Author Topic: Election Results  (Read 157826 times)

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1800 on: January 10, 2022, 02:06:07 PM »
And the Russia thing, I guess I'll respond to that. Not one person of any substance suggested that Russia turned the election. Just that they attempted to influence it, which they most certainly did.
It's a very hard thing to measure.  The main effect was via online misinformation, and it's not like there was any shortage of that, home-grown.  (Whether of the industrial botfarm sort, or by enthusiast amateurs.)  You'd need to somehow measure the total effect of all that, then some-further-how, disentangle that by source.  Given the narrowness of the result in swing-state margin terms, it's also hard to say it's unlikely to have made a difference.

Of course, interference and collusion aren't at all the same thing.  The (I guess we should say "alleged" and "reported", given The Former Regime's success in somehow managing to keep or spring themselves out of prison concerning it) amount of the latter doesn't seem at all likely to have affected anything.

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I will also say, after looking up some old articles, there was a certain subgroup that was hopeful that electors would be faithless and cast their ballot for Clinton even though their state tallied for Trump. That is in a similar ballpark, and it did include some Democrat members of Congress. They succeeded in flipping seven electors, so they even had more success than their violent right wing counterparts. Some of these electors did face threats of violence, including death threats. I would be comfortable labeling the people involved in that effort as attempting a coup.
The electoral college is just...  weird.  At best, it looks like another powdered-wig and knee-breeches relic.  Increasingly, it looks like another piece of the jigsaw deliberately being instrumentalised to nudge the US from Flawed Democracy towards Post-.  Or as the social-media memes like to put it, "THE US IS NOT A DEMOCRACY!", before scolding anyone disagreeing on their lack of knowledge of "Civics 101", and shrieking at the very idea of Californians thinking their vote might be equal to anyone else's.

But I essentially agree that the fix clearly isn't the faithless elector one.  It's a little different to quantify how "bad" such behaviour is, as clearly the role has evolved historically, and at present the legal situation varies hugely from state to state:  the faithless vote can be illegal, void, both, or neither.  The logical solution is that there should be federal law meaningfully governing federal elections, but that's clearly the last thing that'll happen.

msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1801 on: January 12, 2022, 03:49:06 PM »
Ok so Trump supporters in certain states sent in forged info about the results of the elections in their states.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/swing-state-trumpers-forged-letters-145502210.html

A guess fraud is OK as long as it helps your guy.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1802 on: January 12, 2022, 04:18:01 PM »
But you know, it's not like anybody wanted an insurrection or a coup.

They must be secret Antifa trying to make Trump supporters look bad.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1803 on: January 12, 2022, 04:30:12 PM »
Totally fine thing to do, or in the alternative, somebody else did the same thing in the past, might do the same thing in the future, or else actually did this, so blame them.

wmLambert

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1804 on: January 12, 2022, 07:43:19 PM »
Ok so Trump supporters in certain states sent in forged info about the results of the elections in their states.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/swing-state-trumpers-forged-letters-145502210.html

A guess fraud is OK as long as it helps your guy.

Are the posters here so vote-scam oriented that they can't understand the law? Of course Maddow made this an issue, but in general - electors are who are voted for in elections. The electors who believed they were elected were not scamming, but presenting their documents the same way opposing elector groups have done for decades. Of course electoral groups who side with the vote-scamming will claim the documents are forgeries. However; if the courts had accepted the standing of the hundreds of legal affidavits from eyewitnesses alleging vote-scamming, then the courts might have some relevance. As it is, not ruling is not the same as validating a free election.

msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1805 on: January 12, 2022, 07:48:11 PM »
From what I understand, the electors do not send these documents to the the Federal Gov. The State does. And they are not the State. And the ones in AZ used the State Seal, which is against the law.

I love how the Law and Order WmLambert thinks the law does not apply when his guy looses.  Trump lost AZ. Every audit and recount shows this, even the Cyber Ninja one.

Why won't CyberNinjas turn over the documents? They have spent more money fighting the legal order than they would have spent if they just turned over the documents. What are they trying to hide?

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1806 on: January 12, 2022, 08:30:23 PM »
Ok so Trump supporters in certain states sent in forged info about the results of the elections in their states.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/swing-state-trumpers-forged-letters-145502210.html

A guess fraud is OK as long as it helps your guy.

Are the posters here so vote-scam oriented that they can't understand the law? Of course Maddow made this an issue, but in general - electors are who are voted for in elections. The electors who believed they were elected were not scamming, but presenting their documents the same way opposing elector groups have done for decades. Of course electoral groups who side with the vote-scamming will claim the documents are forgeries. However; if the courts had accepted the standing of the hundreds of legal affidavits from eyewitnesses alleging vote-scamming, then the courts might have some relevance. As it is, not ruling is not the same as validating a free election.

You can't put out a document with the state seal on it when you aren't part of the state government, but I'm sure you have some weird sovereign state argument justifying that or really any action taken to ignore duly elected victors.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1807 on: January 13, 2022, 12:41:36 PM »
Are the posters here so vote-scam oriented that they can't understand the law?
Some, to be sure.  Just not the ones you evidently have in mind.

msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1808 on: January 17, 2022, 09:39:17 AM »
Another audit in a county that Trump won in MI shows no fraud.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-evidence-fraud-found-gop-132352318.html

How many more audits do there need to be to show that Trump is lying about fraud?

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1809 on: January 17, 2022, 10:01:49 AM »
It's mathematically impossible for Trump to lie.  If he says something that roughly corresponds with the facts, or with the facts as his supporters would like them to be, he's a genius.  If they don't, he was speaking metaphorically.

rightleft22

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1810 on: January 17, 2022, 11:52:05 AM »
Trump always says what he says, says it like it is... unless he didn't say it.
Don't worry your pretty little head "I am you voice"....

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1811 on: January 17, 2022, 12:54:02 PM »
How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop? There is not now, and was never any evidence supporting this fantasy about massive secret undetectable voter fraud. The fact that 40% of the country is chanting "Let's go Brandon" and thinks that there were millions of illegal votes spells the end of the Republic. I never thought I'd ever feel nostalgic about the era of George Bush or wish that Romney won.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1812 on: January 17, 2022, 01:36:55 PM »
The fact that 40% of the country is chanting "Let's go Brandon" and thinks that there were millions of illegal votes spells the end of the Republic.
Oh, it'll still be a Republic. I mean, Iran and China are undeniably factually republics, as well as saying so right in the name.  But like the zookbook meme likes to say, "America is not a democracy."  The "democratic" part is looking more and more tarnished, and might be in the ICU before too long.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1813 on: January 17, 2022, 11:54:55 PM »
I found this article interesting. It's talking about corporate fraud and whether or not auditors should be expected to find it. How much overlap is there to voter fraud? No idea.

https://www.allbusiness.com/why-didnt-the-auditors-find-the-fraud-4967920-1.html

"There’s just one problem: Audits are not designed to detect fraud. The procedures aren’t likely to find fraud. The rules don’t require the auditors to detect fraud. So why on earth are companies and shareholders trying to hold auditors responsible for the bad behavior of employees?

... The company must set up policies and procedures to prevent fraud. The company must properly monitor employees to make sure that transactions are properly authorized and recorded. The company must make sure that fraud isn’t occurring. Management is responsible for oversight of its own employees and processes.

There are times during traditional audits when the auditors have the opportunity to detect fraud. But there are two questions that must be asked:

Could the auditors have detected the fraud?

Should the auditors have detected the fraud?

The first question is fairly straightforward. If you examine the audit procedures objectively, do you see that fraud could have been detected during the audit? Many times, the answer is “no.” That is, the people within the company engaging in fraud did such a good job of covering their misdeeds that the audit procedures had almost no chance of finding the fraud.

Employees become familiar with the audit process and the type and magnitude of transactions that the auditors will typically examine. They go out of their way to cover a fraud by ensuring that the books are doctored in such a way that the auditors won’t ever look at the transactions related to the fraud."

-------------------------------------------------

I'm not going to get all up in arms about the possibility of massive voter fraud, but I'm also not going to berate the people who remain unconvinced. Even more so than in corporations, our voting system isn't well designed for voter fraud prevention or detection after the fact. Just like in corporations if not more so, if there are people engaging in massive voter fraud they have access to the systems, perfect knowledge of them, and know how to cover their tracks, and it doesn't help that the Democrats don't even want voter I.D. and the other reasonable precautions to limit the opportunity for fraud.

I'm not seeing any evidence of massive voter fraud so I'm almost willing to let it go. Now all we need to seal the deal is Democrats going along with some normal voting integrity procedures and I'd be willing to have a little more faith, but instead Pelosi insists that every attempt to make elections more secure actually does the opposite and undermines our entire democratic foundation. That's just suspect.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1814 on: January 18, 2022, 04:37:40 AM »
I'm not seeing any evidence of massive voter fraud so I'm almost willing to let it go. Now all we need to seal the deal is Democrats going along with some normal voting integrity procedures and I'd be willing to have a little more faith, but instead Pelosi insists that every attempt to make elections more secure actually does the opposite and undermines our entire democratic foundation. That's just suspect.
So, there's no actual fraud, but Democrats should meet you half way on "normal" levels of voter suppression, otherwise it's "suspect".  Depends on the Overton Window of your suspicions, evidently.

Wayward Son

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1815 on: January 18, 2022, 03:53:03 PM »
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Now all we need to seal the deal is Democrats going along with some normal voting integrity procedures and I'd be willing to have a little more faith, but instead Pelosi insists that every attempt to make elections more secure actually does the opposite and undermines our entire democratic foundation. That's just suspect.

OK, cherry, which of these points do you consider "normal voting integrity procedures," and which "undermines our entire democratic foundation?"

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(I)n case the bill actually becomes law, here's what's in it:

o A ban on partisan gerrymanders
o Limits on states' ability to remove voting officials
o Limits on what poll watchers can and cannot do
o Voting systems must leave a paper trail
o Mandatory online and same-day voter registration
o Automatic registration of people upon interactions with state governments (e.g., the DMV)
o Minimum of 15 days of early voting
o Universal absentee balloting
o Widely available drop boxes
o Ballots postmarked by Election Day, and received within 7 days, would be valid
o Debit cards, utility bills, bank statements, and sworn/witnessed statements would count as voter ID
o Felons regain voting rights upon release from prison
o No prohibitions on giving food/water to people waiting to vote
o Greater (though somewhat unspecific) rights to sue for voter discrimination
o Greater disclosure of "dark money" sources
o Special protections for Native American voters
o Election Day made into a federal holiday in presidential and midterm years
o Fixing the Voting Rights Act of 1965, per Chief Justice John Roberts' instructions, to once again require that states and localities with a history of discrimination get pre-clearance for changes to voting rules

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1816 on: January 18, 2022, 04:46:51 PM »
o No prohibitions on giving food/water to people waiting to vote
I mean, that one's just outrageous.  Obviously when James Madison talked about protecting the opulent minority, that constitutes a binding precedent, wherein the Founding Fathers[sic] precluded the possibility of people in urban districts with completely coincidentally longer queues to vote having their basic bodily needs in any way subvented, over and above their personal private means to take care of themselves.  Poor people?  At the polls?  There's your steal right there!

msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1817 on: January 18, 2022, 04:56:06 PM »
Remember Trump even said that if everyone could vote, then the Republicans would never win again. I think Rand Paul said the same thing.  It is not about winning the war of ideas, it is about only letting your people vote.

NobleHunter

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1818 on: January 18, 2022, 07:47:27 PM »
The problem is that the conservatives don't have any ideas besides cutting taxes and spending money on the military. It's hard to get elected on the platform of driving up the national debt with nothing productive to show for it.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1819 on: January 18, 2022, 08:48:09 PM »
Conservatives have lots of ideas!  Admittedly they're all terrible, and for each of them you can even find other flavours of self-described conservative that think so, too.

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1820 on: January 19, 2022, 01:10:11 PM »
o No prohibitions on giving food/water to people waiting to vote
I mean, that one's just outrageous.  Obviously when James Madison talked about protecting the opulent minority, that constitutes a binding precedent, wherein the Founding Fathers[sic] precluded the possibility of people in urban districts with completely coincidentally longer queues to vote having their basic bodily needs in any way subvented, over and above their personal private means to take care of themselves.  Poor people?  At the polls?  There's your steal right there!

You do realize, most of the states that have restrictions on such things don't outright ban the giving of food and water to people waiting in line.

What they ban are partisan groups giving out food and water while waiting in line. Something about no campaigning when within XX distance of a voting location?

And I also love the observation about the voting lines. You do realize that is largely under the control of the local(county level) election officials in determining how they're going to staff their voting precincts?

So cry me a river when a Democrat controlled county, in a democrat controlled state, has people complaining about voting lines in a democrat-leaning precinct. (New York City anyone?)

They have a little more room to complain in states like Georgia and Texas because the Republicans control things at the state level, but the country level where a lot of those problem precincts exist? Oh hey, still democrat controlled.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1821 on: January 19, 2022, 01:32:51 PM »
Actually Georgia banned everyone. Only designated poll workers can give out "self-service water from an unattended receptacle". Which, they don't do. You can be wearing a plain white t-shirt and wordlessly hand someone a bottle of water and you'll be breaking the law.

Why don't those lousy democrats running Houston just add more polling places? Because state law prohibits them from doing so. Okay fine, why can't Chicago just add more polling places? In a way, they are. Via early voting (hated by Republicans - too convenient). Mail in voting (don't get started on this one). Expanded hours. Curbside ballot submission. Making election day a state and school holiday.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1822 on: January 19, 2022, 01:43:13 PM »
Mail in voting (don't get started on this one.
As opposed to "a legitimate absentee ballot to which I'm fully entitled".  Whose definition seems to be, "mail-in voting while Republican".

Lloyd Perna

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1823 on: January 19, 2022, 04:30:22 PM »
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Why don't those lousy democrats running Houston just add more polling places? Because state law prohibits them from doing so

Google isn't being helpful.  I hope you're able to cite the law in question if you make a statement like that.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1824 on: January 19, 2022, 04:41:53 PM »
Emphasis mine.

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The number of Election Day polling places in largely Democratic parts of major Texas counties would fall dramatically under a Republican proposal to change how Texas polling sites are distributed, a Texas Tribune analysis shows. Voting options would be curtailed most in areas with higher shares of voters of color.

Relocating polling sites is part of the GOP’s priority voting bill — Senate Bill 7 — as it was passed in the Texas Senate. It would create a new formula for setting polling places in the handful of mostly Democratic counties with a population of 1 million or more. Although the provision was removed from the bill when passed in the House, it remains on the table as a conference committee of lawmakers begins hammering out a final version of the bill behind closed doors.

Under that provision, counties would be required to distribute polling places based on the share of registered voters in each state House district within the county. The formula would apply only to the state’s five largest counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis — and possibly Collin County once new census figures are released later this year.

Comprehensive article

I'm not 100% certain on the final form of this particular bill, but you can see that the state level legislation directs counties on how to conduct their polling locations.

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1825 on: January 19, 2022, 06:19:42 PM »
Emphasis mine.

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Under that provision, counties would be required to distribute polling places based on the share of registered voters in each state House district within the county. The formula would apply only to the state’s five largest counties — Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis — and possibly Collin County once new census figures are released later this year.

Comprehensive article

I'm not 100% certain on the final form of this particular bill, but you can see that the state level legislation directs counties on how to conduct their polling locations.

Depending on the specifics of the formula, I'm not sure how you're wanting to proclaim that to be particularly nefarious. Seems to be stipulating that they create voting precincts with roughly equivalent numbers of voters in each precinct. That's extremely reasonable.

Now unless you're stipulating that the formula also sets requirements which means the resulting precinct sizes themselves would be "unreasonably large" as a result, I don't see the problem.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1826 on: January 19, 2022, 06:37:29 PM »
I'm not declaring anything nefarious, I'm contesting the statement that a county has the power to decide to open more polling stations. I haven't studied the formulae to understand fully all the options open to a county. But it stands to reason that counties containing less than the total number of a congressional district would still get to have one polling station and therefore fewer people going there than to the ones in a populated district - thus why the proposal in this case would only affect the largest counties - which are urban areas. The linked article describes the number of "lost" polling stations but doesn't show their math and so I can't walk through all the calculations without digging through the legislation itself.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1827 on: January 19, 2022, 07:30:44 PM »
Not merely contesting, but conclusively proving -- you'd have thought TD2 might have acknowledged that, having so boldly asserted the contrary.

It does indeed have the whiff of nefariousness.  Even Texan Republicans aren't so brazen -- or dumb -- as to pass the "Fewer Polling Places for Uppity Black Folks Act, 2022".  So you crank the handle and find a formula that produces that result, without having to spell it out.  Texas has 254 counties.  This legislation applies to just five.  All but two D-represented districts lose polling places.  Every single R-represented one stays the same or gains.  But that's only fair, pesky privileged Black Dems had too many polling places to start with!  But did they?  That's impossible to know without knowing the voting patterns.  Number of mail-ins vs in-persons, uptake of early voting, voting at peak vs slack times, etc.  Long lines to vote?  Tough, have even longer hah!  Even my local Lidl has a more considerate system:  if the checkout queue reaches [THIS LINE], they'll open another.  Not tell you you should have lived near another one with shorter ones.

The maths of that may not even be in the legislation, you'd have to find it from existing practice (or back-calculate using their stated conclusions).

Lloyd Perna

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1828 on: January 19, 2022, 08:05:06 PM »
I'm not declaring anything nefarious, I'm contesting the statement that a county has the power to decide to open more polling stations. I haven't studied the formulae to understand fully all the options open to a county. But it stands to reason that counties containing less than the total number of a congressional district would still get to have one polling station and therefore fewer people going there than to the ones in a populated district - thus why the proposal in this case would only affect the largest counties - which are urban areas. The linked article describes the number of "lost" polling stations but doesn't show their math and so I can't walk through all the calculations without digging through the legislation itself.

Your own article states the provision was removed from the version that passed in the House.  I cant find any reference on what was actually adopted.

alai

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1829 on: January 19, 2022, 08:33:45 PM »
But that's only relevant to the taxonomy of successful vs unsuccessful Republicantics, not as to the nature of what state law may do, and is actively under consideration as being done, as opposed the the "obviously a county matter!" contention.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1830 on: January 19, 2022, 08:41:43 PM »
I'm not declaring anything nefarious, I'm contesting the statement that a county has the power to decide to open more polling stations. I haven't studied the formulae to understand fully all the options open to a county. But it stands to reason that counties containing less than the total number of a congressional district would still get to have one polling station and therefore fewer people going there than to the ones in a populated district - thus why the proposal in this case would only affect the largest counties - which are urban areas. The linked article describes the number of "lost" polling stations but doesn't show their math and so I can't walk through all the calculations without digging through the legislation itself.

Your own article states the provision was removed from the version that passed in the House.  I cant find any reference on what was actually adopted.

Yeah, I couldn't find out what passed in the final bill either, which I stipulated in the first place. This whole thing isn't whether "unfair thing got done" it was "can unfair thing happen". Whatever the old formula was still exists also.

If you'd like, you can plow through the list

You can even argue that they are all fantastic rules. It doesn't change the fact that the state statute prevents counties from doing certain things to relieve long lines.

powerpoint can help