Author Topic: here comes the next ice age  (Read 181277 times)

Fenring

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #700 on: October 06, 2020, 02:13:27 PM »
The second is like you who respond to any argument or data with comments that equate to systems of non-linear differential equations are chaotic and weather/climate is complex and we don't know enough to say anything.

I will just point out, perhaps tangentially, that this is probably the singular sticking point in the current academic climate. There was a trend back at the 'turn of the century' to hypothesize that science was coming to an end; that all the major discoveries were behind us and that there was little more to do in new work. Naturally we can look back at this with a smile and a wink, knowing they they were just silly gooses, obviously ignorant in their pre-relativity and pre-internet little world. However this trend is, in a way, back in style in some quarters, in one case in the social values area of study where the "we know everything, dead people knew nothing" is coming on strong again, and in another case where some experts are decidedly sure that we are finally advanced enough to knowing anything we set ourselves to. But the fact is that many areas of inquiry are really beyond us, or at minimum so far in their infancy that they're the equivalent of naked eye astronomy done in the middle ages.

You will not find scientists, and especially not social scientists, ever willing to offer a statement such as "sorry but we've got to say that this is just not going to be understandable right now." That doesn't exactly look good on a grant application, and certainly isn't going to make your university increase your funding. Rather, you will get all kinds of improper claims of certainty about anything under the sun. I'm more familiar with stupid economic theories in the 20th century than I am with some other areas like climate science, but if you're aware enough of just how dunderheaded some of these 'experts' are, or how fake their claims are to prove they are earning their paychecks, then you should really not be surprised at any backlash against overstating claims of knowledge.

Now as I said this point is tangential because I'm not really weighing in the validity of the present points being made. But I am saying that the objection of "this stuff is too complex for the current claims to be believed" really is a valid position to take in various fields right now. And this is doubly so anything there is a climate of "everyone knowing" something when it's hard to believe anyone knows it. Maybe the climate scientists really are right. But I don't agree with classifying the "it's too complicated" defense as being a merely kneejerk position. That said, it is equally likely that plenty of kneejerk people will hide behind a reasonable sounding objection even though they would have objected no matter what. So there's that.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #701 on: October 06, 2020, 03:11:28 PM »
Except, Fenring, the basis of global warming IS simple and established science.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  Greenhouse gases keep the Earth at a temperate temperature (unlike, say, the Moon).  CO2 levels are increasing.  Increased concentrations of a greenhouse gas trap more heat in the atmosphere.  Therefore, increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere should increase global temperatures.

The only complexities are whether there is some other mechanism (or mechanisms) that counteract this.

Do higher temperatures cause more clouds to form?  Do the clouds reflect into space more radiation than they reflect back to Earth?  How much heat does the oceans absorb?  How much does that slow down atmospheric heating?  How much heat can the oceans absorb?  How does particulates in the atmosphere affect global temperatures?  Etc.  These all make the models complex and difficult to perfect.  Not to mention the chaotic nature of climate.

But notice, none of those factors disprove global warming.  They only make it harder to determine if there are other factors counteracting CO2 rise or not.  But CO2 is trapping more heat, regardless of any other factor.  It is a forcing of the climate, not some oddity that may happen because of some weird interaction of the various heat transfers.  It is like a pot on a burner and turning up the heat.  Exactly how and how quickly the pot will warm up is complex, but it will warm up unless there is something to counteract it.

So saying "this stuff is too complex to the current claims to be believed" is inaccurate.  The stuff is too complex for the current claims to be disbelieved.  It is too complex for anyone to say with any authority that something is counteracting global warming.  Everything we looked at so far hasn't done the trick.  And any alternative explanations for why we see warming is just additional heat to the increase from CO2.

It's just an excuse.  The basics of the science is solid.  The inability to have a good model that shows that it isn't happening is the problem for the deniers, not the science.

rightleft22

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #702 on: October 06, 2020, 04:28:13 PM »
As greenhouse gas traps more heat one can expect a change in the jet stream with airflow moving slower.
A observable sign of warming are slow moving weather events that linger over a area resulting in greater damage.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #703 on: October 06, 2020, 04:32:51 PM »
So saying "this stuff is too complex to the current claims to be believed" is inaccurate.

<snip>

It's just an excuse.  The basics of the science is solid. 

As well, the largest forcings of temperature are well studied and understood, including their expected effects and amplitudes.  For the observed warming to be attributed to a forcing that is NOT increased anthropogenic CO2 requires that some as yet unknown and significant forcing or forcings exist, but that would require that all scientists studying climate for the better part of a century to have missed a huge physical system with large effects, just as those scientists were actively looking for exactly that.  Sure, it's possible, but every decade, it's getting less and less likely this is the case.  It also requires that mysterious but really big forcing to also be almost exactly equal to the inaccuracy in how CO2 forcings are being miscalculated (assuming that CO2 forcings have been misunderstood, of course).

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #704 on: October 09, 2020, 06:04:08 PM »
As well, the largest forcings of temperature are well studied and understood, including their expected effects and amplitudes.  For the observed warming to be attributed to a forcing that is NOT increased anthropogenic CO2 requires that some as yet unknown and significant forcing or forcings exist, but that would require that all scientists studying climate for the better part of a century to have missed a huge physical system with large effects, just as those scientists were actively looking for exactly that.  Sure, it's possible, but every decade, it's getting less and less likely this is the case.  It also requires that mysterious but really big forcing to also be almost exactly equal to the inaccuracy in how CO2 forcings are being miscalculated (assuming that CO2 forcings have been misunderstood, of course).

Clouds.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #705 on: October 09, 2020, 06:20:22 PM »
Sun.

No - wait.

Chocolate.

wmLambert

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #706 on: October 09, 2020, 06:39:18 PM »
Sun.

No - wait.

Chocolate.

You do think you are God's gift to the world, don't you?

The sunspots have been missing for over a decade - and are now just entering a new solar cycle. During the long absence of sunspots, the formation of clouds was greatly affected, which was one of the greatest datapoints of climatology.

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #707 on: October 09, 2020, 06:41:11 PM »
Sun.

No - wait.

Chocolate.

So you're saying the climate scientists now claim to be able to effectively model for clouds(rather than water vapor, while related, they're not the same thing) rather than plugging in a static constant variable that they're calling "good enough" for now? This would be huge news.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #708 on: October 09, 2020, 07:17:52 PM »
So you're saying the climate scientists now claim to be able to effectively model for clouds(rather than water vapor, while related, they're not the same thing) rather than plugging in a static constant variable that they're calling "good enough" for now? This would be huge news.
I think you mean old news.  While water vapour does have a greater effect than clouds, and is purely a positive feedback, clouds, depending on how they are generated (high atmosphere, lower atmosphere, day-time, night time, winter summer) are more complex in their effects and lead to greater uncertainty - clouds effects are some of the largest uncertainties in climate models.  But the range of those effects are from being a weak negative feedback to a moderate positive feedback - and unlikely to be strongly negative - nothing even close to being on the order of the effects of increased CO2.

You'll find a bunch of studies from 10-15 years ago on this very topic, looking specifically at how climate sensitivity is affected by changes in cloud cover.

As well, water vapour is not a forcing - it is a feedback.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #709 on: October 13, 2020, 01:21:55 PM »
UN warns that world risks becoming 'uninhabitable hell' for millions unless leaders take climate action.

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(CNN)There has been a "staggering" rise in natural disasters over the past 20 years and the climate crisis is to blame, the United Nations said Monday.

Researchers pointed to a failure of political and business leaders to take meaningful action to mitigate the impact of climatic change and stop the planet from turning into "an uninhabitable hell for millions of people."

...

Between 2000 and 2019, there were 7,348 major natural disasters -- including earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes -- that claimed 1.23 million lives, affected 4.2 billion people and resulted in $2.97 trillion in global economic losses, according to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR).
That's almost double the 4,212 disasters recorded from 1980-1999, the UN said in its new report The Human Cost of Disasters 2000-2019.

...

The vast majority of those disasters were climate-related, with researchers reporting more flooding, storms, droughts, heatwaves, hurricanes and wildfires in the past 20 years.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #710 on: October 13, 2020, 05:29:02 PM »
Quote
The sunspots have been missing for over a decade - and are now just entering a new solar cycle. During the long absence of sunspots, the formation of clouds was greatly affected, which was one of the greatest datapoints of climatology.

So what makes you believe clouds will compensate for increased heat trapped by CO2?  Where is your data?  Where are your models?

Or is it just a WAG? ;)

wmLambert

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #711 on: October 14, 2020, 12:21:22 AM »
...So what makes you believe clouds will compensate for increased heat trapped by CO2?  Where is your data?  Where are your models?

Or is it just a WAG? ;)

In 2008, Scientists noted the absence of sun spots: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080609124551.htm

Now it is 2020 and the sun spots have been gone all this time.

You may want to check this post: http://ai-jane.org/thread-15075-post-281659.html#pid281659

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #712 on: October 14, 2020, 11:38:14 AM »
That doesn't actually respond to WS' post, you do realize..?

How were clouds greatly affected, how do you think cloud formation will change, and how would that change in cloud formation affect temperatures?

yossarian22c

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #713 on: October 14, 2020, 12:07:45 PM »
That doesn't actually respond to WS' post, you do realize..?

How were clouds greatly affected, how do you think cloud formation will change, and how would that change in cloud formation affect temperatures?

Solar activity or lack there of can have an impact on cloud formation.
 
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160825113235.htm
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The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth's atmosphere from cosmic rays. However the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. The eruptions cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.

2 percent change in cloud cover. I won't dig further into the report to see if a 2% change is actually statistically significant from their data, for now assume that it is. 2% change in cloud cover is unlikely to have a strong impact on climate. Clouds kind of wash out in the climate warming/cooling scheme. They reflect heat during the day and trap it at night. So a 2% change in cloud cover is unlikely to have a strong impact on global climate.

Which is what scientists have concluded as well.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cosmic-rays-not-causing-climate-change/
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Changes in solar activity, sunspots and cosmic rays, and their effects on clouds have contributed no more than 10 percent to global warming, according to two British scientists.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #714 on: October 14, 2020, 12:36:47 PM »
...So what makes you believe clouds will compensate for increased heat trapped by CO2?  Where is your data?  Where are your models?

Or is it just a WAG? ;)

In 2008, Scientists noted the absence of sun spots: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080609124551.htm

Now it is 2020 and the sun spots have been gone all this time.

OK.  How much did the lack of sun spots affect our global climate.  How much did their lack add to the heating from CO2, or conversely, how much did it temporarily alleviate the temperature increase from CO2?  What do your models indicate?

And what about the 12 years before the reduction of sunspots?  Was there no effect then?  How about the 12 years before that?  And the 12 years before that?  And the 12 years before that? Etc.

Global temperatures have been climbing for quite a while now.  Far longer than this reduction in sunspots.

Quote
You may want to check this post: http://ai-jane.org/thread-15075-post-281659.html#pid281659

I take it that that chart which indicates a general cooling trend in the past 8000 years means that we're not seeing as much warning from CO2 and other greenhouse gases increase as we should.  So what should we expect if this trend turns around?  How much worse is it going to be?  What do the models indicate?

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #715 on: October 14, 2020, 01:58:09 PM »
...So what makes you believe clouds will compensate for increased heat trapped by CO2?  Where is your data?  Where are your models?

Or is it just a WAG? ;)

In 2008, Scientists noted the absence of sun spots: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080609124551.htm

Now it is 2020 and the sun spots have been gone all this time.

You may want to check this post: http://ai-jane.org/thread-15075-post-281659.html#pid281659

Uh what?

2008 was during a transition between sunspot cycles. There was plenty of sunspot activity between 2008 and 2019. It was still one of the more active cycles seen since the start of the 20th century which were in and of themselves more active than anything recorded previously.

Now what's been seen since 2019 is a bit unusual, but to try to claim there were no sunspots, or unusually low sunspot activity between 2008 and now is so far the reality of things you really need to look at where you're getting information from.

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #716 on: October 14, 2020, 02:05:36 PM »
2 percent change in cloud cover. I won't dig further into the report to see if a 2% change is actually statistically significant from their data, for now assume that it is. 2% change in cloud cover is unlikely to have a strong impact on climate. Clouds kind of wash out in the climate warming/cooling scheme. They reflect heat during the day and trap it at night. So a 2% change in cloud cover is unlikely to have a strong impact on global climate.

Depends on the clouds?

Where there are clouds, there are precipitation events. Where there are precipitation events you have water from the colder upper atmosphere moving down to the planets surface. You also additional convection going on moving heat from the lower atmosphere into higher levels of it before once again returning that now cooler moisture back to the surface.

Or are you forgetting that summer thunderstorms, especially the strong ones, are known to cool the area they're in by upwards of 30 degrees(F) when they move through? Yes you can see that with coldfronts too, but a supercell thunderstorm doesn't necessarily need a cold front.

Even the more generic thunderstorms still typically produce 10 degrees(F) worth of cooling when they pass through. And the number of those events is going to be a function of how much cloud cover there is and the mechanism behind their formation.

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #717 on: October 14, 2020, 02:14:56 PM »
OK.  How much did the lack of sun spots affect our global climate.  How much did their lack add to the heating from CO2, or conversely, how much did it temporarily alleviate the temperature increase from CO2?  What do your models indicate?

And what about the 12 years before the reduction of sunspots?  Was there no effect then?  How about the 12 years before that?  And the 12 years before that?  And the 12 years before that? Etc.

Global temperatures have been climbing for quite a while now.  Far longer than this reduction in sunspots.

The Solar Cycles we've been seeing since the 1970's have been among some of the most active ones since records started being made roughly 300 years ago. IIRC, the most recently concluded one was still slightly "above average" against the historical record(but some of that could be from our enhanced ability to detect sunspots/solar flares, including being able to see "behind the sun" relative to Earth).

If the theory about the very active solar cycles we've just gone through holds valid, we're likely still bleeding off "excess heat" accumulated from those cycles and it could take awhile for any real cooling effect to be detected. Depending on how active solar cycle 25 is against the historical sunspot cycles, we'll see if we continue to warm or start to cool. If SC is appreciably below the historical average and we're still warming in 10 years time, the Solar Cycle theory is effectively busted. But if it is merely "average" or more active than that, then it continues to be disputed until we're on the tail end of a below-average solar cycle.

Remember, the energy requirements for maintaining a temperature are lower than the requirements for changing a temperature assuming all other variables remain the same.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 02:17:02 PM by TheDeamon »

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #718 on: October 14, 2020, 04:17:03 PM »
Quote
If the theory about the very active solar cycles we've just gone through holds valid, we're likely still bleeding off "excess heat" accumulated from those cycles and it could take awhile for any real cooling effect to be detected. Depending on how active solar cycle 25 is against the historical sunspot cycles, we'll see if we continue to warm or start to cool. If SC is appreciably below the historical average and we're still warming in 10 years time, the Solar Cycle theory is effectively busted. But if it is merely "average" or more active than that, then it continues to be disputed until we're on the tail end of a below-average solar cycle.

But if increasing temperatures are tied to sunspot cycles, that should be evident from the historical record, right?  We should see temperatures decreasing during sunspot activity, then rising when they are reduced, even if there is a time delay.  Is there a detectable correlation?

But it still doesn't answer the question of how much cloud-induced sunspots adds or subtracts from the increased temperatures from increased CO2 in the atmosphere.  Or the problem that sunspots come and go, but CO2 remains in the atmosphere for up to 1000 years or more. It's nice we get a break from higher temperatures for 12 years or so, but then it will come roaring back, won't it? ;)

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #719 on: October 14, 2020, 04:31:04 PM »
From the peak of the 12-year sunspot cycle to the trough, total solar irradiance varies by less than 0.1%.  That's from peak to trough.  The variance between cycles is far less than 0.1%.  The effects of changes in solar irradiance are completely dwarfed by other variables.

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #720 on: October 15, 2020, 03:38:13 PM »
From the peak of the 12-year sunspot cycle to the trough, total solar irradiance varies by less than 0.1%.  That's from peak to trough.  The variance between cycles is far less than 0.1%.  The effects of changes in solar irradiance are completely dwarfed by other variables.

It isn't just irradiance though, it is the intensity of the solar wind, cosmic rays(strong sunspot cycles shield us from Cosmic Rays), and the weird link between the solar cycle/solar wind and the depth of our atmosphere. high sunspot activity means thicker(deeper) atmosphere and more stable jet stream, low sunspot activity thinner(more shallow) atmosphere and a jet stream which wanders more, and that's something that is more immediately noticeable.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #721 on: October 15, 2020, 04:53:38 PM »
These are well studied phenomena - the solar wind is thought to have a negligible effect on climate; the posited mechanisms by which galactic cosmic rays (GCR) affect climate is that changes in cosmic rays intensity (reductions) have led to a reduction in Earth's albedo by reducing low-level cloud formation as a result of fewer aerosols created by galactic cosmic rays - and said lower albedo is the cause of some amount of the recently observed warming.

In summary:
Reduction in solar wind -> More GCRs -> more aerosols induced -> more aerosols condense and seed clouds - more low level clouds -> higher albedo -> more energy reflected away from planet -> cooling
Increase in solar wind -> fewer GCRs -> fewer aerosols induced -> fewer aerosols condense and seed clouds - fewer low level clouds -> lower albedo -> less energy reflected away from planet -> warming

However, there are a couple of problems with this - from a theoretical perspective, cloud generation must be a function of the aerosols generated by the interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere - but the aerosols produced are too small, by orders of magnitude, to have the required effect.

But more empirically, GCRs have increased over the past 50-odd years, not decreased - which is consistent with the reduced sunspot activity over the past 4 solar cycles.  So we should have seen increased albedo and a cooling of the planet.  This does not explain recent warming - quite the opposite.

yossarian22c

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #722 on: October 29, 2020, 08:51:05 AM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/10/28/tongass-national-forest-alaska-exempt-roadless-rule-usda/6065610002/

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The federal government announced plans Wednesday to lift restrictions on logging and building roads in the country's largest national forest, a pristine rainforest in Alaska that provides habitat for wolves, bears and salmon.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it has decided to exempt the Tongass National Forest from the so-called roadless rule, which bans road construction and timber harvests with limited exceptions. It applies to nearly one-quarter of all U.S. Forest Service lands.

Nothing like cutting down old growth temperate rain forests to accelerate climate change.

yossarian22c

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #723 on: November 16, 2020, 07:41:12 PM »
Cat 5 storms in mid November.
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The National Hurricane Center said Iota, a Category 5 hurricane, will make landfall Monday night in Nicaragua, bringing with it catastrophic winds and torrential rainfall. As of 1 p.m. ET, Iota has maximum sustained winds near 160 mph and higher gusts.

The life-threatening storm was made more likely by climate change, research shows. Hurricanes are more likely to be larger and more powerful when they form over hotter oceans, because they draw their energy from the water. Climate change is causing sea surface temperatures to rise around the world, and in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the water is consistently about 2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than it was a century ago.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #724 on: November 16, 2020, 08:04:06 PM »
160 mph is... a lot of mph.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #725 on: January 08, 2021, 09:48:49 AM »
Just to distract from the rest of 2020: The Guardian: Climate crisis: 2020 was joint hottest year ever recorded.


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The temperature data released by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed that the past six years have been the hottest six on record. They also showed that Europe saw its hottest year on record, 1.6C above the long-term average, with a searing heatwave hitting western Europe in late July and early August.
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Only 2016 matched the heat in 2020, but that year saw a natural El Niño climate event which boosts temperatures. Without that it is likely 2020 would have been the outright hottest year. Scientists have warned that without urgent action the future for many millions of people “looks black”.

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #726 on: January 15, 2021, 09:25:39 PM »
Well, at least there were only 4 years lost to the imbeciles in the Trump administration: As NASA and NOAA warn of climate emergency, they weather last-minute denial by Trump appointees

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The numbers are in. The hottest seven years in recorded history are: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014.

Notice a trend? As 2020 smashed hurricane and wildfire records, doing $90 billion worth of damage in the United States alone, new data shows last year neck-and-neck with 2016 as the hottest year in recorded history.
But at this point, says NASA climate scientist Kate Marvel, rankings are worthless. It's all about that horrifying trend towards a level of global overheating impossible to control.

"What really matters, and what I think is really significant and really concerning, is that the seven hottest years on record were the past seven years,"

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #727 on: January 25, 2021, 10:51:49 PM »
Sigh.

The Guardian: Global ice loss accelerating at record rate, study finds.

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Rate of loss now in line with worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The melting of ice across the planet is accelerating at a record rate, with the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets speeding up the fastest, research has found.

The rate of loss is now in line with the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading authority on the climate, according to a paper published on Monday in the journal The Cryosphere.

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #728 on: January 25, 2021, 11:14:26 PM »
And there also is geothermal activity identified as taking place underneath both glaciers in the regions identified as seeing significant melting coincidentally enough. (Antarctica and Greenland)

So manmade global warming causes volcanism which causes warning signs of manmade global warming? Neat!

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #729 on: January 26, 2021, 12:21:38 AM »
Also, meanwhile in the Alps...

https://www.srf.ch/news/panorama/aus-dem-gletschereis-wie-uraltes-holz-geschichten-erzaehlt
(Google Translate is likely to be needed, unless you can read German.)

Trunk of a tree that died at the tender age of 337 years old found in the moraine of a receding Swiss Glacier.
The tree is estimated to have died about 10,700 years ago.

So much for it being there, today, than it has been at any time since the previous ice age. That dead tree belongs to our current inter-glacial period.

oldbrian

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #730 on: January 26, 2021, 08:31:49 AM »
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So much for it being there, today, than it has been at any time since the previous ice age

What?


10,000 years ago, an alpine valley in Switzerland was ice free for at least 300 years.  Got it.
What was your next point?

DonaldD

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #731 on: January 26, 2021, 09:04:28 AM »
And there also is geothermal activity identified as taking place underneath both glaciers in the regions identified as seeing significant melting coincidentally enough. (Antarctica and Greenland)

So manmade global warming causes volcanism which causes warning signs of manmade global warming? Neat!

Are you suggesting that geothermal activity has significantly increased in both Greenland and Antarctica in the past 100-150 years?  Given that geothermal heat sources remain effectively steady for periods of tens of millions of years, that would be a pretty huge coincidence... To put it another way, those glaciers grew/were created in the presence of the same level of geothermal activity as is being experienced today.  If the glaciers originally grew in the presence of the same level of vulcanism, then something else must be causing the glacial retreat being observed today.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #732 on: October 05, 2021, 06:21:11 PM »
A handy little graph, apparently from the latest Nobel Prize winners.

It shows the temperature change as you go up in the atmosphere.  Below the stratosphere, average temperatures increased as CO2 levels increased.  Above the stratosphere, it was reversed; temps decreased as CO2 levels increased.

As the sidebar said: "Manabe thus confirmed that the variation in temperatures is due to increased levels of carbon dioxide; if it was caused by increased solar radiation, the entire atmosphere should have warmed up."

IOW, it is NOT the sun.  Anyone who says so has to explain why increased photons do not heat up the upper atmosphere.

Which eliminates any explanation that involves a brighter sun, a closer sun, or even different levels of any type of photons from the sun.  Which guts a whole slew of denialist's theories.

Just remember that graph the next time someone tells you global warming is from the sun.   ;)

yossarian22c

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #733 on: October 06, 2021, 11:50:18 AM »
A handy little graph, apparently from the latest Nobel Prize winners.

It shows the temperature change as you go up in the atmosphere.  Below the stratosphere, average temperatures increased as CO2 levels increased.  Above the stratosphere, it was reversed; temps decreased as CO2 levels increased.

As the sidebar said: "Manabe thus confirmed that the variation in temperatures is due to increased levels of carbon dioxide; if it was caused by increased solar radiation, the entire atmosphere should have warmed up."

IOW, it is NOT the sun.  Anyone who says so has to explain why increased photons do not heat up the upper atmosphere.

Which eliminates any explanation that involves a brighter sun, a closer sun, or even different levels of any type of photons from the sun.  Which guts a whole slew of denialist's theories.

Just remember that graph the next time someone tells you global warming is from the sun.   ;)

Haha, the idea that more evidence will change anyone's mind, such a quaint notion from a scientific age. We live in the social media age, JimBob flat earth will have another theory for why global warming isn't happening or we shouldn't care about it. And we all know those scientists are corrupted by the sweet, sweet, grant money.

TheDrake

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #734 on: October 06, 2021, 02:15:48 PM »
They'll just fall back to, "sure we're warming the planet, but we're not doing **** because China won't."

rightleft22

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #735 on: October 06, 2021, 02:26:23 PM »
Climate change isn't happening because I don't want to change how I do things and I want to keep and get what's mine.
Don't ask me to care about tomorrow Its all about me me me in the now = proof  it can't be happening.

Seriati

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #736 on: October 06, 2021, 06:01:10 PM »
A handy little graph, apparently from the latest Nobel Prize winners.

Yep, from their paper written in 1967, not exactly recent.  https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-0469_1967_024_0241_teotaw_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf.  The relevant section is "c. carbon dioxide" and runs from page 249 to 251.  The chart itself is on page 250.

It's pure math, not a study.  This is pretty much the ideological underpinning of the anthropomorphic carbon forced green house theory.  Heck you still see their conclusion that doubling the C02 content of the atmosphere increases surface temperature by 2.3C floating around (we've increased by a bit over 33% since 1967).

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As the sidebar said: "Manabe thus confirmed that the variation in temperatures is due to increased levels of carbon dioxide; if it was caused by increased solar radiation, the entire atmosphere should have warmed up."

Just to be clear, they won the award for the 1967 mathematics work suggesting how man could be causing global warming, not for actually proving it lately.

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IOW, it is NOT the sun.  Anyone who says so has to explain why increased photons do not heat up the upper atmosphere.

Which eliminates any explanation that involves a brighter sun, a closer sun, or even different levels of any type of photons from the sun.  Which guts a whole slew of denialist's theories.

Just remember that graph the next time someone tells you global warming is from the sun.   ;)

Or maybe you could explain why a math paper from 1967 is more persuasive than later studies with a better understanding of their assumptions in your book?  Most of the counter arguments you are "dismissing" where investigated and published after this paper, and many relied on pointing to assumptions made in the math that may not act as they believed they would.  Impact of clouds is one of those, which you can see if you look at the paper itself and what it assumed on that point.

Seriously though, I have to ask, did you really think this was a new study?  Or that it presented actual data?

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #737 on: October 06, 2021, 06:37:12 PM »
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Seriously though, I have to ask, did you really think this was a new study?  Or that it presented actual data?

I didn't think it was necessarily a new study, but I did assume it presented actual data.  (I wonder, though, if the actual data does back it up. :) )  Thanks for correcting me.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #738 on: October 07, 2021, 01:08:41 PM »
Well, what do you know?  Although it sounds like the confidence level isn't very high, at least one paper finds that troposphere has been warming for the past 39 years, while temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling.  Precisely what would be expected from CO2 induced global warming.  And precisely what would not be expected from temperature increases caused by almost any type of solar insolation, especially from getting closer to the sun or the sun emitting more light.

So while Manabe did not have the data to back him up, apparently his conclusions are still dead-on.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #739 on: October 07, 2021, 01:20:58 PM »
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It's pure math, not a study.  This is pretty much the ideological underpinning of the anthropomorphic carbon forced green house theory.

Just as a clarification, you do realize that the "ideological underpinning of the anthropomorphic carbon forced green house theory" is simply called SCIENCE.  Specifically, our (relatively) long-time understanding of how photons interact with molecules in a gas.

Admittedly, it get more complicated as you add in other atmospheric factors, such as cloud covering and whether clouds reflect more light away from Earth than they reflect back to Earth.  But it is about as ideological as Boyle's law, thermodynamics, and Maxwell's equations.  Which means that people may decide not to believe them, but only do so at their own peril, since the laws themselves don't give a hoot about ideology. :)

TheDrake

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #740 on: October 07, 2021, 11:26:16 PM »
Which ideology supposedly led to the fabrication of overwhelming evidence?

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #741 on: October 08, 2021, 10:27:51 AM »
Which ideology supposedly led to the fabrication of overwhelming evidencedata?

Fixed it for you. Interpretation of the data is still under question. The Data also doesn't take a side, although data can be skewed or otherwise presented in deceptive ways.

And most of the "overwhelming evidence" is based on computer models... Which are themselves questionable for other reasons.

TheDrake

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #742 on: October 08, 2021, 03:36:55 PM »
No but please tell me, which ideology? From the point where we weren't concerned about global warming, to the point where we were, what ideology was driving the gathering, interpretation, and examination of scientific data - which includes plenty of empirical measurements.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #743 on: October 08, 2021, 04:35:42 PM »
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And most of the "overwhelming evidence" is based on computer models... Which are themselves questionable for other reasons.

But the basis of our knowledge of AGW is not based on computer models, but on simple physics.  Increased greenhouse gases lead to increased heat trapped in our atmosphere.  It really is as simple as that.

The only thing the computer models are good for is analyzing the other factors involved in our climate to see if they compensate for that simple forcing.  And the fact that those models have not yet found any other factor or groups of factors that would compensate for AGW and still model our climate indicates that AGW is actually happening.  Not to mention the data that shows that the oceans are heating up, the atmosphere is heating up, deserts are enlarging, glaciers are melting, hurricanes are getting stronger on average, the arctic is warming, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting, and just about every other prediction of the effects of global warming is coming to pass.  ::)

Saying it is "based" on computer models is simply false and wishful thinking. 

Seriati

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #744 on: October 11, 2021, 05:20:59 PM »
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It's pure math, not a study.  This is pretty much the ideological underpinning of the anthropomorphic carbon forced green house theory.

Just as a clarification, you do realize that the "ideological underpinning of the anthropomorphic carbon forced green house theory" is simply called SCIENCE.

Well it's called a hypothesis actually.  And there's no question that their work was ground breaking and innovative.  I'm surprised it's taken this long to be acknowledged in this manner.  I was objecting to citing to an award for the paper that showed the hypothesis was mathemetically possible, as if it was a new "proof" of the claim that can only be demonstrated with data.

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Admittedly, it get more complicated as you add in other atmospheric factors, such as cloud covering and whether clouds reflect more light away from Earth than they reflect back to Earth.  But it is about as ideological as Boyle's law, thermodynamics, and Maxwell's equations.  Which means that people may decide not to believe them, but only do so at their own peril, since the laws themselves don't give a hoot about ideology. :)

You jumped to "laws"?  The math here was innovative, but as a prediction of reality it's only as good as the actual understanding of the systems that under pin it.  What this explained was why a counter-intuitive result would occur in a higher carbon environment.  At least as far as I understand it, it's not a paper that is excluding other contributions to such a result.  Effectively, this says that carbon forced global warming could be occurring even if these "unlikely" results are being measured, and it certainly opens the door for studies showing that it is occurring because of carbon forcing.

Unfortunately that's not what we get.  Instead we get mathematical models that incorporated this paper into the very algorithms used to generate their statistical certainty.  Models that have not been terribly accurate about their predictions (indicating significant gaps in understanding).   Reality is that this paper flat out says that higher Carbon results in certain linkages between lower, middle and upper atmosphere, we have higher carbon ergo we have those tracking results.  But if the source of the temperature change is something other than carbon, the very presence of carbon will still cause the linkages to occur.  How then do you separate out the "carbon" caused the temperature change from the carbon caused the linkage while another source cause the temperature change?  Models can't do that, and that is what hasn't been as convincing.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #745 on: October 11, 2021, 07:20:35 PM »
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At least as far as I understand it, it's not a paper that is excluding other contributions to such a result.

Ah, but the question is, what other contributions could lead to such a result?

It could not be anything exterior to the Earth's atmosphere.  Any kind of insolation would either increase the temperature above the stratosphere as below it or, at best, not affect it at all (if it were the wrong frequency to interact with the atoms).  But for the temperature to decrease above the stratosphere would require an insolation that would simultaneously increase the heat below the stratosphere while decreasing it above it.  IOW, it would have to add energy to the atmosphere below the stratosphere while removing energy above it.  I cannot think of any type of energy source that would do that.

What I can think of is a reflective layer at about the stratospheric level, which reflects infrared light back to the Earth.  Such a system would increase the energy kept below the stratosphere, by increasing the infrared radiation (the radiation from the Sun plus the reflected radiation) while decreasing the radiation to the layer above (the radiation from the Sun less the reflected radiation that would normally come from the Earth).  Which is precisely what you get with an increased Greenhouse effect.

So this effect basically eliminates outside insolation as a possible cause of the heating below the stratosphere.  And what other causes does that leave?

Seriati

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #746 on: October 11, 2021, 09:10:01 PM »
As I understand it your misstating the theory.  If a change in solar radiation was the cause, you'd still see this effect at different levels of carbon, if martians were the cause you'd still see this difference at different levels of carbon.  The paper is explaining why increases in carbon cause the bottom and top of the atmosphere to heat more than you'd expect, while the middle layer cools more than expected, and why those are linked to the carbon level.  Assuming all their assumptions are true, this explains away a factor that would otherwise disprove carbon as a cause.

But solar radiation is ALWAYS the underlying cause of heating, it's what takes us from zero Kelvin (or close thereto) to where we are. If solar radiation increases or decreases by even a small amount, or penetration of solar radiation changes in any way, there will always be an impact on the climate.  Carbon's impact is based on the underlying solar radiation.

Our instrumentation is not really adequate to be sure of what's going on, and adding the confusion of modelling is helpful to consider worst cases but unhelpful in calcifying "beliefs" about science, when questioning should be the rule.

wmLambert

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #747 on: October 12, 2021, 01:31:57 PM »
Today we are experiencing a very ominous solar flare capable of devastating results. After more than a decade of almost zero sunspot formation, we are now reentering the next phase of normalcy. Speak of science for a moment. On the stellar system range - a planet in the liquid water distance from the sun maintains that ability via what the sun does. Aside from occasional flares, the sun cools down, resulting in a cooing planet. Generally, Cool is bad. Warming is good. The Chinese scientist have predicted devastating cooling and their government is securing arable land along the equitorial belt to guarantee food for their more northerly nation. Yet here in the USA, politicians are promoting the nonsense that warming is bad. I'd rather follow science than bureaucracy.

NobleHunter

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #748 on: October 12, 2021, 02:31:56 PM »
Do you have a reference for the solar flare? My usual astronomy nerd hasn't said anything about it.

yossarian22c

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #749 on: October 12, 2021, 03:10:08 PM »
Do you have a reference for the solar flare? My usual astronomy nerd hasn't said anything about it.

Google results show a moderate flare. Increased chance for northern lights a little farther south. Probably no power or satellite issues.