Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 54093 times)

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #100 on: March 02, 2020, 08:25:00 AM »
If you get put into a mandatory quarantine by the CDC do you have to pay for that?

Also, apparently you have to pay an arm and a leg to get tested too.

I doubt that non critical cases of COVID19 are going to be quarantined in hospitals.  It's more likely that they order quarantine at home.  This of course means that the quarantine is unenforced, but we're not going to have enough people or beds to watch every single body that catches the virus. 

I'm slightly surprised that the guy from China was quarantined, but it's likely because he was one of the first the CDC could get their hands on.  His bill doesn't seem very high considering that he has no insurance that covers heathcare in the United States.  The hospital has already said the bill was sent by mistake, but he still has to pay a bunch of money for the Ambulance ride.  Private ambulance companies are notorious for charging $200/mile.  I know, I worked for one.  I'm not in favor of private ambulance companies, because they charge like pirates, but the flip side is that they generally provide better care and have better response times because they're not dependent on tax income and government bureaucracy. 

The guy from Miami did have insurance, but his bill was high because a CT scan was ordered.  I don't know why they ordered a CT, but they're not cheap.  The cost of the test kits are covered by the CDC.  They've already appropriated some emergency funding. 

The cost of the testing with the CDC kits will probably be covered by the government.  If they order additional tests, or any additional treatment, none of it will be free.  That's American healthcare.  If you develop pneumonia and need to be put in the ICU, you're going to have a pretty big bill. 

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #101 on: March 02, 2020, 09:27:51 AM »
No worries about handling the sickest COVID-19 patients.  Trump's team has got it covered, especially in Alabama:

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In Anniston, local leaders were stunned to discover serious problems with the federal government’s plan for dealing with patients infected with the virus — starting with how the patients would get to Alabama, according to interviews with county and city officials, along with business leaders who dealt with the federal response.

“I was shocked,” Anniston Mayor Jack Draper said. “I was shocked by the lack of planning. I was shocked by the manner in which it was presented to us.”
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The HHS plan also called for housing coronavirus patients at the Center for Domestic Preparedness, a FEMA facility on the old Army base and one of several redevelopment projects at the sprawling outpost.
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The dorms normally house emergency responders from around the country.

But the center doesn’t have any special capabilities for handling infectious diseases, local officials said. The center is used for training. It has isolation hospital rooms — located in a former Army hospital building — but they are mostly just props, with fake equipment and light switches that exist only as paint on walls.

Waiting for Trump's diehard defenders here to come up with something, if they're not too busy defending Donald Jr's claim that Democrats want millions of Americans to die from the disease.  That should be easy, since Pence has already staked out the lines of the defense.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #102 on: March 02, 2020, 09:45:09 AM »
The handling of this has been a huge disappointment, to put it mildly. Trump trying to downplay it at first was also a big mistake. The Iranian government did that and now some of them are dead from the virus. The only saving grace perhaps for Trump is that all the Democrats do is criticize. They haven't suggested anything that would be helpful. Trump did one thing right and that was a travel ban but it didn't go nearly far enough. But if he had gone further he would have been met with lawsuits and injunctions. We need one right now on all non essential travel but no Democrats are calling for it as far as I know, and of course neither is Trump. They seem to think money thrown at everything is the answer. It may have been here for a month now so limiting travel is the only way to limit its spread until we can get enough test kits in play but nobody on either side of the aisle is up for the headache that will cause. We're dealing with a virus that looks like it has a very long incubation period so there are who knows how many people walking around as asymptomatic infection vectors and to top that off it has a possible biphasic element so people are cleared and then it remanifests from a hidden reservoir inside the body. This looks like it's out of control and our government isn't doing anything competent to stop it. The CDC is releasing infectious people from quarantine. The State Department brought infectious people home on a plane with non-infected people who were unaware of their situation and didn't protect State Department personnel from personally interacting with contagious people or protect any of the public or the families of the State Department personnel from their numerous personal interactions thereafter. Many of the CDC test kits are flawed and inaccurate. I mean it just goes on and on.

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #103 on: March 02, 2020, 09:48:47 AM »

Waiting for Trump's diehard defenders here to come up with something, if they're not too busy defending Donald Jr's claim that Democrats want millions of Americans to die from the disease.  That should be easy, since Pence has already staked out the lines of the defense.

I'm not a diehard defender by any means, but I think turning this into a political football, which some have already tried to do one way or the other, is reprehensible.  If there are problems they need to be fixed.  If you're not part of that process, leave it to people that are part of that process.  There will be setbacks.  There always are.  The people we think would be best for handling situations may not always be the people in charge, but it is what it is.  This is what we have to work with and we all need to work together because we're all in this together.  It's no different then at work or in the military.  Lead, follow, or get out of the way. 

As for the Alabama story, it doesn't seem to have any responses from the HHS officials involved in the process.  I'm hesitant to buy all in on the unpreparedness theme if there is no other side of the story presented, and the side that is being presented is related to a small Alabama town where people are getting their info from Facebook and concerned about secret helicopters in the night and the virus being a bioweapon.  It sounds like the community had made up their minds already, and their public servants were going to further that opinion so they could keep their jobs.  Just another possible example of lack of leadership from American politicians. 

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #104 on: March 02, 2020, 10:43:50 AM »
We need one right now on all non essential travel

I havn't seen anybody else really call for a government non-essential travel ban.  I'm not even sure it's enforceable.  Lots of corporations are already putting in place these travel bans or isolation procedures.  These precautions can buy us more time, but the virus isn't going back into the box.  You can only slow it down. 

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It may have been here for a month now so limiting travel is the only way to limit its spread until we can get enough test kits in play

Far more important then blanket travel bans are the general public self isolating when flu symptoms arise.  This is again unenforceable, but the key is that when people are sick they stay home. 

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We're dealing with a virus that looks like it has a very long incubation period so there are who knows how many people walking around as asymptomatic infection vectors and to top that off it has a possible biphasic element so people are cleared and then it remanifests from a hidden reservoir inside the body.

Having a long incubation period actually helps limit the spread of the virus.  The longer it stays unsymptomatic and unable to spread to others, the longer it will take to jump from person to person to person.  The longer we have, the more time we have to play with identification and treatment.  People walking around asymptomatic are not the problem because you can't spread a droplet respiratory virus unless you're sneezing or coughing. 

The worry that it may be bi-phasic seems to have stemmed from a single source.  There is too much we don't know about this single case to make any conclusions.  Regardless, if it was bi-phasic, there would be no way of knowing it before hand. 

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This looks like it's out of control and our government isn't doing anything competent to stop it.

The government isn't going to save us and it never could.  Washing your hands, not touching your face, covering your mouth when you cough and sneeze, and staying home when you're sick IS going to save some of us.  If you believe it's out of control and you're vulnerable, if you are older than 59, or have respiratory problems, then I suggest you self quarantine now.  I personally believe we have another 3-5 weeks before you would need to go there. 

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The CDC is releasing infectious people from quarantine.

Source?

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The State Department brought infectious people home on a plane with non-infected people who were unaware of their situation and didn't protect State Department personnel from personally interacting with contagious people or protect any of the public or the families of the State Department personnel from their numerous personal interactions thereafter.

Tough choices were made.  The infected were non-symptomatic, had been interacting with others already before State got ahold of them, and were put in a separate part of the plane.  Everyone that tested positive was quarantined upon arrive to the US. 

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Many of the CDC test kits are flawed and inaccurate.

The problem with the test kits was identified and a workaround made so that they could still be used. 

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I mean it just goes on and on.

Negative news is going to have a premium on positive news. 

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #105 on: March 02, 2020, 10:55:00 AM »
"... self isolating when flu symptoms arise."

The problem is this is spreading with no symptoms.

"Having a long incubation period actually helps limit the spread of the virus."

Not in this case. This looks like it's contagious during the long incubation period.

And since some people, maybe even most people, shed the virus and never show symptoms at all that's a huge problem.

That's what makes it very different from the normal flu. With the flu, you usually know you have it pretty soon and it's over within a few days and you aren't very contagious while asymptomatic. This is almost the opposite of the flu.

Sometimes less virulent versions of a virus are able to spread most easily so we could be benefiting from that in cases where we aren't getting it quite directly from the source but it has spread among a few people first unlike the ones in Iran and South Korea that may have had fewer hosts between masses of infected people, especially if it has been circulating in America for over a month already. That's just speculation though. Well just about all of this is speculation.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #106 on: March 02, 2020, 10:58:07 AM »
As for the mistaken release, this kind of thing also happened in Japan where either there was a false negative or there is a biphasic property to the virus or much less likely the lady picked it up again after release.


https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485425-coronavirus-patient-in-san-antonio-mistakenly

Officials in San Antonio said that a patient recently cleared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) later tested positive for the coronavirus COVID-19 that is taking hold in the U.S. The patient was released into the public following a false-negative test result.

According to the Austin Statesman, San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg said that the patient was quarantined after contracting COVID-19, where they tested negative for COVID-19 twice. They were discharged from the Texas Center for Infectious Diseases on Saturday before a third test recorded positive results.

The patient has since been readmitted.

This comes as the CDC is facing criticism regarding how they have supported local health care providers ahead of the coronavirus outbreak. Cases in the U.S. have jumped over the past few days, and state and local labs were sent test kits last week. These are updated test kits following the first release which contained a reagent that gave inconclusive results.


Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #107 on: March 02, 2020, 11:05:18 AM »
The problem is this is spreading with no symptoms.

Not in this case. This looks like it's contagious during the long incubation period.

I've read no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is transmissible when the patient is asymptomatic.  I'd like to know how a respiratory virus can be transmitted from patient to patient who is not coughing or sneezing.  The virus is a respiratory virus transmitted by water droplet.  This has been confirmed.  The virus cannot survive in the air alone like measels.  If it could, all of China would be sick. 

Please get your info from CDC or WHO or State Departments of Health.  This includes being skeptical on news stories from even main stream media such as WaPost, NYT, and major cable news networks.  Often, the medical or scientific expertise is not there to understand the data. 

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #108 on: March 02, 2020, 11:09:58 AM »
According to the Austin Statesman, San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg said that the patient was quarantined after contracting COVID-19, where they tested negative for COVID-19 twice. They were discharged from the Texas Center for Infectious Diseases on Saturday before a third test recorded positive results.

Again, we don't know if this is due to poor testing, or some other cause. 

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These are updated test kits following the first release which contained a reagent that gave inconclusive results.

The original CDC kits did have problems.  A workaround was found.  The problem was fixed.  Moving on. 

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #109 on: March 02, 2020, 11:20:56 AM »
The problem is this is spreading with no symptoms.

Not in this case. This looks like it's contagious during the long incubation period.

I've read no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is transmissible when the patient is asymptomatic.  I'd like to know how a respiratory virus can be transmitted from patient to patient who is not coughing or sneezing.  The virus is a respiratory virus transmitted by water droplet.  This has been confirmed.  The virus cannot survive in the air alone like measels.  If it could, all of China would be sick. 

Please get your info from CDC or WHO or State Departments of Health.  This includes being skeptical on news stories from even main stream media such as WaPost, NYT, and major cable news networks.  Often, the medical or scientific expertise is not there to understand the data.

It's not hard to find. google: covid can be transmitted when patient is asymptomatic

CDC: Asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been reported, but it is not yet known what role asymptomatic infection plays in transmission. Similarly, the role of pre-symptomatic transmission (infection detection during the incubation period prior to illness onset) is unknown. Existing literature regarding SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g. MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) suggest that the incubation period may range from 2–14 days.

WHO has this to say in one report:

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Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

I'd summarize the current state, based on those statements, to be "yes it happens but not as often". This would make sense since the amount of virus in asymptomatic patients would likely be lower.

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #110 on: March 02, 2020, 11:41:25 AM »
covid can be transmitted when patient is asymptomatic

CDC: Asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been reported, but it is not yet known what role asymptomatic infection plays in transmission. Similarly, the role of pre-symptomatic transmission (infection detection during the incubation period prior to illness onset) is unknown.

Let me translate this for you, since this page was for health care professionals, not general public. 

"Asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been reported"  means two things.   1.  It means that you can have the infection but not be symptomatic.  NOT that it was transmitted from an asymptomatic patient.  2.  "Reported" is different than "confirmed".  "Reported" can be pretty reliable, but it depends on the source.  In this particular case, the report was that a person was infected but asymptomatic, not that it was transmitted by an asymptomatic patient. 

" it is not yet known what role asymptomatic infection plays in transmission. Similarly, the role of pre-symptomatic transmission (infection detection during the incubation period prior to illness onset) is unknown."

"It is not yet known what role asymptomatic infection plays in transmission" gives a bunch of wiggle room.  But what it does not say is "transmission can take place from an asymptomatic source".  CDC seems to be hedging it's bets in that particular statement while everything else they say points to an airborne droplet respiratory virus.  You can't transmit those without coughing or sneezing.

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Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

Reported.  Not confirmed.  Unclear. 

Scientifically you're going to have to explain how a droplet respiratory virus is transmitted without a cough or sneeze.  Otherwise, you're going off patient reports, which are highly unreliable. 

"Have you been coughing or sneezing"? 
"Oh no"

"Fever?"
"Oh no"

"But you're sick now and came immediately when you got sick?"
"Oh yes"

"And your wife is sick too, and everyone in your workplace, but you havn't been coughing or sneezing?"
"Oh no, never" 

::Checks asymptomatic transmission box::


I mean, i've been taking histories from patients for 15 years and this is typical in 50% of stories.  This is not even when you're dealing with a repressive government with strict rules in place. 


TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #111 on: March 02, 2020, 11:53:49 AM »
Fair enough. I glossed over some of the detail.

I would ask you, lets say you must have a cough or sneeze. People can cough or sneeze for a variety of reasons. Couldn't a person carrying the virus sneeze because they have allergies and transmit the virus?

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #112 on: March 02, 2020, 11:54:54 AM »
Here we go

https://www.jwatch.org/na50998/2020/02/24/potential-transmission-sars-cov-2-asymptomatic-carrier
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028

From NEJM:

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This interesting cluster is highly suggestive of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from an asymptomatic carrier. However, there are a few caveats. We are not certain if the index case was positive for SARS-CoV-2 when she met with the other five persons; when the others were symptomatic, her RT-PCR was negative and her positive RT-PCR was quite late for the expected incubation period of around 5 to 14 days, although some have suggested the incubation period may be longer. Further, all six individuals visited a relative at a hospital. Although the authors state that no COVID-19 was previously reported at that hospital, nosocomial infection cannot be ruled out.

From the report itself

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The mechanism by which asymptomatic carriers could acquire and transmit the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 requires further study.


Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #113 on: March 02, 2020, 11:58:00 AM »
Fair enough. I glossed over some of the detail.

I would ask you, lets say you must have a cough or sneeze. People can cough or sneeze for a variety of reasons. Couldn't a person carrying the virus sneeze because they have allergies and transmit the virus?

I imagine that could be possible.  A great deal would depend on how quick the virus is able to replicate.  I admit I'm not a virologist.  I imagine you could have the virus and cough because you're trying to get someone's attention and transmit that way as well.  I suppose this could account for asymptomatic transmission cases being rare.  You got me there. 

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #114 on: March 02, 2020, 12:09:58 PM »
It could also be transmitted by touch if the virus can survive for days on hard surfaces. Someone wipes their nose and then touches handrails, doorknobs, luggage bins, maybe even cash and credit cards, passports, and paperwork. You aren't coughing or sneezing, no fever or aches or pains, and you feel fine but you are a walking talking Typhoid Mary.

And though it may end up being the case it is not safe to assume that they can't be contagious just by breathing in close proximity or in places that recirculate the air and aren't very well ventilated like planes, taxis, and mass transit.

Too many assumptions have been made already that turned out not to be accurate, and the assumptions were made going in the opposite direction of better safe than sorry.

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #115 on: March 02, 2020, 12:21:31 PM »
It could also be transmitted by touch if the virus can survive for days on hard surfaces. Someone wipes their nose and then touches handrails, doorknobs, luggage bins, maybe even cash and credit cards, passports, and paperwork. You aren't coughing or sneezing, no fever or aches or pains, and you feel fine but you are a walking talking Typhoid Mary.

Meh.  Depends on the humidity and temperature.  Having a runny nose, rhinorhea, is being symptomatic. 

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And though it may end up being the case it is not safe to assume that they can't be contagious just by breathing in close proximity or in places that recirculate the air and aren't very well ventilated like planes, taxis, and mass transit.

No, this is the exact definition of regular airborne transmission.  It doesn't work that way.  Relax. 

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Too many assumptions have been made already that turned out not to be accurate, and the assumptions were made going in the opposite direction of better safe than sorry.

I think there is some cognitive distortion going on here. 

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #116 on: March 02, 2020, 12:37:25 PM »
I’m really not getting how people should be doing anything different than proper hygiene and care for the flu. It looks to me like this will spread widely and it has probably been in the US population for a while but was undetected because for most people it presents in relatively minor ways. It seems to have significantly higher lethality for octogenarians, which sucks.

Does anyone think that making sure it’s headline news all day everyday is the right thing to do? Should Trump be holding press conferences telling people the end is nigh?

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #117 on: March 02, 2020, 12:49:56 PM »
I’m really not getting how people should be doing anything different than proper hygiene and care for the flu. It looks to me like this will spread widely and it has probably been in the US population for a while but was undetected because for most people it presents in relatively minor ways. It seems to have significantly higher lethality for octogenarians, which sucks.

Meh.  I think that proper prevention measures like washing hands and covering your mouth and staying home when you're sick are the most important things we can all do.  But I recognize that since this could be 10-20 times as dangerous as the flu, that at some point some extra measures may be taken like shutting down schools, public transport, public events, etc, may be called for.  I think what is happening in Italy is a good example of what may happen in the US.  I agree a bunch of us are going to get it.  I agree it's already here but how well control measures have been will be something that we won't know for another 5-7 days. 

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Does anyone think that making sure it’s headline news all day everyday is the right thing to do? Should Trump be holding press conferences telling people the end is nigh?

Meh.  The news industry isn't about what is best for people to know or what keeps them best informed.  It would be nice if it was.  I think a certain amount of exposure is necessary so people understand the risks, take necessary precautions, make proper planning, and so that they are not surprised and shocked and panicked when Boomers start dying in greater numbers.   

Should L'Orange be holding press conferences?  I dunno.  That depends on your level of faith in the guy.  I understand his way of communication, particularly when he is bashing Democrats, is comforting and inspiring to some.  If he makes some people happy and comforts them, then by all means. 

rightleft22

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #118 on: March 02, 2020, 01:02:39 PM »
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Meh.  The news industry isn't about what is best for people to know or what keeps them best informed.  It would be nice if it was.  I think a certain amount of exposure is necessary so people understand the risks, take necessary precautions, make proper planning, and so that they are not surprised and shocked and panicked when Boomers start dying in greater numbers.   

Should L'Orange be holding press conferences?  I dunno.  That depends on your level of faith in the guy.  I understand his way of communication, particularly when he is bashing Democrats, is comforting and inspiring to some.  If he makes some people happy and comforts them, then by all means.

Its the nature of the 24/7 new/entertainment media to repeat. Anyone who is going to watch more then a hour of news a day is asking to be taken for a ride. Discernment on the viewer is required and most people aren't equipped.

As For L'Orange comforting and springing some (his base) by bashing the democrats and doing what he is accusing them of doing... he should keep his mouth shut. A leader of integrity might find away to speak to everyone but that not who that man is.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #119 on: March 02, 2020, 01:12:05 PM »
It's possible that regular measures will be highly effective but we can remember what happened with Ebola when the CDC and others didn't understand how it was spread and kept insisting that the healthcare workers in Africa must not be using their gear properly because they kept getting infected and it was only after it came to America that we seemed to learn we underestimated how transmissible it was because our own healthcare workers did use their gear exactly as required but the gear itself was insufficient to prevent infection because it was to a limited extent airborne. I see the same types of dangerous assumptions being made here as far as thinking we understand how it is transmitted and having a handle on it when it's still too early for that.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #120 on: March 02, 2020, 01:16:14 PM »
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The only saving grace perhaps for Trump is that all the Democrats do is criticize. They haven't suggested anything that would be helpful.

That's a little misleading since Trump dismantled the pandemic infrastructure and canceled other programs that Obama had put in place.  The fact that there is much less to work with is no fault of the Democrats, who have called for putting professionals in charge of the team instead of the depressingly willfully blind Pence.

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As for the Alabama story, it doesn't seem to have any responses from the HHS officials involved in the process.  I'm hesitant to buy all in on the unpreparedness theme if there is no other side of the story presented, and the side that is being presented is related to a small Alabama town where people are getting their info from Facebook and concerned about secret helicopters in the night and the virus being a bioweapon.  It sounds like the community had made up their minds already, and their public servants were going to further that opinion so they could keep their jobs.  Just another possible example of lack of leadership from American politicians.

You're behind the curve on this one.  HHS has canceled plans to move patients to this facility due to the objections raised by the local leaders as well as Senator Shelby, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey and Alabama Rep. Bradley Byrne:

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"I thanked him for his support of AL! We always want to help our fellow Americans, but this wasn't fully vetted," Ivey tweeted.
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"I’m fighting to bring this to a full stop. Leave these people in the place they came to, don’t spread them around the US, and keep them OUT of Alabama," Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL) wrote on Twitter.

Scott F:
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My hot water tank can serve as fresh water for a good two weeks. That’s my prep so far.

I fail to understand why people think they need to stock up on water.  Two things you should be able to rely on in your homes are power and water.

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #121 on: March 03, 2020, 11:31:22 AM »
Interesting twitter thread this morning. Pretty pathetic state of affairs re: testing in the Seattle area.


"I live in Seattle, I have all symptoms of COVID-19 and have a history of chronic bronchitis.

Since I work in a physical therapy clinic with many 65+ patients and those with chronic illnesses, I decided to be responsible and go to get tested. This is how that went."


https://twitter.com/into_the_brush/status/1234685467682979840

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #122 on: March 03, 2020, 11:48:14 AM »
Interesting twitter thread this morning. Pretty pathetic state of affairs re: testing in the Seattle area.

I thought I told you guys about getting info from social media and Twitter.  Particularly from a non-verified account called "Sketchy lady". 

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #123 on: March 03, 2020, 11:57:06 AM »
If they could test I seriously wonder how many people have already had it and recovered. There is a test that tells if you've had it already. That would be very useful information. Our government is really dropping the ball on this. It's funny because I went through something over the last five weeks that fits the profile of C19, like this lady here, and I've been through flues before, many times, and I know how it goes but this was something unlike any other. Of course it could just be getting older and a different strain and it may well have been just the regular version or something else entirely but it would be nice to know. I wonder if you found out you already had it would that mean you've gotten some immunity to what's going around now until it mutates significantly. That would be a load off. Well at least I found out from this frustrated lady that there was nothing I could do about it anyway even if I wanted to.

Oh and yes I got the flu shot. I figure it's good for your immune system even if it doesn't happen to protect you that season. With all the sanitization everywhere our immune systems may not be getting the workout they should. I'm not sure if it's correct or not but it seems like the flu shot gives your immune system exposure to some things that help to strengthen it generally and not just specifically compared to living in a practically germ free bubble the way many of us do nowadays. For those who think everyone is just freaking out about what's in the news, perhaps, but then there is this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

"You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain."

The longer we wait on testing the less likely we are to get a good picture of not only what is happening now but what already happened, which may well be nothing but that would be good to know too.


« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 12:02:38 PM by cherrypoptart »

NobleHunter

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #124 on: March 03, 2020, 12:00:48 PM »
The normal flu (Influenza A/B) is supposedly extra nasty this year.

Also worth noting that a lot of cold/flu symptoms are caused by the reaction of the immune system rather than the virus itself. A "strong" immune system could make things worse.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #125 on: March 03, 2020, 12:07:54 PM »
As I understand it, there have been very few cases of COVID-19 in children and no deaths.  From my superficial observations, it appears to be more severe as the patients are older.  The youngest person that has died that I've heard of was 29.  I realize information is a bit anecdotal and sparse, so I'd appreciate it if anyone can update or contradict what I wrote.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #126 on: March 03, 2020, 12:14:05 PM »
That's the thing though for now. Nobody is testing for it and often there are no symptoms. We could have only the hundred or so cases we know about in America or we could have thousands. The people who have died of the flu could have died of this instead and how would we know if they weren't tested? We really have no idea. This reminds me of Six Sigma a bit. We are at first stage. Define. We haven't even seriously begun the second stage which is to Measure. Without that accomplished there is no possible way to Analyze, Improve and Control.

"COVID-19 is already reported to have killed more than twice that number. With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways. Last week, 14 Americans tested positive on a cruise ship in Japan despite feeling fine—the new virus may be most dangerous because, it seems, it may sometimes cause no symptoms at all."

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #127 on: March 04, 2020, 09:00:57 AM »
It's good to know Trump is in clear control of the coronavirus situation.  If you remember just a week ago Trump said only 15 people had contracted the disease and all were getting better and would be all better within a few days.  Since then 9 people have died from the virus.  By the time you read this message, it's likely the death toll will have gone up again.

Perhaps one of his worshippers here can explain to me the strategy behind the Stable Genius plan for combatting the virus.   

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #128 on: March 04, 2020, 09:38:50 AM »
Trump needs to get out of the way and leave this to the professionals. And Mike Pence is not one of them. The CDC (Corona Distribution Company) has bungled it up to now too. Hopefully Trump will declare a state of emergency and start travel restrictions. The testing kits are ramping up on production now and should be out very soon. Then we do massive amounts of testing and see where we stand without letting people spread it all over the place in the meantime. I could see an airline bailout or compensation.  Putting people up there in flying incubators to continue transporting the virus around the country and around the world is the stupidest idea in the long stupid history of stupid ideas.  The masks need to catch on too. The Surgeon General's comment on them was ridiculous. I can see saying the medicos should take priority for now until there are enough for everyone but saying they are essentially useless for ordinary people is irresponsible. They will definitely help people who have the virus and don't know it from spreading it. Even with the N95s. And if they can ramp up production of improved masks that's even better. Trump has failed but the Democrats aren't any better. They seem more concerned with the appearance of racism than they are with stopping the spread of the virus which right now requires travel restrictions and restrictions on large gatherings which should of course be cancelled. The voluntary quarantine needs a hard look at too when you have people breaking it and going into large gatherings potentially spreading it and definitely causing more work for the CDC who then has to start keeping track of new clusters of people.

Of course a lot of that won't happen. Hopefully we're getting a less deadly strain.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #129 on: March 04, 2020, 09:49:24 AM »
Quote
Adams said that as a health-care worker, he has to get “fit tested” when wearing protective masks, and those who do not wear the masks properly tend to fidget with them or touch their faces — which “actually can increase the spread of coronavirus.”

Are you saying this is factually incorrect?

Quote
The only people who should be wearing masks are healthy people who are taking care of someone who is sick or sick people who are coughing or sneezing when they are in public, according to the World Health Organization.

Or this?

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #130 on: March 04, 2020, 10:03:44 AM »
I'm saying that if there is a church filled with thousands of people and some of them have this virus the church with everyone wearing a mask will have less people walk out of it infected at the end of the sermon than the church where nobody is wearing a mask. I think we just saw that in South Korea. Same thing with a crowded bus, or plane, or concert, or the supermarket, or in long lines for voting. Sure for some small segment of the population it might be counter-productive. Like seat belts.

Anything that keeps an infected person, who again doesn't know they are infected, from sneezing all over the place is an improvement. Even if the masks have micron levels too large to stop the virus itself if it stops the water droplets that the virus travels on from going as far that is a huge improvement. And yes sneezing into your elbow and sleeve is good too. Not everyone has caught onto that though, or they forget, or they aren't fast enough. They sneeze everywhere or into their hand and touch everything. Maybe Adrian Monk had the right idea on that, keep some sanitizing wipes in your pocket.

If the Surgeon General is trying to say that if the infected people in the South Korean church had been wearing masks it wouldn't have mattered and hundreds of others still would have gotten infected then that flies in the face of common sense. One sneeze from an infected person and it's game over. Hasn't everyone already seen the movie theater scene in Outbreak? Sure there is still touching and yes that's an issue too but the masks are going to help.

NobleHunter

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #131 on: March 04, 2020, 10:16:40 AM »
cherry, the first thing Drake quoted said masks can increase transmission. So more people walk out of the church or bus infected than if the person hadn't been wearing the mask.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #132 on: March 04, 2020, 10:21:52 AM »
The point the CDC seems to miss is that you can spread it even if you aren't showing symptoms.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/health-experts-telling-healthy-people-140007777.html

"The CDC recommends surgical masks only for people who already show symptoms of coronavirus and must go outside..."

So if you have it you should wear a mask. Nobody knows who has it. Then who should wear a mask?

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #133 on: March 04, 2020, 10:21:58 AM »
And then when people go to a potluck after their church service, are they all going to scrub their hands after handling their masks? That's the SG point about how people tend to fidget with them. The mask concentrates whatever they might have and helps transfer it to their hands. Are they going to dispose of them and replace them with fresh ones? If not, where are they putting them? In their purse? Pocket?

And maybe all that is fine and good if you have an unlimited supply. But when someone actually has flu-like symptoms, or someone in their family does, and all the masks have been sold to paranoid random healthy people, you have a problem.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #134 on: March 04, 2020, 10:23:48 AM »
Okay well let's ask it this way then. If there is an unlimited supply then does that change things?

The Surgeon General confuses everything when he says that they should be saved for the medicos.

If the medicos have plenty then what?

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #135 on: March 04, 2020, 10:26:02 AM »
Hierarchy of value

medics > people with confirmed with covid-19 > people with flu-like symptoms > people trained on mask use

And never untrained people, because that just leads to worse outcomes.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #136 on: March 04, 2020, 10:36:06 AM »
"They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!"

So the same mask can protect healthcare providers but it doesn't protect the public.

If it's because people don't know how to use them then it seems like it would make more sense to provide instructions just like you see in every restaurant a placard with Heimlich maneuver instructions. Surely the operation of a mask is not beyond the ability of people to learn if the same people are expected to be able to learn how to do the Heimlich maneuver.

As for me, I was trained as a reactor technician in the Navy. We learn how to assume our hazmat suits are contaminated with radiation including alpha radiation which you do not want to touch, and we are trained how to take them off while only touching the insides of the suits, the insides of the gloves, the insides of the mask, and to roll them up. It seems like there is a similar principle in play here and it would not be beyond my abilities to eventually master. 

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #137 on: March 04, 2020, 10:44:01 AM »
Let's recall we couldn't even train the general public to use the metric system, but it wasn't beyond you.

How many people do you think could correctly execute the heimlich based on the poster? Thing is, hanging the poster doesn't come with negative outcomes much, unless somebody bruises a rib - or someone who doesn't know what they are doing gets in the way of someone who does.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #138 on: March 04, 2020, 10:48:41 AM »
Meanwhile, you know what's more effective than wearing a mask to a giant church service? Not going to a giant church service.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #139 on: March 04, 2020, 10:59:31 AM »
But you do have to go to the grocery store. So you go with your mask. You have a bunch of Clorox wipes at home. You get home, wash your hands, use a Clorox wipe to take off your mask, a washable type, throw it in the washer with your clothes and take a shower and you're done and done. And you don't touch your face while you're out. You wipe off stuff you touch while you're out with the little baggie of Clorox wipes you have in your pocket, Monk style. It doesn't seem like it's rocket science. The part that really doesn't make sense is when the Surgeon General says the exact same mask that won't protect you will protect medical personnel. Okay, yeah, if you are taking the mask and then turning it inside out to use as a blindfold later when you go to bed, sure, but if you have any common sense it's not that hard to figure out. I'd also be curious what the CDC equivalents in other countries are telling their own citizens and if it's the same advice ours is giving us.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #140 on: March 04, 2020, 11:31:56 AM »
If people could be trained that easily, their dogs wouldn't kill anybody, and nobody would be accidentally shot.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #141 on: March 04, 2020, 11:54:11 AM »
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

   - Before putting on a mask, clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
   -  Cover mouth and nose with mask and make sure there are no gaps between your face and the mask.
   -  Avoid touching the mask while using it; if you do, clean your hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
   -  Replace the mask with a new one as soon as it is damp and do not re-use single-use masks.
   - To remove the mask: remove it from behind (do not touch the front of mask); discard immediately in a closed bin; clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

They even have a nice short and sweet video to go with it.

That information from our Surgeon General would have been much more helpful.

As for all of the stuff about how the mask could be more dangerous, well that's only if it has coronavirus or flu or something dangerous on it. If you are just a regular person going about your day and you wouldn't have been exposed anyway then how is it going to hurt you? If that were the case then women wearing burkas and veils would have noticed it by now.

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #142 on: March 04, 2020, 11:55:14 AM »
You're all pretty. 

First, I want to point out the contradiction of stating that Trump is screwing up and should let the experts handle things, then in the very next sentence, say that Trump needs to shut down travel because the experts at the CDC have screwed things up. 

Second, quit quoting stories about masks when we're generally talking about N95s. 

Third, N95 masks prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.  That's why health care professionals use them.  Yes, if you're an idiot wearing a Santa Beard or if you don't pinch the little metal nose piece, it won't help as much.  Yes, if you don't use other precautions like hand washing it won't help at all.  Yes, if you're an idiot it won't help you.  But the good news is, if you're not an idiot, it will help.  The good news is, not wearing PPE properly only hurts idiots, not people who wear the PPE correctly.  If there are 100 people in the room, and 99 are wearing the N95 incorrectly, and don't use handwashing, they can all get the virus if exposed.  But that is no reason for the one person who does know how to use the equipment to not use it. 

I'm well aware of how stupid people are.  There are examples all around me.  I could have read something stupid this morning, though certainly not here.  But the idea that people should not buy child seats because so many are too stupid to strap them up, or that people should not buy guns because there is always some guy who wants to check if it is loaded by looking down the barrel and pulling the trigger, or you shouldn't buy a deep fryer because hundreds of people burn their houses down every year deep frying turkeys, is ridiculous.  We have to continue to move forward and be as safe as we can be regardless of idiots. 

Fourth, if you're not 50-60 years old or older, or if you don't have a respiratory problem, you probably don't need an N95 mask.  Guess what?  We're eventually all going to get this virus unless they make a vaccine.  It cannot be contained.  It can only be slowed.  So chill out and embrace the suck.  It's not the end of the world.  Yes, as many as 400,000 Americans could be killed by this thing this year.  That's no small number.  Yes, precautions need to be made. 

If you're sick, stay home. 
Wash your hands with alcohol based hand sanitizer.
Avoid touching your face.
Stay away from public transportation and large public gatherings.
Practice social distancing.
Watch out for your elderly friends and relatives.  Have an isolation plan.  Supplies.  Extra PPE.  Shutting down travel in the US is not going to happen so bunker down the most vulnerable. 

None of this is going to stop or contain the virus.  It will simply slow it down and hopefully keep our most vulnerable protected. 

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #143 on: March 04, 2020, 12:07:00 PM »
If you're not an idiot, you can probably decide for yourself no matter what the Surgeon General says. Maybe your sister is a nurse, or you've done your homework, or you knew someone who had a compromised immune system.

Clearly the public message is to stop morons from buying up supplies and using them in a worthless way.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #144 on: March 04, 2020, 12:13:17 PM »
Meanwhile....

Quote
The government of France is taking control of the stocks and production of surgical masks in the country in response to the coronavirus outbreak, Health Minister Olivier Véran announced today.

“Other than health professionals, contaminated people and vulnerable people, masks are not useful,” he said in the announcement.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #145 on: March 04, 2020, 01:19:42 PM »
There is that concept again, "other than contaminated people". And that's the catch.

So if you know you don't have it then you don't need a mask. Who knows for sure they don't have it? Nobody. That's the whole point of asymptomatic super spreaders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/what-are-super-spreaders-and-how-are-they-transmitting-coronavirus

Like Typhoid Mary.

And also just asymptomatic regular spreaders.


yossarian22c

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #146 on: March 04, 2020, 01:29:44 PM »
And also just asymptomatic regular spreaders.

I agree, a real danger with how mild it seems to be in younger people. If this gets into schools its going everywhere. If kids represent with "normal cold" symptoms, runny nose, no fever, odds are parents are sending them onto school where everyone gets infected.

Right now the only measures we can take are to slow the spread while we try to get a working vaccine. Until there is a vaccine for this its going to simmer and spread, or potentially have a full break out and we either try to all self isolate/quarantine (sick or healthy) or accept it as a new risk that we just deal with like the flu or car accidents. If we're lucky warm temperatures actually slow the spread (like the flu). Anyone know yet if that's been confirmed that the virus breaks down faster in warm temperatures? 

Slowing the spread saves lives by simply not overwhelming the health care system. But it seems highly contagious and has a long incubation period which makes getting everyone potentially exposed isolated in time to avoid more spreading is virtually impossible.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #147 on: March 04, 2020, 01:42:35 PM »
There is that concept again, "other than contaminated people". And that's the catch.

So if you know you don't have it then you don't need a mask. Who knows for sure they don't have it? Nobody. That's the whole point of asymptomatic super spreaders.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/what-are-super-spreaders-and-how-are-they-transmitting-coronavirus

Like Typhoid Mary.

And also just asymptomatic regular spreaders.

So we take the available masks away from people with COPD or flu symptoms, and give them to people who feel fine because they might secretly have the covid?

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #148 on: March 04, 2020, 02:15:52 PM »
Well I'm operating on the assumption that there will be plenty of masks for everyone very shortly.

If the Surgeon General and the other experts want to say that when masks are in short supply then the medical personnel obviously need to have priority then that's fine; they should say that.

But to say that they won't help regular folks is absurd when they also say people should wear them if they have the virus and you can have the virus without knowing it or showing symptoms.

I just learned the term for it: cryptic transmission.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/genetic-analysis-suggests-coronavirus-infections-022607597.html

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #149 on: March 04, 2020, 02:33:38 PM »
Quoted for truth!

You're all pretty. 

First, I want to point out the contradiction of stating that Trump is screwing up and should let the experts handle things, then in the very next sentence, say that Trump needs to shut down travel because the experts at the CDC have screwed things up. 

Second, quit quoting stories about masks when we're generally talking about N95s. 

Third, N95 masks prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.  That's why health care professionals use them.  Yes, if you're an idiot wearing a Santa Beard or if you don't pinch the little metal nose piece, it won't help as much.  Yes, if you don't use other precautions like hand washing it won't help at all.  Yes, if you're an idiot it won't help you.  But the good news is, if you're not an idiot, it will help.  The good news is, not wearing PPE properly only hurts idiots, not people who wear the PPE correctly.  If there are 100 people in the room, and 99 are wearing the N95 incorrectly, and don't use handwashing, they can all get the virus if exposed.  But that is no reason for the one person who does know how to use the equipment to not use it. 

I'm well aware of how stupid people are.  There are examples all around me.  I could have read something stupid this morning, though certainly not here.  But the idea that people should not buy child seats because so many are too stupid to strap them up, or that people should not buy guns because there is always some guy who wants to check if it is loaded by looking down the barrel and pulling the trigger, or you shouldn't buy a deep fryer because hundreds of people burn their houses down every year deep frying turkeys, is ridiculous.  We have to continue to move forward and be as safe as we can be regardless of idiots. 

Fourth, if you're not 50-60 years old or older, or if you don't have a respiratory problem, you probably don't need an N95 mask.  Guess what?  We're eventually all going to get this virus unless they make a vaccine.  It cannot be contained.  It can only be slowed.  So chill out and embrace the suck.  It's not the end of the world.  Yes, as many as 400,000 Americans could be killed by this thing this year.  That's no small number.  Yes, precautions need to be made. 

If you're sick, stay home. 
Wash your hands with alcohol based hand sanitizer.
Avoid touching your face.
Stay away from public transportation and large public gatherings.
Practice social distancing.
Watch out for your elderly friends and relatives.  Have an isolation plan.  Supplies.  Extra PPE.  Shutting down travel in the US is not going to happen so bunker down the most vulnerable. 

None of this is going to stop or contain the virus.  It will simply slow it down and hopefully keep our most vulnerable protected.