Topics

1

General Comments / Musk and Twitter

« on: July 12, 2022, 10:29:42 PM »

Reading the lawsuit and the acquisition agreement, I don't see how Musk will get out of being forced to purchase Twitter at the 54.20 price.

Here is the lawsuit for those interested,

https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/twitter-lawsuit-against-musk.pdf

I simply can't believe the terms he agreed to.

Someone suggested that given he signed on 4/20 - that he might well have been high.

2

General Comments / machine learning and creativity

« on: June 03, 2022, 08:38:10 AM »

I really expected that creative jobs would be the very last things that AI would become good at, that they would be the 'hardest' nuts to crack.  Turns out I was wrong.

DALL-E2 and Imagen are turning out extraordinary work.  To the level where they could definitely replace a large number of concept artists.

Have a look at,

https://imagen.research.google/

https://openai.com/dall-e-2/

It takes about 10 seconds on a good computer, to turn out a work comparable to a concept artist working for a day.  They can also do inpainting (replacement of part of a image), or other modifications/variants.

They can't replace all aspects of a professional commercial artist right now, but to me, what has already been accomplished is shockingly good.

3

General Comments / ornery - keep getting the apache page on a different computer

« on: June 01, 2022, 09:36:11 PM »

Whenver I attempt to visit ornery on a different computer with chrome it shows the apache testing page.  Tried clearing cache, etc, not sure who I should 'report' this to, so figured I'd post and see if others were having the same issue or not.

4

General Comments / Extraordinary incompetence or wicked sense of humor

« on: April 26, 2022, 06:01:33 PM »

Someone in the FSB was either mindbogglingly incompetent or has a wicked sense of humor and is willing to risk Putins rath,

planted evidence of an assassination attempt included 3 copies of 'The Sims' (presumably someone wanted sim cards) and a book inscription with the signature "Signature unclear".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video-games/2022/04/26/russian-assassination-sims-3/

Malicious link removed and replaced at original poster's request. - OrneryMod

5

General Comments / humaniform robotics

« on: February 18, 2022, 01:55:13 PM »

So this is extremely impressive, very expressive design humanoid robot design.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXra4uJZMMI

Either the planned responses repretoire is a lot larger than I'd expect, or they have an actor who is using a vr and mocap system to do realtime responses.

Either one is impressive.  Though the second is a bit misleading (and by far the most likely).

6

General Comments / 'AlphaCode' - better than 54% of competitive programmers

« on: February 02, 2022, 05:37:55 PM »

So, I'm thinking lots of low quality programmers could be out of work in the near future (10ish years or so).

https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce

54th percentile on a competitive programming site vs people who regularly compete, is probably in the 70th-80th percentile of people who program for a living.

Programming isn't just novel program implementation but it is a crucial part of the programmer skill set.

7

General Comments / Rule 404 - character evidence

« on: November 13, 2021, 03:07:14 PM »

Currently character evidence (including prior acts and convictions) is generally inadmissible by the prosecution under rule 404,

https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/fre/rule_404

https://www2.law.temple.edu/aer/they-did-something-similar-before-prior-acts-character-and-self-defense/

Personally I think it should be more broadly admissible.

Interestingly it is not inadmissable in all states, for instance

The testimony – putting aside the concern over remoteness – is permissible in Pennsylvania.  The Commonwealth’s Evidence rules specifically allow proof of acts – whether there was a conviction, the act was charged criminally, or the incident was just alleged.  Why?  Pennsylvania Rule of Evidence 405(b)(2) specifically addresses this:

In a criminal case, when character or a character trait of an alleged victim is admissible under Pa.R.E. 404(a)(2)(B) the defendant may prove the character or character trait by specific instances of conduct.

But would it be allowed in federal trials?  The answer is “not as in the Pennsylvania prosecution, but maybe sometimes.”

https://www2.law.temple.edu/aer/they-did-something-similar-before-prior-acts-character-and-self-defense/

8

General Comments / Tesla FSD Beta 10.3

« on: October 24, 2021, 03:37:02 PM »

I've been following the development of Tesla and Waymo's 'self driving' systems.

Tesla seems to make 'two steps forward, one step back'.  The seem to have definitely 'overfit' to parts of the California area - the 10.3 beta version seems to have partially addressed that - the 10.2 beta had a distribution to a much wider geographic distribution than prior betas (which limited to access to less than 100 people outside of Tesla).  So road layouts different from the cities it drives in most can confuse it.   Also 10.2 had very aggressive acceleration when pulling out from lights, and did California rolls - 10.3 much less aggressive (more natural speed), and whether to complete stop or not is configurable.

Some night driving and driving directly into a sunrise/sunset seem to give the system difficulties, also areas where they don't have good 'HD maps' (They do 'HD' mapping via collecting drive data, then having the company TomTom process the data).

It definitely does unpredictable behavior occasionally and is not ready for distribution from people who aren't vigilant, but on areas that it has 'experience' it does pretty amazing.

For instance here is a frequently tested route of a curvy drive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjYNsGcQD3A

This is a frequent route - it does reasonably well but a bit too aggressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ui9qjDgVXco

This is a rather scary fail, when it looks like it thinks the railroad tracks road is the left hand lane, and doesn't seem to 'see' the light pole and an inattentive driver might have ended up in an accident.

https://youtu.be/bbyNg9kYEq4?t=344

9

General Comments / Should a country be able to legislate the maximum allowable children per family?

« on: September 19, 2021, 06:17:09 PM »

Should any countries government be able to set limits on the number of children a family can have?  Or in some other manner cap the total number of births (ie auction off or allow trading of allowed number of children).

Such as one or two child policies,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-child_policy

If so what means of enforcement are morally acceptable?

10

General Comments / How broken does a justice system have to be before vigilantism is moral?

« on: September 15, 2021, 03:16:30 PM »

Is there ever a threshold for which justice is so unlikely to be achieved through the judicial system that vigilantism becomes morally acceptable?

11

General Comments / Tesla AI day - deep dive into Teslas Neural Network

« on: August 19, 2021, 11:33:18 PM »

Those of you with Neural Net design background - Tesla do a really nice dive into the design of their network,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M

Those without a neural network background can still follow it - long video (skip the first 30 minutes or so which are simply waiting)

12

General Comments / Tesla crashes and politics

« on: August 16, 2021, 02:06:56 PM »

So,

US government regulators are opening an investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.

The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration announced the investigation today, and it encompasses 765,000 Teslas sold in the US, a significant fraction of all of the company’s sales in the country. The agency says the probe will cover 11 crashes since 2018; the crashes caused 17 injuries and one death.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/08/us-investigates-autopilot-after-11-teslas-crashed-into-emergency-vehicles

So one of the forum readers ran the math,

Putting this in context in any year there are typically:

6500 crashes involving EMS/ambulance
3100 crashes involving fire trucks

It's harder to get crash numbers for police vehicles, but they have around 300 police-involved traffic fatalities every year. If we estimate based on the national dataset of all crashes, about 0.5% of crashes are fatal. That means about 60,000 police vehicle crashes every year.

So, we can estimate around 70,000 emergency vehicle crashes per year in the USA. The number of Tesla-involved crashes appears to be 11 over a ~3 year timeframe. So we're comparing against 210000 overall emergency vehicle crashes.

So, based on those numbers 0.005% of emergency vehicle crashes involved a Tesla on Autopilot.

The US has about 275,000,000 vehicles. So, take the 785k Teslas, a bit more math: Tesla represents 0.28% of vehicles on the road.

If we assume Autopilot is used half the time, we can therefore estimate that a "fleet average" vehicle is ~30x as likely to be in a crash with an emergency vehicle when compared to a Tesla on Autopilot. Probably need to further reduce that based on a weighted average of Tesla fleet share over the same timeframe, which likely would reduce it to somewhere around ~20x.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/08/us-investigates-autopilot-after-11-teslas-crashed-into-emergency-vehicles/?comments=1&post=40143857#comment-40143857

So Tesla's on autopilot are roughly 20-30x less likely to be in an accident with an emergency vehicle.  You'd think the NHTSA would have ran the math themselves and realized how much less likely such accidents are with a Tesla.

13

General Comments / politician liability if they go directly opposite public health recommendations?

« on: August 03, 2021, 04:47:48 PM »

No health expert could possibly go along with Desantis ordering that schools that require masking could lose funding.  This is clearly an completely against public health and will definitely result in deaths.

He has made similar threats against businesses requiring masks or in the case of cruises vaccinations.

Should Desantis be subject to charges of manslaughter/murder?  The deaths will be a direct result of his callous disregard for life - with the only possible motive of personal gain by pandering to his base.

14

General Comments / Why are many managers pushing to reopen offices?

« on: August 03, 2021, 01:14:55 PM »

It seems like managers at many companies are pushing to have people back in offices, even though productivity has significantly increased, and thus eliminating office space would offer many companies huge savings.

Is it due to middle managers fearing being eliminated due being shown to not be contributing much?

15

General Comments / New Budweiser promotion looks primed to create heartache

« on: May 26, 2021, 06:21:29 PM »

Budweiser is having a promotion that if you buy 20$ worth of beer they will pay for two additional cases up to 60$ worth

Going to the terms and conditions - the promotion ends after a specific time frame or 100,000$ of promotion claims.  At 20-25$ per case that is only 2000 to 2500 people.

So I expect only a few minutes after the promotion begins it will end.

16

General Comments / COVID vaccines are more like a seatbelt than immunity

« on: April 26, 2021, 07:06:58 AM »

So, read an amazing article on vaccinations and it appears that most people (including myself) have misunderstood them and are overestimating how much they reduce risk against the riskiest scenarios.

Key takeaway - vaccines are more like a seatbelt than invulnerability - they help reduce risk especially at lower risk situations, but high risk you're still at serious risk.

Essentially vaccines increases resistance to the virus - 20x-50x resistance for the first 2 months following your second vaccination for Pfiser, however resistance decreases to 3x-8x after 3-7 months.  That resistance can be overwhelmed by high viral load exposure - for instance being around people singing or loudly talking (bars, crowded restaurant) increases your viral load exposure 200x-400x and can be 800x-1500x in enclosed areas.  I'd assume this also would be true for gyms.

Also super spreader individuals (about 3% of the population) have viral loads 50,000x-100,000x (I'd no idea it was so incredibly high)

So being vaccinated offers protection, but nowhere near enough for 'back to normal' for me. Things I was looking forward to doing (going to karaoke, maybe chilling at a sports bar, competitive team sports, indoor workouts) - I probably won't be willing to do unless I know that everyone with me has been vaccinated and is still being reasonably cautious.

To return to normal really requires herd immunity where the virus can extinguish - and we need to achieve it before a extremely nasty mutation comes along and given the above, the level of vaccination we need is probably way higher than we were anticipating.

For those interested in details see

https://coronavirus.quora.com/Here-s-what-I-ve-seen-about-Covid-resistance-from-a-natural-infection-b-1st-generation-vaccines-primarily-Pfizer

17

General Comments / should cartels be designated as terrorist organizations?

« on: April 21, 2021, 05:21:52 PM »

They appear to meet all of the criteria, and there are advantages to laws for dealing with terrorism groups,

https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-happens-if-trump-administration-designates-drug-cartels-terrorist-organizations

18

General Comments / Doctors spewing nonsense and malpractice

« on: March 19, 2021, 03:00:09 PM »

Should Doctors who post (do videos, etc.) medical nonsense (vaccines mutate your DNA, vaccines cause autism) lose their medical license?  Should the government seek sanctions or other legal action against them?

19

General Comments / 4D chess endgame

« on: January 13, 2021, 04:33:02 PM »

Finally the end result is clear - the complete neglect of COVID-19, the sedition and insurrection - all to ensure Biden has a smaller inauguration turn out.

20

General Comments / As Biden, who would you hire from those who have served in Trump's Presidency?

« on: November 15, 2020, 01:07:08 PM »

I'd definitely hire Jim Mattis - seems a competent and moral individual who served with honor and distinction.
I'd definitely hire Jim Bridenstine - he has done a superb job at NASA.
Fauci of course.

No other names come to mind at present.

21

General Comments / read any good books lately?

« on: September 09, 2020, 10:43:44 PM »

I've been doing a lot of reading lately rather than watch tv, go to the movies, or surf the web.

Reading recommended book series mostly - I've binged most of Robin Hobb's Assassin series.  Was rathee surprised at myself how emotional I'd get over the trials and tribulations of the characters. 

Also nearly everything by a John Scalzi. Interesting ideas on alien societies and the future of warfare.

Before that the Lilith's Brood series by Octavia Butler and the meaning of being human.

The various works of Neal Gaman especially American Gods.

David Brin's Uplift series and other works.

Even further back Ian M Banks Culture series and other works.

Also the Rifters trilogy and Blindsight by Peter Watts - his science fiction vampires are especially fascinating and really interesting alien species.

22

General Comments / UFO's could it be aliens?

« on: April 27, 2020, 01:53:53 PM »

So a bit of a fun topic - spoiler - not aliens.

Navy has released some videos of 'UFOs'.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33179/navy-officially-releases-infamous-ufo-videos

Some pretty cool rational analysis -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Btns91W5J8&t=7s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLyEO0jNt6M&t=20s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1oTg0kxzDs

23

General Comments / To Mask or not to Mask

« on: April 04, 2020, 12:26:36 AM »

Apparently the CDC recommendation is not a CDC recommendation but a recommendation forced on it by the White House, the basic worry is that people will reduce or eliminate their social distancing due to a false sense of security and thus risks increasing infection.

Some public health experts at the US Centers for Disease Control felt "pressured" by the White House to draft recommendations that all Americans wear masks or facial coverings while in public, according to a senior federal health official involved in discussions.

A source told CNN the "CDC was under intense pressure to do this quickly."
""The CDC would not have gone this direction if not for the White House," the senior official told CNN. "We would have tried more to understand about asymptomatic transmission. We would have done more studies if we had more time." "

"It was more than we were comfortable with, the source added. "Things were done very fast. It's a credibility risk to the agency. It's not fabulous for credibility. There is a real worry that this will provide a false sense of security to the public. Also, up until now the CDC has been telling people it's okay not to wear a mask, and it's going to be recommended that we do. It runs the risk of confusing the public."

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-03-20-intl/h_8f7ec40bf3b90b0099bf36fa5b1cc68b

As to the science behind whether wearing a mask helps, arstechnica did a brief literature review.  N95 when used properly helps workers prevent getting infected.  Surgical masks seem sufficient to help prevent spreading infection to others, but not from getting infection.  Cloth masks likely don't prevent (at least hospital workers) from getting infections and actually appear to increase risk of infection of hospital workers 10 fold (more face touching and cloth has very poor filtration).  Masks usage to prevent getting infections from a sick family member don't seem to be effective.  The big question - which we don't know - is cloth sufficient to reduce spread of virus from asymptomatic individuals; and are people likely to get virus on their mask and then infect themselves due to increased face touching; and which of those is the more likely scenario.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/should-you-wear-a-face-mask-heres-all-the-data-we-have

As to countries with high success controlling the virus also being countries that were wearing masks - Singapore didn't have mask wearing till the other day.  Thus most of the success is probably the other measures - their rapid response track and trace and testing.

24

General Comments / Why Dr. Zelenko's claim is dubious

« on: April 03, 2020, 12:42:46 PM »

his story mainly originates from an interview Dr. Zelenko gave on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox News and his since spread over the internet. Dr. Zelenko claims a 100% cure rate of COVID-19 within 4–6 hours[1] using a preparation of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and zinc sulfate.

It is difficult to positively rule it out from the limited information given, but there are enough red flags to safely say the report is false

Some points to consider:

    It’s unclear if 669 patients even exist in the areas he’s practicing. Zelenko gave some geographical statistics from an early claim of roughly 500 patients treated. 350 are from small city of Kiryas Joel, while the other 150 live nearby in the Monsey area.[2] There were 10 confirmed cases in Kiryas Joel at the time of his announcement .[3] While it is true that some cases might not be reported to the state, this is both a shockingly high prevalence-higher even than Riker’s Island,[4] a natural breeding ground for the disease which has been described as a public health catastrophe -and really severe under-reporting. To believe his numbers, you have to believe that people diagnosed with a highly infectious, potentially fatal disease don’t tell anybody - not the state, not their rabbis, not anybody who would leave a record. Orange county officials have said that after an early spike, the prevalence in Kiryas Joel is similar to that of Orange County overall, [5] which would likely leave him with a few dozen potential patients at most in early -mid March when the study occurred.

How did he find all the patients he claims then?

    He believes nearly everybody in Kiryas Joel has COVID-19. The 669 patients is only the people he has treated. Dr. Zelenko thinks there is much more are out there. He is on record that as saying that 90% of the city of Kiryas Joel is infected after a couple of tests came back positive and then extrapolating based on his view of viral dynamics. [6] This claim on such thin evidence earned him a formal reprimand both from the city of Kiryas Joel and the Orange County Health Commissioner:[7]

    “We the undersigned institutions strongly believe that the predictions presented by Dr. Zelenko have been proven false and are not supported by the overall medical establishment, specifically in his wild conclusions as to the spread of the virus in our community,”

    He does not test for COVID-19 before treating. Dr. Zelenko gave up testing after these first few positive results. He now diagnoses based solely on his clinical judgement, which leads to a vicious circle- it is probably the disease because the disease is everywhere and we know the disease is everywhere because we keep diagnosing it.

https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-evidence-that-Dr-Vladimir-Zelenko-has-cured-699-patients-of-COVID-19-with-Hydroxchloroquine-and-Zinc-sulfate/answer/Jeffrey-Brender

So, it is completely implausible.

25

General Comments / Did Technology Review fall for a joke paper?

« on: December 12, 2019, 03:28:40 PM »

Here is a recent Technology Review paper,

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614775/a-new-way-to-make-quadratic-equations-easy

If you plug in 1 for A in the typical quadratic formula, it simplifies to the "new easier formula'.  I can't tell if the TR writer can't do math or what.

26

General Comments / Ukraine Timeline

« on: November 24, 2019, 07:34:21 PM »

Here is a timeline, I think it clarifies a lot,

    May 2014: Hunter Biden joins the Board of Directors of Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings. At this point, Biden has been an executive VP with MBNA, worked for the US Department of Commerce, co-founded his own law firm, and was on the Board of Directors of Amtrak. He holds a bachelors in history from Georgetown, and has his JD from Yale Law. His salary is in-line with what would be expected at a Fortune 500 company.
    Feb 2015: Viktor Shokin becomes Ukraine’s prosecutor general.
    Sep 2015: Geoffrey Pyatt, the US Ambassador to Ukraine, speaks in Ukraine, blasting Shokin for not addressing corruption within Ukraine.
    Oct 2015: Victoria Nuland, Asst US Sec of State, testifies in the US Senate that Shokin is corrupt and needs to be removed.
    Dec 2015: VP Joe Biden joins several other European leaders in telling Ukrainian leadership to replace Shokin with somebody who will end corruption.
    Feb 2016: the International Monetary Fund threatens to end a bailout program for Ukraine unless they address their corruption issues, starting with Shokin.
    Feb 2016: VP Biden speaks with then-Ukrainian President Poroshenko about fighting corruption, including replacing Shokin on both the 11th and 18th. He makes it clear that US financial aid will be withheld until action is taken.
    Mar 2016: Shokin is ousted, replaced by Yuri Lutsenko
    Jan 2017: an investigation into Burisma, that had been dormant under Shokin but re-opened under Lutsenko, finds that Burisma hadn’t been paying enough in taxes. A settlement is reached.
    Jan 2018: Biden speaks at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations and describes one of his discussions with Poroshenko in 2016.

So that should clarify Biden's role regards Shokin.  There is nothing to imply that Shokin was removed to prevent an investigation into his son's company, indeed part of why Shokin was removed was refusal to investigate the company.  After Shokin was removed, Burisma was investigated and the findings were related to taxation, which it was fined for.

    Apr 2019: Mueller Report issued. It finds no illegal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia but does find extensive evidence of obstruction of justice by the Trump administration and leaves it to Congress to take action.
    Apr 2019: Zelensky wins election in Ukraine, becomes president. Trump calls to congratulate Zelensky and never brings up the topic of corruption, per transcripts of the call.
    May 2019: Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, tells the NY Times that he will be traveling to Ukraine to push for an investigation into the Biden family “…because that information will be very, very helpful to my client…”.
    May 2019: In an interview with Fox News, Trump falsely portrays Biden’s role in the removal of Shokin, claiming he was preventing an investigation into his son. All fact checks point to this as being a blatant lie.
    May 2019: $400 million in military assistance, dictated by Congress in the federal budget, is due to be released to Ukraine.
    Jul 2019: Trump makes a decision to withhold the aid to Ukraine, this is communicated to the Departments of State and Defense.
    Jul 2019: Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker sends a text message to US Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland, “Most impt is for Zelensky to say that he will help investigation [into the Bidens]”.
    Jul 2019: Volker texts Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s top aide, “Heard from White House-assuming President Z convinces trump he will investigate / 'get to the bottom of what happened' in 2016, we will nail down date for visit to Washington”
    Jul 2019: Trump speaks to Zelensky and, per an edited transcript released by the White House, ties the sale of US arms to Ukraine, as well as a White House visit, to Zelensky investigating the Bidens. After the call, the edited transcript is moved to a classified server reserved for sensitive national security information.
    Jul 2019: State Dept staff circulate emails indicating the Ukrainian embassy is asking about the promised military assistance.
    Jul 2019: an unknown “whistleblower” writes a report about the call to Zelensky.
    Aug 2019: Volker and Sondland text one another, making it clear that Trump wants Zelensky to announce the Bidens are being investigated.
    Aug 2019: Yernak texts Volker, says they need to lock in the date for Zelensky’s White House visit before Zelensky will announce a Biden investigation.
    Aug 2019: Sondland emails two State Department aides: “Kurt & I negotiated a statement from Ze to be delivered for our review in a day or two. The contents will hopefully make the boss happy enough to authorize an invitation. Ze plans to have a big presser on the openness subject (including specifics) next week.”
    Aug 2019: whistleblower files his complaint with the Inspector General for the intelligence community, Michael Atkinson. The IG determines the complaint is credible and a matter of “urgent concern”, legally requiring disclosure to the House and Senate intelligence committees. He forwards it to Director of National Intelligence, Joseph Maguire, who doesn’t follow policy and refuses to give it to the committees.
    Aug 2019: Volker and Sondland text back and forth about what Zelensky’s statement needs to say.
    Aug 2019: Politico reports that the Trump administration is withholding military aid from Ukraine
    Aug 2019: US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor writes to Sec of State Pompeo, calling it “folly” to withhold military aid to Ukraine.
    Sep 2019: Taylor texts Sondland, “Are we now saying that security assistance and WH meeting are conditioned on investigations?”
    Sep 9 2019: IG Atkinson notifies the House and Senate Intelligence Committees about the whistleblower complaint.
    Sep 10 2019: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff writes to Maguire, demanding the whistleblower complaint.
    Sep 11 2019: US aid is released to Ukraine
    Sep 13 2019: Schiff subpoenas Maguire
    Sep 18 2019: Zelensky cancels a CNN interview.
    Sep 26: whistleblower complaint released

https://www.quora.com/Whom-has-Lt-Col-Vindmans-testimony-favored-the-Democrats-or-the-Republicans/answer/Garrett-Murphy-6

27

General Comments / Providing interior design services to criminals prosecuted as money laundering

« on: November 20, 2019, 12:38:25 PM »

This is an interesting theory of money laundering,

Federal prosecutors would allege, however, that by agreeing to decorate roughly two dozen of Santacruz’s properties – including a “postmodern hacienda” and an apocalypse-ready compound as the kingpin’s pursuers closed in on him – the designers had transformed his American cocaine profits into objects of value in Colombia.

It was money laundering, they argued, and an essential cog in the operations of a cartel that the head of the DEA had called “the most well-organized and well-financed crime organization in history.”

[...]

In a recent interview, Lerner called the case a “warning shot” to the business community that even if their services were legitimate, they could be prosecuted for having drug traffickers as clients.

“Nobody was saying that the decorators pointed knives and guns and pulled triggers and stuff,” said Lerner, now a partner at a New York law firm. “What we were saying was they were the bagmen for this organization.”

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2019/11/06/cali-cartel-leader-dies-interior-decorators-take-fall-crime/4050770002

28

General Comments / Fake News

« on: November 07, 2019, 03:25:09 PM »

This is pretty amazing,

you probably heard about the AI text generation that was 'so good it was dangerous to release', it was an AI text generator model called "GPT-2".

Well CTRL is a more recent variant in the same area of research and it produces far more convincing text. 

https://minimaxir.com/2019/09/ctrl-fake-news/

For instance you can provide as input a fake URL such as https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-likes-fortnite/2019/09/24/ that contains the headline you want the story to be about,

and voila,

    Trump likes Fortnite

    President Trump, who has been known to play video games for hours at a time, is now playing the popular game “Fortnite” on his phone.

    The president was spotted watching the online battle royale game, which pits players against each other in an attempt to kill their opponents, while he sat down with House and Senate leaders Tuesday afternoon.

    “I like that it’s not just about shooting people but also having fun doing it,” said Trump.

    He then asked if anyone had played it before.

    “You know what, I don’t think I’ve ever seen that,” replied Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La.

    A White House official told reporters later Wednesday afternoon that Trump did indeed watch the game.

    “He watched it, yeah,” the official said.

Or you put in the reverse headline,

    Trump despises Fortnite

    The president of the United States has a new favorite video game: “Fortnite.”

    President Trump, who is known for his love of fast food and beer, was reportedly so excited about playing this game that he called it “the greatest thing in the world.”

    But according to an Axios report, Trump’s enthusiasm waned after learning how much time players spend on it.

    “He said it’s not even close to being as good as ‘Candy Crush,’ ” one source told the news outlet.

    In fact, the report said, Trump had been watching videos online while eating dinner with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Mar-a-Lago.

    According to Axios, Trump also complained about the game’s difficulty level — which can be adjusted by spending real money or virtual currency — saying it wasn’t challenging enough.

    “I don’t know why they made it hard,” Trump said.

    He then went off topic when asked if he’d play again.

    “No, I won’t.”

    A White House official later clarified that Trump didn’t say he wouldn’t play, but rather that he’s “not into it.”

Or how about fake economic news using the fake url - https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/24/20882491/apple-has-filed-for-bankruptcy

    Apple has filed for bankruptcy.

    The company that made the iPhone and iPad is filing for bankruptcy, according to a report from Bloomberg.

    According to Bloomberg News, Apple’s board of directors voted unanimously on Friday morning in favor of an emergency plan designed to keep it afloat until its next quarterly earnings report.

    In order to avoid paying more than $128 million in back taxes, Apple will have to sell off assets like its Beats headphone business, which was valued at about $1 billion when it went public last year.

    “Apple said today that it plans to file for Chapter 11 protection under US Bankruptcy Court in Delaware this week,” Bloomberg reports.

    A source familiar with the matter told Reuters earlier this week that Apple had been considering selling some or all of its music streaming service iTunes Music Store as part of a restructuring plan.

    But the news comes just days after reports surfaced suggesting that Apple would be forced into liquidation.

    Last week, Bloomberg reported that Apple could soon announce layoffs if sales don’t pick up soon.

    “We are working hard every day to deliver great products and services to our customers around the world,” Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, wrote in a letter to employees today.

Or a fake discovery in mathematics - https://techcrunch.com/2029/09/24/mit-proves-p-equals-np

    MIT proves P equals NP

    The University of Massachusetts Amherst has proven that the problem posed by factoring large numbers is NP-complete.

    In a paper published in Nature, researchers at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) have shown how to factor an integer using only two numbers, one for each digit — which means it takes just three operations on your brain.

    This isn’t quite as impressive as solving the problem, but it’s still pretty impressive.

    “Given any number n, we can find its product n times with polynomial time if there are no factors involved,” said lead author David DeWitt, who worked on this project while he was a graduate student there.

    But what about factorizing larger numbers?

    “We showed you could do it, but not without some extra effort,” DeWitt said.

    To prove this, they used a technique called Monte Carlo integration, where they simulated millions or billions of different inputs from thousands of computers running various versions of Java.

    They then ran their algorithm through all possible combinations of input values until it found the best one.

    “The result shows that even though our system doesn’t solve every single case, it does get close enough to be useful.”

Or fake movie sequel announcement, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/fox-announces-firefly-season-2-revival-original-cast-returning-12343245

    Fox announces Firefly Season 2 revival, original cast returning

    The network has announced that the second season of Joss Whedon’s cult sci-fi series will return for a new run in 2018.

    “Fans have been asking us to bring back Firefly, and we couldn’t be more thrilled about this opportunity,” said Chris Albrecht, president of programming at Fox. “We are excited to continue our relationship with Joss, who is one of the most creative minds working today on television, as well as his amazing cast, which includes Nathan Fillion, Summer Glau, Alan Tudyk, Adam Baldwin, Sean Maher, Adrianne Palicki, Tricia Helfer, Jewel Staite, Michael Trucco, and many more.”

    In addition to Whedon himself, executive producers include Damon Lindelof, Maurissa Tancharoen, Vince Gilligan, David Fury, Jeffrey Bell, Greg Plageman, Scott M. Gimple, Heather Kadin, Andrew Chambliss, John Rogers, and Ron Moore.

    “The show was an instant hit when it debuted over 20 years ago, but its popularity only grew after the success of ‘Serenity,’ so we’re very pleased to welcome fans into another chapter of their lives,” added Feige.

Article is well worth reading.  While GPT-2 had pretty obvious errors to even people unfamiliar with the topics it generated fake articles about, I think CTRL can fool non-experts on a variety of topics, especially with minor editing to remove any 'gross' errors.

29

General Comments / Warren's Medicare for All plan

« on: November 02, 2019, 02:05:32 PM »

Here is a summary of her plan as described by an author at Fast Company.  I haven't dug into the authors math - some seem like they are being expressed as their 'over 10 years' cost, and others seem annual (Overseas Contingency Operations fund).

Continuing our current healthcare system would cost $52 trillion over 10 years. Warren’s plan will cost the same amount—but insure everyone while axing family healthcare costs to near zero. Here’s where the money would come from each year:

    $2.3 trillion: Income from collecting taxes currently not paid due to evasion and fraud, which is roughly 15% of all taxes.
    $3.8 trillion: Fees on financial firms and large companies, including a financial transaction fee such as a small tax (one-tenth of 1%) on sales of stocks, bonds, and derivatives, assessed on firms (not investors). She also proposes removing some corporate tax loopholes.
    $8.8 trillion: Taxes on companies, meant to reroute what they currently pay anyway for employee health insurance. Warren says they would save $20 billion a year.
    $3 trillion: Taxes on the wealthy, including 6 cents per dollar on all net worth over $1 billion, as well as a 1% tax on capital gains every year, for which the tax rate would rise to income tax levels.
    $80 billion: Most of what is currently allocated ($116 billion) for the military Overseas Contingency Operations fund each year, a “slush fund” that makes up roughly 10% of all federal discretionary spending. Warren proposes shutting it down and repurposing most of it toward insurance.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90425547/elizabeth-warrens-new-medicare-for-all-plan-is-confusing-let-us-break-it-down-for-you

Here is her post on medium describing it in more detail,

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/ending-the-stranglehold-of-health-care-costs-on-american-families-bf8286b13086

30

General Comments / Do you think Nixon was innocent of wrong doing?

« on: October 28, 2019, 09:04:58 PM »

For those of you who feel that the current investigation is a 'witch hunt' and that Trump did 'nothing wrong' - do you also believe that Nixon did nothing wrong?

31

General Comments / Employer required attendance at political rally?

« on: September 06, 2019, 03:13:05 PM »

Union workers at Shell's petrochemical plant in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, were required to attend President Donald Trump's speech at the facility on Tuesday, lest they not be paid, according to a report from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

The paper reported that workers at Royal Dutch Shell's ethylene cracker plant—which is still unfinished and is currently the largest construction project in Pennsylvania—were told that they had to arrive at 7 a.m., scan their ID cards and wait for hours to hear the president speak in order to be paid.

When reached for comment, Shell spokesman Curtis Smith pushed back on some of the assertions in the report, namely that workers who chose not to attend the speech would be allowed a "non-paid absence."

Those not in attendance would "take paid time off (PTO), instead," Smith wrote.

Smith also claimed that the event "was treated as a training (work day)," the only notable departure from traditional training sessions being that Tuesday's program included "a guest speaker who happened to be the President."

https://www.newsweek.com/shell-pennsylvania-trump-union-ethylene-1454858

Should businesses be able to host political rallys and make part of employee wages contingent on attendance?

This seems like mandated political speech - I can't believe that it is, or should be legal.

32

General Comments / US Marshals as student loan debt collectors???

« on: August 22, 2019, 11:36:32 AM »

Texas congressman Gene Green explained to Fox 26 that the federal government has been contracting out student-loan collections to private debt collectors, who are allowed to deploy the U.S. marshals as their enforcement arm. “There’s bound to be a better way to collect on a student loan debt,” said the congressman. Around Houston, that “better way” involves 1,200 to 1,500 arrest warrants. Student debt is at an all time high in the U.S., where students hold an average of $35,000 in federal debt, according to an analysis of government data on Edvisors.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/02/us-marshals-forcibly-collecting-student-debt.html

33

General Comments / Legitimizing gangs in Ecuador results in massive reduction in murder rate

« on: April 06, 2019, 03:13:33 PM »

In 2007, the crime-riddled nation of Ecuador did something surprising: It legalized the gangs that had been the source of much of the violence. Then something even more surprising happened over the next decade: Murder rates plummeted.

[...]

The country allowed the gangs to remake themselves as cultural associations that could register with the government, which in turn allowed them to qualify for grants and benefit from social programming, just like everybody else.

[...]

It turned out they’d undergone a stunning transformation. The members were still very active in their gangs, but these were functioning more like social movements or cultural groups. Previously violent Latin Kings were working in everything from catering to crime analysis. And they were collaborating with other gangs they’d warred with in the past.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/26/18281325/ecuador-legalize-gangs

I'm curious what a deeper analysis would reveal - I'd be concerned about the gangs using legitimate businesses for money laundering, smuggling, etc.  If it is a legitimate transformation though, then it is pretty amazing.

34

General Comments / Striking deals while political relatives are visiting on official business

« on: March 21, 2019, 03:40:44 AM »

A new book is alleging that Biden's son Hunter and his partners would time meetings to take place shortly before Vice President Biden would have official meetings and negotiations,

https://americauncensored.com/biden-busted-shocking-china-scandal/

Given that many nations engage in quid pro quo corruption, the Chinese may have interpreted this as a means to influence the negotiations and thus provided favorable deals to Hunter and his partners that he might not otherwise have received.

So, first off - assuming that the deal or lack thereof given to Hunter had no impact on international negotiations, do you think that Hunter and his partners did anything illegal?  What about unethical?

If it isn't illegal, should it be?

35

General Comments / James Mattis is resigning - effective the end of February

« on: December 20, 2018, 08:03:26 PM »

Here is his letter of resignation,

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/20/politics/james-mattis-resignation-letter-doc/index.html

Trump first announced the news of Mattis' departure on Twitter, portraying it as a retirement. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., attempted an optimistic view, saying he hoped the general's "decision to resign was motivated solely by a desire to enjoy a well deserved retirement."

That sentiment was quickly replaced, however, after Rubio read Mattis' letter — which did not include any praises or compliments of the president and implicitly criticized the president's military judgment.

To Rubio, the letter "makes it abundantly clear that we are headed towards a series of grave policy errors which will endanger our nation,damage our alliances & empower our adversaries." He also pressed for more oversight of the executive branch by Congress.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/scary-mattis-resignation-triggers-bipartisan-chorus-concern-capitol-hill-n950651

36

General Comments / Life Imitates Art - BlackMirror episode becoming reality in China

« on: November 23, 2018, 09:36:03 AM »

Someone in China watched an episode of Black Mirror and said "that's a great idea!",

Hangzhou rolled out its personal credit system earlier this year, rewarding “pro-social behaviors” such as volunteer work and blood donations while punishing those who violate traffic laws and charge under-the-table fees. By the end of May, people with bad credit in China have been blocked from booking more than 11 million flights and 4 million high-speed train trips, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

According to the Beijing government’s plan, different agencies will link databases to get a more detailed picture of every resident’s interactions across a swathe of services. The proposal calls for agencies including tourism bodies, business regulators and transit authorities to work together

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/beijing-to-judge-every-resident-based-on-behavior-by-end-of-2020

37

General Comments / Should there be required disclosure for paid protestors?

« on: October 26, 2018, 01:35:42 AM »

Should there be required disclosure for paid protestors?  Or similar paid lobbying and influence campaigns?  (Paying people to contact and try and persuade senators, etc.)

38

General Comments / False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation

« on: October 09, 2018, 01:37:25 PM »

Someone on facebook had posted a meme claiming that a man had a ".00321%" chance of being falsely accused of rape.

So I figured I'd do some back of the envelope estimates.

Lower bound estimate is 2% of rape reports are false allegations, most credible studies are in the 10-20% range, and there are 100,000 criminal allegations per year. 10- 20% * 100,000 = 10,000 to 20,000 false allegations per year - and if you use lifetime risk (say age 16-66 a 50 year span) 50 years * (10-20,000) = 500,000 to 1,000,000 men falsely accused in their lifetime.  And US adult male population in that age range is about 100 million, that is about a .5-1% lifetime risk of a false allegation.

That is only criminal allegations - false accusations are far more likely in the unreported allegations.

39

General Comments / Google Assistant can make phone calls and set appointments

« on: May 09, 2018, 12:38:55 PM »

This is really impressive, the AI makes a phone call, sets an appointment answers questions about relevant details, offers alternatives, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVppdt_-B4

Here is a more complete video that shows a second example (at 3 minutes) with lots of unexpected replies and someone with a poor master of english from a restaurant owner and it handles it gracefully.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5VN56jQMWM

While it is a narrow domain, this seems essentially passing the turing test.

40

General Comments / Russian hackers posed as ISIS to threaten US military wives and familes

« on: May 08, 2018, 11:24:45 AM »

Russian government hackers (same group that targeted Podestra) posed as ISIS threatening military wives and their familes.

"Dear Angela!" the Facebook message read. "Bloody Valentine's Day!"

"We know everything about you, your husband and your children," the message continued, claiming that the hackers operating under the flag of Islamic State militants had penetrated her computer and her phone. "We're much closer than you can even imagine."

Ricketts was one of five military wives who received death threats from the self-styled CyberCaliphate on the morning of Feb. 10, 2015. The warnings led to days of anguished media coverage of Islamic State militants' online reach.

Except it wasn't IS.

The Associated Press has found evidence that the women were targeted not by jihadists but by the same Russian hacking group that intervened in the American election and exposed the emails of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign chairman, John Podesta.

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/russians-posed-as-isis-hackers-threatened-us-military-wives-1.525869

41

General Comments / OSC is on Quora

« on: April 22, 2018, 10:53:57 AM »

Looks like he has been here for a number of months now.  Browsing his answers - mostly one off paragraphs without much substance but the occassional interesting answer.

https://www.quora.com/profile/Orson-Scott-Card-1

42

General Comments / Cohen has now dropped his libel suits regarding the claim he was in Prague

« on: April 19, 2018, 04:03:43 PM »

Cohen abandoned the suits late Wednesday as he continues to fight to recover documents and electronic files seized from his home, office and hotel room last week by federal authorities as part of what appears to be a broad criminal investigation into his conduct.

"The decision to voluntarily discontinue these cases was a difficult one," Cohen's attorney David Schwartz said. "We believe the defendants defamed my client, and vindicating Mr. Cohen’s rights was — and still remains — important. But given the events that have unfolded, and the time, attention, and resources needed to prosecute these matters, we have dismissed the matters, despite their merits."

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/04/19/michael-cohen-drops-buzzfeed-fusion-lawsuit-537327

If the documents seized prove that he did go to Prague, what would be the consequences had he continued the suits?

43

General Comments / Brilliant way to see diversity of news perspectives on reddit

« on: April 19, 2018, 01:46:46 AM »

I really like this, when a news article is linked at reddit,

They have  bot that gives a list of other links to articles by other news outlets about the same story (so you can see how the headlines are reporting the same story differently, etc.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/starbucks/comments/8d1kx0/starbucks_closing_nationwide_on_may_29th/

44

General Comments / Justice and murder by the mentally ill

« on: April 18, 2018, 02:22:19 PM »

On facebook, a relative posted a story that a woman who killed her child and then attempted suicide is being sentenced to life (someone apparently the various people commenting had known).  There were a number of comments by people that they were glad that 'justice' had occurred for the child.

To me the word justice in this context seems entirely wrong.

45

General Comments / Racism or rational response to trespassing

« on: April 15, 2018, 09:26:31 PM »

Two African-American men were arrested for trespassing after they were asked to either order something or to leave and refused to do either.  Then when the police show up, they also refused to leave and were arrested.

Starbucks has a district by district policy on loitering and trespassing.

So in my district we have a new directive from our DM where the shifts are supposed to go around the lobby every few hours and kick out people who are loitering (basically, everyone who hangs out for a few hours studying or working in the lobby) or those who are relaxing in-store but who haven't bought anything. I can see why corporate doesn't want non-paying people using the store's resources, but I feel like this is a really bad look for Starbucks and the "welcoming" brand image that we are supposedly about.

https://www.reddit.com/r/starbucks/comments/6yhtu0/kicking_out_the_noncustomers

Thursday. A store manager had asked the two men to leave after they attempted to use the bathroom but had not made any purchases, police said. The men said they were waiting for a friend, their attorney later said. The manager then called 911 for assistance, the company said.

“They’re not free to leave. We’re done with that,” an officer replies. “We asked them to leave the first time.” The two men stand up to be cuffed. They do not appear to resist.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/04/15/two-black-men-were-arrested-waiting-at-a-starbucks-now-the-company-police-are-on-the-defensive/?utm_term=.70a5efc4ea0b

Also another discussion at reddit on the recent arrest - a few (white) people have mentioned that they have been asked to leave if they haven't ordered anything as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/8cg50j/video_cops_arrest_two_black_men_sitting_in/

So it isn't clear to me that racism was a motivating factor, it seems the manager was simply enforcing a recently enacted corporate policy against loitering, and the gentlemen refused to comply, so the manager called the police - something typical in this sort of situation.  Then they refused to obey the police when asked to leave, and so were arrested for trespassing.

So what do you think?  Was racism a likely factor?  What should a manager do if individuals loitering refuse to order or leave?  What should police do when individuals refuse to leave after being asked by the police?

46

General Comments / Sinclair group propoganda video

« on: April 02, 2018, 01:20:23 PM »

Wow, this is creepy.  Sinclair Group instructed all of the 'news' stations they own to make the same statement, and they were put together into a single video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cabD_0h5mcA

It is the ultimate in irony.

47

General Comments / Uber self-driving car hits and kills pedestrian

« on: March 19, 2018, 02:25:03 PM »

There was a safety driver, so it might have been unavoidable (such as a person running out from between vehicles).  Uber has suspended their self-driving cars from all public testing for now.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html


https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-suspends-driverless-car-program-after-pedestrian-is-struck-and-killed-1521480386

48

General Comments / Can the President require government employees to sign an NDA?

« on: March 18, 2018, 10:14:13 PM »

Apparently Trump has required administration employees (White House staffers) to sign NDA's - can they have any legal force?  I would think they would be null and void.

President Donald Trump required senior White House staff members to sign nondisclosure agreements that not only threatened stiff financial penalties for violations, but extended far beyond Trump's time in office, Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus reported on Sunday.

According to a draft agreement Marcus said she viewed, violators could face $10 million penalties for each unauthorized release of "confidential information," though it's possible the final NDAs reduced the penalty amount. The agreement applied not only to staffers' White House tenures but "all times thereafter."

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nondisclosure-agreements-white-house-staffers-penalties-2018-3

49

General Comments / Are in person prison visitations a right?

« on: December 12, 2017, 06:05:26 PM »

Apparently some prisons are ending in person visits and requiring instead that all contact is via a skype equivalent, etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/09/skype-for-jailed-video-calls-prisons-replace-in-person-visits

Do you think this is legal, and if so do you think it should be allowed?

50

General Comments / Arrests and political speech

« on: November 20, 2017, 02:31:00 PM »

Karen Fonseca, a woman in Texas, had "*censored* Trump and *censored* you for voting for him" as a laminate on the rear window of her truck in Texas.  The local sheriff took offense, and posted a partial photo to track the truck down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/11/16/texas-sheriff-is-on-the-hunt-for-driver-with-profane-anti-trump-window-sticker/

She was then arrested "on an outstanding fraud warrant issued from a nearby town".

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/11/17/25571694/texas-woman-arrested-after-*censored*-trump-decal-debacle

Since it was clear from his facebook posting that his intent was to retaliate for political speech - what implication does that have, even though the arrest is for a valid outstanding warrant?