Author Topic: here comes the next ice age  (Read 179874 times)

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #750 on: October 12, 2021, 03:13:32 PM »
Oh, neat. Always nice to get some pretty lights.

Wayward Son

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #751 on: October 12, 2021, 05:23:30 PM »
Quote
The paper is explaining why increases in carbon cause the bottom and top of the atmosphere to heat more than you'd expect, while the middle layer cools more than expected, and why those are linked to the carbon level.

You're misstated what the chart says, Serati.  Look at it again.

The blue line is temperatures at 150 ppm CO2.  At 40 km, the temperature is about 0 degrees C.

The red line is temperatures at 600 ppm CO2.  At 40 km, the temperature is about -30 degrees C.

At the top level, there is a decrease in the amount of heat, not an increase.

Quote
If solar radiation increases or decreases by even a small amount, or penetration of solar radiation changes in any way, there will always be an impact on the climate.  Carbon's impact is based on the underlying solar radiation.

You are correct as far as you go.  Increased insolation will increase the greenhouse effect and increase the Earth's temperature.  It will act as a multiplier for the increased insolation.

So for that alone it is a problem, in that it makes the problem of natural heating even worse.

And, as CO2 levels increase, it increasingly make the problem worse.

But remember, scientists are tracking how much insolation the Earth is receiving.  It is being taken into account.  And so far there has not been seen an increase in insolation that would account for the increased heating of the Earth.  Only when you take into account the multiplicative effect of increased greenhouse gases can you account for the increases in temperature.

And the multiplicative effect happens even if solar insolation remains constant. :(

So it really doesn't matter if there is an increase in solar insolation or not.  Temperatures will rise from increased greenhouse gases whether there is increased solar insolation or not.

The cooling above the stratosphere shows that.

Wayward Son

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #752 on: October 12, 2021, 05:27:17 PM »
Quote
Aside from occasional flares, the sun cools down, resulting in a cooing planet.

Yeah, but the sun's cooling happens over hundreds of millions of years, not decades.  And it is counteracted by the increase in the sun's diameter due to the inert matter in it's center.

Eventually, Earth will die from being burned up by a huge red sun.  But you and I won't live to see it. :)

Unfortunately, you and I may very well live to see our climate dramatically changed by global warming. :(

wmLambert

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #753 on: October 12, 2021, 05:54:10 PM »
Yeah, but the sun's cooling happens over hundreds of millions of years, not decades.  And it is counteracted by the increase in the sun's diameter due to the inert matter in it's center.

Eventually, Earth will die from being burned up by a huge red sun.  But you and I won't live to see it. :)

Unfortunately, you and I may very well live to see our climate dramatically changed by global warming. :(

Of course a sun's lifetime is very long. That was the point. We are still in the same position we were when all the scientists were predicting global cooling. The two extremes are only politically charged - not a scientific fact. Carbon in the atmosphere does not move us out of being in a short warming hiatus during an ice age. As the fear of warming is publicized, you don't hear of the benefits coming from it. Basically, the warmer it gets, the more food can be grown to feed people. The nay-Sayers pretend the warming would produce desert conditions - but that is not a real threat. We made more challenges to people near deserts when we stupidly outlawed  freon when the patents ran out that made refrigeration finally affordable. The new ban and increased price for storing food killed far more people than freon could ever have done.

Twenty years ago, the same so-called scientists said we would all die in ten years. Politicians said the oceans would rise and the coasts would be flooded. Didn't happen. China is creating islands in the middle of the ocean, but people are afraid of shrinking shorelines?

wmLambert

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #754 on: October 12, 2021, 06:05:42 PM »


yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #756 on: October 21, 2021, 11:33:27 AM »
...
 As the fear of warming is publicized, you don't hear of the benefits coming from it. Basically, the warmer it gets, the more food can be grown to feed people. The nay-Sayers pretend the warming would produce desert conditions - but that is not a real threat.
...

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/great-western-drought-explained
Quote
Yes, another severe drought is sweeping across the western United States. California is now two years into a deep drought after suffering from its worst drought in 1,200 years between 2012 and 2016.

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/20/1047700783/climate-change-is-bad-for-your-health-and-plans-to-boost-economies-may-make-it-w
Quote
It may seem obvious: Heat kills. Wildfires burn. Flooding drowns.

But the sprawling health effects of a rapidly warming world can also be subtle. Heat sparks violence and disrupts sleep. Wildfire smoke can trigger respiratory events thousands of miles away. Flooding can increase rates of suicide and mental health problems. Warmer winters expand the range of disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks.

A new report from the medical journal The Lancet finds that human-caused climate change is worsening human health in just about every measurable way

Just keep telling your self how great that warmer weather is. Bigger storms, bigger droughts, more heat waves, more wild fires, more deaths.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #757 on: October 22, 2021, 12:31:42 PM »
Western Wildfires, especially in California are a complicated matter.

Prior to "the white man" coming to the area, natives in the wooded areas often practiced controlled burns to help prevent the risks presented by the seasonal wildfires otherwise. Land management, go figure.

To further complicate things, the white man started diverting surface water for agriculture in massive quantities, and even depleted many fresh-water aquifers(after having depleted a massive inland lake in the central valley during the 19th Century) which meant ground-water often went from being just a few feet below ground level(easily accessed by a tree or other drought resistant plant) to dozens, if not hundreds, of feet below ground level due to changes in the moisture gradient. Most plants cannot reach that water, which means even the "drought resistant vegetation" of California can no longer cope because humans removed the water table that historically supported said plants. Which means there is a Water management issue strongly in play in California happening on top of the Land management issues.

Then we have Land Use to consider on top of the previous issues, although Land Use and Land Management are very closely related. Human activity, be it recreational, power transmission, transportation, or arson, also have been playing major roles in the wildfires California has been experiencing, especially as it relates to "off-season" wildfires now giving California an effective year-round "fire season" these days.

Then in addition to that the Western US has a record of frequent, and even decades-long drought cycles stretching back thousands of years. Ask the Anasazi about climate variability in the American South-West.

TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #758 on: October 22, 2021, 02:45:04 PM »
You may not realize it, but there are countries other than the US, and they are all getting an uptick in fires. Australia to the Amazon rainforest.

wmLambert

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #759 on: November 03, 2021, 05:28:36 PM »
No.There are less serious storms and bad weather; less fires and other problems. When cold weather rolls in, there are fewer crops to harvest and people die. The USA is not the only nation experiencing weather problems. Africa has seen a developing Sahara over recent history, yet our response was to outlaw freon. People died.

Check your science. The Pacific is surrounded by volcanic activities which are causing far more problems than AGW.

rightleft22

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #760 on: February 09, 2022, 05:33:47 PM »
good news? Breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60312633

Interesting anyway. Also some progress on energy storage systems.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #761 on: February 10, 2022, 03:43:02 PM »
good news? Breakthrough on nuclear fusion energy
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60312633

Interesting anyway. Also some progress on energy storage systems.

It was a positive test result for the next prototype that is being built in 2025. I'm hopeful but reminded of my physics professor in college (20 years ago), who said nuclear fusion had been 20 years out his entire career and he was 70 at the time. Viable fusion for commercial energy still seems 20 years out.

Its really, really, hard to get enough pressure/heat/energy into a small space to cause fusion without causing an explosion and then to be able to get more energy back out that you can convert to electricity.

Its good to know they are still making progress, but we shouldn't bank on fusion to be the panacea that cures all our problems. It has humongous potential and we should keep spending the big bucks on research and engineering to see if we can make it happen. The down side is its just really hard to get more energy out and converted to electricity than you put into getting and maintaining a reaction.

yossarian22c

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #762 on: February 10, 2022, 03:49:11 PM »
https://xkcd.com/678/

Hover text on the joke for researcher translation: "A technology that is 20 years away will be 20 years away indefinitely."

That being said I do think if we keep investing in fusion it will be a reality in my children's lifetime. Part of the reason 20 years out stays 20 years out is that its hard to drive investment on something on that long of a timespan. But fusion technology has continually improved over the last 60 years. The article linked to said the fusion reaction was sustained for 5 seconds. That's a big improvement over the reactions that were measured on time scales well under a second that I was reading about 20 years ago.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #763 on: February 10, 2022, 11:21:04 PM »
https://xkcd.com/678/

Hover text on the joke for researcher translation: "A technology that is 20 years away will be 20 years away indefinitely."

That being said I do think if we keep investing in fusion it will be a reality in my children's lifetime. Part of the reason 20 years out stays 20 years out is that its hard to drive investment on something on that long of a timespan. But fusion technology has continually improved over the last 60 years. The article linked to said the fusion reaction was sustained for 5 seconds. That's a big improvement over the reactions that were measured on time scales well under a second that I was reading about 20 years ago.

And from what I recall reading a few years ago, (not bothering to check for more recent), they're starting to reach the "break even point" on (heat) energy produced matching energy used to create the reaction in the first place. So they're moving much closer to the point of trying to figure out how to recover that heat energy and use it to make power.

Mynnion

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #764 on: February 11, 2022, 10:37:57 AM »
They are still striving to hit the break even point.  The major hurdles at this point are creating a stable plasma environment.  I believe they have now reached 5 seconds.  They are also using machine learning and AI to evaluate the process and it is significantly speeding things up.  They are hopeful to have a commercially viable system by 2030 but it is really hard to tell.  Near limitless clean and cheap energy will certainly be a game changer.

I find it interesting that a significant group of people have not figured out that electricity will be replacing fossil fuels and do all they can to oppose the new tech.  The nations that do the best job of developing and promoting electrical tech will be the future economic world leaders.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #765 on: February 11, 2022, 10:52:21 AM »
From the article I read, the 5 second limit was because the test reactor couldn't sustain it any longer but there's no inherent reason why it can't be sustained for longer. So ITER should be able to keep it going for substantially longer.

I just wish we could get power out of it more directly than using it to boil water and spin a turbine.

Mynnion

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #766 on: February 11, 2022, 11:49:04 AM »
That is my understanding also.  There are also some other promising models being developed in the US that will use boron rather than tritium.  There is currently a huge amount of investment going on towards these technologies which I see as a promising sign.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #767 on: February 11, 2022, 12:04:49 PM »
I notice that Lockheed's sexy non-torus design hasn't been in the news lately. It's too bad because a gas turbine sized fusion reactor would be very useful.

TheDeamon

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #768 on: February 11, 2022, 08:07:33 PM »
They are still striving to hit the break even point.  The major hurdles at this point are creating a stable plasma environment.  I believe they have now reached 5 seconds.  They are also using machine learning and AI to evaluate the process and it is significantly speeding things up.  They are hopeful to have a commercially viable system by 2030 but it is really hard to tell.  Near limitless clean and cheap energy will certainly be a game changer.

I find it interesting that a significant group of people have not figured out that electricity will be replacing fossil fuels and do all they can to oppose the new tech.  The nations that do the best job of developing and promoting electrical tech will be the future economic world leaders.

Wait for it, they will. It happened with nuclear fission. Certain "activist" groups who pay lipservice to caring about the environment did everything they could to torpedo fission in the 60's and 70's because widespread adoption of cheap, inexpensive and reasonably safe nuclear power would make it harder for them to make resource scarcity arguments.

Once Fusion starts to look viable, they'll likely start getting into the "theoretical byproducts" (which may be radioactive) and the sheer scale and type of rare earth materials needed to build a plant and try to attack it that way. It shouldn't get anywhere nearly as much traction as it did with fission, but time will tell.

Mynnion

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: here comes the next ice age
« Reply #769 on: February 11, 2022, 09:17:44 PM »
Quote
Once Fusion starts to look viable, they'll likely start getting into the "theoretical byproducts" (which may be radioactive) and the sheer scale and type of rare earth materials needed to build a plant and try to attack it that way. It shouldn't get anywhere nearly as much traction as it did with fission, but time will tell.

That is why the use of boron instead of tritium looks so good.  Tritium has potential radioactive elements whereas boron doesn't.  Cheap energy will be  game changer but you are right that there will always be those who scream about anything new.  But to be fair there are also those who fuss about anything not new.