Author Topic: covid-19 outside the US  (Read 7428 times)

TheDrake

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covid-19 outside the US
« on: March 27, 2020, 03:26:03 PM »
Maybe we can have one thread that stays hygenically clean of Trump, Republicans, Democrats and US politics and US response?

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Indian authorities in the northern state of Punjab have quarantined around 40,000 residents from 20 villages following a Covid-19 outbreak linked to just one man.

The 70-year-old died of coronavirus - a fact found out only after his death.

The man, a preacher, had ignored advice to self quarantine after returning from a trip to Italy and Germany, officials told BBC Punjabi's Arvind Chhabra.

India has 640 confirmed cases of the virus, of which 30 are in Punjab.

However, experts worry that the real number of positive cases could be far higher. India has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, although efforts are under way to ramp up capacity.

There are fears that an outbreak in the country of 1.3 billion people could result in a catastrophe.

The man, identified as Baldev Singh, had visited a large gathering to celebrate the Sikh festival of Hola Mohalla shortly before he died.

The six-day festival attracts around 10,000 people every day.

Coronavirus: India 'super spreader' quarantines 40,000 people

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2020, 03:29:21 PM »
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"We have only one functional ventilator, which is not even in very good condition," said Collins Anyachi, a physician at a teaching hospital in Calabar, a Nigerian city in Cross River state that borders Cameroon. Anyachi added that fewer than 10 out of the approximately 600 doctors that serve the area's two million people have access to personal protection equipment, such as face masks and surgical gowns, that can make all the difference in terms of whether medical staff contract the virus.

In South Africa, which has more coronavirus infections than anywhere else on the continent – more than 900 as of March 26 – the government has prohibited all but essential workers from going outside, even for exercise or to walk a dog. Also forbidden: speaking in-person to a neighbor. But crowded townships, where services are basic at the best of times, make it harder for people to observe social distancing measures.


Coronavirus infections in Africa are rapidly rising. Its weak health systems may buckle

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2020, 03:40:14 PM »
I went to look at Japan, because they had a very low doubling rate. But looks can be deceiving. These numbers are attributed to lack of testing. Meanwhile...

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Over the weekend, despite most of the world being in a state of self-policed lock down, Japanese people flocked in the thousands to cherry blossom hotspots across Tokyo, in celebration of the coming of spring. I visited Shinjuku National Park on Sunday afternoon and witnessed as thousands of revellers — all bottlenecking paths, posing for pictures, having picnics, and intermingling without care — bucked the global trend of social distancing and self-isolation in favor of tradition. Similarly, on Friday night, Shibuya crossing was as busy as ever, restaurants and bars were full of jovial patrons, and the line to the recently opened Shibuya Sky was at least 100 strong, with most viewings booked out entirely. As Harumi Murakami described it for the East Asia Forum: “The contrast between Beijing and Tokyo is striking and unflattering to Japan. Downtown Beijing is deserted as people try to avoid spreading the virus by staying home. Tokyo looks like business as usual, with trains and subways still packed.”

Japan’s Limited Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

That sounds terrifying. Maybe this is a test case for whether the world is overreacting with distancing measures.

rightleft22

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2020, 03:48:06 PM »
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That sounds terrifying. Maybe this is a test case for whether the world is overreacting with distancing measures.

Interesting to keep an eye on Japan. If they don't see a dramatic increase the question will be why not.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2020, 04:23:16 PM »
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That sounds terrifying. Maybe this is a test case for whether the world is overreacting with distancing measures.

Interesting to keep an eye on Japan. If they don't see a dramatic increase the question will be why not.

The tricky part might be the lack of testing. They might not know people are dying of it, although it will be hard to deny dire overload like running out of hospital beds.

They are looking to reopen their schools also, according to the article.

cherrypoptart

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2020, 07:05:13 AM »
Most of the clusters seem to have come from gatherings indoors like at the South Korean mega-church, inside ski resorts, birthday parties, conventions, and so on. I have to wonder how easy it is to catch outdoors. How long does the Sun take to kill the virus? Sure it is spreading in Africa and India but the people there gather indoors too. Did the spring breakers catch it from each other while they were outside at the beach or was it while in cars and hotels? It'd be interesting if they could test for something like that, how contagious it is inside versus outside. On the other hand, trillions of viruses fall on us all the time while we're outside. I also wonder if these could be some of them. And does your initial viral exposure make a big difference in how severe your illness is likely to be? For instance, could medical workers who may get exposed to enormous initial virus loads suffer worse outcomes than someone who catches it from the air walking around Walmart and may only get a relatively small initial viral load so it gives their body a lot more time to fight. So basically I'm wondering how dangerous walking around to watch the cherry blossoms  really is. Of course getting there on crowded trains and buses would be a definite problem.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2020, 10:11:21 AM »
All good questions, but many of them won't be answered until after the pandemic abates.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2020, 12:33:02 PM »
Most of the clusters seem to have come from gatherings indoors like at the South Korean mega-church, inside ski resorts, birthday parties, conventions, and so on. I have to wonder how easy it is to catch outdoors. How long does the Sun take to kill the virus? Sure it is spreading in Africa and India but the people there gather indoors too. Did the spring breakers catch it from each other while they were outside at the beach or was it while in cars and hotels? It'd be interesting if they could test for something like that, how contagious it is inside versus outside. On the other hand, trillions of viruses fall on us all the time while we're outside. I also wonder if these could be some of them. And does your initial viral exposure make a big difference in how severe your illness is likely to be? For instance, could medical workers who may get exposed to enormous initial virus loads suffer worse outcomes than someone who catches it from the air walking around Walmart and may only get a relatively small initial viral load so it gives their body a lot more time to fight. So basically I'm wondering how dangerous walking around to watch the cherry blossoms  really is. Of course getting there on crowded trains and buses would be a definite problem.

Sun can kill the virus fairly quickly (3-5 minutes).  Japenese study found a 20 fold reduced risk of catching it in open air venues versus closed venues.  That said - I suspect it isn't just the sun exposure, but rather people tend to touch handles a lot when in closed venues (doors to enter the venue, door to bathrooms, etc.)

Viral load upon contracting it is a major issue in clinical course - the greater the exposure the worse the outcome.  (Which is why dentists are especially in danger).

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2020, 08:03:41 AM »
Tokyo reported yet another single-day record of 68 new cases of COVID-19 infections Sunday, bringing the total number in the virus-hit capital to 430.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2020, 01:55:12 PM »
The Hungarian Parliament has voted by 137 to 53 to accept the government's request for the power to rule by decree during the coronavirus emergency.

bbc

rightleft22

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2020, 03:59:29 PM »
Sweden looks like a place we should watch. They haven't implemented a total shut down and are confident there medial system can handle what comes

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sweden-coronavirus-change-1.5522852

ScottF

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2020, 06:55:09 PM »
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

yossarian22c

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2020, 03:25:26 PM »
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

Sort of; they closed large gatherings, high schools, colleges, and have people practicing social distancing. Sweden is a model for society after the full lock downs quash this initial spread. Their strategy isn't let the virus run rampant through younger people to build herd immunity in their society. What we need to see is if their measures are enough to keep the virus under control when implemented before the number of cases explodes.

ScottF

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2020, 05:46:40 PM »
Norway, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria begin to relax lockdown restrictions. This may start happening around the globe sooner than a lot of people thought

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-european-countries-beginning-to-lift-lockdown-measures-11969857

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2020, 08:37:59 PM »
Norway, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria begin to relax lockdown restrictions. This may start happening around the globe sooner than a lot of people thought

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-european-countries-beginning-to-lift-lockdown-measures-11969857

EU is pretty much going to be forced into it, which could be painful for them later on.

Remember, one of the requirements for EU Membership is a cap on their national debt as a % of GDP as I recall.

So they can't just deficit spend their way out of it.

Aris Katsaris

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2020, 03:17:27 AM »
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Remember, one of the requirements for EU Membership is a cap on their national debt as a % of GDP as I recall.

So they can't just deficit spend their way out of it.

I am not completely sure, but I think this requirement you mention is solely about Eurozone membership.

Of the 4 countries listed, only Austria is in the Eurozone. (Norway isn't in the EU at all, while Denmark and Czech Republic are in the EU, but not in the Eurozone)

Also I'm pretty sure this requirement has been suspended for the duration of the crisis -- in fact the entire EU is currently in intense debates about how they'll handle the crisis, what sort of financial aid will be given, whether common bonds will be issued etc. Much is currently in flux.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2020, 09:16:31 AM »
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.Mario Centeno, Portuguese finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, said talks would continue, after Italy refused to abandon its plea for “coronabonds” to share the debt burden for coronavirus recovery across the EU.

“We came close to a deal but we are not there yet,” Centeno wrote on Twitter of the talks, which began via videoconference on Tuesday afternoon and continued through the night. “I suspended the Eurogroup [meeting and we will] continue tomorrow.”

yossarian22c

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2020, 10:51:00 AM »
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The prime minister was being kept in St Thomas' Hospital in London "for close monitoring" and remained clinically stable, his official spokesman said.

Its good his condition doesn't seem to be getting worse. So far it seems like rest and oxygen have kept him stable. But the fact he's being held in the ICU for multiple days is cause for concern.

fizz

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2020, 11:31:52 AM »
Lombardy hospitals have published a study they did on a sample of about 1600 patients admitted to ICUs in Lombardy.
(https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365)
There are a lot of stats about the average age, sex, previous illness of patients, but the statistic that catches the eye is that over the complete course of these patients, the final mortality of the admitted to ICUs is 26%.

(a summing up sample of the stats: https://www.ilpost.it/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/covid-lombardia-tabella-2.png)

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2020, 12:05:59 PM »
the final mortality of the admitted to ICUs is 26%.

That is in line with expectations based on China - 80% don't need hospitalization, 15% need just supplemental oxygen; 5% ICU - of those admitted to ICU 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 die.  Giving a mortality of 1-1.5%.

fizz

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2020, 12:15:18 PM »
That is in line with expectations based on China - 80% don't need hospitalization, 15% need just supplemental oxygen; 5% ICU - of those admitted to ICU 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 die.  Giving a mortality of 1-1.5%.

Yep, but if you check the sum up table, of those about 1600, 58% are still in ICU.
26% dead, 16% discharged, and 58% still in ICU.
Now, hopefully the percentage of those still in ICU that will die will be low, but still, it means it takes a loooong time to recover.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2020, 12:24:16 PM »
Yep, but if you check the sum up table, of those about 1600, 58% are still in ICU.
26% dead, 16% discharged, and 58% still in ICU.
Now, hopefully the percentage of those still in ICU that will die will be low, but still, it means it takes a loooong time to recover.

Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2020, 06:00:16 PM »
Yep, but if you check the sum up table, of those about 1600, 58% are still in ICU.
26% dead, 16% discharged, and 58% still in ICU.
Now, hopefully the percentage of those still in ICU that will die will be low, but still, it means it takes a loooong time to recover.

Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.

And why bedspace and ventilators has been such a point of discussion. Once they're in a bed, and put on a ventilator, they're often on it for a week+ or they die. So even if everything else was "flu-like" they'd still need to basically triple their capacity in the ICU to handle just that one change. But it isn't the only change in relation to the flu.

ScottF

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2020, 06:12:17 PM »
Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.
Are you saying people who's flu also worsens to the point of needing a ventilator typically recover in 3-5 days?

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #24 on: April 08, 2020, 06:15:54 PM »
Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.
Are you saying people who's flu also worsens to the point of needing a ventilator typically recover in 3-5 days?

He phrased it poorly. Flu victims very rarely spend more than 3 to 5 days on a ventilator. Covid19 patients rarely spend less than a week on one, assuming they don't die first.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #25 on: April 08, 2020, 06:25:08 PM »
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Similarly, ventilated 2009 influenza A(H1N1) patients in Mexico who survived had median of 15 days (IQR: 8–26 days) on a mechanical ventilator, whereas nonsurvivors had a median of 7.5 days (IQR: 3–13.5 days) [8]

8. Domínguez-Cherit G, Lapinsky SE, Macias AE, et al. Critically Ill patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico. JAMA 2009; 302:1880–7. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

The median generally isn't rare, is it? What am I missing?

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #26 on: April 08, 2020, 07:53:30 PM »
The median generally isn't rare, is it? What am I missing?

Here is the source for the numbers,

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Average duration of ventilation for the 42 ICUs ranged from 2.6 to 7.9 days, but 60% of this variation was accounted for by differences in patient characteristics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8697853

Some other source was reporting it as 3-7 days, but I don't recall what that source was.  It looks like this is all ICU admissions rather than Flu - don't know if the source I was recollecting from said Flu, or if I misremembered.

Looks like swine flu

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The average duration of ventilatory support was 8 days with a minimum duration of 2 days

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3275972/


For COVID-19, earliest extubation was 8 days,

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“The earliest extubation occurred 8 days after initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation, which suggests that acute respiratory failure due to Covid-19 may require prolonged mechanical ventilation lasting days to weeks,” they wrote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/07/the-health-202-at-least-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators-don-t-make-it/5e8b91bc88e0fa101a75bede/

Uptodate says 2 weeks or more for COVID-19,

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Accurate data on duration of ventilation are limited but suggest prolonged mechanical ventilation for two weeks or more (table 1).

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-critical-care-issues?source=related_link

I find lots of sources state 'at least two weeks' but none provide what mean or median stays are.

ScottF

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2020, 02:31:20 PM »
Some good news: Boris Johnson is out of the ICU after three days and feeling better. Not unexpected, given his age, but good to see anyway.

DonaldD

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2020, 11:40:52 AM »
So... the number of reported infections in India has been doubling every 2.5-3 days over the past week and a half... I expect that India's ability to isolate people is going to be limited, especially in certain sub-populations that live in single room shanties and slums.  Food distribution is also problematic, not to mention that direct access to refrigeration and fresh water in the most vulnerable populations is very limited. Many people are going to be forced into contact with others, on a regular basis, or will risk starvation.

We will see soon enough, but India might very well become the new hotspot for the pandemic in the next few weeks.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2020, 11:57:41 AM »
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2020, 03:58:21 PM »
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.

It isn't even under-reporting, they simply don't have enough testing capacity. They're going to make Italy and New York's experiences seem extremely pleasant by comparison. Crunch is probably going to get his wish of seeing what happens when the virus is allowed to run rampant across a large population that does have access to "the Trump Pills" as most of them are made in India in the first place.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #31 on: April 11, 2020, 04:30:37 PM »
India has been on strict lock down since the 24th, so 17 to 18 days so far and are extending it for longer.  Probably 4+ weeks.

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On 24 March, India shut its $2.9 trillion (£2.3tn) economy, closing its businesses and issuing strict stay-at-home orders to more than a billion people. Air, road and rail transport systems were suspended.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52255011

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Across India, vehicular traffic has been cut to almost zero. Big industries billowing black smoke into the atmosphere are closed. Construction sites that are usually buzzing with activity, spewing dust and dry cement particles into the air, are eerily vacant.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/10/831592401/with-coronavirus-lockdown-indias-cities-see-clear-blue-skies-as-air-pollution-dr

So no they aren't "letting in run rampant".  They aren't doing much testing though so their number of cases and number dead due to COVID-19 is way off.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 04:35:04 PM by LetterRip »

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #32 on: April 11, 2020, 09:21:06 PM »
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.

It isn't even under-reporting, they simply don't have enough testing capacity. They're going to make Italy and New York's experiences seem extremely pleasant by comparison. Crunch is probably going to get his wish of seeing what happens when the virus is allowed to run rampant across a large population that does have access to "the Trump Pills" as most of them are made in India in the first place.

I didn't mean they were deliberately under reporting, just the reasons you said. Due to logistics meant people being able to get to a plane with tests and having them administered.

ScottF

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #33 on: April 12, 2020, 01:06:57 AM »
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.
They're going to make Italy and New York's experiences seem extremely pleasant by comparison.

Is this your speculation? I ask because you state it as a certainty.

DonaldD

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #34 on: April 12, 2020, 07:29:26 AM »
Is this your speculation? I ask because you state it as a certainty.
Well, what do you think, ScottF?  (YouTube: Entropic Time)

DonaldD

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #35 on: April 12, 2020, 08:30:12 AM »
Brazil looks to be another possible hotspot - with Bolsonaro dismissing concerns about the virus, social distancing measures being applied haphazardly at best, and with the upcoming influenza season in the southern hemisphere, this could turn into the 'test case' of policies that prioritize the economy over public health. Newsweek: Brazil and COVID-19

DJQuag

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #36 on: April 12, 2020, 05:14:04 PM »
Brazil will be fine. Capitalism and sovereignty are literally what the world runs on and Brazil has plenty of both.

And by that I mean a whole lot of people are about to be die, but it'll be *fine,* and the country will march on and have some interesting things written into history books a decade or two from now. Which children will read/be taught from, and they'll grow up knowing that's the world.

So obviously from a perspective of a 2050 Brazilian you should be ashamed for trying to undermine the minds of the youth.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 05:22:56 PM by DJQuag »

Crunch

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2020, 08:24:08 AM »
Brazil will be fine. Capitalism and sovereignty are literally what the world runs on and Brazil has plenty of both.

And by that I mean a whole lot of people are about to be die, but it'll be *fine,* and the country will march on and have some interesting things written into history books a decade or two from now. Which children will read/be taught from, and they'll grow up knowing that's the world.

So obviously from a perspective of a 2050 Brazilian you should be ashamed for trying to undermine the minds of the youth.

“To be fair, the Reptilians can be sneaky.

I really wouldn't put it past their ways. God. Do you think the Demoplaugerats are are in this? Could they be? PS I never got into BTFS”

(awesome)

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2020, 10:29:13 AM »
Any country that has large numbers of urban poor that can't 'safe distance' - because they live in high density; are forced to use public transportation; can't shelter in place (can't risk the loss of income, or don't have a place to go, or has a job that can't be done at home and is allowed to stay open); etc.  You are going to end up with those poor people seeing extremely high infection rates.

India and Brazil both have large such populations, but so does the US.  That is why NY has such huge numbers, and likely a big part of how hard Spain and Italy were hit.

Most any country with significant slums will be hit hard, as will any country with lots of concentrated urban poverty.  The below list lists countries with slums.  1 Billion people live in slums currently.  Also you can have concentrated urban poverty without slums.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_slums

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2020, 10:38:30 AM »
Going to disagree somewhat with NYC. While they may have "slumlords" what passes for a slum in NYC isn't likely to be considered one in much of the rest of the world.

NYC does have a very dense population though.

They also have a tightly integrated transportation system with many opportunities for people of widely varied economic strata to interact with each other simply in the act of moving to or from work. Be it in an elevator, or on mass transit.

Office Elevators and mass transit are likely to be the two largest contributors to the virus spread in NYC.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2020, 10:59:28 AM »
Going to disagree somewhat with NYC. While they may have "slumlords" what passes for a slum in NYC isn't likely to be considered one in much of the rest of the world.

I wasn't claiming that NYC had slums.  I'm talking about the poor and apartment overcrowding,

Quote
Over a million and a half residents are affected by this problem. Immigrant households are the most frequently affected- 70% of units categorized as overcrowded include a head of household who emigrated to this country. Units with more than one person per room are referred to as “crowded dwellings,” and units with more than 1.5 persons per room are referred to as “severely crowded dwellings.”

https://www.kaplanlawyers.com/blog/apartment-overcrowding-in-nyc/

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The Bronx was home to the largest share of crowded units in 2013 (12.4 percent of all housing units in the borough). Brooklyn was close behind at 10.3 percent

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2015/10/new-york-city-apartments-are-getting-even-more-crowded/409150/


TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2020, 11:03:44 AM »
There's a reason why colleges shut down quickly. It's the same reason that high density apartment dwelling is dangerous. Lots of people rolling through common areas (like mail room, elevator). People living with more than one person to a room. Many people sharing one bathroom.

Charlie's family in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory would be in big trouble.

DJQuag

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2020, 02:23:30 PM »
Brazil will be fine. Capitalism and sovereignty are literally what the world runs on and Brazil has plenty of both.

And by that I mean a whole lot of people are about to be die, but it'll be *fine,* and the country will march on and have some interesting things written into history books a decade or two from now. Which children will read/be taught from, and they'll grow up knowing that's the world.

So obviously from a perspective of a 2050 Brazilian you should be ashamed for trying to undermine the minds of the youth.

“To be fair, the Reptilians can be sneaky.

I really wouldn't put it past their ways. God. Do you think the Demoplaugerats are are in this? Could they be? PS I never got into BTFS”

(awesome)

I am absolutely awesome, all the voices in my head agree. Can we at least agree we're both against the Reptilians, Crunch? So many people look down on their danger, others raise objections due to "scientific evidence," and the Reptilian friends speaking news that is fake. These people are dangerous.

DJQuag

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2020, 02:29:00 PM »
PS I expect a credit at least when you run to Breitbart and/Facebook and start posting about Demoplauguerats. It's the God Granted American Way.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2020, 03:23:17 PM »
Quote
Spain, one of the countries worst hit by the coronavirus, is beginning to ease strict lockdown measures that have brought its economy to a standstill.

People in manufacturing, construction and some services are being allowed to return to work, but must stick to strict safety guidelines.

The rest of the population must still remain at home.

Almost 17,500 people with Covid-19 have died in Spain, but the rate of new infections has been falling.

Italy - the hardest-hit country in Europe, with more than 20,000 deaths - will allow a narrow range of firms to resume operations on Tuesday.

This is a prudent way to gradually move toward economic recovery, provided that they are prepared to pump the brakes if numbers start back up again.

rightleft22

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2020, 03:29:02 PM »
Interesting story coming out of Canada

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/spartan-covid19-test-kit-new-1.5530669

The portable device is said to report results in 5 min. I hope it works

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #46 on: April 16, 2020, 03:19:34 PM »
Meanwhile in Japan...

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A nationwide state of emergency has been declared in Japan due to the country’s worsening coronavirus outbreak.

The move allows regional governments to urge people to stay inside, but without punitive measures or legal force.

After a recent spike in cases in the capital Tokyo, experts warned that the city’s emergency medical facilities could collapse under the pressure. Officials in Tokyo have also urged people to work from home.

Japan’s two emergency medical associations also issued a joint statement warning that they were “already sensing the collapse of the emergency medical system”.

And the mayor of Osaka appealed for people to donate their raincoats, so they could be used as personal protective equipment (PPE) for health workers whom he said were being forced to fashion PPE out of rubbish bags.

Unlike South Korea - which has brought its outbreak largely under control through a programme of large-scale testing - the Japanese government said that carrying out widespread testing was a “waste of resources”.

BBC

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Nine prefectures reported that more than 80 percent of their beds are occupied.

NHK

What's really scary is their testing and tracking is really low. Serious cases and deaths are starting to spike. Virus deniers will point out that the overall numbers are low - way better than the flu. Those people don't understand an exponential curve.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #47 on: April 16, 2020, 04:05:34 PM »
dutch blood donor study

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About 3 percent of blood donors in the Netherlands have developed antibodies against Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, RIVM director Jaap van Dissel told the Tweede Kamer based on an as-yet-unpublished study by blood bank Sanquin, NU.nl reports.

If blood donors are representative of the Dutch population, then around 3 percent of Netherlands residents have had the coronavirus to a more or lesser extent. "This concerns several hundred thousand Dutch people," Van Dissel said during his weekly update on the state of affairs surrounding the coronavirus to parliament.

Sanquin tested blood and plasma samples of Dutch donors to see if they've had the virus. Preliminary results show that the presence of antibodies differs per age group. 3.6 percent of young blood donors between 18 and 20 years old (688 individuals) have Covid-19 antibodies. That percentage decreases as donors get older. No antibodies were found among donors between the ages of 71 and 80, though the number of donors in that age group is also much lower - only 10 individuals.

nltimes

So it makes sense. Testing is prioritized to people with symptoms, and older people are more likely to develop serious symptoms.

3% is helpful if those people have immunity, and it might suggest the fatality rate is much lower.

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Van Dissel stressed that the investigation is still ongoing. But this suggests that individuals who have recovered from the coronavirus have "some degree of immunity". The RIVM previously said that people with milder symptoms seem to build up less immunity than people who became very ill from Covid-19.

This is far from a random sample of the population, of course. Blood donors tend to be healthy, for one thing.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #48 on: April 16, 2020, 04:45:23 PM »
TheDrake,

I'd be interested what extent the COVID-19 antibody test they use cross reacts with antibodies for other coronaviruses.  My understanding is that most antibody tests significantly cross react with the other coronavirus antibodies and thus will have lots of false positives.

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“A lot of these tests cross react with other coronaviruses. So, just as a reminder, there are four common coronavirus that are the cause of the common cold and so, if you have an antibody test that cross reacts and it says that you’ve had COVID-19, but really you had one of the common colds, then that gives you a false sense of security,” said Dr. Lee.

https://www.waff.com/2020/04/15/uab-doctor-weighs-accuracy-covid-antibody-test/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 04:48:34 PM by LetterRip »

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #49 on: April 16, 2020, 04:50:07 PM »
Yeah, until the actual study is out it is hard to know. And even if it is highly specific....

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Here's what would happen if you used a test with 90% specificity in a population in which only 1% of the people have coronavirus. Nobody knows for sure, but that could be the situation in many parts of the country.

In that instance, more than 90% of the positive results would be false positives, and falsely reassuring. (You can run your own examples on the calculator on this page).