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Messages - DonaldD

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That's the problem with getting your statistics by looking at exciting video on the "6 o'clock news", as opposed to actually looking at and counting up all incidents of violence, even if they weren't being amplified by one's favourite media (or president).  I'm sure that incidents of media reports of terrorist violence do NOT match the 67%/20% ratio.

As for this:

they're crediting the White Supremacists with 80% and the left with only 20%? On what planet are they living on?

You misread: the numbers in the study are actually 67 percent for far-right terrorists (not 80%) and 20 percent for far-left terrorists.

The only other non-opinion based indicator that doesn't point to Trump would be in regards to the economy, except that's in the context of Covid19, and opinion polling showing people overwhelmingly thinking Trump is the better candidate in regards to the Economy.

Overwhelmingly? You're at least 2 months behind the times on that:Other non-polling metrics are fundraising, where large numbers of small Democratic donations are simply swamping Republicans' - to the tune of Biden having 4 times the war chest as does Trump at this point.  That certainly talks to Democrats' motivation this year, and actual intent to vote; the youth vote, which is significantly higher in early voting and which tends to skew progressive; the state of the economy - presidents get saddled with the economy in place at the time of the election, and like it or not, the USA is in a recession, with truly awful unemployment numbers; and then there is COVID-19, which is flaring up at the most inopportune time for Trump, who is generally seen as weak on the pandemic.

Then there is Trump's schedule, where, instead of expanding the electoral map, Trump has been defending states that he won previously (some easily).

I have to wonder, though: what is the rationale for believing the polls are that far off?  Pollsters get paid to be correct: once they've lost the trust of the people buying their product, that's the end of their business.  Even if you assume that the same limitations are in place today as existed 4 years ago (although pollsters have corrected a number of issues with state level polling - specifically, weighting based on population density metrics, as well as level of education) Biden is still 4% ahead of Clinton, and there is no Comey letter bringing Biden down.  So even if (and this is a big "if") Biden's numbers soften to the same extent as did Clintons, he will still have a likely 6% margin in the national vote.  Not to mention that Biden has a favourability advantage over what Clinton had of more than 10%, whereas Trump's favourability hasn't really budged; Trump has a huge gap there.

It's the Sunday one week before election day, and a number of observations:
  • Biden's current lead over Trump is 4% higher than Clinton's at the same point in 2016 (9.2% vs 5.2%)
  • There are very few undecided voters in the polls this year, and the vote share of 3rd parties is also smaller than in 2016
  • In 538's average, Biden's support hasn't dropped below 50% of likely voters since the beginning of August.
  • Young people seem to be motivated to vote (voting early, at the very least) this year.  The percentage of young voters (18-29) having already cast their ballots increased from 7.0% of the total at this time in 2016, to 9.2% of the votes cast so far in 2020 - an increase of ~30%. 

It's in the summary of the study.  Click on the link if you are interested.

Mask wearing is the number one failing of the USA right now.  It should be feasible for the president to convince large numbers of his followers to do so (as that is primarily where the resistance of masks is centred).

It was just last week (or two weeks ago?) that the CDC stated that more than 100,000 lives could be saved between now and February by just taking that one step.

Not trying to take that step is, frankly, criminal.

It looks like the White House has settled on a strategy of allowing the pandemic to rip through the population, shutting down borders with the rest of the world and hobbling the economy until the middle of next year:

Washington (CNN)White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Sunday that the US is "not going to control" the coronavirus pandemic, as cases surge across the country and nearly 225,000 Americans have died from the virus.

"We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas," Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

Whether this is a winning strategy remains to be seen.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: Today at 09:04:46 AM »
And just to show that people can be stupid elsewhere, too: The Scotsman: Scottish Government urged to agree coronavirus 'ceasefire' on Christmas Day

The Bishop of Paisley has called for an easing of restrictions on Christmas Day amid warnings of a “digital Christmas”.

"...when, in a stunning show of humanity and brotherhood, the coronavirus agreed to lay down arms, share cigs, sing carols and organized pick-up matches of football with the soldiers facing them down across the fields of death."

Filed under "Dog Bites Man": Centre For Strategic and International Studies: Far-Right Groups Are Behind Most U.S. Terrorist Attacks, 2020 Report Finds

I know this is inconvenient for the narrative being pushed in support of a particular political group, but to quote one of the great thinkers of our time: "It is what it is."

And here is the source study.

Based on the data, this analysis has several findings, which are discussed at greater length later in this assessment. First, white supremacists and other like-minded extremists conducted 67 percent of terrorist plots and attacks in the United States in 2020.


Despite these findings, this violence needs to be understood in historical context. The number of fatalities from terrorist attacks in the U.S. homeland is still relatively small compared to some periods in U.S. history, making it important not to overstate the threat.7 Roughly half of the years since 1994 had a greater number of fatalities from terrorism than 2020—at least between January 1 and August 31, 2020.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: Today at 07:30:08 AM »
Oops - my bad.  The past two days weren't actually record breaking:

You know why there are so many cases? Because we test. Because we test more than any country in the world, nobody tests like us. Everybody uses the word 'cases'... Use the word 'case' because you're trying to scare people. Don't scare people. Don't scare people. The fact is, that we're doing very well.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 24, 2020, 09:40:52 PM »
Another milestone - today, with just 2,000 fewer new daily cases than was recorded yesterday, was not only the second-highest daily case count of the pandemic, but at 79,000 new cases, was more than 10,000 more daily new cases than reported on any other Saturday.

The 7-day average is now just 2000 lower than the peak recorded in late July.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 24, 2020, 06:19:38 PM »
Given the likely spike (or maybe more accurately, the increasing spikes that will likely occur over the next month at least) are people - Democrat, Republican, independent or other - encouraging their acquaintances to vote early (in any fashion) in order to avoid what will likely be a more dangerous situation on each successive day?

By the way, we’re turning the corner. We are turning the corner on the virus.

It just now occurred to me what Trump might actually mean by this: maybe the "corner" that the county is "turning" is one where a critical mass of people get infected, beyond which it will be impossible to control the virus.  Maybe he thinks that if enough people get infected, transmission will become unstoppable, and at that point any effort to reduce infections would be wasted, so the country might just as well open up and get it over with - basically, the "close your eyes and think of the queen," strategy.

Maybe, just maybe, in this one case he is being honest.

We're not going to have a socialist president, especially a female socialist president, we're not gonna' have it, we're not gonna' put up with it.

There he goes, chasing after the women's vote again...

So that's a "no".

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 23, 2020, 09:26:52 PM »
Boom.  And just like that, today saw the highest number of new daily cases reported in the country since the beginning of the pandemic, 81,210 new cases according to Worldometer.

Your wrong on that. Trumps said during the 2016 election that he was gong to place his business into a blind trust but he never did it.

"Trump has served as president while holding on to his hundreds of businesses. He has continued to promote his Trump-branded properties, spending roughly a third of his presidency on his business interests."

I'm frankly curious whether William will be able to acknowledge this point.  It's not exactly contentious...

Darn those fake news reporters at fake news Foxnews the fake fake news organization: Jacqui Heinrich: Fox News

Jacqui Heinrich

I completed searching all of Tony Bobulinski’s emails. They establish:
  • the “Chairman” is China.
  • NO ROLE for Joe Biden in emails/docs
  • Tony Bobulinski states himself there are NO OTHER MEMBERS besides Hunter Biden, Jim Biden, Rob Walker, James Gillar, and Bobulinski
1:18 AM · Oct 23, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

He doesn't smell like toast...

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 23, 2020, 03:00:42 PM »
Yeah, but I'm not asking about rational input here - I'm trying to get my head around the accusation that Trump thinks he is making...

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 23, 2020, 12:28:16 PM »
So, the president continues to blame China not just for the virus, but also seemingly every single effect associated to the virus (see "I take full responsibility. It’s not my fault that it came here. It’s China’s fault")

Putting aside that Trump is responsible for his own actions, which might just have had effects also (I know, a crazy thought...) what exactly does that mean?  Is he blaming China for being the geographical location of the first infections?  Is he blaming China's 'cultural practices' of harvesting wild foods?  Was it that China targeted the USA for the infection - and if so, how? If another country was the source of an infection - say, swine flu - would it then be that country's 'fault'?

I take full responsibility. It’s not my fault

This, in a nutshell...

Somebody, please, call this man a whaaaaambulance:

Excuse me, no, no, your first statement to me “this is going to be tough questions”.  Well, I don’t mind that. When you set up the interview you didn’t say that. You said “let’s have a lovely interview.”  And here’s what I do say: you don’t ask Joe Biden - I saw your interview with Joe - the interview with Joe Biden - it was a joke. The interview with 60 minutes.  I see Joe Biden getting softball after softball...

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 22, 2020, 04:38:32 PM »
Oh, you mean the Emperor's New Polls, set up by his sycophants to feed his ego?

Or are these "real polls" published along with their methodology?

You would think... except, this: What Republican internal polling can actually tell us:

I looked at more than a dozen of these partisan polls released to the public from House and Senate races since the major party conventions in August. These partisan polls are notoriously unreliable, and none of them meet CNN standards for reporting.

The reason is simple: Partisans don’t want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll.

That’s why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls.

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 22, 2020, 12:19:46 PM »
Also "proved", "accurate", and "real"

General Comments / Re: Voting mechanisms
« on: October 22, 2020, 11:28:48 AM »
Trump's Army has kicked off their voter intimidation program:

The Sheriff [Bob Gualtieri] told me the persons that were dressed in these security uniforms had indicated to sheriff’s deputies that they belonged to a licensed security company and they indicated—and this has not been confirmed yet—that they were hired by the Trump campaign,” said Marcus in a video interview with 8 On Your Side’s Chip Osowski Wednesday night.

There is almost no chance that these men were actually hired by the Trump campaign, and the Trump campaign has denied they were involved. Of course, this was completely expected to happen, and people warned about it happening, after Trump encouraged people to do just this on numerous occasions.

"proven facts" - you seem to be suggesting that significant numbers of non-Murdoch rags are running with the story.

I don't think they are, but please, point out which media entities are running with the 'story'.  Which media actually have access to the laptop in question?   And of those that do not have access to the laptop, which of them are reporting blindly on the contents thereof?

Or was that whole post a non-sequitur, and had nothing to do with my pointing out that most media are ignoring the click bait?

Time will tell, but for now, with a few notable exceptions of Murdoch rags, the media is notably not biting because the evidence that they all have is limited to what Giuliani has said and what the NY Post has reported.

Basically, they can safely report on the existence of the Giuliani claims, and on the existence of the NY Post story, but not actually about the 'substance' of those claims.  They can also report on the FBI's "no comment"...

It seems like somebody is using the words "real", "confirmed", "all" "charged" and "crime" to mean something different from what normal people do when they use those words.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 21, 2020, 05:26:02 PM »
Is this just how 2020 works, now?  Why are (relatively) famous US men getting caught on video playing with themselves?

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 21, 2020, 03:02:43 PM »
US 7-day average new cases per day - this does not bode well:

2020-10-20   60,915
2020-10-18   57,674
2020-10-16   55,948
2020-10-14   53,156
2020-10-12   50,695
2020-10-10   48,885
2020-10-08   47,064
2020-10-06   44,477
2020-10-04   43,853
2020-10-02   42,788
2020-09-30   42,730
2020-09-28   41,656
2020-09-26   41,523
2020-09-24   41,315
2020-09-22   41,274
2020-09-20   41,624
2020-09-18   40,981
2020-09-16   39,363
2020-09-14   37,472
2020-09-12   35,578

Since when are refugees and immigrants considered to be not "free Persons" (i.e., slaves?)

We've gotta get the attorney general to act. He's gotta act. And he's gotta act fast.

This is major corruption and this has to be known about before the election.

He's openly calling for the Attorney General to use his office to interfere in the election.

I am pleased to inform you that, for the sake of accuracy in reporting, I am considering posting my interview with Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes, PRIOR TO AIRTIME! This will be done so that everybody can get a glimpse of what a FAKE and BIASED interview is all about...

<munches popcorn>

I guess you didn't notice the "/Sarc" tag.

As an aside, you don't think that anything written here has any effect in the real world, do you?

Speaking of the cookie jar, I wonder whether the NY Post will run with this one:

In 2017 Trump Int'l Hotels Management — the company with a Chinese bank account — reported an unusual $17m revenue spike, more than the previous 5 years combined. It was accompanied by a $15m withdrawal by Trump from the company’s capital account.

OMG - Trump is a proven criminal!  What with all the Republican candidates already scurrying from the ship, I wonder if they have time to replace him on the ticket?? /Sarc

So. About California and a few other Democratic strongholds with large populations of illegal immigrants that they want to have counted towards their population for the purpose of allocating seats in the House of Representatives even though those persons are unable to vote?
What does the number of "illegal immigrants" have to do with anything as concerns the census? 

"counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed.”

I guess you are not an originalist...

Oh William, you are adorable!

<snerk> the only people who are buying into the recent Giuliani/Russia dump are those who also still have hopes that pizzagate is going to bear fruit, and think that Trump will save the world from pedophiles.

General Comments / Re: Who will be next to speak out about Trump?
« on: October 20, 2020, 08:21:38 PM »
Internationally... we'll just have to agree to disagree, unless the goal is to blow up international treaties with allies, reduce the country's stature, facilitate, even encourage, Iran's nuclear ambitions not to mention that complete mess he made with China and North Korea.  Let's not even start on Russia.

His only bright spot were the two recent Israel/Arab peace deals.

They don't want votes counted days before polls close ...
They weren't to be counted - they were going to be sorted.  Of course there is literally no evidence that the numbers would have been leaked anyway, so even that's a bit of a red herring.
Wolf this summer asked for counties to be allowed to start sorting mail-in ballots 15 days before Nov. 3

As for Maryland... I expect you don't have children, TheDaemon, or did you teach them that "two wrongs make a right", too? If there was significant gerrymandering in Maryland, that would also be a problem. But what does the Maryland house of delegates look like?  Well, Democrats garnered 65.5% of the vote, as compared to 32.6% for the Republicans.  And the seat counts?  Dems got 99 to the Repubs 42, or 70% for Dems and 30% for Repubs.  It would be hard for those numbers to be much more representative.

What about the House elections?  Sure, there were 7 Dems to 1 Republican, but what was the spread?  The one Republican seat won actually had a lower margin of victory than all but one of the Democratic seats won - meaning more Democratic votes were 'wasted' winning those 6 seats than were wasted winning the Republican seat.  Sure, there was gerrymandering that gives rise to a more frequent 7th seat for Democrats - and that is a bad thing.  I am all for using an objective set of metrics to control demonstrably partisan-driven districts. But let's not pretend Maryland is on the same scale as Pennsylvania, where the congressional map was so skewed that the supreme court had to step in.  Now, even though the Dems got 55% of the vote, at least they don't have fewer seats than the Republicans do (each have 9).

However, there are exactly 10 states (20% of all states) where both the upper and lower state houses are held by the party that got fewer votes than did the opposition party.

In all 10 cases, those legislatures are held by Republicans.  You can "what about" all day long, but it doesn't change the fact that Republicans are currently the party of disenfranchising voters for the purposes of getting themselves elected.

General Comments / Re: Who will be next to speak out about Trump?
« on: October 20, 2020, 07:20:00 PM »
Retired Navy Adm. William McRaven, the former head of US Special Operations Command who oversaw both the successful raid that killed Osama bin Laden and the capture of Saddam Hussein:

Obviously, you know, as a senior retired military officer, these are challenging times, and there’s a little bit of an unwritten rule that senior officers don’t come out and endorse a candidate.  However, I felt that the direction of the country was heading in such a bad direction that we needed new leadership and that Joe Biden will be a much, much better leader than Donald Trump.

The one thing I know about leadership, Jake, is that if you are going to lead in challenging times, you have to build alliances; you have to build coalitions; you have to have friends and allies. And we’ve got a lot of challenges ahead of us: we’ve got a rising China; we’ve got an aggressive Russia; we’ve got North Korea with ICBMs that may be nuclear-tipped soon. And of course we’ve got the second wave of the pandemic.

You cannot confront those challenges unless you have alliances.  And this president has proven that he doesn’t want alliances domestically, and he doesn’t want alliances internationally.

Maybe the most compelling argument in favor of it all being true is the sheer ineptitude it would take to not frame him better.

Ironically, it is the only part of all this that gave me any pause whatsoever.  The story is so unbelievable it could not have been planned.

Also - who outside of a small IT department has 3 laptops that need to be serviced at the same time?  And anybody owning a MacBook (never mind 3 of them) is not dropping dropping it off with a blind repairman, instead of an Apple Store.

And for a little more context: the Democratic governor proposed allowing early votes to be sorted starting 2 weeks in advance of election day - but the Republican held legislature responded by agreeing to a 3 day period, but in 'return' demanded that drop boxes be banned.  Why would they think that improving the speed of processing of votes would need to be countered by making it more difficult for people to vote altogether?  I think we all know why, even if some of us cannot admit to the reason.

Despite spending $1 million on new equipment to open envelopes and count mail-in ballots quicker, Lawrence Jr. said it'll still take days to count a quarter million ballots without action by lawmakers and Gov. Tom Wolf to allow for sorting before Nov. 3.

"People have to know we will not have results on election night if we can’t pre-canvass," Lawrence Jr. said, using the term for early counting. "Even with the equipment we have, it’s still a labor intensive process. It took us 17 days in the primary to count (105,000) mail-in ballots. We’ll have a better process in place, but we'll have many more ballots."

Wolf, a Democrat, and the Republican-controlled Legislature are stuck in a logjam over the issue. Wolf this summer asked for counties to be allowed to start sorting mail-in ballots 15 days before Nov. 3. Republicans in the General Assembly have countered three days, but included that offer in a bill that would ban drop boxes throughout the state.

Yes, laws put in place by - wait for it - Republicans.

Oh, and for a little context: During the 2018 Pennsylvania House of Representatives election, the Democrats won 55% of the vote, to the Republicans 44%.  So you would think that it must be the Dems' fault, right?  Except that garnering 55% of the votes was only enough to win 46% of the seats - whereas the Republicans 44% of the vote translated into 54% of the seats.

And the Republicans are using those state seats to disenfranchise voters.  Of course it's harder to do when you are that far in the minority, but they are giving it the old college try.

... or a likely explosion in the number of COVID-19 cases...

Trump apparently shocked - shocked I say - that Pennsylvania will count actual votes:

We got a ruling yesterday where they can count ballots after the election's over, what kind of a thing— so what does that mean, we're going to wait until after Nov. 3 and start announcing states?

In a state where Republicans blocked votes from being processed before election day, then tried to block votes from being counted after election day, you have to wonder... why? Why do they not want votes counted?

Well, he actually admitted that some of his actions were motivated by how unfairly the president was being treated: "MacIsaac, the owner, said several times how he felt Mr. Trump was treated unfairly during his impeachment trial and suggested if the alleged documents are true, the "sham" impeachment was reason to release them."  So yeah, that is somewhat relevant.

Especially when you consider the damning email, an email about having a coffee, was a 4-year old email, that was accidentally viewed and just so happened to have been identified as "significant" ("oh my goodness - this 4 year old email, that just happened to open accidentally on my screen, shows this guy asking about meeting again, and thanking him for the previous meeting! This requires immediate analysis!") 

Is it possible?  Maybe.  Is it likely?  Are there other explanations that fit the facts?  Hmmm...

And I have no idea why one would focus on him not being as blind as he said he is.  He admitted to not being able to identify "Biden" visually; he only knew who he claimed to have been dealing with when "Biden" gave his name.

Personally, I would be really, really, leery about hanging my hat on any of this, because it is so questionable for so many reasons.  It makes me wonder why people are so keen on accepting it as unvarnished truth.

"COVID mask concealment"... you seem to be contending that Biden was wearing masks back in mid 2019.  Now that would have not only been an abundance of caution, but also impressive prescience.

CBS news interviewed Mr MacIsaac and yes, he does characterize himself as "legally blind".

MacIsaac, the owner, said several times how he felt Mr. Trump was treated unfairly during his impeachment trial and suggested if the alleged documents are true, the "sham" impeachment was reason to release them. He also repeatedly mentioned his girlfriend left him after he voted for Trump in 2016.

Yeah, yeah - fake news, blah, blah, blah.

Is it your contention that polling companies are unaware of voter affiliation, or that they are unaware of how voter affiliation has changed and do not take voter affiliation into consideration?  Because ascertaining voter affiliation is a part of almost every single poll.

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