Author Topic: Question for Hillary supporters  (Read 1896 times)

D.W.

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Question for Hillary supporters
« on: February 26, 2016, 01:52:14 PM »
http://static.currentaffairs.org/2016/02/unless-the-democrats-nominate-sanders-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency

So I just read through this.  More and more I'm in the Bernie camp and this whole piece is quite possibly 'telling me what I want to hear'.  I was wondering if anyone leaning towards (or fully supporting) Hillary takes issue with the conclusions drawn and theories put forward in this piece. 

Short version:
Trump vs. Clinton, he makes it all about attacking her and will avoid policy.  Her history makes her an easy mark for unsubstantiated accusations as well as cherry picking factual tidbits that can be used to make her look bad.

Trump vs. Sanders, Trump doesn't have the material to work with and the things in the negative column for Sanders still look pretty good when compared to Trump.

The author even admits that this dynamic changes if Trump is not the GOP candidate, but it was interesting and their, "here's how I think it would go" seems plausible.

AI Wessex

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2016, 02:28:43 PM »
I didn't read the article, but your short summary is familiar.  My reaction is:

* Trump has far more skeletons in the closet than Clinton.  His business dealings and outrageous statements are well-known and provable.  Clinton's are mostly based on suspicion.  He can't just say "Everybody knows she's a liar" and convince very many independent voters who don't already think that and think that is the most important thing to know about her.  He'd have to bring comparable proof of her failings to the table to offset his own.  He also has a long history of making strange claims about politicians, most famously promoting himself as Birther in Chief regarding Obama.  Unless you are already committed to believing those lies they work against his credibility.

* Bernie is a liability for independents and many Democrats because like Trump he simply can't deliver on his promises.  Even a Democratic Senate won't agree with many of his proposed policies, because they undercut their own financing base.  If (Praise Be!) the House also swings to Democratic control I think he would have an even harder time wrestling the votes he needs.  So far 40 Senators have endorsed Clinton, none for Bernie.

* Trump disqualifies himself because virtually every campaign promise he has made so far is just fantasy.  The President of Mexico told him to go *censored* himself, to which Trump responded that the wall just got 10 feet higher.  Uh, ok, I think...? I still think he will top out at about 40-50% of Republicans, and may bring another 10% (of Independents) to vote for him as protest votes against Hillary, but I can't see him pulling in any of the groups he's diligently denigrated, insulted and ignored.  That leaves him with a small majority of voters in his own party, few Independents and no Democrats.  OTOH, David Duke (KKK) just endorsed him, so maybe that's another few 100 votes that won't go to Clinton or Sanders in what are already red states.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2016, 02:31:22 PM by AI Wessex »

D.W.

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2016, 02:36:39 PM »
Part of the "analysis" is that criticism of Trump has no effect.  He in fact revels in it.  Hillary, unlike Trump cares, (or knows she must appear to care) enough to refute the negatives/attacks.

Something that should sound like nonsense, yet is somehow relevant this election cycle.

Pete at Home

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2016, 02:41:36 PM »
Quote
The President of Mexico told him to go *censored* himself, to which Trump responded that the wall just got 10 feet higher.

The current president of Mexico is a Cartel collaborator who disarms and jails citizens who put up any resistance to his cartel kleptocracy.  Ask the people of Michoacan.  President Nieto is the poster boy for putting a wall between America and Mexico, and that has nothing to do with immigration.

The Autodefensas group took down the Templars cartel, but Nieto disarmed the Autodefensas, jailed the leaders that wouldn't be corrupted, and boot-started a new cartel called "los viagras" which now makes and trafficks Meth to the US.  The fact that Trump has exchanged harsh words with Nieto is the first good thing I've heard about him.  Obama's been a complete pussy on the Cartels.  But so were his predecessors.  Carter was the last president to speak truth to Mexican government corruption.

NobleHunter

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2016, 02:45:55 PM »
Another factor not to neglect about Trump is that he may energize the opposition. While Clinton lacks the grassroots passion of Sanders and Obama, she might pick up enough energy from being the opponent to Trump. He's basically perfect for Democratic fear-mongering and has no viable defense.

Pete at Home

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2016, 03:30:14 PM »
Another factor not to neglect about Trump is that he may energize the opposition. While Clinton lacks the grassroots passion of Sanders and Obama, she might pick up enough energy from being the opponent to Trump. He's basically perfect for Democratic fear-mongering and has no viable defense.

Yes.  I noted that from day 1. Trump's unexpected entry was very convenient for Mrs. Clinton . a wet dream come true.  The Clinton blue fairy godmother has delivered again.

AI Wessex

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2016, 04:43:06 PM »
Quote
The current president of Mexico is a Cartel collaborator who disarms and jails citizens who put up any resistance to his cartel kleptocracy.  Ask the people of Michoacan.  President Nieto is the poster boy for putting a wall between America and Mexico, and that has nothing to do with immigration.
What possible relevance does that have?  Trump's a gangsta mogul, so it's mano a dono.

Pete at Home

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2016, 08:22:49 PM »
Quote
The current president of Mexico is a Cartel collaborator who disarms and jails citizens who put up any resistance to his cartel kleptocracy.  Ask the people of Michoacan.  President Nieto is the poster boy for putting a wall between America and Mexico, and that has nothing to do with immigration.
What possible relevance does that have? 

To the original question to Hillary supporters?  None.  To your post that I was responding to?  Simply that I found one of your arguments less persuasive than the others.

Quote
Trump's a gangsta mogul, so it's mano a dono.

You're comparing a Bugsy Siegal to a Mussolini, there.  Not persuasive.

yossarian22c

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2016, 08:40:16 PM »
While I agree that Clinton is the more centrist and moderate candidate I don't expect her to be able to accomplish any more of her agenda than Obama has been able to get through the last 4 years.  The Republican obstruction (while occasionally ideological) has largely been just to not let Obama get "a win".  I don't see that dynamic changing at all for a Clinton presidency, no matter how pragmatic she says she is going to be.  Sanders won't accomplish any of his agenda with a Republican controlled congress either but he does significantly move the starting point of negotiations to the left and that may be the most either of the two of them could accomplish with the current make up of congress.

yossarian22c

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2016, 08:49:21 PM »
But in terms of beating Trump, I expect both of them would.  Sanders/Rubio would be a much closer match. 

Fenring

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Re: Question for Hillary supporters
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2016, 01:48:22 AM »
Part of the "analysis" is that criticism of Trump has no effect.  He in fact revels in it.  Hillary, unlike Trump cares, (or knows she must appear to care) enough to refute the negatives/attacks.

Something that should sound like nonsense, yet is somehow relevant this election cycle.

This is my thought as well. Trump not only has massive amounts of material on Hillary already, but can make use of any attack she levies against him to his advantage. I don't think she's smart enough to remain in her own corner and refuse to throw punches. On the contrary; I think Hillary is so egocentric that she won't be able to stop herself lobbing shots at Trump only to find them deflected back at her with interest. Even though by now she must know for certain that negative campaigning against him will only help him and that trying to win an insult war with him is futile, she will do it anyhow. The victory between them would come down to who can smear the other better, which more specifically means how well Hillary adapts to his approach. If she botches it she'll lose, and a headstrong approach could very well botch it.

Sanders, on the other hand, has nothing substantial in his personal life to pick apart, and in fact his public life has been decent enough that even approaching that topic would only help him. Trump could, of course, go after him for not being a political power player, but that's a wash since neither is Trump. It's a card that Hillary could pull against Sanders, but Trump cannot. We also know that Sanders refuses to campaign negatively, and even when he feels another candidate has done something wrong he is very hesitant to publicly criticize them for it (see: DNC software malfunction). In effect, Sanders would give Trump no ammunition to shoot back, and would never fall for being manipulated into rebutting insults Trump throws at him. This leaves the content of the potential race between them being between the actual issues, and that is exactly where Trump would go after him. Trump would go after the word SOCIALIST from square one and would never let up on that subject no matter what Sanders replies. Trump might go after his age or something, but most attacks by Trump would be against Bernie's actual proposals - which is a good thing! It would mean that the election would boil down to what the voters think about the issues. I would call that a good result, either way.

If it's Trump-Clinton it will come down to who's better at media wars, and frankly I don't like her chances there. She cannot effectively out-demagogue him, so I'm not sure her chances are so great as some people think they would be. Even if the conspiracy theory is true that Trump was a Clinton plant that would surely cease to be relevant should Trump win the candidacy. All bets would be off and he'd he out to destroy her.

If it's Trump-Sanders I feel it would come down to the debate on the issues, and incidentally I think the debates would be a lot more interesting between these two than between Trump and Hillary. In any case they would be a lot more respectable. Another point I'll make about this match-up is that both Trump and Sanders have branded themselves as outsiders who are against business as usual in Wall Street in politics, super-pacs, and lobbying. They both don't take pac donations, both want to revisit the idea of trade deals that export American jobs (they are both against TPP), and both want to help the middle class. In fact these two have more in common that it would at first appear, and should they go up against each other the areas where they agree (of which I think there are many) would be a total wash and they'd each have to focus on the other areas in order to differentiate themselves from each other. And here's were it gets interesting, since the areas where they disagree are in military policy (Trump wants to increase military spending, Sanders not), immigration policy (obviously), and all of the 'socialist' issues Bernie believes in. Meaning - they'll be forced to discuss the issues that are actually most contentious.