Author Topic: October Surprise  (Read 843 times)

msquared

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October Surprise
« on: September 02, 2020, 07:32:41 PM »
Will Trump force through a vaccine that is rushed through the approval process just to help his re-election chances? What happens if he is re-elected and then the vaccine does not work as advertised or, worse, has bad side effects that were not found because of the rush?

Now don't get me wrong. I hope they do come up with a vaccine quickly. And if it works well, he gets credit for getting it pushed through. But will he be lucky that it works or at least does not cause any harm.

Of course there is no way they will be able to make enough doses to get any type of penetration in the population for any effect to been seen by election day.

TheDrake

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2020, 08:36:03 PM »
#1 it depends on how accelerated we're talking. Preliminary data available from Stage 3 testing? Partial data from Stage 3, but not yet fully complete? Skip Stage 3, like Russia and China are doing?

#2 I think it is impossible to determine any motive of "just to help his re-election chances". It could just as easily be to save lives in a calculated risk. Putin rushed out a stage 1  :o, and he doesn't have to worry about any opposition because he has barrels full of poison.

#3 Safety should be pretty straightforward. Other drugs need a long time to evaluate because people have to take the drug on their daily schedule for quite some time.

#4 Efficacy is the tricky one. Do the antigens last, etc?

If we get #4 wrong, what happens is a false sense of security that can lead to a spike. And a lot of money down the drain. I think the real concern is the former, that people think they are protected but really are not. The only other possibility is having funds dry up for another vaccine in the pipeline that actually works. Moderna is saying their trial design doesn't allow for results before Q1 2021, but I assume that is because of having to evaluate the longevity of antibodies. Even having a short-lived vaccine at this point would be a big, if temporary, benefit. As long as people don't let their guard down and start filling up arenas.

yossarian22c

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 09:03:16 AM »
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/02/909014567/cdc-asks-states-to-plan-for-potential-vaccine-distribution-starting-in-late-octo

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CDC Director Robert Redfield also sent a letter asking governors to fast-track permits and licenses so that vaccine distribution sites can be up and running by Nov. 1, McClatchy reports.
...
Three different vaccines are currently in Phase 3 trials in the U.S., during which the vaccine is given to thousands of people to test its safety and efficacy.

Public health officials have offered different predictions as far as when the first vaccine may be ready for distribution, with most hoping for early next year.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in July that he is "cautiously optimistic" a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year and distributed beginning in 2021.
...
Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn said over the weekend that he would be willing to speed up the process with an emergency use authorization before Phase 3 trials are over, and stressed that decision would be based on data rather than politics.

Phase 3 trials take time. EUA issued 2 days before the election?!? How does that not scream political pressure vs. the best science available.

TheDeamon

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 10:57:26 PM »
Phase 3 trials take time. EUA issued 2 days before the election?!? How does that not scream political pressure vs. the best science available.

On the flip side, China and Russia aren't trying to win an election, and they're already pushing vaccine out for mass distribution.

Not that they're great examples to follow for other reasons, but it still stands.

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2020, 07:31:52 AM »
There is the issue with neither Russia nor China particularly caring about individual people, so yeah, not a great example.  The up-side is that by testing on their general populations, they'll be able to get their own vaccines to international markets more quickly, ka-ching$$

TheDeamon

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2020, 01:29:47 PM »
There is the issue with neither Russia nor China particularly caring about individual people, so yeah, not a great example.  The up-side is that by testing on their general populations, they'll be able to get their own vaccines to international markets more quickly, ka-ching$$

Don't forget the bragging rights, 20, 30 years from now they can brag about being "first to market with a covid19 vaccine" so they were the ones who cured Covid, naturally.

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2020, 02:15:53 PM »
The speed-up of the vaccine regulations are no different than the allowance of terminally ill patients to ask for and use possible cures that may or may not work 100%. It is their decision, and the upside far surpasses any litigation for side-effects that big Pharma fear.

Moreover, this falls in line with Trump's stated goals: to help people. There is no nefarious back-door deals with Pharmaceuticals - just the hope that it can help. Trump is derided as a straw man who hates people and loves himself, which is their only tactic. They can't argue the metrics, because he wins every time.

He has proven his devotion to the nation and to the common man. His support and reverence for the military is unassailable. Saying he called those who died in the support of the nation, "losers" and "suckers" is like saying Mother Theresa talking Smack about poor people.

The Left tries to invent a huge total of "proven" lies that Trump has made, yet one on one, against his accusers he has come out as truthful and they were the liars. After all, Schiff's proofs of Trump's collusion with Putin probably accounts for most of that bogus total.

Wayward Son

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2020, 07:04:53 PM »
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He has proven his devotion to the nation and to the common man. His support and reverence for the military is unassailable. Saying he called those who died in the support of the nation, "losers" and "suckers" is like saying Mother Theresa talking Smack about poor people.

LMAO. That is hilarious!  ;D

You seriously believe a man who said, “He’s not a war hero. He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured,” could not possibly "talk smack" about soldiers?  Who said that sleeping around with women was his "personal Vietnam" because he might have caught VD?  Who got out of Vietnam by getting a doctor to say he had bone spurs?  The support and "reverence" for the military of a person who said those things is "unassailable?"  ;D

Thanks, Lambert.  I haven't laughed that hard in quite a while. :)

LetterRip

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2020, 08:46:40 PM »
#1 it depends on how accelerated we're talking. Preliminary data available from Stage 3 testing? Partial data from Stage 3, but not yet fully complete? Skip Stage 3, like Russia and China are doing?

#2 I think it is impossible to determine any motive of "just to help his re-election chances". It could just as easily be to save lives in a calculated risk. Putin rushed out a stage 1  :o, and he doesn't have to worry about any opposition because he has barrels full of poison.

If Putin screws up too much he risks a coup or assassination.  So while he doesn't have election risk, there are other risks that a Dictator risks if the populace becomes too unhappy.  Unfortunately we don't know how much his popularity dropped since May.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-russia-putins-popularity-rating-falls-to-historic-low.html

China is doing so for economic reasons.  They risk a loss of power due to COVID-19 if there economy slows too much.

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#3 Safety should be pretty straightforward. Other drugs need a long time to evaluate because people have to take the drug on their daily schedule for quite some time.

There are a few safety risks due to vaccines - The most important is that some trial vaccines have had the opposite of the intended effect - they can make the person more likely to die if they contract the virus.  This has happened with other vaccine trials for SARS viruses (I can't recall if it was SARS-CoV-1 or MERS).  I think that was discovered in the phase 3 trials.

As to Trump getting 'credit' - I think the vaccine manufacturers would be going as fast as they can regardless.

LetterRip

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2020, 09:25:11 PM »
Also it is unclear what amount of time is needed to see an adequate effect size to tell if the vaccine works.

30,000 people per trial.

The US is averaging about 30,000 new cases a day.  A population of 350 million that is 0.008571428%
So for that 30000 people we can expect 2.57 cases per day.
July 27th is when many started phase 3.
So August, September, October - 90 days.
So if it is 100% effective 2.57 * 90 = 231 possible cases forgone.
If it is minimally effective (50%) that would be 115 possible cases forgone.

However, I think that simple a math isn't useful.  We probably need fairly sophisticated risk stratification.  Most infections are probably those who get regular virus exposure either due to work or behaviour.  So if we get say 115 cases, but the people who are taking the vaccine are the risk avoidance people - then that would imply the vaccine isn't effective.  For risk avoiders the risk is probably 1/10th of the 'average' person who catches COVID-19.  On the other hand, if it is the high exposure group that is getting the vaccine - even with 231 cases, it might be below the 50% threshold.

I guess what I'm sayin is that we need a good idea of how the sample was chosen before the results can be interpreted.  Also 3 months is such a short time that there might not be adequate statistical power to tell if there is an effect, unless they are highly effective.

TheDeamon

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2020, 10:27:06 PM »
#2 I think it is impossible to determine any motive of "just to help his re-election chances". It could just as easily be to save lives in a calculated risk. Putin rushed out a stage 1  :o, and he doesn't have to worry about any opposition because he has barrels full of poison.

If Putin screws up too much he risks a coup or assassination.  So while he doesn't have election risk, there are other risks that a Dictator risks if the populace becomes too unhappy.  Unfortunately we don't know how much his popularity dropped since May.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-russia-putins-popularity-rating-falls-to-historic-low.html

China is doing so for economic reasons.  They risk a loss of power due to COVID-19 if there economy slows too much.

In this case, their flooding problems are almost a godsend, otherwise they probably would have been looking to do some economic stimulation through some military actions. But as it is, if they do that, they're likely to slapped with sanctions preventing them from being able to feed their people, which would only make their situation worse. Once they recover from the food supply problems, there may still be a war risk to contend with if things don't pick up globally and domestically for them. But the good news/bad news for them is the flooding has just given them something to sink all kinds of economic activity into for a few months at least.

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#3 Safety should be pretty straightforward. Other drugs need a long time to evaluate because people have to take the drug on their daily schedule for quite some time.

There are a few safety risks due to vaccines - The most important is that some trial vaccines have had the opposite of the intended effect - they can make the person more likely to die if they contract the virus.  This has happened with other vaccine trials for SARS viruses (I can't recall if it was SARS-CoV-1 or MERS).  I think that was discovered in the phase 3 trials.

Still might not be "a bad trade" on the meta-scale, even if it sucks for the unlucky persons in question. If the vaccine reduces the serious complication rate to say 1 in 10,000(pulling s number out of thin air, haven't looked at the mortality numbers in a long while) then the increased risk of death if you do get noticeably sick with Covid19 is still better than the alternative.

LetterRip

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2020, 10:48:57 PM »
In this case, their flooding problems are almost a godsend, otherwise they probably would have been looking to do some economic stimulation through some military actions.

You can upgrade schools, upgrade agricultural infrastructure, upgrade transport infrastructure, invest in space exploration, etc.  Military is the worst possible method of economic stimulus.

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Still might not be "a bad trade" on the meta-scale, even if it sucks for the unlucky persons in question. If the vaccine reduces the serious complication rate to say 1 in 10,000(pulling s number out of thin air, haven't looked at the mortality numbers in a long while) then the increased risk of death if you do get noticeably sick with Covid19 is still better than the alternative.

Impossible to say at this time, so we are in 'wait and see mode' for now.

TheDeamon

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2020, 07:07:55 PM »
In this case, their flooding problems are almost a godsend, otherwise they probably would have been looking to do some economic stimulation through some military actions.

You can upgrade schools, upgrade agricultural infrastructure, upgrade transport infrastructure, invest in space exploration, etc.  Military is the worst possible method of economic stimulus.

They've been dumping money on infrastructure for decades now. Due to corruption, they could probably stand to go back and redo a lot of what was done previously, but with their luck, they'd tear down the stuff that was built properly and replace it with more of the bad stuff.

They're slowly working on space, but that's limited on the scope of economic engagement it provides. It also doesn't doesn't generate revenue, just costs(for now; although I'd LOVE to see a space race 2.0 come kicking along at this stage).

Their transport infrastructure is a complicated matter, they have upgrades and expansions they could desperately use, but again, it can only be built so fast and requires specialized skills. (And leaves open the problem of what to do with those workers after the construction boom ends) Also, part of their belt-and-road initiative was an effort to outsource their engineers and contractors by getting other nations to buy into their debt-trap diplomacy approach to neo-colonialism where they get "loans" from China to pay for the work, where a loan default gives China a military or other strategic asset in exchange.

The list goes on and on. However, none of those activities does anything to address idle workers on the homefront due to factories being idled. The factories need to be getting used for something, and a military engaged in a war is really good at using things. If you can manage to win whatever war you engage in, you can even end up with even more things.

But you have to be able to win that war, and that means not attracting the attention of the world's currently reigning super-power.

yossarian22c

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2020, 09:37:16 PM »
The list goes on and on. However, none of those activities does anything to address idle workers on the homefront due to factories being idled. The factories need to be getting used for something, and a military engaged in a war is really good at using things. If you can manage to win whatever war you engage in, you can even end up with even more things.

People are good at using things too. Find a way to hand out enough money for the plebes to buy the factory stuff that isn't being shipped over seas. A lot simpler and more productive than financing a way to convert the factories to make munitions and tanks. Big wars stimulate economies after the war is over because the government borrows a lot of money while encouraging individuals to save and delay purchases because the factories aren't producing consumer goods. Then when the war ends you get the result of the pent up demand along with a populace that has the means to buy stuff. You could skip the killing and just make sure your populace has the means to purchase goods to start with.

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2020, 10:19:55 PM »
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He has proven his devotion to the nation and to the common man. His support and reverence for the military is unassailable. Saying he called those who died in the support of the nation, "losers" and "suckers" is like saying Mother Theresa talking Smack about poor people.

LMAO. That is hilarious!  ;D

You seriously believe a man who said, “He’s not a war hero. He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured,” could not possibly "talk smack" about soldiers?  Who said that sleeping around with women was his "personal Vietnam" because he might have caught VD?  Who got out of Vietnam by getting a doctor to say he had bone spurs?  The support and "reverence" for the military of a person who said those things is "unassailable?"  ;D

Thanks, Lambert.  I haven't laughed that hard in quite a while. :)

I guess you never heard the other prisoners who were there with McCain who despised McCain for his actions while a prisoner? It is a moot argument now, because being a POW is enough penalty to offset most of what he did anyway. When I was set to go to Annapolis - in the Marine program, McCain was just graduating, so I followed his whole career - and heard all the complaints about him. You do know he was our first negative ace? He destroyed his own plane five times. That straw man your party created is not the supporter of the military that he really is. He was the instigator of attacks against Trump - not the oether way around. As you know, Trump already stated his only reaction to attacks against him that are untrue must be by attacking back - twice as hard - because the MSM will not vet his attackers or tell the truth.

But, you wouldn't know that, because his attackers and Never-Trumpers do no wrong. McCain didn't deserve what he got because he was a saint. When Trump said, "...He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured,” it was a mild retort on what McCain had said about Trump. But McCain was your hero, so that doesn't matter. Trump could say that about McCain because he was so positive for the military, in general, and knew he was koncking the man, not the soldier.

TheDrake

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2020, 10:50:00 PM »
What a pack of lies. He did not "destroy his own plane 5 times". He crashed once during training, he was deemed at fault. He had an engine failure. His plane caught fire on the deck of the Forrestal because of a missile accident not involving him. He nearly lost his life on that one, and we lost over 100 brave souls on that day. The fourth time was when he was shot down by a SAM, which can't reasonably be called "destroying his own plane" unless every downed pilot has destroyed their own plane. In the final incident, the plane was unharmed, certainly not destroyed, although he did manage to destroy some Spanish power lines.

Wayward Son

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2020, 04:41:56 PM »
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He was the instigator of attacks against Trump - not the oether way around.

This was the attack.

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“It’s very bad,” McCain, who was eager to talk about Trump, told me on Monday when I stopped by his Senate office. ... He was particularly rankled by Trump’s rally. “This performance with our friend out in Phoenix is very hurtful to me,” McCain said. “Because what he did was he fired up the crazies.”

Vicious, right?  To note that some of Trump supporters are crazy.

This is how Trump responded.

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Frank I. Luntz
Referring to -- to -- John McCain, a war hero, five and a half years as a POW, and you call him a dummy. Is that appropriate in running for president?

Donald J. Trump
You have to let me speak, Frank, because you interrupt me all the time. No, I know him too well, that's the problem. Let's take John McCain. I'm in Phoenix. We have a meeting that is going to have 500 people at the Biltmore Hotel. We get a call from the hotel, it's turmoil. Thousands and thousands of people are showing up three, four days before -- they're pitching tents on the hotel grass. The hotel says, we cannot handle this, because it will destroy the hotel. We move it to the Convention Center. We have 15,000 people -- the biggest one ever. Bigger than Bernie Sanders, bigger than -- 15,000 people showed up to hear me speak.

Bigger than anybody, and everybody knows it. A beautiful day with incredible people that were wonderful, great Americans. I will tell you. John McCain goes, oh, boy, Trump makes my life difficult. He had 15,000 crazies show up. Crazies, he called them all crazy. I said, they were not crazy. They were great Americans. These people, if you were to see these people -- I know what a crazy is. I know all about crazies. These weren't crazy.

So he insulted me and he insulted everybody in that room. I said, somebody should run against John McCain who has been, in my opinion, not so hot. And I supported him. I supported him for president. I raised $1 million for him. That's a lot of money. I supported him. He lost, he let us down. But, you know, he lost. So I have never liked him as much after that, because I don't like losers.

[Laughter]

But, Frank -- Frank, let me get to him.

Frank I. Luntz
He is a war hero, he's a war hero.

Donald J. Trump
He hit me -- he's not a war hero.

Frank I. Luntz
Five and a half years...

Donald J. Trump
He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren't captured, OK? I hate to tell you.

(CROSSTALK)

He was a war hero because he was captured, OK? And I believe -- perhaps he is a war hero, but right now, he said some very bad things about a lot of people. So what I said is John McCain, I disagree with him, that these people aren't crazy. And very importantly, and I speak the truth, he graduated last in his class at Annapolis. So I said, nobody knows that. I said, he graduated last -- or second to last, he graduated last in his class at Annapolis.

And he was upset, I said, for what? For telling the truth? See, you're not you're supposed to say that somebody graduated last, or second to last in their class, because you're supposed to be like Frank says, very nice. Folks, I want to make America great again. We want to get down to brass tacks.

What a petty little man Trump is.  He supported McCain, and then McCain makes a disparaging remark about his followers, so he insults every single soldier captured during a war.  Because he wants to prove that McCain wasn't a war hero.

Remember that McCain was offered released early from the POW camp because of his father military position, and he refused until all the prisoners captured before him were released.  Who was subsequently tortured because of not leaving?  Who attempted to kill himself twice during that time?  Could you have done that?  Do you think General Bonespurs could have done that?

But, no, Trump is perfectly reasonable to call every POW "not a hero" because McCain attacked some of Trump's followers as being "crazies."  This shows Trump is a man who has only the highest respect for our military and the sacrifices they have made.  That he is "unassailable" in his respect and support.  That he couldn't possibly have called fallen soldiers "losers" and "suckers." Because 5 1/2 years being a captive and tortured for your country doesn't make a person a "hero."  ::)

Sure, its the Never-Trumps who think their man can do no wrong.  :P

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2020, 05:20:19 PM »
...What a petty little man Trump is.  He supported McCain, and then McCain makes a disparaging remark about his followers, so he insults every single soldier captured during a war.  Because he wants to prove that McCain wasn't a war hero.

Remember that McCain was offered released early from the POW camp because of his father military position, and he refused until all the prisoners captured before him were released.  Who was subsequently tortured because of not leaving?  Who attempted to kill himself twice during that time?  Could you have done that?  Do you think General Bonespurs could have done that?

But, no, Trump is perfectly reasonable to call every POW "not a hero" because McCain attacked some of Trump's followers as being "crazies."  This shows Trump is a man who has only the highest respect for our military and the sacrifices they have made.  That he is "unassailable" in his respect and support.  That he couldn't possibly have called fallen soldiers "losers" and "suckers." Because 5 1/2 years being a captive and tortured for your country doesn't make a person a "hero."  ::)

Sure, its the Never-Trumps who think their man can do no wrong.  :P

McCain crashed 5 jets, plus was responsible for the Forrestal fire. There has never been another pilot who crashed more than a single plane and was allowed to keep his wings. But McCain was a legacy and his family had many admirals.

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Something made the plane behind McCain fire a rocket, which hit McCain's external center fuel tank, and caused a fire. McCain panicked, and dropped two bombs into the fire.

Surviving crewmen of the USS Forestal and those who investigated the Forrestal fire case reported that McCain deliberately 'wet-started' his A-4E Skyhawk to shake up the guy in the F-4 Phantom behind his plane. 'Wet-starts', done either deliberately (the starter motor switch allowed kerosene to pool in the engine and give a wet start) or accidentally, shoot a large flame from the tail of the aircraft.'Wet starting' was a common practice among young 'hot-dog' pilots.
In McCain's case, the 'wet-start''cooked off' and launched the M34 Zuni rocket from the rear F-4 that punctured the Skyhawk's fueltank, knocked the M-65 1000 lb bomb off it's 500 lb rated mount, and touched off the explosions and massive fire.

When the carrier USS Oriskany came along side, McCain was put in a chopper and whisked away. McCain was the only Forrestal crewman to be immediately transferred. McCain left for his own safety, because the crew wanted blood.

Do you want to go over the other four planes he crashed? It was only the last one that had anything to do with enemy action, and that one should not have happened.

TheDrake

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2020, 05:44:41 PM »
I just went over it, Lambert. The Navy inquiry into the Forrestal indicated that another aircraft had a malfunction which activated a missile, which hit an aircraft next to McCain's.

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Forrestal was the first Atlantic Fleet carrier on Yankee Station, and she had been there only five days. As the ship prepared for its second strike of the day, at 1050, everything changed. The Navy in its definitive report on the event—Manual of the Judge Advocate General Basic Final Investigative Report Concerning the Fire on Board the USS FORRESTAL (CVA-59)—concluded that a stray electrical signal ignited the motor of a Zuni rocket carried by an F-4B Phantom II on the starboard quarter and shot across the deck, striking the external fuel tank of a fully armed A-4E Skyhawk on the port. At least one of the Skyhawk’s M-65 1,000-lb. bombs fell to the deck, cracked open, and was burning with a white-hot ferocity.

Even the pilot of that aircraft was not at fault, and it wasn't McCain's in any event. But if you haven't comprehended that by now, I assume you subscribe to some bizarre conspiracy theory. I'm sure I can't convince you with facts, but I make the response so nobody else subscribes to your nonsense.

Full report

A key phrase to read, "The Investigating Officers were of the opinion that no blame attached to... any of the officers of his command... or to the pilot of the plane from which the ZUNI rocket was fired." - paragraph 8

TheDeamon

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2020, 05:48:58 PM »
I just went over it, Lambert. The Navy inquiry into the Forrestal indicated that another aircraft had a malfunction which activated a missile, which hit an aircraft next to McCain's.

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Forrestal was the first Atlantic Fleet carrier on Yankee Station, and she had been there only five days. As the ship prepared for its second strike of the day, at 1050, everything changed. The Navy in its definitive report on the event—Manual of the Judge Advocate General Basic Final Investigative Report Concerning the Fire on Board the USS FORRESTAL (CVA-59)—concluded that a stray electrical signal ignited the motor of a Zuni rocket carried by an F-4B Phantom II on the starboard quarter and shot across the deck, striking the external fuel tank of a fully armed A-4E Skyhawk on the port. At least one of the Skyhawk’s M-65 1,000-lb. bombs fell to the deck, cracked open, and was burning with a white-hot ferocity.

Even the pilot of that aircraft was not at fault, and it wasn't McCain's in any event. But if you haven't comprehended that by now, I assume you subscribe to some bizarre conspiracy theory. I'm sure I can't convince you with facts, but I make the response so nobody else subscribes to your nonsense.

Full report

A key phrase to read, "The Investigating Officers were of the opinion that no blame attached to... any of the officers of his command... or to the pilot of the plane from which the ZUNI rocket was fired." - paragraph 8

Thanks,saves me from having to go dig that up.

Of course, he's going to deny the conclusions of the JAG investigation, and say they "papered it over" to cover for the son of an Admiral. Even though the forensic evidence would tend to NOT point at where McCain's plane was parked.

Wayward Son

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2020, 06:13:04 PM »
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McCain crashed 5 jets, plus was responsible for the Forrestal fire. There has never been another pilot who crashed more than a single plane and was allowed to keep his wings. But McCain was a legacy and his family had many admirals.

He's not a hero for being a bad pilot, Lambert.  He's a hero for willingly enduring torture at the hands of the enemy, even though he had an out, and chose not to to support his fellow prisoners and to uphold the ethics of the military.

What does his piloting record have anything to do with that?  ::)

Or are you suggesting that, because he was a bad pilot, that sacrifice meant nothing:o

He willingly put himself in a situation where he could be captured and tortured for his country.  And he did get captured and tortured for his country.  What did General Bonespurs ever risk for his country?  And what gives Trump the right to disparage John McCain's sacrifice, and every other American POW's sacrifice, just because McCain called some of his supporters "crazies?"  >:(

If you consider this "unassailable" support of our military and soldiers, then I don't think you know what that word means.

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2020, 06:26:00 PM »
What did General Bonespurs ever risk for his country?
That's "Cadet Bone Spurs" to you, soldier.

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2020, 09:41:30 PM »
...he's going to deny the conclusions of the JAG investigation, and say they "papered it over" to cover for the son of an Admiral. Even though the forensic evidence would tend to NOT point at where McCain's plane was parked.


The report said A4-#405 was 100 ft. from the launched missile which was aimed forward. The "Wet start" claim was made contemporaneously, and McCain was transferred off the ship immediately. The very first finding in the report was that the accident happened in the line of duty and not as the result of misconduct of those killed, missing, or injured. Of those not killed, missing, or injured, several were blamed for "a combination of material deficiencies and team operational procedures affording less than minimal emphasis upon safety" - but redacted. I wasn't there, but several of the witnesses were incensed at McCain for something. My info comes from contemporaneous observations before the official report was filed. Please look at the reports on the other destroyed planes to see how nothing McCain did ever splashed back on him.

Before McCain, no pilot who flew into power lines was allowed to keep his wings. Much has been deleted from the servers. Look up "negative ace" and you will find nothing, even though there were myriads of reports about McCain early on. Nothing I can say will stop you from "laughter by intimidation," but you probably can't find reports on any of those crashes and results.

The more you belittle Trump on not serving, please recall at the time, it was the Democrat doctors at Fort Wayne handing out deferments. I had to fight them to not purposefully screw up my physical because I wanted to go to Annapolis, and they were helping everyone stay out of Vietnam.

rightleft22

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2020, 10:59:05 AM »
...he's going to deny the conclusions of the JAG investigation, and say they "papered it over" to cover for the son of an Admiral. Even though the forensic evidence would tend to NOT point at where McCain's plane was parked.


The report said A4-#405 was 100 ft. from the launched missile which was aimed forward. The "Wet start" claim was made contemporaneously, and McCain was transferred off the ship immediately. The very first finding in the report was that the accident happened in the line of duty and not as the result of misconduct of those killed, missing, or injured. Of those not killed, missing, or injured, several were blamed for "a combination of material deficiencies and team operational procedures affording less than minimal emphasis upon safety" - but redacted. I wasn't there, but several of the witnesses were incensed at McCain for something. My info comes from contemporaneous observations before the official report was filed. Please look at the reports on the other destroyed planes to see how nothing McCain did ever splashed back on him.

Before McCain, no pilot who flew into power lines was allowed to keep his wings. Much has been deleted from the servers. Look up "negative ace" and you will find nothing, even though there were myriads of reports about McCain early on. Nothing I can say will stop you from "laughter by intimidation," but you probably can't find reports on any of those crashes and results.

The more you belittle Trump on not serving, please recall at the time, it was the Democrat doctors at Fort Wayne handing out deferments. I had to fight them to not purposefully screw up my physical because I wanted to go to Annapolis, and they were helping everyone stay out of Vietnam.

So If I understand.  Trump doesn't like McCain and said something about Not liking soldiers who were captured. But he loves the troops... opps.. Don't focus on that, nothing to see there, focus on McCain. Find anything that might undermine his service.  Hold McCain accountable but never never Trump

Shame on you

TheDrake

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2020, 12:19:08 PM »
...he's going to deny the conclusions of the JAG investigation, and say they "papered it over" to cover for the son of an Admiral. Even though the forensic evidence would tend to NOT point at where McCain's plane was parked.


The report said A4-#405 was 100 ft. from the launched missile which was aimed forward. The "Wet start" claim was made contemporaneously, and McCain was transferred off the ship immediately. The very first finding in the report was that the accident happened in the line of duty and not as the result of misconduct of those killed, missing, or injured. Of those not killed, missing, or injured, several were blamed for "a combination of material deficiencies and team operational procedures affording less than minimal emphasis upon safety" - but redacted. I wasn't there, but several of the witnesses were incensed at McCain for something. My info comes from contemporaneous observations before the official report was filed. Please look at the reports on the other destroyed planes to see how nothing McCain did ever splashed back on him.

Before McCain, no pilot who flew into power lines was allowed to keep his wings. Much has been deleted from the servers. Look up "negative ace" and you will find nothing, even though there were myriads of reports about McCain early on. Nothing I can say will stop you from "laughter by intimidation," but you probably can't find reports on any of those crashes and results.

Yeah McCain was totally wet starting his aircraft with the nose pointing off the stern.  ::)

Show me one person that made the statement "McCain killed us all". Lots of people are mistaken minutes after a traumatic event. What doesn't lie is the *censored* camera, you idiot. And also all the command staff, the people who were there and lost comrades in arms, show me one person on the Forrestal who claims anything against McCain.

But you go on believing that the command staff, the IG, the Department of the Navy all covered up for McCain and never recanted decades later.

As for being transferred off the ship, I'd imagine that during the FING Vietnam war, every able bodied pilot was immediately reassigned to another ship that wasn't crippled.

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2020, 01:44:17 PM »
...Hold McCain accountable but never never Trump

Shame on you

Exactly the opposite. You never mention haw deeply Trumo supports the miltary and is there for them in every way. When someone attacks him about how he feels about our men and women who serve, he will respond. You just enable the abusers.

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2020, 01:47:13 PM »
The October Surprise isn't much of a surprise anymore.

We see the Dems fighting everywhere to make vote-scamming more possible, and vote-counting impossible. The existing case history shows the probability that votes will not be counted before the deadline, and Pelosi will step in as interim President.

TheDeamon

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #27 on: September 19, 2020, 02:38:00 AM »
We see the Dems fighting everywhere to make vote-scamming more possible, and vote-counting impossible. The existing case history shows the probability that votes will not be counted before the deadline, and Pelosi will step in as interim President.

That assumes the Democrats still control the house in January.

Most of the states where they've been given the green light to stuff the ballot box are Democrat controlled states in the first place. So it'll impact the popular vote more than anything else, although it can impact some potential swing states.

wmLambert

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #28 on: September 19, 2020, 08:58:47 PM »
We see the Dems fighting everywhere to make vote-scamming more possible, and vote-counting impossible. The existing case history shows the probability that votes will not be counted before the deadline, and Pelosi will step in as interim President.

That assumes the Democrats still control the house in January.

Most of the states where they've been given the green light to stuff the ballot box are Democrat controlled states in the first place. So it'll impact the popular vote more than anything else, although it can impact some potential swing states.

No. If the election is protested by those thousands of Democrat attorneys standing by to throw a wrench in the process, then The House and Senate votes will also be up for grabs, needing SCOTUS opinion.

Wayward Son

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #29 on: October 06, 2020, 04:38:13 PM »
Could someone pick one of those "Democrat controlled states" where you believe they can "stuff the ballot box" and explain just how that could be effectively done?

For instance, I don't see how that could be done in California (although you gotta wonder who would bother? :) )

Please be specific, in how each of the safeguards the state has enacted to prevent voter fraud would be avoided.

Because right now, it all sounds like a bunch of B.S. to me. :)

rightleft22

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #30 on: October 06, 2020, 04:48:51 PM »
Crazy rabbit tricks are for kids

All you need to fool the kids is a example of of a few ballots being mishandled or such to be proof of that all the safe guards are failing even if the safe guards discovered the errors.

It's choosing where to apply the law of when a few "bad apples"  represents the whole or not, however that game to choose which way the law is applied can only be played by the GOP
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 04:51:27 PM by rightleft22 »

Wayward Son

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #31 on: October 06, 2020, 05:49:06 PM »
Of course, Trump isn't even waiting for a few bad apples to show up.  He's already insisting that mail in ballots will cause a fraudulent election.

So I'm just trying to find out how that could be done.  If anyone's even figured out how it could be done.  How it could make a big enough difference to change the election outcome.

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #32 on: October 10, 2020, 09:37:44 AM »
Not exactly a surprise: Federal judge blocks Texas order limiting ballot drop-off sites to 1 per county

Quote
(Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge blocked on Friday an order from Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott limiting the number of drop-off sites allowed for absentee ballots statewide to just one per county, a constraint Democrats denounced as blatant voter suppression.
...
“These burdens fall disproportionately on voters who are elderly, disabled, or live in larger counties,” Pitman, who sits in Austin, the state capital, wrote in his 46-page decision.

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2020, 09:50:04 AM »
Not exactly a surprise: Federal judge blocks Texas order limiting ballot drop-off sites to 1 per county

And in related news, Federal judge grants injunction requiring Ohio Secretary of State LaRose to allow ballot drop boxes.

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A federal judge ruled Thursday that Ohio's county board of elections will be able to offer off-site drop boxes for absentee ballots, just over three weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

U.S. District Judge Dan Polster blocked Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose's order, which had prevented off-site drop boxes, The Cincinnati Enquirer reported.
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"While it may be said that the 7,903 registered voters in Noble County may find a single dropbox location sufficient, the record demonstrates that the 858,041 registered voters in Cuyahoga County will likely not," Polster wrote in his decision.

"The secretary is continuing to restrict boards from implementing off-site collection, and he appears to be doing so in an arbitrary manner," he added.

Sadly, it seems like the Republican party has decided to use this particular disenfranchisement tool more broadly across the country.

Mynnion

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #34 on: October 10, 2020, 11:18:31 AM »
Madison WI - The City of Madison hosted an event called Democracy in the park where poll workers would collect absentee ballots at the city parks and act as witnesses when needed.  After more than 10000 ballots were collected the state GOP said that they might sue to block the validity of the votes and that they should be counted separately.  During the 2016 election Trump won by about 23000 votes.  Madison voters are overwhelmingly democrat or left leaning independents.  My guess is that these votes will be contested if the race is close.  My wife and I were going to drop ours off but after hearing this changed our minds.  Voter suppression at it's finest.

noel c.

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #35 on: October 10, 2020, 03:57:53 PM »

“Sadly, it seems like the Republican party has decided to use this particular disenfranchisement tool more broadly across the country.”

Drop box voting... what could possibly go wrong?

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #36 on: October 10, 2020, 04:58:28 PM »
Exactly.

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2020, 09:10:38 AM »
So, Fox News and the rest of the conservative propaganda machine seems to be foaming at the mouth over the recent release of previously classified intelligence analyses documents by John Ratcliffe, Trump's Director of National Intelligence.

The gist of it seems to be that the analysis involves intercepted Russian intelligence concerning the Clinton campaign's effort to tie the Trump campaign to Russian election interference.

For the Clinton campaign to make claims about Russia and the Trump campaign is neither surprising nor illegal.  So what, exactly, is the issue?

DonaldD

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2020, 12:57:59 PM »
Sadly, it seems like the Republican party has decided to use this particular disenfranchisement tool more broadly across the country.
Apparently, the GOP's hypocrisy has no bounds (OK, OK, "dog bites man" etc, etc)

It turns out that the GOP is just fine constraining boards of elections, the entities tasked with actually running a secure election, from setting up more than 1 official drop off location for 4.5 million people in Houston, while at the same time actually installing on their own Unofficial Ballot Drop-Off Boxes Deemed Illegal By California State Officials that they also mislabel as being "official" drop boxes.

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After being flagged about the issue on Twitter, Orange County Registrar Neal Kelley responded:"We are looking into this and the CA Secretary of State has also issued guidance confirming unofficial ballot drop boxes are not in compliance with state law.” Kelley noted that while third party ballot collections were allowed, “a voter must designate someone to return their ballot on their behalf."

yossarian22c

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Re: October Surprise
« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2020, 01:07:56 PM »
From the same article.

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On Friday, a regional field director posted a photo on Twitter showing him holding a ballot in front of a box with the label “Official ballot drop-off box,” writing: “Doing my part and voting early… DM me for convenient locations to drop your ballot off at!”

California law could be interpreted to potentially allow a drop box (if I'm being generous) but labeling it an official ballot drop-off box just seems like outright fraud.