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Messages - ScottF

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1
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 30, 2020, 02:07:37 PM »
Of the goal is to keep people as safe as possible while opening up the economy wearing a mask is the least we can do.

I understand the reflex, I really do. But the science just doesn't support masks being effective out in public the way people want to believe they are. Here's about a minute on how even N95 masks don't work to filter out something as small as a C19 virus particle.

Most of the masks being worn by the faithful are not nearly as fine as the N95. Any covering will stop spit from flying, so if that's the main point being made, great. The broader point, you know, actually preventing the virus from being airborne in general, is not supported by masks

https://twitter.com/jcho710/status/1273924949162340353

2
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 30, 2020, 12:33:22 PM »
Quote
For healthcare workers or caregivers with prolonged exposure inside 1M of others it’s not symbolic. Most everyone else, it’s symbolic.

Then how does the virus spread in the population?  How have dozens of people who gathered at bars, restaurants, church services, lakes, etc., caught it from each other?

Through touching and expectoration of the virus through breathing. People seem to think that the masks being ineffective is some kind of flat earth all-in argument. It's not.

Surgical and cotton masks are great for bacterial containment but ineffective for most viruses, which can be up to 400X smaller than bacteria. It's like trying to catch plankton in a salmon net.

From a peer-reviewed study in April:

Neither surgical nor cotton masks effectively filtered SARS–CoV-2 during coughs by infected patients. Prior evidence that surgical masks effectively filtered influenza virus

(1) informed recommendations that patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 should wear face masks to prevent transmission

(2). However, the size and concentrations of SARS–CoV-2 in aerosols generated during coughing are unknown. Oberg and Brousseau

(3) demonstrated that surgical masks did not exhibit adequate filter performance against aerosols measuring 0.9, 2.0, and 3.1 μm in diameter. Lee and colleagues

(4) showed that particles 0.04 to 0.2 μm can penetrate surgical masks. The size of the SARS–CoV particle from the 2002–2004 outbreak was estimated as 0.08 to 0.14 μm

(5); assuming that SARS-CoV-2 has a similar size, surgical masks are unlikely to effectively filter this virus.


I realize this kind of science angers the mask orthodoxy, but that doesn't make it less true. This isn't even addressing all the people I see with the mask below their nose, using loose cloth bandannas, using the same cotton mask for weeks on end, etc.

As I've said often, wear a mask whenever you want if it makes you feel better.
 
Just be honest in acknowledging that for this virus, masks out in public are likely as effective as a pouch of chicken bones or a rabbit's foot.

3
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 29, 2020, 01:23:01 AM »
I gotta admit I'm liking Biden on the mask issue.

He said he'd issue an executive order or something requiring everyone to wear masks, presumably indoors or when social distancing parameters couldn't be maintained.

In my state it’s been mandated, from what I can tell, universally. Inside, outside, wear a mask. It’s symbolic. A talisman that shows you’re taking things seriously.

No. It isn't symbolic. Or would you like to go into surgery and none of the doctors or nurses want to bother wearing masks?

For healthcare workers or caregivers with prolonged exposure inside 1M of others it’s not symbolic. Most everyone else, it’s symbolic.

4
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 28, 2020, 11:38:35 AM »
White privilege is real, but call it a caste system if that term is more acceptable to you.

Yes, I'm in agreement with this. In the US today, poverty and class have greater overall oppressive effects than racism. That said, for many in the lower castes, the two are inextricably linked - historical racism having established the initial foundation and future patterns locking people into these castes in the first place.

5
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 27, 2020, 05:53:03 PM »
Finally, a handy flowchart to help determine whether something is racist or not.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1276983652988092419

6
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 27, 2020, 01:29:49 AM »
I gotta admit I'm liking Biden on the mask issue.

He said he'd issue an executive order or something requiring everyone to wear masks, presumably indoors or when social distancing parameters couldn't be maintained.

In my state it’s been mandated, from what I can tell, universally. Inside, outside, wear a mask. It’s symbolic. A talisman that shows you’re taking things seriously.

7
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 26, 2020, 11:28:01 AM »
We seem to have shifted from the daily death ticker to "cases" as the panic-point metric but without context around age distribution, cases don't mean much.

If the majority of cases are people over 45, it's concerning. People in their early thirties and younger, not so much.

Example, in FL the death rate distribution for all cases looks like this:

Age.  Death rate/case
85+: 28.18%
75-84: 15.21%
65-74: 7.31%
55-64: 2.03%
45-54: 0.71?
35-44: 0.34%
25-34: 0.09%
15-24: 0.03%
5-14: 0%
0-4: 0%

C19 is highly undiscerning regarding cases but incredibly selective as to who's at risk of getting really sick and dying. The focus should now be on making sure people on the scary end of this distribution take all precautions, not generically reacting to cases in general.

8
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 24, 2020, 10:27:44 AM »
I don't really think many of the people tearing down and destroying things are troubled by specific reasoning, or thinking about it much at all. Legendary blues guitarist Stevie Ray Vaughn's statue in Austin is one of the latest casualties. I suppose his spin on Texas blues can be considered cultural propagation of original blues artists. And he is white so...burn it!

There are a small number of "troubling" monuments being destroyed for legitimate (or legitimately perceived at least) reasons. The majority of the destruction we're seeing is not that. It's simply easier to destroy than create.

9
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 23, 2020, 12:50:23 AM »

Yeah, why burn books and tear down history? Why not praise the Democrat party that started the KKK and fought against Civil Rights? After all, if history must be erased, then why nor substitute disinformation that makes you look better?

Tearing down anything is not protest. It is simply vandalism. Most Trump supporters don't wear MAGA hats because they are afraid of Democrat bullies and physical attack. Only one party does this.

Statues are not history.

Neither are books or buildings. Burn it all.

10
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 22, 2020, 11:32:34 AM »
Down goes Grant! Maybe it's just statues in general (no pun intended)?

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/20/ulysses-grant-statue-toppled-in-san-francisco/

11
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 22, 2020, 10:16:08 AM »
I've been looking into the statue situation. If the purpose and motivation is to address the glorification and outright celebration of the US' racist past, there's a lot more work to do. Cases in point:

Berkley: George Berkley was a slave owner.
Stanford: Leland Stanford said “I prefer the white man to the negro as an inhabitant to our country. I believe its greatest good has been derived by having all of the country settled by free white men.”
Yale: Elihu Yale Was A Slave Trader.
Princeton: Named after a town that is named after dictator.
Harvard: Haven't found a direct connection to racism yet, but I'm sure it's there.

These are just our elite/ivy league schools, there must be hundreds more that need addressing.

12
General Comments / Re: We gotta talk about Uncle Joe
« on: June 17, 2020, 11:18:03 AM »
We've seen the poll/reality disconnect before - smart people will be dubious, or at least not look to polls as good predictors. The media and current climate have driven a lot of right-leaning voters underground, much more so than in 2016.

They're not going to have Trump bumper stickers or walk around wearing maga hats (look, a racist!) and many of them won't tip their hand to a pollster either.

13
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 16, 2020, 11:11:26 AM »
There are probably several factors in play. First off, most models still call cops when there is a suspected crime involving public safety, like DUI. But let's hypothetically say that somehow a counselor is going to approach him sleeping in his car. The first thing is, he doesn't immediately get triggered like when he stares disoriented into the cops maglite. He doesn't feel threatened at the presence of armed individuals. He probably doesn't panic and try to flee. In other words, less likely to escalate. The counselor also isn't using this as an opportunity to search his car for contraband, so if he did have a bag of weed he's got nothing to worry about.

Then there's the question - how does every other profession deal with someone who physically resists and is unarmed? Like the often mentioned ER doctors, orderlies, and nurses? There's also the possibility of just letting someone go when they physically resist. That dude, should he have lurched out of his car, probably staggers a half block and falls down. Even if he escaped into the wilderness, you have his car. You know where he lives. Would it be so terrible if he "got away" briefly?

That's one potential outcome, and I agree with you in principle. Another outcome is he knows that a counselor isn't likely to compel him to do a damn thing and, being drunk as a skunk, he decides to just leave in his car and kills someone down the street.

14
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 16, 2020, 11:07:21 AM »
It's not entirely clear to me that the police had cause to arrest him, since he was parked at the time and he had not (apparently) failed a breathalizer test. It didn't look like he failed the sobriety test, either, but he did admit to having (I think) one drink.  That's why I asked earlier when it was done, since the portion of the video I was able to watch before it froze didn't show them performing the test.

DUI laws allow for cops to be complete bastards on this front. Parked or not doesn't matter.

Keys in the ignition are sufficient for a DUI conviction, even if he wasn't in the driver's seat. As "keys in the ignition" meet the legal criteria to demonstrate intent to drive.

I'm at 1 remove from a guy who received a DUI for being drunk in the sleeper cab of his truck while 16 hours into a "34 hour restart" for his hours of service. But because he needed to have the keys in the ignition in order to run the Air Conditioning in the truck...

I have a DUI from Vegas for pushing a car down the street while intoxicated.  Apparently, when asked by police why I was pushing my car, I said "because I'm too drunk to drive, Officer."

That's pretty funny.

15
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 16, 2020, 11:05:41 AM »
Yes. This is the 7th week in a row of declining percentage of US deaths. You'd think that would make a headline somewhere. It's good news. Strangely you have to search for it, buried in the CDC website.

There's also an implied context around "cases" that the uninformed miss when reading media headlines. Cases are not, by default, synonymous with death and disaster. Less than 5% of cases ever require hospitalization, and as always its mostly people over 65 or sick already. The vast majority of "cases" either recover or don't even get sick in the first place.

None of that diminishes the real pain and tragedy for the old and sick who end up succumbing to it, and their families. But this is not a societal catastrophe. Never was.

16
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 16, 2020, 10:26:37 AM »
I wonder how the "defund the police" team would have seen this unfold in that new model.

You've got a highly inebriated individual who's unresponsive and then physically resists. How would the trained counselor manage that situation?

17
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 16, 2020, 10:23:25 AM »
In Arizona, more than 1,400 people who were believed to have the virus were hospitalized

Believed to?

Quote
For states with growing coronavirus outbreaks, some officials have arrived at the same conclusion: The rise in infections is unfortunate but inevitable.

“We are not going to be able to stop the spread,” said Dr. Cara Christ, the Arizona state health director. “And so we can’t stop living as well.”

This is correct. It sucks. Old and medically compromised people are going to have a rough go of it over the next couple years.

18
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 15, 2020, 12:59:59 PM »
Even though the data is fairly straightforward when you remove population ratios and look strictly at deaths relative to police interactions, violent crimes and arrests, I've realized that using data in this area becomes a loop.
It doesn't appear to be useful for persuasion purposes. The question ultimately shifts to "why" within the underlying dataset and not "what".

19
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 15, 2020, 11:21:30 AM »
Thanks for the summary fizz. When you say he's not credible, are you saying he doesn't have credibility because of his identity, or for some other reason?

If it's the former, that's actually one of his main points. Any time a conversation can only be one-way because one of the voices isn't the correct identity, it's a bad thing and we're screwed.

He's saying one can acknowledge gaps in their own personal experience and yet still have valid and data-driven points of view on how to properly define the problem. The issue is there are many on the left who disagree with that on its face. Unless you're a member of group X, any ensuing opinions and conversation are null and void. Your role in that scenario is to simply listen and/or possibly kneel.

Acknowledging that racism and inequities are real, while also stating simple facts and data that are counter to the current narrative (e.g. blacks are not over-represented in police killings, quite the opposite) is not allowed. Until the media, which drives the narrative, takes ownership and responsibility, there is no solution in sight.

20
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 15, 2020, 01:58:55 AM »
At least we're all in agreement that this rally is most likely quite safe, after all it’s outside

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1272257194025791489

21
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 14, 2020, 11:19:55 AM »
Apparently 7 years ago Key and Peele predicted how people would think police interactions should actually go down. Comedy Central clip, approx 2min long.

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/mb4xpu/key-and-peele-standoff

22
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 13, 2020, 08:44:39 PM »
I unsubscribed to Sam Harris' podcast some time ago but his recording from yesterday "Can we pull back from the brink?" is compelling. He rails on Trump, who he absolutely despises but also proceeds to touch basically every third rail topic around the current protests, riots, etc.

His concern is that productive dialogue is the only thing standing between violence and civilized society but dialogue has become dangerous by anyone not advocating accepted conclusions. He then very methodically breaks down a mass of numbers around overall violent crimes, police arrests, etc. and lays out data that even I found surprising.

He goes out of his way to acknowledge and condemn all the worst things (inequality, present day racism, its historical impact, police brutality, etc.) but states that much of the current narrative simply isn't supported by the data. At one point he says something to the effect of "what I'm about to say will make many of you indignant and ask why the f&ck are you doing this Sam?". His point that indignation is a horrible excuse not to examine facts and its a trap that people and the media are falling into.

Worth a listen if you can stand to have some of your preconceptions challenged.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmgxtcbc4iU

23
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 12, 2020, 09:05:26 PM »
I'll rest easy knowing that all of those new gun owners are highly trained in the maintenance and operation of their shiny new toys.  If they don't want to get training, they probably should use at least a 9mm weapon and aim for the head, like John Wick does, else it can take up to 6 direct hits to stop someone.  This ignores that they might kill you or they or you might kill other members of your family or bystanders.  So make sure you're close enough not to miss and aim carefully while concealing yourself behind a suitably solid defensive shield.

And whatever else you do, please don't come anywhere near me while carrying your weapon.  I wouldn't want to provoke you unintentionally and have anyone suffer the consequences.

You should teach firearm safety course, your guidance sounds a lot more interesting than the one I’m signed up for. Don't know about you, but I’m really not the provoking nor easily provoked type, accidental or otherwise. Kind of the opposite, actually. And seeing as I know you'd maintain at least 6 feet away for distancing purposes, I suspect we'd have an entirely pleasant interaction.

24
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 12, 2020, 01:53:56 PM »
Correct, but loosening up lockdowns also means more people will go to the hospital or be hospitalized in general. Not saying that's statistically relevant in all the numbers, but it should be considered as a factor.

25
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 12, 2020, 01:50:01 PM »
Not just stores. Gun shops and sales are through the roof here, waiting lines everywhere. Logical or not, people are unsettled by watching law enforcement stand by while groups of people take over and/or burn private property.

I'm awaiting my background check to go through before going to get the handgun I purchased earlier in the month, hopefully today.

26
General Comments / Re: The CHAZ
« on: June 12, 2020, 01:01:17 PM »
A subset of their written demands.

27
General Comments / Re: The CHAZ
« on: June 12, 2020, 12:25:16 PM »
Select list of demands by the "collective black voices" occupying Seattle:

- Abolish all Seattle police and criminal justice organizations
- Abolish ICE
- Abolish all existing pensions for police
- Reopen all closed cases of police brutality
- Publish names of all officers accused of police brutality
- Must have retrials for all People of Color convicted of a violent crime
- Abolish imprisonment
- de-gentrification of Seattle, starting with rent control.
- Free college for everyone in WA state
- Demand all homeless camps be permanently left alone
- Demand that hospitals hire black doctors for black patients

28
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 12, 2020, 02:01:04 AM »
Because the cases from the early protests should start to become known about now. The exponential increase that potentially happened won't be noticed for another 2 weeks yet. But about a week from now, we'll likely have a pretty good idea of what is coming.

They should be getting well known actually:
Quote
The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to extend to 14 days, with a median time of 4-5 days from exposure to symptoms onset.

At the 5 day mark, at least half the infections should have blown up with symptoms. The last half should be right behind it with the edge of the trailing infections already being known. In the week or so after, did we see a sudden, massive, jump?

For the young and healthy, they could spend the first few days of being symptomatic thinking it's allergies (or a reaction to tear gas/other riot controls, or other burning stuff from the rioters).

From there they have to get tested, and for many of them, that means being sick enough to warrant visiting the hospital, rather than tele-medicine. (That and the lockdown probably did a number on the health insurance for those who are now unemployed) And for the "sick enough to warrant hospitalization" criteria suggest about a 2 week timeline as I recall.

But as we're dealing with a predominately young demographic for much of the protesting, only a small fraction of them are likely to get that sick. So it'll be the people they infect who will be going to the hospital instead. So that builds in another week of delay.

So based on the initial protests, 4-5 days is June 1st, plus one week is four days ago. Another poster said two weeks from now. When do we think the surge will happen? If there’s not a dramatic increase [insert number of days here] days from now, what will that mean?

29
General Comments / Re: The CHAZ
« on: June 12, 2020, 01:42:13 AM »
Seattle police chief speaking out about the order to abandon her precinct.  “Rapes, robberies and all sorts of violent acts have been occurring in the area and we're not able to get to [them]."

“You fought for days to protect [the precinct]. I asked you to stand on that line. Day in and day out, to be pelted with projectiles, to be screamed at, threatened and in some cases hurt,” Best told the force.
“Then to have a change of course nearly two weeks in, it seems like an insult to you and our community.”
“Ultimately the city had other plans for the building and relented to public pressure,” she added. “I’m angry about how this all came about.”

Inslee:  “I spoke with @MayorJenny and her team about the situation on Capitol Hill. Although unpermitted, and we should remember we are still in a pandemic, the area is largely peaceful. Peaceful protests are fundamentally American, and I am hopeful there will be a peaceful resolution.“

The governor and the mayor are fully woke. You get the leadership you deserve.

30
General Comments / Re: The CHAZ
« on: June 11, 2020, 10:07:15 PM »
Local government needs to own this. This needs to be Inslee's and the mayor's legacy. They should just thank their stars that Janet Reno isn't the sitting AG. Looking at real estate in BC now.

31
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 11, 2020, 05:19:33 PM »
You mean asymptomatic people can transmit the virus?

Irrelevant. Even though experts from the WHO and elsewhere seem to think that asymptomatic people typically have low viral loads and are lousy transmitters, they were wrong to suggest it publicly. Just wear your mask and forget about asking all these silly questions. We'll know a lot more in 2 weeks, you'll see.

32
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 11, 2020, 12:51:24 PM »
... I fear what the protests combined with other loosening restrictions are going to do to public health and the economy as cases are likely to increase over the next two weeks.

We'll see what happens two weeks from now.

Two weeks from now? The first protests were May 26th, 16 days ago. Large protests happened two weeks ago. Why would we need to wait two more weeks out in order to see actual effects from two weeks ago?

33
General Comments / Re: The CHAZ
« on: June 11, 2020, 11:51:02 AM »
Musician Raz Simone, emcee of the free speech circle at 12th and Pine on Tuesday, called for long-term occupation.

“This is not Coachella,” Simone said, but an opportunity for demonstrators to make it what they want. “Bring your sleeping bags and tents. We here.”


The good news is it won't be that much different from many existing areas downtown. Already tons of tents, shopping carts, and sleeping bags. Oh, and quite a lot of feces and syringes. See ya, Seattle - enjoy your new freedom.

34
General Comments / Re: The CHAZ
« on: June 11, 2020, 11:44:18 AM »
That said, if I was in Trump's position, I'd simply sit back and subtly mock the Mayor of Seattle and Governor of Washington, as well as the Anti-Fa sympathizers, and let them deal with it aside from periodic offers of federal help resolving it. (No threats to do it for them)

For the first time in 20 years, my wife and I are seriously talking about moving. The PNW has transformed over the past 10-15 years. And not in a good way. It's definitely a result of leadership and policy evolution.

35
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 09, 2020, 11:12:15 AM »
Cancers kill more black people than police interactions.  We should cure all cancers before making any attempt to address police violence.

If the country was protesting about why so many minorities were dying from diseases, I'd agree with you big time.  Focus on the diseases that cause the most harm, kind of makes sense right?

But we're agreed the current protests are focusing on disproportionate harm of a minority ultimately resulting from violence, not disease - right? I'm open to arguments on why specific causes of the violence should get more attention than others, but trying to shift the entire category to other causes of harm, like disease, seems disingenuous.

36
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 09, 2020, 10:49:43 AM »
Quote
Bloody Chicago recorded 18 murders on May 31, making it the city’s deadliest day in 60 years.

The dubious milestone was reached on a day Chicago was roiled by another round of protests and looting following the Memorial Day death of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis.

The 18 deaths tallied by the University of Chicago Crime Lab made May 31, 2020 the single-most violent day in six decades, the Chicago Sun-Times reported Monday. The Crime Lab numbers go back only to 1961.

Most, if not all, were black. Not a single protest, no signs with their names, no massive funerals with celebrity caskets. In fact, this barely made the news at all.

Interesting that such arguments aren't changing the narrative this time.  A subtle  blame the victim argument, that excuses police using excessive deadly force on those that pose no threat to them.

It's more about proportionality not seeming to matter. If the main concern was actually addressing disproportionate harm to a particular minority, it would follow that there would be massive attention (to crunch's point, protests, demand for change, etc.) around the area where it's overwhelmingly larger than police-caused harm. So we have to accept it's not about seeking change based on the actual scale of harm, but external injustice as the specific cause - regardless of scale. I think it's ok to admit that?

37
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 09, 2020, 12:47:27 AM »
If, as the WHO now says, people who don’t show symptoms are extremely unlikely to spread the virus under any conditions, should everyone still wear masks? It was never to protect the wearer -  so no fever, no cough, no anything - should you wear a mask?  Perhaps yes, as a continued symbol of respect?

38
General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 08, 2020, 08:39:45 PM »
I watched the Buffalo video and have two thoughts:

1. One of the police should definitely have provided assistance when it was clear the old guy was hurt.
2. Pursuing and physically getting in the grill of a cop who's in the middle of a moving defensive formation is an IQ test fail. That's not protesting, that's stupidity.

39
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 08, 2020, 06:31:45 PM »
Quote
I wasn't really going there, but it became political by definition the moment medical officials weighed in and said that protests (of certain, approved causes) superseded mitigation and virus risks.

Is their a tipping point to that? If "4 Out of 5" Dentists Agree and the disagreeing voice is that of a idiot does the voice of the idiot the one have more weight? Why is it the voices of the idiots that we go? Is it all in the cause of certainty or our political righteousness?. What happened to discernment
I'm so tired of this crap

I'm not really sure what you're saying here. I posted earlier about 1000 medical professionals who said they supported certain large gatherings despite COVID risks. Are you saying it's just a small number of crackpots (the 5th dentist) that has this opinion?

40
General Comments / Re: Who will be next to speak out about Trump?
« on: June 08, 2020, 05:16:31 PM »
Asymptomatic has five different meanings, which is why there is confusion.

There is 'paucisymptomatic' - people report not having symptoms even though they in fact have mild symptoms - 'it is just allergies', etc.  This is when people respond to questionaires and report not having symptoms.

There is 'presymptomatic' - this is having come in contact with someone and caught the virus, yet not having a viral load sufficient to cause noticable symptoms.

There is atypical presentation - not having the definitive symptom of a fever spike.

There are false positives - the person is 'asymptomatic' because they were never actually infected.

There is truely asymptomatic - a person who never develops clinical symptoms.

Most 'asymptomatic' individuals usually a false positive, paucisymptomatic, or presymptomatic, and most of the rest are atypical presentation, there is almost no truely asymptomatic.

Survey's will get 'asymptomatic' responses for paucisymptomatic and false positives.
Testing in hospitals will get presymptomatic, false positives, and atypical presentations.

Which meaning(s) do you think the WHO meant when they said that transmission from asymptomatic people was "very rare.”?

41
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 08, 2020, 04:53:49 PM »
Millions of people across the country have been standing shoulder to shoulder, loudly and repeatedly shouting. Some wore masks, some not.  We're told that mass crowds and shouting/singing is one of the most transmissible virus environments. This means that sometime in the next 10-ish days we should be seeing spikes of tens of thousands of new infections and corresponding deaths.

Does anyone disagree with this?

I think it's pretty likely, but I think it's somewhat weird that whether people are protesting with or without masks is somehow making attempts to mitigate and control the spread of coronavirus a political issue.

I wasn't really going there, but it became political by definition the moment medical officials weighed in and said that protests (of certain, approved causes) superseded mitigation and virus risks.

42
General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: June 08, 2020, 04:06:40 PM »
Millions of people across the country have been standing shoulder to shoulder, loudly and repeatedly shouting. Some wore masks, some not.  We're told that mass crowds and shouting/singing is one of the most transmissible virus environments. This means that sometime in the next 10-ish days we should be seeing spikes of tens of thousands of new infections and corresponding deaths.

Does anyone disagree with this?

43
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 08, 2020, 12:05:41 PM »
I don't think a "new kind of police" does much.

Ultimately I don't think there's a 'fix" for something that's inherent in humans. Of the millions of police interactions every year, a tiny percentage have bad outcomes. Similarly, a tiny percentage of cops are bad humans. Lucky for us, those outliers can now be captured on a phone and set on repeat.

I'm all for trying to vet out bad cops or ideally not recruit them in the first place, but if our expectation is something resembling airline safety stats, we're in for a disappointment. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be in continuous improvement mode - that should be the status quo.

44
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 08, 2020, 11:32:07 AM »
If the Minneapolis city council really does disband the police, as they claim they want to do, it's going to be apocalyptic.

Wow, you really think it will mark the end of the universe and all of creation?

Google apocalyptic covid. The media has changed the definition of the word so it seems fair game to follow suit.

45
General Comments / Re: Defund the police
« on: June 08, 2020, 10:51:27 AM »
It won't be surprising to see official responses that are as vague as the demand itself. I agree that in those cities where rioters were essentially unopposed, it doesn't make sense to invest in equipment designed to control those kinds of situations, so "defunding" there shouldn't make any kind of material impact.

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General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 07, 2020, 04:23:01 PM »

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General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 07, 2020, 03:28:32 PM »
The demands are pretty simple, and you'll see it on all the signs. Equal treatment. Equal treatment by race, and equal accountability for police using violence.

Ok, what would equal treatment look like from a police brutality perspective? If the majority of police killing blacks are themselves black, does that mean we should shift focus from race to police training and policies in general?

Quote
In Buffalo, a cop knocked a man to the ground who was not a threat, cracked his skull, and then stepped right over him. Why? Because he was disobedient. The cops have been charged, and 57 other Buffalo cops withdrew from special duty assignments in support of the cop that broke somebody's head for standing there when he was told to go home.

Was that incident a result of police inequality/racism in your opinion?

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General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:51:26 AM »
The headline is a shallow gloss over the story, which itself is a superficial account of events. I'm not seeing irony as much as not very good reporting.

Fair

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General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:50:09 AM »
ScottF

The issue being put forth is how minorities face disproportionate attention and response from a police force that has an aggressive and arrogant culture that also kills innocent whites.

That perhaps both the racial bias and the police culture issue  are something that should be looked at.

I'm kind of skeptical that you didn't actually get that, but on the off chance you didn't, that's the entire point of peaceful protests.

Some hippie inconvienced you with a sign somewhere, it annoyed you, and you went out asking questions on why they're doing it. You got an answer whether you agree or not. And that's why protestors shut down roads.

Realized I didn't respond to this. You're correct to be skeptical that I didn't get what the issue is because I do - and it wasn't the question I'm asking at all. If I ask your hypothetical hippie above why are you out here and they say it's to raise awareness, I'll say fair enough, awareness is an important first step.

It doesn't seem unreasonable to then ask "what would you like to see done to make things better for this issue?". Per my original post, the Iraq protester would immediately say get out of Iraq. PETA would say ban meat, etc.

My main point is this: if you can't articulate a cogent thought on what you'd like to actually see done in the real world, we're no longer having an adult conversation.  At least "burn it all down and see what happens" is an actionable idea, but that (thankfully) doesn't appear to be part of a peaceful protester's action plan.

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General Comments / Re: Protestors vs. Rioters
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:31:00 AM »
BBC headline: “27 police officers injured during largely peaceful anti-racism protests in London”

The good news is apart from the injuries themselves, those 27 police officers were largely uninjured.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-london-52954899?__twitter_impression=true


What do you make of that?

I think the wording of the headline is unintentionally ironic and indicates a bias. You?

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