Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 72182 times)

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #500 on: March 28, 2020, 12:19:39 PM »
Here is the paper,

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

Cohort is 80 people, observational study, median age 52, age range 18-88, all had at least one chronic disease that was a risk factor (diabetes, hypertension, chornic respiratory disease, etc.), and had a positive Covid-19 test on admittal.

Clinical course seems pretty similar to those without this treatment from what I can tell?

Quote
The majority (65/80, 81.3%) of patients had favourable outcome and were discharged from our unit at the time of writing with low NEWS scores (61/65, 93.8%). Only 15% required oxygen therapy. Three patients were transferred to the ICU, of whom two improved and were then returned to the ID ward. One 74 year-old patient was still in ICU at the time of writing. Finally, one 86 year-old patient who was not transferred to the ICU, died in the ID ward (Supplementary Table 1).

So 15% oxygen therapy (typical is 15%), 4% ICU (typical 5%).  1% death (1 death) (typical .5-1% - 1 death, also one was still in ICU and at risk at the time of writing).  They are essentially almost exactly in line with typical results.

They are claiming a lower viral load and faster discharge - but because it isn't controlled, it isn't clear that is the case - though it seems plausible. 

They are starting treatment median, 4.9 days after symptom onset, and they remain contaigious till up to day 12,

Quote
A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. The number of patients presumably contagious (with a PCR Ct value <34) steadily decreased overtime and reached zero on Day12 (Figure 1).  A marked decrease was observed after six days of treatment. After ten days, two patients only were still presumably contagious with Ct values of 32 and 29 respectively.

They seem to compare with studies that are non-comparable and misunderstand the literature.  Their claim on viral load - 5 days symptoms before hospital, 6-12 days of treatment to clear.  If we use 5-14 days before presenting symptoms.  That is 16-31 days of viral load - which is the finding in the literature for untreated individuals.

The 'ward stay' statistic isn't really meaningful, since discharge conditions are such that they are sending people home who are still contagious.

I could be wrong, but I think they are basically getting similar results to typically treated individuals and simply misunderstood the implications of the literature (ie this study was measuring viral load from time of admittal, the research literature was measuring viral load from time of exposure).  Hopefully case controlled studies will show that they really are showing improved outcome and improved clinical course.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 12:21:46 PM by LetterRip »

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #501 on: March 28, 2020, 12:26:23 PM »
The cohort they compared with in their paper was,

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In a cohort of 191 Chinese inpatients, of whom 95% received antibiotics and 21% received an association of lopinavir and ritonavir, the median duration of fever was 12 days and that of cough 19 days in survivors, with a 28% case-fatality rate (18).

However, case fatality rate for a sample of CoVID-19 positive individuals is .5-1% unless there is hospital overload.  So that Chinese cohort is composed of extremely ill individials, and in no way comparable to the cohort in the Italian study.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #502 on: March 28, 2020, 12:28:15 PM »
I hope this treatment turns out to be an improvement on the general population outcomes, but you point out that it's still too early to be sure.  Thanks for the analysis.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #503 on: March 28, 2020, 06:46:05 PM »
Finally. This is the way to go. And it's a very good start at understanding what all we're dealing with here.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/why-coronavirus-antibody-testing-one-colorado-town-could-204200745.html

"United Biomedical is now working with San Miguel County, which includes the famous Rocky Mountain ski destination, to test all 8,000 residents for COVID-19 antibodies -- making it the first community in the country to do widespread antibody testing."

This needs to be done for everyone in the country who is willing, and the sooner the better. Not only can it help get things back closer to normal if it turns out those who've been exposed have some immunity but if it's done very quickly it can tell us the time frame of when initial exposures happened whereas if we wait six months there will be no telling because asymptomatic people or those with light symptoms could have gotten it almost any time as opposed to two months ago as many anecdotal reports suggest.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #504 on: March 28, 2020, 07:10:04 PM »
From the linked article:

Quote
United Biomedical’s testing program began last week, starting with first responders, health care workers, teachers, essential workers and their families. So far, no one has tested positive. Records show one San Miguel resident, who has not yet taken the new antibody test, was confirmed to have COVID-19 by a test that looks for the virus' genetic material, not bloodborne antibodies.

Going from that, I'd say the Telluride ski resort escaped having an infected and contagious person spending much, if any, time on the lifts or at areas where they could spread it. Or their test is defective.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #505 on: March 28, 2020, 09:33:28 PM »
More about masks. Nothing definitive but leaning toward public use being beneficial. Not really much new so won't quote anything  this time.

https://qz.com/1826717/do-masks-protect-against-coronavirus/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #506 on: March 29, 2020, 01:18:57 AM »
I’m having a tough time reconciling this. From what I’ve read, Japan's first case was reported in early January. No social-distancing. No national emergency declared. Population 126 million—yet only 52 deaths.

Meanwhile, Italy’s been locked for weeks & is seeing no progress

Anyone have theories as to why? Please don’t say it’s because Italians kiss more,

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #507 on: March 29, 2020, 02:40:50 AM »
Face masks are probably part of it, they've been widely used in Asia for a long time, with strong encouragement to use them when a potential pandemic is on the loose.

As previously discussed, and openly acknowledged even in the US, while the use of a mask the prevent catching something may be questionable(and present something of a moral hazard, as people may put themselves at risk because "the mask will save them"), someone who is infected wearing a mask can potentially reduce the spread considerably. Maybe not stop it completely, but reduce it by a lot. (And that also is another hazard, as people can then decide it's okay to not self-quarantine because their mask is protecting others)

Basically people are very effective at finding ways to rationalize stupid decisions, so the US Health Officials--with a particular need due to shortage, have instead opted to tell people to not bother with the masks.

I could fully believe that wide-spread mask use in Japan has potentially kept the R factor to somewhere close to 1, which has kept them from having a mass contagion so far.

Unlike the South Korea case, where a super-spreader found their into a mega-Church which disallowed the use of face masks while inside the building to my understanding.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #508 on: March 29, 2020, 03:08:06 AM »
For italy,

they have a physically intimate culture - they touch friends, family and strangers regularly.  They also have multigenerational living - grandpa and grandma live with their children and grandchildren.  They are also highly religious and thus you get large amounts of socialization crowds.   They are loud (which means more aerosolization of saliva). They also have poor hand washing habits relative to many countries,

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-european-countries-that-wash-their-hands-least-after-going-to-the-toilet-a6757711.html

They also largely ignored the spread it till it was already out of control.

Japan is hyper hygenic compared to many western countries.  Also they do bowing instead of shaking, and many people wear masks for allergies, to prevent sun damage, as well as to prevent illness spread, etc.  The masks don't so much prevent you from 'getting' as it keeps infected and unaware from spreading.  They also have public transport habits such as traveling silently, and not talking on cell phones, that prevent aerosolization of saliva.

Also they took significant measures immediately - particularly discouraging enclosed gatherings - which have a 20 fold higher risk transmission than outdoors. They immediately began testing and doing track and trace and isolations as needed.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #509 on: March 29, 2020, 07:22:01 AM »
Your points about cultural differences and homogeneous mask usage make sense, but I'm not sure that Japan did take concerted early and significant action - sure they closed schools, but they didn't really encourage or enforce social distancing... it certainly didn't take hold, as illustrated by the cherry blossom fiasco last week.

Also, their rate of testing is one of the lowest in any first world country -  only about 0.015% of the population has been tested...

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #510 on: March 29, 2020, 09:52:48 AM »
For some, you have to ask yourself whether you're going to live in fear or have faith in the Lord.  The chosen have chosen for their flocks.

Central church hosts more than 1,800 people amid covid-19 outbreak

Liberty University let more than 1,000 students return to campus during the coronavirus outbreak

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #511 on: March 29, 2020, 10:43:56 AM »
I agree, some people are being criminally irresponsible - but I am not convinced that Liberty University is actually acting irresponsibly - my understanding is that the majority of those on campus are foreign students who would otherwise have nowhere else to go if kicked out of their residences.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #512 on: March 29, 2020, 10:50:49 AM »
Your points about cultural differences and homogeneous mask usage make sense, but I'm not sure that Japan did take concerted early and significant action - sure they closed schools, but they didn't really encourage or enforce social distancing... it certainly didn't take hold, as illustrated by the cherry blossom fiasco last week.

Also, their rate of testing is one of the lowest in any first world country -  only about 0.015% of the population has been tested...

They shut down travel from foreign nationals from China February 1.  They did quarantine and tracing of the contacts.  If you can largely prevent it getting in, then it can't spread.  Asside from China - their next most popualr tourism sources South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan - all had excellent responses so not much risk of getting infected tourists from those locations.  I think they've been slow to ban travel from the US - which might hurt them.

The cherry blossoms - pretty much every one was wearing masks, and the photos I've seen were taken at bottlenecks, and it was outdoors.  The risk wasn't that high with outdoor + masks.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #513 on: March 29, 2020, 10:57:00 AM »
Some numbers from the USA
  • Between March 19-22: daily deaths (slightly more than) doubled in 3 days
  • Between March 22-25: daily deaths (slightly more than) doubled in 3 days
  • Between March 26-28: daily deaths (slightly less than) doubled in 2 days
It looks to be just the beginning, and the rate of increase in daily deaths is itself increasing, as expected.


Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #514 on: March 29, 2020, 11:03:41 AM »
I agree, some people are being criminally irresponsible - but I am not convinced that Liberty University is actually acting irresponsibly - my understanding is that the majority of those on campus are foreign students who would otherwise have nowhere else to go if kicked out of their residences.

That applies to some of the returning students, but many others are coming back, as well.  Not all dorms will be opened for the returnees.  In an interview, Falwell justified the policy by saying that "most of the students were not at risk due to their age".  State officials are saying that they were blindsided and misled by the scale of the influx and are concerned that the state's social distancing mandate can't be observed in the dorms.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #515 on: March 29, 2020, 12:22:12 PM »
On FoxNews/Hannity: Trum disputes need for 30,000 ventilators
Quote
"I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators," Trump said on "Hannity" Thursday night in an apparent reference to Cuomo's recent claim that the state needed 30,000 ventilators. "You know, you go into major hospitals sometimes and they'll have two ventilators and now all of a sudden they're saying, 'Can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"
Yesterday, there were 222 deaths in New York, which equates to roughly 500 ICU cases, 1000 severe cases and about 750 ventilators required.  Currently, the number of deaths in New York is doubling every 2 days.

Just doing back of the napkin math, here and assuming a doubling of deaths and ICU cases every 3 days (not 2) we get the following:
  • March 31 ~ 1,500 ventilators
  • April 3 ~ 3,000 ventilators
  • April 6 ~ 6,000 vent
  • April 9 ~ 12,000
  • April 15 ~ 24,000
Now, if instead we assume a doubling of deaths and ICU cases every 2 days:
  • March 30 ~ 1,500 ventilators
  • April 1 ~ 3,000 ventilators
  • April 3 ~ 6,000 vent
  • April 5 ~ 12,000
  • April 7 ~ 24,000
  • April 9 ~ 48,000
Clearly, there are other variables at play, not least is whether and to what extent physical distancing in the past 2 weeks will affect that trend.

But it's also clear that 30,000 might in fact not be enough ventilators if current trends continue.

Oh, and from that same article - it referenced the following Trump tweet:
Quote
General Motors MUST immediately open their stupidly abandoned Lordstown plant in Ohio, or some other plant, and START MAKING VENTILATORS, NOW!!!!!!  FORD, GET GOING ON VENTILATORS, FAST!!!!!!  @GeneralMotors  @Ford
But GM sold that plant/buildings back in November 2019...  I'm not sure how GM would go about "opening" it...

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #516 on: March 29, 2020, 12:39:11 PM »
A tale of two war zones in NYC hospital updates.

The foxnews link below refers to 2nd hand info from "a third-year internal medicine medical resident" about hospitals being "overwhelmed", and that some are "so overrun with dying patients that they’ve brought in refrigerated trucks to handle the bodies"

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

Then there's a person walking around a hospital in downtown Brooklyn yesterday that seems quite counter to what the media is saying. Is it possible that this one particular hospital has been spared the carnage? Maybe. Or maybe inside its complete pandemonium but outside it's perfectly quiet? Dunno.

https://twitter.com/toddstarnes/status/1243948364695298050

Ornery posters are probably outliers re: news skepticism, but I'm really concerned that manufactured panic has outstripped any utility it could possibly have.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #517 on: March 29, 2020, 12:48:38 PM »
... or you could look at the numbers...

msquared

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #518 on: March 29, 2020, 12:57:26 PM »
My mom spends the winters on Cayman Island. They have been in lockdown for a while.  She sent me this article about the lockdown.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daphneewingchow/2020/03/29/how-a-little-island-in-the-caribbean-sea-is-standing-up-to-the-goliath-of-coronavirus/#5ec62477235e

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #519 on: March 29, 2020, 01:06:21 PM »
... or you could look at the numbers...

I absolutely am looking at the numbers and taking them seriously.

I'm already operating within the prescribed social guidelines and will continue to do so.

That said, with so many unknowns, I'm going to take every projection from the experts with a 10-pound bag of salt. So you'll forgive me if I have the temerity to be skeptical of DonaldD's napkin math on an internet forum.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #520 on: March 29, 2020, 01:20:12 PM »
Why would you believe my analysis?  The historical numbers and trends are there to see - what used to be known as "facts" but which are now known as "fake news".

Will that trend continue it increase, will the rate of increase level off?  This are open questions.

But looking at images inside of one hospital and using that anecdotal 'evidence' to trigger oneself?  That's what I was pointing out, and suggesting that you look at the current numbers and trends, instead.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #521 on: March 29, 2020, 03:34:26 PM »
A tale of two war zones in NYC hospital updates.

The foxnews link below refers to 2nd hand info from "a third-year internal medicine medical resident" about hospitals being "overwhelmed", and that some are "so overrun with dying patients that they’ve brought in refrigerated trucks to handle the bodies"

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nyc-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients-resident-warns

Then there's a person walking around a hospital in downtown Brooklyn yesterday that seems quite counter to what the media is saying. Is it possible that this one particular hospital has been spared the carnage? Maybe. Or maybe inside its complete pandemonium but outside it's perfectly quiet? Dunno.

https://twitter.com/toddstarnes/status/1243948364695298050

Ornery posters are probably outliers re: news skepticism, but I'm really concerned that manufactured panic has outstripped any utility it could possibly have.

According to the Brooklyn Hospital Center website, as of March 25 they had tested and 72 patients positive for coronavirus and have a total capacity of about 130 beds.  Perhaps they aren't equipped for that number of patients and send them elsewhere.  A commenter on the post says the hospital is not in Brooklyn, but in Ft. Greene.  I don't know if that's true or where that is, exactly.  Not to be skeptical, but Todd Starnes (a FOX conservative commentator) refers to the "lamestream media" in his piece.  Somehow I get the feeling this is not a particularly honest report.   When was this video shot?  Is there more context about why there aren't more people around (in the rain)?

Edit: My mistake. Here's an update on Todd Starnes from October, 2019:

Quote
Fox News has parted ways with far-right radio host Todd Starnes, The Wrap confirmed Wednesday afternoon.

The conservative talking head is best-known for his incendiary anti-LGBT, xenophobic, and racist remarks both on-air, across Fox News programming and on his Fox Nation and Fox News Radio shows, and in his FoxNews.com columns. Perhaps most famously, Starnes compared migrants to Nazis and declared that America is being “invaded by a horde.” And as The Wrap noted, his most recent brush with controversy came just days ago when he and a guest agreed on his radio show that Democrats may worship Moloch, a pagan god that allowed child sacrifice.

Starnes also has a long history of erroneous reporting, having once been fired from Baptist Press over “factual and contextual errors” and “misrepresentations.”
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 03:38:03 PM by Kasandra »

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #522 on: March 29, 2020, 04:25:16 PM »
Statements from this thread that did not age well...

Quote
This virus keeps getting headlines and it's just stupid.

I think we're probably good for another week or so of this and then they'll move on to the next thing.

If you can get a box [of N95 masks] you're not taking away from healthcare providers

COVID 19 just isn't that serious.   

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #523 on: March 29, 2020, 04:53:59 PM »
Quote from: Scottf
https://twitter.com/toddstarnes/status/1243948364695298050

Ornery posters are probably outliers re: news skepticism
It's unclear exactly what you are saying here... Was it that, even though the link is to a statement by Todd Starnes, towards whom you maintain a fastidious level of skepticism, you still cannot discount what he wrote without additional investigation?

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #524 on: March 29, 2020, 06:08:48 PM »
I meant that people in this forum are probably more skeptical in general as to what various news/anecdotal sources are conveying. I could be wrong, maybe it’s more me.

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #525 on: March 29, 2020, 06:22:22 PM »
Statements from this thread that did not age well...

Quote
This virus keeps getting headlines and it's just stupid.

I think we're probably good for another week or so of this and then they'll move on to the next thing.

If you can get a box [of N95 masks] you're not taking away from healthcare providers

COVID 19 just isn't that serious.   

A few weeks from now, there’ll be a lot of statements that didn't age well.


DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #526 on: March 29, 2020, 06:23:08 PM »
Right, Scottf. So that was you being skeptical of Todd Starnes' article?

edited to make clear this response was addressed to Scottf's post at 06:08:48
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 06:29:00 PM by DonaldD »

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #527 on: March 29, 2020, 06:25:32 PM »
I’ve no idea what you’re talking about.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #528 on: March 29, 2020, 06:41:30 PM »
Quote
A few weeks from now, there’ll be a lot of statements that didn't age well.
Probably.  But those quotes are already obviously, egregiously wrong.

You and I rarely see eye to eye on much, but I will say that many of your posts on this topic were bang on, and I would consider most of them reasonable.  Now, sometime the posts veered into partisanship - I'm ignoring those.  But there has been a lot of reasonable posts from most people on this thread.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #529 on: March 29, 2020, 06:54:57 PM »
It's no secret that I have no respect for Trump, but I'll give credit where it is due.

Quote
President Donald Trump said Sunday he would extend his social distancing guidelines to April 30 as novel coronavirus continues to spread throughout the US.

"The better you do, the faster this whole nightmare will end," the President said at a White House news conference. "Therefore, we will be extending our guidelines to April 30th, to slow the spread. On Tuesday we will be finalizing these plans and providing a summary of our findings, supporting data and strategy to the American people."

Good job Mr. President. Keep it up.

wmLambert

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #530 on: March 29, 2020, 08:03:03 PM »
...Currently, the number of deaths in New York is doubling every 2 days.

That is an unsustainable rate. Donald Duck was once set to be paid by Uncle Scrooge for something, so the Woodchucks helped him out. They took a checkerboard and asked Uncle Scrooge to pay him a penny on the first day and put it on the first square, then he was to double it each day and put two cents on the second square, and so on. Scrooge agreed. There is not enough money in the world to fill that checkerboard. Doubling gets out of whack rapidly. Halfway through the board would be over $42 million. The full board would be $18+ with 18 zeros after it. Two months and everyone on Earth would have died twice.

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #531 on: March 29, 2020, 08:05:53 PM »
Right, Scottf. So that was you being skeptical of Todd Starnes' article?

edited to make clear this response was addressed to Scottf's post at 06:08:48

Yes, I’m skeptical of a lot of the information being bandied about right now. I’m skeptical when I hear that NYC hospitals are completely overwhelmed and also skeptical of footage that makes it seem like any other day. The media has no motivation to promote information in a non-sensational way, and there is not shortage of nutbars with conspiracy theories.

I recommend skepticism as a baseline in times like these while also trying to err on the side of common sense.


LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #532 on: March 29, 2020, 08:30:27 PM »
That is an unsustainable rate.

It is indeed.  Real world infections are sigmoid.  Once it hits about 30-50% of the population, the herd immunity causes it to rapidly decelerate till reaching about 70% of the population and then will largely die off.  That is why you don't see 100% penetrance with infections.

Many growth processes have seeming exponential growth when resources are rich, but as the resource becomes scarce the competition for resources strangle the growth curve.  In this case the scarce resource will be uninfected humans.

Of course 70% penetrance at .5% mortality rate is 1.15 million dead.  If mortality is 1% 2.3 million dead.  If the system is overwhelmed and most can't be treated could be 4% mortality - 9.2 million dead.

Quote
Donald Duck was once set to be paid by Uncle Scrooge for something, so the Woodchucks helped him out. They took a checkerboard and asked Uncle Scrooge to pay him a penny on the first day and put it on the first square, then he was to double it each day and put two cents on the second square, and so on. Scrooge agreed. There is not enough money in the world to fill that checkerboard. Doubling gets out of whack rapidly. Halfway through the board would be over $42 million. The full board would be $18+ with 18 zeros after it. Two months and everyone on Earth would have died twice.

This is based on an old fable called the Kings Chessboard.  A wise man was offered a reward by a king - and the wise man suggested that for each square of the chessboard the king pay him double the rice/wheat of the previous square starting with one grain of rice/wheat in the first square.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

wmLambert

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #533 on: March 29, 2020, 08:54:30 PM »
...This is based on an old fable called the Kings Chessboard.  A wise man was offered a reward by a king - and the wise man suggested that for each square of the chessboard the king pay him double the rice/wheat of the previous square starting with one grain of rice/wheat in the first square.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Such a shame, no mention on Wikipedia about Uncle Scrooge, Donald, or the Woodchucks. Doesn't anyone bother with classic literature anymore?

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #534 on: March 30, 2020, 12:20:59 AM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/choir-decided-ahead-rehearsal-now-023414705.html

"Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols — particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer.

The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger "respiratory droplets," which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface.

But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained "viable and infectious" for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions.

"Marr, the Virginia Tech researcher, said that the choir outbreak reminded her of a classic case study in the spread of infectious disease.

In 1977, an Alaska Airlines flight returned to Homer, Alaska, after experiencing engine trouble and sat on the tarmac there for four hours with the ventilation system off.

Of the 49 passengers on board, 35 developed flu symptoms and five were hospitalized. Researchers ultimately traced the outbreak to a woman who felt fine when she boarded but later became ill.

The case jolted epidemiologists into the realization that influenza could spread through the air.

Research has already shown that the coronavirus is nearly twice as contagious as influenza and far more deadly."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Without masks, one precaution that could be taken to reduce the chance of spreading the virus could be to simply stop talking. Everyone just try to breathe through their nose. I wonder if that would help. LetterRip mentioned it regarding the Japanese. If you had a packed train full of silent people compared to a packed train full of loud people jibber jabbering on their cell phones trying to be heard over one another at the end of the train ride with the same initial conditions of asymptomatic carriers present would there be a big difference in how many new people got infected?

I doubt this would catch on but one idea would be for people while they are out shopping and engaging in necessary interactions to do as little talking as possible. Our government could recommend some simple signs for the grocery store clerks and customers to exchange the usual pleasantries silently. And closed mouth smiles are of course always acceptable. Salutes for greetings may take the place of the elbow bumps as salutes work great even at a distance.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #535 on: March 30, 2020, 05:48:55 AM »
I agree, some people are being criminally irresponsible - but I am not convinced that Liberty University is actually acting irresponsibly - my understanding is that the majority of those on campus are foreign students who would otherwise have nowhere else to go if kicked out of their residences.

As of Friday a dozen students at Liberty U have been diagnosed with COVID-19.  God only knows if there's a connection between that and them all being back in the dorms together.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #536 on: March 30, 2020, 07:58:43 AM »
That is an unsustainable rate.

It is indeed.  Real world infections are sigmoid.  Once it hits about 30-50% of the population, the herd immunity causes it to rapidly decelerate till reaching about 70% of the population and then will largely die off.
Yes... of course, New York won't be anywhere near that level of penetration by the time the state reaches 30,000 people requiring ventilators.  So herd immunity will have no effect on the next 10 days' growth in infections (many of which are already dialled in.)

The only real question is how well changes in personal behaviours implemented in the past couple of weeks have affected and will affect the spread.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #537 on: March 30, 2020, 09:02:52 AM »
An interesting idea. Immunity certificates. If the immunity holds this would of course help the economy tremendously, if they can get accurate tests.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-could-issue-hundreds-thousands-114500027.html

"German researchers plan to send out hundreds of thousands of coronavirus antibody tests over the coming weeks.
Individuals who test positive could be given an 'immunity certificate' which would allow them to leave their coronavirus lockdown early. Other countries, including the United Kingdom, are planning similar mass-testing in order to ease the global lockdown...

...However, coronavirus testing has so far been used with mixed success around the world.

Spain was recently forced to return tens of thousands of rapid coronavirus tests from a Chinese company after they were found to have only a 30% accuracy.

Some tests have also reportedly demonstrated false positives, where they have detected antibodies to other much more common forms of the coronavirus."

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #538 on: March 30, 2020, 10:03:58 AM »
I could see an unintended consequence if isolation measures last too long, and insufficient support is provided to those without certificates... people who become so desperate that they self-infect so that they could resume employment...

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #539 on: March 30, 2020, 10:15:53 AM »
Daily deaths in Italy dropped - pretty significantly - from about 900 the previous two days to about 750 yesterday.  Hopefully, Italy is turning the corner.

To date, there have now been (as of yesterday) 10,779 deaths due to coronavirus in Italy - that's roughly equivalent to 65,000 deaths in a country the size of the USA

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #540 on: March 30, 2020, 12:10:14 PM »
It might be turning the corner, or it might be protocol improvements.  It appears that putting ventilated people on their stomachs at a slight decline of the body (head lower than feet)- improves O2 stats and thus might be improving survival rates and decreasing demand for ventilators (makes it easier to move fluid out of the lungs and mucus isn't blocking the aveolar sacs as much).

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One technique he said had yielded dramatic results was to have patients lie on their stomach instead of on their back while on a ventilator. “Suddenly the oxygen level in the blood jumped by hundreds of percents,” he said.

https://atlantajewishtimes.timesofisrael.com/israeli-doctor-in-italy-says-new-innovative-treatments-flattening-the-curve/


DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #541 on: March 30, 2020, 12:20:30 PM »
In addition to the death rate improvement - the rate of new cases in Italy has also levelled off over the past 10 days - it's impossible to tell without knowing all the stats around the number of tests being given, but it looks like the newly-infected rate is now linear.

fizz

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #542 on: March 30, 2020, 12:23:30 PM »
Daily deaths in Italy dropped - pretty significantly - from about 900 the previous two days to about 750 yesterday.  Hopefully, Italy is turning the corner.

To date, there have now been (as of yesterday) 10,779 deaths due to coronavirus in Italy - that's roughly equivalent to 65,000 deaths in a country the size of the USA

About deaths and cases: right now in Italy the availability of test kits is quite low, and Lombardy especially is practicing a criticized regime of only testing the people with strong symptoms. Veneto is better (and in fact is doing a better job of containing the spread), but still, even if in most countries you can estimate that the real numbers of infected is higher than the number of verified ones, here experts estimate that ratio could even be 1/10.

Also, about deaths: always due to the lack of testing kits, especially in Lombardy, many that resides in nursing homes die even before being tested, and thus do not enter statistics. There are many nursing homes that have gone from 3-4 deaths a month to 40-50 deaths in the past month, without any testing or time to call for an ambulance.

Another phenomenon that's happening more and more, people that lives alone, both old and not so much old, that for whatever reason do not go to the hospital, and are found only later dead in their homes by neighbors that get suspicious not seeing them... be it for simple fatalism, or because at first they ignore the symptoms and when they worsen they are unable to call for help.

We will know how bad this have been only some time after the things will have settled.

But yes, it seems the countermeasures are starting to show their effect. In my city, that's in one of the regions that got hit hard but not even near to Lombardy level, a friend that work in our hospital is telling me that they are managing the flux: new cases and recovered people are more or less balancing right now, and we've still a third of the ICU we prepared free (they managed to quintuple the ICU beds in a week... my friend was really impressed by how everybody rose to the occasion), and we started flying in cases from Lombardy to help them.

This of course does not mean that we can simply let the lock down expire: if we did it, it would start climbing up again quite quickly.

Anyway: today numbers are +1648 cases, with +1590 that instead are recovered: we are getting near a balance...
Deaths are +812, still high, but those will likely lag a bit the other numbers, as people take a while to either die or recover after getting infected...

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_30marzo%20ENG.pdf
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 12:27:29 PM by fizz »

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #543 on: March 30, 2020, 02:19:39 PM »
Some good news from New York - though the number of cases is still increasing, the rate of doubling has slowed to every 6 days, as opposed to between every 2 or 3 days last week:
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New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the rate of hospitalizations for coronavirus cases in the state has slowed, citing the rate of "doubling" of people admitted to the hospital for Covid-19.

Cuomo said the rate of new hospitalizations is now doubling every six days, as compared to every two and three days like last week.

"So, while the overall number is going up, the rate of doubling is actually down," Cuomo said.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #544 on: March 30, 2020, 03:06:25 PM »
I've seen various charts that are flattening, at least some. Hospitalization rate is a better measure than new cases, IMO. Glad to see that's what Cuomo is using - although I hope it isn't because they are sending more borderline people home instead...

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #545 on: March 31, 2020, 04:07:19 AM »
Weird followup on the Starnes video of the Brooklyn Hospital Center.  Starnes is one of a group of "coronavirus deniers" who stake out hospitals across the country and video them during quiet moments.  They post their videos to conservative web sites to make the argument that the lamestream media is trying to scare the public into believing that the COVID-19 disease is worse than it really is.

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On Saturday, a video taken outside the Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York went viral, showing a quiet scene in an attempt to counter the idea that the coronavirus pandemic has strained some hospitals.

The video, taken by former Fox News commentator Todd Starnes, jump-started a conspiracy theory that resulted in a trending hashtag and millions of video views — all of which pushed the idea that the pandemic has been overblown by public health organizations and the media.

A day later, a different video of the same hospital went viral on Facebook and Twitter. It showed bodies being loaded onto an 18-wheeler outside the same hospital. The video, which was retweeted by a member of the New York City Council, was later confirmed as legitimate by the hospital.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #546 on: March 31, 2020, 04:27:26 AM »
The mask task.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-weighing-advising-americans-wear-070300787.html

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is considering whether to update its guidelines on the new coronavirus to advise Americans to wear homemade masks outside of the home — not so much to protect the people wearing the mask but as another tool to limit the spread of COVID-19, The Washington Post reports. The new virus is spread mainly through saliva droplets emitted during a cough, sneeze, or even talking, and having a mask to capture those drops would presumably keep sick, especially asymptomatic, coronavirus carriers from spreading the disease."

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #547 on: March 31, 2020, 09:39:39 AM »
The mask task.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-weighing-advising-americans-wear-070300787.html

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is considering whether to update its guidelines on the new coronavirus to advise Americans to wear homemade masks outside of the home — not so much to protect the people wearing the mask but as another tool to limit the spread of COVID-19, The Washington Post reports. The new virus is spread mainly through saliva droplets emitted during a cough, sneeze, or even talking, and having a mask to capture those drops would presumably keep sick, especially asymptomatic, coronavirus carriers from spreading the disease."

Why are you so fixated on this one issue? Are you hoping for everyone to wear masks for your protection, or something else? The fact still remains that hospitals are out of masks and some healthcare professionals are wearing halloween masks. But sure, let's make sure that random people are instructed to get them.

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #548 on: March 31, 2020, 11:03:05 AM »
Weird followup on the Starnes video of the Brooklyn Hospital Center.  Starnes is one of a group of "coronavirus deniers" who stake out hospitals across the country and video them during quiet moments.  They post their videos to conservative web sites to make the argument that the lamestream media is trying to scare the public into believing that the COVID-19 disease is worse than it really is.

I'm not sure how organized it is or if it's just a bunch of skeptic types trying to get their 15 minutes. I can see the path to the motivation, especially when you've got nonsense like CBS running B roll footage of an Italian emergency room and claiming it's NYC.

yossarian22c

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #549 on: March 31, 2020, 11:05:37 AM »
The mask task.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-weighing-advising-americans-wear-070300787.html

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is considering whether to update its guidelines on the new coronavirus to advise Americans to wear homemade masks outside of the home — not so much to protect the people wearing the mask but as another tool to limit the spread of COVID-19, The Washington Post reports. The new virus is spread mainly through saliva droplets emitted during a cough, sneeze, or even talking, and having a mask to capture those drops would presumably keep sick, especially asymptomatic, coronavirus carriers from spreading the disease."

I thought this has always been the official recommendation. That masks prevent people from spreading but don't necessarily protect the person wearing the mask (unless its an N95 mask). Again it comes down to supply - it isn't helpful to recommend people where masks unless you have enough masks for people. It will be TP run version 2. Hospitals are still struggling to get enough masks, adding 300 million people trying to buy them all at once isn't going to help matters.

I do think IF enough masks can be produced they can be a tool that is used to help society slowly reopen. But we still need to get the number of cases way down so that we can implement isolation and contact tracing. Once the number is down, masks, contact tracing, and broad testing can hopefully keep things in check until we have a safe effective vaccine.