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Messages - TheDrake

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1
General Comments / Re: gun free zones, cause and effect
« on: October 14, 2018, 09:30:40 AM »
I don't think statistics are reliable with that sample size.

2
When the police came, the men who did the rape said: 'This is the man who did it,' and I was taken to the police station," Pili says.

So falsely accused, but either by the other suspects or corroborated by the suspects. No clear relationship to wealth.

3
General Comments / Re: Invest in automation
« on: October 12, 2018, 11:37:45 AM »
You can't talk about average households when the original question was framed as "all of us". You have to talk about the lowest 10% or fewer and how their lives have improved. It doesn't really matter that the average family has two cars when most of those 10% have zero. (allowing for the fact that some portion don't need or want a car anyway).

Those lower 10% do benefit from new services, shared infrastructure, and other universal benefits, but it is hardly some great celebration.

As far as smart devices go, I guess its nice that they can have access to webMD in lieu of healthcare.

4
General Comments / Re: "The Fed Has Gone Crazy!"
« on: October 11, 2018, 03:28:27 PM »
Good points. Yes, wages get a lot more complicated because each sector and job skill grow at different rates. Scarcity in healthcare services can raise wages and salaries there, while leaving things the same otherwise. The closer you push to full employment, the more you start to have shortfalls in high demand areas. Like the bidding war during the bubble for engineers and they were handing out five figure signing bonuses to get people in the door and fuel growth.

There are also lots of jobs where salaries are even less impactful on product price. SG&A, R&D, etc.

But wage growth is an inflation driver, if you look at CPI vs wage growth.

5
General Comments / Re: "The Fed Has Gone Crazy!"
« on: October 11, 2018, 02:35:19 PM »
The fed started moving interest rates back toward normal at the end of 2015, because the recovery began independently of a change in administration.

Savings should be rewarded, and all income investments will rise with the fed, including muni & corp bonds.

Rising wages accomplish nothing but inflation when it happens across the board. Imagine that tomorrow everybody's wages double. Wow that's pretty cool! Until companies have to raise prices to maintain their margins. Not cool. A guy flipping burgers today shouldn't make any more real wages than the guy who did it in the 1950s. Same job, same effort, same skill, same pay. Anything else is an aberration.

Inflation does have a scary feedback momentum, it was a killer in the 70s.

Quote
The idea that the “Phillips curve” represented a longer-term trade-off between unemployment, which was very damaging to economic well-being, and inflation, which was sometimes thought of as more of an inconvenience, was an attractive assumption for policymakers who hoped to forcefully pursue the dictates of the Employment Act.2  But the stability of the Phillips curve was a fateful assumption, one that economists Edmund Phelps (1967) and Milton Friedman (1968) warned against. Said Phelps “f the statical ‘optimum’ is chosen, it is reasonable to suppose that the participants in product and labour markets will learn to expect inflation…and that, as a consequence of their rational, anticipatory behaviour, the Phillips Curve will gradually shift upward...” (Phelps 1967; Friedman 1968). In other words, the trade-off between lower unemployment and more inflation that policymakers may have wanted to pursue would likely be a false bargain, requiring ever higher inflation to maintain

So the crazy thing is that Trump wants to make America 1980 again.

2015 article

rate hikes are good for seniors

federal reserve essay on inflation

6
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 11, 2018, 11:56:20 AM »
I'd say the medicare statement has always been true but misleading. Private medicare payouts were reduced by the amount claimed. Whether that led to any reduction in services is debatable, but unlikely.

two ways that medicare costs were reduced by ACA

7
General Comments / Re: "The Fed Has Gone Crazy!"
« on: October 11, 2018, 11:48:47 AM »
Trump never met a dollar he didn't want to borrow, so of course he loves low interest rates. One of the reasons why a President is supposed to step away from business ownership. Is he saying this to help his business, or the country? People who are actually trying to save money, on the other hand, will welcome some rising rates. Remember when you would buy an 18 month certificate of deposit? It's back, baby. People can now get 2.5% at zero risk, compared to the last few years when it was below 1%.

In addition, the federal government in a bipartisan way loves to spend money we don't have, and US Treasuries are going to make borrowing more expense on the national debt. Over two years, 10 year Treasuries are up from 1.5 to near 3%, and short term Tbills popped from 0% to 1.5%.

8
General Comments / Re: Invest in automation
« on: October 11, 2018, 11:35:52 AM »
We can't even agree that everyone should be able to get an antibiotic when needed, so UBI is phenomenally far away. Good luck suckers, I'm getting entrenched in the machine learning world so our AI overlords may keep me as a pet...

9
Sadly, wealthy or powerful people who think they can grab people by the pussy and get away with it are not hard to find. Probably a lot easier to find than their false accusers. Monica was sexually harassed regardless of how willing she might have been. Keep your cigar in the box and you will probably be just fine.

Lower levels of power, like middle management, are probably similar. Don't say or do inappropriate things. All sexual topics are inappropriate things. All touching beyond a handshake is inappropriate. Is a company going to settle? Sadly, they probably will and they probably keep the serial douchebag around, and install remote control door locks for him.

I have never directly seen anybody accused who wasn't crossing a line - anecdotal, I know. I have seen many instances of crossing a line go unpunished.

10
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 09, 2018, 02:56:41 PM »
The fact that he made up some random stuff about a political opponent is dull. Yes, it is a terrible set of lies about what happened in an egregious way. You win velcro.

11
Truth is a broad concept.

I expect politicians to make false promises. I expect them to exaggerate problems that they think deserve a solution in terms of framing. I expect them to feign interest in Iowans for a brief period every four years. Maybe the middle one applies to OpEds - which are published by a news organization.

I don't expect politicians to make claims of events that never happened, like Hillary claiming to be shot at - although the more I learn about science about memories shifting from 3rd to 1st person, the less upset I am about that particular one. For a news organization, this is unforgivable.

I expect that when an error is made, either by a politician or a news organization, there should be a visible retraction and apology.

I expect that if a politician or a news organization states an objective fact, like prices have risen 15% over 5 years, that it should be accurate.

I can't pick either/or. My standards are largely the same regardless of who is doing the telling.

12
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 09, 2018, 11:19:03 AM »
I don't know why you think I'm angry, I don't think I used any microaggressions. I just think you are wrong, and I've attempted to clarify why. You don't have to worry about pissing me off. I invite you to call me out if I defend a misleading statement as technically true. I reserve the right to argue why I don't think something is misleading.

13
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 08, 2018, 07:06:36 PM »
I'm sorry that you can't see my point. We'll come back to this the next time somebody you dislike says something misleading that is technically true.

14
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 08, 2018, 06:04:50 PM »
Quote
You can try all the spin you want but the bottom line is Trump is telling the truth at this moment in time.

So what's the limitation on describing that trend - anything at all? Couple of days? Hours? The kind of standard you seem to be setting is what is known as quibbling rather than lying in various honor codes, especially military ones. It involves setting up a technicality where you could claim you are not lying in order to get away with misleading statements.

It's like a story I heard attributed to Pravda about a bicycle race and said that Russia came in second while the US came in second to last. All true on a technicality in a two country race, but most people would describe the US as winning if they are being forthright.

15
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 08, 2018, 01:14:57 PM »
So if Pelosi were talking about how healthcare costs had gone down in the past couple of weeks, after a massive jump a few months earlier....? I'm sure you'd get right behind that characterization.

16
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 08, 2018, 12:37:19 PM »
A dead cat bounce is not "going up". In the context of describing the impact of his policies, Trump can't reasonably mean that an end of September phenomenon is caused by his policy, which had its impact in June causing a 20% drop. If you just zoom your chart out to a six month time frame you'll have a better picture.

He in fact knew that his policies were hurting soybean prices because he supported a bailout package for them in July. In August, this solidified into 3.6 billion for the soybean producers.

Now he could mean soybean prices + the $1.65 per bushel he's going to hand them.

17
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 06, 2018, 03:28:23 PM »
There is a difference between outrage and petulence.

18
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 05, 2018, 01:19:31 PM »
I believe the normal response for people whose character is under attack in hearings is somewhere between humble apology and eyeroll smirk, not angry badger.

19
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 05, 2018, 12:55:20 PM »
Quote
Others were just better at cloaking this. Would you rather this be true and hidden, or true and exposed?

I'd prefer a Nixon to a Trump, if that makes it clear. Nixon was a bare knuckle brawler, full on racist, vindictive to his enemies, paranoid, and nowhere near as divisive to the country because he closed the door first.

20
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 05, 2018, 12:40:29 PM »
Quote
It was nothing but a performance calculated to energize his base and get them out to vote. It was ugly and his followers should demand better. 

I call BS. Trump doesn't do this stuff out of calculation. He just reacts and rants involuntarily. Kind of like the Incredible Hulk, he gets mad and it just sort of happens.

21
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 05, 2018, 12:37:54 PM »
I don't think he is "brilliantly in control of the base". I think he just does what he does, and happens to be in the right place and time to resonate with a large number of people. He doesn't calculate that its time to mock someone because it will reinforce his support. He doesn't chafe at admitting fault for anything because it could undermine his support.

He's accidentally in control of his base. He didn't craft his messaging based on what people might like or not like, he just blurted out a bunch of things he thought, and had a bunch of people agree with him.

"Winning" involves never admitting fault, always claiming victory no matter how dubious, and most importantly running down anyone who even mildly disagrees with him.

He's not a master manipulator, he's a bully and not that masterful at even that. He's no Rockefeller. He's a cheap knockoff throwback to those times when all management and leadership theory for the past 50 years indicates worse outcomes with that style. He's like a regional manager of a chain restaurant in everything form his volatility to his trashy vocabulary. Bullies and people who admire bullying as strength probably give him strong support.

22
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: October 05, 2018, 12:23:28 PM »
And Musk just can't help himself.

Quote
Just want to that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work. And the name change is so on point!

23
General Comments / Invest in automation
« on: October 05, 2018, 11:35:03 AM »
We just saw Amazon raise their minimum wage (while slyly dumping RSU compensation...).

Bezos will probably fully transform the employees into cybermen soon anyway, they've already installed the vibrating wrist band. So I'd guess this is an empty PR gesture, and there are prototypes in labs somewhere that solve the final warehouse automation issue.

Amazon is also launching supermarkets with most employees eliminated.

Sanders is now targeting McDonald's with his wage shaming. Fast food restaurants are already exploring kiosk ordering, AI drive through ordering. It will yet be a while before the cooking is automated, but not forever.

Farming is becoming increasingly automated.

Increasing the minimum wage is going to be a pyrrhic victory, as it will only accelerate the rush to automation.

Similarly, the crackdown on illegal immigration will do the same with farms.

It's a good time to be a robot.

24
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 05, 2018, 10:49:14 AM »
Trump is stupid. He does not have the best words. His strategy rarely works. I've read one of his books, "Think Like a Champion". It's the antithesis to actual good management practices. The fact that he's an idiot on purpose does not mean that he's not an idiot, and I do think he can't discern reality anymore because he's held it in such low regard that he no longer cares what is true and what is not. Read Woodward's book, which describes his advisors trying to explain basic economic theory to him. It's not some show for the masses.

25
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 04, 2018, 01:34:44 PM »
Reports indicate no corroboration of ford's account, which we mostly knew would be the case without the useless FBI investigation.

26
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 04, 2018, 06:46:48 AM »
Ultimately any term could mean anything in a localized context. What will be interesting is if anyone comes forward within his circle and says that is absolutely not what they meant by those terms. Of course, that person will likely lean Democrat, and then get accused of being a paid political operative.

27
General Comments / Re: Misleading or False Claims by Trump
« on: October 03, 2018, 07:09:04 PM »
binary Trump again. He lacks the ability to discern between a few misleading statements and running around all the time doing it, and embellishing it until the amplifier goes to 11.

28
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 03, 2018, 04:37:02 PM »
Quote
It's hard to imagine TheDrake that you could have a legitimate basis to claim he perjured himself in saying he never blacked out.  You'd have to have proof of an event occurring that he doesn't remember (which if he denies the event is impossible to determine if he's lying).  In this case, we DON'T have proof the event occurred and the accusation is uncorroborated and not terribly credible.

Anyone who runs around boofing with his DKE pals is going to get blackout drunk. No, I can't point to a specific detail or a person making the claim that they talked to him the morning after a party and he didn't remember a large chunk of time. It strains plausibility to the breaking point.

As for the credibility of an anonymous ex-boyfriend recounting his experiences with her 20-25 years ago... and one whose own statement describes that she cheated on him and used his credit card after they broke up? That doesn't really prove perjury either.

29
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 03, 2018, 01:46:14 PM »
Let's not forget at least one other lies to go on the pile, that Kavanaugh said he never got blackout drunk. And that the devil's triangle was a drinking game.

30
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 01, 2018, 06:49:17 PM »
Just because somebody gets drunk and has frequent consensual sex does not alter whether or not they get raped or how believable they are.

Just as somebody can get raped by their spouse after 10 years of consensual sex.

Sex workers can very much be raped even if they went to a room with the intent to have sex in exchange for cash.

Even if Ford had gotten loaded, tripped on LSD, and had sex with Bret previously on several occasions, he could still have tried to rape her.

31
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: October 01, 2018, 03:20:02 PM »
The guy wasn't a rescue diver (widely misreported statement in the press).  The guy apparently lives at a town that is famous for pedophiles to move to.  Musk seems to indicate that he had some investigation work done, and that was the basis of the statement.

Ok, he's a cave diver who didn't do rescues, but still weighed in on Musk's plan. Interviewed because he lives in the area and explored the caves in question extensively.

Musk is still unhinged if in response to a negative comment he hires investigators to find some way to get back at the guy.

32
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: October 01, 2018, 11:49:37 AM »
Quote
Over the weekend, Musk agreed to a settlement with the SEC that requires him to step down as Tesla's chairman and pay a $20 million fine.

Under the settlement, which requires court approval, Musk will be allowed to stay as CEO but must leave his role as chairman of the board within 45 days. He cannot seek reelection for three years, according to court filings.

I'm sure the fine will make all the investors that lost money feel much better.

33
General Comments / Re: What Deals Has Trump Made as President?
« on: October 01, 2018, 08:22:15 AM »
Now we have the details on Canada.

Quote
Canada agreed to provide U.S. dairy farmers access to about 3.5 percent of its approximately $16 billion annual domestic dairy market, Canadian sources said, adding that the Canadian government is prepared to offer compensation to dairy farmers hurt by the deal.

Under the agreement Canada has agreed to eliminate its Class 6 and Class 7 milk categories and associated pricing schedules for skim milk, skim milk proteins and other components and ultrafiltered milk, within 6 months after the USMCA goes into force.

U.S. farmers said those schedules had effectively pushed them out of the Canadian dairy market.

So we get the ability to dump some subsidized dairy into Canadian markets, and they keep their dairy farmers from feeling the pain.

Quote
The deal will preserve a trade dispute settlement mechanism that Canada fought hard to maintain to protect its lumber industry and other sectors from U.S. anti-dumping tariffs.

No big changes here, although we know that Trump probably won't rely on that mechanism, he'll just threaten various tariffs outside any framework whenever he perceives something as unfair.

Quote
A side-letter to the agreement showed that Trump preserved the ability to impose threatened 25 percent global tariffs on autos while largely exempting passenger vehicles, pickup trucks and auto parts from Canada and Mexico.

If Trump imposes so-called “Section 232” autos tariffs on national security grounds, Mexico and Canada would each get a tariff-free passenger vehicle quota of 2.6 million passenger vehicles exported to the United States annually, well above their current export levels.

Yup, national security, sure.

Quote
The deal set a 5-year transition period after the agreement enters into force for the regional value content requirement for autos to increase to 75 percent, from a current 62.5 percent.

Not insignificant, and there's a little more than that. So auto workers benefit, and cars get more expensive.

Overall, I'm relieved that this brinksmanship ended without a serious drag on North American trade. I can even say comfortably that it's not a worse deal than before. I don't think it was worth all the drama and histrionics, but at least it is settled and should have no problem rolling through Congress.

34
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 01, 2018, 08:01:36 AM »
Kavanaugh has made claims about the witnesses that are false. He asserted that several of them refuted her statement, whereas their comments were that they were unaware of what was going on in a room upstairs. Some of those witnesses have publicly rejected the interpretation that Kavanaugh put on their comments.

Actually, they have said they don't remember the party, not that they were unaware of what was happening upstairs, unless these are different witnesses from the ones listed here in an overview of potential witnesses that the FBI may speak with.

Quote
Initially, it appears, the bureau will talk to people who could shed light on Christine Blasey Ford's allegation that a drunken Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her at a house party when they were teenagers. This is expected to include Mark Judge, whom Ford alleges was in the room at the time, and two other people Ford said were at the party, Patrick J. Smyth and Leland Keyser, sources familiar with the matter tell CNN. Judge has already said that he had no memory of any alleged incident involving Ford and Kavanaugh, and Smyth and Keyser have said they don't remember the party. However, Keyser, a friend of Ford's, does not refute the allegation and has said she believes the account, her lawyer said in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Quote
"In the legal context, here is my bottom line: A 'he said, she said' case is incredibly difficult to prove," Mitchell wrote. "But this case is even weaker than that. Dr. Ford identified other witnesses to the event, and those witnesses either refuted her allegations or failed to corroborate them.

cnn article

True, failing to corroborate isn't the same as refuting, but it is pretty much the same as not having a "witness" at all when they said they weren't there to witness anything (by their own words).

35
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: October 01, 2018, 07:51:46 AM »
apa on polygraph

Quote
The accuracy (i.e., validity) of polygraph testing has long been controversial. An underlying problem is theoretical: There is no evidence that any pattern of physiological reactions is unique to deception. An honest person may be nervous when answering truthfully and a dishonest person may be non-anxious. Also, there are few good studies that validate the ability of polygraph procedures to detect deception. As Dr. Saxe and Israeli psychologist Gershon Ben-Shahar (1999) note, "it may, in fact, be impossible to conduct a proper validity study." In real-world situations, it's very difficult to know what the truth is.

Which has to make you wonder why they are routinely used for federal employees, and growing.

Quote
“The general consensus seems to be that [it’s] an effective scare tactic,” Bigley said. “It gets people to cough up details about their lives that they wouldn’t otherwise do.”

This certainly wouldn't be the case with a self-clearance test as the one administered to Ford, as it has been described.

36
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: September 30, 2018, 08:01:29 PM »
Musk has always been eccentric, but lately he's coming unglued. I mean, calling a rescue diver a pedophile because he didn't like musks half baked submarine idea?

At this point I wouldn't invest in any of his ventures, I wouldn't trust any of his products, and I wouldn't be likely to work at his companies.

37
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: September 29, 2018, 07:47:17 PM »
Don't get me wrong, musk should be forced to pay a serious seven figure fine. But I've seen a lot of deals announced that feel through, so to me it matters a lot if he made this up out of whole cloth versus a premature announcement of something real.

38
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: September 28, 2018, 02:27:56 PM »
Touchy. Sounds like somebody lost money shorting Tesla.

39
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: September 28, 2018, 02:05:55 PM »
Quote
We need to stop exchanges from raising prices on investors, says SEC Commissioner   We need to stop exchanges from raising prices on investors, says SEC Commissioner 
9:17 AM ET Wed, 26 Sept 2018 | 05:26
Federal regulators need to provide more information around insider trading rules as they pertain to company news posted on social media platforms, SEC commissioner Robert Jackson said on CNBC on Wednesday.

"If you're wondering whether it might be time for us to clarify this, I am, too," Jackson said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "We have issued some guidance in the area, but it's quite old."

The Securities and Exchange Commission defines illegal insider trading as buying or selling a stock based on "material, nonpublic information."

With many corporations and CEOs releasing company information on Twitter, there's been debate on Wall Street and Washington whether the platform allows information to be disseminated widely enough to be in the public domain.

That might help him out... the SEC is vague about whether twitter counts - at least in a different context. If they say musk was manipulating the market, it seems like they'd have to admit that its not insider trading to act on a tweet?

40
General Comments / Re: Elon Musk's Problems
« on: September 28, 2018, 01:43:01 PM »
I think he definitely violated something. But unless he sold any stock or somebody else closely related did at the elevated price, I'm not sure the penalty fits. The thing to get him in the most trouble is that specificity of price, along with the certainty.

He'll probably pull a Trump and get off with a fine.

41
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 27, 2018, 09:20:05 AM »
Story is pretty thin so far. Two unidentified men who have only talked to Senate Republicans?

If they were paid off, I hope it was a lot because I can imagine that's the end of their careers. Unless they are going to dispute the details of the encounter as ford tells it. Of course Ford is so vague about details, just about anybody could claim responsibility if they wanted to. They don't have to prove they were at the party that night, because we don't know where or when it was.

42
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 27, 2018, 08:24:43 AM »
There are legal and moral components to being a judge. After all, many of the most important supreme court cases are to resolve inherent conflict between different laws. Or to create certainty out of broad guidelines, like the 4th amendment cases that ask "what should be considered reasonable?".

Furthermore, one might think that a justice who were indifferent to the right of women to consent would also be unsympathetic to women's rights in other areas. This would weigh on their ability to fairly apply the law. Of course, I think it is much easier and wiser to study a judges prior rulings and opinions to know how they will interpret the law than to examine his behavior at prep school keg parties.

The other part is intangible. Is this someone we want to be enshrined as one of the best people our nation has to offer? Someone who will be written into the history books in a way that a DC Circuit judge would not be?

Is a cloud of suspicion enough to outweigh an entire career? I guess we'll find out.

43
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 26, 2018, 06:31:06 PM »
All the sources I can find state pretty much the same thing, this one states it the most clearly. Emphasis mine.

Quote
What Do You Have To Prove?
There are two things you have to prove to be true in order to win a case of defamation of character in the court of law. First of all, you have to prove without a doubt that what was said or written about you is not true. Once you have proved that the statement is, in fact, false you have to prove that the other person said the false statement with the intent of causing you some form of harm.

source

44
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 26, 2018, 04:37:40 PM »
So - yeah, you as the plaintiff do have to prove the statement is false. The burden is on K.

You can't sue someone for slander and force them to prove the statement is true. Her lack of specificity makes it extremely hard to prove false.

It would get dismissed immediately.

45
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 26, 2018, 02:24:45 PM »
I don't believe they are fabricating stories deliberately. It's a wildly small pool of people for that - there are only 500 students enrolled over all four years (today, anyway). Half or more of them would be men. Many of them would not have had any interactions.

46
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 26, 2018, 01:34:04 PM »
The most bizarre thing yet is that apparently Kavanaugh kept a calendar for 36 years.

47
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 25, 2018, 11:54:53 AM »
And if memory were so reliable - wouldn't she remember what house she was in? Who invited her to the party? What year it was? You would think so. Why is it that her memory is so selective about this traumatic event that the only detail she can remember is his name with perfect clarity? I'm not saying she is wrong, I'm just saying that memory is unreliable. That's why James Comey wrote his contemporaneous notes on interactions with Trump as soon as possible.

I think you know the studies, Donald, that detail the fallibility of memory - you're a pretty educated dude.

To say nothing of the fact that as it seems, these details came out during therapy. It's not unheard of that a therapist can introduce memories in the process of trying to help someone.

Quote
Although memory can be hazy at times, it is often assumed that memories of violent or otherwise stressful events are so well-encoded that they are largely indelible and that confidently retrieved memories are likely to be accurate. However, findings from basic psychological research and neuroscience studies indicate that memory is a reconstructive process that is susceptible to distortion. In the courtroom, even minor memory distortions can have severe consequences that are in part driven by common misunderstandings about memory, e.g. expecting memory to be more veridical than it may actually be.

The Neuroscience of Memory: Implications for the Courtroom

But if you want to be dismissive of science as well as my personal story, knock yourself out.

48
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 25, 2018, 11:45:15 AM »
I think a lot of people can remember a lot of things. I don't think she had a bad dream, but can she be absolutely sure it was Kavanaugh and not the other guy that was the aggressor? Let's not forget that based on her therapists notes, she wasn't even sure if there were 2 or 4 men in the room.

49
General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 24, 2018, 06:59:11 PM »
You know, I am wondering if I could reasonably testify to very much I saw in college 26 years ago. A blank slate is a dangerous thing. I certainly couldn't relate with any certainty who was at which particular party. I could name people I had been to parties with, and antics that went on but not who exactly did what.

I only had one incident really stand out in my mind. I wound up picked up for public intoxication, it was certainly the only time I had been to jail. It was highly formative in terms of negative reinforcement, and I dwelled on it often and somewhat continuously to this day. I know vaguely some of the people who were there because it was a party involving some fellow ROTC cadets. I couldn't name even one with absolute certainty. If somebody suggested somebody however, I might suddenly start remembering they were there. Could I pick out the host of the party? Not without prompting. And even then, I was intoxicated (thus the PI). Memory isn't the best.

What I remember most was how I felt. My frustration, fear, anger, shame, and more. I remember the aftermath vividly the next day. But that evening? I couldn't tell you the kind of music playing, the rough location of the party, the time I left. About the only thing I can say is the street I was crossing at the time I was spotted and detained. Although I'd still have to look the name up, because I'm not even positive about that.

There were probably a couple of other events that I could pull together some details from, but my point is this - could I ever trust it to make an accusation against any of those people? Could anyone ever believe me without any corroboration whatsoever? Especially if I had been seeing one classmate's name and photo splashed on every news site for a month or more?

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General Comments / Re: Corey Booker and Kavanaugh Hearing
« on: September 24, 2018, 03:18:44 PM »
This just in, a woman's descendants allege that in 1770 Ben Franklin did indeed tug upon her petticoats in a wanton manner most unseemly. They do now agitate that Franklin's name should be stricken from all copies of the Constitution, and that his likeness in portraiture be removed at once from the University of Pennsylvania.

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