Author Topic: Election Results  (Read 26926 times)

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #150 on: November 05, 2020, 09:14:24 AM »
And which of the battleground states sent out unsolicited ballots?
Ummm... Nevada? Don't let the facts get in the way of a good conspiracy, yoss.

Conspiracy? What conspiracy? That there isn't massive widespread voter fraud? I've been told repeatedly by Republicans that such fraud exists but they never provide any evidence, or if they do its one guy who voted for his dead mom in one election.

You're right that Nevada did send out mail in ballots like neighboring Utah.

But be specific about fraud claims. I could easily claim that the difference between the polls and vote totals shows that Trump ran a massive voter fraud campaign in Florida. Even that circumstantial evidence is more evidence than is being provided for widespread massive democratic voter fraud.

oldbrian

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #151 on: November 05, 2020, 09:27:48 AM »
Since I can't edit my previous post, and Seriati's post came in while I was typing:

He has convinced me that even though he says the words 'typical democrat voter' what he really means is 'typical democrat official'  because every single argument he made was centered around what happens in D.C.

So my entire argument with him is out the window, since I was talking about regular people and he was talking about party leaders and elected officials.  Even when I called his attention to the fact that he was supposed to be talking about the voters, his response was about what the party did or what Mueller did.

So I take it back.  I once again believe that HE believes the regular voters are well meaning.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #152 on: November 05, 2020, 09:28:32 AM »
I was assuming that Trump might win Pennsylvania and Biden only get 270 EVs.  That's still in the air though.  It's possible that Biden could win Penn as well.  I don't expect him to win Georgia or North Carolina.  I predict Biden wins with 270 or 290.  Let's be honest, it wasn't a blowout landslide.  If Biden had won Florida along with Georgia and North Carolina, it would be different.
There's only 0.4% between then in Georgia, and the big cities (primarily Des) are under-reporting.  Plus, Biden's vote tallies since the majority of in-person ballots were processed (so, mail-in primarily) have been exceeding Trump's by about 40%.  Unless that trend changes, Biden will comfortably take Georgia.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #153 on: November 05, 2020, 09:30:48 AM »
Yoss, I think you missed the sarcasm.  Nevada is the only battleground state that sent out unsolicited ballots.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 09:42:50 AM by DonaldD »

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #154 on: November 05, 2020, 09:33:41 AM »
Yoss, I think you missed the sarcasm.  Nevada is the only battleground state that sent out unsolicited ballots.
Sorry didn't look at who wrote the post. The fact is its the response I was expecting from Noel, assuming he gave a substantial one. Sarcasm/satire is hard in the age of Trump.


DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #155 on: November 05, 2020, 10:21:32 AM »
If Pennsylvania continues at this pace, Biden will take that state by 2.8%
As the count % in Pennsylvania has increased from 80% to 91%, Biden's share of the recently counted vote has not just averaged 75% over that 11% tranche, but it has been consistently between 70% and 80% for each incremental sub-tranche.

If the same trend holds true for the remaining 9% of uncounted votes, Biden's margin over Trump will likely be on the order of 3% to 3.5%.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #156 on: November 05, 2020, 10:48:03 AM »
Pennsylvania is drifting toward Biden. The gap in Arizona has been tightening as well. I didn't see much movement in Nevada. It will be interesting to see how this all turns out. I'm hopeful of a Biden win but don't see it as a sure thing yet.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #157 on: November 05, 2020, 10:57:33 AM »
Beginning to look like Georgia could flip for Biden.  Should know by noonish time to this evening.  Depending on how you're counting Arizona, this would put Biden over the top. 

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #158 on: November 05, 2020, 11:11:21 AM »
Nevada stopped reporting all counts yesterday... maybe because of the shooting.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #159 on: November 05, 2020, 11:18:07 AM »
Georgia is pretty much a done deal, and was looking that way since yesterday afternoon.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #160 on: November 05, 2020, 11:26:56 AM »
I'm not seeing where there would be enough ballots left in Georgia to finish flipping it. Is Georgia accepting mail in ballots post marked by election day and received by Friday?

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #161 on: November 05, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »
I'm not seeing where there would be enough ballots left in Georgia to finish flipping it. Is Georgia accepting mail in ballots post marked by election day and received by Friday?
Trump's lead is about 18,000, and there are about 200,000 votes left to count.

96% complete, 4,800,000 counted so far.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #162 on: November 05, 2020, 11:37:11 AM »
Of course, that assumes the %complete is accurate and based on votes counted/votes received

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #163 on: November 05, 2020, 11:39:33 AM »
I'm not seeing where there would be enough ballots left in Georgia to finish flipping it. Is Georgia accepting mail in ballots post marked by election day and received by Friday?
Trump's lead is about 18,000, and there are about 200,000 votes left to count.

96% complete, 4,800,000 counted so far.

Okay, NPR/AP has the same total but is estimating 99% of the vote has been counted.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #164 on: November 05, 2020, 11:45:24 AM »
Even with 99% reporting, that would still be sufficient.  It would be closer, but 50,000 is still more than Trump's 18,000 lead.

As an aside, Trump's lead is now down to 15,000.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #165 on: November 05, 2020, 12:02:43 PM »
Hmmm... saw a tweet referencing the Georgia Secretary of State saying there are 60,000 votes left, so the NPR 99% would be more accurate then what CNN is showing.

This should be fun - absentee ballots that were rejected can be corrected/fixed up until 5pm on Friday.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 12:04:53 PM by DonaldD »

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #166 on: November 05, 2020, 12:04:23 PM »
Hmmm... saw a tweet referencing the Georgia Secretary of State saying there are 60,000 votes left, so the NPR 99% would be more accurate then what CNN is showing.

60,000 mail in left going 2-1 for Biden would net him 20,000 and flip the state. But with 60,000 left its going to be a nail biter either way.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #167 on: November 05, 2020, 12:05:36 PM »
Yeah it won't be over.  They'll be in the automatic mandatory recount zone.

noel c.

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #168 on: November 05, 2020, 12:22:28 PM »
Grant,

“I've seen no evidence presented that supports this assertion.  Mail in ballots have been used since when?  The ease at which the process is susceptible to fraud does not prove that fraud occurred.  It simply means that there is reason to revise the laws in place.  Claiming that fraud occurred without proof is dangerous and irresponsible.  Sean Hannity is free to present his case in court.  If he has evidence, let him put it forward.”

Respectfully Grant, no, it is not irresponsible to openly assert fraud under current circumstances. To claim fraud within a system inherently susceptible to abuse, to which third party observation is the only safeguard, and is demonstrably impeded in such States as; Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan is manifestly “responsible”.

Y-22,

“And which of the battleground states sent out unsolicited ballots?”

... And/or ballot requests from dated voter rolls; Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #169 on: November 05, 2020, 12:28:20 PM »
“And which of the battleground states sent out unsolicited ballots?”

... And/or ballot requests from dated voter rolls; Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

And your assertation is that hundreds of thousands of Americans (actually only democrats) decided to commit a felony by requesting a ballot in someone else's name and then really, really, hope that the individual decided not to update their voter registration thereby immediately flagging that as a troubled ballot and then authorities then could easily go to their address and arrest the culprit.

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #170 on: November 05, 2020, 12:44:49 PM »
The mental gymnastics coming forth here are making the Hillary camp's increasingly desperate defense of Michigan in 16 look like amateur time.

Eta - Major props to Cherry for being a true blue conservative who thinks Obama is just the worst and yet has calmly acknowledged the result and just asked how we think a Biden Presidency/Republican Senate is going to unfold.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 12:47:29 PM by DJQuag »

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #171 on: November 05, 2020, 12:46:32 PM »
Respectfully Grant, no, it is not irresponsible to openly assert fraud under current circumstances. To claim fraud within a system inherently susceptible to abuse, to which third party observation is the only safeguard, and is demonstrably impeded in such States as; Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan is manifestly “responsible”.

I don't see it that way Noel.  I will repeat that just because a system is susceptible to abuse does not constitute evidence that abuse is occurring.  But you can try it out with a judge. 

Let me put it this way.  Let's say that I have a garage that I keep open.  One day I say "My neighbors are stealing from my garage".  Now, my garage is vulnerable to theft, this is true.  But when the cops show up, the first thing they're going to want to know is what is missing.  Where is the evidence that something was stolen?  Is there video?  What makes me suspect my neighbors? 

As to impeding third party observers, I have not seen anything on that.  My understanding is that people have been designated, from both parties, to be available when votes are being counted.  These are your safeguards.  Third party yahoos that want to just jump in and watch are not part of the system.  So I'm going to need some more information before I can say that the safeguards that have been put in place are being impeded. 

msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #172 on: November 05, 2020, 01:00:00 PM »
And to say that the observers are not able to stand watch over all of the mail in ballots and verify the signature of each one is just obtuse. What makes those observers qualified to verify those signatures?

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #173 on: November 05, 2020, 01:05:12 PM »
And to say that the observers are not able to stand watch over all of the mail in ballots and verify the signature of each one is just obtuse. What makes those observers qualified to verify those signatures?

They saw something someone posted on Facebook.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #174 on: November 05, 2020, 01:23:17 PM »
In Nevada Biden's lead grew from about 8,000 to 12,000 votes in the last update. An estimated 12% of the ballots are still outstanding.

Arizona is still close, it looks like Trump would need about 60% of the estimated remaining vote to get to a tie.

Pennsylvania is looking to be more in play than I originally thought it was with the early returns. 12% of the estimated vote outstanding. If Biden wins at least 60% of the vote he's going to win Pennsylvania. Biden has been doing better than that in the groups of mail in votes coming in over the last couple days so I think we may expect this to flip from Trump lead to Biden lead over the next day.

Georgia looks to be running out of votes for Biden to make up the 12,000 difference. The gap is small enough provisional ballots could come into play. If the race hinges on Georgia it could get messy, they don't have a good paper backup system for recounts.

North Carolina is still sitting undecided in case the mail in ballots post marked by election day role in. There's potentially up to 120,000 if everyone who requested one returns it. I'm not expecting that to be able to close the 75,000 vote gap in NC.

noel c.

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #175 on: November 05, 2020, 02:37:18 PM »
Grant,

“As to impeding third party observers, I have not seen anything on that.  My understanding is that people have been designated, from both parties, to be available when votes are being counted.  These are your safeguards.  Third party yahoos that want to just jump in and watch are not part of the system.  So I'm going to need some more information before I can say that the safeguards that have been put in place are being impeded.”

Your understanding is correct, however; is the “designated” observers that are lodging complaints. If the police asked you if you saw your neighbor steal from your garage, and you said; “no because her husband held me at bay thirty feet around the corner”, then you have a cause of action in filing a complaint for theft.

Y-22,

“And your assertation is that hundreds of thousands of Americans (actually only democrats) decided to commit a felony by requesting a ballot in someone else's name and then really, really, hope that the individual decided not to update their voter registration thereby immediately flagging that as a troubled ballot and then authorities then could easily go to their address and arrest the culprit.”

Yes, and not only fraudulent ballot ”requests“, but diverted live ballots intended for move-outs (9% of the population annually), and dead people. Further, given the scenario witnessed last Tuesday by designated observers held thirty feet from the “readers”, these “ballots” estimated in ~120,000 tranches, did not even need to be real ballots. They just needed to be machine readable.

At the point that Republican observer interference takes place, the burden of proof for ballot legitimacy shifts to Democrats.

noel c.

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #176 on: November 05, 2020, 02:38:30 PM »
P.S.,

You can stop pretending to be following an actual race for electors.

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #177 on: November 05, 2020, 02:49:19 PM »
Biden will be installed as President, rest assured, but a substantial portion of the electorate will never consider him to be duly elected. His presidency is tainted out of the gate, and he will achieve nothing that cannot navigate the angry obstructionist Senate now sitting in his path to governance.

I'm more mixed on this. It depends on what Biden is allowed to do by his Cabinet.

He's in a rather unique situation. Due to his age, exceedingly few people consider him as being likely to run in 2024, heck a LOT of people don't expect him to fulfill the term of office he was elected to.

Meanwhile, the Republicans in Congress are going to be relieved to have the Bully Pulpit taken away from Trump. They can start to return the GOP to the rails without Trump constantly derailing things with his mouth. (Although I wouldn't be surprised to see the MSM giving Trump lots of air time expressly for the purpose of playing up "How the GOP is at war with itself.")

If Biden tries to govern as a moderate, which means ditching much of the platform he ran on, he'll be able to get a lot done... At least so long as the House plays ball. If the House prevents him from governing from the center, the Republicans can potentially take care of that in two years.

But if Biden sticks to the platform he ran on, then yeah, it's going to obstruction central for much of the next 2 years.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #178 on: November 05, 2020, 02:58:09 PM »
I have found only one instance of a credentialed observer being prevented from something they are allowed to do. They were credentialed in a different district, and their name couldn't be found at first.

There has been a lot of complaining about things they are not allowed to do, including looking over the poll watchers shoulder to determine if they think that signatures match. You get to see that they are matching signatures, not second guess their determination that a signature matches.

I'd like to find the full text of the complaint that got thrown out in Michigan, but I don't see anything.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #179 on: November 05, 2020, 03:06:29 PM »
Y-22,

“And your assertation is that hundreds of thousands of Americans (actually only democrats) decided to commit a felony by requesting a ballot in someone else's name and then really, really, hope that the individual decided not to update their voter registration thereby immediately flagging that as a troubled ballot and then authorities then could easily go to their address and arrest the culprit.”

Yes, and not only fraudulent ballot ”requests“, but diverted live ballots intended for move-outs (9% of the population annually), and dead people.

For move outs someone would have to request a ballot, presumably knowing they were moving within the next couple weeks and then not have their mail forwarded to them. A 9% yearly number of people moving is grossly overestimating the number of people who were moving in October and requested a ballot be sent to the address they were moving away from. How many people do you think that is?

Dead people, again something easy to verify is fraudulent after the election. Also requires someone to have died relatively recently and the state to not have procedures to remove them from the voter rolls and for their surviving family to request a ballot in their name in order to vote. I still don't see either of these activities being widespread and I would wager what fraud does happen of this type is an effective wash politically. Neither party could have a mechanism for doing either of these things in a wide spread systematic way that would go unnoticed.

Quote
Further, given the scenario witnessed last Tuesday by designated observers held thirty feet from the “readers”, these “ballots” estimated in ~120,000 tranches, did not even need to be real ballots. They just needed to be machine readable.

At the point that Republican observer interference takes place, the burden of proof for ballot legitimacy shifts to Democrats.

The ballots have to be "real" to be readable by the machines. And again if there is wide spread voter fraud/impersonation going on. It would be detectable after the fact. Take a sample of 2,000 people who cast a ballot and after the election go ask them if they voted. If you get 100 people who will swear they didn't then you have detected a voter fraud issue.

The Democratic observers were kept at the same distance away. With thousands of ballots being sent through the machines at a time the only thing observers can do at any distance away is to make sure each ballot is only sent through the machine once. And 6ft or 30ft you can verify that. If Pennsylvania failed to allow observers at the opening and readying of the ballots then take that up with their republican state legislature.


Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #180 on: November 05, 2020, 04:00:23 PM »
I think that you have the issue reversed; Sean Hannity believes that this election was corrupted due to the very same reasons that I have been pointing to now for weeks. Unsolicited “mail in ballot requests” and “mail in ballots” are an open invitation to numerous varieties of election fraud... especially where we are now looking at “victory” margins of less than two percent.

I've seen no evidence presented that supports this assertion.  Mail in ballots have been used since when?

Mail in ballots that have been used, have generally been used only when they were requested by the voter.  That's an enormous fraud control right there.  If properly done you would then have the signature of the relevant voter to compare to the ballot received, you'd also have the record of the request, which can be verified after the fact as being legitimate if necessary.  Mailing unsolicited ballots has no controls whatsoever, there likely isn't any way - at all - to verify that the voter on the ballot was the one who cast the ballot.  When you do have anecdotal stories of people manipulating the process, it's willful blindness to ignore them against a backdrop of a country that does include people with no ethics, no morality and a complete willingness to abuse any process to the extent of which they can get away with it.

Some states have had an extensive mail in process in place for a while, and they have reasonable controls and processes (for the most part).  However, in states that approved this off the cuff, or worse where local election officials violated  state rules to create their own solutions (TX for example), or where judges imposed changes (PA), protective controls are skipped or missing.  I mean, if a state legislature requires a postal stamp to verify date, a judge ordering acceptance without one or in spite of one is actual voter fraud.  That's before you skip eye witness accounts of manipulation of date stamps by local postal officials, which is voter fraud and election manipulation, or of local election officials opening illegal ballots and deliberately mixing them into the legal ballots to prevent their proper disposition.

And don't even get me started on people having complained for 4 years about Russian election interference through what Mueller ultimately identified was a de minimus ad spend against blatant media lying about Trump and covering up for Biden.

Quote
The ease at which the process is susceptible to fraud does not prove that fraud occurred.  It simply means that there is reason to revise the laws in place.  Claiming that fraud occurred without proof is dangerous and irresponsible.  Sean Hannity is free to present his case in court.  If he has evidence, let him put it forward.

You have some truth here, but you ignore that catching fraud in a secret ballot election is NEVER going to be easy.  Finding proof would generally mean violating the secret ballot itself.  With that background, if a group is doing everything in its power to eliminate controls on fraud, like voter id, signature or notary requirements, that a voter requested a ballot, its pretty solid evidence that either they believe there is fraud and they benefit from that fraud, or they don't care -at all- about whether or not there is fraud and believe they would benefit from it.  I seem to remember a lot of people who had an issue with the possibility that the Trump campaign may have been aware that Russia preferred them even though they didn't collude them, yet when the DNC apparently views making sure fraud would be impossible to detect because they believe any fraud would benefit them (or worse, actively know that fraud is benefiting them), they don't have an issue.

Home team rules.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #181 on: November 05, 2020, 04:23:55 PM »

If properly done you would then have the signature of the relevant voter to compare to the ballot received, you'd also have the record of the request, which can be verified after the fact as being legitimate if necessary.  Mailing unsolicited ballots has no controls whatsoever, there likely isn't any way - at all - to verify that the voter on the ballot was the one who cast the ballot.

The fact that leaving the garage door open is stupid does not prove that theft occurred.  I can buy that mailing unsolicited ballots may present problems and opportunity for fraud.  But it is not evidence that fraud occurred.  There's nothing.  If a system has too many loopholes, I support closing them. 

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When you do have anecdotal stories of people manipulating the process, it's willful blindness to ignore them against a backdrop of a country that does include people with no ethics, no morality and a complete willingness to abuse any process to the extent of which they can get away with it.

I got anecdotal stories about people seeing Elvis, Bigfoot, and the Lizardman too. 


DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #182 on: November 05, 2020, 05:15:51 PM »
Lizardmen, surely?

So, Georgia - there are still 47,000 votes to be counted, and Trump's lead stands at 9,000 now.  There are additionally military ballots that may still show up, provisional ballots which may count, and rejected ballots that could be cured (by EOD tomorrow).

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In Georgia, more than 47,000 outstanding mail ballots that have been returned still need to be counted as of 2:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, the state secretary of state’s office said.

That number, however, is very likely not the full number of ballots that remain to be counted. Military and overseas ballots have until Friday to come in. Nearly 9,000 of those ballots were sent out and not returned yet. It’s possible they could all come back or none will.

The 47, 277 figure also doesn’t include provisional ballots — which voters were asked to cast if they, for example, forgot their ID or went to the wrong polling place, WABE’s Emma Hurt reports.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #183 on: November 05, 2020, 05:28:59 PM »
And one has to wonder whether Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is slow walking the announcement process in hopes he doesn't get pegged as the guy who announced Trump's loss.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #184 on: November 05, 2020, 05:37:56 PM »
And one has to wonder whether Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is slow walking the announcement process in hopes he doesn't get pegged as the guy who announced Trump's loss.

I was thinking the same thing regarding the networks moving slowly to announce the same thing.  I guess it's not official, but it seems the writing is on the wall.  Better to be slow than fast on this, I guess. 

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #185 on: November 05, 2020, 06:31:33 PM »
Let me put it this way.  Let's say that I have a garage that I keep open.  One day I say "My neighbors are stealing from my garage".  Now, my garage is vulnerable to theft, this is true.  But when the cops show up, the first thing they're going to want to know is what is missing.  Where is the evidence that something was stolen?  Is there video?  What makes me suspect my neighbors?

To make it more "equivalent" let's say you live primarily at your vacation home, and you let your 3 kids each run an e-bay business out of the open garage of your main house in another state.  Each of your kids has hundreds of customers in and out of the garage to pick up packages sometimes unmonitored.  You also let 2 high school friends use the space for storage and to meet with clients, including walk-ins, for their own businesses in what is at times a very busy garage.

You've never seen your neighbor actually stealing anything.  You're not even aware of what's actually supposed to be in the garage at any time.  However, you do frequently see your neighbor on your existing security cameras approaching the side of your garage, where you happen to know there's a hole that opens into the inside of the garage but where you can't see the hole or the inside of the garage (your kids and their customers heavily object to a camera inside the garage.  Your neighbor walks over upright, and routinely walks back after 5-15 minutes hunched over. 

None of the businesses inside can identify anything stolen, but there are frequently comments on their web pages from customers that claim items they ordered were not there when they go to pick them up.  Everyone that uses the garage just accepts that sometimes an item is going to missing or be misplaced with that many people in the garage, and just accepts it as a cost of doing business and provides refunds or replacements.

There's never going to be proof in that situation, which has been designed with a massive flaw, that your neighbor is stealing  It could be that nothing really was stolen only misplaced or taken by mistake.  It could be that stuff was stolen and it was customers or even your kids doing it.  It could be that the customers got their products and lied about it to get refunds as well.  Or it could be that your neighbor is judicially taking things here or there.

What we know for sure is you created a system where it's not only trivially easy to engage in theft, its virtually impossible to get caught. 

What would you think, if you decided to add a camera that did point into the garage and your neighbor got the town to remove the camera by arguing that any the camera position that would show the inside of the garage or the hole directly, was illegally in a space that violated town zoning ordinances.  When you tried putting the camera inside, you found that your kids, your friends and occasionally their clients frequently turned it off, blocked it, intentionally or by accident, or even erased the recordings.  When you go to have the hole fixed, the neighbor enjoins you from having the work done by proving it will violate town noise and zoning ordinances to fix it.  When you hire someone to watch the area, the neighbor enjoins your security guard from staying on the property at night (which is when he makes his trips to the wall) because it violates town ordinances that prevent any commercial activity after dark, including a paid guard patrolling.

When no matter what reasonable plan you have to prevent the hole in the wall from being a point through which theft can occur or to monitor it, there's always a reason that it's completely unacceptable and prevented mostly by the neighbor in question.

How much of this has to occur before you begin to think there's another motive behind your neighbor obstructing every action to fix the flaw?  Sure you can't prove it, but you created a system designed with an enormous flaw, have suspicious activity and have an active program by the neighbor to prevent closing the flaw, which you'd be a fool to ignore. 

That's how vulnerable voting seems to me. 

We have tens of thousands of material polling sites, and millions of points of custody for voting before you even consider how much that has been expanded by the increase in mailed votes.  Many of those points of custody are hidden from observation by even those responsible for the election, heck even certain polling places have at times been so overwhelming controlled by one party that there isn't even an observer from the other side. 

Every push to change the rules by the DNC is to increase the time involved (meaning a system that relies heavily on volunteer workers becomes even more strained in efforts to provide security and confidence) and to increase the number of points of custody that are unmonitored and to lower any ability to close the flaws inherent in the system.  I mean honestly, it's illegal to offer anything of value for a vote, yet it's open "secret" that party operatives provide incentives to get people onto voting buses and get them to vote the way they want.  That's literal criminal voting interference and I suspect it moves the needle for no one.

When you consider there are over 600,000 postal employees the overwhelming majority of whom are in the chain of custody of votes often on a completely unmonitored basis, where any one of them can influence the process (and a couple were caught actually doing) by discarding votes, voting votes that weren't picked up, handing them over to other people to vote, post marking them illegally, failing to post mark them legally.  Have you ever worked ANYWHERE with more than 20 employees where there wasn't someone that you knew would undermine other employees, sabotage them or otherwise do improper actions or take shortcuts.  Have you ever worked someplace where there isn't a camera on the employee fridge and no lunch or snack was ever stolen? 

There's no chance at all, that there wasn't fraud involved, the only real argument is the claim that even though we have ZERO ways to accurately determine the fraud rate, it's not "material."  What's the basis for that claim?  Pretty much just wishing it's true.

We have a vulnerable system.  I get pretending its not vulnerable to give the country confidence in it, but that can't last when there are so many attacks on any reasonable attempts to make sure its secure.

noel c.

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #186 on: November 05, 2020, 06:40:12 PM »
Y-22,

“A 9% yearly number of people moving is grossly overestimating the number of people who were moving in October and requested a ballot be sent to the address they were moving away from. How many people do you think that is?”

I moved, within the same Utah zip code, last April. No “mail-in” ballot was sent to me at my current address despite timely reregistration. A new ballot was issued to me in person at my polling station. Would that ballot have been issued if someone submitted the unsolicited ballot linked to me in a dated voter role?

You believe that 9%/year average address change is too high for the month of October. Let’s cut that number in half to isolate Democrats. Cut it in half again to separate ethical Democrats. Cut that in half again to sift out cowards. There still remains 1.12%, which is enough to tip the scale in some of these counties.

“Dead people, again something easy to verify is fraudulent after the election. Also requires someone to have died relatively recently and the state to not have procedures to remove them from the voter rolls and for their surviving family to request a ballot in their name in order to vote. I still don't see either of these activities being widespread and I would wager what fraud does happen of this type is an effective wash politically. Neither party could have a mechanism for doing either of these things in a wide spread systematic way that would go unnoticed.”

No, the issuance of a ballot does not uniformly require a “request”. The required percentages are low, and cumulative with other fraudulent methods. The “mechanism” is pretty simple; individual initiative can double the voting power of a living family member who is motivated to “make a difference”, or rationalize that “this is what mom would have wanted”.

“The ballots have to be ‘real’ to be readable by the machines.“

Not Utah ballots, I could make them.

“And again if there is wide spread voter fraud/impersonation going on. It would be detectable after the fact. Take a sample of 2,000 people who cast a ballot and after the election go ask them if they voted. If you get 100 people who will swear they didn't then you have detected a voter fraud issue.”

A better method is to do a recount provided the signed envelopes were also saved. I think we will see a lot of that in the coming months.

“The Democratic observers were kept at the same distance away. With thousands of ballots being sent through the machines at a time the only thing observers can do at any distance away is to make sure each ballot is only sent through the machine once. And 6ft or 30ft you can verify that. If Pennsylvania failed to allow observers at the opening and readying of the ballots then take that up with their republican state legislature.”

It doesn’t matter if Democratic observers were kept at the same distance. It only matters who the ballots were supplied by. Possibly Democrats have become more ethical since the 1960 presidential election, but I doubt it. Your standards for presidential office are as low as anyone who I have ever discussed the issue with. Would you really care if Biden came to office fraudulently?

Grant,

“The fact that leaving the garage door open is stupid does not prove that theft occurred.“

True, but your analogy breaks down on precisely the crux of why *voluntarily* leaving the garage door open is “stupid”. There are few Republicans that think leaving the door open to voter fraud is a good idea, as a cursory reading of conservative comments on this thread illustrate.

”I can buy that mailing unsolicited ballots may present problems and opportunity for fraud.  But it is not evidence that fraud occurred.”

... And, strictly speaking, if I dump a bag of cash from a helicopter into Manhattan at lunch hour, and the streets are mysteriously spotless three minutes later, it is not “proof” that some people ended up with a free lunch. The question becomes; how oblivious do you have to be to believe otherwise?

“There's nothing.  If a system has too many loopholes, I support closing them.”

How about never promoting “loopholes” to begin with?
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 06:45:51 PM by noel c. »

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #187 on: November 05, 2020, 07:04:21 PM »
Quote
There's never going to be proof in that situation, which has been designed with a massive flaw, that your neighbor is stealing  It could be that nothing really was stolen only misplaced or taken by mistake.  It could be that stuff was stolen and it was customers or even your kids doing it.  It could be that the customers got their products and lied about it to get refunds as well.  Or it could be that your neighbor is judicially taking things here or there.

What we know for sure is you created a system where it's not only trivially easy to engage in theft, its virtually impossible to get caught.

That's some convoluted stuff right there, Serati.  But nothing changed.  The point was already made earlier with the idea that the system was vulnerable.  If the system is vulnerable, then fix it.  If you have proof find a lawyer and file a suit. 

Quote
We have a vulnerable system.  I get pretending its not vulnerable to give the country confidence in it, but that can't last when there are so many attacks on any reasonable attempts to make sure its secure.

Vulnerable to what level of fraud? 

1 fraudulent vote?
10?
100?

How many fraudulent votes would it take to sway the presidential election in Nevada?  There is currently a gap of roughly 12,000 votes?  Are you suggesting that there were 12 THOUSAND fraudulent votes made in Nevada this election?  12 THOUSAND? 

Who was capable of creating 12 thousand fraudulent votes?  Were there 12,000 democrats that each made one fraudulent vote, or just one guy named Soros? 

How many would have been needed in Wisconsin?  20 Thousand?  Were the same people behind all those fraudulent votes too, or was it a different group of swamp people?  The post office?  Or Chase Manhattan? 

How about Michigan?  150 thousand fraudulent votes?  Well that's got to be Chase Manhattan or Mitt Romney behind that one.  No other answer. 

There is currently a 60,000 vote gap between Trump and Biden in Pennsylvania. You figure that the dems are going to rustle up an extra 60,000 fraudulent votes? 

So altogether, your neighbors stealing the stuff out of your garage have stolen 242 THOUSAND votes so far.  But you didn't catch them on camera.  Because the truck they were using was on loan from Wonder Woman.  A quarter of a million votes were fraudulent this year. That's one hell of an accusation.  I'll let Karl Rove speak for me:

Quote
There are suspicious partisans across the spectrum who believe widespread election fraud is possible. Some hanky-panky always goes on, and there are already reports of poll watchers in Philadelphia not being allowed to do their jobs. But stealing hundreds of thousands of votes would require a conspiracy on the scale of a James Bond movie. That isn’t going to happen.

There ya go.  I'll trust Karl Rove, who has worked in elections for quite a while.  I'll trust other people.  I think you're making mountains out of molehills and are doing some really neat mental gymnastics while trying to prove your point. 

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #188 on: November 05, 2020, 07:07:56 PM »
I moved, within the same Utah zip code, last April. No “mail-in” ballot was sent to me at my current address despite timely reregistration. A new ballot was issued to me in person at my polling station. Would that ballot have been issued if someone submitted the unsolicited ballot linked to me in a dated voter role?

Of course.  Did you see any indication on the voter role in respect of those who'd already voted with mail in votes?  I didn't.  When you consider that those voter logs are maintained in thousands of separate hard copies, it's certainly possible that no one is adequately checking them to discard votes by the same voter already received in the mail.  Is it really possible that no one voted twice or even that there was not any case of an error in recording a vote that made it appear so?

I mean think about, you can't even verify whether a voter voted until after the in-person voting records are compiled and available, which means any mail-in vote separated from it's envelope prior to a point hours after close of polls almost certainly could not have been properly verified.  Any ballot opened without observers able to see the signature match (which is virtually all of them) is a fraud risk.

I read in some states you should shred your mailed ballot if you decide to vote in person, but very little about which vote counts if you vote in person and a mail in ballot is located.  Do they just discard the mailed ballot?  Those ballots would be evidence of potential voter fraud.  Seen any reports on the number of mail in ballots rejected because the voter voted in person (as some were advised where there was a risk their mailed ballot wouldn't be received in time).  Pretty sure I read in NJ the governor was advocating to discard the in-person vote in that situation.

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“And again if there is wide spread voter fraud/impersonation going on. It would be detectable after the fact. Take a sample of 2,000 people who cast a ballot and after the election go ask them if they voted. If you get 100 people who will swear they didn't then you have detected a voter fraud issue.”

A better method is to do a recount provided the signed envelopes were also saved. I think we will see a lot of that in the coming months.

First the evidence of a sample of 2000 people would not just be evidence of voter fraud, it would be evidence of a stolen election and very likely there would be absolutely no recourse.  There's no way for instance, Biden would be removed in March if an exhaustive analysis detemines say an 85% probability that he won as a result of voter fraud.

Not sure they actually keep the approved ballot connected to the envelope (which has voter identification information on it), do you have knowledge they do?

I think it's interesting too, that opportunities for fraud and the benefits of it, generally support Democrats.  While it's true that Republicans are spread out with a larger number of polling locations, it's rarely true that they have the kind of overwhelming control of those locations that is absolutely common in Democratic polling locations, which also happen to have the kind of enormous number of votes that adding material numbers of votes, numbers that can flip an election, shows up as so statisticlally improbable that it becomes evidence of fraud.  The DNC is almost uniformly the beneficiary of voter fraud and almost uniformly in control of the largest voting areas where its both easier to conduct the fraud and easier to hide it from the kind of statistical analysis that is the only way you could pick it out in a secret ballot system.  When you add in their overwhelming opposition to any kind of fraud controls it's an interesting set of facts.

kidv

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #189 on: November 05, 2020, 07:17:26 PM »
Jake Tapper just commented on President Trump's speech at 7:00 pm ET on November 5 that I found insightful.

Mr. Tapper stated that Mr. Trump listed a set of Republican accomplishments such as not losing the senate, not losing any house seats, winning Florida, Iowa and other states.

Mr. Tapper then noted that Mr. Trump would have us believe that there is a vast conspiracy to submit sufficient fraudulent votes to defeat Donald J. Trump but allow all the republicans to win in every other instance that Mr. Trump cited. 

NobleHunter

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #190 on: November 05, 2020, 07:53:24 PM »
It reminds me of the Conservative Party after the last Canadian election. They trialed the idea of voter fraud but quickly shut up. I suspect it was because someone pointed out that voter fraud would be a lot easier in political heartlands, such as Alberta were the Conservatives ran up record-breaking number of votes to get their consolation price of a plurality of the popular vote.

If voter fraud is as easy as purported then it's simple explanation of why Trump beat the polls so consistently. Especially since the only reason Biden is currently winning is his surprise showing in Arizona. There is as much evidence for Trump cheating in Florida and Texas as there is for Biden cheating in Georgia and Pennsylvania, so both theories are valid.

noel c.

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #191 on: November 05, 2020, 08:09:37 PM »
Serati,

“Not sure they actually keep the approved ballot connected to the envelope (which has voter identification information on it), do you have knowledge they do?”

No, I am not certain that envelopes, and ballots, are kept together following a count in Utah. It makes sense that they should be, and the poll workers had zero difficulty identifying me to reissue a ballot, but I am making an optimist assumption that computer ballot issuance records correlate with records of a cast vote. Interestingly, even when we vote in person, the ballot is deposited into a collection box with a poll-worker present to verify the presence of an envelope signature. Hopefully, he would also object to a deposit of multiple ballots by a single individual. I should have asked.

Grant,

“How many fraudulent votes would it take to sway the presidential election in Nevada?  There is currently a gap of roughly 12,000 votes?  Are you suggesting that there were 12 THOUSAND fraudulent votes made in Nevada this election?  12 THOUSAND?”

Yes. Those numbers are obtainable under current circumstances, and it does not even require an “organizer” to accomplish. Ill conceived voting laws alone can induce that kind of distortion of vote tallies in a highly divided electorate. Even Biden thinks so . :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520532-biden-the-only-way-ill-lose-is-through-chicanery-at-polling-places%3famp
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 08:12:07 PM by noel c. »

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #192 on: November 05, 2020, 08:13:57 PM »
Yes. Those numbers are obtainable under current circumstances, and it does not even require an “organizer” to accomplish. Ill conceived voting laws alone can induce that kind of distortion of vote tallies in a highly divided electorate. Even Biden thinks so . :

Biden's wrong.  There is nothing to support this.  It's conspiracy theory level stuff. 

noel c.

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #193 on: November 05, 2020, 08:19:47 PM »
Kidv,

“Mr. Tapper then noted that Mr. Trump would have us believe that there is a vast conspiracy to submit sufficient fraudulent votes to defeat Donald J. Trump but allow all the republicans to win in every other instance that Mr. Trump cited.”

Non sequitur.

Grant,

“Biden's wrong.  There is nothing to support this.  It's conspiracy theory level stuff.”

My argument does not necessitate “conspiracy”, only human nature.

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #194 on: November 05, 2020, 08:22:35 PM »
Pack it up and go home, everyone.

Humans undeniably have human nature, therefore Noel has won the argument.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #195 on: November 05, 2020, 08:39:09 PM »
Especially since the only reason Biden is currently winning is his surprise showing in Arizona.
Biden's current vote margin (2.0%) is slightly less than his projected margin (2.6% based on 538's final forecast).

So Biden is actually slightly underperforming in Arizona - which makes his current lead not a surprise.

NobleHunter

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #196 on: November 05, 2020, 08:40:21 PM »
Biden's current vote margin (2.0%) is slightly less than his projected margin (based on 538's forecast).

So Biden is actually slightly underperforming in Arizona - which makes his current lead not a surprise.

Neat.

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #197 on: November 05, 2020, 08:42:04 PM »
Yes. Those numbers are obtainable under current circumstances, and it does not even require an “organizer” to accomplish. Ill conceived voting laws alone can induce that kind of distortion of vote tallies in a highly divided electorate. Even Biden thinks so . :

Biden's wrong.  There is nothing to support this.  It's conspiracy theory level stuff.
It's weird that over-voting fraud is being conflated with the risk of the chicanery involved in throwing out legally cast votes to which Biden was referring. It's basically the exact opposite thing.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #198 on: November 05, 2020, 09:46:51 PM »
Arizona is down to 46,000 votes.
Georgia is down to 12,500 votes.
Pennsylvania is down to 34,000 votes.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #199 on: November 05, 2020, 09:52:42 PM »
And the sad thing is this election is going to come down to about 100,000 votes spread across 4 states when 4,000,000 more people voted for Biden than Trump. And that is probably going to be 4.5 to 5 million by the time all the votes are counted in California and New York.