Author Topic: here comes the next ice age  (Read 106881 times)

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #450 on: December 12, 2019, 10:09:17 AM »
Are you asserting that we understand why the prior ice ages started, continued, and receded well enough to be absolutely sure about which solar and/or Earth based mechanics were involved?  I'm really asking on that, I haven't dug deep (and usually when I do I find we don't really know as much as the articles seem to believe).

I think he was simply asserting that rising global temperatures, opening of the north west passage over the summers, melting permafrost, rapidly receding glaciers, melting ice sheets, warming oceans, and a whole host of other climate factors all point to warming. So the conclusion that a new ice age is just around the corner is far fetched unless you have some really good evidence for it.

Does anyone else thing its weird that the crowd most actively denying AGW is also arguing that the sun is at an historic global minimum while all this is happening?

Seriati

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #451 on: December 12, 2019, 10:23:05 AM »
yossarian22c, if you wouldn't mind that really isn't responsive.  The posited "claim" is that a sustained minimum caused an extended period of global cooling.  We don't have modern direct observation of that circumstance.  Our best understanding of low cycle activity is that there are specific and observable effects that "have not had those results," though it's tough to be sure on that given we don't really know what the baseline would have been without the low activity (I mean maybe that's why heat gains have never matched with the projected claims, and that may terrify if you consider what could happen if there is a connection and solar activity levels increase).

Our best understanding that there have been global temperatures increases over a period of decades that honestly are relatively modest but that exceed what "should have happened" absent interference by mankind, doesn't really address what happens if say the majority driver is something outside human control and that factor has a significant change.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #452 on: December 12, 2019, 11:06:23 AM »
Quote
Our best understanding that there have been global temperatures increases over a period of decades that honestly are relatively modest but that exceed what "should have happened" absent interference by mankind,
That's not our best understanding.  Your mischaracterization as "relatively modest" and weak-sauce attribution put your statement well outside "our best understanding".

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #453 on: December 12, 2019, 11:14:26 AM »
Quote
Our best understanding that there have been global temperatures increases over a period of decades that honestly are relatively modest but that exceed what "should have happened" absent interference by mankind,
That's not our best understanding.  Your mischaracterization as "relatively modest" and weak-sauce attribution put your statement well outside "our best understanding".

The total temperature change is relatively modest on a geological time scale. However the rate of change is unprecedented.

https://xkcd.com/1732/


TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #454 on: December 12, 2019, 11:51:46 AM »
Do I have to do this for you, Seriati? Yes, 70 years of sustained suspension of the cycle was the Maunder minimum. There's nothing in the data to suggest we aren't on a normal cycle, we just happen to be in the normal part of the 11 year cycle that happens to be a low. The data now is vary similar to 2009, the last local minimum. Take a Good Hard Look.

Seriati

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #455 on: December 12, 2019, 01:13:27 PM »
Have to do it, no, but efforts on education are appreciated it. 

I have to admit, again, I don't know why you think linking to data on the current cycle is relevant to the question I asked (about our understanding around the exact natural processes that must have triggered entrances into and exits from recent ice ages, the older they get potentially the less relevant).  Current cycle data isn't even relevant to the consequences of what an extended cycle (high or low) would do.

It's like the old tale of how Roman legions had to break stride when crossing bridges because if they stayed in step the aggregate impact could shatter the bridge. The same amount of steps and force generates different effects when it's applied in different ways and you get a consequence that isn't clearly telegraphed from the individual events.

TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #456 on: December 12, 2019, 01:30:19 PM »
The whole thread is asserting that we're headed for another ice age, right now. Not that they happen or that it's interesting to study the phenomenon.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #457 on: December 12, 2019, 03:44:58 PM »
Quote
Our best understanding that there have been global temperatures increases over a period of decades that honestly are relatively modest but that exceed what "should have happened" absent interference by mankind,
That's not our best understanding.  Your mischaracterization as "relatively modest" and weak-sauce attribution put your statement well outside "our best understanding".

The total temperature change is relatively modest on a geological time scale. However the rate of change is unprecedented.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Yup, totally unprecedented in the most recent 20,000 years time scale, based on the reconstruction xkcd went with.

When you cherry pick the start point, any argument can be made with statistics and reconstructions.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #458 on: December 12, 2019, 03:46:18 PM »
So when has the temperature previously changed this quickly and why?

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #459 on: December 12, 2019, 03:46:50 PM »
The whole thread is asserting that we're headed for another ice age, right now. Not that they happen or that it's interesting to study the phenomenon.

Technically, we're still in an Ice Age, have been for a million+ years now. We're just in a warmer phase of it.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #460 on: December 12, 2019, 03:49:45 PM »
So when has the temperature previously changed this quickly and why?

If we knew the why, there'd be less dispute about what's going on now.

We know conditions changed, we just don't know enough at this time to determine the how behind the triggers for those changes. But as "natural systems" were causing such changes because AGW certainly wasn't doing it 100+ thousand years ago, it is reasonable to suspect some of those unknown mechanisms may be in play today.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #461 on: December 12, 2019, 03:58:23 PM »
I fail to see why people should find "unknown unknowns" to be a convincing alternative to a fairly well-established theory.

Seriati

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #462 on: December 12, 2019, 04:11:53 PM »
So when has the temperature previously changed this quickly and why?

There's no way to know.  Our data sensitivity once you get back behind directly recorded temperatures is garbage.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #463 on: December 12, 2019, 04:17:40 PM »
I fail to see why people should find "unknown unknowns" to be a convincing alternative to a fairly well-established theory.

They're not "unknown unknowns."

They're in the category of "things we know we don't know" we know it happened, we just don't know the why or how behind those sudden changes. Of course being paleclimate and a reconstruction, the AGW crowd handwaves it away when it doesn't help their case.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #464 on: December 12, 2019, 04:28:51 PM »
The real brain teaser in much of this however, has to be some recent suggestions that "a warm arctic" so long as it stays within certain temperature bounds(warm enough to not freeze, but cold enough it doesn't thaw everything else on nearby land--easy enough for a salt-water environment), may actually trigger Glaciation, as it provides moisture and energy for snowstorms to accumulate on the adjoining landmass, potentially at a rate where accumulation begins to surpass meltoff(and moves the albedo closer to white). And as land isn't subject to warm ocean currents conveying heat energy from hundreds of miles away...

I'm not holding my breath on that, but I am very curious to see what happens with Solar Cycle 25 and 26. That said, if SC25 is less active than 24, and we're still regularly setting "top 10 warmest years" records in 6 to 7 years, we've probably got a problem.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #465 on: December 12, 2019, 04:35:30 PM »
Quote
we know it happened, we just don't know the why or how behind those sudden changes
We don't know that it happened if by "it" you mean changes in global climate at the rate we are seeing today. There is simply no data to support such a statement.

Crunch

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #466 on: December 13, 2019, 09:36:11 AM »
So when has the temperature previously changed this quickly and why?

There is evidence to suggest that there have been similarly quick changes. However, this is all done via proxies for gauging temperatures since humans weren’t around with thermometers until very, very recently. The accuracy of those proxies are difficult to compare to the tenth of a degree we currently estimate. So, in the end, your question is impossible to answer and is open to a lot of interpretation.

But, the warming movement only considers global climate as something that was present in the last 150 years so those past periods may not even be relevant to you. 

Crunch

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #467 on: December 13, 2019, 10:20:51 AM »
Quote
we know it happened, we just don't know the why or how behind those sudden changes
We don't know that it happened if by "it" you mean changes in global climate at the rate we are seeing today. There is simply no data to support such a statement.

This is known as the argument from ignorance fallacy.

Most, if not all, the arguments promoted by environmentalists have a logical fallacy at its foundation.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #468 on: December 13, 2019, 10:27:43 AM »
There is evidence to suggest that there have been similarly quick changes. However, this is all done via proxies for gauging temperatures since humans weren’t around with thermometers until very, very recently. The accuracy of those proxies are difficult to compare to the tenth of a degree we currently estimate. So, in the end, your question is impossible to answer and is open to a lot of interpretation.

But, the warming movement only considers global climate as something that was present in the last 150 years so those past periods may not even be relevant to you.

In other words, we can't be sure and we don't know. That's totally reason to disbelieve a fairly well established theory describing something we know is happening and offers a reasonable explanation for it.

You seemed to confused about who is arguing from ignorance.

Crunch

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #469 on: December 13, 2019, 10:34:28 AM »
Doubling down on a logical fallacy is known as argument by repetition. Add in a little ad hominem for fun. Just more logical fallacy. Notice the pattern?

Did you know that the hockey stick graph, the “proof” of global warming rate of change, was completely discredited?

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #470 on: December 13, 2019, 10:41:49 AM »
You are aware you've replied to more than one person, yes? There's no repetition going on.

Btw, pointing out imagined fallacies is not arguing.

rightleft22

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #471 on: December 13, 2019, 10:47:07 AM »
Quote
Doubling down on a logical fallacy is known as argument by repetition. Add in a little ad hominem for fun. Just more logical fallacy. Notice the pattern?

I just can't take this projection seriously. You see this flaw in everyone except the people you support. Trump is the master of the offense/defense by repetition - Trump doesn't really make arguments.  To call this out on others but not the fearful Leader... shrug

TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #472 on: December 13, 2019, 11:41:15 AM »
Quote
Did you know that the hockey stick graph, the “proof” of global warming rate of change, was completely discredited?

Speaking of argument by repetition. It's great that you climate deniers managed to find one bad study and trot it out at every opportunity. It was 20 years ago. Move on.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #473 on: December 13, 2019, 12:28:34 PM »
Quote
Did you know that the hockey stick graph, the “proof” of global warming rate of change, was completely discredited?

Speaking of argument by repetition. It's great that you climate deniers managed to find one bad study and trot it out at every opportunity. It was 20 years ago. Move on.
Except, of course, the study in question was not even bad, but has been broadly shown to have been 'good' methodologically, as well as accurate in its conclusions.

This is one of those cases where the lie has been repeated so often that it's been embedded into people's consciousness.

Seriati

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #474 on: December 13, 2019, 02:10:14 PM »
I think Crunch's point on repetition of fallacy is actually valid. Anyone that has looked at the temperature record before human measurements understands that it does not reflect any level of month to month, day to day, year to year or even decade to decade precision.

How then do you conclude that the rate of change is unprecedented?  Challenging someone to point to where it occurred previously to refute your claim, kind of misses the point that there was no way for you to make the claim in the first place based on the data.

Again, climate change is a place where the uncertainty in the science is much much greater than the uncertainty in the people who want to argue about it.

Wayward Son

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #475 on: December 13, 2019, 02:22:14 PM »
While it may be true that climatologists display a higher degree of certainty about their data than what is warranted, it is a certainty that Crunch displays a completely unreasonable degree of certainty about his denials of the climatologists' claims.

While climatologists research and analyze the data to come to their conclusions, Crunch misrepresents their work and their data to come to his conclusions.  The two are hardly equivalent.

Climatologists do display more arrogance about their conclusions than is warranted.  But it is no where near as much arrogance as Crunch and deniers like him display.  Climatologists' arrogance comes after years of hard work and analysis.  Crunch's arrogance simply comes from ignorance and pure ego.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #476 on: December 13, 2019, 02:27:19 PM »
How then do you conclude that the rate of change is unprecedented?  Challenging someone to point to where it occurred previously to refute your claim, kind of misses the point that there was no way for you to make the claim in the first place based on the data.

Because we have no evidence for change this quick outside of catastrophic events. It *might* have happened before but you just said we can't know because of the limitations of the data. Not to mention for any such change to be missed in the physical evidence, the temperature would have to spike and return to normal quickly enough not to be visible. By what mechanism would that happen? What evidence do we have today that there will soon be a rapid return to some historical mean?

If you want to supplant an established theory, you usually need to supply an alternative explanation for what's been observed.

TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #477 on: December 13, 2019, 02:29:13 PM »
The xkcd link actually explains how you can call it that. Granularity can only hide an unprecedented change if it was brief enough to be offset by a corresponding unprecedented change in the opposite direction. That's highly unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.

(NH beat me to it  >:()

ScottF

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #478 on: December 13, 2019, 02:30:58 PM »
While it may be true that climatologists display a higher degree of certainty about their data than what is warranted, it is a certainty that Crunch displays a completely unreasonable degree of certainty about his denials of the climatologists' claims.

While climatologists research and analyze the data to come to their conclusions, Crunch misrepresents their work and their data to come to his conclusions.  The two are hardly equivalent.

Climatologists do display more arrogance about their conclusions than is warranted.  But it is no where near as much arrogance as Crunch and deniers like him display.  Climatologists' arrogance comes after years of hard work and analysis.  Crunch's arrogance simply comes from ignorance and pure ego.

I would say if you're in the "majority" camp and show anything other than 100% double-down commitment to climate change you risk being run out on a rail, certainly if you're in politics or in any kind of media spotlight. There's no nuance or room for uncertainty of any kind in the cult of Greta.

Wayward Son

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #479 on: December 13, 2019, 04:19:59 PM »
LOL, Scott!  You're seriously criticizing AGW supporters for leaving "no nuance or room for uncertainty of any kind!"  ;D

When deniers claim that scientists fake data every day?  When record breaking temperatures come almost every year and deniers say it proves nothing, then turn around and say every snow storm proves that AGW is a lie?  When the same deniers say global warming isn't happening, and it isn't caused by CO2, and it isn't as bad as scientists say, and we can't stop it anyway so why try??

Verses scientists who spend millions of dollars and thousands and man-hours to test and check their theories using supercomputer programs; scientists who make careful measurements of the heat in the atmosphere and the oceans; scientists who check and verify each others works, and argue over the results and the meaning of the results in conferences; these are the people who are part of "the cult of Greta?"  ::)

Deniers thrive on wishful thinking and overblown, unverified scientific hypothesis (or worse).  That is because they have no solid evidence to prove that AGW isn't happening.  So they have to take whatever they can find, no matter how questionable, as their "proof."  Like the desperate hope that sunspots inactivity will cool the Earth enough to compensate for increased CO2 in the atmosphere.  ::)

Fake data, denial of verified facts, multiple excuses, and faith in unverified theories that may or may not happen, verses theories built on verified science, tests of such theories, meticulously gathered data, and peer review and arguments.  Which sounds more like a cult to you?

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #480 on: December 13, 2019, 06:47:07 PM »
Verfied theory? Like atmospheric CO2's potency progressing in a linear manner rather than logarithmic?

Crunch

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #481 on: December 14, 2019, 04:43:17 PM »
While it may be true that climatologists display a higher degree of certainty about their data than what is warranted, it is a certainty that Crunch displays a completely unreasonable degree of certainty about his denials of the climatologists' claims.

While climatologists research and analyze the data to come to their conclusions, Crunch misrepresents their work and their data to come to his conclusions.  The two are hardly equivalent.

Climatologists do display more arrogance about their conclusions than is warranted.  But it is no where near as much arrogance as Crunch and deniers like him display.  Climatologists' arrogance comes after years of hard work and analysis.  Crunch's arrogance simply comes from ignorance and pure ego.

Arrogance? Pot calling kettle black there? LOL

Here’s a few things I am certain of:
  • We are in an ice age with all time record lows. Temperatures should, hopefully, increase back to norms.
  • We are at all time record lows of CO2, orders of magnitude below average. We should expect and hope it increases.
  • The sun, not a trace atmospheric gas, is the primary source of heating on this planet.
  • Whatever the theory, if it’s foundation is based on a litany of logical fallacies then it’s reasonable to be skeptical
  • If you have to threaten people to accept your theory or you’ll destroy them, perhaps even kill them, something is wrong.
  • Most, in fact very nearly all, predictions based on global warming theory have been proven wrong. Islands haven’t sunk, there are not tens of millions of climate refugees, the arctic is not ice free, we still have snow, New York and Miami are not flooded, etc etc, etc. When a theory’s predictions routinely fail, it indicates the theory is deeply flawed.

For a long time, I was merely skeptical but willing to listen. But after we passed the deadline to avert doomsday half a dozen times I realized environmentalists pushing AGW were simply crackpots. It’s literally modern day Lysenkoism.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2019, 04:49:33 PM by Crunch »

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #482 on: December 14, 2019, 11:53:10 PM »
You were willing to listen once? When was that? On any topic?

Seriously, your whole routine reminds me of Al’s argument that Obama’s only flaw was that he is too patient with those who don’t bow down and worship him (slight exaggeration)

Crunch

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #483 on: January 06, 2020, 07:02:23 PM »
So, celebrities calling it out:

Quote

Aniston, who was presenting the award, told the audience that Crowe was unable to be at the ceremony in Los Angeles because he was "at home in Australia protecting his family from the devastating brush fires."

"He sent along this message in case he won," Aniston said.

"Make no mistake, the tragedy unfolding in Australia is climate change-based," said Aniston, reading the 55-year-old performer's remarks.

"We need to act based on science, move our global workforce to renewable energy, and respect our planet for the unique and amazing place it is," said Aniston. "That way, we all have a future," she continued to applause.

Yeah, crowd goes wild. Climate change caused these fires! The root cause of this evil is climate change. The AGW crowd laps that drivel up. Why is it drivel? Because:
Quote
More than 180 alleged arsonists have been arrested since the start of the bushfire season, with 29 blazes deliberately lit in the Shoalhaven region of southeast NSW in just three months.

The Shoalhaven fires were lit between July and September last year, with Kempsey recording 27 deliberately lit fires, NSW Bureau of Crime and Statistics and Research data shows.

Police arrested 183 people for lighting bushfires across Queensland, NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania in the past few months. NSW police data shows 183 people have been charged or cautioned for bushfire-related offences since November 8, and 24 arrested for deliberately starting bushfires.

Queensland police say 101 people have been picked up for setting fires in the bush, 32 adults and 69 juveniles.

So is it climate change or all those people intentionally setting fires across the country? Does anyone think that a epidemic of arson just might be a cause for these fires? Nah. Gotta be climate changes. It’s science!

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #484 on: January 06, 2020, 07:12:41 PM »
So is it climate change or all those people intentionally setting fires across the country? Does anyone think that a epidemic of arson just might be a cause for these fires? Nah. Gotta be climate changes. It’s science!

The "fun" one still has to be the chart I encountered which was a response to alarmist cries in California about "we don't have a fire season any more, we have a fire year."

The chart broke down the wildfire events in California in relation to the primary factor in causing the fire, natural vs man-caused (power lines, arsonists, other human activity directly attributable to causing the ignition event).

Seems the natural fire events still have a season to them. A very clear and very strong seasonal signal at that. What's new is the increasing amount of human encroachment into "natural areas" because humans like to feel like they're "living in nature" after all. Which then leads to drought events not very far outside the normal variation for the area, but humans doing stupid things during said drought conditions which results in a fire being started during some of the most dangerous seasonal wind events (for fire weather) in much of the world.

But nope, it's totally not humans being stupid, its AGW causing all those fires.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #485 on: January 06, 2020, 07:40:47 PM »
That really sounds like a lot of arson... It must be the cause.  But wait - here's a question that went unanswered: how many arrests are made for starting bush fires in a 'normal' year? And are all arrests made as a result of people intending to start bush fires, or are some arrests responses to simple irresponsibility?

For instance, camp fires that do not get out of control may very well not lead to arrests; is it possible that the probability of accidental bush fires increases as a function of the dryness of the available fuel, which could very well be partly related to climate changes?

As for 183 being such a big number: in 2016, in Victoria State alone, there were about 230 arrests related to bush fires.  That's not apples to apples, but it suggests that the 183 number might not actually be out of the ordinary.

Also, what's the point of the posts, anyway? To make fun of Aniston and Crowe? It certainly wouldn't, even if 100% correct, mean the human driven global warming is not happening.

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #486 on: January 06, 2020, 07:41:33 PM »
So, celebrities calling it out:

Quote

Aniston, who was presenting the award, told the audience that Crowe was unable to be at the ceremony in Los Angeles because he was "at home in Australia protecting his family from the devastating brush fires."

"He sent along this message in case he won," Aniston said.

"Make no mistake, the tragedy unfolding in Australia is climate change-based," said Aniston, reading the 55-year-old performer's remarks.

"We need to act based on science, move our global workforce to renewable energy, and respect our planet for the unique and amazing place it is," said Aniston. "That way, we all have a future," she continued to applause.

Yeah, crowd goes wild. Climate change caused these fires! The root cause of this evil is climate change. The AGW crowd laps that drivel up. Why is it drivel? Because:
Quote
More than 180 alleged arsonists have been arrested since the start of the bushfire season, with 29 blazes deliberately lit in the Shoalhaven region of southeast NSW in just three months.

The Shoalhaven fires were lit between July and September last year, with Kempsey recording 27 deliberately lit fires, NSW Bureau of Crime and Statistics and Research data shows.

Police arrested 183 people for lighting bushfires across Queensland, NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania in the past few months. NSW police data shows 183 people have been charged or cautioned for bushfire-related offences since November 8, and 24 arrested for deliberately starting bushfires.

Queensland police say 101 people have been picked up for setting fires in the bush, 32 adults and 69 juveniles.

So is it climate change or all those people intentionally setting fires across the country? Does anyone think that a epidemic of arson just might be a cause for these fires? Nah. Gotta be climate changes. It’s science!

Since Crunch left out any link, here's the rest of the story:
https://morningmail.org/bushfires-183-arrested-for-arson/

Quote
The boundaries between accidentally and purposefully are unclear because many arsonists don’t plan on causing the catastrophe that occurs. Often there is not an intention to cause chaos and the penalties for accidentally lighting a fire are far less than purposefully lighting a fire.”
Swinburne University professor James Ogloff said about 50 per cent of bushfires were lit by firebugs and impending fire seasons excited them.

Like in the USA, whether a wilderness fire turns into a conflagration has everything to do with Climate, otherwise there would be no "fire seasons."  Has Australia's climate dried out?  Doesn't say.  Are there a greater number of firebugs this year?  The article implies no, that this has been a problem for some time, since they already have stats on them.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #487 on: January 06, 2020, 10:05:18 PM »
Like in the USA, whether a wilderness fire turns into a conflagration has everything to do with Climate, otherwise there would be no "fire seasons."  Has Australia's climate dried out?  Doesn't say.  Are there a greater number of firebugs this year?  The article implies no, that this has been a problem for some time, since they already have stats on them.

Dry seasons, even years or decades, come and go. What has changed is the number of people interacting with that very dry environment. Without the human, no wildfire would have happened even with the very dry conditions. All the dry conditions did is put that human in position to unleash much more mayhem than they imagined possible. But that's people being stupid, not climate change.

If it was truly driven by climate change, "naturally caused" fires should be increasing, and happening at more/different times of the year, and that is simply not evident. You could argue that's because the silly humans burned it first, but your're arguing a negative at that point.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #488 on: January 06, 2020, 10:20:45 PM »
Quote
What has changed is the number of people interacting with that very dry environment.
Do you have any evidence that this is the case in Australia?

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #489 on: January 06, 2020, 10:43:49 PM »
Not yet, but give it time, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone compile the numbers.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #490 on: January 06, 2020, 10:51:47 PM »
So you just made that up?

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #491 on: January 06, 2020, 11:55:06 PM »
So you just made that up?

My "evidence" as it was, happens to be a compilation of fire statistics for California which quite obviously is not Australia. I'm making conjecture that what applies for California likely applies to the situation in Auz. Further poking around indicates that's probably exactly so, poor land management practices, much like in California, too much undergrowth, few to new measures to thin it out. Decades of aggressive fire suppression, etc. Sounds a LOT like Cali.

That another person in here was posting about a high number of Arson arrests and other indicators of humans being the cause, not nature, and well... It stands to reason that if someone does crunch the numbers, the wildfires down under only happened because a human caused it. Climate conditions may have put everything else in place, but it is the human that created the proverbial spark.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #492 on: January 07, 2020, 12:18:20 AM »
On a different track, but related as I stumbled across it while looking to see if any such numbers had been found for Australia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event

Which leads to an interesting off-shoot which we'll have to see play out in the next decade.

Fact: A lot of the "temperature anomaly"(warming) being witnessed by satellite record is largely located in the Arctic Ocean.
Fact: The Northern Polar ice cap has been virtually non-existent during much of the year for several years now.
Fact: Liquid water is generally going to be warmer than cold water.
Fact: Frozen water is less dense than liquid(warmer) water.
Fact: Arctic Sea Ice is understood to have been melted in large part by way of incursion of warm Atlantic Water into the Arctic over several decades. Effectively melting it from below while warmer environmental conditions likely helped melt it from above. (But mostly, it was melted from below, water has a MUCH higher heat capacity than air)

Theory: Arctic Sea Ice was serving as a "cap" on top of warmer water in the Arctic which accumulated over time as it slowly melted its way through the polar ice cap.
Theory: The loss of said Sea Ice has now changed the thermal exchange from involving the melting of sea ice blown in from other parts of the Arctic and now involves a significant ocean-to-atmosphere-to-space interface, which is being observed as warming by orbital and ground instruments.
Theory: This heat exchange was previously unobserved because it normally happens under the ice sheet, which the Atlantic inflows overwhlemed.
Theory: Atlantic flows were particularly warm and strong due in large part to solar irradiance thanks to a series of very strong solar cycles.
Theory: The "Arctic heat" being observed isn't actually evidence of warming in the strictest sense. It is actually evidence of the ocean cooling as it releases heat energy it has stored over the intervening years.

Which brings us to another fact: The flow of warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic and thus to the Arctic has been in decline since 2007.
Theory: As the Arctic completes releasing the accumulated heat energy(as the energy in flow is decreasing), the ice cap will begin to stabilize and grow back to what the activists are comparing it against.

Also of note: Some studies are starting to concern scientists as it looks like the Energy Balance for planet Earth, in particular the Northern pole, is running into negative territory. Good news for cooling the planet, problematic for theories of AGW.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #493 on: January 07, 2020, 10:35:16 AM »
So you just made that up?

My "evidence" as it was, happens to be a compilation of fire statistics for California which quite obviously is not Australia. I'm making conjecture that what applies for California likely applies to the situation in Auz. Further poking around indicates that's probably exactly so, poor land management practices, much like in California, too much undergrowth, few to new measures to thin it out. Decades of aggressive fire suppression, etc. Sounds a LOT like Cali.
Of course, you'll have to forgive us for not taking your memory of a thoughtful analysis at face value: especially given that your memory, and even initial analyses, tend to be biased and partisan - just like everyone. Of course historical fire suppression has its place in the causes of larger fires, but weighting that above the increased heat and dryness caused by the climate crisis is a result of partisan blinders, either in your memory, by the author upon which you based your conclusions, or in your choice of source analyses.

What is the proximate cause of the Australian fires?  Well, to ignore that the continent is undergoing a historical heat wave concurrent with a historical dry period, and focusing on undergrowth and land use is just silly.  Undergrowth and land use has simply not changed significantly in the past 5 years, yes brush fires have been increasing in intensity.

Is the historical heat and dryness exclusively related to the climate crisis?  No!  There are weather variables that are coming together to make these metrics worse (ocean currents and heat distributions in the Indian Ocean are huge factors in both the heat and the dryness).  But these variables are layered on top of the AGW temperature signal, without which there would not have been record warmth and dryness in Australia this year.

Seriati

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #494 on: January 07, 2020, 03:17:18 PM »
Don't know much about the situation in Australia, but thought you may find this interesting.  http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/76f709dc-ccb3-4645-a18b-063fbbf0a899/files/native-vegetation-framework.pdf

In particular the maps on PDF pages 24 and 25, show an estimate of the change in native vegetation cover from before 1750 to when the report was generated.  It's interesting that most of the land mass shows little change, except the heavily populated areas which almost completely wiped out native plants.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #495 on: January 07, 2020, 03:58:21 PM »
What is the proximate cause of the Australian fires?  Well, to ignore that the continent is undergoing a historical heat wave concurrent with a historical dry period, and focusing on undergrowth and land use is just silly.  Undergrowth and land use has simply not changed significantly in the past 5 years, yes brush fires have been increasing in intensity.

Is the historical heat and dryness exclusively related to the climate crisis?  No!  There are weather variables that are coming together to make these metrics worse (ocean currents and heat distributions in the Indian Ocean are huge factors in both the heat and the dryness).  But these variables are layered on top of the AGW temperature signal, without which there would not have been record warmth and dryness in Australia this year.

The "historical heat wave and historical dry period" are actually highly debatable. If you're only looking at a 30 year trend(which the MSM loves to use, history doesn't start until 30 years ago), you're right. but that also provides a context for the fires now being seen--wetter years means more vegetation growth).

If you look at more historical trends, going back in the 1800's, Australia was "unusually wet" over the past 50-ish years. The long-term (100+ years) trend for Australia remains a progression towards wetter, not dryer, even with recent droughts.

Which points us around back to complaints about misguided watershed management practices currently in vogue is Auz because the eco-activists want it that way. So they're not holding water back for dry years like they would have done as recently as 20 years ago. Which leads to "lack of water" problems.

Or the eco-acitivists fighting against prescribed burns in Australia(and winning, unlike their American counterparts), or a regulatory environment that is reported to be actively hostile to landowners clearing "ground clutter" if it takes the form of vegetation. Something not even California is crazed enough to try.

A number of the problems in Australia at present are indeed human caused, just not in the way many would like to believe it to be.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #496 on: January 07, 2020, 05:25:11 PM »
Quote
The "historical heat wave and historical dry period" are actually highly debatable. If you're only looking at a 30 year trend(which the MSM loves to use, history doesn't start until 30 years ago), you're right.
What are you talking about?  Here's a hint - Australian temperature anomalies are normally calculated against the 1961-1990 average.

To be explicit ACORN-SAT uses over 100 years of digitised temperature data. Here's a graph of the anomalies for the full, 110-year dataset: Australian Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly

As you can see, no other year in the Australian dataset even comes close to the temperature record set in 2019. 

As for it not being particularly dry in 2019, which is what is affecting the current brush fire season: well, 2018 was exceptionally dry (the second driest autumn on record).  And this year, 2019 was even drier. So regardless of whether the last 50 years were on average wetter (they were not - check the link above) the last 2 years have been exceptionally dry. 

I can't see how you would argue that 2019 was not exceptionally dry, or was not exceptionally hot.  The numbers are there to be seen.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #497 on: January 09, 2020, 05:07:03 PM »
More data that is relevant to Australia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia

1974–75 New South Wales bushfires   New South Wales 11,000,000 acres burned
1974–1975 Northern Territory bushfires   Northern Territory 110,000,000 acres burned
1974–1975 Queensland bushfires   Queensland 19,000,000 acres burned
1974–1975 South Australia bushfires   South Australia 42,000,000 acres burned
1974–1975 Western Australia bushfires   Western Australia 72,000,00 acres burned

2019–20 Australian bushfire season   
New South Wales
Queensland
South Australia
Tasmania
Victoria
Western Australia
26,000,000 acres burned(5 September 2019 – 09 January 2020)

Yup, this fire season in Australia has no historical precedent down there, not even the fires in the the 1974/75 fire season which burned 10 times as much land(at least, to date), comes close to comparing to the events we're witnessing now. Obviously an event of this scale in Australia must be the result of Global Warming and Climate change and cannot conceivably be within established variability for Australia.

DonaldD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #498 on: January 09, 2020, 05:22:12 PM »
Why would you suggest that the current fire season burn extent is unprecedented (especially ironically)?  Nobody else seems to have made that claim.

Are you arguing that since the mid-fire-season extent is not a record, then it could not be hot and dry in Australia?  Or that AGW couldn't be happening because the brush fire extent is not itself record setting?  Seriously, what is the point you think you are making?

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #499 on: January 09, 2020, 05:46:40 PM »
Why would you suggest that the current fire season burn extent is unprecedented (especially ironically)?  Nobody else seems to have made that claim.

While nobody in here is being histrionic about it, there is plenty of chatter going on everwhere about how the fires in Auz are "clearly the result of global warming" because they're so big, and so destructive. Typically logical fallacy material for a lot of AGW types, where any evidence of extreme weather is proof of AGW, natural variability doesn't exist for them.

You establish "natural variability" in part by going back into history and seeing if a comparable precedent exists. If one does, then logically, more evidence than "on its face" is needed to create a "clear and indisputable" link to AGW. The 1974/75 Fire season burned 10 times as much land as the current fire season has to date, as nobody is making claims that the 1974/75 fire season was a consequence of Global Warming/Climate Change, that means that there is a LOT more ground to cover to generate the desired linkage to AGW(man-caused) climate change.

Quote
Are you arguing that since the mid-fire-season extent is not a record, then it could not be hot and dry in Australia?  Or that AGW couldn't be happening because the brush fire extent is not itself record setting?  Seriously, what is the point you think you are making?

Nobody is disputing it is hot and dry in Australia, what is in dispute is the trend they're trying to assert based on this fire season.

There are other problems as well, Dr. Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville explores some of them as well:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/01/are-australia-bushfires-worsening-from-human-caused-climate-change/