Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 619925 times)

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3800 on: December 03, 2021, 10:57:30 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/madrid-the-city-that-wouldnt-lockdown-isabel-diaz-ayuso-freedom-covid-19-coronavirus-11638475346


"The Spanish capital wasn’t Florida. Some restrictions remained, including a curfew, neighborhood-based controls on movement, and a mask mandate, strangely even outdoors. I recall often walking through uncrowded streets with a mask on, only to remove it to eat once seated in a busy restaurant. Though locals sometimes described dodging targeted lockdowns, Spaniards seemed less resistant to masking than most. It was rare to see someone outside with an uncovered face, and plenty continued to wear masks after the mandate was narrowed to apply indoors only...

... Masks are still required indoors in Madrid. But unlike in France or Italy, restaurant and bar patrons don’t need to show a Covid health pass to enter."

So this lady is living in Spain with over an 80% vaccination rate constantly rails about freedom, and yet she had the good sense to make everyone including the vaccinated keep their masks on indoors (except while eating, the same as us) while Biden with a lower vaccination rate in America told everyone it was safe for the vaccinated to take them off with no checks to make sure the unvaccinated didn't do the same.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-shift-mask-politics/2021/07/28/906383ba-ef14-11eb-81d2-ffae0f931b8f_story.html

"Standing maskless in the White House Rose Garden on a sunny May afternoon, President Biden heralded some happy news. “If you’ve been fully vaccinated, you no longer need to wear a mask,” the president declared. “It’s vaxxed or masked.”

Less than three months later, amid rising cases driven by the delta variant and more breakthrough coronavirus infections, Biden was forced this week to back away from that proclamation. The administration issued new guidance Tuesday that encourages fully vaccinated Americans to wear masks indoors in places with substantial infection levels, encompassing more than 60 percent of the nation’s counties."

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Yeah, new guidance. The problem is nobody is listening to the new guidance. Unlike in Madrid, people are unmasked everywhere because Biden couldn't put that toothpaste back in the tube.

It's my usual schpeel but I was just pleasantly surprised by this lady in Madrid who agrees with me 100% and it's working. Sure, get the high vaccination rate and that's fantastic but there is no need to take off the masks, in fact they need to stay on, and the lockdowns never made any sense to begin with. And they eventually got around to taking the masks off outside too which is fine unless you are in crowds. Maybe the main reason we had to have lockdowns was because our government had told us not to wear masks. If we'd had a leader like this wonderful lady Isabel Díaz Ayuso we would be in such a better place right now, hundreds of thousands of Americans still alive and the economy doing better too.

yossarian22c

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3801 on: December 03, 2021, 11:41:18 AM »
...
Less than three months later, amid rising cases driven by the delta variant and more breakthrough coronavirus infections, Biden was forced this week to back away from that proclamation. The administration issued new guidance Tuesday that encourages fully vaccinated Americans to wear masks indoors in places with substantial infection levels, encompassing more than 60 percent of the nation’s counties."

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Yeah, new guidance. The problem is nobody is listening to the new guidance. Unlike in Madrid, people are unmasked everywhere because Biden couldn't put that toothpaste back in the tube.
...

People are listening to the guidance. Just not where you live because the governor is fighting the guidance. When I go to the grocery store everyone is wearing a mask because its required in my city. Mask mandates are state and local. Blame your local/state officials that no one decided to listen to the updated guidance.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3802 on: December 03, 2021, 12:22:21 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/missouri-withheld-data-showing-effectiveness-132036581.html

Missouri Withheld Data Showing Effectiveness of Mask Mandates

"Mask mandates were effective as the delta variant of the coronavirus was driving a surge in COVID-19 cases across Missouri, according to an analysis that the state’s Department of Health and Senior Services conducted in early November.

But the state did not immediately share that data with the public. Instead, the information was released Wednesday, a month later, because of a public records request by The Missouri Independent, a nonprofit news organization that reported the findings, and the Documenting COVID-19 project at the Brown Institute for Media Innovation.

The records include an email dated Nov. 3 from the director of Missouri’s Health Department to a staff member in the governor’s office. The email included two graphs that compared the rates of reported COVID cases and deaths in parts of Missouri with and without mask mandates...

... The study looked at the period from April to October, when the delta variant was driving an increase in coronavirus infections worldwide.

During that time frame, there were 15.8 cases per day for every 100,000 residents, on average, in the areas that required masks, compared with 21.7 cases per 100,000 residents in unmasked communities, according to The Missouri Independent’s analysis of the data. Regions without mask requirements recorded 1 death per 100,000 residents every 3.5 days, compared with 1 death per 100,000 residents every five days where masks were required, the Independent said."

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The only places I'm going into are the big box retailers like Walmart and Best Buy and they were requiring masks for all adults regardless of what state and local governments said up until Biden told them that people could take them off.

It's nice to know though that state governments are so anti-mask that they are willing to cover up the data proving that they are effective. Nice to know so hopefully they can be held to account and voted out, the people willing.


rightleft22

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3803 on: December 03, 2021, 12:31:11 PM »
In hind sight the first move going forward when hearing new viruses of concern ought to be a mask and testing policy not so much travel policy 

I find it odd that the US is only now confirming cases of the Omicron variant. My bet is that its been present in the US for a while.
It also wouldn't surprise me to find out that the US doesn't look for new variants and if they found one would report it.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3804 on: December 03, 2021, 02:03:28 PM »
Looks like the US is still full sequence sampling plenty, it's just a matter of a new strain happening to be one of the "lucky contestants" that gets sequenced to that kind of an extent.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

jc44

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3805 on: December 03, 2021, 02:40:04 PM »
I think omicron is still in the early stages of spread so most countries really only do have a few cases - South Africa spotted its existence very quickly, probably helped by the fact that it produces unusual results on standard PCR tests (one test that you would expect to be positive given that all the others are is negative for omicron - if you want more detail than that you are going to have to google it yourself).

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3806 on: December 03, 2021, 02:43:32 PM »
US has been sequencing 1 in 7 PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases.

So at 80,000 new cases a day - that would be 11,400 or so sequenced.  Which means that it is extremely unlikely that there were more than a handful of Omnicron cases in recent history.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3807 on: December 03, 2021, 02:50:08 PM »
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-announces-plan-prevent-winter-235014210.html

"Biden emphasized that his plan “doesn’t include shutdowns or lockdowns” and said he hoped Americans would rally around the new efforts."

His plan doesn't include emphasizing masks either, and the only mention of it is for transportation. We're going to keep doing what we've been doing and we're going to keep getting what we've been getting. Failure.

yossarian22c

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3808 on: December 03, 2021, 03:53:35 PM »
...
His plan doesn't include emphasizing masks either, and the only mention of it is for transportation. We're going to keep doing what we've been doing and we're going to keep getting what we've been getting. Failure.

At least his plan isn't to shut down the US government to oppose the limited vaccine mandates that are in place.

yossarian22c

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3809 on: December 03, 2021, 03:56:38 PM »
...
It's nice to know though that state governments are so anti-mask that they are willing to cover up the data proving that they are effective. Nice to know so hopefully they can be held to account and voted out, the people willing.

It would be nice if democracy worked that way. Unfortunately your brethren in the Republican party don't care and will reelect the same people who hid data from them.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3810 on: December 04, 2021, 11:43:08 PM »
Looking like the vaccines might not be very effective against the Omnicron variant in terms of preventing spread,

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Only vaccinated employees were invited. All had to take a rapid test the day before.

The party, at Louise, an upscale Oslo restaurant serving seafood and Scandinavian fare, included about 120 people, several of whom had just returned from South Africa, where the company has a solar-panel project.

More than half of those present have since tested positive for Covid-19, with at least 13 confirmed to have the new variant in what appears to be the world’s biggest Omicron outbreak outside southern Africa—and a glimpse into how it fares in a highly-vaccinated population.”

though mild symptoms,

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It spread among fully vaccinated people, but symptoms among those infected so far appear mild

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-cases-at-norway-christmas-party-provide-clues-on-new-variants-spread-11638554033

It is now 100 out of 120 attendees have tested positive.

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sa-blev-julbordet-ett-superspridarevent-/

Hopefully the vaccines are still effective against severe illness.

msquared

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3811 on: December 06, 2021, 10:23:50 AM »
Well we are at 71% of the whole country with at least 1 shot.

Wayward Son

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3812 on: December 06, 2021, 04:59:55 PM »
Well, as was expected, [https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate]Covid-19 is now killing Republicans more than Democrats.[/url]

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As the scatterplot on the left shows, the Trumpier a county is, the fewer people are vaccinated. And the more people who are running around unvaccinated, the more people die.

According to a study from the Kaiser Family Foundation, an unvaccinated person is three times as likely to identify as a Republican than as a Democrat. In fact, partisanship is now the best predictor of whether someone is vaccinated or not. It wasn't always this way, however. Earlier in the pandemic, Black folks and young people resisted vaccination, but now most of them have gotten their shots. At this point, 91% of Democrats are vaccinated vs. 59% of Republicans.

This has consequences. Lethal consequences. The vast majority of the 150,000 deaths since May have been among the unvaccinated—that is, among Republicans. If one examines the pool of unvaccinated people since April, initially the pool had roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. But now 60% of the unvaccinated are Republicans and only 17% are Democrats. Here is a graph showing how the vax gap has grown over time.

Misinformation seems to be the major factor in the gap. The pollsters read people four false statements about COVID-19. A full 94% of Republicans believed at least one of them and 46% believed all four. Only 14% of the Democrats believed all four. The most widely believed false statement is: "The government is exaggerating the number of COVID-19 deaths."

For those who might worry, though, this will probably not affect the next election or the one after that.

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Will the differential death rates affect the 2022 elections? Probably not, because most of the deaths are occurring in very Trumpy counties that will still go Republican, even with slightly smaller numbers of Republican voters.

Of course, since political affiliation is not tracked among Covid deaths, a similar ratio may be occurring even in tightly-contested counties.  But they will also have fewer cases, since with more vaccinated people, fewer will carry and spread the disease.  So it is probably insignificant in those areas.  And for the Presidential election, only the redist states will have a noticeable drop in Republican voters, which they can easily handle.

So no discernable reason for the Republican Party to worry about it at all.  ;)

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3813 on: December 06, 2021, 05:36:01 PM »
The remainder of the unvaccinated are mostly those who vote a pure Republican ticket but identify as Independents.  So it is more like 86% of the unvaccinated are Republican/Republican leaning.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3814 on: December 06, 2021, 05:54:54 PM »
Curious to guess at the indirect political consequence. Loss of popular right wing media figures, donors, activists, organizers. After all, a leadership cull is likely assuming that older folks are more vulnerable.

Bill Montgomery [founder of Turning Point USA] died of complications from COVID-19 in July 2020. After his death, Turning Point USA deleted a tweet that mocked wearers of protective masks.

His message was snuffed out...

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“[E]very single time I go into one of these grocery stores, ‘Where’s your mask?’ I say, well first of all, the science around masks is very questionable, very questionable,” he said during a recent episode of his podcast. “In fact some people, some doctors think that masks actually make you sicker and have you less likely to be able to get oxygen and more likely to infect yourself, and less likely to be able to fight the virus, and actually more likely to be able to die sooner."

HCA awarded.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3815 on: December 07, 2021, 02:31:15 AM »
The remainder of the unvaccinated are mostly those who vote a pure Republican ticket but identify as Independents.  So it is more like 86% of the unvaccinated are Republican/Republican leaning.

Would you really want to bet on that? A large contingent of the unvaccinated also happen to be Black, and vote Democrat historically. Their refusal to vaccinate has something to do with what has happened in the past when the government offers them free health services.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3816 on: December 07, 2021, 08:51:17 AM »
Would you really want to bet on that? A large contingent of the unvaccinated also happen to be Black, and vote Democrat historically. Their refusal to vaccinate has something to do with what has happened in the past when the government offers them free health services.

Are you saying that if the difference between black people trusting the vaccine or not is whether they have to pay for it?

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3817 on: December 07, 2021, 10:58:42 AM »
The remainder of the unvaccinated are mostly those who vote a pure Republican ticket but identify as Independents.  So it is more like 86% of the unvaccinated are Republican/Republican leaning.

Would you really want to bet on that? A large contingent of the unvaccinated also happen to be Black, and vote Democrat historically. Their refusal to vaccinate has something to do with what has happened in the past when the government offers them free health services.

Data please. How much of the current population that is unvaccinated is in your category? Not 12 months ago, now.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3818 on: December 08, 2021, 12:28:08 AM »
You know it's bad when even NPR is calling out Biden for his failure on covid testing.

https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-gets-testy-over-192232506.html

"NPR's Mara Liasson pressed Psaki on the continued hurdles Americans face in getting rapid, at-home coronavirus tests. The administration recently announced people with private health insurance would be reimbursed for the tests, which often cost between $20 and $30 for a pair.

"That's kind of complicated, though," Liasson noted. "Why not just make them free and give them out to - and have them available everywhere?"

Psaki shot back sarcastically: "Should we just send one to every American?...

... As plenty noted after the exchange, it's not like sending free tests to everyone is some unthinkable idea. The United Kingdom allows people to mail-order seven tests at a time, free of charge. Singapore has sent not one but six free rapid tests to every household."

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So Biden who bragged about how he was going to shutdown the virus fails on masks and testing. He's trying his best on vaccines which is good for keeping people from getting hospitalized and dying but also good at making sure as many people as possible get exposed to the virus since he also told them to take off their masks if they were vaccinated. That's risky both because of breakthrough infections as well as giving more chances for dangerous mutations. Dropping the ball on masks and testing, well actually throwing the ball into a lake on masks, precautions that actually help keep people from spreading the virus around in the first place, are unforced errors Biden is doing all on his own, and gleefully in the case of masks.

With all the people whining about masks and getting all upset about vaccines too at least if we could have had a fallback position on cheap, accurate, abundant testing that would have been something.




rightleft22

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3819 on: December 08, 2021, 09:56:05 AM »
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it's not like sending free tests to everyone is some unthinkable idea.
Sounds like socialism to me.  :o

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He's trying his best on vaccines which is good for keeping people from getting hospitalized and dying but also good at making sure as many people as possible get exposed to the virus
Not sure if its a simple as that. Vaccines also help make it less likely a person is contagious or contagious for longer period of time.
A argument could be made that because it is likely 20 - 30% of the population won't get vaccinated that we are going to have to learn to live with Corvid and its mutations. It might them be a 'good' thing that the vaccinated get exposed so they can get the natural defense while not ending up in the hospital.

That said cheap accurate testing would be a positive... my gut feel is that a good percentage of the unvaccinated won't be ok with that either.  We can bend over backwards trying to protect the unvaccinated but you can't help people that don't want to be helped.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3820 on: December 08, 2021, 10:25:10 AM »
My favorite thing is the meme asking if free shots are for the good of the nation, why don't we give free insulin and chemo?

Good point, why don't we? It's a much stronger agreement to advocate for socialized medicine than against the vaccine

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3821 on: December 08, 2021, 12:35:53 PM »
Would you really want to bet on that? A large contingent of the unvaccinated also happen to be Black, and vote Democrat historically. Their refusal to vaccinate has something to do with what has happened in the past when the government offers them free health services.

Are you saying that if the difference between black people trusting the vaccine or not is whether they have to pay for it?

I doubt that's the entirety of it. But there is a very specific example in history where the government did provide them with free medical care in the past, and what they got for it wasn't good.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3822 on: December 08, 2021, 12:40:45 PM »
I doubt that's the entirety of it. But there is a very specific example in history where the government did provide them with free medical care in the past, and what they got for it wasn't good.

Right, but my question whether it being free is what would unnerve people now in your opinion, or is it the fact that the government is the one advising they get it? Because if they are getting other vaccines already (measles, mumps, etc) then why would this one be different? i.e. why would they trust the government guidelines for regular shots and booster shots, versus the covid vaccine? My guess is that it's less to do with it being suggested by the government, and more to do with the extreme haste with which they were developed. In effect, maybe the efficiency of the vaccine development is part of what's spooking people, like they believe there must be something wrong with a rushed product?

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3823 on: December 08, 2021, 01:28:18 PM »
I doubt that's the entirety of it. But there is a very specific example in history where the government did provide them with free medical care in the past, and what they got for it wasn't good.

Right, but my question whether it being free is what would unnerve people now in your opinion, or is it the fact that the government is the one advising they get it? Because if they are getting other vaccines already (measles, mumps, etc) then why would this one be different? i.e. why would they trust the government guidelines for regular shots and booster shots, versus the covid vaccine? My guess is that it's less to do with it being suggested by the government, and more to do with the extreme haste with which they were developed. In effect, maybe the efficiency of the vaccine development is part of what's spooking people, like they believe there must be something wrong with a rushed product?

Only because people haven't wrapped their head around how much advanced research has been done on coronaviruses in the past decade, plus the technology differences from what we had available to develop measles or polio vaccines. It does beg the question of whether the whole "warp speed" messaging didn't have something to do with perception of everything being dangerously rushed. In any event, now that hundreds of millions of people have had two doses, the whole rushed argument is out the window. If it was going to do something horrible, like the memes about the vaccine turning people into mutant zombies, I think we would have noticed by now.

Meanwhile, they don't seem to be so terrified about the rushed development of monoclonal antibody infusion. All of it is just an excuse to do what they "feel", not rational examination of data.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3824 on: December 08, 2021, 01:43:31 PM »
In any event, now that hundreds of millions of people have had two doses, the whole rushed argument is out the window. If it was going to do something horrible, like the memes about the vaccine turning people into mutant zombies, I think we would have noticed by now.

I don't think you're right. And although some people make claims ranging from "it disrupts your periods" to "it can cause immediate death", the fact that these are not right doesn't mean it will have no long-term effects. One thing people are right about is to distrust the ethics of pharmaceutical companies. They will lay bodies in graves by the thousand if it puts money in their bank account. They have zero ethical qualms about causing suffering, and any defect in a product will only be weighed on a cost/benefit of the sales versus the fine/lawsuit. This is also how auto manufacturers calculate whether to fix design defects or not. So I'm not saying I think the vaccine will do something to you, but I don't think it's foolish in the abstract to wonder what these companies put in the syringe.

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Meanwhile, they don't seem to be so terrified about the rushed development of monoclonal antibody infusion. All of it is just an excuse to do what they "feel", not rational examination of data.

Maybe. I can tell you anecdotally that I felt 'icky' getting the covid vaccines. I did not have any particular belief about harms it would cause, nor do I have some belief that getting a vaccine in the general sense makes my body impure. And yet I was quite nervous getting these vaccines in particular, even though when I got some other vaccines in December and January for travel (I forget which) it was like nothing to me. Maybe it's the media hype; maybe it's the fact that covid-19 has been branded as the next Black Death; maybe it's the profit-driven motives of these companies climbing over each other to produce vaccines asap; the whole thing is just unnerving. And I don't think it's for no reason that I was unnerved. Note again I have no animus against vaccines, and in fact am borderline in the camp of wondering whether everyone should be mass-vaccinated by force to just get it over with. And yet for all that it weirded me out. If it made me feel weird, it will make some other people feel positively crazy. You can bet on it. The task is to figure out why this is; blaming the stupid Trump supporters is a non-starter approach (hint: I am not one).

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3825 on: December 08, 2021, 01:54:14 PM »
It's fine to be nervous. I was nervous when I got my shot that I might be one of the rare individuals that would have a serious reaction. I had a mild panic attack sitting in my car waiting to see if my throat would close up and I'd be rushed to a triage tent. I don't see any mechanism for mysterious long-term effects, and they all pale when compared to known long-covid complications. Just like the worries about cardiac issues that also would be extremely likely to have occurred from getting actual full blown covid.

It's like when people would point to the rare occasions when a seat belt trapped someone in a burning car to justify not wearing one and arguing against mechanisms to ensure use. It's just not rational to be more worried about being trapped in a car than being thrown through the windshield. Is it okay to have some mild concern that such a thing might happen, well sure, but to let it sway you is pretty stupid.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3826 on: December 08, 2021, 02:11:49 PM »
It's like when people would point to the rare occasions when a seat belt trapped someone in a burning car to justify not wearing one and arguing against mechanisms to ensure use. It's just not rational to be more worried about being trapped in a car than being thrown through the windshield.

That's the funny thing, though: it *is* rational to be worried about new things. We are actually wired like that. The fact that the new thing may be vastly superior to the alternative doesn't change the fact that historically changes tended to come very slowly, both technologically and socially. We are in a bizarre age of changes so rapid that by the time it takes someone to learn to master a new system, like social media, you're already obsolete because the younger generation isn't even using that platform anymore. So many changes so quickly...I don't think it's irrational in the 'genetic sense' for us to feel very cautious, even leery, about brand new things, no matter how cool they may turn out to be. Looking back on the start of the phamaceutical age, especially in the first half of the 20th century...oh man, the stuff they gave people as "medicine". When there's no history of use to look back to, you bet that there's cause for worry. That's actually just good common sense. The rational impetus to do a thing because you estimate it's a good idea may surely overcome this instinct, but I think it's foolhardy to call the instinct stupid.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3827 on: December 08, 2021, 02:55:48 PM »
Probably the biggest reason for black and hispanic lower vaccination rates is because younger people in general have lower vaccination rates, and the average age of minorities is drastically lower.  Median minority age is 31; median white age is 44, median black age is 34, median hispanic age is 30, median asian age is 37.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/30/most-common-age-among-us-racial-ethnic-groups/

So the racial differences in vaccination are mostly just a reflection of age distribution differences by race.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3828 on: December 08, 2021, 03:20:23 PM »
The Bene Gesserit have a test for reason over instinct. The best thing we could do as a species is learn how to resist our animal instincts. Instinct tells us that if there have been three heads in a row, the next flip is likely to be tails. Instinct tells us that people who don't look like us are dangerous.

Maybe we need to post this at vaccination centers.

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Shall we use history as a guide? Okay. Yale ran a study from 2001 through 2010 that safety issues appeared in almost 1/3 of new medications made widely available. But these were drugs taken on a continuous basis, not one-off injections. It took 4.1 years to find those problems. But, these drugs were administered to relatively small populations. It took cumulative surveillance to determine that there were any problems, many of which simply resulted in additional side effects messaging in the information sheet. Many of those drugs could be withdrawn because they weren't the only game in town for the treatment of the illness they supposedly helped, and because that illness was not life threatening. Like Raptiva that had rare fatal results when used long-term (weekly injections) for psoriasis.

It is healthy to be skeptical of new drugs used to treat conditions that have alternate treatments and when the condition is not serious on its own and when relatively few people have ever taken it at all. I would have a lot more sympathy for someone skeptical in March or April than in December.


NobleHunter

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3829 on: December 08, 2021, 04:06:17 PM »
On the flip side, we do a ton of at best sub-optimal things because that's the way we've always done it. For example, apparently requiring patients to avoid eating or drinking anything prior to surgery is based on prerequisites for medical procedures which are no longer used. Surgeons insist that patients make themselves more likely to go into surgery dehydrated or with lower blood sugar because that's how we've done it for decades. 

It is difficult to test one's implicit assumptions but we need to be better at it, particularly in medicine and adjacent fields.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3830 on: December 08, 2021, 04:25:54 PM »
On the flip side, we do a ton of at best sub-optimal things because that's the way we've always done it. For example, apparently requiring patients to avoid eating or drinking anything prior to surgery is based on prerequisites for medical procedures which are no longer used.

The no food and drink is to avoid vomiting and aspiration into the lungs because anaesthesia hinders certain reflexes, water is allowed - so there isn't a risk of dehydration.

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This is because when the anaesthetic is used, your body's reflexes are temporarily stopped.

If your stomach has food and drink in it, there's a risk of vomiting or bringing up food into your throat. If this happens, the food could get into your lungs and affect your breathing, as well as causing damage to your lungs.


https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/operations-tests-and-procedures/can-i-eat-or-drink-before-an-operation/

NobleHunter

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3831 on: December 08, 2021, 06:39:57 PM »
The apparently bit was supposed to imply that there is information (off Twitter but it seems reliable) suggesting otherwise. That the current generation of analgesics and similar processes don't have the same risk of vomiting.

And the NHS's website will probably be the last place to feature any updated guidance on the topic. Especially given the current administration in the UK. It's the Tories have no interest in improving the outcomes of patients using the NHS.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3832 on: December 08, 2021, 06:52:43 PM »
As of 2020 30-40% of patients have postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV), both for general and regional anesthesia,

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7517815/

There is reduced risk for non-opiod anaesthetic medications, but it is still a risk (20% vs 33% in this small study for bariatric surgery)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24554545/
« Last Edit: December 08, 2021, 06:57:35 PM by LetterRip »

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3833 on: December 08, 2021, 07:50:31 PM »
Looks like it takes about 2x-3x the neutralizing antibodies to neutralize a viron of Omicron vs Delta.  So assuming Omicron has similar infectious dose - probably a few more break through infections relative to Delta.

Quote
Neutralization against the Omicron variant after three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was comparable to the neutralization against the wild-type strain observed in sera from individuals who received two doses of the companies’ COVID-19 vaccine: The geometric mean titer (GMT) of neutralizing antibody against the Omicron variant measured in the samples was 154 (after three doses), compared to 398 against the Delta variant (after three doses) and 155 against the ancestral strain (after two doses).

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-omicron-variant

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3834 on: December 08, 2021, 07:58:07 PM »
The Bene Gesserit have a test for reason over instinct. The best thing we could do as a species is learn how to resist our animal instincts. Instinct tells us that if there have been three heads in a row, the next flip is likely to be tails. Instinct tells us that people who don't look like us are dangerous.

I appreciate the reference, but the Bene Gesserit can only do what they do because (a) they have access to the entire history of ancestral memories, i.e. they have incredible amounts of information at their disposal, and (b) have to use mind enhancing drugs anyhow to be able to detect things at the level they do. So bottom line is that they can decide what is reasonable reason and what is useless instinct because they are super-advanced at understanding every part of human physiology and psychology. For us, we are not at the point where we should dare to deny the validity of instincts merely because they're instincts. Sometimes the instinct is correct, and is operating at levels far more sophisticated than cognitive awareness allows for. Our logic about ourselves is quite inferior to a lot of the mechanisms evolution has generated over time. Ideally we could take the best of both, but we're not there yet. Right now science has allowed certain parties to tap into these instincts and feed them bad data, so that's an issue. But that doesn't mean the instinct is wrong, per se. Feed garbage in to many types of sophisticated systems and you will still get garbage out. There's a pretty large amount of belief right now that one of our first world problems is actually a lack of reasonable connection to our instincts and natural awareness. There's not just one easy answer about how to be 'smarter' despite what the academy would boast.

DJQuag

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3835 on: December 08, 2021, 08:28:39 PM »
And on this in particular, totally. 10-20k years ago the common cold killed a whole bunch of people, and us lucky people are the descendents of those who were resistant. The point is we'll resist (vaccines) and the virus will mutate to be less deadly and more transmissible and a hundred years from now it'll be "just" the flu.

I'd be highly surprised if it persists past 2024 as an issue in the borders of the US. In some respects, I think it'll be a mostly dead issue for much of the electorate in the US by November 2022. Even if people are still dying by the hundreds per week across the nation by that point. (For comparison on average, 694 people died from car accidents in the US during every week of 2019; at present we're doing good to have that as the 7 day running average for daily deaths) For that matter, we've had years where the flu outpaced deaths from car accidents, and the Flu itself has been practically absent in the US since the Covid restrictions were put in place. It isn't just that the testing rates have dropped, the positivity rates for those being tested is extremely low.

I get where you're coming from, but no.

I'll admit covid is really big for media numbers, but end of the day it's not going away. No matter what we do.

The people who die from it are going to die. Very sad, most of them will have been antivax so I just can't bring myself to care *too* much.

It will keep mutating and there will be a different varient every year. This is *exactly* what influenza is and does. It's why we get called in every year for a new flu shot. The genie is out of the bottle, so to speak, and there's no shoving it back in.

There will be a flu shot, and there will be a covid shot. People who don't take them will die at a higher frequency then those who do. It's not rocket science.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3836 on: December 09, 2021, 01:37:53 AM »
We could beat covid the way Japan is but we're not willing to do what it takes. Masks, travel restrictions, social distancing, and vaccines.

We're going with the vaccine only approach with lip service, covid kabuki, given to the rest.

https://news.yahoo.com/japans-covid-19-cases-defy-030327683.html

I love how everybody is acting all surprised and scratching their heads in astonished bewilderment wondering what could be the cause of all of this success. Japan is doing what science says to do and they are getting the expected results. Yeah it could be any number of a bunch of weird things but Occam's razor says it's mostly just masks and travel restrictions added to vaccines which help fill the gap.


LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3837 on: December 09, 2021, 04:03:46 AM »
I love how everybody is acting all surprised and scratching their heads in astonished bewilderment wondering what could be the cause of all of this success.

See this map of countries that have full masking?

https://masks4all.co/what-countries-require-masks-in-public/

It isn't the masking.

Many countries have similar levels of masking compared to Japan.

My current theory is actually the widespread usage of home and hotel air purifiers,

https://www.fun-japan.jp/en/articles/9442

They are highly effective in hospital settings,

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02669-2
« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 04:06:41 AM by LetterRip »

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3838 on: December 09, 2021, 09:52:12 AM »
It isn't the masking.

Many countries have similar levels of masking compared to Japan.

My current theory is actually the widespread usage of home and hotel air purifiers,

One thing that stats can't tell us is the soft details in how people comport themselves. In a highly regimented country were duty and responsibility are set at a high mark, such as Japan, people act differently in ways that would be hard to detect. To take an easy example, how Japanese people get on a train is going to be different from how Americans do. People don't just saunter on slowly, or hold the door open, delaying the train. And likewise there may be social behaviors regarding virus transmission that don't relate to government mandates or rules such as masking. Maybe people just naturally give each other a wider berth in Japan; or maybe it's just obvious to them that anyone even with so much as a cold must wear a mask out, regardless of covid. Or maybe they have a more fastidious cleanliness regimen in places like schools as compared with Americans. Stuff like this could contribute as well.

rightleft22

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3839 on: December 09, 2021, 12:23:06 PM »
We could beat covid the way Japan is but we're not willing to do what it takes. Masks, travel restrictions, social distancing, and vaccines.

We're going with the vaccine only approach with lip service, covid kabuki, given to the rest.

https://news.yahoo.com/japans-covid-19-cases-defy-030327683.html

I love how everybody is acting all surprised and scratching their heads in astonished bewilderment wondering what could be the cause of all of this success. Japan is doing what science says to do and they are getting the expected results. Yeah it could be any number of a bunch of weird things but Occam's razor says it's mostly just masks and travel restrictions added to vaccines which help fill the gap.

Everyone is acting all surprised may be a overstatement. I personally don't know anyone who is surprised or scratching thier heads.  The reason why we aren't doing better even if we know better is that a large percentage of the population won't take the measures that might help the situation.  It is politicized even though if for differing 'reasonings' the not trusting the suggestions shows up in what I would call the extreme right and left movements.

The government is in a rock and a hard place  the harder the push the more the resistance and what's the point... nothing is going to change the minds of that 20-30% of the country.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3840 on: December 10, 2021, 05:21:46 PM »
One thing that stats can't tell us is the soft details in how people comport themselves. In a highly regimented country were duty and responsibility are set at a high mark, such as Japan, people act differently in ways that would be hard to detect. To take an easy example, how Japanese people get on a train is going to be different from how Americans do. People don't just saunter on slowly, or hold the door open, delaying the train. And likewise there may be social behaviors regarding virus transmission that don't relate to government mandates or rules such as masking. Maybe people just naturally give each other a wider berth in Japan; or maybe it's just obvious to them that anyone even with so much as a cold must wear a mask out, regardless of covid. Or maybe they have a more fastidious cleanliness regimen in places like schools as compared with Americans. Stuff like this could contribute as well.

"maybe people don't just naturally give each other a wider berth in Japan"

Doubtful, Americans are globally infamous for the size of the "personal bubble" they tend to want to maintain around others. Japan, on the other hand was better known for having comparatively smaller physical bubbles.

I do think there might be somethign to be said about the air filtration/purification aspect of things. As well as the tendencies for certain types of construction not as common in the Untied States because of climate / building code differences. Their buildings probably "breathe" better than ours. And given their proximity to Asia's infamous "brown cloud" problem due to proximity to China and Asia, I could fully believe they have a LOT more air cleaners running.

I vaguely recall that there was evidence to suggest covid19 didn't hold up well against ionized air/trace ozone. Although the EPA pages I'm finding on the matter aren't conclusive on the matter.

https://www.epa.gov/coronavirus/will-air-cleaner-or-air-purifier-help-protect-me-and-my-family-covid-19-my-home

Quote
When used properly, air purifiers can help reduce airborne contaminants including viruses in a home or confined space. However, by itself, a portable air cleaner is not enough to protect people from COVID-19. When used along with other best practices recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, operating an air cleaner can be part of a plan to protect yourself and your family.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3841 on: December 10, 2021, 06:21:24 PM »
"maybe people don't just naturally give each other a wider berth in Japan"

Doubtful, Americans are globally infamous for the size of the "personal bubble" they tend to want to maintain around others. Japan, on the other hand was better known for having comparatively smaller physical bubbles.

I didn't say it was this, I said this is an example of personal comportment that wouldn't make it onto a statistical analysis.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3842 on: December 10, 2021, 06:41:51 PM »
"maybe people don't just naturally give each other a wider berth in Japan"

Doubtful, Americans are globally infamous for the size of the "personal bubble" they tend to want to maintain around others. Japan, on the other hand was better known for having comparatively smaller physical bubbles.

I didn't say it was this, I said this is an example of personal comportment that wouldn't make it onto a statistical analysis.

A more probable one in some respects is the observation that Americans are loud. You don't get volume without moving a fair bit of air, but then, that doesn't explain why many European nations are having problems too. While Americans are loud, the Japanese aren't known for being particularly quiet when compared to others. Respectful? Certainly. But quiet? Probably not.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3843 on: December 10, 2021, 06:55:41 PM »
A more probable one in some respects is the observation that Americans are loud. You don't get volume without moving a fair bit of air, but then, that doesn't explain why many European nations are having problems too. While Americans are loud, the Japanese aren't known for being particularly quiet when compared to others. Respectful? Certainly. But quiet? Probably not.

Actually Japanese are quiet relative to many other nationalities and also do much less talking in public places,

Quote
When you are with some company, instead of talking, it is more polite to whisper. Some people respect quietness so much that depending on the time of day, those with small children get off the train at the following stop if their baby starts crying! Phones are strictly kept on silent mode and occasionally you will see someone forget to turn it off; they become quite embarrassed when their phone rings. Click here to read more about train etiquette in Japan.


https://hatagotravel.com/public-etiquette-in-japan/

https://jpninfo.com/16144

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3844 on: December 10, 2021, 08:20:27 PM »
A more probable one in some respects is the observation that Americans are loud. You don't get volume without moving a fair bit of air, but then, that doesn't explain why many European nations are having problems too. While Americans are loud, the Japanese aren't known for being particularly quiet when compared to others. Respectful? Certainly. But quiet? Probably not.

Actually Japanese are quiet relative to many other nationalities and also do much less talking in public places,

Quote
When you are with some company, instead of talking, it is more polite to whisper. Some people respect quietness so much that depending on the time of day, those with small children get off the train at the following stop if their baby starts crying! Phones are strictly kept on silent mode and occasionally you will see someone forget to turn it off; they become quite embarrassed when their phone rings. Click here to read more about train etiquette in Japan.

I stand corrected. Would add credence to that theory though.

But really I think the bigger driver on it is I strongly suspect Japan does building ventilation better than the US and much of Europe(and other parts of the world).

In this having walls literally made from paper is probably a benefit for helping reduce the viral load likely to be present in a room. Older constructions that managed to survive WW2 are also likely to be a bit more "airy" due to climate in the region. Newer constructions which aren't being traditional (paper walls), are likely more fastidious in how their air systems/exchanges are handled. Again, in large part due to their climate, but also due to their close proximity to "ground zero" for so many of the dangerous viral outbreaks(meaning air cleaners for the purpose of "public health" have been a consideration there since at least the first SARS outbreaks 15+ years ago; plus the brown cloud).

Meanwhile in a lot of the rest of the world, we have 100+ year old buildings that were built to keep the heat in during winter, which means airflow isn't great to start with. Our newer buildings also had a tendency to "keep the air inside" because of slightly misguided energy efficiency goals until we caught a clue during the 1990s... But even then, while we did start building with air exchangers becoming a consideration, it was only to the extent of keeping the air from from becoming stale/unhealthy due to build up of other assorted nasties, not viral loading.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3845 on: December 11, 2021, 12:08:56 AM »
Not sure if this is relevant either, but there's a significant amount of Japanese people who like to just stay in, and from what I've read they seem to have a large amount of shut-ins. I imagine if they have less of a 'going out' culture than Americans and Europeans do maybe that would also contribute.

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3846 on: December 12, 2021, 11:33:21 AM »
I love how everybody is acting all surprised and scratching their heads in astonished bewilderment wondering what could be the cause of all of this success.

See this map of countries that have full masking?

https://masks4all.co/what-countries-require-masks-in-public/

It isn't the masking.

Huh, who would have ever suspected that macro covid trends appear to completely ignore masking policies? If only there had been even a smidge of data to support that.

Meanwhile here in Oregon, they are passing a *permanent* indoor mask mandate because, Sciencetm. Totally never saw that coming /s

A year ago I was (naively) hoping that intelligent people would prevail and realize that eliminating "cases" was a fool's errand. Instead, federal and local authorities have by proving their policies have no limiting principles. Don't believe me? Look up the "until metrics A and B reach levels X and Y" parameters for local covid mandates and policies. Pro-tip, they don't exist.

Do what we say, until we tell you not to. Don't worry your silly little head about data, we're here to keep you Safetm

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3847 on: December 12, 2021, 01:32:10 PM »
I'm going to admit that I can't explain it with certainty but I've been to Japan and I've been to a few other countries and my general experience tells me that just because you have a rule in most countries doesn't mean people follow it or that even when they do follow it, sometimes sincerely and to the best of their natural ability, that they do it well. The Japanese have an attention to detail, competency, and general willingness to follow the rules that some other societies don't, including ours, like with Seinfeld and the car reservation. Taking the reservation is the easy part. It's holding the reservation that's the trick. Making masking rules is one thing but people actually following them correctly is another.

Looking at South Korea, they seem to be doing similarly well to Japan. The winter Covid spike they are experiencing is bringing them up to an average of 57 deaths per day with a population of over 51 million. Even when they were doing well they kept their masks on.



https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/south-korea-plots-course-scrapping-covid-curbs-by-early-2022-2021-10-25/

"The scheme begins next Monday and is due to run until Feb. 20, by when all distancing curbs will be scrapped except for mask-wearing mandates, a government health panel said.

South Korea has been largely successful in managing the pandemic without the lockdowns and death rates seen in many other parts of the world, largely through intensive testing, tracing, distancing and masks."

-------------------------------------------------------

"A year ago I was (naively) hoping that intelligent people would prevail and realize that eliminating "cases" was a fool's errand."

Well if the goal is to just spread it around as much as possible because masks won't ever be 100% effective then by all means take them off. It might end the pandemic sooner even if it kills hundreds of thousands more Americans who would have lived with masks but that's assuming all that purposeful spreading doesn't facilitate its mutation into something worse which though granted isn't how it normally plays out  sometimes happens anyway regardless of our expectations, hopes, knocking on wood and crossing our fingers. Delta showed us that playing that game with this virus is a risky proposition.

Speaking of cultural differences, another difference is that the Japanese venerate their elderly while America extends its throw-away society mentality and disposable culture to them as Cuomo made all too clear in New York's nursing homes. Their culture would wear a mask to protect their elderly. The Japanese look at their elderly and are grateful to the sacrifices and investments made by them to build the society they have. We look at our elderly and shake our fists in rage, blaming them for all the problems we see. Our culture even before covid would have random youths walk up to an elderly person on the street and knock them out as a game. Wear a mask to save them? Preposterous.

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3848 on: December 13, 2021, 11:39:03 AM »
I've done a lot of self-reflection around masks, trying to determine the "why" I objected to much of it. Initially, I was certain that 99% of my personal objections were based on simply chafing at the idea of being told what to place over my face and the other authoritarian aspects of mask policies.

As I read all the conflicting studies and the stream of misinformation by our experts, I became more skeptical.

The director of the CDC (Walensky) recently said that "the evidence is clear" that masks reduce your risk of infection by "more than 80 percent". Such a risk reduction would be higher than what the vaccines themselves provide. People have since asked for the source of this 80% figure, but no source has been provided. Propaganda vs wise counsel.

This was also clear way back when Fauci lied (for our own good) about masks being useless. One can debate motivations, but it's clear the folks at the CDC are fine fabricating facts if they believe it's for the greater good, and so skepticism around masks seems fairly well placed.

I also believe these two things can be simultaneously true: 1. Masks when properly used can prevent droplets and reduce individual viral transmission in enclosed environments. 2. Broad mask mandates for a variety of reasons do not appear to have direct and reliable benefits with regards to macro case trends.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3849 on: December 13, 2021, 11:49:31 AM »
ScottF,

I think one of the issues is that mask usage is as good as the users. We were talking about Japan, and maybe another factor there is they will fastidiously and correctly use a mask, making sure the nose aperture is closed, etc. The people in America most likely to be either against masks, or else to just not care that much about others even if they wear them, is they won't be careful with the mask, will remove it all the time, will wear it under their nose, won't fix it when it 'falls down', etc. So regardless of how effective masks might be in theory they won't do much if people are acting like idiots. And this was actually one of my early objections to mask mandates (like summer 2020), that whether or not they could be helpful, social distancing works for sure and is a no brainer when avoiding getting infected by someone, compared to masks which require user compliance AND competence, and as well are only partically effective. And then there's the issue of all the people who used to feel like they could just approach you normally, "I'm wearing a mask, what's the problem??" People are dolts, and if they don't understand the messaging then the bodies in charge better be damn sure the messaging is consistent and clear.