Author Topic: Literary causation?  (Read 407 times)

wmLambert

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Literary causation?
« on: June 20, 2020, 12:13:06 AM »
This forum started when Orson Scott Card put it together to discuss his works and to mentor hopeful authors.

The current remake is now a political forum, and Card seems to have distanced himself from it.

Harkening back to the original author-focused times, I've noticed several recent novels that have raised fictional international adventures which seem to predate the real world in many disturbing ways. I had the latest Vince Flynn novel on order from the local library co-op, and it was postponed because of the Wuhan Flu shut down. Our mistake of a governor allowed libraries to reopen this week, so I received the book vis curbside pickup.

Funny thing is the publishing date is 2019, but it nails the Coronavirus pandemic to a "T". In the novel, Mitch Rapp prevents a terrorist from sending martyrs infected with a SARS-like Acute Respiratory Syndrome that came from bats, in order to break down the US economy and lifestyle. The contagion was extremely high, and the mortality rate was high, The virus was spread easily by touch from hard surfaces for up to 72 hours, and from body fluids. Sunlight may help to kill it. Sure sounds familiar, doesn't it? Doctors without Borders had stopped the zero-point and locked down the village where the population was infected, but a terroristt realized what a great weapon it would be - so came to the village and burned it all to the ground, but kept enough patients to infect his martyrs, who were illegally entering the country through the Mexican border.

This is the second time books that recently came out foretold real time events, just before it actually happened. Vince Flynn and Brad Thor write in the same genré of espionage adventure, with Mitch Rapp and Scot Horvath playing the President's personal spy/assassin. I think after Vince Flynn died and Kyle Mills took over his series, that the two have written a very similar plot line. Both have Russia starting WWIII by attacking Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Rapp. in "Red War" fights against a "Putin" alias to help a failing NATO and an America with no skin in the game.Thor's "Spy Master" and Horvath has uncovered the Russian plot to start WWIII by invading Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, while compromising NATO.

Both novels seem to stage this plot line around the mess Obama left the world in.

However; almost all the problems that allowed Russia to play this role were fixed by Trump. Was this an echo from what was going on behind the scene?

I know some people with contacts in the world of intel agents who seem to know what is going on before anyone else, These books seem to contain some leading indicators.

How much is imagination, and how much is purposefully revealing the future?


TheDeamon

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2020, 12:20:16 AM »
This forum started when Orson Scott Card put it together to discuss his works and to mentor hopeful authors.

I believe that was the function of the forums that I understood to exist over on HatrackRiver, this site was intended to be about politics from the start.

Aris Katsaris

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2020, 12:33:17 AM »
Funny thing is the publishing date is 2019, but it nails the Coronavirus pandemic to a "T". In the novel, Mitch Rapp prevents a terrorist from sending martyrs infected with a SARS-like Acute Respiratory Syndrome that came from bats, in order to break down the US economy and lifestyle. The contagion was extremely high, and the mortality rate was high, The virus was spread easily by touch from hard surfaces for up to 72 hours, and from body fluids. Sunlight may help to kill it. Sure sounds familiar, doesn't it? Doctors without Borders had stopped the zero-point and locked down the village where the population was infected, but a terroristt realized what a great weapon it would be - so came to the village and burned it all to the ground, but kept enough patients to infect his martyrs, who were illegally entering the country through the Mexican border.

Nothing you described is especially close to the Coronavirus pandemic at all.

With coronavirus, the contagion is high, but the mortality rate is low.

Stuff like "spread from body fluids. sunlight helps disinfect" are both very generic in regards to how contagions work. Bats are a standard vector for new diseases (SARS and MERS are both believed to be connected to bats). Nothing happened in real life relating to terrorists or martyrs deliberately infecting people. The Mexican border wasn't relevant either, since the disease came to America from places like Italy and elsewhere, not Mexico. No village burnings as far as I know either.

In short, a very weak connection basically reduced to "it's an epidemic". You could probably find a dozen other stories with as many or more points of similarity.

wmLambert

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2020, 01:03:12 PM »
...Nothing you described is especially close to the Coronavirus pandemic at all.
\

No, nothing at all. How about the hurt the economy part? Why were all the rules changed right before the virus started, so that every death due to other causes could be attributed to Coronavirus? Parachute accident=killed by Coronavirus. Traffic accident=killed by Coronavirus. Why were all the violent felons released from prison, right before a police shooting sparked protests which were a cover for Democrat-mentored riots and looting? Everything to hurt the economy - but yeah, no linkage.

As for the Pandemic, itself, the spread is exactly what the terrorist in the novel wanted, but there was no hero to stop the infected martyrs from spreading it to population centers. Why were the main pockets abetted by Democrat mayors and governors? If a real whistle blower ever comes forward to prove anything, heads will roll.

Fenring

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2020, 01:24:01 PM »
I have read many accounts of books or other media "predicting" terrible events. One of my favorites is the Back to the Future II theory where upside-down Marty McFly floats into the living room and sees (upside down) a video of the twin towers ascending on to the screen. That one is funny as hell, but I've read many theories that people knew it was coming in advance, including ones based on numerology (i.e. that the date has some esoteric significance). These are fun, perhaps even the odd one is true,  but more important is that people who do plan for terrible events (in contrast to ones that may be naturally occurring) also watch TV and movies, so it's within possibility not that these media predicted anything, but that someone got their idea from it. Just as an example, I could see an argument where a novel like 1984 simultaneously serves as a warning and also as a user manual. Perhaps even Machiavelli could be similar, although I'm not schooled in the study of it to offer an opinion.

TheDeamon

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2020, 03:07:03 PM »
As for the Pandemic, itself, the spread is exactly what the terrorist in the novel wanted, but there was no hero to stop the infected martyrs from spreading it to population centers. Why were the main pockets abetted by Democrat mayors and governors? If a real whistle blower ever comes forward to prove anything, heads will roll.

To be fair on "the Democrat Mayors and governors" front, the ones in Washinton, Oregon, and California were reasonably proactive in their response to the situation. They were way ahead of everyone else. Other democrats in/from their states may be another matter, like a certain Speaker of the House.

Beyond that, Vince Flynn isn't the first person to touch on the idea of "infected martyrs" being flown into the United States with a contagious and dangerous disease. The idea is about 20 years old now, it was getting all kinds of attention after the post-911 anthrax scares, and IIRC there were some authors who have works that can predate even that.

Economic impacts from both the contagion itself, and attempts to limit the spread of a theoretical event were also something of a "no-brainer" for any author who touched on the subject in the past. If containment doesn't stop it early, the cost gets very high, very fast, both in terms of lives lost, and economic impact.

Aris Katsaris

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2020, 03:00:51 AM »
No, nothing at all. How about the hurt the economy part?

COVID-19 has hurt the economy of nations all over the world. The obsession of certain Americans that it's a conspiracy to hurt the American economy specifically is not just nonsense, but utterly parochial nonsense.

If this novel, which I haven't read, describes a plot against the American economy, then I have to say that's a point of difference between reality and the novel.

Why were all the rules changed right before the virus started, so that every death due to other causes could be attributed to Coronavirus? Parachute accident=killed by Coronavirus. Traffic accident=killed by Coronavirus.

I previously asked for evidence that there have been accidental deaths attributed to Coronavirus, and I don't think I got any, unless I missed a post.

So again, if you have any such evidence that deaths caused by parachute accidents or traffic accidents have been attributed to Coronavirus, can you please provide such? Thanks in advance.

Quote
Why were all the violent felons released from prison, right before a police shooting sparked protests which were a cover for Democrat-mentored riots and looting?

In Turkey, they released 90,000 inmates (https://theconversation.com/turkey-releasing-murderers-but-not-political-opponents-from-prison-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-136466), and I don't think that Erdogan did it in order to spark riots against his own government. I'm thinking he did it to reduce deaths caused by overcrowding.

So, tell me why Turkey released felons from prison, and I'd guess that the reason in the USA was the same.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2020, 03:21:56 AM »
The movie Contagion seemed like it might have a lot of parallels too. That's already been discussed a lot in the media. I don't want to give out any spoilers but it was pretty good. Of course there were a lot of differences too. The Last Ship, both the book and the TV series, had more differences than similarities but still some interesting overlap in some ways.

If this is in general about books that seem to predict the future a couple more may be Tom Clancy's 1994 novel Debt of Honor and  Hector Charles Bywater's 1925 novel The Great Pacific War. We heard a lot after 9-11 that nobody could ever imagine that people would use civilian jetliners to smash into buildings. Hardly. Also interesting is the possibility that Admiral Yamamoto himself may have read The Great Pacific War and modeled his attack based on some of the ideas in it, so in that case not a book predicting the future but as the thread title allows, perhaps serving as a causality itself.

rightleft22

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2020, 10:26:59 AM »
The WHO and various nations have done various 'pandemic wargaming' to improve response and such. These exercise often included authors who's role is is to ask and and expand on the 'what if'. I expect that any half descent author using a pandemic as a narrative would come across these exercise during their research.
That said It doesn't take a genius to predict a economic chaos caused by a pandemic that take out a large percentage of the population.

D.W.

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2020, 08:55:51 AM »
I gotta say that, "remember when this place wasn't ALL about politics?", then seguing a book review RIGHT into politics made me chuckle.  Good one wmLambert.

wmLambert

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2020, 01:16:40 PM »
I gotta say that, "remember when this place wasn't ALL about politics?", then seguing a book review RIGHT into politics made me chuckle.  Good one wmLambert.

First, it was about politics. Secondly, it was observing literature as a tie-in. Always happy to lend a helping hand.

wmLambert

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Re: Literary causation?
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2020, 01:27:59 PM »
...COVID-19 has hurt the economy of nations all over the world. The obsession of certain Americans that it's a conspiracy to hurt the American economy specifically is not just nonsense, but utterly parochial nonsense.

The novel explained that the terrorist wanted a world-wide pandemic that would hurt the densely-packed affluent Western nations, and that the less densely populated Mideast terrorist states would survive much more readily and would then be able to extend a Caliphate over what was left of the whole world. The Terrorist also wanted patient zero to be in the United States in order to point guilt. Most pandemic novels I've read tend more toward the Ebola-type diseases with bleeding eyes and more debilitating results. or else radiation poisoning from dirty bombs.