I agree about the average person but I know some people who are very afraid of the virus, also afraid of the vaccines, but not at all afraid of wearing masks. I wonder what the odds are that being very careful they'll be able to avoid infection for another year or more, or two or three years, or however long it takes for this storm to blow over. Or if it ever will. Eventually though after enough people get infected we may get over the rainbow to herd immunity or the virus will attenuate its severity enough that it's on par with the average cold.
Excellent question, both in the "I have very little idea what the answer is" and "I'd very much like to" senses of the phrase. And those two situations you describe latterly are very different as regards the prospects for those people. Or perhaps three to be a little more precise: we can post-pandemic by population immunity, but by my maths that really does require multiple immunisations, of either sort. Two shots of the best-available vaccines in everyone -- much less in people it's approved for, never mind before we get to those that'd consent to this, at any speak -- aren't sufficient by themselves. And "natural antibodies" (as opposed to what, the nanobot ones? the metaphysical ones?) from a single bout of disease alone is likely somewhat
worse. Not that you'd think that from the 'had it so now I'm a ronatank' commentary here and elsewhere. And admittedly the data on that seems to be limited, and likely is in any case more variable: vaccines are carefully and calibrated tested doses, courses of the disease are not. So perversely the "I had it bad and I changed my mind, jab me up now" people might need it
less, and the 'it's nothing, and now it'll bounce off me' emboldened may need it
more, were they only competent judges of their own best interests. So we're waiting for some combo of boosters and 'let 'er rip, but hopefully not
too fast' to get us there.
As for attenuation, there's two sub-cases. There's the objective one, where the virus spontaneously undergoes "passage" and becomes significantly less harmful, even to a completely naive immune system. That's possible, but I have no idea if it's at all likely. Lots of variants so far (the Big Four are broad categories, and not exhaustive), and no
huge reported changes in severity so far -- in either direction. Of course, if you're an Evil Genius for a Better Tomorrow, you could always invent one! Then you'd have something like the original vaccine -- Jenner's cowpox inoculation against smallpox. (If you're a sufficiently deep conspiracy theorist, of course this has already happened: the
virus is a hoax nothingburger, but the
vaccine is a live and infectious virus. Fair is foul, and foul is fair! Hover through the fog and filthy air. [Exeunt all, on broomsticks.])
The other is subjective attenuation. That's if population immunity creeps up in a layered manner, without ever getting to R_0 < 1 for any infection spread, but exposure means that the severity curve is more like that of a seasonal flu or even a cold. From a public health point of view, good enough, situation over, resume your old normal. But not great if you've been a one-person New Zealand, have avoided
any exposure, and the disease is still circulating rather briskly. You're still at the original degree of risk. And if I were a betting man, I'd say this is the most likely outcome of the three.
On the plus side, people can get exposed, especially at low levels, without ever realizing it. So hopefully the baseline creeps up for most people, even without them having any discrete immunisation 'events' they were aware of. And hopefully also some of the 'vaccine hesitant' find various ladders to climb down. One has been fully approved in the US, so that in theory gets rid of one objection. Maybe another billion doses administered would be enough to dispose of 'experimental'. If people are fixated on the mRNA ones (GMO humans!), there's already viral-vector vaccines, and there are protein subunit and whole-virus ones in Phase 3 Trial, maybe actually already approved in some places (certainly other viral-vectors ones are, but not in the USA). Also non-injected vaccines, for that matter, specifically nasal ones. Aside from the out-and-out needlephobic, I wonder if that's an easier sell for some of the Purity of our Vital Bodily Fluids crowd. If you're going to be huffing either the virus or the vaccine by the same route eventually, why not opt for the nerfed version? Won't shift the hardcore, but there's more rejoicing in heaven over the one sinner that repents, etc.
