coronavirus

[jc44]

Cherry - do you believe that Trump would have kept mask mandates in place for longer than Biden? He certainly didn't appear to have any fondness for wearing them...

[cherrypoptart]

I think Trump might have kept them in place if only because the backlash would have been brutal if he dropped them and what happened with the delta surge under Biden happened under Trump. And if he did drop them I believe the Democrats would have opposed him 100% all the way down the line so at least in Democrat controlled states there would have been more support for masking with Democrat governors keeping their mask policies in place if only to spite Trump. The difference in state policies would have given us better evidence about the effectiveness of masking too. All the things I'm saying about Biden the Democrats would have been saying about Trump. Delusionally optimistic. Early victory lap. Mission accomplished moment. Guilty of mass murder. May as well throw racist in there too since the deaths are disproportionately not just elderly but also minority.

"Approximately 97.9 out of every 100,000 African Americans have died from COVID-19, a mortality rate that is a third higher than that for Latinos (64.7 per 100,000), and more than double that for whites (46.6 per 100,000) and Asians (40.4 per 100,000)."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7762908/#:~:text=Approximately%2097.9%20out%20of%20every,Asians%20(40.4%20per%20100%2C000).

-------------------------------------------------

One thing to wonder about is the what if scenario... what if we had kept masks instead of Biden dropping them? Obviously we'll never know but things were going very, very well. Deaths were down into the three hundred range, about where they are now. If we had kept masks could we be looking at "only" dozens of death a day instead of hundreds? I bet we could. The combination of masks and vaccines would have made a huge difference over the vaccine only approach. I'm sure Biden didn't cause all of those deaths and a lot of people would have died even with masks and vaccines, but Biden is certainly largely responsible for the difference which is hundreds of thousands of lives and with long covid the health of millions more.

In the end what Trump might have done can be speculated on but we know what Biden did and we have a pretty good idea of what it cost us.

Probably for the tenth time too, this isn't necessarily mask mandates. Japan technically doesn't have mask mandates as I understand it. But their government says it's the right thing for everyone to do and people do it. I don't even believe in the authority of the federal government to issue a blanket wide national mask mandate. That's up to the states. But the right thing to do would have been to keep encouraging people, vaxxed and unvaxxed alike, to mask up at least until we were sure the vaccinated people don't spread covid the way the optimists mistakenly assumed they didn't. Biden's great unmasking was all based on a lie. If he had known the vaccinated still spread covid would he have made the same call? And when he found out they did why didn't he adapt to the reality? That's just a failure of leadership and Biden is the leader, not Trump.

[jc44]

I think you overestimate the degree of backlash. A non-trivial section of the Republican party thought masks were silly to begin with and I've yet to be convinced that Trump ever cared in the slightest about mollifying any Democrats (calling them names doesn't count).

[NobleHunter]

These days, Republicans seem to take backlash as a vindication rather than an indictment.

[cherrypoptart]

I'm not talking about Republican backlash for Trump dropping masks. Obviously they'd be all for it. I'm talking about Democrat backlash if Trump dropped masks that when Biden did it was only absent because he was a Democrat.

That backlash would have taken the form of Democrats calling for continued masking including Democrat governors and mayors keeping their mask mandates in place with the liberal press sallying forth with experts waxing scientifically about the necessity to continue masking and as time goes on the numbers will tell the tale because either the places that masked would see lower death rates or they wouldn't and then at least we'd have some idea of how effective masks are or are not and what difference it makes in how many people are hospitalized, die, and maybe even get long covid.

That would be worth knowing regardless of anything else.

Now we can look at the difference between Japan and America to maybe get an idea of what difference a mask makes but there are confounding variables. Still, it looks like they make a huge difference. And if we still decide to take the masks off we should at least have an idea of what the cost will be. Biden basically told us there wouldn't be any cost. If he had said it's going to cost us a few hundred thousand lives and people said yeah that's fine then so be it. People are rightfully upset about medical billing that isn't upfront. Well what Biden sold us didn't have the costs made clear either. And when they finally became clear he basically said no refunds.

[jc44]

I really don't think that you can compare Japan's and the US's covid stats and say "the only thing that made this difference was masks". The cultural differences add up to more than that.

[cherrypoptart]

I understand the cultural differences but my belief is that the masks are the overwhelming factor in the difference between the American covid experience and Japan's.

I've run these numbers before and I'll run them again to see how they change over time.

1,130,000 to 72,395 with populations of 331,900,000 and 125,700,000.

So if we had their death rate we have 191,153 dead and if they had our death rate they are at 427,963.

They saved 355,568 people with masks and we lost 938,847 without them.

Of course there are confounding variables so we'll never know for sure. They are thinner with less comorbidities and a better diet but they are also older, more densely populated, smoke more, never locked down and never shut down.

If a few governors had kept masks on we might have a better idea of their effectiveness but the Republican governors didn't want to and the Democrat governors followed the leader.

I've seen the studies that say the masks don't work but they are honest enough to admit that part of the reason is because people purposefully undermine and sabotage their effectiveness every chance they get. In Japan we see the results a good faith, competent masking effort produces.

Japan may be about to give us an idea of the difference a mask makes as they relax and let their guard down. We'll see.

[jc44]

I think I'm just going to have to go with respecting your views but thinking you are wrong here. FWIW having done a little stats trawling the UK (where I am) has similar death rates (per unit of population) to the US though more variable, but if I pick the Netherlands (who were very relaxed about the whole thing) then they've low single digit deaths/day for the last few months, tending towards almost zero now. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/ and even allowing for the fact they only have a population of 17ish million that is way down on the UK or the US. Of course they (and Japan) may have different standards for what constitutes a "covid death" to the UK / US - that standard is know to vary quite widely between countries.

[cherrypoptart]

The point is that the masks save lives. How many is something we'll never know.

We can be as certain as we can be of anything that Joe Biden got thousands of vaccinated Americans killed when he told them it was now okay for them to take off their masks and they did it when it wasn't. These were the good and responsible people who had faith in their government and their leader, who after being assured it was safe did what they were told to do and paid the ultimate price for it because their trust was betrayed.

[msquared]

Where do you find evidence that thousands of vaccinated people died in the US?

[Fenring]

Where do you find evidence that thousands of vaccinated people died in the US?

It wouldn't seem strange that this many vaccinated did die, but the contention isn't merely that they did but that this can be traced directly to unmasking, and specifically people who wouldn't have unmasked except for what Biden said.

[Tom]

We can be as certain as we can be of anything that Joe Biden got thousands of vaccinated Americans killed when he told them it was now okay for them to take off their masks and they did it when it wasn't.

I honestly don't know how you can engage in this sort of zero-sum moral calculus and still vote Republican, cherry.

[Wayward Son]

That's because it has nothing to do with deaths per se.  It has to do with people dying from Biden's mistakes.

Cherry doesn't care how many actually die from Covid or from anyone else's mistakes.

[jc44]

No, I think I'm going to stand up for Cherry here. Cherry has been absolutely 100% behind masks from the word go - I honestly believe that he would has been quite vociferous in his condemnation of unmasking even if directly dictated by Trump (and there is no doubt in my mind that Trump would have ordered the same but sooner). The language might have been a bit softer or using words like "wrongly advised" but he'd have been against it.

[NobleHunter]

100% behind masks but hardly any words for the people leading the charge against using masks. If it weren't for the GOP and those further right making it a culture war thing, a lot more people might be wearing masks.

[Tom]

He's pretty good at being silently disappointed in Republicans.

[rightleft22]

100% behind masks but hardly any words for the people leading the charge against using masks. If it weren't for the GOP and those further right making it a culture war thing, a lot more people might be wearing masks.

being against masks and vaccines is something that both the far right and far left have in common.
One of the reasoned response to any future pandemics is going to be hard for the GOP or DNC to implement 
its going to be years till any meaningful (helpful) retrospective on what was learned, what when well, what didn't so that next time we do better will rise above the noise.

[NobleHunter]

That may be true but the US far left is a bunch of people arguing on twitter.

The far right is present in every level of government and used to be in the Presidency.

[cherrypoptart]

I did call out the Republicans on masks but if it wasn't as harshly it's not because they weren't completely wrong but because there's only so much utility, and not much at that, at being upset with people for being true to their nature. That's just who a lot of the Republicans are, against masks even if it means more deaths. They are the "give my face freedom or give me death" people. And that's for the ones who think the masks may do some good. There's a large number who don't believe the masks do any good at all and can point you to a number of studies along with a number of medical "experts" including Fauci and the Surgeon General warning people against them: “Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS!” the surgeon general, Jerome M. Adams, said in a tweet on Saturday morning. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if health care providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”

So how are Biden and the Democrats any different and why should they be held to a different or higher standard?

Well, Biden and the Democrats believed in the effectiveness of face masks, especially N-95s worn correctly. So when Biden said to take them off it wasn't because he thought they were ineffective and it wasn't because he believed that freedom of the face was more important that the right to life. He went against his own nature and everything he stood for up to that point and so did all of the Democrats who silently or even enthusiastically followed him. Disagree with the Republicans all day long, and I do, but at least there is an internal logic operating there. There was no logic in what Biden did, only a false and unrealistic hope that reality and covid quickly dashed because it was delusional all along. He could have waited another month to get results about the vaccine effectiveness at preventing spread and Republican controlled states removing their masks would have provided that evidence. He jumped the gun and it was pure folly.

Anyway, the question isn't so much why a Republican would be scolding a Democrat more than Republicans. Again, that's just the nature of people. That's too be expected. The question is why Democrats are so quick to give a fellow Democrat a pass when does something all of them had said would be dangerously foolish? Obviously, I answered my own question. Again, it's just in their nature. And all is right with the world, everyone acting according to their nature again. Predictability is nice.

I guess that's another part of why what Biden did was so upsetting. Nobody predicted it. Even Democrats were surprised. Dumbfounded. Flabbergasted. Outright discombobulated. It threw me for a loop too and still does.

[Wayward Son]

Thank you for clarifying your position, cherry.

So it still was not because masks save people.  It is because Republicans have a better internal logic than Democrats do.  It doesn't matter whether Republicans are right or wrong about masks; it is about them being consistent.  And even if they are absolutely wrong--as you seem to believe--and convincing people or enforcing their beliefs kill who-knows-how-many people, it doesn't matter, so long as they are true to their beliefs.  It's...acceptable. 

Which may explain why Democrats are not so outraged at Biden's actions as at some Republicans.  Because although the best way to handle the pandemic may have changed throughout the pandemic--which is why the recommendations changed, such as the one you mentioned--they were still based on the judgement of educated and knowledgeable people who had devoted their lives to studying and understanding pandemics and the best way to handle them, rather than the emotional reactions of ignorant people who were more worried about their businesses and their "freedom" than about saving lives, and who take no responsibility for being right or wrong.  (You know, the people you so blithely give a pass to. )  And while the experts (no quotes necessary) may not have always been right or even right at all, and the ignoramuses may not always have been wrong, or even have been right, the good money--the ones most likely to have been right--were the experts.  And Biden, for the most part, listened to those experts, instead of contradicting them and suggesting they should look into using bleach to fight the virus in people's lungs.  (Because, after all, he is such a stable genius, that he could think of an idea that never occurred to these experts who have spent their lives studying these diseases.  )

(Pop quiz--are you smarter than Trump?  Can you name a single reason why using bleach in the lungs could be a bad idea?  Be honest now. )

So when it comes to outrage, Democrats won't be as outraged by someone who basically supports the science, although he may have made a misstep (what did the CDC recommend at that time, anyway?) than by a bunch of elitists ignoramuses that believed they are smarter than a majority of educated doctors and even want to punish those doctors for disagreeing with them.    I mean, wouldn't you forgive a doctor who is knowledgeable and may make mistakes than some jackass who thinks he knows everything without having thoroughly studied it?  Which one do you think is being more irresponsible?

[cherrypoptart]

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden on Wednesday said it's a “big mistake” for states to lift pandemic restrictions, calling it a result of "Neanderthal thinking."

In brief remarks before meeting with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to discuss ways to fight cancer, Biden said it's important to listen to the recommendations of scientists, especially as the nation is on the cusp of turning things around with the coronavirus vaccines.

"The last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking that, in the meantime, everything's fine, take off your mask, forget it," he said. "It still matters."
"I think it's a big mistake," Biden said. "I hope everybody's realized by now these masks make a difference."

...

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/03/joe-biden-texas-other-states-lifting-mask-rules-neanderthal-thinking/6907426002/


---------------------------------------------

So there's that. And there's this about two and a half months later:

"If you’re fully vaccinated and can take your mask off, you have earned the right to do something that Americans are known for all around the world: greeting others with a smile. With a smile. So, it is a good day for the country."

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/great-day-america-biden-touting-cdcs-eased-mask/story?id=77673806


--------------------------------------------

So let's be clear here that I am agreeing with Biden, the Biden two and a half months before. Biden took the Republicans out behind the woodshed for doing the same thing he did only a couple of months later. How am I the bad guy here?

On the science, did the metrics really change that much in that time frame? Was there really solid evidence that taking off the masks wouldn't be as dangerous and irresponsible as Biden insisted it was just a couple of months earlier?

When Biden did his great unmasking on May 13th of 2021, the 7 day death average was in the 600 range. On March 3rd when Biden was agreeing with me the 7 day death average was 1777. Is 600 really the magic number to take off masks? Then why didn't they go back on when deaths spiked up above 2000 a few months later proving the mistake?

I suppose there are two separate issues here.

One is the gall of a Republican criticizing a Democrat for agreeing with Republicans.

And the other is setting all of that aside, was the decision Biden's decision at that time right or wrong?

[LetterRip]

Cherry,

it was a mistake to remove masks without being vaccinated.  Once you were vaccinated - with the known variants - the data showed it was safe to cease masking.  It isn't Biden's fault that a new strain with a completely novel method of action that could evade vaccination evolved.  It was unprecedented in the history of our knowledge of viruses.

He made the most informed decision at the time the decision was made.

And the other is setting all of that aside, was the decision Biden's decision at that time right or wrong?

It was a correct decision based on the information at that time.  I would have preferred it have been based on regional vaccination rates rather than personal - but the idea of ceasing masking once vaccinated was in line with the evidence.

[yossarian22c]

Cherry,

it was a mistake to remove masks without being vaccinated.  Once you were vaccinated - with the known variants - the data showed it was safe to cease masking.  It isn't Biden's fault that a new strain with a completely novel method of action that could evade vaccination evolved.  It was unprecedented in the history of our knowledge of viruses.

He made the most informed decision at the time the decision was made.

And the other is setting all of that aside, was the decision Biden's decision at that time right or wrong?

It was a correct decision based on the information at that time.  I would have preferred it have been based on regional vaccination rates rather than personal - but the idea of ceasing masking once vaccinated was in line with the evidence.

Agree and for the most part the vaccinated didn't die. Biden kept the masking mandate in place until everyone who wanted a vaccine could get one. And the downside of removing masks for the vaccinated wasn't that they started dying in large numbers its that the masks came off and the unvaccinated got creamed again. Plenty of vaccinated people got sick, but almost all of them lived. Delta was bad because vaccinated people got sick enough to spread it. So masks would have helped if Biden had known a new highly contagious variant was going to pop up in a couple months where vaccinated people would get sick enough to spread the virus again. But Biden couldn't know the future, keeping masks on would have been the more cautious approach but it wasn't the slam scientific/medical consensus that it was before everyone who wanted a vaccine had one.

Compare that to Trump who basically refused to wear a mask anywhere. Even when taking a joy ride around Walter Ried in a car with his SS agents. Or Desantos or other Republican officials who tried to stop schools from having mask mandates. Biden just said, when the majority of medical opinions agreed, that its okay to take masks off after being vaccinated. Delta changed the science on that a couple months after, but it didn't make his statement inherently dangerous or reckless.

[msquared]

Lowest weekly death rate since the start of the Pandemic.  1,706 for the week. Just under 250 or so a day and going down weekly for the past 2 months.

[cherrypoptart]

I liked this explanation of the Japanese mindset. These are some people who get it.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-do-japanese-wear-masks-outside-though-science-says-otsuka

"For most people, wearing masks is about protecting themselves from the illness but for Japanese, it is about not passing the illness to others."

-------------------------------------------------------

I don't know where the line is for calling it a day on the pandemic but we are doing much better now. I'm still taking my queue from Japan though. I'll stop wearing my mask when they stop wearing theirs indoors. They are still wearing them outside though, something I never did, so it may be a while yet. That's a government I can respect a lot at least on Covid. They never lied to their people about masks, trading the short term gain of giving them to medical professionals in exchange for the long term pain of "but even Fauci said they don't work." When their government says it's reasonably safe to take off your masks now that's when I'll believe it.

Having said that, it seems like most young and healthy people should be fine as it is so if they feel alright about their own health getting back to normal that's pretty understandable. Of course, that was pretty much the case all along anyway. I always get back to the Japanese caring a lot more about their elderly compared to us. That's not going to change any time soon, not for either country.

And if you say well if you like the country so much go live there well I'd be glad to except for one problem: my wife hates living in Japan. As a white guy especially if you are very polite and reasonably familiar with the culture you are basically treated like royalty. The closest you might come to it in America is at Chick-Fil-A. "It's my pleasure to serve you." But if you're a Japanese lady like my wife there's a lot more to it. But me liking their culture a lot and she loving ours certainly is good for the relationship.

[rightleft22]

"For most people, wearing masks is about protecting themselves from the illness but for Japanese, it is about not passing the illness to others."

When masks were first presented it was about protecting others from you and that in protection others you were protecting your self. In the West's were individuality and the notion of 'freedom' are closely linked its not that surprising that the part about protecting others was dismissed. Once the issue became tribal the noise was never going to correct that notion of 'freedom' being all about 'me'. 

[Mynnion]

Funny how the Christian Right who proclaim to love everyone are those who yelled loudest about wearing masks.  You'd think that loving your neighbor would encourage those to them to think of the welfare of others.  Wearing a mask is annoying but a small sacrifice to keep others safe.

[msquared]

You know that the FL Surgeon General advised young men against getting the Covid 19 vaccine due to a small chance of increased risk of cardio vascular death left out a part of the report that said that catching Covid increased that risk even more.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/report-florida-officials-cut-key-150016558.html

[msquared]

Well the CDC tracking of Covid related info is going into a new phase with the end of the emergency declaration.  However, they still have data from early May and for the week of May 6 total weekly deaths were down to 323.

Hopefully it will keep dropping as we go through the summer months.  Covid is now endemic, like the flu. My guess is it will have a steady, but higher, rate of yearly deaths, and that we will get yearly boosters, just like the flu.

[cherrypoptart]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

"As of May 11, 2023, COVID Data Tracker is no longer reporting aggregate cases and deaths, COVID-19 Community Levels, COVID-19 Community Transmission Levels, or COVID-19 Electronic Laboratory Reporting (CELR) data."

It looks like Biden is taking Trump's advice:

"If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any," Trump asserted.

https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_trump-if-we-stop-testing-wed-have-fewer-cases/6191165.html

And we get crickets on how there have been more Covid deaths under Biden than under Trump, almost twice as many so even the lower time frame for Trump doesn't help Biden much, nor the fact that Biden had both masks and vaccines and decided to throw the masks away.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-pandemics-public-health-coronavirus-pandemic-f6e976f34a6971c889ca8a4c5e1c0068

‘Shameful’: US virus deaths top 400K as Trump leaves office

If weekly deaths stay in the 300 range that is a vast improvement but still not quite like the flu because of long covid whereas long flu isn't really a thing. And it looks like we want to bury our heads in the sand for this upcoming election and not know if covid deaths start ticking up or a new more dangerous variant takes off because that would of course make Biden look bad. We could play it safe and keep our eye on the ball but it looks like we'll instead declare victory again and dance a jig just like Biden did before the delta wave hit. One of these times Biden will actually be right, like a broken clock. It'll just be pure luck though.

[msquared]

There were move Covid deaths under Biden since he was President for a larger portion of the pandemic than Trump was.  Biden inherited the mess from Trump.