Author Topic: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency  (Read 8432 times)

cherrypoptart

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Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« on: November 04, 2020, 11:21:36 PM »
These threads are always fun to come back to a few years later to see how what the politicians said they would do matches up to what they actually tried to do and then what they really accomplished. Obama's promises about healthcare are a good example, one with no individual mandate and average costs coming down twenty-five hundred dollars per family compared to what actually happened. So what is Biden promising to do, will he do it, and will it work as intended?

Will he succeed in getting the filthy rich to pay more in taxes and will his tax policies end up resulting in more money to the Treasury? Will he get the assault weapons ban he wants? Is our healthcare system going to be substantially improved and can he really "shutdown the virus" like he said? Will there be less pollution and will climate change slow down because of his administration? I wonder about all of that and a lot more. Just like with Obama, the good thing is that we get to see if these people can deliver on their promises. When they fail like Obama did miserably, that sets up the other side for a good chance at taking over for a while the way Trump did and may yet do again.

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2020, 11:28:39 PM »
I've said it elsewhere, but I'll say it again - Biden pardons Trump.  (maybe that's aspirational, but it would be huge)

Mynnion

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2020, 07:14:11 AM »
Pardon Trump for what?  I won't be surprised if Trump isn't indicted in New York but Biden has no power to pardon state crimes.  I guess it is possible that there are ongoing Federal investigations occurring into Trump but I doubt they will reach the conviction point.

With Biden I see a pull back of some of Trumps actions but he is not really a liberal and will be forced to work with a GOP Senate.  Since I doubt he will end up being a two term president he doesn't even need to work that hard to keep DEM support.

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2020, 07:43:48 AM »
Ford's pardon of Nixon was also preemptive, for crimes that Nixon "might have" committed, and yes, it would only affect Federal crimes.

There is every chance that some will want to see Trump charged with obstruction of justice, among other crimes; this would put an unequivocal end to that.

The country needs rapprochement; that would be a powerful first step.

Grant

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2020, 08:49:02 AM »
Will he succeed in getting the filthy rich to pay more in taxes and will his tax policies end up resulting in more money to the Treasury? Will he get the assault weapons ban he wants? Is our healthcare system going to be substantially improved and can he really "shutdown the virus" like he said? Will there be less pollution and will climate change slow down because of his administration? I wonder about all of that and a lot more. Just like with Obama, the good thing is that we get to see if these people can deliver on their promises. When they fail like Obama did miserably, that sets up the other side for a good chance at taking over for a while the way Trump did and may yet do again.

Any tax hike is going to have to get through the Republican Senate.  I don't know how that would work.  I honestly don't think the administration will push too hard because of the tone they are supposedly going to be setting.  Easier to let the Democrats in Congress but heads with the Republican Senate and try to broker a deal.  It would make the admin look good.  I honestly don't know exactly how the Biden admin is going to play things. 

Assault weapons ban?  Probably not.  Republican Senate.  I doubt it will be as big a deal as it was previously.  Maybe the Democratic House makes noise and passes bills, Biden says he would sign it and it is a good deal, Senate turns it down.  It will be just another political football.  But I don't think that the admin will really care.  It's just a way for them to look good to their voters. 

Healthcare system?  If they can come up with something that Republicans like.  Maybe.  Probably not.  Same as assault weapons.  Democrats are going to start looking forward to the next election and how to attack the Republicans.  Healthcare will become another football. 

I expect there to be more of a single voice within government on coronavirus.  Maybe better federal coordination.  But by the time Biden comes along, vaccines should be a month to 6 months away.  He's going to benefit from that.  The question remains who would remain the contrarian voice in government when it comes to coronavirus.  Maybe some Republican Congressmen and Senators.  Maybe Ted Cruz sees his opportunity to get on TV more.  Certainly Rand Paul.   ::)   Sorry I just upchucked a little. 

Climate change, reducing the rise of the ocean?  No.  Paris Accords will come back but whatever.  Is he going to push nuclear power?  Probably not.  So no. 

The bigger questions to me is how things are going to shake out with NATO, the mid-east, China, the Norks, Iran, etc, and most importantly Russia.  I expect things to improve, though this is all from one's pov.  Some Trumpists will not see these things as improvements.  I certainly don't expect Biden to be aggressive on military use.  His track record on it is abysmal. 

oldbrian

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2020, 08:49:33 AM »
I predict Biden (if he wins) will accomplish nothing.
McConnell will openly announce that since the election was (rigged, stolen, fixed, whatever Trump eventually settles on as an explanation) the Senate will stonewall everything; nothing will get passed.

Grant

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2020, 08:54:48 AM »
I predict Biden (if he wins) will accomplish nothing.
McConnell will openly announce that since the election was (rigged, stolen, fixed, whatever Trump eventually settles on as an explanation) the Senate will stonewall everything; nothing will get passed.

That sounds like a great way for the Republicans to lose the Senate and elect Harris in 2024. 

oldbrian

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2020, 08:57:47 AM »
It also sounds like a great way for Trump to run again in 2024.  Or one of his kids, riding the wave of redneck righteous fury.

Grant

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2020, 09:08:38 AM »
It also sounds like a great way for Trump to run again in 2024.  Or one of his kids, riding the wave of redneck righteous fury.

I don't know you well enough to know if you are being humorous or insulting.   To blame the rise of Trump and Trumpism on "righteous redneck fury" is incorrect and doesn't help matters.  Unless you can walk into a bar in Alabama and get away with blaming things on "redneck fury", I don't think it's a good idea to do it anywhere. 

If the Republican Senate becomes fully obstructionist it will not win votes.  To say it would is ridiculous. 

I rate this entire post as 1/10.   

yossarian22c

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2020, 09:19:33 AM »
The republicans in the senate went full obstructionist with 40/41 senators during Obama's first term. What makes you think they'll do anything different for Biden? I fully expect they suddenly remember they care deeply about the deficit. As a result they will demand cuts to government across the board to pay for Trump's tax cuts. They will refuse to pass any future covid related stimulus and we'll see a recession as states and local governments start to lay off police, teachers, and other government workers adding to the economic down turn. They will refuse generous unemployment benefits making that down turn even more severe. And we'll hear all the time about the massive deficit that is the result of their policies the last 3 years and blame it all on democrats.

oldbrian

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2020, 09:37:47 AM »
Grant:
Quote
If the Republican Senate becomes fully obstructionist it will not win votes.  To say it would is ridiculous. 

not in 2022.  But if the senate swings (D) because of it, I could easily see the far right stoking up fury of the base to correct the injustice in '24.
I'm not saying that IS the plan, but it could certainly work. 

And I say 'righteous' because of the Trumpians I am surrounded by.  That seems to be the baseline emotion driving them.  I would also use righteous to describe the base emotion of Social Justice Warriors (TM).

I say 'redneck' because that is an easy tag that I believe everyone understands to describe the group of people I am talking about.

Grant

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2020, 09:39:53 AM »
The republicans in the senate went full obstructionist with 40/41 senators during Obama's first term. What makes you think they'll do anything different for Biden?

First, what makes you say that the Republicans in Congress were fully obstructionist during the 111th Congress?  Just what percentage of acts passed by the 111th Congress was opposed by all Republicans?   

Secondly, since the Democrats had a supermajority, I imagine that they took that opportunity to pass much legislation that they knew Republicans would oppose.  What else should the Republicans have done?  Suddenly agree?  Start not being Republicans? 

Finally, the situation in 2009 is completely different than the one in 2021, wouldn't you agree? In 2009 the Democrats had a supermajority.  They didn't need Republicans for anything.  This time they do. 

Quote
As a result they will demand cuts to government across the board to pay for Trump's tax cuts.


That would be in keeping with Republican principles.  I agree that these principles have disappeared rather suddenly while L'Orange has been President. 

Quote
They will refuse to pass any future covid related stimulus and we'll see a recession as states and local governments start to lay off police, teachers, and other government workers adding to the economic down turn. They will refuse generous unemployment benefits making that down turn even more severe.

That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.  I'm sure Republicans in Congress will want to pass future covid relief stimulus, as long as it meets certain criteria.  To refuse stimulus outright would be a great way to lose the Senate. 

Quote
And we'll hear all the time about the massive deficit that is the result of their policies the last 3 years and blame it all on democrats.

Probably.  That's what happens when you win the Presidency.  You'll get blamed for everything. 


DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2020, 10:07:53 AM »
Secondly, since the Democrats had a supermajority, I imagine that they took that opportunity to pass much legislation that they knew Republicans would oppose.  What else should the Republicans have done?  Suddenly agree?  Start not being Republicans?
I am pretty sure that, notwithstanding what some die hards might say, the Democrats gave at the very least lip service to consensus, instead of actually using the short-lived supermajority to advance very progressive projects.  The ACA is a mishmash of just such compromises, instead of going full single payer.  And the ACA, even being a compromise, sucked up a lot of the oxygen available for other legislative actions over the first two years.

McConnell did promise to make Obama a single-term president, and I think it would be silly to pretend that they did not do everything they could to make it so, and yes, that involved being obstructive.

I guess we'll see how many court openings remain un-filled over the next couple of years...

yossarian22c

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2020, 10:12:53 AM »
The republicans in the senate went full obstructionist with 40/41 senators during Obama's first term. What makes you think they'll do anything different for Biden?

First, what makes you say that the Republicans in Congress were fully obstructionist during the 111th Congress?  Just what percentage of acts passed by the 111th Congress was opposed by all Republicans?   

Secondly, since the Democrats had a supermajority, I imagine that they took that opportunity to pass much legislation that they knew Republicans would oppose.  What else should the Republicans have done?  Suddenly agree?  Start not being Republicans? 

The democrats had a supermajority for about 3 months. From the time Franken was seated about six months after the election due to an extremely long recount and court cases until the time Kennedy died. Much of that time it was difficult for them to get a full 60 senators on the floor due to Kennedy's health. So the ACA was the one issue they pushed.

Grant

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2020, 10:27:25 AM »
McConnell did promise to make Obama a single-term president, and I think it would be silly to pretend that they did not do everything they could to make it so, and yes, that involved being obstructive.

I'm looking at a long list of acts passed by the 111th Congress.  Often unanimously by the Senate.  I imagine that naming post offices really doesn't count, but it's there.  Plenty of other legislation too. 

I personally do not consider Republicans voting in line with Republican principles to be considered "obstructionist".  They're there to fight for Republican and conservative principles.  That includes some compromise, because politics, but it takes two to tango. 

I see that Barrack Obama appointed two Supreme Court Justices during the 111th Congress.  Five Republican Senators voted to confirm Kagan.  25 Republican Senators voted for Sotomayor.  I hardly call this obstruction. 

I see over 300 federal judges appointed by Obama.  Many times with votes of 95-0 or 100-0.  I hardly call this obstructionism. 

TheDrake

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2020, 11:13:43 AM »
McConnell did promise to make Obama a single-term president, and I think it would be silly to pretend that they did not do everything they could to make it so, and yes, that involved being obstructive.

I'm looking at a long list of acts passed by the 111th Congress.  Often unanimously by the Senate.  I imagine that naming post offices really doesn't count, but it's there.  Plenty of other legislation too. 

I personally do not consider Republicans voting in line with Republican principles to be considered "obstructionist".  They're there to fight for Republican and conservative principles.  That includes some compromise, because politics, but it takes two to tango. 

I see that Barrack Obama appointed two Supreme Court Justices during the 111th Congress.  Five Republican Senators voted to confirm Kagan.  25 Republican Senators voted for Sotomayor.  I hardly call this obstruction. 

I see over 300 federal judges appointed by Obama.  Many times with votes of 95-0 or 100-0.  I hardly call this obstructionism.

It was in the final two years that things got serious, as Republicans saw the opportunity to take the White House and get their own judges instead. The eight year totals were not that far off, but the final two of those were about a third of historical precedent.

brookings article

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2020, 02:27:32 PM »
I predict Biden (if he wins) will accomplish nothing.
McConnell will openly announce that since the election was (rigged, stolen, fixed, whatever Trump eventually settles on as an explanation) the Senate will stonewall everything; nothing will get passed.

Given the past working relationship Biden and McConnel had when they were both in the Senate, they could surprise us all.

The wildcard in all of this is Biden's mental health. In some respects, I wouldn't be surprised to learn at some point that Kamala will have spent most of her time as VP with a letter to Congress invoking the 25th Amendment ready to go at a moments notice should Biden start doing anything she doesn't approve of.

As such, unless Biden pulls off some real surprises by populating a majority of his cabinet with some flavor of conservatives/moderates to forestall that, he'll spend his term of office on a short leash being held by his VP. PotUS in name only.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2020, 04:51:33 PM »
PINO Biden. I was just about to ask about predictions on Biden even serving out his first term. I'm going to go on the record as guessing no, he won't. If he does he'll be sequestered like he was for much of the campaign and only brought out for show on his good days, but I doubt he will even be able to do that much as time goes on. I think people know they were voting for Harris for President though. There was even a funny political ad about a trick or treater in a Biden mask who Spoiler Alert was actually Harris. After she grabbed all the candy the punchline was to know who you are really voting for and don't get tricked.

Grant

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2020, 05:44:01 PM »
PINO Biden. I was just about to ask about predictions on Biden even serving out his first term. I'm going to go on the record as guessing no, he won't. If he does he'll be sequestered like he was for much of the campaign and only brought out for show on his good days, but I doubt he will even be able to do that much as time goes on. I think people know they were voting for Harris for President though. There was even a funny political ad about a trick or treater in a Biden mask who Spoiler Alert was actually Harris. After she grabbed all the candy the punchline was to know who you are really voting for and don't get tricked.

Lawd.

Biden was sequestered for most of the campaign, not due to health, but due to the fact that ; 1) there was a pandemic going on, and 2) Biden is famous for gaffes and his campaign wisely saw that the best way to victory was for Biden to say as little as possible and let Trump dig his own grave with his big mouth.  The anti-Trump.  No twitter nonsense. 

People were indeed voting for Biden and not Harris.  Harris sucked during the primaries.  If people were just voting for Harris, Biden wouldn't have won.  Your evidence seems to be a story about a holloween costume. 

This is nonsense.  I think the final stage of the breakdown is starting. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2020, 05:49:42 PM »
People were indeed voting for Biden and not Harris.  Harris sucked during the primaries.  If people were just voting for Harris, Biden wouldn't have won.  Your evidence seems to be a story about a holloween costume.

They weren't even doing that. At one point CNN was showing exit polling that indicated over 30% of the Biden vote was a vote against Trump.

Which is promising for the Republicans should both of the Currently Republican Senate Seats end up going to a runoff election once the vote count completes. If Biden has been confirmed as the winner, the motivation for Democrats and more moderate voters to go out and vote Democrat "to fight Trump" is gone. While on the Republican side, the motivation to get out and vote to "fight Democrat control of Congress" will be huge. So how the at least 1 runoff race will play out will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2020, 05:52:05 PM »
This is nonsense.  I think the final stage of the breakdown is starting.

The breakdown only become critical if the Democrats pack the courts and add states to pack the Senate as well.

Otherwise, the most we'll probably see in the next 6 months or so is AntiFa acting out.

They're still rioting in Portland among other locations.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/05/portland-protests-election-2020-434221

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2020, 05:53:07 PM »
Yeah... we've seen Biden speak (yes, speak as well as give speeches) he's been on the debate stage with Trump twice, and although not the most gifted orator in the world, he is quite clearly not suffering from dementia, he puts together sentences that don't sound like they were futzed together by a 4th grader, and he can discuss policy without sounding, well, like Trump.

One can dislike the man, or his policies; but making statements about his dementia as if this is some kind of agreed-upon fact just makes people look purposefully duplicitous or, frankly, dumb.

DJQuag

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2020, 05:56:50 PM »
Shout out to Martha McSally who somehow managed to fill both of her state's Senatorial seats and promptly turned them over to the opposition party.

Can we move her to Georgia and let her work her magic? Is that allowed? /s

DJQuag

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2020, 06:08:37 PM »
Christ.

I am sick and tired of hearing people complaining about "new states." The process for that is perfectly outlined in the friggen Constitution and it is what it is. If the process goes through then it's done.

You know the last time people started getting real shirty about new states being added and their Senatorial impact? Pretty sure it was when people were worried about Northern anti-slavery states outweighing Southern pro-slavery states. The South got real upset. First we had to have some compromise they made me memorise in high school and I forgot a week later then we had a civil war over it.

Fact is the Senate is proportioned precisely to allow smaller states to have bigger impact and I think it's pretty rich listening to people who have defended and traded on that for what are likely literal decades get their panties in a bunch because they're assuming the new states just wouldn't think like they do.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2020, 06:37:36 PM »
Fact is the Senate is proportioned precisely to allow smaller states to have bigger impact and I think it's pretty rich listening to people who have defended and traded on that for what are likely literal decades get their panties in a bunch because they're assuming the new states just wouldn't think like they do.

Three issues:
1) Washington DC itself is a special case that likely required a constitutional amendment to make work as a state in its own right. Reverting it to Maryland on the other hand has existing precedent(Arlington, VA used to be part of Washington D.C.) and doesn't require constitutional amendments to address. Well, actually I guess it still would because what remained of Washington D.C. Population: PotUS and the VP + family having 3 electoral college votes because of an amendment...

2) Puerto Rico has failed to meet the entry requirements that were placed in regards to Hawaii, Alaska, and the Philippines -- 50% of eligible voters must approve the measure. They didn't even get 50% of eligible voters to vote. (The Philippines opted to become independent)

3) Post reconstruction era admission of states has not been done for the purpose of gaining a political advantage. And in the event that a perceived political advantage did exist, efforts were made to offset that, by admitting states in pairs--which is part of the story for Alaska(then Democrat favored) and Hawaii(then Republican favored).

This also doesn't get into the "fun" to be had in regards to house seat apportionment questions in scenario where they're likely admitted as states after the 2020 House Seat apportionments have been assigned. by the 2010 census, PR would be entitled to 5 representatives, assuming that held in the 2020 census, do they bump the house up to 441 seats(5 for PR, 1 for DC -- what they did for Alaska and Hawaii after their 1959 admission), or do they remove 6 house seats from circulation and reassign it (triggering more re-districting for the states impacted) before the 2022 or 2024 election?

I'm all for permanently increasing the size of the House, but the methodology involved in this case is a bit suspect especially if they're "temporary" until after the 2030 census.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2020, 06:46:13 PM by TheDeamon »

DJQuag

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2020, 06:47:21 PM »
What were the entry "requirements" for, let's say, Ohio? Nebraska? California?

And I have little to no respect for people who know they're going to lose an election and therefore decline to participate  because they're aware they can't win and are just looking to make the election look illegitimate.

"If you don't vote, you can't complain."

DJQuag

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2020, 06:49:41 PM »
Remove the six seats. I can't recall how long it's been but the size of the House hasn't changed in quite a while and if Arizona gaining a Rep and an electoral vote due to a census isn't a big deal I don't see why changing the proportion of Reps due to a new state would be.

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2020, 12:57:22 PM »
I think there is a non-zero chance that section 4 of the 25th amendment will be exercised before the end of the year.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2020, 04:51:11 PM »
I think there is a non-zero chance that section 4 of the 25th amendment will be exercised before the end of the year.

I'd still strongly suspect January 21st, 2023.

It only happens sooner if Biden selects a majority leftist cabinet and moves "too far towards the center."

Although there also is this fly in the ointment regarding the section 4 of the 25th: (It pays to read things rather than rely on memory)

Quote
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Kamala has a window of just 21 days, and possibly much less than that, to discredit Biden sufficiently to get a supermajority (2/3rd vote of both houses) to choose to remove Biden, otherwise Biden remains in office and she then has a larger problem on her hands. Remember, that is a 2/3rds vote to replace the President, not re-instate him. The 2/3rd vote requirement in the House of Representatives also makes a section 4 removal against the President's Will harder to perform than impeachment.

Unless Biden is truly and completely mentally unfit for office, she's not getting rid of him unless he decides not to fight for whatever reason. As the Republicans may rather enjoy the chance to leave him in office if he's gone "mildly senile" rather than deal with a President Kamala.

If Biden "is all there" her attempted Section 4 removal of him then opens her up to impeachment if Biden fights back, although that one may require the Republicans to regain control of the House in the 2022 elections to complete.

So I guess after having bothered to re-read section 4, "Centrist Biden" is actually pretty safe from that section of the 25th Amendment if he goes that route. Anyone in his administration that backs a Section 4 attempt on him would likely be impeached in 2023 if they try, assuming Biden/others doesn't get them to resign first.

TheDrake

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2020, 05:06:08 PM »
I think there is a non-zero chance that section 4 of the 25th amendment will be exercised before the end of the year.

I'd still strongly suspect January 21st, 2023.

I think Donald means this year, which means Trump replaced by Pence. I'm not sure why Pence would stage a coup to be a lame duck President, or are you suggesting that Trump will suffer a severe health problem between now and then?

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #30 on: November 08, 2020, 05:21:01 PM »
I think Donald means this year, which means Trump replaced by Pence. I'm not sure why Pence would stage a coup to be a lame duck President, or are you suggesting that Trump will suffer a severe health problem between now and then?

I guess that kind of makes more sense than him, of all people, predicting Kamala would Section 4 Biden before the end of his first year in office. Although the thread he did it in still odd.

I guess a section 4 claim against Trump is possible depending on how unhinged he becomes over his presumptive loss. But in that context, I'd expect it to happen at some point in January after Congress ratifies the results. Which would be next year, not this year.  8)

msquared

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #31 on: November 08, 2020, 05:21:38 PM »
I think if Pence takes over then he pardons Trump for any crimes he might have committed. Trump probably is not able to pardon himself.

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #32 on: November 08, 2020, 05:26:27 PM »
My point being, that Trump very well may choose to cause so many problems to The Republic before the transition that even the Republicans will want him removed. Not because Pence wants the job but because he's doing so much damage to the Republican brand of which he is no longer of any assistance.

Don't forget, there are senate elections coming in early January that may be just as or maybe even more important than the results of the presidential election.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2020, 05:28:29 PM »
My point being, that Trump very well may choose to cause so many problems to The Republic before the transition that even the Republicans will want him removed. Not because Pence wants the job but because he's doing so much damage to the Republican brand of which he is no longer of any assistance.

Same problem with try to Section 4 trump however, only reversed.

The Democrats may not want to remove him in that case because of the political hay they make out of it. So the 2/3rds super majority vote doesn't happen.

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2020, 05:52:10 PM »
You seem to think that, provided with sufficient evidence that even the cabinet is convinced that Trump is no longer able to fulfill his duties, that the Democrats would then vote to keep him in power? Seriously?

I doubt that many, if any, Democrats don't already believe that Trump should be removed, and most of them have been very very clear and I would say vociferous in their belief that he is completely ill-fitted for the job (impeachment, anybody?)

But even if Democrats are actually as unprincipled as Republicans when it comes to Trump, the math just doesn't work; if any Democratic senator votes against removing Trump in that situation, where the senator previously voice support for impeachment but more generally for Trump being a completely useless president, that wouldn't play well with the electorate. If sufficient Democratic senators defeated removal of the president there's just no way that sufficient Democratic voters would show up to vote in January.

Fenring

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2020, 12:28:32 AM »
Unless Biden is truly and completely mentally unfit for office, she's not getting rid of him unless he decides not to fight for whatever reason. As the Republicans may rather enjoy the chance to leave him in office if he's gone "mildly senile" rather than deal with a President Kamala.

Although it appears DonaldD meant Trump/Pence, the Biden/Harris scenario is just as possible for other reasons. But I don't think it would be Harris out to remove him. Rather it would be a coordinated and agreed upon plan for him, as the veteran politician, to win the election, then hand it over to her since he's (for argument's sake) ineffectual, senile, etc. It would be his job to get here there, and hers to take over and be the new face of the DNC.

Aris Katsaris

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2020, 10:36:20 AM »
Unless Biden is truly and completely mentally unfit for office, she's not getting rid of him unless he decides not to fight for whatever reason. As the Republicans may rather enjoy the chance to leave him in office if he's gone "mildly senile" rather than deal with a President Kamala.

Although it appears DonaldD meant Trump/Pence, the Biden/Harris scenario is just as possible for other reasons. But I don't think it would be Harris out to remove him. Rather it would be a coordinated and agreed upon plan for him, as the veteran politician, to win the election, then hand it over to her since he's (for argument's sake) ineffectual, senile, etc. It would be his job to get here there, and hers to take over and be the new face of the DNC.

If it's agreed between the two of them, it wouldn't need invocation of section 4 of the 25th amendment, Biden could just resign for health reasons. Presumably only after the first 2 years of his presidency, so that Harris would still be able to get two additional full terms (whereas by the 22nd amendment she would only be entitled to only one term if she'd served more than 2 years as president already).

msquared

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2020, 10:51:58 AM »
But that is not nearly as nefarious. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2020, 10:58:36 AM »
Unless Biden is truly and completely mentally unfit for office, she's not getting rid of him unless he decides not to fight for whatever reason. As the Republicans may rather enjoy the chance to leave him in office if he's gone "mildly senile" rather than deal with a President Kamala.

Although it appears DonaldD meant Trump/Pence, the Biden/Harris scenario is just as possible for other reasons. But I don't think it would be Harris out to remove him. Rather it would be a coordinated and agreed upon plan for him, as the veteran politician, to win the election, then hand it over to her since he's (for argument's sake) ineffectual, senile, etc. It would be his job to get here there, and hers to take over and be the new face of the DNC.

As pointed out, if Biden wants to step aside, he need only resign with no need to invoke Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.

The context of my prior concerns about Section 4, while I was going off of memory, was that Kamala Harris could potential use Section 4 as a proverbial sword over Biden's head just waiting for a moment to strike if he steps out of line in regards to left-wing agenda items. The super majority requirement from both Houses of Congress in order for her to get such a tactic to last longer than 3 weeks means that option doesn't really exist for her as a political tool at the least.

Fenring

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2020, 11:05:38 AM »
As pointed out, if Biden wants to step aside, he need only resign with no need to invoke Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.

Well I suppose it depends on how they want it to show. Hypothetically the theatre is different between "Biden steps down due to health reasons", which might be open to the accusation that he never intended to preside and his run for President was a fraud; this would be especially powerful if there was no appreciable change in his health between now and then. Using the 25th would be more aggressive theatre, that would make it look like Harris is trying to fix something broken, rather than colluding behind closed doors to defraud the public (by which I mean telling people they're voting for Biden for Prez whereas in fact they were actually voting for Harris for Prez).

TheDrake

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2020, 11:31:44 AM »
In that scenario, would Trumpians start defending Joe's mental competence?

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2020, 11:36:57 AM »
In that scenario, would Trumpians start defending Joe's mental competence?

That would largely depend on how capable Biden proves himself of being in regards to working with them.

Otherwise, they could go for the reverse and support Kamala so they can use her as a boogeyman in the current/next election cycle.

yossarian22c

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2020, 12:35:53 PM »
I will wager the 25th isn't invoked nor threatened.

I do think Biden will not run again in 2024 but I think he'll have an unremarkable presidency. The senate republicans are going to determine if he manages over a reviving economy or a recession. So I'm betting on recession. The day he takes office they are going to go 100% deficit 100% of the time and refuse any additional stimulus or aid to states. Its not going to cost them in red states because they'll play the fiscal stimulus card and just blame Biden for the failing economy.

If Biden can be a successful president is going to come down to the 2022 Senate races. If the dems can't retake the Senate then its going to be 4 years of slow recovery as the economy tries to recover while the federal government puts the breaks on economic growth by cutting spending during a recession.

The fact that the Republicans are likely going to hold the Senate means no big policy initiatives can get through. So the best I'm really hoping for is that Biden manages to run the executive well and rebuild and repair the parts of the federal bureaucracy that Trump was damaging through inept leadership and horrible political appointees. I think we'll see some small positives on the environmental front, but nothing major because the senate won't be on board. After four years of Trump, four years of boring won't be a bad thing.

msquared

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »
I wonder if Trump will release his health care plan now and his taxes?

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2020, 03:03:48 PM »
I think he'll be releasing his health plan in two weeks' time...

Seriati

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #45 on: November 09, 2020, 04:33:51 PM »
These threads are always fun to come back to a few years later to see how what the politicians said they would do matches up to what they actually tried to do and then what they really accomplished. Obama's promises about healthcare are a good example, one with no individual mandate and average costs coming down twenty-five hundred dollars per family compared to what actually happened. So what is Biden promising to do, will he do it, and will it work as intended?

Biden is promising to be autocratic, to restore the Obama precedent of using executive orders to illegally create laws.  It will work because as Obama showed it can't be stopped unless the other party controls BOTH the House and 2/3rds of the Senate.  As there are more than 34 Democrat Senators and the Democrat's control the House, Biden will use executive orders to violate the Constitution.  He's already announced he's going to reenter the Paris Treaty, still without Senate approval, that he's going to re-institute the illegal DACA program, and several other "Day 1," initiatives - none of which involve any legislative agenda.  So I guess the DNC does get what it wants, more fascism from its own team.  That's before you consider he thinks he can order everyone in the country to wear a mask - wait till you see how that's going to be enforced.

He's going to bury any investigation into his own criminal conduct, his family's criminal conduct and the greatest political crime of the century that Obama Admin carried out in respect of the incoming Trump admin.  Again, DNC gets what it wants, a permanent double standard where the same conduct is criminal for Republicans and "totally okay" for Democrats.  He'll not only get away with it, he'll be praised for it.  Seems like people are always cheering somehow when they give away their own rights.

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Will he succeed in getting the filthy rich to pay more in taxes and will his tax policies end up resulting in more money to the Treasury?

Lol, his policies were never about this.  Why do you think the filthy rich backed Biden overwhelmingly with their big money (do you remember, oh say every year before this one, when the Dems on the board through absolutely tantrums about dark money, lol, bet you didn't know their only real complaint was that they didn't think it was in their favor).  Under Trump there were real income gains among the poorest of us, under Biden and Obama, it was all about the rich benefitting more and that's the status quo they were looking to restore.  You can expect headline grabbing top line tax numbers to go up, and you can expect there won't be any real headlines on all the new deductions and special incentives that go right in behind them to ensure the really rich and connected end up better than now (meanwhile all those in the middle class will end up worse, cause the DNC really does seek to make people dependent on government, which is where they get their votes).

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Will he get the assault weapons ban he wants?

Nope.  But you can expect completely partisan legal cases that seek and even may bankrupt those defending the second amendment and maybe even gun manufacturers themselves.  Meanwhile, like always, everywhere the DNC's control increases so does the crime.

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Is our healthcare system going to be substantially improved and can he really "shutdown the virus" like he said?

No, healthcare will get worse, same as it did under Obama.  Our healthcare's overwhelming problem is too much government involvement.  Under Biden that's only going to increase.  You'll pay more for even less.

As far as the virus, my guess is yes.  Not because Biden is going to do anything, but because he's going to be the beneficiary of the exceptional work that the Trump administration engaged in.  Finding, completely "fascinating" that Biden's team made real efforts to meet with all the drug companies working on vaccines, and that after the media repeatedly undercut Trump's message about how vaccines were coming, we have an announcement less than a week after the election about 90% effective vaccine results.  If I were a betting man, I'd take that as a lock the results were deliberately delayed because they completely undercut the message Biden wanted to send.

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Will there be less pollution and will climate change slow down because of his administration?

Not because of any anti-pollution efforts (those have been stable under all Presidents), but only because he'll slow down the economy and therefore we'll have less pollution.  Kind of silver lining on what's going to be an economic disaster. 

I mean, the way Biden is going to handle this globally is going to be a disaster.  The Paris Accord was not a pollution reduction treaty it was always a scam.  US carbon production hit a cap in 2006, and has been going down ever since while our production and efficiency has been increasing.  Trump's economy was better than Obama's and involved increases in manufacturing, and for carbon production was slightly up over the last year of Obama's but still below the average (granted, there was a drop from beginning to end of Obama).  In fact, under Trump US pollution from energy production continued to decline, but pollution from transportation increased (if you want to stop US pollution convince people to stop driving).  None of it shocking or unreasonable. 

Long and short is from 2006 to present, US has dropped from abt. 6 billion tons of carbon to around 5.5 billion tons.  In the same time period, China went from about 6 billion tons to over 10 billion tons.  India went from 1.3 billion to about 3 billion.  No matter what Biden claims, he's already announcing he's going to lift the tariffs on China and the Chinese think he's a done deal to open up to them completely.  You can expect that Chinese pollution rate to climb even faster, and as there's NO LEVEL OF CUTS that the US can make that will cause pollution to descrease without controlling China, all Biden is telling you is that he's going to sell out BOTH the economy and the environment and get congratulated for doing it. 

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I wonder about all of that and a lot more. Just like with Obama, the good thing is that we get to see if these people can deliver on their promises. When they fail like Obama did miserably, that sets up the other side for a good chance at taking over for a while the way Trump did and may yet do again.

Except they made that mistake before, and they don't plan on making it again.  While that could have been a good thing, they could have reconsidered what they were doing and made policy corrections to get to a better place, that's not what they decided to do.  They decided that the way to make sure we don't get another Trump is to make sure the system is rigged to give themselves permanent power.  That's what Biden and the DNC plan to do with their four years (or heck, why not admit it, it's not going to be four years, it's intended to never transfer power again).
« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 04:37:47 PM by Seriati »

Seriati

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #46 on: November 09, 2020, 04:40:00 PM »
But even if Democrats are actually as unprincipled as Republicans when it comes to Trump...

Lol, the Democrats have no principles at all when it comes to Trump.

TheDrake

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #47 on: November 09, 2020, 11:52:23 PM »
Yes, I remember the headlines when DACA was ruled unconstitutional. I mean, I get that you and the Heritage foundation disagree, but that isn't really your job, is it? Selective enforcement of a variety of things is also not unconstitutional. It is about allocation of resources when it comes to enforcement. DACA rightfully can not grant citizenship. The federal government is not compelled to enforce every law, that would be impractical and a waste of resources.

He will obviously also stop sending people back to their home countries to be murdered by drug lords and sold into prostitution.

Likewise, he will start processing Visas in a timely fashion and help talented people who happen to have been born in other countries to be able to work here on a path to citizenship.

I'm sure that infuriates you, Seriati, but as Rhett Butler said...

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #48 on: November 10, 2020, 02:14:12 AM »
The federal government is not compelled to enforce every law, that would be impractical and a waste of resources.

What? I'd be saying that is a case for congress getting their act in gear and cleaning out the cruft so the Federal Government doesn't have such significant overhead, rather than simply empowering the PotUS to pick and choose which laws get to be ignored.

TheDrake

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Re: Predictions and thoughts on the Biden Presidency
« Reply #49 on: November 10, 2020, 11:23:52 AM »
The federal government is not compelled to enforce every law, that would be impractical and a waste of resources.

What? I'd be saying that is a case for congress getting their act in gear and cleaning out the cruft so the Federal Government doesn't have such significant overhead, rather than simply empowering the PotUS to pick and choose which laws get to be ignored.

Great, so you think the FDA should start arresting people in marijuana dispensaries? That's a law too.

Some states and counties have blue laws still on the books that say businesses can't open on Sundays.

Officers can decide arbitrarily when to let someone off with a warning versus the hassle of arresting them.

Do you know the size of the federal code? There are 4000 to 5000 statutes. Are you under the illusion that they are all being enforced without discretion?

I'm not sure if you were one of them, but there have been people on this board applauding Sheriffs who refuse to enforce gun legislation.

I'd sure be happier if we cleared out resources, say, devoted to the war on drugs and turned those resources toward financial fraud. But I don't get to make those decisions.

This makes sense given that the President has the power to pardon. If you had a way to compel law enforcement, ie DOJ, then all the President would have to do to nullify it is constantly pardon everyone who got caught.

ruling on the matter

Even more clear, removal isn't a criminal issue, it is a civil one.

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The Federal Government’s broad, undoubted power over immigration and alien status rests, in part, on its constitutional power to “establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization,” Art. I, §8, cl. 4, and on its inherent sovereign power to control and conduct foreign relations, see Toll v. Moreno, 458 U. S. 1, 10. Federal governance is extensive and complex. Among other things, federal law specifies categories of aliens who are ineligible to be admitted to the United States, 8 U. S. C. §1182; requires aliens to register with the Federal Government and to carry proof of status, §§1304(e), 1306(a); imposes sanctions on employers who hire unauthorized workers, §1324a; and specifies which aliens may be removed and the procedures for doing so, see §1227. Removal is a civil matter, and one of its principal features  is the broad discretion exercised by immigration officials, who must decide whether to pursue removal at all.

So if Congress wanted to be heartless draconians whose sole purpose is ejecting anyone not here legally, they can change the word may to must. That would be a tragedy, because it would affect refugees, asylum seekers, victims of human trafficking, surviving spouses of US citizens, foreign students affected by natural disasters, etc.