covid-19 outside the US

[DonaldD]

I think any zombie story line, if allowed to reach its 'proper' conclusion, would have the zombies 'dying' from thirst/starvation/entropy.  That would be the boring and least metaphorical part of the story, though...

[TheDrake]

Any zombie story line requires the supernatural, except in pseudo zombies like 28 days. There is no energy conversion that can occur when some zombies don't even have digestive tracts any more. It implies some kind of psychic rather than physiological energy, which is maybe why they eat brains. Anyway, none of those things happen from breathing through cloth.

[DonaldD]

Interesting ... a 1500-person, controlled experiment of coronavirus spread in a large indoor venue: Leipzig, Germany.

Researchers in the German city of Leipzig staged a 1,500-person experimental indoor concert on Saturday to better understand how Covid-19 spreads at big, busy events, and how to prevent it.

At the gig, which featured a live performance from musician Tim Bendzko, fans were given respiratory face masks, fluorescent hand gel and electronic "contact trackers" -- small transmitters that determine the contact rates and contact distances of the individual experiment participants.

[TheDrake]

Days before schools are set to open in Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday that it would be “clearly nonsensical” for students to wear face masks in class. “You can’t teach with face coverings, you can’t expect people to learn with face coverings. The most important thing is just to wash your hands,” Mr. Johnson said. In areas where local lockdowns are in place, students and staff members will be required to wear masks in communal areas with the exception of classrooms, where the government said “protective measures already mean the risks are lower.”

[TheDrake]

Two weeks after my last Spain update, we have this.

Over the last month, shops, beaches, bars and restaurants have all reopened, and the country began to welcome tourists again too. But recently the number of new cases has soared, and authorities have warned that a new nationwide lockdown could be implemented if this trend continues.

The majority of Spain’s regional authorities have reimposed requirements to wear face coverings at all times outdoors. In Catalonia, the regional government also urged its nearly three million residents to stay indoors as the area reported a surge of new cases.

Yeah, once again proving that letting things fly, even when you have flattened the curve to only a few hundred cases, works exactly like you would expect. Meanwhile, there is reason to believe the numbers are being cooked to make it look better.

Since late April, the tally of confirmed cases includes data obtained from PCR diagnostic tests only, which caused a drop in the number of known infections, from around 220,000 to just over 200,000. In late May, Spain announced yet another way of collecting data, by counting a death based on when it occurred instead of when authorities were notified. As a result, the country’s death toll saw a drop of around 2,000 deaths.

Confused? Many people and news outlets have been too. Although authorities have argued that the new data collection system provides a better picture of the pandemic, Spanish news media have reported “incomprehensible figures” and the “thousands of casualties that suddenly disappeared from the series.”

Spain, like most countries, is only counting fatalities of those who have tested positive for coronavirus. The Madrid region and Catalonia, the country’s worst hit areas, have reported “confirmed or suspected” coronavirus deaths provided by funeral homes in daily updates, but those updated numbers are not included in the daily death tolls published by Spain’s health ministry. The regional numbers there include deaths in nursing homes and suggest that the death toll is far higher than reported so far.

Source: NYT

[fizz]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/04/silvio-berlusconi-admitted-milan-hospital-coronavirus-italy

The amusing thing about Briatore and Berlusconi getting infected is that they have been very vocal about COVID19 countermeasures being a useless nuisance. In particular, the Zangrillo doctor named in the article is Berlusconi's personal doctor, and the "scientific" support of the parties claiming all this virus stuff is not a big deal.
Just few hours ago he was releasing a statement about how maybe he used the wrong tone when he said that the virus was dead and the pandemic over, and so was misunderstood...

[TheDrake]

Israel's cabinet is to consider whether to impose a nationwide lockdown, as the country struggles to halt a steep rise in coronavirus infections.
The health ministry reported 3,904 new cases on Wednesday, a new daily record that brought the total to 142,582. The death toll also rose by 11 to 1,054.

[TheDrake]

Paris will shut all bars completely from Tuesday after the French government raised the city's coronavirus alert to maximum following a period of high infection rates.

Bars, gyms and swimming pools will all be closed for two weeks in a bid to curb the spread of the virus, the city's police chief said.

But restaurants will remain open if strict hygiene rules are in place.

On Sunday France reported 12,565 cases of Covid-19.

"These are braking measures because the epidemic is moving too fast," police chief Didier Lallement said during a press conference on Monday.

"We have to slow it down so that our health system is not overwhelmed," he added.

France's maximum alert level comes into force when the infection rate in a locality exceeds 250 infections per 100,000 people and at least 30% of intensive care beds are reserved for Covid-19 patients.

More recently:

Covid-19 patients are taking up more than 40% of intensive care beds in the Paris region, regional health officials say

[TheDeamon]

So riots in much of Europe due to Covid19 lockdowns, Paris just had a massive exodus in advance of an announced lockdown. The Czech Republic has United States National Guard units deploying to provide medical assistance.

So much for that European social safety net.

And Biden wants to do what Europe was doing?

[msquared]

US National Guard units deploying in the Czech Republic?  Are you sure?

[TheDeamon]

US National Guard units deploying in the Czech Republic?  Are you sure?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-national-guard-assists-czech-republic-sounds-covid-19-n1245444

https://cz.usembassy.gov/united-states-military-support-for-czech-republic-in-fight-against-covid-19/

[DJQuag]

The same things that make winter flu season were always going to bring a sharp increase in covid cases. People were saying this back in March.

In a place like the US where it's a partisan issue and the right wing takes pride in their stance on methods to reduce virus spread, the fun is already starting. In countries where the people are slightly more sane, it's a slow uptick and, yes, they're attempting to reduce the impact.

The UK as usual is a mishmash of Europe and the US and even our Conservative government has just announced a month long nationwide lock down.

All of that aside, how do a bunch of chodes complaining about their civil right to give coronavirus to their grandmother give you an in to complain about the European social safety net? Don't worry, it's still here and for the most part still working, the attempted Americanization of it by right wingers notwithstanding. If you're in a bad place and need assistance in any way Europe is still 100x better a place to be then the US.

[DJQuag]

As a follow on the details make the decision of Boris Johnson look asinine.

He's shutting down all nonessential businesses and ordering people to stay within their homes. Okay. If you believe the virus is that much a danger, that's understandable.

Schools and universities are still open.

What the literal *censored*.

Primary schools, since they've existed, have in medical terms been the best place ever for everything from lice to polio to spread throughout a community.

It's either dangerous enough to shut down the economy in which case you do it *right,* or it's not. We're getting the worst of both worlds here.

I swear. Friggin Tories.

[rightleft22]

The same things that make winter flu season were always going to bring a sharp increase in covid cases

Interesting data coming from the Southern Hemisphere which flu season is coming to a end
The numbers of those infected with the flu are way down. in some places 75% lower the previous years.

The hypothesis is that mask wearing and social distancing for COVID-19 may have kept the number of influenza cases way down south of the equator

[DJQuag]

The same things that make winter flu season were always going to bring a sharp increase in covid cases

Interesting data coming from the Southern Hemisphere which flu season is coming to a end
The numbers of those infected with the flu are way down. in some places 75% lower the previous years.

The hypothesis is that mask wearing and social distancing for COVID-19 may have kept the number of influenza cases way down south of the equator

I'm not surprised. As others have said, even a basic understanding of virus prevention methods among the population is going to reduce virus transmission, no matter what virus. In countries without partisan groups not using masks or adhering to social distancing in order to own the libs, I'm completely unsurprised that flu transmission saw a sharp decrease. I'm pretty sure people around the world have seen a sharp decrease in the common cold to go along with it.

[oldbrian]

How did the great Sweden experiment work out?  I remember they went full open back at the beginning of summer, right?  And they eventually leveled off?

Are they seeing the same upswing as the rest of Europe?

[Grant]

How did the great Sweden experiment work out?  I remember they went full open back at the beginning of summer, right?  And they eventually leveled off?

Are they seeing the same upswing as the rest of Europe?

Yup

[DJQuag]

How did the great Sweden experiment work out?  I remember they went full open back at the beginning of summer, right?  And they eventually leveled off?

Are they seeing the same upswing as the rest of Europe?

That experiment was worthy and something I was looking forward to seeing the results of.

Unfortunately Covid is the gift that keeps on giving and from the looks of it it's similar to the common cold in that you can get it, get the antibodies, you'll be immune for a while and then six to twelve months later you're ripe to catch it again. Herd immunity isn't going to be a valid defense mechanism.

[DJQuag]

And as much as I don't want to Lambert the conversation up, consider this.

Fifteen to twenty thousand years ago a new virus emerges. It spreads easily and some people die easily and others get a few sniffles.

Those with the wrong genetic defense, they die. The rest of them live to have descendents joke about someone complaining about the common cold.

Is that the point we're approaching now?

[DJQuag]

We're not immune. I say that as humans. There are a very large amount of viruses just waiting to take a bite. Live handling practices obviously don't help whether it's Spanish Flu from American pigs or CV-19 from Chinese live bat-for-dinner markets.

Honestly? We as a species are primed to have the "right" virus take a chunk out of the population and let the best of us try to care for them and in the process catch the disease.

It's appeared now. It's going to kill *so many* of us. How are we going to respond?

[TheDeamon]

Unfortunately Covid is the gift that keeps on giving and from the looks of it it's similar to the common cold in that you can get it, get the antibodies, you'll be immune for a while and then six to twelve months later you're ripe to catch it again. Herd immunity isn't going to be a valid defense mechanism.

Vaccinate, twice a year. Assuming they can get one that doesn't make things worse. Although good luck getting many people to take the vaccine a second time until/unless a major outbreak hits their area. Which isn't to mention to others who would likely refuse the first round of vaccinations because they distrust its safety.

[TheDeamon]

It's appeared now. It's going to kill *so many* of us. How are we going to respond?

Beyond a potential vaccine that you get "boosters" for at least once every 6 months... The only other avenue is to determine which genetic markers indicate likely positive outcomes vs likely negative outcomes from a full-on Covid-19 infection and start trying to work out how to best protect those that are genetically vulnerable from exposure. They basically get to be treated like everyone else with "compromised immune systems" when Covid19 is known to be in the area.

[DJQuag]

It's appeared now. It's going to kill *so many* of us. How are we going to respond?

Beyond a potential vaccine that you get "boosters" for at least once every 6 months... The only other avenue is to determine which genetic markers indicate likely positive outcomes vs likely negative outcomes from a full-on Covid-19 infection and start trying to work out how to best protect those that are genetically vulnerable from exposure. They basically get to be treated like everyone else with "compromised immune systems" when Covid19 is known to be in the area.

This is what we should do. You know, like, morally.

I think we all know what's actually going to happen.

From the very beginning there have been voices urging the population to just let the virus spread and do it's thing. This virus gives some people sniffles and cuts like a knife through butter into entire families, all depending on the genetic makeup.

What we're talking about here is eugenics. Morally we should defend the vulnerable more, but I think we all know round about the fourth or fifth shutdown you're going to have a healthy majority willing to just let the people who will die, die.

[DJQuag]

Sorry. Want to make it clear I understand that like the only symptom Covid *isn't* known for is sniffles, I was using the term as a euphemism.

A mild fever or light cough would be the better description.

[TheDeamon]

What we're talking about here is eugenics. Morally we should defend the vulnerable more, but I think we all know round about the fourth or fifth shutdown you're going to have a healthy majority willing to just let the people who will die, die.

You should be aware that genetic testing to determine vulnerability to Covid19 also delves into the domain of eugenics too. It effectively creates two classes of people by means of their DNA if we're dealing in a situation where a vaccine proves not to be viable.

[Grant]

TheDrake,

I'd be interested what extent the COVID-19 antibody test they use cross reacts with antibodies for other coronaviruses.  My understanding is that most antibody tests significantly cross react with the other coronavirus antibodies and thus will have lots of false positives.

This is why PCR testing is the gold standard.  All antibody test positives should be confirmed by PCR testing. 

This is why antibody or antigen testing is not well suited to screening large populaces.  Think back to the testing done in California that purported to show 10 times the amount of people that were previously suspected to be infected.  Testing in a vacuum is stupid if you're using these results for anything other than to screen.  Using them to try and figure out what is going on with the virus won't work. 

[DJQuag]

What we're talking about here is eugenics. Morally we should defend the vulnerable more, but I think we all know round about the fourth or fifth shutdown you're going to have a healthy majority willing to just let the people who will die, die.

You should be aware that genetic testing to determine vulnerability to Covid19 also delves into the domain of eugenics too. It effectively creates two classes of people by means of their DNA if we're dealing in a situation where a vaccine proves not to be viable.

I think the idea of a genetic test for covid susceptibility is so far out as to be a pipe dream.

The only reason we can even speculate that vulnerability is partially genetic are seeing how it hits some families particularly hard.

What it will end up being is some very minor thing that allows the virus access to cells a bit more efficiently, and while I'm certainly not a virologist or pathology expert I'm assuming here that our mastery of genetics doesn't allow us to pinpoint that one small stretch of DNA quite so easily.

Although I might be wrong. I can't remember if they ever nailed down why 5-10 percent of Northern Europeans are effectively immune to the HIV virus.

[TheDeamon]

I think the idea of a genetic test for covid susceptibility is so far out as to be a pipe dream.

The only reason we can even speculate that vulnerability is partially genetic are seeing how it hits some families particularly hard.

What it will end up being is some very minor thing that allows the virus access to cells a bit more efficiently, and while I'm certainly not a virologist or pathology expert I'm assuming here that our mastery of genetics doesn't allow us to pinpoint that one small stretch of DNA quite so easily.

IIRC, the ACE2 receptor pathway has been getting a lot of research attention because of how it interacts with the Covid19 spike. There are humans with a mutation on that marker that make them much more vulnerable to said spike, while others have a mutation that make them highly resistant to it. It was identified back in February, the challenge is finding people who have been tested for that marker and have been verifiably infected with Covid19, and obtaining a sufficient sized sample for "a proper scientific study" and all of the associated ethics issues that ensue.

[fizz]

Well, my younger brother just got diagnosed with covid.
Luckily for now it seems a light form, although not asymptomatic... we hope him being young-ish and athletic will help him.
But the fact he's also a smoker does not help.

[TheDeamon]

Well, my younger brother just got diagnosed with covid.
Luckily for now it seems a light form, although not asymptomatic... we hope him being young-ish and athletic will help him.
But the fact he's also a smoker does not help.

I have an associate who is a smoker that was concerned about that too, but he's also in his 30's. He got Covid19, only had mild symptoms and was perfectly fine otherwise. For me that just further supports the idea that there is a strong genetic component in all of this, that certain families seem to experience multiple family members dying when they get infected would tend to support that.

For an illness that has a less than 2% mortality rate, seeing the story of a family group becoming infected and 4+ people out of a group smaller than 10 people die from it over and over again argues strongly for genetic factors. If it was just a few isolated cases of that "here and there" then environmental could be considered valid, at least until their neighbors get infected and don't die.

[DonaldD]

Good luck, Fizz

[LetterRip]

Genetics likely plays a role, but dose plays a huge role and site of initial infection (upper vs lower respiratory vs gi tract), and specific strain likely plays a role also.

[TheDrake]

25% of all deaths in France right now are due to the pandemic.