Alright, longish post but relevant. Adam Schiff told CNN’s State of the Union he saw no reason to call in more witnesses to publicly testify before the House Intelligence Committee. So we're at the end of the hearings ... at least the public ones. He could change his mind but for now, he's done. Even Chuck Todd knows there's a problem:
CHUCK TODD:
I want to put — I mean, you have all these open leads. It just seems odd that you’re stopping.
REP. ADAM SCHIFF:
Well, we’re not —
CHUCK TODD:
I mean, look at all these open leads.
REP. ADAM SCHIFF:
Yes, Chuck, it’s —
CHUCK TODD:
You have Bolton, you have the energy deal, the —
REP. ADAM SCHIFF:
It’s important to know we’re not stopping, but it’s also important to know this, Chuck, and you’ve acknowledged this, and I find this remarkable, the evidence is already overwhelming, right? The evidence is already overwhelming. The questions is not —
CHUCK TODD:
But you’re not in a courtroom. You know that.
REP. ADAM SCHIFF:
Well —
CHUCK TODD:
You have a political bar you have to meet.
Of course, everyone knows there's a problem. WaPo reporter Rachel Bade has the inside info on how some Democrats getting are “cold feet” as worries grow about public opposition to impeachment. You gotta understand, after 2 weeks of public hearings, support for impeachment has
declined signficantly:
According to the FiveThirtyEight average of national polls, support for impeachment has shrunk from 50.3 percent in mid-October to 46.3 percent presently, while opposition has risen from 43.8 percent to 45.6 percent.
Among independents in the FiveThirtyEight average, support for impeachment topped out at 47.7 percent in late October but has sunk to 41 percent over the past three weeks.
Almost 7% drop from the 538 guys. That means out in the real world it's probably quite a bit more than what they report. You can start to see the reality sinking in:
n Emerson University survey found an even more extreme flip among independents.
In October, independents supported impeachment 48 percent to 35 percent in Emerson’s polling. In the new poll released this week, independents opposed it by a 49 percent to 34 percent margin. In that time, overall support for impeaching Trump swung from 48 percent in favor and 44 percent against to 45 percent in opposition to impeachment and 43 percent in favor.
The latest Morning Consult survey was the third poll released this week to register a flip among independents. That survey also registered a new low among all voters in favor of impeachment at 48 percent.
But perhaps most alarming for Democrats is a new survey of Wisconsin from Marquette University. In Wisconsin, a key swing state in next year’s election, Marquette found that 40 percent supported impeaching Trump and removing him from office, while 53 percent opposed it. In October, before the hearings began, support was at 44 percent and opposition was at 51 percent.
Put 2 and 2 together and it's clear why Schiff is halting the public hearings. The Democrats are essentially seeing support for the shampeachment go into freefall and need to stop the hemorrhaging. Why, you may ask? Because it's hurting them, badly:
Vulnerable Democrats are watching in horror as GOP impeachment attacks deluge their districts back home. And they want a much stronger counteroffensive from their own party and its allies…
GOP-aligned outside groups have spent roughly $8 million on TV spots this cycle in battleground districts, such as Rep. Anthony Brindisi’s central New York seat. The vast majority of those ads specifically hammer Democrats over impeachment.
Meanwhile, swing-district Democrats are receiving little reinforcement from their own party or even other liberal coalitions. Democratic and pro-impeachment groups have spent about $2.7 million in TV ads, according to an analysis of spending by the ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics. And more than $600,000 of that total went to ads targeting Republican incumbents, not helping vulnerable Democratic members.
How do the vulnerable democrats phrase it? Well, like this:
“It’s like someone taped our arms to our side and punched us in the face,” groused one Democrat to Politico ...
Even Vanity Fair is starting to freak out.
So, it's bad. Real bad. It's blowing up just as everyone expected it to. What's the next step? Plans for impeachment were announced, literally, 19 minutes after Trump won. Russian collusion was a epic bust and the only thing that's an even bigger bust is the Ukraine one. Unfortunately, the left ignored Pelosi's attempt to retain some semblance of sanity and steamrolled her into letting the kangaroo court of Schiff and Friends to go forward.
There was bipartisan support against the hearings with 2 Democrats joining the Republicans - that should have been the flashing warning sign. Now, they're in quite the pickle. There are 233 Democrats in the House right now. 231 voted for the hearing and if less than 231 vote to move this forward (i.e. the bipartisan opposition actually grew), it hands Trump a bit of a victory and you know, you just know, how he'll tweet that and how he'll crow about the loss of support after the hearing shows it's nothing more than a hyperpartisan witch hunt. And God forbid she doesn't have the 218 votes to close the deal. The fallout of that would be an
epic failure. Pelosi has to get not the 218 but at least the same 231 or Trump gets a win.
But, then we go to the Senate. And you all know what's gonna happen there. The handpicked, coached, "witnesses" will be without Schiff protecting them. Schiff himself will be called to testify as will others on his staff. Joe and Hunter Biden will take the stand. The debacle of the house hearings, as demonstrated above, will pale in comparison to what happens to the Democrats once it moves out of their control and into the senate. Trump has reportedly asked for the impeachment to go forward just so he can fully engage in the fight. Trump and the Republicans will wreck what's left of the Democrats here. I know it, you know it, Pelosi knows it.
So what does she do? Not having the vote or losing the vote is a massive failure. Having the vote and winning it is
an even bigger failure. Democrats are in a lose-lose. Pelosi is pretty smart, she's been around the block so what's her way out?
She goes to the DNC media outlets and talks about how they got him, super proof, undeniable. By perfect witnesses. It's all obvious and real. The DNC media will eat this up and put it on full blast. Then she says, we can't go forward though. Those evil, corrupt, baby-eating, Republicans will simply not convict. And, through her perfect patriotism and that of Democrats, she holds the vote and goes for censure or something. All to save the country the embarrassment of acquiting Trump. I'm not saying she does this, just that it's a way out of the situation they've gotten themselves into with the least amount of damage.
Should be entertaining either way.
