Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752

[TheDeamon]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042326

And:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/boeing-ntsb-likely-won-t-investigate-tehran-plane-crash-killed-n1112416

The video NBC presents, assuming that is authentic, indicates to me a likely missile strike on the plane. 737's aren't known for exploding like that, even when an engine fails(which has happened before), fireballs in the sky accompanied by the plane plummeting to the ground aren't the normal outcome.

And of course, Iran doesn't want the US involved, and may not be particularly cooperative with the Ukrainians for whom the plane was owned and operated. Will be "interesting" to see how this one plays out, and how badly the Iranians stage-manage this as they're presumably trying to figure out how to avoid admitting their air defenses may have brought it down.

In another respect, it seeming to bear a resemblance to the USS  Vincennes, only it presumably being the Iranians doing the shooting makes for an odd symmetry.

[Pete at Home]

Were there us citizens on that plane?

[TheDeamon]

Were there us citizens on that plane?

Nope, a lot of Iranians, Ukranians, and Canadians though.

[Pete at Home]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada–Iran_relations#Resumption_of_diplomatic_relations_under_Khamenei

[TheDeamon]

The BBC article says the passenger nationality counts were:
82 Iranian citizens.
63 Canadian citizens
11 Ukrainian citizens (likely to be mostly the air crew, given the airline is from Ukraine)
10 Swedish citizens
4 Afghani
3 Brits
and 3 Germans

The BBC also notes:

Iran's head of emergency operations said 147 of the victims were Iranian. That would suggest that 65 of the foreign nationals had dual nationalities.

[Pete at Home]

Well that would seem to bring the total of 205 Iranian human sacrifices on Soleimani’s pyre. And counting?

A pox on anyone who uses “look what we made them do” logic and blames that on Trump.

[Kasandra]

Well that would seem to bring the total of 205 Iranian human sacrifices on Soleimani’s pyre. And counting?

A pox on anyone who uses “look what we made them do” logic and blames that on Trump.

How about we just wait to find out more about what actually happened before triangulating to figure out who and how much to blame.

[TheDrake]

Not making a statement about this event, but worth noting that sanctions against Iran prevent Boeing from selling parts or new aircraft.

[DonaldD]

It was a Ukraine International Airline plane... Iran sanctions wouldn't have been a factor

[TheDeamon]

Not making a statement about this event, but worth noting that sanctions against Iran prevent Boeing from selling parts or new aircraft.

It could be something like what happened with TWA Flight 800 back in 1996, where an electrical short in a fuel tank caused a Boeing 747 to explode just 12 minutes after takeoff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TWA_Flight_800

But I'd be highly surprised to find that a 3 year old 737-800 would have the same kind of defect present, and the timing on the event is uncanny.

We do know something exploded for some reason, and whatever it was that exploded, it caused a catastrophic failure as telemetry and communications went down the moment it happened. 

Obviously, an over-eager person manning Air Defense would make the easiest suspect. as the US itself can attest to, with when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airbus. Which is something I do know a bit more about considering I wound up getting a partial brief on the circumstances involving one specific aspect so we could attempt to do a tech consult for National Geographic's 2005 presentation on the matter. (They didn't include our stuff, but anyhow..)

The air traffic control situation today should be very different now than it was when I last was involved in things 10+ years ago, but I do know that we were more than a little concerned about it changing too fast for the United States Military to keep its own systems sufficiently up to speed. Thankfully there are several other protections in place for our shooters now compared to 1988--but that does nothing for Iran's capabilities or lack thereof. I can only imagine how far behind the curve Iran is, due to sanctions if nothing else.

Which now leaves me wondering if Iran just found themselves living though the "nightmare scenarios" myself and several of my co-workers at the time were contending with back around 2007, only we were afraid it'd be a US Navy Ship doing the shooting, again. As there were concerns about the proposed process for rolling out Mode S in some parts of the world even then.

https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Mode_S

Given a lot of Iran's air defense systems likely date back to the 1980's (if not earlier), their inability to cope with a civil aviation beacon system introduced less than 15 years ago would hardly be shocking.

[Grant]

The video NBC presents, assuming that is authentic, indicates to me a likely missile strike on the plane.

I saw nothing in the video that indicated a missile strike. 

[TheDeamon]

The video NBC presents, assuming that is authentic, indicates to me a likely missile strike on the plane.

I saw nothing in the video that indicated a missile strike.

It suggests "an explosive failure" of some flavor. Missiles are the most likely, unless you're behind the missile or in sight of the launch site, you won't see it at night. Less than 8,000 feet is also under the "ceiling" for most air defense systems.

[Pete at Home]

. Obviously, an over-eager person manning Air Defense would make the easiest suspect. as the US itself can attest to, with when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airbus.

Worse. Some dumb frackhead set a system on automatic. 

[TheDeamon]

The video NBC presents, assuming that is authentic, indicates to me a likely missile strike on the plane.

I saw nothing in the video that indicated a missile strike.

It suggests "an explosive failure" of some flavor. Missiles are the most likely, unless you're behind the missile or in sight of the launch site, you won't see it at night. Less than 8,000 feet is also under the "ceiling" for most air defense systems.

There is a new video that ABC News was showing on the evening news tonight, another, different angle on the same event. This time you can see a light(presumably a rocket motor) streaking up towards the aircraft just before it exploded.

Also it seems Iran has completed cleanup of the crash site, evidently they were in a hurry to get the evidence under tight security before anyone could "tamper" with the evidence, as they can't have that happening. /sarcasm

[TheDrake]

Alexa, turn anti aircraft missiles off.

I don't know how to help you with that.

[Grant]

This confirms that the Iranians shot down the plane:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-01-10/russia-says-no-grounds-to-blame-iran-for-ukrainian-plane-crash-tass

A Russian deputy foreign minister said on Friday that Moscow currently sees no grounds to blame Iran for the crash of a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran

[TheDeamon]

This confirms that the Iranians shot down the plane:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-01-10/russia-says-no-grounds-to-blame-iran-for-ukrainian-plane-crash-tass

A Russian deputy foreign minister said on Friday that Moscow currently sees no grounds to blame Iran for the crash of a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran

So the Russians are saying they(the Russians) shot it down instead?

[TheDrake]

This confirms that the Iranians shot down the plane:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-01-10/russia-says-no-grounds-to-blame-iran-for-ukrainian-plane-crash-tass

A Russian deputy foreign minister said on Friday that Moscow currently sees no grounds to blame Iran for the crash of a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran

So the Russians are saying they(the Russians) shot it down instead?

I think they are trying to preserve their arms sales by saying it wasn't their fault, because their hardware wasn't involved.

[Grant]

So the Russians are saying they(the Russians) shot it down instead?

Syrian rebels, financed by Chase Manhattan and Halliburton, shot it down in a black flag operation. 

[Grant]

Darn.

https://apnews.com/21f4a92a2dfbc38581719664bdf6f38e

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran announced Saturday that its military ‘unintentionally’ shot down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing all 176 aboard.

Sok. Russia will still deny.

[TheDeamon]

So much for "scientifically impossible."

Although I will admit, I'm amazed they fessed up to it so quickly.

[Grant]

Although I will admit, I'm amazed they fessed up to it so quickly.

They were caught on tape. They wisely understood that they could not cover it up and decided the best way to salvage what little support they still have with friendly western nations whom they are more and more dependent on was to fes up.

You know you’ve screwed up when the Canadians are pissed at you.

[Pete at Home]

So much for "scientifically impossible."

Although I will admit, I'm amazed they fessed up to it so quickly.

They said human error and will prosecute those who fracked up.

Which makes 223 total negligent deaths as part of their mourning/revenge fit over Soleimani, when you count the 56 trampling deaths from the funeral.  Not enemies Chinese emperors’ funerals had so much death.

Are we done yet?

And I lost stomach to vote for Pete Butagieg when he blamed Trump for the Plane crash. For shame.  Didn’t they teach Proximate cause at his fragging law school?

[TheDeamon]

Although I will admit, I'm amazed they fessed up to it so quickly.

They were caught on tape. They wisely understood that they could not cover it up and decided the best way to salvage what little support they still have with friendly western nations whom they are more and more dependent on was to fes up.

You know you’ve screwed up when the Canadians are pissed at you.

Pretty much my conclusion, although it went a bit further than "caught on tape" as well. They've probably done a once-over on the remains of the aircraft, and their evaluation was that there was no way they could allow "outsiders" to participate in the crash investigation without things pointing back to missile batteries they and the Russians have--not the Americans. So with that established, they had no foreign scapegoat to use which wouldn't result in their becoming even more isolated in the end. Which left fessing up to their Military shooting the plane down.

Which has to sting in more ways than one, it's only been a couple weeks since they last brought up the USS Vincennes shoot down for domestic consumption. Now they cannot bring that incident up without awkwardly reminding their own people of when their own air defenses shot down a civilian airliner too... 31 years later, while the people manning their air defense system were NOT under enemy fire(albeit they were expecting it-hence the shoot down).

Hard to accuse the Americans of being super-evil for doing something they've now done to themselves, with their having had 30 years to refine and improve their technology and training to make sure they didn't do something comparable themselves. Of course, they could admit their military systems are technically deficient in comparison to 30 year old US systems(which is how the US remains evil), but that's a significantly bigger hit to their ego.

[Kasandra]

TheDeamon, good post.

Hard to accuse the Americans of being super-evil for doing something they've now done to themselves, with their having had 30 years to refine and improve their technology and training to make sure they didn't do something comparable themselves. Of course, they could admit their military systems are technically deficient in comparison to 30 year old US systems(which is how the US remains evil), but that's a significantly bigger hit to their ego.

None of which changes their goals or lethal methods.  This will be forgotten in a week or two, since there was no aggressive purpose behind it and no "purpose" achieved.

[Grant]

Are we done yet?

Probably not.  We're simply back to where we were two weeks ago.  Iran and the United States in a clandestine shadow war over half the middle east. 

And I lost stomach to vote for Pete Butagieg when he blamed Trump for the Plane crash. For shame.  Didn’t they teach Proximate cause at his fragging law school?

I'm surprised more people havn't commented on this.  It's all the rage.  I feel the Ornerians are in some sort of post frenzy recovery period since the perceived threat of WWIII is now past.  Meanwhile the political internet machine is still producing poop at a remarkable rate.  Some people have been saying some remarkably stupid stuff and that simply excites the poop flingers to no end.  I'm truly hoping that generation z grows up to cultivate the sarcasm, apathy, and skepticism that generation x once possessed after watching boomers crap all over themselves during the 60s and 70s. 

I personally wish that they spent more time teaching causation in all forms of higher education, especially history courses, since 60% of history debates (my personally made up statistic) deal with "this was the cause of this".  I got more education in causation from a 1 hour incident investigation class than 40 hrs of college level history courses. 

[Kasandra]

I feel the Ornerians are in some sort of post frenzy recovery period since the perceived threat of WWIII is now past.  Meanwhile the political internet machine is still producing poop at a remarkable rate.

More like heat-seeking torpedoes looking for a new target.

[Pete at Home]

Here’s a fun tidbit: in Tehran, a protest over days of lies about the The semi-official Fars news agency

“1,000 people had chanted slogans against leaders and tore up pictures of Soleimani.“

[wmLambert]

My focus isn't on only how Iran finally owned up to shooting down the plane, but how the knee-jerk reaction of Democrats were trying to put it all on Trump. Don't they realize the end result of their sanctimony?

[Kasandra]

My focus isn't on only how Iran finally owned up to shooting down the plane, but how the knee-jerk reaction of Democrats were trying to put it all on Trump. Don't they realize the end result of their sanctimony?

I assume you're saying that Trump in no way had any bearing or influence on the incident, by either circumstance or actions he might have taken.  Am I right?

[TheDrake]

If trump had done nothing, the plane wouldn't have been shot down. That doesn't make him culpable in any ordinary way.

[Kasandra]

If trump had done nothing, the plane wouldn't have been shot down. That doesn't make him culpable in any ordinary way.

I'm not saying or implying culpable, but if someone breaks into your house and you shoot your family member by mistake, there is a proximate cause the home invader is responsible for.

[Pete at Home]

If trump had done nothing, the plane wouldn't have been shot down. That doesn't make him culpable in any ordinary way.

I'm not saying or implying culpable, but if someone breaks into your house and you shoot your family member by mistake, there is a proximate cause the home invader is responsible for.

That's an actual argument if you change the facts and pretend that Iraq is Iran's house, and that Iran was acting on credible evidence of an imminent attack by America at the moment that the US had invaded Iran without justifiable pretext.

Proximate cause equals blame and culpability.

[TheDrake]

If wasn't for those dammed wright brothers this never would have happened. 🤔

Might as well say trumps comments about invisible jets made this happen.

[Pete at Home]

If wasn't for those dammed wright brothers this never would have happened. 🤔

Might as well say trumps comments about invisible jets [literally] made this happen.

[Kasandra]

If wasn't for those dammed wright brothers this never would have happened. 🤔

Might as well say trumps comments about invisible jets made this happen.

One could, but one would be wrong.  i'm reminded that people don't kill people and guns don't kill people, and not even bullets kill people.  Bleeding to death kills people, so watch who you're pointing that finger at or I'll bite it off.

[Grant]

I'm not saying or implying culpable, but if someone breaks into your house and you shoot your family member by mistake, there is a proximate cause the home invader is responsible for.

If we expand this metaphor, what occurred here was that your son was well known for stealing cattle at the neighboring ranch.  Eventually he was caught in the neighboring ranch and shot.  You decided to retaliate by riding over to the neighboring ranch and setting fire to an empty barn.  Then, awaiting a reprisal, you shot your own wife the next night after she woke up late to make herself some tea. 

The truth of the matter is that you suck with your shotgun. Don't blame me for shooting your cattle rustling son or you for setting fire to my barn.  Take some responsibility.  The government of Iran actually did accept responsibility because they are apparently not as blinded by partisanship as certain other people. 

I have no problem saying that the hit on Suley was a part of the chain of events that led to the plane being shot down.  I can say that the election of Abraham Lincoln was the proximate cause of the civil war.  But the RESPONSIBILITY and CULPABILITY lies with Iran, the missile operators, and stupid southern politicians. 

[Pete at Home]

I can say that the election of Abraham Lincoln was the proximate cause of the civil war.

Silt that.  There was no way to avoid war once the south opened fire on Sumpter based on the confederate DOE, which called for southern annexation of areas now constituting Nevada California New Mexico and Oregon. It was an audacious gold grab and if Lincoln had caved the states would have warred over gold and water.

[Grant]

Silt that.  There was no way to avoid war once the south opened fire on Sumpter based on the confederate DOE, which called for southern annexation of areas now constituting Nevada California New Mexico and Oregon. It was an audacious gold grab and if Lincoln had caved the states would have warred over gold and water.

No one is arguing that, Pete.  I'm simply saying that if Abraham Lincoln had not been elected in 1860, the south would not have seceded (when they did) and subsequently fired on Ft Sumpter (when they did) and call for annexing the American southwest.  This is incontestable. This is not to say that war was then not unavoidable after the firing on Fort Sumpter, or that the war was not avoidable after Lincoln was elected. 

[TheDeamon]

Silt that.  There was no way to avoid war once the south opened fire on Sumpter based on the confederate DOE, which called for southern annexation of areas now constituting Nevada California New Mexico and Oregon. It was an audacious gold grab and if Lincoln had caved the states would have warred over gold and water.

As I recall, that was in response to Lincoln winning the Presidential election, so they decided to act before he could.

[Pete at Home]

Silt that.  There was no way to avoid war once the south opened fire on Sumpter based on the confederate DOE, which called for southern annexation of areas now constituting Nevada California New Mexico and Oregon. It was an audacious gold grab and if Lincoln had caved the states would have warred over gold and water.

As I recall, that was in response to Lincoln winning the Presidential election, so they decided to act before he could.

Lincoln "winning" the election isn't an act by Lincoln but an act by the American people.  It's a contradiction in terms to attribute proximate cause to a passive action.  Causes are caused by actors, not those acted upon. 

[Grant]

It's a contradiction in terms to attribute proximate cause to a passive action. 

Then I used the term "proximate cause" incorrectly.  I am conflating it with the general historical or physical definition of a "cause", i.e. "the lightning hitting my Smurfberry bush caused it to burst into flame". 

Nevertheless, being that the election is an action by particular American people in particular, and the American people or American government in general, it appears to me to not be a passive action, but a choice followed by a result.   ::shrug::

[TheDeamon]

Silt that.  There was no way to avoid war once the south opened fire on Sumpter based on the confederate DOE, which called for southern annexation of areas now constituting Nevada California New Mexico and Oregon. It was an audacious gold grab and if Lincoln had caved the states would have warred over gold and water.

As I recall, that was in response to Lincoln winning the Presidential election, so they decided to act before he could.

Lincoln "winning" the election isn't an act by Lincoln but an act by the American people.  It's a contradiction in terms to attribute proximate cause to a passive action.  Causes are caused by actors, not those acted upon.

The American People couldn't Elect Lincoln for office if he didn't run for that office. His choice to run for that office lead to his being elected, which resulted in South Carolina firing on Union Troops to start the Civil War before Lincoln could actually do anything.

Lincoln didn't give South Carolina orders to fire on the Fort, but he certainly set the dominoes in motion.

[Pete at Home]

That’s but-for logic. Direct cause.  You’ve offered absolutely no foreseeability or ethics- related arguments to demonstrate probable cause, which is what Grant argued.

The domino analogy is also false direct causation because Lincoln didn’t author the lies that the south told about him which arguably caused the secession, and could as well have been told about anyone.

Also,  others chose Lincoln for his position on not extending slavery into new states. They didn’t just pick that position because they voted for Lincoln. Our dominant history books for a century were written by a gang of losers.

[TheDrake]

But he did much more directly choose to resupply Sumter, as opposed to abandoning it. The entire policy of holding federal installations in the South after secession was tinder that was going to spark sooner or later.

[Pete at Home]

Hogwash. Blood was drawn in Kansas and Missouri before Lincoln was even elected. Blood was flowing already and the north already had its fragging battle hymn. Imagine if the US Declaration of Independence had claimed the whole continent including Canada? That’s what the rebel declaration did the equivalent of demanding. So we are now at formal war. Given that demand of grabbing all the way to Oregon and California, Lincoln has to hold onto every advantage he has. Give up forts and guns? Hell no, not without a fight. Them rebel goons are coming for the richest part of America which they don’t even possess yet. No way in hell the yankee banks are going to let that go, regardless of who was president. Stephen Douglass would have done the same damn thing in response to the Southern overreach in their DOI.  Their DOI was DOA.  Moral responsibility for the civil war lies with those who enacted the confederate d of I.

[TheDrake]

I'm not sure what document you're referring to, Pete.

As for giving up forts, I guess there's no right to self-determination? So if Quebec seceded, we'd think its okay for Canada to continue to man military bases under the Maple Leaf? Even if the Quebecois did try to claim Newfoundland.

[Pete at Home]

If the Quebequois use their declaration of independence (DoE) to claim Newfoundland, while keepign six quebecois on the Supreme Court of Canadam then yes, Canada is justified in holding its bases in Quebec pending the outcome.  But it's a different question because Canada concquered Quebec to begin with in the French and Indian war.  It's not like Quebec initially signed the deal of its own free will.

If you read the US declaration of Independence, the whole premise is that a land that wants to seceed needs more of an excuse than "I gotta be me."  The establishment must be violating some rite besides mere self-determination.

[TheDrake]

The UN expression of self determination doesn't depend on such an assertion. Such would apply to Scotland, for instance, if they wanted to exit the UK. They'd have a vote, it would be recognized by all the nations and then they'd have to figure it out.

[Pete at Home]

Would the scotts have to let their slaves vote too if slaves made up 85% of the adult population or do you concede that at some level it’s a bull rap analogy?