination, or reassortment serve their RNA evolutionary machinery much as the sexually mediated DNA race for dominance in higher animals. RNA viruses, the corona family included, are notorious for rapid evolution, and accumulation of amino acid mutations. For example; SARS-CoV-2 and its closest known relative, SARS-CoV, have a 5.4% genomic difference that accumulated randomly in only 18 years. For context; humans diverged from chimpanzees ~7.7 million years ago, accumulating a 1.2% genomic difference.

By your (faulty) reasoning, Neanderthals should still be “kicking around”. They remain present as genetic contributors to our genome, but strictly speaking “they” are extinct, even “magically” so.

OPEN QUESTION: Has anyone else on this site contracted SARS-CoV-2, and if the answer is yes, how did it effect you?
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 03:24:45 AM by noel c. »

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1496 on: September 18, 2020, 03:47:37 AM »
and snowflakes are peeing their pants when being asked to wear masks, and to limit physical interactions with people for a few weeks.

Define "a few weeks" please?

Considering we're nearly 6 months into this at this point, "a few weeks" happened a long time ago, and the goal posts moved away from "flatten the curve" in order to give medical services a chance to get equipped and figure out an effective treatment regime... To a quarantine regime that never ends because people have lost their minds on both sides of the equation.

The Right-wingnuts are crazy, and the Leftists are also just as bad on the other extreme.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1497 on: September 18, 2020, 03:55:51 AM »
'Your Average American would rather see the species exterminated than be told what to do' so true and many of those have no problem telling others what values the government should enforce everyone should live under.

A significant portion of them? Yes. Most of them? Probably not.

Conflating one thing with another does not make it so.

The Republican Party is "getting better" about casting off it's Reagan-Era "Christian Right" moral authoritarianism mantle.

Which part of the common Conservative/Libertarian position being "I want to exercise my right to be left alone and to take care of my own business, and if you're content to leave me alone, we won't have any problems." Do you find hard to understand?

If you don't poke the bear, it doesn't come out to attack you because you're getting involved in its affairs.

Yes, where "my business" intersects with "your business" creates issues that need to be addressed, but many of the Democratic solutions to those problems aren't solutions, they're edicts from on high.

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1498 on: September 18, 2020, 04:38:47 AM »
Donald,

Regarding your statement;  : ”But we know that the virus did not spread to a sufficient number of people for herd immunity to kick in.“,

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/unprecedented-nationwide-blood-studies-seek-track-us-coronavirus-spread

I do not think “we know” anything of the sort. Some people are serious about getting an answer to that question though. It is important to know.

I should probably modify a statement that I made earlier in regard to differences in antibody response as contrasted between those severely effected by COVID-19, and those who are mildly effected or even asymptomatic. No all antibodies are equal. In searching for a vaccine, researchers discovered that the most potent antibodies come from patients who were severely effected, a percentage of around 2% of total cases. Antibodies from people like me are pretty much useless as a vaccine because they are so weak in attacking the virus, however; my actual immune response was good enough that I did not need highly potent antibodies to manage the infection. I think the statements of alarmist certainty coming from the left are borderline hysteria, and counterproductive to public welfare.

There could be a large portion of the population who have been infected, but as yet unaccounted for in any epidemiological estimates on “herd immunity”. Initial generic infection propagation was estimated to be 2-3 people infected by every SARS-CoV-19 individual. The current infection U.S. infection rate is headed down, and had been for quite some time. :

See: graph u.s. covid infection rate
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 04:48:51 AM by noel c. »

noel c.

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #1499 on: September 18, 2020, 06:49:04 AM »
Select: Total U.S. infection rate. Graph indicates declining infection rate since mid-July:

https://g.co/kgs/axcptH