Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 616924 times)

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4550 on: September 19, 2022, 12:09:32 PM »
I wonder if technically and factually the President is correct about the pandemic being over. I just looked something up out of curiosity. The WHO declared Covid a pandemic on March 11, 2020. U.S. Covid deaths on that day were 6 with a seven day average of 4. A few days ago on September 16, 2022 the U.S. Covid deaths were 743 with a seven day average of 518. I'm not seeing how the math adds up to the Covid pandemic being over.

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+us+11+March+2020&rlz=1C1ONGR_en__1000__1000&oq=covid+deaths+us+11+March+2020&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l3.8192j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4551 on: September 19, 2022, 12:23:56 PM »
I wonder if technically and factually the President is correct about the pandemic being over. I just looked something up out of curiosity. The WHO declared Covid a pandemic on March 11, 2020. U.S. Covid deaths on that day were 6 with a seven day average of 4. A few days ago on September 16, 2022 the U.S. Covid deaths were 743 with a seven day average of 518. I'm not seeing how the math adds up to the Covid pandemic being over.

RNGezus, Cherry. 

First off, when WHO declares a pandemic is has nothing to do with the number of deaths or the average number over a 7 day trend in the United States itself. 

It has to do with a fatality rate.  Which is your total fatalities divided by your total morbidity. 

It's about RISK, which is severity TIMES probability. 

The RISK is much lower now because the severity has dropped.  Your fatality rate is lower.  Probably MUCH lower since I suspect massive underreporting BECAUSE the fatality rate is lower.

Now, if you want to make an argument that the United States could be doing MUCH better when it comes to dropping it's fatality rate or it's transmission rate NOW, or in the past two years, I'd probably agree with you.  But between the wackos and the Libertarians there wasn't much room to maneuver in the United States.  The noise to signal ratio was extremely high, and the signal was never that strong to begin with. 

And just to clarify, in case you havn't figured it out yet, the total fatalities and total morbidities that the WHO is tracking has to do with the fatalities and morbidity in THE ENTIRE WORLD.  Which includes CHYNA.  That's why they're the WORLD Health Oganization, not the "Cherry's Backyard Health Organization". 

$$^&!!!
« Last Edit: September 19, 2022, 12:26:02 PM by Grant »

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4552 on: September 19, 2022, 12:38:13 PM »
Because it transitioned to endemic. Over 60% of Americans have already had covid. From a policy perspective, it is really about funds. There are a lot of deaths annually from influenza, but it is not considered a pandemic partly because it is seasonal. Covid doesn't appear to be seasonal, but strains may be. They are anticipating the WHO, whom you cited, but they are not so far off from WHO assessment.

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"Last week, the number of weekly reported deaths from COVID-19 was the lowest since March 2020," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of the World Health Organization said. "We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic. We're not there yet, but the end is in sight."

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The WHO outlined six key actions for countries to take in order to reduce the threat of COVID. Their recommendations include continued testing, treatment and vaccinations, infection control in health care facilities, steps to combat misinformation and clear public communication.

Unclear how much more of that could get traction in the US. I think we know that most of our conservative pals are going to avoid getting tested for COVID until they have to get treated at a medical facility. They're not likely to quarantine, or wear a mask, and they'll continue to spread misinformation. So you might want to save your handwringing for them, and not Biden. You know, the people banning mask mandates.

Meanwhile, I just got my Omicron booster and bought a fresh pack of N95 masks for when I travel. I probably had a little extra urgency thanks to you, cherry, so thank you.

Meanwhile -

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Overall, 1 in 13 adults in the U.S. (7.5%) have “long COVID” symptoms, defined as symptoms lasting three or more months after first contracting the virus, and that they didn’t have prior to their COVID-19 infection.

The infection dies but the health effects live on forever, but don't try convincing the crowd spreading memes about chicken soup and bed rest.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4553 on: September 19, 2022, 02:13:01 PM »
Not giving up that easily on calling off my pandemic so soon.

So again looking at the math I wonder how what we have now with Covid compares to the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

So we had 12,469 swine flu deaths during that one year period and that was considered bad enough to be a pandemic.

At 400 deaths a day, doing the math, that takes us about 31 days, one long month, to hit that previous pandemic number for an entire year.

When you've got 400-500 deaths a day, it doesn't make a lot of sense to say that's low enough to declare that the pandemic is over. You can crunch all the numbers you want factoring in morbidity, risk, probability, fatality, and whatever other variables you can find to throw into the mix but in the end if the final number comes out to 400-500 per day, that seems like it's very well into the pandemic range no matter how you slice and dice it. Just because it's lower than the all time highs of this pandemic doesn't matter if it's still multiples higher than the previous all time highs of a recent pandemic like swine flu.

I also would like to quibble again with Biden's proclamation that “If you notice, no one’s wearing masks." Well I'm still wearing masks. I guess that makes me no one. And all the other people still wearing masks are nobodies too in Biden's estimation. Not only is he wrong but he's rude.

Here's some more of that pushback I mentioned earlier so it's not just me who thinks Biden is delusional.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/health-experts-dismayed-by-president-bidens-view-that-the-pandemic-is-over-hell-no-not-even-close-11663596394

"@EricTopol
Wish this was true. What's over is @POTUS's and our government's will to get ahead of it, with magical thinking on the new bivalent boosters. Ignores #LongCovid, inevitability of new variants, and our current incapability for blocking infections and transmission"

"@DrEricDing
Is the pandemic over?⚠️Hell no—Not even close.
🔹 Excess mortality still exceeds THIRD global cause of death!
🔹#LongCOVID itself is a pandemic crisis
🔹Evolution of new virus variants not done yet
🔹Transmission still very high

4) Damnit… we have seen the “it’s over” dismissive nonsense before. Remember in May 2021 when CDC dropped mask mandate? Remember how many died in the subsequent August-September 2021 #Deltavariant wave and then the Dec-Feb first #Omicron wave??? ➡️Hundreds of thousands died.

⚠️I’m doubling down—@CDCgov most definitely made a *grave mistake* in May dropping mask rules for vaccinated & lending momentum to anti-maskera. I said it before, and I’ll say it again —@CDCDirector needs to reinstate the mask rules to fight #DeltaVariant ASAP!"

-------------------------------------------------

And on and on from the experts basing their opinions on science the way Biden said he would but clearly isn't.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4554 on: September 19, 2022, 02:32:40 PM »
cherry, do you think there's any realistic way to lower the current transmission, hospitalization, and death rates in the US? I mean, you can look at the number of deaths, sure, and say "that's still a lot", but it doesn't really matter if there's no way to get it down. Otherwise the "war on covid" works out like the "war on drugs" and the "war on poverty" and the other endless fights against things that kill people that we never got rid of. We missed our chance at containment a long time ago, and that's not on Biden. I think we might have still had a chance to avoid the future we're in '21 if people had committed to vaccines before the mutations, kept their mask mandates, and tested and traced. That's no longer possible. I think the death rate we have now is likely to persist, at least until we develop better treatments.

If Biden hadn't suggested the pandemic was over, would any additional people be getting vaccinated, wearing masks, or isolating?

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4555 on: September 19, 2022, 02:43:31 PM »
I don't know of a pandemic definition that states the pandemic is over when you've gotten the death and transmission rates as long as you're going to even if they're still absurdly high.

I did see one tweet that seemed to sum up how it's over that plays right into the war on drugs, on poverty, and in Afghanistan.

The Biden approach.

The war on Covid is over. We surrender. Everybody drop your masks.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4556 on: September 19, 2022, 02:51:56 PM »
Do I think there's anything we can still do?

Yes.

Wear quality masks when indoors in crowds.

Mandates?

No, the mandates aren't going to happen. But what would be helpful is the truth from our government, CDC, and powerful politicians like Biden along the lines of yes there is still a pandemic with a 9-11's worth of dead Americans every week and what you can do to help your fellow citizens is get vaccinated and wear a mask indoors in crowds. Nobody is going to force you to do either but the science says that will help keep you alive and free of long covid along with your fellow citizens including the elderly, immuno-compromised, and those with comorbidities who are most at risk. If you don't care about any of that enough to wear a mask then hey it's a free country but the science says that's the best play right now so you have the information you need to make your choice and for everyone who chooses to wear a mask well I salute you.

What do we get instead?

The pandemic is over. No one is wearing masks.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4557 on: September 19, 2022, 02:54:17 PM »
And if vaccines are the answer including the boosters well Biden just sabotaged that effort along with masks.

Why get the vaccines if the pandemic is over?

https://www.ft.com/content/c6fcbde9-9575-4c9c-a6eb-2c8796c2c5cb

"Investors ditch vaccine stocks after Joe Biden says ‘pandemic is over’

Top jab makers lose combined $10bn of market value amid fears over growing public apathy"

------------------------------------

"I did that!"

- Joe Biden

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4558 on: September 22, 2022, 08:54:57 AM »
The White House had words for those including some here who seem to believe that the President was accurately referring to epidemiological reality when he said that the pandemic is over.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/09/fauci-addresses-the-pandemic-is-over/671507/

"According to Politico, Biden’s remarks caught senior administration health officials off guard, and indeed, in the following days, the White House clarified that the president was referring to public sentiment, not epidemiological reality."

By public sentiment Biden is obviously referring to wearing masks and many will extend that to getting vaccines and boosters and social distancing. He's telling people to relax and let their guard down.

And Fauci basically slapped Biden upside the head saying that "easing up on our efforts to fight the pandemic now, he said, would be like saying, “Just because I see what the finish line is, I’m gonna stop and get a hotdog. No, you don’t want to do that.”

-----------------------------------

But that's exactly what Biden's saying. Just like he said before. Stop wearing masks. No one is wearing masks. Everyone seems to be in pretty good shape. It's over. Biden is doing the same thing he did before and expecting a different result.

One of the experts familiar with the science says Biden is wrong.

https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/20/biden-the-pandemic-is-over-omicron-covid-is-the-pandemic-over/

"Declaring a public health emergency over too soon could very well be a mistake, because we know COVID to be “like a fire, where the embers are still smoldering,” he said.

There’s a potential for it to really reignite. I would prefer to continue to prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.”

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4559 on: September 26, 2022, 12:51:31 PM »
Pandemic over! Says Canada.

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Canada has said it is dropping all remaining Covid border restrictions, including vaccine requirements for travellers.

As of 1 October, travellers will also no longer need to provide proof of Covid vaccination, to undergo any testing or to isolate and quarantine.

The mask mandate on planes and trains will also be lifted.

The ArriveCan app - used to upload health documents when entering Canada - will become optional.

msquared

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4560 on: September 26, 2022, 12:53:33 PM »
The Cayman Islands are also open. They had a very strict lockdown for a few years but are open again.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4561 on: September 26, 2022, 01:18:30 PM »
People seem to have this misconception that pandemic equals masks and vaccines and travel restrictions. We've had pandemics before without any of that so Covid could still be a pandemic without any of those things too.

"It's not as bad as it used to be" isn't the criterion for ending a pandemic. Covid is still ten times worse right now than the swine flu pandemic ever was. There's more transmission, more deaths, a higher death rate, more hospitalizations, and long covid on top of all of it. If the Covid pandemic is over then the swine flu pandemic never was and it would need to be retconned out of existence like Pluto was as a planet.

Now if someone were to say the Covid pandemic is ongoing but we're going to treat it more like most of the previous pandemics that we've had over the last hundred years with the exception of the Spanish Flu pandemic, that might make some sense. People could agree or disagree about whether it's the right approach, but at least it wouldn't be another effort at redefining words. Words like inflation, recession, victory in Afghanistan, bipartisan, infrastructure, vaccine, man, woman, and on and on and on.

Just looked it up and sure enough someone already wrote an article about it and I added some of their words to my own list.

 https://www.heritage.org/progressivism/commentary/how-biden-administration-redefines-words-reshapes-facts-serve-its-purpose

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4562 on: September 26, 2022, 02:49:38 PM »
And when the WHO says the pandemic is over, are you going to gainsay them as well? They are moving in that direction.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4563 on: September 26, 2022, 02:57:24 PM »
They're the authority so when they say it's over then officially it is by definition over.  But Biden's wishful thinking is likely to end up making things worse just like his celebrating too early did last time.

DJQuag

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4564 on: September 26, 2022, 04:35:09 PM »
I feel the pandemic is over in that the people who were really vulnerable, to this completely new disease, died early, and now there's a vaccine the people who aren't particularly vulnerable but still get sick, if they die, it's their own fault.

At this point it's the flu. It wasn't when it started, it was killing a whole lot of people, but now it isn't. And just like the flu it'll evolve a little year to year and then it's time for a booster.

That's not to say it can't turn deadly again. Every so often influenza takes a left turn in it's mutations and kills a whole lot of us.

Tom

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4565 on: September 26, 2022, 05:03:29 PM »
Quote
it was killing a whole lot of people, but now it isn't
Well, that depends entirely on how you're defining "a whole lot." It's about a tenth of what it was at its peak here in the U.S., but is still around 300-400 deaths a day, which is near where it was when the country first started entering lockdowns. It's more correct, as you note, to observe that it isn't killing a large percentage of people anymore.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4566 on: September 26, 2022, 06:45:24 PM »
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages

I could be reading this chart wrong but...

It looks like in July of 2022, the last month that they give data for, 43% of the people dying were vaccinated.

About 18% had the primary + one booster, about 16% only primary, and about 9% with the primary plus two boosters.

If that many vaccinated people are dying, it really looks like they were given a false sense of security and they should have kept wearing masks and social distancing.

If someone has better numbers on the percentage of people dying who are vaccinated, that would be good to know. If it's as high as these numbers indicate, our government should be doing more to make people aware of the danger they're still in even if vaccinated. If that information is being hidden because "they" think it will discourage vaccination and get even more people killed, that would be par for the course for how our government has conducted itself since the beginning, with deception they figured was for our own good but which backfired in the end.

So it looks like a lot of people are dying even though they're vaccinated, up to 40% and even the 9% that have their boosters is still very high. They got their vaccinations so whose fault is it now when they die? Maybe the person who told them they didn't need to wear a mask anymore.

There is some more information and I may be looking at a base rate fallacy but even if that's the case it doesn't change the fact that a lot of vaccinated people are still dying even though they did their duty, dying because they misplaced their trust in the vaccines and more than likely dropped their masks and social distancing because they naively trusted Biden's encouragement and it cost them everything.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4567 on: September 26, 2022, 09:17:38 PM »
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages

I could be reading this chart wrong but...

It looks like in July of 2022, the last month that they give data for, 43% of the people dying were vaccinated.

About 18% had the primary + one booster, about 16% only primary, and about 9% with the primary plus two boosters.

The most likely to be vaccinated are old people, who are also the most likely to die.  Many of them develop little to no immunity after being vaccinated so are still vulnerable.  They also are extremely weak and thus prone to dying from anything.

So unless we know the age distribution and rates of vaccination the percentage who died who were vaccinated is fairly meaningless.

Tom

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #4568 on: September 26, 2022, 09:57:10 PM »
It's also worth noting that around 78% of the U.S. population has received some COVID vaccine, so even without knowing age distribution we can say that the vaccine -- especially with boosters, as recommended -- has a significant effect. It's nowhere near as effective as most mature vaccines for other illnesses, but it's far and away the most effective option available to people who cannot fully self-isolate. Given its experimental nature, I'm personally pretty happy with its apparent performance.