British elections!

[DJQuag]

So we're having elections this side of the pond. Boris Johnson is gonna win despite being a dick.

I would totally vote Lib Dem however despite the historical record of my district being Labour I'm not comfortable leaving it in the hands of people who would vote for economic suicide. Which, you know, they did. Direct democracy sucks ass. Labour it is.

Unless they actually managed to get young voters to really buy in, it'll he a Tory government. God help us all.

[TheDrake]

Assuming you can even form a government. What would terrify me is that you go through the election and still have a hung parliament.

[D.W.]

When everyone wants to drive off a different cliff, maybe gridlock ain't so bad? 

[cherrypoptart]

If people want to express an opinion on the British election that's fine but unless you are British yourself I would urge caution not to let your opinion cross over into trying to influence their elections because this is the internet and that's bad, mkay?

Fortunately for me I am too confused about all of it to make a convincing go of influencing anyone in Britain about the British elections. All I can say is I do wish y'all well. I will pay close attention though in the hopes of maybe learning something.

[TheDrake]

I would urge caution not to let your opinion cross over into trying to influence their elections because this is the internet and that's bad, mkay?

I'm pretty sure none of us work for the US government. 

[TheDrake]

What? (emphasis mine)

Critics have raised doubts about his trustworthiness - an important question, given that Johnson is trying to assure voters that he can get the UK out of the European Union by the end of January and then follow that up with successful negotiation for a new trade relationship.

They cite a string of broken promises or misleading statements, including on healthcare and his Brexit plan for Northern Ireland. He has also been criticised for refusing to discuss the number of children he has, an issue that was even picked up in the US media.

Okay....

[Wayward Son]

ElectoralVote.com has a good summary of what's up (for those on the west side of the pond).

The general consensus seems to be that this is one of those elections that the United States seems to have so often these days, where voters will be choosing the less problematic of two bad options. On one side are the Conservatives and Boris Johnson. His flaws are pretty well known, but just in case anyone has forgotten: He's a nativist and populist who abuses his power and has been guilty of what the Guardian describes as "breathtaking hypocrisy." He's also hardly a model of ideal behavior in private; he alienates the people he works with, is allegedly somewhat lazy, and has been credibly accused of having a child from an extramarital affair, and then pretending that child does not exist. Should he be sustained, he's going to try to ram through a Brexit deal that makes very few people happy, as it keeps the UK tied to the other EU countries in many ways, except without a lot of the benefits of actual EU membership, such as having a say in crafting EU policies.

Alternatively, folks could check their ballots for Labour. That would put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing Street. Corbyn, however, has quite a few flaws of his own. To start, the fact that he and his party are not surging despite 10 years of shaky Conservative leadership and plenty of "throw the bums out" sentiment speaks to Corbyn's rather low popularity. In fact, he has the lowest approval ratings of any major British politician of the last decade, and has shown no ability whatsoever to expand his (or Labour's) appeal beyond hard-core supporters. He has also done a lousy job of responding to anti-Semitism in his own party, with the result that Jewish voters have taken an "anyone but Corbyn" attitude heading into Thursday's balloting. If Corbyn is elected, he has promised to cancel Brexit without holding a new referendum. Given that about 50% of the populace has remained steadfast in their support of Brexit, that will be an unpopular move, to say the least.

There are no other parties in the U.K. that, right now, have a plausible path to a majority in Parliament. Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, has far less baggage than Johnson or Corbyn, but the premiership is not in her immediate future (and is probably not in her distant future, either). The best projection available suggests that Johnson is not only going to remain in power, but that he'll pick up 25-30 seats in Parliament, which will allow him to pass his Brexit deal. Of course, polling British parliamentary elections is always a tricky business, and you should never take anything to the bank until the ballots are counted. Still, if Johnson does win convincingly, then that will likely be the end of the line for Corbyn as Labour leader. Undoubtedly, the Party is wishing it had its old leader, Ed Miliband, back. Not only was he more moderate and more popular, he is also Jewish.

Good luck, Quang, deciding between the rock and the hard place.

[Fenring]

Good luck, Quang

I voted for Quodos

[Pete at Home]

It’s hard to be left wing in Europe without being anti Semitic. Hell, in Germany burning down a synagogue because you don’t like Jews is “not a hate crime” if you’re Muslim. Hope that judge gets heiled. 

[Seriati]

So the polls are closed and the exit polls released. If they hold accurate it looks like the Conservatives will have a massive majority, with Labour at it's worst showing in decades.

[DJQuag]

ElectoralVote.com has a good summary of what's up (for those on the west side of the pond).

The general consensus seems to be that this is one of those elections that the United States seems to have so often these days, where voters will be choosing the less problematic of two bad options. On one side are the Conservatives and Boris Johnson. His flaws are pretty well known, but just in case anyone has forgotten: He's a nativist and populist who abuses his power and has been guilty of what the Guardian describes as "breathtaking hypocrisy." He's also hardly a model of ideal behavior in private; he alienates the people he works with, is allegedly somewhat lazy, and has been credibly accused of having a child from an extramarital affair, and then pretending that child does not exist. Should he be sustained, he's going to try to ram through a Brexit deal that makes very few people happy, as it keeps the UK tied to the other EU countries in many ways, except without a lot of the benefits of actual EU membership, such as having a say in crafting EU policies.

Alternatively, folks could check their ballots for Labour. That would put Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing Street. Corbyn, however, has quite a few flaws of his own. To start, the fact that he and his party are not surging despite 10 years of shaky Conservative leadership and plenty of "throw the bums out" sentiment speaks to Corbyn's rather low popularity. In fact, he has the lowest approval ratings of any major British politician of the last decade, and has shown no ability whatsoever to expand his (or Labour's) appeal beyond hard-core supporters. He has also done a lousy job of responding to anti-Semitism in his own party, with the result that Jewish voters have taken an "anyone but Corbyn" attitude heading into Thursday's balloting. If Corbyn is elected, he has promised to cancel Brexit without holding a new referendum. Given that about 50% of the populace has remained steadfast in their support of Brexit, that will be an unpopular move, to say the least.

There are no other parties in the U.K. that, right now, have a plausible path to a majority in Parliament. Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, has far less baggage than Johnson or Corbyn, but the premiership is not in her immediate future (and is probably not in her distant future, either). The best projection available suggests that Johnson is not only going to remain in power, but that he'll pick up 25-30 seats in Parliament, which will allow him to pass his Brexit deal. Of course, polling British parliamentary elections is always a tricky business, and you should never take anything to the bank until the ballots are counted. Still, if Johnson does win convincingly, then that will likely be the end of the line for Corbyn as Labour leader. Undoubtedly, the Party is wishing it had its old leader, Ed Miliband, back. Not only was he more moderate and more popular, he is also Jewish.

Good luck, Quang, deciding between the rock and the hard place.

Don't think this is quite fair. What Corbyn promised was that the Labour party would present its own deal in a referendum with the other choice being no Brexit. That's a far shout from canceling it with no referendum.

I suspect they mixed up his position and Jo Swinson's.  (Lib Dems.) They did indeed flat out say they would revoke Brexit without a referendum if elected.

[DJQuag]

It’s hard to be left wing in Europe without being anti Semitic. Hell, in Germany burning down a synagogue because you don’t like Jews is “not a hate crime” if you’re Muslim. Hope that judge gets heiled.

I mean, it's not really hard for me.

I still maintain you can speak out against Israel's actions without being labeled anti Semitic.

Did those people get punished for arson? I'm not the biggest fan of hate crime legislation so I'll admit I'm not all that bothered if they got done for that. I'd be very surprised if they burned down a building and got away with it.

[DJQuag]

So the polls are closed and the exit polls released. If they hold accurate it looks like the Conservatives will have a massive majority, with Labour at it's worst showing in decades.

Worst showing since 1935.

Is what it is. I'm against public referendums in general but the public have chosen their representatives. I'll respect that.

I'll also have an uncomfortable amount of schadenfreude when the poor and uneducated who fell for this begin to reap what they sowed. The same people I've had to listen to talk about how we'll be free. L-o-shoot-me-now-l.

Tory deal keeps us on EU regs outside of keeping brown and Slav people out the country and in return we get to still follow the rest of the EU regs without being one of the three most important countries making those decisions.

Let me be clear, I'm going to suffer as well. I'm not rich enough not to. I may even suffer in ways beyond losing my pension, seeing as how the Tories have spent the past 10 years weakening the social safety net and we're about to enter a self imposed economic contraction.

Oh well, least I'll have the comfort of an "I told you so."

[Wayward Son]

Guess who may also suffer from this decision?  Donald Trump.

Anyhow, ever since the U.K. voted for Brexit back in June 2016, there's been at least some doubt as to whether or not it would actually happen. Given the mandate and the majority that Johnson has just been handed, there is no doubt anymore. The U.K. is going, likely at the end of next month. Then, Johnson will try to negotiate what comes next, working from what certainly appears to be a position of weakness. In the short term, that will hit the British economy hard, and will likely send it into recession. The shockwaves from that, in turn, could drag the EU and the world economy down. It is not at all impossible that this plays out over a very short time, say six months. And if the U.S. goes into recession just months before the 2020 elections, well, that would be very big news, indeed.

Donald's support has been locked at a bit over 40 percent since mid-2018.  The economy is one of his major selling points, if not his only major selling point.  If that tanks just before the election...?  His supporters don't care that much about details (or else they wouldn't give him so much credit--*cough**cough*Trade wars*cough**cough*), so his blaming the Democrats, the Fed, the world economy, the weather, the Patriots, etc. just won't fly very far.

And if he wins...he'll be totally responsible, even if a recession doesn't hit until after the election.

So we'll see how that influences the next impeachment proceedings (you do know he's not going to stop ignoring the law just because the Senate acquits him, right?) if he's even more unpopular than he is now.

The UK's decision may be the camel that break's his straw back.

[yossarian22c]

And if he wins...he'll be totally responsible, even if a recession doesn't hit until after the election.

That's hilarious. The recession, if one comes, will totally be Nancy Pelosi's fault, or maybe the feds, or maybe China, or maybe the EU, your delusional if you think Trump or Trump's base* will ever allocate any responsibility for failure to him.

Trump's base is not referring all Republicans or everyone on the right, but only his hard core supporters.

[Wayward Son]

True, yossarian, that Trump's hard-core base will never blame their Fearless Leader for anything that goes wrong.  But I very much doubt that his 40 percent support is composed entirely of his hard-core base.

Those who are soft-core will likely respond to a recession by blaming him, if only partially.  And how much influence and bullying can he do if his support is in the 30s or 20s percentage?  The Republican congressmen will still be worried about the next election, even if Trump isn't.

[ScottF]

Regardless of where the blame might fall, let's just hope this good economy goes in the crapper soon so the dems have a chance to fix it.

[ScottF]

There’s a comedy club in the UK that has announced you’re no longer welcome there if you voted conservative. The reason? It’s a place that focuses on inclusion. Can’t make this up.

[TheDrake]

There’s a comedy club in the UK that has announced you’re no longer welcome there if you voted conservative. The reason? It’s a place that focuses on inclusion. Can’t make this up.

I call it brilliant marketing.

Comedy-by-Bow, a free weekly open-mic night gig in an East London pub,  has vowed that anyone who voted Conservative is ‘fundamentally incompatible’ with its values.

‘Be aware that if you are a Tory voter you are no longer welcome to perform here. You can have your own "free speech zones" somewhere else, because there will not be a platform for you here.

The way you wrote it sounds like they were banning everyone from the premises.

[ScottF]

My bad. I guess it makes sense they're only banning performers. Logistically it would be more difficult to ban audience members unless they wore some kind of identifying clothing or expressed their thoughts out loud.

[Fenring]

My bad. I guess it makes sense they're only banning performers. Logistically it would be more difficult to ban audience members unless they wore some kind of identifying clothing or expressed their thoughts out loud.

Heh, it's even more mercenary with only a performer ban. Basically 'we'll take your money, but give you no voice.'

[yossarian22c]

There’s a comedy club in the UK that has announced you’re no longer welcome there if you voted conservative. The reason? It’s a place that focuses on inclusion. Can’t make this up.

I call it brilliant marketing.

Comedy-by-Bow, a free weekly open-mic night gig in an East London pub,  has vowed that anyone who voted Conservative is ‘fundamentally incompatible’ with its values.

‘Be aware that if you are a Tory voter you are no longer welcome to perform here. You can have your own "free speech zones" somewhere else, because there will not be a platform for you here.

The way you wrote it sounds like they were banning everyone from the premises.

This is only slightly less obnoxious. Societies that bifurcate in this way are fundamentally unstable. People should talk and socialize together in real life, it is a moderating influence on the way the extremes get the most attention and loudest voices through the media and social media.

[Wayward Son]

Regardless of where the blame might fall, let's just hope this good economy goes in the crapper soon so the dems have a chance to fix it.

Well, somebody has to fix it! 

I suppose you'd prefer we just wait quietly while Trump's policies put the economy in the crapper.  Then he could blame us for not warning him that it would happen. 

[TheDeamon]

The economy is going to hit a "bust" cycle eventually anyway, I'm amazed it hasn't hit yet.

We had anemic growth under Obama for 8 years, and 3 years of growth under Trump so far. We're due to hit the rocks on that eventually and experience a contraction cycle. Yes, a lot of economic activity was being effectively suppressed by the Obama Admin, deliberately or not. But I'm not sure that there was that much suppressed activity waiting to occur. We shall see if Trump can get re-elected before the market hits the inevitable correction cycle.

I hope he does, because the current slate of Democrats would all but ensure it'll be an economic depression should they get into office.

[DJQuag]

One viewpoint on a decade of Tory rule.

https://youtu.be/MjUWX6S8iYU

[Crunch]

Regardless of where the blame might fall, let's just hope this good economy goes in the crapper soon so the dems have a chance to fix it.

Well, somebody has to fix it! 

I suppose you'd prefer we just wait quietly while Trump's policies put the economy in the crapper.  Then he could blame us for not warning him that it would happen. 

While Trump’s policies put the economy in the crapper!? This is delusional, clinically delusional.  Have you seen the current economic numbers?

[TheDeamon]

I suppose you'd prefer we just wait quietly while Trump's policies put the economy in the crapper.  Then he could blame us for not warning him that it would happen. 

While Trump’s policies put the economy in the crapper!? This is delusional, clinically delusional.  Have you seen the current economic numbers?

The partisan slant he's going for notwithstanding, it is a well understood thing that how people feel the economy is doing right now plays a significant role in how many voters decide to vote. If the economy is widely perceived to be on the skids on election day, the incumbent(Trump) will get the electoral flak for it, even if it was runaway awesome for all but the last couple of months prior to election day.

[ScottF]

We're certainly due for a correction and if the dems somehow manage to win in 2020, they will most likely be the party in power when it happens.

Of course one of the oldest political shell games is that both good and bad economies aren't created but inherited, depending what side you're on.

I think there are policies that can definitely have dramatic macroeconomic effects but mostly what we observe in the US are the normal swings of a fundamentally strong but cyclical economy. The only way that changes dramatically is if one party decides that the fundamentals themselves are "wrong", despite the century-long trend of overall prosperity.