Author Topic: here comes the next ice age  (Read 124565 times)

NobleHunter

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #750 on: October 12, 2021, 03:13:32 PM »
Oh, neat. Always nice to get some pretty lights.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #751 on: October 12, 2021, 05:23:30 PM »
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The paper is explaining why increases in carbon cause the bottom and top of the atmosphere to heat more than you'd expect, while the middle layer cools more than expected, and why those are linked to the carbon level.

You're misstated what the chart says, Serati.  Look at it again.

The blue line is temperatures at 150 ppm CO2.  At 40 km, the temperature is about 0 degrees C.

The red line is temperatures at 600 ppm CO2.  At 40 km, the temperature is about -30 degrees C.

At the top level, there is a decrease in the amount of heat, not an increase.

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If solar radiation increases or decreases by even a small amount, or penetration of solar radiation changes in any way, there will always be an impact on the climate.  Carbon's impact is based on the underlying solar radiation.

You are correct as far as you go.  Increased insolation will increase the greenhouse effect and increase the Earth's temperature.  It will act as a multiplier for the increased insolation.

So for that alone it is a problem, in that it makes the problem of natural heating even worse.

And, as CO2 levels increase, it increasingly make the problem worse.

But remember, scientists are tracking how much insolation the Earth is receiving.  It is being taken into account.  And so far there has not been seen an increase in insolation that would account for the increased heating of the Earth.  Only when you take into account the multiplicative effect of increased greenhouse gases can you account for the increases in temperature.

And the multiplicative effect happens even if solar insolation remains constant. :(

So it really doesn't matter if there is an increase in solar insolation or not.  Temperatures will rise from increased greenhouse gases whether there is increased solar insolation or not.

The cooling above the stratosphere shows that.

Wayward Son

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #752 on: October 12, 2021, 05:27:17 PM »
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Aside from occasional flares, the sun cools down, resulting in a cooing planet.

Yeah, but the sun's cooling happens over hundreds of millions of years, not decades.  And it is counteracted by the increase in the sun's diameter due to the inert matter in it's center.

Eventually, Earth will die from being burned up by a huge red sun.  But you and I won't live to see it. :)

Unfortunately, you and I may very well live to see our climate dramatically changed by global warming. :(

wmLambert

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #753 on: October 12, 2021, 05:54:10 PM »
Yeah, but the sun's cooling happens over hundreds of millions of years, not decades.  And it is counteracted by the increase in the sun's diameter due to the inert matter in it's center.

Eventually, Earth will die from being burned up by a huge red sun.  But you and I won't live to see it. :)

Unfortunately, you and I may very well live to see our climate dramatically changed by global warming. :(

Of course a sun's lifetime is very long. That was the point. We are still in the same position we were when all the scientists were predicting global cooling. The two extremes are only politically charged - not a scientific fact. Carbon in the atmosphere does not move us out of being in a short warming hiatus during an ice age. As the fear of warming is publicized, you don't hear of the benefits coming from it. Basically, the warmer it gets, the more food can be grown to feed people. The nay-Sayers pretend the warming would produce desert conditions - but that is not a real threat. We made more challenges to people near deserts when we stupidly outlawed  freon when the patents ran out that made refrigeration finally affordable. The new ban and increased price for storing food killed far more people than freon could ever have done.

Twenty years ago, the same so-called scientists said we would all die in ten years. Politicians said the oceans would rise and the coasts would be flooded. Didn't happen. China is creating islands in the middle of the ocean, but people are afraid of shrinking shorelines?

wmLambert

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #754 on: October 12, 2021, 06:05:42 PM »


yossarian22c

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #756 on: October 21, 2021, 11:33:27 AM »
...
 As the fear of warming is publicized, you don't hear of the benefits coming from it. Basically, the warmer it gets, the more food can be grown to feed people. The nay-Sayers pretend the warming would produce desert conditions - but that is not a real threat.
...

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/great-western-drought-explained
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Yes, another severe drought is sweeping across the western United States. California is now two years into a deep drought after suffering from its worst drought in 1,200 years between 2012 and 2016.

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/20/1047700783/climate-change-is-bad-for-your-health-and-plans-to-boost-economies-may-make-it-w
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It may seem obvious: Heat kills. Wildfires burn. Flooding drowns.

But the sprawling health effects of a rapidly warming world can also be subtle. Heat sparks violence and disrupts sleep. Wildfire smoke can trigger respiratory events thousands of miles away. Flooding can increase rates of suicide and mental health problems. Warmer winters expand the range of disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks.

A new report from the medical journal The Lancet finds that human-caused climate change is worsening human health in just about every measurable way

Just keep telling your self how great that warmer weather is. Bigger storms, bigger droughts, more heat waves, more wild fires, more deaths.

TheDeamon

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #757 on: October 22, 2021, 12:31:42 PM »
Western Wildfires, especially in California are a complicated matter.

Prior to "the white man" coming to the area, natives in the wooded areas often practiced controlled burns to help prevent the risks presented by the seasonal wildfires otherwise. Land management, go figure.

To further complicate things, the white man started diverting surface water for agriculture in massive quantities, and even depleted many fresh-water aquifers(after having depleted a massive inland lake in the central valley during the 19th Century) which meant ground-water often went from being just a few feet below ground level(easily accessed by a tree or other drought resistant plant) to dozens, if not hundreds, of feet below ground level due to changes in the moisture gradient. Most plants cannot reach that water, which means even the "drought resistant vegetation" of California can no longer cope because humans removed the water table that historically supported said plants. Which means there is a Water management issue strongly in play in California happening on top of the Land management issues.

Then we have Land Use to consider on top of the previous issues, although Land Use and Land Management are very closely related. Human activity, be it recreational, power transmission, transportation, or arson, also have been playing major roles in the wildfires California has been experiencing, especially as it relates to "off-season" wildfires now giving California an effective year-round "fire season" these days.

Then in addition to that the Western US has a record of frequent, and even decades-long drought cycles stretching back thousands of years. Ask the Anasazi about climate variability in the American South-West.

TheDrake

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #758 on: October 22, 2021, 02:45:04 PM »
You may not realize it, but there are countries other than the US, and they are all getting an uptick in fires. Australia to the Amazon rainforest.

wmLambert

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Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #759 on: November 03, 2021, 05:28:36 PM »
No.There are less serious storms and bad weather; less fires and other problems. When cold weather rolls in, there are fewer crops to harvest and people die. The USA is not the only nation experiencing weather problems. Africa has seen a developing Sahara over recent history, yet our response was to outlaw freon. People died.

Check your science. The Pacific is surrounded by volcanic activities which are causing far more problems than AGW.