COVID vaccines are more like a seatbelt than immunity

[LetterRip]

So, read an amazing article on vaccinations and it appears that most people (including myself) have misunderstood them and are overestimating how much they reduce risk against the riskiest scenarios.

Key takeaway - vaccines are more like a seatbelt than invulnerability - they help reduce risk especially at lower risk situations, but high risk you're still at serious risk.

Essentially vaccines increases resistance to the virus - 20x-50x resistance for the first 2 months following your second vaccination for Pfiser, however resistance decreases to 3x-8x after 3-7 months.  That resistance can be overwhelmed by high viral load exposure - for instance being around people singing or loudly talking (bars, crowded restaurant) increases your viral load exposure 200x-400x and can be 800x-1500x in enclosed areas.  I'd assume this also would be true for gyms.

Also super spreader individuals (about 3% of the population) have viral loads 50,000x-100,000x (I'd no idea it was so incredibly high)

So being vaccinated offers protection, but nowhere near enough for 'back to normal' for me. Things I was looking forward to doing (going to karaoke, maybe chilling at a sports bar, competitive team sports, indoor workouts) - I probably won't be willing to do unless I know that everyone with me has been vaccinated and is still being reasonably cautious.

To return to normal really requires herd immunity where the virus can extinguish - and we need to achieve it before a extremely nasty mutation comes along and given the above, the level of vaccination we need is probably way higher than we were anticipating.

For those interested in details see

https://coronavirus.quora.com/Here-s-what-I-ve-seen-about-Covid-resistance-from-a-natural-infection-b-1st-generation-vaccines-primarily-Pfizer

[LetterRip]

Hmm meant to write as topic 'more like a seatbelt than invulnerability' (or invincibility) - ah well that is why not to do posts at 4 am.

[TheDrake]

I will probably be willing to hit public places three weeks from now with full vax. Why? #1, cases are continuing to drop in the first place. #2, 20x is pretty improved. #3, strong indications that even if you contract covid vaccination drastically diminishes symptoms.

For instance, an Israeli study shows a drop in hospitalization of 87%. I'll live with an influenza level of sickness to be in public more often. I might go for the cheap seats at the ballpark for my first time though, less density and more outdoors.

Of course, everything is relative to one's personal risk based on a variety of factors. I won't be travelling to Michigan any time soon.

My county is hovering at 13 per 100,000 for the past month. I don't think I'll be going to any Republican Party potluck dinners any time soon in Texas though.

[LetterRip]

For instance, an Israeli study shows a drop in hospitalization of 87%. I'll live with an influenza level of sickness to be in public more often. I might go for the cheap seats at the ballpark for my first time though, less density and more outdoors.

To be clear it was a case controlled study, so the vaccinated group had significantly fewer hospitalizations than the non-vaccinated group.  So one thing to be cautious about is that there is a selection bias in who gets vaccines.  Cautious people are more likely to be the people who get vaccinated the soonest, and thus they are less likely to catch COVID-19 or to be hospitalized, etc.  I don't think the way they did case controls will account for this sufficiently (It does somewhat since there was matching for number of influenza vaccinations that each person had recieved over the past 10 years) thus a significant part of that difference in hospitalizations is going to be based on personality and behavioural characteristics of people who choose to be vaccine early adopters, rather than the vaccines effectiveness.

[Crunch]

So being vaccinated offers protection, but nowhere near enough for 'back to normal' for me. Things I was looking forward to doing (going to karaoke, maybe chilling at a sports bar, competitive team sports, indoor workouts) - I probably won't be willing to do unless I know that everyone with me has been vaccinated and is still being reasonably cautious.

This kind of thing is crazy. A direct result of the relentless fear mongering over the last year. This idea that the vaccine doesn’t really work is absurd and nothing more than a power play to keep the unprecedented government control going.

[LetterRip]

The vaccine works and works great.  Another analogy is condoms - highly effective but not likely that I will have sex with random people during an HIV epidemic.

Once the pandemic is under control - few new daily infections in my state I will reevaluate high risk public social activities with strangers.  For now though not worth it to me.

I'm not particularly fearful - indeed as far as rational riek evaluation I'm probably the least fearful person I know( one of the benefits of expectation value thinking from studying poker).

[Aris Katsaris]

Oh, it's you!

The guy who was saying that we were fearmongering when there were 2500 deaths around the world, and surprise surprise you're STILL saying we were supposedly "fearmongering" when there have been millions of deaths around the world, and 580k USA deaths, alone.

Never learned a single thing. Was the coronavirus just like the flu, as you claimed, Crunch?

Coronavirus, 20 deaths in the US, under 4,000 globally. MASS HYSTERIA. Orange man bad!  Close everything down! “But muh Trump!”, shout the NPC’s.

TDS has made way too many people completely irrational.

We were "NPCs" with our "hysteria" and our "irrationality", eh?

It seems that the people who had "TDS" were right yet again, just as they were with everything else about Trump (including his fascism btw, as proven when he tried to overthrow American democracy)! And it seems that Trump and *you* who followed his lead in downplaying and mocking the supposed "hysteria", have the blood of hundreds of thousands on your hands.

But of course you won't apologize. And therefore I will be quoting every single stupid thing about covid that you ever said in this forum, as you insulted everyone who was far FAR more correct than you and the "orange man" that you worship.

[Crunch]

I remember guys like you salivating at the thought of over 2 million dead, tens of millions worldwide. There were supposed to be mass graves. I was actually more right than you, only people in very narrow demographics were at a elevated risk. You want to pretend otherwise, well, that’s on you.

[Crunch]

The vaccine works and works great.  Another analogy is condoms - highly effective but not likely that I will have sex with random people during an HIV epidemic.

Once the pandemic is under control - few new daily infections in my state I will reevaluate high risk public social activities with strangers.  For now though not worth it to me.

I'm not particularly fearful - indeed as far as rational riek evaluation I'm probably the least fearful person I know( one of the benefits of expectation value thinking from studying poker).

You’re saying one thing but behavior is another. Not fearful, just not leaving the house unless everyone in your planned destination can be proven vaccinated and, even then, taking more caution (I assume distancing and masks).

Either you believe the science and that the vaccines work, or you don’t. I think people should believe they work and get back to normal life.

[LetterRip]

I regularly leave the house - I just don't spend much time in enclosed spaces woth loud talking strangers.

Karaoke and bars werent a big part of my life before Covid so it isn't a big deal to not go to them.  It isn't fear but rational evaluation of risk.  You seem to be a person particularly prone to poor risk evaluation - you drastically underweight real risks and seem highly fearful of remote risks.


I find it rather amusing that someone who has little or no understanding of science is trying to tell me what the science says.

[Aris Katsaris]

I remember guys like you salivating at the thought of over 2 million dead, tens of millions worldwide. There were supposed to be mass graves. I was actually more right than you, only people in very narrow demographics were at a elevated risk. You want to pretend otherwise, well, that’s on you.

Cool maths, bro. But you were calling it "hysteria" when people were speaking even just about thousands of deaths. Because after all only one American had died, so anyone who spoke about more deaths was supposedly being hysterical.

Then after months and months, you accepted an estimate of 60,000 deaths, called it just a flu season, and again kept insulting everyone who spoke about larger numbers, because supposedly your NEW estimate was the correct one. Even though it was disproven within a week or so.

But, sure, you were more right than us, supposedly. Because the guy who said 15 dead, and the guy who said 1 million, well they're equally correct when the total number is 560,000, right? That's math for you! It doesn't matter if you (and Trump) are off by a factor of 50,000, and the "hysterical people" are off by a factor of 0.5, the latter is supposedly more wrong than the former.

Because that's the maths of a Trumpist.

And the blood remains dripping from your hands, and the hands of your fascist leader.

[msquared]

Crunch, you sure use that word salivating wrong. You imply that those who were worried about the virus were hoping for 2 million deaths. Of course that was and is not true. And that number was if nothing was done.  We did shut down the economy, started wearing masks, social distancing. Not 100%, mainly due to Trump and his disdain for science. And the death toll was cut to 1/4 of the projected.  It could have been cut by a whole lot more if Trump had any sense or morality or decency. or relationship to the truth.

Vaccines work but less than half the country has had even one shot, and just over 1/3 of the country is fully vaccinated. Surely you can see that while we are on the way, small actions like wearing a mask is not too much.

Or are you on the side of Tucker Carlson who thinks making kids wear masks is child abuse and you should call CPS?

[cherrypoptart]

Let's say you have four people living in a house. Three of them have high risk factors and because of allergies or choice do not get the vaccine. The fourth gets the vaccine, waits for it to go into effect, and then starts going to the gym where people are not wearing masks. How safe is that?

[Crunch]

I remember guys like you salivating at the thought of over 2 million dead, tens of millions worldwide. There were supposed to be mass graves. I was actually more right than you, only people in very narrow demographics were at a elevated risk. You want to pretend otherwise, well, that’s on you.

Cool maths, bro. But you were calling it "hysteria" when people were speaking even just about thousands of deaths. Because after all only one American had died, so anyone who spoke about more deaths was supposedly being hysterical.

Then after months and months, you accepted an estimate of 60,000 deaths, called it just a flu season, and again kept insulting everyone who spoke about larger numbers, because supposedly your NEW estimate was the correct one. Even though it was disproven within a week or so.

But, sure, you were more right than us, supposedly. Because the guy who said 15 dead, and the guy who said 1 million, well they're equally correct when the total number is 560,000, right? That's math for you! It doesn't matter if you (and Trump) are off by a factor of 50,000, and the "hysterical people" are off by a factor of 0.5, the latter is supposedly more wrong than the former.

Because that's the maths of a Trumpist.

And the blood remains dripping from your hands, and the hands of your fascist leader.

Uh .... mkay there chief. But you know what you could do? You could compare the fatality rates of COVID to Flu for the age group demographics. What do you think that will say? That's kind of rhetorical, we all know what it says.   

[yossarian22c]

Uh .... mkay there chief. But you know what you could do? You could compare the fatality rates of COVID to Flu for the age group demographics. What do you think that will say? That's kind of rhetorical, we all know what it says.   

Because if you survive it isn't bad? There are significant numbers of peoples who have had lengthy hospital stays followed by months long recoveries. Not sure about you but a 4 week ICU stay followed by 3 months of recovery is something I would like to avoid even if I never showed up in the death statistics.

[msquared]

Crunch

Answer this one simple question.   Did more people die in this pandemic, in the US, then you originally thought would die? And I mean by an order of magnitude?

[msquared]

Most patients who got Covid and had to go to the hospital between Jan 1 and mid Apri had not been fully vaccinated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-clinic-study-over-99-165631981.html

Get your shot.

[Aris Katsaris]

Uh .... mkay there chief. But you know what you could do? You could compare the fatality rates of COVID to Flu for the age group demographics. What do you think that will say? That's kind of rhetorical, we all know what it says.   

Or we could instead compare the NUMBER OF THE DEAD, you monster, as we care about saving lives, namely the thing us non-Trumpists and non-evil human beings actually cared about! Not about "fatality rates" but SAVING LIVES!

If you knew that there would be more than a half of million dead Americans, why didn't you tell us in advance, you evil human being? Why did you insist for the longest time on much smaller numbers like "60000" (and that's only after you were forced to withdraw from lesser claims that you and your evil president had previously made)?

Oh, but suddenly numbers of lives lost of course suddenly don't matter, only "fatality rates" do.

Why is every Trumpist such an utterly EVIL son of a bitch? Have you all made a pact with Satan or something, to never be honest once in your whole lives?

Aris: Please see your email. -OrneryMod

[cherrypoptart]

I'm a Trumpist and I've taken Covid seriously since even before the WHO or CDC did. I took it seriously and knew we should have done a total travel ban instead of Trump's half-hearted one while Biden ranted about travel bans being the knee-jerk reaction of a racist xenophobe. I knew that masks would help while our own government and the WHO as well were saying healthy people didn't need them. I still wear double masks along with eye protection when indoors with other people. I don't wear any protection outside since I don't stand around people outdoors. We should do a total travel ban right now exactly the same way that New Zealand and Australia are doing theirs. If citizens want to come back they need to go into a guarded quarantine. Non-citizens can stay out for now until this whole thing dies down. If we would have been doing that since the beginning how many hundreds of thousands of American lives would have been saved? And not just American lives but shutting down non-essential international travel would have helped save lives abroad too from the Americans jet-setting around the globe and spreading the virus. I just love how the left wants to get on about the masks, and y'all are absolutely correct about masks indoors helping to reduce the spread of the virus, but then you turn around and neglect to mention the necessity of travel restrictions. Because those are racist? And Biden put some in place anyway. Too little and too late and why is it any less racist now? Would have been nice if Democrats would have been onboard when all this first started.

[LetterRip]

cherry,

I appreciate that you have largely been reasonably concerned about covid.

Regarding a travel ban - it makes sense in countries with close to zero infections that are easy to enforce.  For the US it makes no sense since say 5 new infections from travellers is dwarfed by 100.000 new infections from residents.

Once the US gets to say 1000 new infections per day or lower - extreme measures such as that might make sense.

[TheDrake]

Even back in the early days, a travel restriction like New Zealand is a non-starter. Not being an island, we depend on lots and lots of people washing back and forth between Canada and Mexico for essential goods if nothing else, but you also have people on borders working in the other country. It is possible that an immediate travel ban on all countries except non-essential commerce would have done some good. However, I suspect that even you were not calling for that at the time, Cherry. Apologies if you were saying that at the time, I seem to recall you were more interested in defending China travel ban that extending it worldwide.