coronavirus

[TheDrake]

Greece: 3 week lockdown
UK: 4 week lockdown
France: lockdown
Germany: lockdown
United States: Wheeeee!

[oldbrian]

I live in a very rural, very Trumpy area, and most of my facebook friends are neighbors and former high school classmates.

The main theme for the last 2 days has been "see - no new cases have been reported since the election. I told you it was all a hoax"

[DonaldD]

I live in a very rural, very Trumpy area, and most of my facebook friends are neighbors and former high school classmates.

The main theme for the last 2 days has been "see - no new cases have been reported since the election. I told you it was all a hoax"

Because I was itching to do this

Here are the last 7 days of average numbers.  Notice they are increasing and also, that 80,000 is 10,000 higher than the mid-summer record set in July.

Thursday 96,233
Wednesday 92423
Tuesday 88598
Monday 85957
Sunday 83234
Saturday 81528
Friday 80,593

[TheDrake]

Some patients are being treated in hallways of Utah hospitals. Others say when they call for a nurse, there’s not one available to assist for a half hour. And while there are still some empty ICU beds, there are so many nurses who can’t work due to their own infection or exposure to COVID-19, further exacerbating the problems.

But yeah, its just the flu, right? 

[TheDrake]

Quick update, I have not developed symptoms but another of our group picked it up. She's in an increasingly precarious position. Near constant fever, pain all over, luckily no respiratory so far. And she was diligent. Keep safe folks, more and more people are carriers and don't know it. Take a page from Chris Christie.

"Within 24 hours, I went from feeling absolutely fine to being in the intensive care unit," Christie said Friday on ABC's "Good Morning America." He said he was treated with the antiviral drug remdesivir and Eli Lilly's monoclonal antibody combination therapy.
News of his positive diagnosis -- which came a day after President Donald Trump announced that he and first lady Melania Trump had both contracted the virus -- followed his assistance to Trump preparing for the first presidential debate in a series of sessions where no one wore masks.

On "Good Morning America" Friday, Christie said he made "a big mistake" by letting his guard down on the White House grounds, "and it cost me in a significant way."
"I was led to believe that all the people I was interacting with had been tested and it gave you a false sense of security," he said.
Asked if the White House has learned the same lessons, Christie said, "I think we should be even more affirmative" with telling others to wear masks.
"Leaders, all across the politics, sports, the media, should be saying to people, put your masks on and be safe until we get a vaccine that could help to protect us," he said.

[msquared]

Pfizer's vaccine looks like it might be a winner. Pence claims that it was due to Operation Warp Speed.

but it was not. Pfizer never took Government money for research.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pfizers-head-vaccine-development-notes-145930453.html

 

[DonaldD]

Aside from the cool name ("Warp Speed!!") is there really any realistic suggestion that another administration would have done anything significantly different, and would not have aggressively funded vaccine research?

I keep hearing the Trump admin boasting how it has done so much against the pandemic because... vaccine research(!!) but it always comes off sounding as extremely weak sauce, especially considering how they basically facilitated the spread of the virus throughout the country.

[DonaldD]

36,000 more new daily cases today than last Monday - or a week over week increase of 40%.     This coming Friday will likely show about 170K new daily cases, and next week might just blow through 200,000.

[TheDrake]

The Texas Department of State Health Services reported that nearly 20% of all hospital beds in Amarillo and Lubbock were filled by COVID-19 patients, triggering restrictions and closures.

But COVID-19-related hospitalizations in El Paso have spiked from 178 at the beginning of October to 853 in three weeks. And the total of 1,443 new cases barrels past the record broken on Thursday with 1,161 cases reported.

The El Paso Convention and Performing Arts Center is being equipped with 50 hospital beds and room for 50 more to handle the overflow of patients.

Gov. Greg Abbott said in a statement the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is sending to El Paso two 35-person disaster medical assistance teams and a trauma critical care team.

Let er rip! That was two weeks ago.

[TheDrake]

At least three people who attended an election party at the White House last week, including the housing secretary and President Trump’s chief of staff, have tested positive for the coronavirus. Several hundred people gathered at the event in the East Room for several hours, many of them not wearing masks as they mingled and watched election returns.

[TheDrake]

North Dakota.

Cases   55,463   1,153  +69%
Deaths   649                 5   +96%
Hospitalized             383   +45%

Due to a major shortage of health care staffing, the state's hospitals have a severe lack of available beds. Rising COVID-19 hospitalizations and high noncoronavirus admissions, some resulting from residents who deferred health care earlier in the pandemic, have caused the crunch on medical centers.

Burgum said hospitals are implementing their "surge" plans, and some will be voluntarily stopping elective surgeries to free up staff. He added that the state will coordinate with hospitals to move nurses to medical centers in most dire need of staff.

In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that interim State Health Officer Dirk Wilke has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in COVID-19 units at hospitals and nursing homes.

[msquared]

Drake

Is some info missing or is it a formatting issue, but I am not sure how we are supposed to see those numbers.

[TheDrake]

Yeah, sorry about that, the headers aren't in there. The percentages are the 14 day change, right hand is current daily rate. Left hand is the cumulative total.

[TheDeamon]

Well I've had a 77 YO Aunt test positive for covid19, she's been asymptomatic for the the 3.5 weeks since.

Also have a nephew and his wife test positive for Covid19, only mild symptoms for them. So looks like the genetic lottery may be playing in the favor of my family, but would rather not test that too strenuously.

[TheDrake]

Well I've had a 77 YO Aunt test positive for covid19, she's been asymptomatic for the the 3.5 weeks since.

Also have a nephew and his wife test positive for Covid19, only mild symptoms for them. So looks like the genetic lottery may be playing in the favor of my family, but would rather not test that too strenuously.

Glad everything is working out for them!

[DonaldD]

Let er rip! That was two weeks ago.

Texas just became the first state to break through the 1,000,000 case threshold.

[Grant]

author=DonaldD link=topic=869.msg48794#msg48794 date=1605086491]
Texas just became the first state to break through the 1,000,000 case threshold.

Congratulations, Texas.  Everything is bigger there. 

But watch out, California and Florida are hot on your heels. 

But I would also like to congratulate the Texas healthcare system.  Despite having almost double the number of cases, the Lone Start state still has only 57% of the total number of deaths of the Empire State.  So credit to Gov Abbot, who managed to stretch his numbers out over 8 months instead of getting them all at the same time like some other governors I will not mention here. 

[msquared]

That may not be a fair comparison. NYC was the first city to have a blow up and they had almost no time to prepare for the crush of patients. Texas has had 7-8 months to ramp up.

[DonaldD]

I wasn't going to bite, but... New York was also the destination of choice for Europe business travel - the city is the financial capital of the country, if not the world, and it saw infections quickly rage through the populace in ways not at all comparable to Dallas or Houston in March (or even now for that matter).

Texas (and all other states) have at least seen the effects of widespread infections in a community, and specifically the effects on the elderly.  Even in communities where virus fatigue and resistance are highest, the elderly are now being protected, and were being protected, prior to the major surges we are seeing now.

[DonaldD]

The real story now is the Dakotas, though: With North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity, Burgum announces COVID-positive nurses can stay at work

In an attempt to alleviate some of the staffing concerns, Burgum announced that the state health officer has amended an order that will allow health care workers with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to continue working in hospitals' COVID-19 units. The Republican governor said hospital administrators asked the state to take the extraordinary step.

Even with 8 months to prepare, North Dakota's hospital are full, and are so short staffed that nurses who are infected are being, not just allowed, but asked to continue working if they are asymptomatic.

[TheDrake]

Let er rip! That was two weeks ago.

Texas just became the first state to break through the 1,000,000 case threshold.

People here like to call that the Freedom Index.

[msquared]

And we broke 240,000 dead today.  76 days after we hit 180,000. So 76 days for 60,000 dead.  Almost 790 per day.

I wonder if Trump is happy we beat this virus with only 100,000 dead?  Oh wait, maybe he said 200,000 dead? Has he mentioned 300,000 dead yet?

but it is going to go away, like a miracle.  Maybe once the vaccine gets wide spread distribution in 4-6 months.

[TheDrake]

Is that the smell of freedom or cremation?

Idaho hospitals large and small, hours away from each other, have the same problem: They’re running out of space for patients as COVID-19 tears through their communities.

The virus is filling up hundreds of beds and taking out doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists and other health care workers. As cases surge in Idaho, health care leaders plead with residents and officials to stop the inertia before the COVID-19 wave overwhelms the health care system.

There is little time left for Idahoans to change their behaviors, or for government leaders to implement stricter COVID-19 prevention measures, they said.

“We’ve all prepared and talked about the what-ifs. And the what-if, it’s here today,” said Tom Murphy, CEO of Minidoka Memorial Hospital in the small agricultural town of Rupert.

“We’ve been unsuccessful at getting mandates, whether that be from the state level, the city level or the health district level,” he said. “If nobody’s willing to do that, where does that leave the trigger point for a change in behavior? Is it when I put a sign out that you’ll be triaged before you even enter the facility, and you may be turned away and not treated?”

Could this be related?

The video shows Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin (R) sitting in the driver’s seat of a pickup truck, a Bible in her hand, as she rails against the coronavirus restrictions carried out in the state she helps lead.

“We recognize that all of us are by nature, free and equal, and have certain inalienable rights,” she says, grabbing a gun and placing it on top of the Bible with a wide smile on her face. “Among which are enjoying and defending life and liberty, acquiring, possessing and protecting property and pursuing happiness and securing safety."

The video, released earlier this week by a libertarian group called the Idaho Freedom Foundation, claims that Gov. Brad Little (R) infringed liberties to battle a pandemic that “may or may not be occurring."

May or may not be occurring? 

What is one of the articles by the IFF?

“There is no question that this country has faced and will face, emergencies of every sort,” Stickman wrote. “But the solution to a national crisis can never be permitted to supersede the commitment to individual liberty that stands as the foundation of the American experiment.”

I share the judge’s sentiments. Parents, not the governor, mayors, public health boards, nor state medical “experts” should decide if Idaho children enjoy traditional Halloween activities this year.

So parents, stand up, take charge, and dress up your goblins, ghouls and princesses if you wish. Otherwise, prepare to be haunted beyond Halloween by a government that believes it can make your decisions for you. And that’s no treat.

So Grandma dies to preserve her grandson's inalienable right to get a fun size almond joy.

[TheDeamon]

Is that the smell of freedom or cremation?

Idaho hospitals large and small, hours away from each other, have the same problem: They’re running out of space for patients as COVID-19 tears through their communities.

The virus is filling up hundreds of beds and taking out doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists and other health care workers. As cases surge in Idaho, health care leaders plead with residents and officials to stop the inertia before the COVID-19 wave overwhelms the health care system.

There is little time left for Idahoans to change their behaviors, or for government leaders to implement stricter COVID-19 prevention measures, they said.

“We’ve all prepared and talked about the what-ifs. And the what-if, it’s here today,” said Tom Murphy, CEO of Minidoka Memorial Hospital in the small agricultural town of Rupert.

“We’ve been unsuccessful at getting mandates, whether that be from the state level, the city level or the health district level,” he said. “If nobody’s willing to do that, where does that leave the trigger point for a change in behavior? Is it when I put a sign out that you’ll be triaged before you even enter the facility, and you may be turned away and not treated?”

Stricter measures were implemented 2 weeks ago when Idaho reverted back to stage 3, these things take time to work through the system?

[TheDrake]

Stage 3 can't begin to handle that level of emergency. It leaves bars and restaurants open, for starters. Indoor gatherings allowed for up to 50 people.

[TheDrake]

And now a fifth personal friend infected. Two of them just lost taste one week into the ordeal.

[msquared]

2,000 dead yesterday. We may hit the 300,000 faster than I thought.  And I thought Trump said it would go away like a miracle after the election.

[TheDrake]

I thought we were going to stop talking about covid, covid, covid once the election was over and the hoax was over?

For those keeping score at home, we are averaging 80 TONS of dead people every day. In case you were wondering, about 7700 people die daily from all causes combined.

[TheDrake]

As the US battles unrelenting Covid-19 outbreaks across the country, Republican Senator Rand Paul has told Americans who have recovered from the illness to "celebrate".

"We should tell them to throw away their masks, go to restaurants, live again, because these people are now immune," the Kentucky senator said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday.

The comments from Paul - who tested positive for the virus in March - contradicts health guidance from experts who say there is no evidence that recovered patients are immune, and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

Yeah, I see that working out well. Like the number of people who claim their pet is a "service animal". Every jackass who wants to run around and party just gets to say "already had the covid, pardon me"

[DonaldD]

36,000 more new daily cases today than last Monday - or a week over week increase of 40%.     This coming Friday will likely show about 170K new daily cases, and next week might just blow through 200,000.

Did I say 170,000?  I meant 184,000.

The country might have herd immunity by the time Biden takes office.

[msquared]

Trump for the win.

[DonaldD]

So, what are the plans for Thanksgiving - anecdotally, are people talking about hunkering down and avoiding having family or friendly gatherings?  What about limiting gatherings to the out-of-doors, with physical distancing?

[yossarian22c]

So, what are the plans for Thanksgiving - anecdotally, are people talking about hunkering down and avoiding having family or friendly gatherings?  What about limiting gatherings to the out-of-doors, with physical distancing?

I'll probably take my kids to see their grandparents. But we're all schooling and working from home so we're pretty low risk. But the grand total at the gathering will be 5. My sister won't be bringing her family in from out of town and I won't be visiting my grandparents.

[DonaldD]

Yesterday saw the 3rd highest daily new-case count of the pandemic, only exceeded by the previous two days.

The 7-day average has now more than doubled the new case count peak in July.  It has also doubled in just 18 days - the previous doubling took 46 days (from about September 13 to October 27).  Given that there is little evidence that the past couple of weeks have shown much in the way of significant changes to local responses attempting to limit spread of the virus, we'll probably see the 7-day average exceed 250,00 daily new cases in the next 2 weeks, and at least one day above 300,000 new cases.

[DonaldD]

Oh, and daily deaths - the 7-day average has just about matched the early August peak.  Within the next few days, the death rate will only have been exceeded during the April/May peak when nursing and care homes were being destroyed by the virus.

[cherrypoptart]

I don't know how much of a role opening schools played in this massive spike of new infections but I pretty much knew there was no way to do that safely. I'm seeing a lot of children walking around the supermarket without masks too. Most of them wear masks but too many of them don't. These aren't babies in strollers either but children walking and talking. Sure kids are innocent and generally harmless but they can spread the virus just like anyone else; maybe even more so. Don't let those innocent little baby faces fool you. Opening schools was the same thing as saying darn the torpedoes, full herd immunity ahead. Now nobody doubts that in person education is a great thing and the children as well as the parents were suffering because of the lack of it, but this result was entirely predictable.

[DonaldD]

I doubt it's just the one variable - but yes, I expect school openings greased the wheels, as well.  But we cannot discount the cooler weather bringing people into closer contact, and the general relaxation of self discipline.  There has always been a hard-core group that opposed any and all hygienic measures, but my guess is that those outside that population are now also backsliding, both from a personal hygiene perspective as well as a number-of-contacts perspective (COVID exhaustion) at the same time as schools were opening and people are migrating indoors for longer periods of time.  That and COVID messaging awareness has fallen through the basement as election news has sucked up all the media oxygen, so even those messages about COVID concerns that do get published are being overwhelmed by the mass of election drama.

[yossarian22c]

Also as the cases were ramping up in October very few politicians wanted to be announcing new restrictions or a return to a previous phase of restrictions. I'm hoping we'll start to see bars and restaurants shut down again. Likely means Churches and schools need some shut downs as well. Holidays are going to be rough. Action now might make Christmas/New Years more safe. But with the general hardship that covid restrictions bring and how polarized Trump has made it I doubt the USA can put together a cohesive strategy will bend the curve downwards again. I think we're in for a bunch of deaths and a really bad winter.

The vaccine won't be widespread before spring. Assuming FDA approval goes smoothly the first doses would be going out to high risk people beginning of the year. This is an issue where a cooperative transition would be useful. It would be nice if Biden and his people were in on the vaccine approval and distribution process so there are no delays or hiccups when the transition happens.

My thoughts and prayers go out to the hospital workers and first responders who have to live this everyday. Good luck getting through the winter.

[DonaldD]

Scott Atlas, neuroradiologist, COVID-19 'advisor' to the president and, apparently, revolutionary, calls on Michiganders to rebel against their state government.

Scott W. Atlas
_{@SWAtlasHoover}

The only way this stops is if people rise up. You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp

philip lewis
_{@Phil_Lewis_ · 3h}

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has announced an epidemic order for 3 weeks, starting this Wednesday.

In-person learning for high schools and colleges are halted. Indoor dining, theaters, stadiums, organized sports (except pros) are no longer open.

Nothing like working with the local governments who your president claims are responsible for dealing with the pandemic.

(Remember - he is not responsible - he said it himself: "the buck stops somewhere over there - any where but with me.")

[DonaldD]

FFS.

Thanksgiving is likely to be hitting peak daily new infection numbers, state level restrictions (if even being respected whatsoever) will only just have been implemented, but 38 percent of Americans are planning on having Thanksgiving dinner with 10 or more people.

BY KAELAN DEESE - 11/14/20 05:48 PM EST

About 40 percent of U.S. residents say they plan to gather in groups of 10 or more people this holiday season, according to a recent survey from Ohio State University (OSU) Wexner Medical Center.

Nearly 33 percent of respondents said they would not require friends or family to wear masks at Thanksgiving gatherings, and 25 percent said they would not practice social distancing, according to the poll.

The survey comes just before Thanksgiving and amid an alarming surge of coronavirus cases across the United States.

I just can't.

Of course, the survey also suggested that the majority (~80%) would limit their interactions to people living in the same household, but given that upwards of 20% of the population do not live in households of more than 10 people, I expect there is more than a little self-delusion going on:

Though a considerable percentage of respondents said they would flout safety recommendations for Thanksgiving dinner, a majority 73 percent of respondents said they would practice social distancing during the holidays. Additionally, 79 percent said they would only gather with people with whom they live.

I can't help but wonder whether the people who are loudest in decrying the economic fallout from restrictions are not also those most willing to spread the virus by flouting basic infection controls like mask wearing, physical distancing, limiting personal interactions and avoiding group gatherings... The USA, once again inviting the rest of the world to close their borders.

[msquared]

Another vaccine at about 94% effective rate (Moderna) announced today.  It seems like in a few months we will have several good options for a vaccine, but will the Trump supporters take it?

[yossarian22c]

Another vaccine at about 94% effective rate (Moderna) announced today.  It seems like in a few months we will have several good options for a vaccine, but will the Trump supporters take it?

Even better news is this one doesn't require ultra cold distribution. Just regular refrigeration. Meaning that it can be distributed through the standard process of doctors offices, clinics, and pharmacies. The first vaccine required storage of well below freezing which makes shipment and distribution sites a challenge. I'm hopeful both will be approved. The more vaccines approved the faster a critical mass can be vaccinated and line can begin to return more to normal.

[rightleft22]

Another vaccine at about 94% effective rate (Moderna) announced today.  It seems like in a few months we will have several good options for a vaccine, but will the Trump supporters take it?

Taking the vaccine will likely be a issue for many on the right and left if for different reasons.   

[msquared]

How many Trump people will walk around with no mask telling everyone they got the vaccine and are safe now? Maybe you need to get a vaccine card?

[Fenring]

I can't help but wonder whether the people who are loudest in decrying the economic fallout from restrictions are not also those most willing to spread the virus by flouting basic infection controls like mask wearing, physical distancing, limiting personal interactions and avoiding group gatherings... The USA, once again inviting the rest of the world to close their borders.

It's all part of the modern plague of Americans equating "freedom" with refusing to comply with any direction. "Don't tell me what to do!" is the new version of the unyoking of government tyranny, and it applies in the personal/social sphere just as much as the political one.

[msquared]

And to me that is Trump's largest failure. To not lead the people to doing something against their wishes. In fact leading them away from science on this. Actively opposing it.

[rightleft22]

Most people don't define terms like 'freedom' before they use them, similar I think as such concepts of love, forgiveness.... Instead we assume we know what we mean when we use those words and assume that others hearing those words know what we mean.

Its a lot of assuming. and as the saying go's we are more likely to make a ass of you and me when we do so.   

As a dog whistle the crying out for 'FREEDOM' is quite effective. When used in such a manner you usually don't have to look very deep to find that someone is attempting to create boundaries/laws to limit a some groups rights, often even those who will be doing the fighting and dying to this 'FREEDOM' only they will never see it that way until its to late.

[Fenring]

And to me that is Trump's largest failure. To not lead the people to doing something against their wishes. In fact leading them away from science on this. Actively opposing it.

Well you can blame him if you like, but I think a combination of partisan politics, echo chamber media, and social media, all push people to hugely believe that anything they feel like is that they should get, immediately. The idea of contrary views having to be respected, or of having to submit oneself to any kind of higher authority that says things you don't already believe, is foreign to the American psyche right now. Maybe Trump didn't help; maybe he's even a symptom of the problem - maybe even a notable symptom; be he is not himself the problem.

[rightleft22]

And to me that is Trump's largest failure. To not lead the people to doing something against their wishes. In fact leading them away from science on this. Actively opposing it.

Well you can blame him if you like, but I think a combination of partisan politics, echo chamber media, and social media, all push people to hugely believe that anything they feel like is that they should get, immediately. The idea of contrary views having to be respected, or of having to submit oneself to any kind of higher authority that says things you don't already believe, is foreign to the American psyche right now. Maybe Trump didn't help; maybe he's even a symptom of the problem - maybe even a notable symptom; be he is not himself the problem.

I agree he is not to blame for the problem which existed before he became a politician. I took msquared point to be that Trump is accountable for how he manipulated the issue towards his own end and made it worse. 

If we agree this current environment where a large percentage of people "believe that anything they feel like is that they should get, immediately. The idea of contrary views having to be respected, or of having to submit oneself to any kind of higher authority that says things you don't already believe" - is a problem. We need a leader that will work to finding a way to solve it not exasperate it.

Trump may not be to blame for the origin of the problem but he's the guy in charge.  By not holding men like Trump accountable for how the deal with such problems then they and we become the problem.

[msquared]

I agree he did not cause the virus. But he is responsible for his own downplaying of the severity of the virus, his lack of preparation for what he really knew early on was going to be a pandemic, and his refusal to set an example by wearing a mask and selling using a mask as a patriotic duty.  His followers would wear a mask if he told them to. If he told them it was the main way to keep the economy open and running.  if he put it as a selfless sacrifice on par to what previous generations have done to help one another.  If had appealed to the basic goodness of people.

Would all of them have followed?  Of course not.  But do you think a good portion of them would have, Hell yes.  We could be heading into winter with a much lower infection rate with at least 2 vaccines due on the horizon.  Less than one year of sacrifice, and we would have made it through with less than 400,000 dead (which is where I think we are going to be, easily, by the end of Feb. 2021).