That's plausible but I have to wonder if an additional reason might be some of the long term effects of Covid on the body that happen not just to the long haulers but to the people who assume they have recovered completely unscathed including the vaccinated but are actually suffering from the virus in various ways that while medically measurable are not so noticeably felt.
Are you going to notice a long term 1-2% cognitive decline because of a symptomless covid experience because of minute amounts or effects of "residual covid", or a similar decline in heart function? Or reproductive ability for men?
https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2022/04/even-mild-covid-19-can-cause-your-brain-to-shrink"Even mild COVID-19 can cause your brain to shrink
Recent brain imaging shows the disease can cause physical changes equivalent to a decade of ageing and trigger problems with attention and memory. Exactly why is still a mystery."
https://www.hindustantimes.com/lifestyle/health/even-mild-covid-19-may-impair-fertility-in-men-iit-b-study-101649672198576.htmlEven mild or moderate COVID-19 illness could change the level of proteins related to male reproductive function that may impair fertility, according to a small study led by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0#:~:text=Massive%20study%20shows%20a%20long,SARS%2DCoV%2D2%20infection.&text=Even%20a%20mild%20case%20of,a%20new%20study1%20shows.
"Heart-disease risk soars after COVID — even with a mild case
Massive study shows a long-term, substantial rise in risk of cardiovascular disease, including heart attack and stroke, after a SARS-CoV-2 infection."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95565-8"More than 50 long-term effects of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis"
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Could getting Covid while vaccinated for many people give them the same "mild covid experience" that is looking more and more like it's not so mild after all, or only mild by comparison to much worse alternatives? But it's not mild in the typical sense of pretty much every other cold and flu which for just about everyone who recovers only makes their body permanently stronger. This one isn't acting like that at all. Certainly it's better to be vaccinated, but that may not be the bulletproof armor people are assuming or make it as safe to get all the exposure you want, as they seem to expect, especially with new variants.
QFT: "This virus has more incredibly novel behavior than has ever been seen before in viruses."
I feel kind of like Sarah Connor here.
"Everybody not wearing an N-95 mask is going to have a really bad day. You think you're safe and healthy? You're already infected. Everybody. Him. You. You're infected already! This whole place, everything you see is contaminated! You're the one living in a fracking dream because I know it happens. It happens!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5yInB-X0EAThere's a good argument to be made that with nearly a million deaths it's already happened. I'm confident the mask mandates helped to reduce the numbers and would continue to do so. One thing you have to wonder is how many more deaths we'd have right now if we never had mando-masking on public transportation. With the vaccines available thankfully we'll hopefully not have to find out but this is going to really put the vaccines to the test. If the variants keep going the way they're going and becoming more vaccine evasive and resistant, we're putting on all our eggs in the law of declining virulence basket, which isn't nearly enough of a lock to bet the farm.
https://theconversation.com/will-coronavirus-really-evolve-to-become-less-deadly-153817"...There are plenty of ancient diseases, such as tuberculosis and gonorrhoea, that are probably just as virulent today as they ever were...
... Plausible but not inevitable
Of course, these counter-examples do not in themselves present evidence that the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 will not decline. Declining virulence is certainly plausible as one of many potential outcomes under the trade-off model.
Conversely, mutations might simultaneously heighten both virulence and transmissibility by increasing viral replication rate..."