coronavirus

[DonaldD]

And... for the first time ever - more than 300,000 new cases reported in a single day.

[yossarian22c]

Several Republican members of Congress refused to wear masks while sheltering with others Wednesday. Video shot from inside one room shows Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, D-Del., offering blue surgical masks to six Republican lawmakers. They all declined. It's unclear if those unmasked Republicans were in the same room as the one referenced by the attending physician.

Wow. Sheltering in place with someone and refusing a mask. Too bad they couldn't shove them back out the doors to spend time with their mob.

[msquared]

Well my wife tested positive this morning (test was Friday).  Not surprising really. 

My oldest son tested positive a few days after I did (we have not seen him in person since Oct, so this was independent of me getting it). My youngest son gets his first vaccine shot today and my mom got hers last week (in the Cayman Island so part of British socialized medicine.

[TheDrake]

A third US lawmaker has tested positive for Covid-19 after being involved in the emergency lockdown at the US Capitol last week.

Congressman Brad Schneider, from Illinois, confirmed in a Tuesday statement he had tested positive - just one day after telling US network MSNBC he was "very concerned" about possible exposure after being stuck in a room with a number of Republican officials who refused to wear masks.

"Today, I am now in strict isolation, worried I have risked my wife's health and angry at the selfishness and arrogance of the anti-maskers who put their own contempt and disregard for decency ahead of the health and safety of their colleagues and our staff," his statement said, before calling on punishments for lawmakers ignoring safety protocols.

"Those that flout public health guidance should be sanctioned and immediately removed from the House floor by the Sergeant at Arms for their reckless endangerment of their colleagues."

[TheDrake]

4400 deaths in the US yesterday. That's up 49% from two weeks ago, and in case you'd like to do the math, if it stayed on that pace it would be 1.6 million in 365 days. There's ample reason to believe it won't stay on that trajectory for an entire year, particularly as vaccine gets distributed, but wow.

[yossarian22c]

Current 7 day moving average is sitting around 245k/day. We had a big spike in the daily numbers a week after new years and a small decline after. With 4k+ deaths per day right now probably as a result of the 180k/day numbers in late December we should expect to see 5.5k deaths per day by the end of January. I think we'll see as least 80k people die just between now and the end of January. And that's assuming you don't see more places get as overrun as California is now.

[DonaldD]

Some time tomorrow, the USA will see its 400,000th COVID-19 death.

I remember when some people here were mocking the models for projecting 60,000 deaths - granted, that was by the end of the summer.

[DonaldD]

BUT.... since you brought it up.   The POTENTIAL of a large meteor ending all life on earth this year is actually much lower than the POTENTIAL of 400,000 people in the US dying from COVID 19 this year.  That would be a whole lot more than the 32,000 that died from the flu last year.

That was... suspiciously accurate, 10.5 months in advance, and considering the expert was claiming that "it was going to be down to almost zero within a couple of weeks".

[TheDrake]

The 1918 Spanish Flu had 675,000 deaths, and that was without all the modern interventions we have available today. For scale.

[Lloyd Perna]

The 1918 Spanish Flu had 675,000 deaths, and that was without all the modern interventions we have available today. For scale.

Don't forget the US population in 1918 was about 1/3 of todays.  So not only is that number much larger proportionally, but the sparser population and lack of easy long distance travel must have made spreading harder.

[msquared]

2 million dead world wide.  In less than a year.  But it is no worse then the flu.

[TheDrake]

2 million dead world wide.  In less than a year.  But it is no worse then the flu.

Yeah, but they never said which flu.

[fizz]

About long term consequences, and the statistics likely quite under-reporting casualties:
Almost a third of recovered Covid patients return to hospital in five months and one in eight die

[msquared]

We will pass 400,000 deaths today.  Almost exactly 1 year after the first case was diagnosed in the US.

[DonaldD]

Interestingly, and I would suggest, not surprisingly, influenza season in Canada is almost non-existent: FluWatch report: January 3, 2021 to January 9, 2021 (week 1).

It looks like shutdowns, social distancing and masking/hygiene efforts have basically crushed influenza spread this year, although COVID-19 spread through the community is still serious in Canada.

[yossarian22c]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/21/958953434/reinfections-more-likely-with-new-coronavirus-variants-evidence-suggests

Back in April, COVID-19 hit the city of Manaus, Brazil, extremely hard. In fact, the outbreak there was arguably the worst anywhere in the world.
...
Now the city of Manaus is seeing another massive surge in cases. This time around, the outbreak appears even larger than the first one
...
In many ways, this resurgence in Manaus doesn't seem to make sense because such a large proportion of the population was infected just last spring. In theory, these earlier patients should now be immune to the coronavirus. So why is the city seeing such a huge surge?

The answer could lie in a newly discovered variant.
...
Last week, scientists in Brazil detected a new genetic variant of coronavirus that has been circulating in Manaus since at least December and is likely fueling the second surge. Called P1, the variant has a set of about 20 mutations, including three mutations that are particularly concerning. These mutations could make the virus more infectious and could possibly decrease the efficacy of vaccines against the variant.

Scary stuff.

[LetterRip]

Reinfection risk depends on the particular protein the immune system picked to create antibodies to.  If it picked the spike protein that is fairly invariant between covid-19 species, but other proteins that can evolve more easily are often targeted.  So the vaccine will likely be effective against variants but prior exposure wont necessarily be.

[yossarian22c]

Reinfection risk depends on the particular protein the immune system picked to create antibodies to.  If it picked the spike protein that is fairly invariant between covid-19 species, but other proteins that can evolve more easily are often targeted.  So the vaccine will likely be effective against variants but prior exposure wont necessarily be.

Thanks for the info. Still scary that this virus seems to be able to mutate into something more easily transmissible. We have South Africa, Brazil, and the UK versions running around. The virus was already easy to spread.

Here's hoping Biden can help move the country towards those 100 million (hopefully more) vaccinations in 100 days.

[msquared]

Well it looks like Trump and his team had no real plan for the vaccine or the roll out.  Trump did not care about people enough to plan ahead.  His behavior during the pandemic will most  likely be his lasting characteristic.  He could have done so much more and he actively worked against slowing the virus.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/worse-imagined-team-trump-left-100021175.html

[yossarian22c]

Well it looks like Trump and his team had no real plan for the vaccine or the roll out.  Trump did not care about people enough to plan ahead.  His behavior during the pandemic will most  likely be his lasting characteristic.  He could have done so much more and he actively worked against slowing the virus.

Every time I saw an interview of the general Trump had in charge of the vaccine roll out I got the impression he thought you could ship the vaccine to states and order people to line up and take it like soldiers. The plan seemed to stop at shipping logistics and the rest was up to states and local health departments.

[Grant]

Well it looks like Trump and his team had no real plan for the vaccine or the roll out.  Trump did not care about people enough to plan ahead.  His behavior during the pandemic will most  likely be his lasting characteristic.  He could have done so much more and he actively worked against slowing the virus.

Well, from reading the article it appears there was a plan, it just wasn't a good one, or what everyone could hope for. 

1.  The "plan" was mostly about distribution to the states. From there, the states were supposed to distribute to people.  Of course that is punting on half the logistics problem.  But this wasn't a secret.  The states could have had better plans as well, and as far as I understand, the major issue right now is supply, but it's hard to tell. 

2.  The use of the military to handle logistics distribution is at odds with other things I have seen where logistics was just being handled by UPS and Fedex.  The use of a military logistics computer system that state users were unfamiliar with was of course going to be a problem.  The military probably could have been used to distribute completely rather than just the ordering and tracking system.  Of course tracking is going to be a problem because there doesn't seem to be any single individual in charge of the ENTIRE process, with visibility over everything. 

That seems to be the major problem at this point.  There is no visibility for the Biden admin.  This is understandable since it was day 1.  It's going to take some time. 

The important takeaway for me from this is that the Trump admin didn't coordinate with the Biden admin to help with visibility and handing off responsibility. 

I don't think it really has anything to do with Trump not caring about people.  It's more a lack of understanding and responsibility.  The Trump admin liked to punt on coronavirus. 

As to it being his defining characteristic, I'm dubious.  He has so many defining characteristics.  Personally, I think being an inveterate and exceptional liar is his most defining characteristic. 

[msquared]

Grant,

I will grant you many of your comments (see what I did there?).  I guess what I am saying is that his true legacy will be the blood of hundreds of thousands of US Citizens.  He could not have stopped many of the deaths (the virus was going to happen and people were going to die) but I hold him responsible for his downplaying the virus and opposing actions that would have slowed the virus's spread across the nation.

[Grant]

Grant,

I will grant you many of your comments (see what I did there?).  I guess what I am saying is that his true legacy will be the blood of hundreds of thousands of US Citizens.  He could not have stopped many of the deaths (the virus was going to happen and people were going to die) but I hold him responsible for his downplaying the virus and opposing actions that would have slowed the virus's spread across the nation.

Sure.  I agree with all of that except that it's hard to tell exactly how bad the death toll of the virus would have been if, say, Clinton had been President. 

50% of Trump?  25%?  Or is that ridiculous? 
 
I mean, that's a whole bunch non productive people that could have been saved.  But there is no telling and it's hard to calculate.  Some people would still have thought it was a conspiracy if Clinton were President.  Some people still would not have worn masks or raged against shutdowns.  The level of disinformation would have probably been the same.  It just would not have had such a high ranking echo.   

I still think his greatest legacy will have been furthering conspiracy theories regarding his election loss to the point that he created a mob that he then set loose on the Capitol.  So many people actually have fallen prey to this bs that it's astounding and disheartening.  The Republican party has been kneecapped and conservatism in general will be hobbled for a generation.  You're probably going to see one party rule much the same way the Republicans ruled after the Civil War, and for much the same reasons.  One side became delusional and ended up attacking the government. 

It's just hard for me to nail down just how many deaths Donald Trump is responsible for.  I'm still a maximum personal responsibility person.  If people did stupid things because the President said stupid things then it's partially on them as well. 

[rightleft22]

I guess what I am saying is that his true legacy will be the blood of hundreds of thousands of US Citizens

With regards to Covid I suspect Trumps legacy will be viewed as a failure of leadership. Due to his limited ability to show empathy and speak in ways that didn't make things all about him, he failed to be seen as presidential without really having to do a whole lot.  It was a huge missed opportunity.

Like Grant I suspect Trump lasting legacy will be his furthering of conspiracy theories and not just deepening division but encouraging it.

[TheDeamon]

Reinfection risk depends on the particular protein the immune system picked to create antibodies to.  If it picked the spike protein that is fairly invariant between covid-19 species, but other proteins that can evolve more easily are often targeted.  So the vaccine will likely be effective against variants but prior exposure wont necessarily be.

Thanks for the info. Still scary that this virus seems to be able to mutate into something more easily transmissible. We have South Africa, Brazil, and the UK versions running around. The virus was already easy to spread.

Here's hoping Biden can help move the country towards those 100 million (hopefully more) vaccinations in 100 days.

Ineffective and incomplete quarantine practices was going to tend to naturally select in favor of versions of the virus which had better "Staying power"/infectiousness. The only hope in that regard was that the new strains would be less deadly.

[TheDeamon]

I still think his greatest legacy will have been furthering conspiracy theories regarding his election loss to the point that he created a mob that he then set loose on the Capitol.  So many people actually have fallen prey to this bs that it's astounding and disheartening.  The Republican party has been kneecapped and conservatism in general will be hobbled for a generation.  You're probably going to see one party rule much the same way the Republicans ruled after the Civil War, and for much the same reasons.  One side became delusional and ended up attacking the government.

I highly doubt the conservatives will be out of action for very long. The thought leaders for the Democrats don't understand over half of the population of people who voted. Remember by CNN's own exit polling, nearly a third of the people who voted Biden weren't voting for him, they voted against Trump. Another significant portion voted Biden out of fear of Covid. Remove those two issues and Biden's 80 million voter mandate crumbles against Trump's support base very quickly.

They don't understand, and they're not interested in reconciling with "Trump voters." They're going to be on the receiving end of some truly massive political blowback in 2022 and 2024 almost regardless of what they do.

And if they try to retroactively criminalize having been a MAGA, it's only going to be worse for the Democrats.

[cherrypoptart]

It seems now that Trump is out it's time to reopen for business regardless of the fact that the Covid-19 situation is worse than ever.

https://apnews.com/article/sacramento-california-coronavirus-pandemic-gavin-newsom-38bb44ea7cb39eab9f6f6c621daeaf10

"At the start of last week, no regions appeared unlikely to have the stay-at-home order lifted soon because their capacity was well below 15%. But within a day, the state announced it was lifting the order for the 13-county Greater Sacramento area.

Suddenly, outdoor dining and worship services were OK again, hair and nail salons and other businesses could reopen, and retailers could have more shoppers inside.

Local officials and businesses were caught off guard. State officials did not describe their reasoning other than to say it was based on a projection for ICU capacity.

“It was a good surprise, but we just didn’t see it coming,” California Restaurant Association president and CEO Jot Condie said. “We just don’t know what happens behind the curtain. It’s created logistical difficulties for the industry,” which scrambled to rehire staff and order food.

State health officials relied on a complex formula to project that while the region’s intensive care capacity was below 10%, it would climb above 15% within four weeks. On Thursday, it was 8%, roughly the same as when the order was lifted.

“What happened to the 15%? What was that all about?” asked Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious-diseases control expert at University of California, San Francisco. “I was surprised. I assume they know something I don’t know.”

State officials projected future capacity using a combination of models.

“At the moment the projections are not being shared publicly,” Department of Public Health spokeswoman Ali Bay said in an email."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-lightfoot-wants-restaurants-open-pritzker-20210114-mh6chxizsfgnbkwkypf6iyk6mi-story.html

"Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said Thursday she wants the city’s bars and restaurants to reopen for indoor service “as soon as possible” and plans to discuss the issue with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, despite the fact that the city hasn’t met the state’s requirements for lifting the restrictions.

“I am very, very focused on getting our restaurants reopened. If we look at the various criteria that the state has set, we are meeting most if not all of those. So that’s a conversation that I will have with the governor,” Lightfoot said at a news conference about the city’s COVID-19 vaccine distribution sites. “But I want to get our restaurants and our bars reopened as quickly as possible.”

In fact, the city has not yet reached the metrics set by Pritzker’s administration.

On Thursday, Chicago’s test positivity stood at 10%, according to city statistics. Under the current pandemic rules, the city would have to have a positivity rate of 6.5% or less for three straight days in order for restaurants and bars to reopen."

----------------------------------------------------------------------

So it's starting to look like a large part of shutting down the economy was political after all. Or maybe the timing is just a coincidence.

[LetterRip]

Or they are planning to open based on vaccinations...  If it were based on Trump they could have done so immediately after the election.

[Grant]

I highly doubt the conservatives will be out of action for very long. The thought leaders for the Democrats don't understand over half of the population of people who voted. Remember by CNN's own exit polling, nearly a third of the people who voted Biden weren't voting for him, they voted against Trump. Another significant portion voted Biden out of fear of Covid. Remove those two issues and Biden's 80 million voter mandate crumbles against Trump's support base very quickly.

First, this depends greatly on the role L'Orange plays over the next four years.  If he runs again in 2024 or just pops his head out of a hole every now and then to just be himself and if Republicans keep kissing up to his "support base" of wackos and insurrectionists, then the same people who voted against him this time will continue to do so.  Hawley and Cruz have already shot themselves in the foot trying to take on the mantle of MAGA. 

Secondly, Trump's support base already wasn't large enough to win.  Many of that support base will simply melt away or vote Bernie or whatever.  You can count on them to do the craziest thing possible.  As you mentioned in another thread, they were never conservatives or Republicans to begin with.  Unless Trump comes back or there is an annointed successor to MAGA, they have no chance to rebuild that coalition.  And if they do, they'll lose again because that support base has already crumbled.  Trump left office with the lowest approval rating he ever had.  Only Nixon had worst numbers when he resigned.  Once he lost and it was final and the bs was finally exposed MAGA imploded.  Plus he'll always be remembered for sending a mob to the Capitol.  The Trump base is finished.  Some people are trying to keep it alive but it won't work.

They don't understand, and they're not interested in reconciling with "Trump voters." They're going to be on the receiving end of some truly massive political blowback in 2022 and 2024 almost regardless of what they do.

Nobody needs or is interested in reconciling with "Trump voters".  It's up to Trump voters to try their best to reconcile with whatever party they choose to try to get back into or form their own "Patriot Party". 

The future of the Republican party depends entirely on just how crazy the Democrats are able to act now that they have near complete power to legislate.  You're right that most voters still do not buy into progressive politics.  But Biden isn't exactly the most progressive of politicians.  So far no stacking courts.  No wild damage to institutions.  All they have to do is get the vaccines out to people and help bring the economy back. 

And if they try to retroactively criminalize having been a MAGA, it's only going to be worse for the Democrats.

I don't know how you criminalize just being MAGA, but the MAGAs involved in Jan 6th are being hunted down.  Personally, I support them all being hung or shot by firing squad, but so far it seems nobody is being charged with treason.  They're basically all being charged with trespassing.  They're getting off light. 

[Grant]

Or they are planning to open based on vaccinations...  If it were based on Trump they could have done so immediately after the election.

It's not a good look and I doubt that any of these areas have vaccinated enough people to warrant full re-openings.  I suspect they may end up getting their hands slapped by Federal. 

[msquared]

Well we probably broke it yesterday.  420,000 dead.  19 days for 60,000 dead.  Over 3,000/day. The number of days for each 60,000 is still going down (not a good thing) and the average number of  dead per day is still going up (it was 2,700/day on Jan 7).  The rate of increase seems to be slowing a bit.

[cherrypoptart]

I still think Trump was wrong about masks and should have been more vocal about supporting their use much earlier and though I do think it would have made some difference the way things are looking right now after months and months of everyone including Trump being onboard with masking and many states wisely going for widespread mandatory masking it doesn't seem like it's really having as much of a positive impact as I'd hoped it would.

[Aris Katsaris]

Only Nixon had worst numbers when he resigned.  Once he lost and it was final and the bs was finally exposed MAGA imploded.  Plus he'll always be remembered for sending a mob to the Capitol.  The Trump base is finished.  Some people are trying to keep it alive but it won't work.

We'll see. To me that claim looks like saying that Hitler would be finished after his failed Putsch, when in reality the mere slap on the wrist he suffered for it meant he only came back stronger.

Trump is currently keeping his head down until the 2nd impeachment passes. The moment he's acquitted, he'll renew his attack on American democracy tenfold, all the more so as he'll present it as a personal vindication and a claim that he did nothing wrong, and how the fault supposedly lies with the Democrats. And all his cultist followers will willingly dance to his drum once again.

[msquared]

Anti Vax protesters shut down the max vaccination site at Disney in CA today. 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/dodger-stadium-covid-19-vaccinations-shut-down-protesters-012430216.html

Now I understand that if they do not want to get the vaccine, that is their right.  But why keep others from getting it?  Their whole spiel is "You can't tell me what to do with my body" but that is exactly what they are trying to do. A bunch of hypocrits.

[cherrypoptart]

"Science says schools are safe..."

https://news.yahoo.com/science-says-schools-are-safe-so-whats-keeping-them-closed-202539045.html

I've got to call malarkey on that.

I agree with the teachers' unions here. There is no possible way that opening schools won't get a bunch of teachers killed by the virus and a lesser number of students too. Even with masking and even with testing. No chance that it can be done safely. None whatsoever. Zero. Everyone would need to be wearing level 4 hazmat suits at all times for that to have any chance of actually working and that option as far as I know is not on the table. Just my opinion.

The tests aren't that accurate. The masks aren't very effective. People especially children aren't very good at using masks properly. In restrooms where the toilet seats don't even have lids and having no eye protection and with the virus found in feces that gets shot up into the air riding on water droplets and all the kids having to cram into the restrooms in the short period of time between class periods how does the science on that being safe make any sense?

Have we even found out anything in the last year about the virus being spread by touching contaminated surfaces? That was the big thing at first. Masks won't help but you really need to wash your hands. How is that advice holding up? Was it 1 for 2 or 0 for 2? We know now they were wrong about the masks. What about the surfaces? Were they wrong about that too and just don't want to admit that they got nothing right including when they also opposed travel bans? We haven't really gotten any updated information on that. Do we still need to be wiping down groceries? Has anyone been proven to have gotten infected from contaminated surfaces? I heard one story out of New Zealand a while back and China said they found the virus in ice-cream but has anyone actually been infected that way? I haven't seen any stories detailing proven cases of that vector and you'd think there would be lots of them by now. But the point is that if contaminated surfaces really are a serious infection vector how would anyone in their right mind think that opening schools would be safe? Have any of these people ever been in a public school? Gone up and down a crowded stairwell with an armful of books in a jostling crowd having to hold the railing not to break a leg falling down the stairs? Gotten onto or off of a school bus? And the busses... how do they figure bus rides are going to be safe? And then there's P.E. too. Or is there?


Then there seems to be the argument that kids aren't really that much of an infection vector for this virus which would make this pretty much unique among these types of viruses if children aren't the little incubation and promulgation factories that they are for just about everything else. Makes zero sense.


I'm getting all worked up again just like I did at the beginning when the "experts" were telling us not to wear masks and we'd be fine with hand washing. Now they are saying schools are safe with exactly the same proud ignorant arrogance. I'm going to call it again right now the same way I did back then. They are outright lying. If they aren't they are exhibiting a level of professional incompetence that is so outrageous it's not only unlikely it's literally unbelievable. They know it won't be safe but just like the priority back then was masks for medical personnel, the priority right now is educating children so they and our country have a bright future. And that's fine. Just say those are the priorities and stop lying about it instead of telling us what they feel they need to tell us so they can just do whatever it is they want to do.

It's going to be interesting to see what Biden does here. He says he will follow the advice of the experts. Is he going to follow their advice right over a Covid cliff?

[LetterRip]

The experts said social distance and don't be indoors with other people, avoid groups - those are close to 100% effective without masks.

The experts were aware that telling people to use masks would have predictable result of people ignoring the social distancing requirements - leading to a net increase in infections which is what happened.

Of course on top of that many people are ignoring social distancing and also not using masks.

[msquared]

Cherry

I think I agree it might be too early to open schools, but what is your thought on vaccinating the teaching population? If the teachers/staff are vaccinated, that reduces the risk for the teachers.  As others here have said the risk factor for very young children is vanishingly small.

[cherrypoptart]

Well now the experts are apparently saying that dozens of loudly talking sometimes shouting kids in a small classroom with poor ventilation, an elderly teacher, and only poorly fitting homemade cloth masks will be fine. What could go wrong?

[cherrypoptart]

Sure if teachers have to teach they should absolutely be given priority vaccinations if they want to get back into the classroom.

Vanishingly small may be as a percentage but when we're talking about maybe 56 million kids in school a vanishingly small percentage of them may be thousands.

It's also too early to be sure about the long-term health impacts of Covid-19 even to children who seem to shrug it off.

If people choose to send their children back to school and vaccinated teachers are willing to teach then it's a free country. When hundreds or maybe thousands of children get sick and hospitalized or even die I just don't want to hear people saying nobody told us about the risks and they said it was safe.

[cherrypoptart]

Now if the vaccines really work and everyone among the kids and teachers whose health allows them to get a vaccine gets one before the schools open then we'd be in business. That's probably a few months off though.

[Grant]

I agree with the teachers' unions here.

That must be a first for you Cherry.  When did you come around on teacher's unions? 

Just my opinion.

Based on your high levels of knowledge and research in infectious disease transmission. 

The tests aren't that accurate.

The tests are in fact very accurate, depending on the viral load you have, the time you have been infected, and the type of test and how many times you have taken the tests.  It's certainly possible for a single test to be inaccurate.  As much as 20% false positive or negative.  That's why taking these big surveys like they did in California at the beginning tell nothing.  But multiple tests, over time, on a single patient, with different kinds of tests, PCR, antibody, antigen, are extremely accurate.  Put in place with a regimen of testing temperatures and checking for symptoms, you have a pretty good system for finding those infected.  Add in precautions like mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing and you have a recipe for reducing infection and transmission. 

How do I know this?  I'm one of the people in charge of covid prevention and response in a work environment very much like being on a cruise ship.  Tight quarters.  Communal living spaces.  Everyone touches everything all the time.  We have had covid positives.  They have slipped by the testing net.  Yet we were able to prevent widespread infection because of social distancing and regular temperature checks.  It's the same throughout my industry.  The testing eliminates 80-95% of our risk, and other precautions eliminates the rest. 

The masks aren't very effective.

It depends on how you measure effectiveness and the type of mask we're talking about.  N95s are very effective on a personal level.  Surgical masks and cotton masks are less effective, but do have an effect.  If 100 people would have been infected from 40, while not wearing masks, you can reduce that number to 40-60 while wearing cotton or surgical masks.  You're slowing the growth.  Masks are not a magic bullet, but they are very effective when widely used to limit spread. 

People especially children aren't very good at using masks properly. In restrooms where the toilet seats don't even have lids and having no eye protection and with the virus found in feces that gets shot up into the air riding on water droplets and all the kids having to cram into the restrooms in the short period of time between class periods how does the science on that being safe make any sense?

Disaster eh?  There is little evidence that spread is explosive in schools, because schools have prevention plans and young children seem to be less susceptible to spread.  If what you claim is all true, that masks don't work and you can't stop spread, then all of these private schools and other areas that have opened would be seeing massive spread and be shutting down from infection.  I have two kids in an elementary school that has been open all school year.  They're hyper vigilant, the kids are better at mask wearing than many adults, and there has been very little spread.  Never shut down.  You get warned if someone in the class or on the bus is found positive.  Has only happened once that another kid on a bus was infected.  No spread.  Both the kids also go to karate practice.  The kids wear masks and the instructors only wear face shields.  Only one case in 6 months.  No spread. 

Have we even found out anything in the last year about the virus being spread by touching contaminated surfaces? That was the big thing at first.

 

It was.  There was a bunch of tests to find out half lives of the virus on different materials, etc.  Then the CDC came out with research that pointed to contaminated surfaces not being a major driver to infection.  Again, this is over 1000s of people, not individuals.  Don't start licking doorknobs and not washing your hands. 

We know now they were wrong about the masks.

Nobody was WRONG about the masks.  They were stupid about the masks and stupid people listened and heard what they wanted to hear instead of thinking.  I'm unsure where you're coming down on the masks.  I thought you just said that masks were ineffective.  So were they right or wrong or wrong and right or what? 

I'm getting all worked up again just like I did at the beginning when the "experts" were telling us not to wear masks and we'd be fine with hand washing. Now they are saying schools are safe with exactly the same proud ignorant arrogance.  I'm going to call it again right now the same way I did back then. They are outright lying.

 

They're all lying.  Ok.  Go with that. 

It's going to be interesting to see what Biden does here. He says he will follow the advice of the experts. Is he going to follow their advice right over a Covid cliff?

I certainly hope he does.  Even when proven wrong the experts are going to get it right more often then morons giving their uneducated opinions online. 

[LetterRip]

The vague plan I've heard is opening in 100 days.

Locally I know teachers are already getting vaccinated.

I'd assume all school employees is around 10 million, so about 10% of the vaccines over the next 100 days for all school employees (teachers + admin + janitors etc).

I'd also do temperature scans of all arriving individuals, and also request that people avoid using otc medications that reduce fever.

I think those two measures alone would have pretty dramatic effect.

As to feces containing  virus - the last research I looked at showed it as inactivated rather than viable virus.

There has been one study that suggests a possible aerosolized fecal transmission.

That said my temperature monitoring suggestion should largely eliminate that risk if it does exist.

[msquared]

I  think Ohio wants to start in person classes Mar 1 and teachers are group 1B, which means they have been able to get the vaccine for a week or two already.

I think our local district has been doing a hybrid class schedule.  Half the students go on certain days and the other half on other days and some on line work.

[cherrypoptart]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-07-22/how-countries-reopened-schools-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic

"Israel: Too much, too soon

Israel took stringent steps early on in the coronavirus pandemic, including severely restricting everyone's movement and closing all schools. By June, it was being lauded internationally for containing the spread of COVID-19.

But shortly after schools reopened in May, on a staggered schedule paired with mask mandates and social distancing rules, COVID-19 cases surged across Israel. Schoolchildren and teachers were among the sick. Today, several hundred Israeli schools have closed again.

Some blame lax enforcement of health guidelines in schools. The weather didn't help: In May, a record heat wave hit Israel, making masks uncomfortable for students to wear.

But schools were only part of a broader reopening in Israel that, many experts say, came too soon and without sufficient testing capacity.

"The reopening happened too fast," said Mohammed Khatib, an epidemiologist on Israel's national COVID-19 task force. "It was undertaken so quickly that it triggered a very sharp spike, and the return to more conservative measures came too little, much too late."

Israel's public health director, Siegal Sadetski, resigned in early July, saying the health ministry had ignored her warnings about reopening schools and businesses so rapidly."

------------------------------------------------------

Other countries fared better than Israel. We'll see how we do I guess. I don't really have any personal skin in that game so I hope it goes well if we try it. Just don't say nobody warned ya.

[cherrypoptart]

"They're all lying.  Ok.  Go with that."

There are plenty of stories describing how Fauci admitted lying about face masks.

And also about the level of vaccinations needed for herd immunity.

 
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/12/27/2004438/-There-Seems-To-Be-Some-Confusion-Here-Fauci-Admitted-He-Lied-To-Us-About-Masks

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/marco-rubio-anthony-fauci-lied-face-masks-covid-b1779356.html

Rubio called it right on the money:

"Dr. Fauci lied about masks in March," he said.

"Dr. Fauci has been distorting the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity.

"It isn’t just him.

"Many in elite bubbles believe the American public doesn’t know “what’s good for them” so they need to be tricked into “doing the right thing.”

-------------------------------------------------

All I'm saying is that even if opening schools is the right thing to do, the American people shouldn't be tricked into doing the right thing. Again.

[Grant]

There are plenty of stories describing how Fauci admitted lying about face masks.

K.  Your sources are Marco Rubio and some rando posting on DailyKos.  Good research. 

I don't think Fauci lied because he stated up front, UP FRONT, that it was about a shortage of masks and he said that medical providers and sick people needed it more.  There was a bunch of bs put out by the CDC and alluded to by Fauci that implied that the plebs couldn't use a mask properly.  That's basically right.  But the solution to morons in the general public is education, not wholesale throwing away a PPE control for infection during a pandemic.  But they knew that.  They said up front that it was about a shortage.  So did all the people on here that were repeating the idea that people shouldn't be buying up surgical masks and N95s. 

Here is what Fauci said on 60 minutes:

Right now people should not be…there is no reason to be walking around with a mask.  When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better, and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is, and often there are unintended consequences, people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face....
When you think masks, you should think of healthcare providers needing them and people that are ill. 

He's bull*censored*ting, he's using data that points to what he wants instead of being 100% up front.  But it's all right there.  It always was. I pointed it out back in march.  If masks don't work, then why are healthcare providers using it?  He later admitted that it was about about the shortage when they reversed and said that people should be wearing masks.  He admitted it up front.  There was no lie. People really are horrible and untrained on wearing masks.  We've all seen it.  There are probably webpages full of pictures of people wearing masks incorrectly.  People just read into it what they wanted to.  That's why you need to listen closely to what these people are saying.

Rubio called it right on the money:

"Dr. Fauci lied about masks in March," he said.

"Dr. Fauci has been distorting the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity.

I hate to say this, because I used to love Marco Rubio, before he went full Trump, but Rubio is full of *censored*.  He's doing exactly what he is accusing other people of doing.  He's lying to people because that is what they want to hear.  The same story you linked goes into how Fauci got to his math for vaccinations.  He adjusted when the estimated amount of people taking the virus changed.  That's what you do.  When the input changes the output changes and he was up front about it.   

All I'm saying is that even if opening schools is the right thing to do, the American people shouldn't be tricked into doing the right thing. Again.

I have no idea how just opening schools should be the right thing to do if it is not safe.  Education certainly has nothing to do with it.  It probably has more to do with parents wanting to get their kids out of the house. 

[Fenring]

I still don't think masks are particularly important when weighed against social distance, and I suppose other measures like taking temperature. That's not a new technique and could have been done in schools from day 1. I continue to believe that masks are probably more of a detriment than a help. Even now, most people whoa are wearing a mask that I see will walk right up to other people. When I tell them to please keep social distance, they actually say "why? I have my mask on." So in short there is no amount of "education" in this environment that will do anything about this, short of kidnapping people and forcing them to watch a  Clockwork Orange style seminar where it is certain they're watching. I am qualifying it with "in this environment" because the public authorities had *one chance*, and only one chance, at the start to put out a message of what people should do, and stick with it. The moment flip-flopping occurred, backpedals, restatements, and all the rest of the "now we know this!" followed by "actually it's not that, it's this!" any chance of ever getting people on board with procedure was out the window.

So I am not really surprised that someone like Fauci is accused of lying. Grant, the quote your provided above is quite telling. I don't think he's BS'ing, I think that's the real deal. The BS'ing is the "do something!" bureaucratic attitude, where irrelevant actions are taken to make it look like you're getting something done. At which point the experts are roped into saying whatever the admin wants them to, "or we can find someone else to get the PR and interviews." So it ends up like, 'Uh, oh yeah, of course everyone should have masks, like we always said..."

Not that masks are bad, but if it means (and it does) that social distancing will decline, then my inclination would be to ban masks and make them illegal. Instead pepper should be sprayed aerially in cities, making everyone cough and sneeze, so that they will be too terrified to approach with 100 yards of anyone.

[DonaldD]

Social distancing and masks are complementary. There are absolutely times where it's impossible to social distance even for short periods of time: for example, in the case where someone needs to work in the presence of others. It's not either/or, and neglecting mask use at this point in time will significantly aggravate the current situation.

[Fenring]

Social distancing and masks are complementary. There are absolutely times where it's impossible to social distance even for short periods of time: for example, in the case where someone needs to work in the presence of others. It's not either/or, and neglecting mask use at this point in time will significantly aggravate the current situation.

What do you mean "needs" to work in the presence of others? There are a few situations where it is unavoidable to be within 6 feet: for instance movers lifting a heavy object together. But in most cases I doubt there is any need at all to be within 6 feet. In most cases I suspect that breaking social distance is a result of not feeling like going through the often arduous step of establishing how to do things without coming near each other. Schools involving young children are an exception to what I'm saying because obviously they just don't understand.

[DonaldD]

Every front line service industry person, and every one of their customers, just for starters.  Vast numbers of people in the food preparation industry is another example.  And whether you social distance is not completely in your control outside of these necessary situations: even ignoring the crazies like the vaccination centre protesters and Republican legislators, there are millions of people in the US who think the virus is a hoax and many who simply go out of their way to disrupt other people's attempts at virus mitigation. Not to mention - 6 feet is a rule of thumb - it is no guarantee, and the longer one stays in others' company, the less effective a simple 6 foot distance is.