Author Topic: Who’s got it?  (Read 3401 times)

Crunch

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Who’s got it?
« on: March 14, 2020, 08:51:03 AM »
Who’s gotten Wuhan Virus? If none of us yet, someone will soon. Any guesses on first?

It would be interesting to hear a first hand account and also if you need some help. Can’t do much for you west Coast guys but maybe if you’re near me I could at least deliver some chicken soup.  8)


rightleft22

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2020, 06:09:41 PM »
Interesting that you use to id the virus as Wuhan Virus
Kind of points to what your prime "news" source is
 :'(

JoshuaD

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2020, 01:11:55 AM »
Still doing fine here in NJ.  I played a round of golf today and saw some friends, then spent the night playing video games and watching a movie.  I'm isolating myself as much as I reasonably can without going overboard.

I don't know anyone personally who has been infected.  Hoping I never do.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2020, 03:35:08 AM »
Idaho didn't even have a confirmed case until yesterday, and of the two confirmed cases as of this afternoon are hundreds of miles away from me just yet. I'm sure there are unconfirmed cases in my neck of the woods, part of the rumor mill I'm indirectly tapped into indicates they have a couple cases in the area they're still waiting for results back on so it is just a matter of time I'm sure.

Edit: Just checked a local news site, confirmed case about 90 miles from me reported as of about 5 hours ago.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 03:41:38 AM by TheDeamon »

Crunch

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2020, 09:07:18 AM »
Interesting that you use to id the virus as Wuhan Virus
Kind of points to what your prime "news" source is
 :'(

I picked that up off Twitter. I tend to use whichever one I heard last and Coronavirus is a pain to tho on.a mobile device. . Personally, I’d prefer King Flu.

Crunch

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2020, 09:12:24 AM »
Still doing fine here in NJ.  I played a round of golf today and saw some friends, then spent the night playing video games and watching a movie.  I'm isolating myself as much as I reasonably can without going overboard.

I don't know anyone personally who has been infected.  Hoping I never do.

I might know someone that had it about 3-4 weeks ago. She went to Canada on a business trip and swung back home through the Florida office. She got really sick, flu like with a really high fever, perfect fit for this, and all 4 people she met in Florida became ill as well. But for 2 of them it was very mild. Seems consistent with how this works or maybe it’s just the regular flu since it’s a typical flu season. Hard to tell unless she got tested.

Crunch

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2020, 10:57:10 AM »
Turns out, I know someone that tested positive. He's in Europe and had gone skiing in Italy a couple of weeks ago. He became symptomatic last Thursday/Wednesday evening. He reports he feels pretty good now and is working from home today, expecting to do a full work day.

TheDrake

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2020, 02:16:27 PM »
Don't know anybody personally yet. BTW, Breitbart is now calling it the "China Virus".

JoshuaD

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2020, 10:38:15 PM »
Turns out, I know someone that tested positive. He's in Europe and had gone skiing in Italy a couple of weeks ago. He became symptomatic last Thursday/Wednesday evening. He reports he feels pretty good now and is working from home today, expecting to do a full work day.

Similar story for me.  A friend went skiing and caught it from her family, who had caught it from some diplomat at a gala apparently. She's in quarantine right now.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2020, 01:51:03 AM »
Don't know anybody impacted yet, sister is a police dispatcher, they've already effectively banned the officers from dispatch, don't need them getting sick.

Have a sister-in-law who is a nurse in the maternity ward at a hospital in the Boise area, which does have known cases at this time, just none needing to be in the hospital yet. They setup screening tents outside the hospital today.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2020, 09:48:12 PM »
Well, Idaho now has 23 confirmed cases at this time, 16 of them in Blaine County home of the Sun Valley Ski Resort.

To quote wiki on the area for the unknowing:
Quote
The term "Sun Valley" is used more generally to speak of the region surrounding the city, including the neighboring city of Ketchum and the Wood River Valley area winding south to Hailey and Bellevue. The region has been a seasonal home to the rich and famous since first being brought to public attention by Ernest Hemingway in the late 1930s.

There are a lot of Hollyood "A listers" with vacation homes in that area.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2020, 02:43:53 AM »
Well, I have a brother who has now been placed on sick leave by his employer because he had a cough. He was sent to get tested, but they refused to test him as they are only testing the recent travel(to/from areas where covid19 is known to be present) and close contact with people who have it crowd.

He's in Northern Idaho and with 6 cases in the Spokane, WA area, and one confirmed case in Northern Idaho, they're simply not testing for community spread at this time. So in the meantime, he's now burning sick days and no way to prove or disprove he has a covid-19 infection so 3 weeks off the job for him, where work-from-home is not an option.

Crunch

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2020, 07:37:15 AM »
He should use those three weeks to find a new employer.

yossarian22c

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2020, 10:23:21 AM »
Well, I have a brother who has now been placed on sick leave by his employer because he had a cough. He was sent to get tested, but they refused to test him as they are only testing the recent travel(to/from areas where covid19 is known to be present) and close contact with people who have it crowd.

He's in Northern Idaho and with 6 cases in the Spokane, WA area, and one confirmed case in Northern Idaho, they're simply not testing for community spread at this time. So in the meantime, he's now burning sick days and no way to prove or disprove he has a covid-19 infection so 3 weeks off the job for him, where work-from-home is not an option.

It sucks for him but probably the right decision by his employer. Better would be if they reimbursed his sick days at the end of this. But the reports from Europe are that the virus is highly contagious at the stage where people just have a cough.

yossarian22c

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2020, 10:29:50 AM »
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/19/818318555/people-with-mild-symptoms-can-be-coronavirus-spreaders-european-researchers-warn

Quote
People infected with the coronavirus can spread it easily, even if they're not yet experiencing severe symptoms of the disease, according to virologists watching the pandemic unfold in Europe.

"In this infection, we see very high levels of virus in the upper airway, in the nose and throat," says Marion Koopmans, head of the department of virus science at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands, who is involved with that nation's public health response to the outbreak. Those high levels of the virus mean that the coronavirus can infect others "the moment you start to sneeze, you start to cough," she says.

To go with what I said above about the rapid spread.

LetterRip

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2020, 07:54:16 PM »
A friends sister and her sister's husband just tested positive.  They (my friend and her husband) haven't seen the sister for 9 days, and aren't showing symptoms so they probably don't have it.  I don't know if the local authorities will do a trace and test.  I'll be isolating for awhile and avoiding the elderly I've been helping out for awhile till I'm definitely in the clear - just in case. I've let friends know to put them in their prayer circle, etc.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2020, 08:31:07 PM »
Well, Idaho now has 23 confirmed cases at this time, 16 of them in Blaine County home of the Sun Valley Ski Resort.

19 cases in the Sun Valley area now. Idaho is  now up to 32 known cases. It's now known to be within 50 miles of where I am.

Sun Valley(Blaine County) is also now under a shelter in place order.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 08:33:35 PM by TheDeamon »

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2020, 12:25:56 AM »
Quote
Idaho Coronavirus Info
@IdahoCOVID19
Central District Health is asking anyone with recent travel to Blaine County in the past two weeks (March 8-22) to shelter in place — after three Ada County residents and one Valley County resident tested positive for COVID-19, and confirmed travel and time spent in Blaine Co.

Blaine county held at 21 cases from yesterday, but they get credit for the above mention 4 additional infections in my book. 47 known cases in total as of 5 hours ago.

oldbrian

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2020, 11:32:52 AM »
We had a service tech in for one of our machines at work early last week.  He lives outside of Philly.  He said that all of the early cases in the area were the 'rich and famous' areas.  That basically if you were rich enough to travel socially, it hit your neighborhood first.

That would line up with Sun Valley being a hotspot.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2020, 02:57:25 PM »
Just had 2 cases confirmed in my own county, probably as a result of the state advisory regarding testing for those with recent travel through Blaine County. Two males in their 30's with "a history of travel" both presenting mild symptoms and now quarantined at home. Luckily Sun Valley shut down on March 14th, but unluckily, the 14th appears to have been a day or two too late.

Wayward Son

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2020, 08:54:42 PM »
One case confirmed at my work, with another rumored.

They closed the building and are disinfecting it.  No one allowed in for a day or two.  Everyone working from home.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2020, 11:00:14 PM »
One of the 2 cases in my county involved someone who worked at the Federal Building. They've shut it down for the next 2 weeks and gave asked the people who work there to self-quarantine.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2020, 12:47:24 AM »
Quote
Idaho Coronavirus Info
@IdahoCOVID19
Central District Health is asking anyone with recent travel to Blaine County in the past two weeks (March 8-22) to shelter in place — after three Ada County residents and one Valley County resident tested positive for COVID-19, and confirmed travel and time spent in Blaine Co.

Blaine county held at 21 cases from yesterday, but they get credit for the above mention 4 additional infections in my book. 47 known cases in total as of 5 hours ago.

3 days later, Idaho's "official" tracker says 123 cases, 52 of which are in Blaine county, with another 40-ish near Boise. One of the unofficial trackers one of the local stations showed tonight is reporting just over 130 cases statewide, 65 of which are in Blaine county. So 1.5% of the state's population is still very determined to comprise 50% of the covid19 cases.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2020, 02:44:35 AM »
https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html

"New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity"

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.


Kasandra

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2020, 06:06:31 AM »
That's really good news, but their government is still warning of massive numbers of infections that will overwhelm their medical system.  Both can be true.

Crunch

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #25 on: March 26, 2020, 08:27:53 AM »
One can hope, amirite?

Kasandra

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #26 on: March 26, 2020, 09:22:13 AM »
One can hope, amirite?

Your kind of partisanship doesn't belong in open discussions.  You try to poison every thread with hate.

LetterRip

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2020, 09:58:11 AM »
https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html

"New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity"

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

I've read the preprint - the arguement is that if you use pure mathematical modeling there are a number of Ro (infectiveness rate) and p (severe infection rates) that are consistent with the number deaths and severe infections.

If you assume a high Ro (2.75) and a low severity (.001 - 1 in 1000) then given the number of hospitalized people in the UK - then the infection started far sooner and it would imply that 40% of the population has already been infected.

However, that is completely inconsistent with other known data - namely that the actual severity rate seems to be 15-20%  (.15 ), the actual Ro seems to be closer to 2 (the range of estimates is from 1.5-5, but the better estimate methodologies are 1-5-2.5 and mostly cluster around 2), that there are geographic clusters of severity (at the city, and state/district level, as well as country level), that 'social distancing' measures and track and trace are effective in slowing the spread; and that regions with similar population sizes have vastly divergent severity (South Korea vs Italy); that the phylogenetics are completely incompatible with that fast a spread (the currently severely infected have similar enough genetic strains that the virus strains have recent similar ancestors - if it were the case of rapid spread - then severe cases would have much more divergent ancestors).

Given this information - it implies that at most about 3-5% of the UK population has been infected to date; and probably more in the range of .3-.5%.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 10:03:43 AM by LetterRip »

yossarian22c

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2020, 10:26:12 AM »
https://news.yahoo.com/oxford-study-suggests-millions-people-221100162.html

"New Oxford study suggests millions of people may have already built up coronavirus immunity"

The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

Agree with LetterRip's analysis above. This model isn't ready for publication.

What's the over/under on Trump citing this one study? Better than even odds he talks about it and then Fauci will have to walk the tightrope on a follow up trying to point out the flaws without calling Trump an idiot for mentioning it all.

wmLambert

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2020, 11:28:21 AM »
You mentioned it. Does that idiot label apply with equal opportunity?

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #30 on: March 27, 2020, 12:30:38 AM »
3 days later, Idaho's "official" tracker says 123 cases, 52 of which are in Blaine county, with another 40-ish near Boise. One of the unofficial trackers one of the local stations showed tonight is reporting just over 130 cases statewide, 65 of which are in Blaine county. So 1.5% of the state's population is still very determined to comprise 50% of the covid19 cases.

As of 4 hours ago, Idaho is at 189 confirmed cases, 3 deaths all of them men over the age of 60(1 over 60, 1 over 70, 1 over 80), it's currently unclear as to the existence of pre-existing conditions for 2 of them, but the one between 70 and 80 is confirmed to have had some.

Sun Valley still is holding at nearly half of the cases with 85 cases and two of the three deaths.

Ada(Boise) and Canyon(Nampe/Caldwell) have a combined 76 cases between them, and one of the deaths.

Next biggest hotspot is Kootenai county just across the state line from Spokane, Washington with 10 confirmed cases.  Nez Pierce county(Lewiston) has 4 cases, which I'd suspect may be tied back to the Casino located on the reservation there(and gamblers from the Spokane area) but that's purely conjecture.

Four counties have 2 confirmed cases each at this time. Eight counties are dealing with a single case each, and 27 counties have none. Starting to think much of the rest of my state may have dodged a bullet. Probably aided by the matter that most of the universities started canceling classes and switching to online only before Spring Break happened, so many of the out of area students didn't leave and come back. The resident students were likely to simply return home from living on campus and not travel (much) which helped to protect the university towns. If this whole ordeal had been delayed by two weeks(and I don't mean the response, I mean the entire thing) the story would likely be very different for the state, and a lot of the rest of the country.

Although a number of other states are reaping the other side of that proverbial whirlwind with regards to Spring Break.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 12:34:02 AM by TheDeamon »

DonaldD

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #31 on: March 27, 2020, 06:49:46 AM »
My friend's mother in law was diagnosed with it... which means her husband probably also has it - they're both in a care home, and both in their mid-90s.

My friend's husband has been in limited contact (the care home was shut to visitors after the first infection was confirmed) so...

yossarian22c

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #32 on: March 27, 2020, 02:38:30 PM »
I don't have it. In a city* where its spreading some. But the city I live in is largely urban sprawl and almost everyone commutes with cars. So despite the virus being here a couple weeks we haven't seen a huge explosion in cases. Schools have been closed for 2 weeks now. Restaurants (except for take out) for 1+ weeks. The number of new cases per day is already stabilizing, hoping we've dodged the worst. Our state has a large testing backlog so we'll continue to see cases rise but it seems like the population dynamics combined with some relatively early closings of schools and businesses are going to help my area avoid the NYC experience. Feeling a little hopeful about the local situation right now. A little concerned about the lack of broad based testing though. Tests are still being largely being rationed to first responders, medical staff, and people with severe symptoms. The testing bottleneck is loosening. But there are still reports of people who are likely infected not being tested because it doesn't provide a medical benefit, people are told to act like they are infected and sent home. The down side to this bottleneck is missing out on the public health benefits of identifying the full spread. Germany and South Korea have much broader testing and are showing much lower death rates than countries that have restricted testing to more critical cases. The broader based testing also helps them isolate and quarantine in a more targeted approach - as opposed to the shut it down Italy, the UK, and the US are following.

*city to me - But I grew up in a small town.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2020, 07:20:36 PM »
Blaine County, Idaho now has the second highest per capita infection rate in the United States with 93 cases as of an hour ago.

Only New York City is currently doing worse on a per capita basis.

wmLambert

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2020, 08:53:07 PM »
Blaine County, Idaho now has the second highest per capita infection rate in the United States with 93 cases as of an hour ago.

Only New York City is currently doing worse on a per capita basis.

Evidently, Blaine County is doing a bang-up job of testing. Many places have many people down with the flu who self-isolate and don't get tested at all.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #35 on: March 27, 2020, 09:26:15 PM »
Blaine has had reason to be testing. They had the first cases in the state(travel related), they had the first cases of community spread, and they've now had the first fatalities.

People with "recent travel" to areas where Covid19 was known to be had priority for testing at the onset, and Sun Valley in Blaine County is a (seasonal/vacation) home for a LOT of jet-setters.

So the jet-set crowd is tested, which then leads to those they'd been in contact with getting tested, as per standard guidelines at that time. Then people start getting sick enough in the community to warrant medical attention, which got them tested, and expanded the testing to include their own social circles. The "community spread" part also in turn leads to more liberal authority to test for it in the area. Which then allowed Blaine to surge well ahead of the rest of the state as the only location with community spread for over a week, until it was detected as happening in Boise once someone there became sick enough to need testing.

The eastern part of the state is still only contending with "travel related" cases, as nobody seems to have become sick enough with to both warrant testing just yet given the lack of evidence regarding "community spread" in the area, and actually come back with a positive test result.

Also of note, Idaho now has 4 deaths now, another person over the age of 80 with pre-existing conditions, but oddly they didn't seem to know the gender in the report I caught. It was a case in Northern Idaho.

Blaine is now up to 98 cases, 2 deaths.
Ada + Canyon county are now up to a combined 99 cases and 1 death, so the Boise Valley has now overtaken Blaine on the case count. Total count statewide is now at 230, so we doubled out count in 2 days, mostly due to results in the Boise Valley.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 09:28:24 PM by TheDeamon »

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #36 on: March 27, 2020, 09:54:27 PM »
A good writeup on Sun Valley's situation:

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241448211.html

Quote
...every year, thousands of skiers, outdoors enthusiasts and wealthy part-time residents with homes in New York, Seattle and Los Angeles flood the valley. From December to March, roughly 30,000 people from around the world usually land at the Friedman Memorial Airport in Hailey and visit restaurants, ski slopes and resorts.

Quote
Idaho’s first case of coronavirus was diagnosed in Ada County on March 13. The next day, the South Central Public Health District announced the first two confirmed cases in Blaine County. The district later indicated it believed a visitor transmitted the virus.

...

From there, Blaine County became the first area in Idaho to confirm community spread March 19, meaning coronavirus passed to people who did not travel to other outbreak areas or have contact with known cases. The same day, Gov. Little announced a deluge of 10 new COVID-19 cases in Blaine County and instituted the isolation — or shelter in place — order for the county.

(Note for the following section: The Wood River runs through the area known more widely as "Sun Valley." As "Sun Valley" actually is a Resort/town within the Wood River Valley of Blaine County that thanks to the Union Pacific Railroad back in the 1930's and 40's became a colloquialism for the entire area.)

Quote
Early in the month, events and gatherings in the Wood River Valley largely continued. The National Brotherhood of Skiers, a nonprofit that supports skiers of color, was in Sun Valley the first week of March for its Black Summit 2020 gathering. According to a Facebook post in a Brotherhood group, club officials said in a March 18 email that dozens who attended the Feb. 29-March 7 summit were ill, with five of those illnesses confirmed to be coronavirus.

“Whether they brought it to us or we gave it to them, there’s no way to know,” Russell said.

Blaine County still sees plenty of visitors in the winter months, in large part because of Sun Valley Resort and plentiful backcountry skiing options. Skiing has been touted as a potential link to COVID-19 infections in Austria and Mexico. Ski areas in California, Colorado and Utah have also seen high numbers of confirmed COVID-19.

“Even though skiing would seem like a low-risk activity since it’s outside, it’s probably an incredibly high-risk activity,” Russell said. “Skiers sit next to each other on chairlifts, sitting shoulder to shoulder, and then you turn and talk to the person and you’re on a chairlift for 15 minutes. We also have a gondola where people sit three to a row facing each other.

“It’s almost assured that if someone has the coronavirus and gets on the gondola or the chairlift with you, you are going to get it also,” Russell said. “Under normal circumstances, (strangers) don’t get that close to each other.”

Other aspects of ski tourism also could exacerbate coronavirus spread, he added.

“Everyone eats together in a fairly crowded lodge for lunch, and most (visitors) go out to eat every night. If somebody walks past your table and just exhales — they don’t even have to cough — there’s virus coming out,” Russell said.

Prudek, the local hospital spokeswoman, and Ketchum Mayor Neil Bradshaw also pointed to tourism as a major factor in the outbreak.

“It’s not really surprising that it hit a tourist area first,” Prudek said.

“In my mind, Ketchum is on the front line in Idaho regarding coronavirus,” Bradshaw said. “Why are we on the front line? Because we have tourists, we have second homes. We have continual flow in and out of our community. … We’ve gone full circle on that to become a community that is not encouraging travel (right now).”

The Blaine County Assessor’s Office estimates more than half of the county’s residential properties are second homes or rental properties. Just 43% of Blaine County homes received a homeowner’s exemption for a property they claimed was their primary residence. Assuming everyone who qualifies for a homeowner’s exemption applied, 7,917 Blaine County homes are not locals or full-time residents.

“People come here from all over the world,” Russell said. “Especially this time of the year. When I’m in the ER, I get people from New York, Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Seattle. Every week there’s people from those places. Most likely someone from an urban area or multiple people from urban areas came here and they just set it off.”

Probably a number of whom decided their vacation home in Sun Valley would be a great place to shelter at while this whole Covid19 thing blew over...

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2020, 07:06:13 PM »
My dad's first cousin's wife is an EMT, and now has a 102 degree fever(age wise, the cousin is comparable to my older siblings in age rather than my father). No confirmed Covid19 cases in their county as of yet, but they're in a county very close to Blaine County, so it's probably there.

Kasandra

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2020, 05:21:38 AM »
The number of positive tests and the rate of total cases has doubled in the last 4 days in Michigan.  There are now 4650 reported cases and 111 deaths in the state, with a rate of 2.3% fatalities.  We can assume that the number of cases is much higher, so the actual fatality rate is somewhat lower.  The vast majority of cases/deaths are in counties in and around Detroit, the poorest and blackest urban area in the state.  So far nobody I know has tested positive here.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2020, 06:10:51 AM »
My understanding was that there were some pretty wealthy communities nestled in among the squalor in the Greater Detroit area, and my drives through there in an 18 wheeler seemed to catch glimpses of that as well. Are you sure it isn't business class travelers having brought the virus back with them from their travels elsewhere?

Of course, I guess there are the poor souls working concessions at the Detroit Airport to consider as well.

But anecdotally, even though Idaho's total count is well behind the more populated states, it seems to be tracking pretty consistently with the 2% number of confirmed cases vs deaths, and the Health and Welfare stats they release every Friday is also tracking pretty consistently with a 15 to 20% hospitalization rate as well.

Although this also ignores the whole thing of their only testing recent travel/close contact with another person with a positive result, or cases with more extreme symptoms. So there quite possibly is a much larger base of infected population out there of a generally unknown size at this time. If it is 80/20 among those who have been able to test, it wouldn't be unreasonable to believe the number of unconfirmed cases is easily half again as large, if not larger. But a half-again increase in actual cases would be enough to mean the "real" death rate is 1% rather than 2.

Kasandra

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2020, 06:32:13 AM »
The most plausible speculation I've heard is the high rate is because DTW is an international Delta hub.  You can get non-stop flights to/from here to most major capitals in the world, with a lot of travel to major capitals in Europe.  The wealthy suburbs you mention aren't seeing high rates of infection, nor is Ann Arbor where I live, a wealthy college "town".  UM has over 40,000 students, with about half from out of state, mainly the east coast, China, Japan and India.

It is expected that the Detroit area infections and deaths will continue the steep climb for the next month or longer.  That is definitely due to the high population density factor.  Ann Arbor has a major university hospital and VA center.  They are both reorganizing their in-patient facilities to focus on the expected influx of overflow patients from the Detroit area. The university is also looking at converting dorms to COVID-19 ICU treatment centers.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2020, 02:30:54 PM »
Guess I should have checked the local news for another update after 6pm last night. As of 16 hours ago, the official case count was 267 statewide, with 6 deaths. No details on the 6th death, but the 5th death involved another male over the age of 60 with multiple preexisting conditions. So Idaho is just above a 2% death rate among confirmed cases.

wmLambert

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2020, 08:41:24 PM »
...Are you sure it isn't business class travelers having brought the virus back with them from their travels elsewhere?

Of course, I guess there are the poor souls working concessions at the Detroit Airport to consider as well.

Here in Detroit, the local news stations report the largest cases are in Detroit and Dearborn, and a few other cities. That is where the Large area-wide hospitals are. Dearborn is the largest middle-east immigrant locality in the nation. Perhaps they also have more overseas contact?

But then, again, it's not about the cases - it's about the testing. Now that most doctors have the new "toaster-sized" testing machines and adequate test kits, more cases will be counted.

TheDrake

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #43 on: March 29, 2020, 08:49:16 PM »
The most plausible speculation I've heard is the high rate is because DTW is an international Delta hub.  You can get non-stop flights to/from here to most major capitals in the world, with a lot of travel to major capitals in Europe.  The wealthy suburbs you mention aren't seeing high rates of infection, nor is Ann Arbor where I live, a wealthy college "town".  UM has over 40,000 students, with about half from out of state, mainly the east coast, China, Japan and India.

It is expected that the Detroit area infections and deaths will continue the steep climb for the next month or longer.  That is definitely due to the high population density factor.  Ann Arbor has a major university hospital and VA center.  They are both reorganizing their in-patient facilities to focus on the expected influx of overflow patients from the Detroit area. The university is also looking at converting dorms to COVID-19 ICU treatment centers.

Wouldn't that also apply to Atlanta though? Haven't heard much about that city.

Kasandra

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #44 on: March 29, 2020, 09:54:44 PM »
The population of Detroit is especially susceptible to large scale medical problems due to poverty, lack of adequate health care, drug addiction, poor diet (there were no grocery stores in the city of Detroit for over 10 years until recently), low hygiene and crowded living conditions.  The Governor just issued an order to turn water back on for residents who have had it turned off for months.  This isn't a new development; the city has been on its knees for decades.  Compared to other cities of comparable size in the US, it has higher than average prenatal and infant mortality, more diabetes and heart disease, higher rates of flu infection, etc....

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #45 on: March 30, 2020, 01:15:23 AM »
3 days later, Idaho's "official" tracker says 123 cases, 52 of which are in Blaine county, with another 40-ish near Boise. One of the unofficial trackers one of the local stations showed tonight is reporting just over 130 cases statewide, 65 of which are in Blaine county. So 1.5% of the state's population is still very determined to comprise 50% of the covid19 cases.

As of 4 hours ago, Idaho is at 189 confirmed cases, 3 deaths all of them men over the age of 60(1 over 60, 1 over 70, 1 over 80), it's currently unclear as to the existence of pre-existing conditions for 2 of them, but the one between 70 and 80 is confirmed to have had some.

Sun Valley still is holding at nearly half of the cases with 85 cases and two of the three deaths.

Ada(Boise) and Canyon(Nampe/Caldwell) have a combined 76 cases between them, and one of the deaths.

Idaho has 4 deaths now, another person over the age of 80 with pre-existing conditions, but oddly they didn't seem to know the gender in the report I caught. It was a case in Northern Idaho.

Blaine is now up to 98 cases, 2 deaths.
Ada + Canyon county are now up to a combined 99 cases and 1 death, so the Boise Valley has now overtaken Blaine on the case count. Total count statewide is now at 230, so we doubled out count in 2 days, mostly due to results in the Boise Valley.

312 cases now, holding at 6 deaths. Not quite a tripling of cases over the span of 4 days(would need 369, we have 312). Also short of a doubling in 3 days(would need 378 cases). So the rate of growth seems to be slowing down in Idaho as a statewide metric, we're still on track to double every 3 to 4 days at present.

Blaine now has 115 cases so they've less than doubled over the past 4 days(would have needed 130 cases)

Ada County is another matter, at 113 cases, and Canyon county has another 40 for a combined total of 153 cases across the countries that comprise the Boise River Valley, nearly triple the "40ish" I reported on the 25th, and nearly dead-on for doubling their numbers from the 26th for a doubling in 3 days.

There now are 3 counties in the state with 3 cases each; 2 Counties in Eastern Idaho -- All travel related; the other county has become a bedroom/commuter community for the Boise Valley so those are probably "community spread" from working in the Boise/Meridian/Nampa/Caldwell sprawl.

Northern Idaho still only has the two counties with 4 and 16 cases respectively, their numbers are holding pretty steady. The rest of the counties in the state are holding at 2 or fewer cases each. Most are still at 0.

ScottF

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #46 on: March 30, 2020, 01:20:06 AM »
I’m confused. Should I be panicking and tweeting this or just keeping up with my social distancing and sitting tight. Please advise.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 01:27:10 AM by ScottF »

Wayward Son

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #47 on: March 30, 2020, 02:07:50 AM »
Heard on the radio this morning of a death in San Diego.  A 25-year-old man.  No prior conditions.

This isn't just an old person's disease, or one that only kills those already sick.

Kasandra

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #48 on: March 30, 2020, 06:12:21 AM »
Heard on the radio this morning of a death in San Diego.  A 25-year-old man.  No prior conditions.

This isn't just an old person's disease, or one that only kills those already sick.

Yet the death rate closely correlates with age.

TheDeamon

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Re: Who’s got it?
« Reply #49 on: March 30, 2020, 06:41:35 AM »
Heard on the radio this morning of a death in San Diego.  A 25-year-old man.  No prior conditions.

This isn't just an old person's disease, or one that only kills those already sick.

Yet the death rate closely correlates with age.

And gender, women are dying from it, but in greatly reduced numbers compared to the men. Also California had an 18 year old die a couple days ago if I'm not mistaken on where he was from. There also has been an infant fatality now as well.

But as a % of total cases, the under 50 deaths are very rare. Which isn't to be confused with the "major complications" group, which was the statistic I was wanting more information on several weeks ago. The death data was useful, but I wanted to know more about the ones needing hospitalization/ICU stays more than the raw death number.

If my understanding of the news reports is right, it seems the under 40 crowd seems to be very well represented in both categories. But the advantage of youth is their bodies can withstand more before giving out.