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Messages - Grant

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1
General Comments / Whose cell/womb is it anyways?
« on: May 02, 2022, 11:10:00 PM »
Politico publishes a draft of a SCOTUS ruling that would "overturn Roe v. Wade". 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473

Gather your feces
They are coming for your womb
Who wants a baby?

And just when abortions are starting to come back up again! 

States mostly heavily effected include: New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Florida, and Connecticut.  I mean, the women of Mississippi will be effected as well, just not quite as much. 

Anyways, the poop is once more hitting the fan.  Because that is the industry.  Crisis is their brand. 

Two and a half thousand women had abortions in New Jersey in 2017.  Out of about four and a half million women.

I am consistently amazed at what drives other people nuts in America.  But do go on.

2
Briefly:

Ukrainians claiming they wounded Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, in a high level meeting in Izium, after he was sent by Pooter to pit some fire in the Russian offensive. Claims he was wounded bad enough he was flown back to Moscow. Shrapnel in leg.

Demonstrates the value and abity of the Ukrainian intel gathering, and NATO intel gathering being shared. 

UN led evacuation of civilians from Azovstal. Good for the UN. First thing Ive heard them getting done in awhile.

3
Update:

Confirmed that Ukrainian reserves have been sent into the Severodonetsk Salient and the area around Slovyansk, instead of being concentrated for a counter-attack southeast of Kharkiv.  This means that the Ukrainian forces in the Salient and fighting south of Izium are not strong enough or have been degraded enough that they cannot withstand the Russian attacks by themselves.  This means more grinding, no sweeping Ukrainian counterattack that can end the war in Donbas. 

The Russians are piling on the attacks south of Izium and around Severodonetsk.  They are making very slow grinding progress, but progress nonetheless.  At this rate it could take weeks or months to effect a breakthrough or Russian victory.  But the Russians are currently gaining ground.  The hard part has always been and will remain just how degraded the Ukrainians are after 2+ months of fighting. 

The Ukrainians have had some success counterattacking around Kharkiv.  Some people say that this will draw the Russians back to reinforce, but I don't agree.  I think the Russians can retreat back across the Russian border and they'll be safe there.  I don't think the Ukrainians will send large ground formations into Russia.  There are some reasons that it would be a good idea and some reasons that it would be a bad idea, but I don't think they will do it.  So the Ukrainians will just have to sit on the border because they cannot redeploy as long as the Russians are sitting getting fat and happy right across the border.  What they NVA would do in Laos and Cambodia before we started bombing there, but never sending large ground formations for fear of "expanding the war". 

Rumors that the Russians are going to declare actual war, (not just a "special operation") and general mobilize on the 5th of May.  Or was it the 9th of May?  They got May Day and Victory Day.  Anyways, what does this mean?

There are plenty of people who do not believe that the Russians can really mobilize much better than they already have.  In certain aspects they are correct.  The Russians cannot really make more advanced equipment (tanks, IFV, artillery, ballistic missiles, etc).  They have some old stuff in storage but it's really old.  T-64s and T-55s.  What they can do is make Rife Divisions.  Going back old school WW2 Soviet infantry formations.  They have plenty of AK-47s.  How many can they make?  I don't know, but I guess they can make ten to 20 Rifle divisions easy if they want to.  That's a lot of Russians, and it's basically going back to the old Soviet way of war anyways.  Quantity having a quality all of it's own. 

The only think I would hesitate on is that they don't really have an officer corps sitting around on the wings to lead these Rifle Divisions.  They would have to mobilize a whole bunch of old reservists to man them. 

Anyways, the thing the Russians have always had is manpower.  They can try to fall back on that and see how it works in a modern war.  Americans were always forced to fall back on superior artillery and airpower when faced with similar adversaries in Korea and Vietnam.  Ukraine doesn't have a whole lot of airpower and is just now getting more artillery that will take a while to integrate. 


4
Been awhile since an update:

Russians continue attacks along the Donets Line and Sverodonetsk Salient.  Main push seems to be coming south from Izium.  That's nothing new. 

Russians are not breaking through but are inching closer to Barvikove.  They don't seem to have pushed past Kurulka or Nova Dmitrivka.  So no real advances in the last few days.  So much for the "main effort". 

Heavy fighting around Severdonetsk.  But no advances there either. 

The Ukrainians have not made any major counteroffensives.  The latest movement is actually coming from north of Kharkiv, looks like Ukrainians are trying to attack on the Russian far right flank, cutting off the Russians falling back around Kharkiv from their line of retreat back to Belgorod. 

The Russians do appear to be advancing on the axis south of Izium, but it is painfully slow. 

I keep hearing suggestions of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive southeast of Kharkiv.  Hasn't happened yet. 

The rumor mill is starting to go nuts and there are too many grifters now involved in reporting on Ukraine.  It's helpful to remind everyone just how many liars there are in the world, and that they'll often do it just for attention. 

We're not quite in WW1 or in WW2 or GW1 or GW2 or anywhere else.  This feels like two exhausted opponents in the 10th round of a fight, just trying to throw a punch now and then. 

5
General Comments / Re: The Ministry of Truth Created
« on: April 29, 2022, 02:46:43 PM »
It's good to know who is still hooked up to the right wing useful idiot diarrhea dispensing sphincter.  It also helps illuminate who has actually read Orwell. 

I'd like you members of the human centipede that is certain information purveyors, to actually draw some similarities, and some differences, between the Ministry of Truth, and a board set up under the Department of Homeland Security in the United States.  Go on.  Give it a go.  Let's actually do a comparison.  Instead of spraying feces all over the eyes and minds of others.  What are the powers, mission, and authority of the Ministry of Truth in Oceana? How about the Department of Homeland Security in the US and this board?

While you're at it, can you make some comparisons between what this board would supposedly be doing and what CISA has been doing about misinformation.  Or the FBI?  Or the Department of State? 

Can you explain to me the recommendations made by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in it's report on Russian Active Measures Campaigns and Interference in the 2016 US Election.  A committee headed by Marco Rubio.  A Republican.  With seven other Republicans on it.  Can you explain why people like Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, a Republican, are introducing bills like "Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act"?   A Bill that calls for the establishment of centers to "to coordinate the sharing among government agencies of information on foreign government information warfare efforts, including information provided by recipients of information access fund grants awarded using funds made available under subsection (e) and from other sources, subject to the appropriate classification guidelines"?  A bill that was sponsored by Adam Kinzinger, a Republican (except to Trumpists) in the House of Representatives?

Now, I understand this information was not meant for people who ask questions.  Or people who can read.  Or people who can research.  Or people who can smell bull*censored* a mile away.  I understand that the people who posted it to this board did not actually come up with this lovely piece of political commentary.  They're just repeating it from the sphincter.  Passing it along to the next person in the human centipede. 

But please pass along to the sphincter in front of you:  This is not the way to reverse 2020.  This is the way to repeat it.  The people you lost in 2020, are not going to come back because of stupid crap like this.  Really, all you have to do is STFU for 4 years and let the Democrat screw ups do all the work for you.  But the Diadochi must distinguish themselves, apparently.  And their way of doing this is to get on FNC as much as possible.  And the best way to do that, is to crap out some hyperbole. 

You embarrass me.  You embarrass George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, Barry Goldwater, Milton Friedman, Bill Buckley, and Hank Hill. 

6
General Comments / Re: Madison Cawthorn, Too Stupid to Serve?
« on: April 28, 2022, 03:55:24 PM »
I did not want to be too obvious.

Mea culpa

7
General Comments / Re: Madison Cawthorn, Too Stupid to Serve?
« on: April 28, 2022, 01:13:31 PM »

8
Any rumblings coming from Chechnya

None that I know of.  I know the Chechens sent some troops to help Russia, and some Chechens are allied with Ukraine.  I think there were some videos linking the Chechens under Kadyrov to the siege of Mariupol.  Some analysts have shown the videos to be not exactly forthcoming in what they are purporting.  (They say they are filming from Ukraine, gas station behind them shows they are in Russia, etc).  That's about it. 

9
Unconfirmed reports that the Russians are breaking through south of Izium, towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Barvinkove.  It seems like the itel that the big push would be on the 26th might have been correct.  If it's true, it's bad news for the Ukrainians in the Sverodonetsk salient. 

Ok.  So the latest from the Ukrainian General Staff is that the Russians advanced from Izium but were stopped around Nova Dymtrivka.  This is sure an advance by the Russians of about 10 km, but not really a breakthrough. 

Nova Dymtrivka is just a village to the NE of Barvnikove, only about 12 klicks away.  So the railhead is definitely within artillery range if they bring their guns up. 


In other news, the Ukrainians also hit an ammo dump in Belgorod, continuing their magical attacks into Russia, with either stealth UAVs or SOF teams, or maybe even Russian saboteurs. 

Russians making more noise about attacking Poland to stop flow of foreign weapons into Ukraine.

Wesley Clark/CNN > Barry McCaffrey/MSNBC.  Feel sorry for Jack Keane at FNC.  He really doesn't have anybody to pitch to him over there.  Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino just cannot compete with people like Wolf Blitzer.  Sad. 

Russia cutting off the gas to Poland and Bulgaria.  It's already been brought up, but supporting the war effort isn't just about weapons and intel.  It's also going to be about economic support.  The money Ukraine is going to need to rebuild and become the West Germany of Eastern Europe is going to dwarf the money we have spent so far on weapons aid.  This economic support needs to include energy support in the form of LNG for Europe.  We have plenty.  We need to encourage the energy sector to start moving.  The industry needs to ramp up fast.  Europe needs to do their part and bring back nuclear energy.  The alternative is millions of Europeans with no power, their economies taking a massive hit, and people freezing to death in the winter. 


10
Grant, any idea if the Jews will let Ukraine borrow their space laser?

If they'd ever get to there in those long ass Illuminati meetings.  They spend too much time drinking blood out of the skulls of Goyim.  Personally, I'm disappointed that the weather control satellites are not on the table.  Or at least some Iron Dome missiles. 

11
There has always been an underlying worry about how the war in Ukraine could spill over back into Russian territory.  It was one of the concerns in the early air war, particularly if NATO or the US actually got involved. It continued to be a concern up til now, since Ukraine has the opportunity to strike targets in Russia using NATO supplied equipment.  It has to be a concern in the future if Ukraine wins the war and starts wondering about grabbing Rostov Oblast with NATO supplied equipment. 

The UK somewhat clarified their view, with their Minister of Defense, James Heappey stating that attacks on Russian soil using western equipment was "legitmate".  As Omar Little would say, "It's all part of the game".  This follows suspected Ukrainian attacks on an oil depot in Belgorod.  Lavrov has said this means that the NATO arms shipments in Poland are now fair game. 

As the Joker would say "Cumon, I want you to do it. HIT ME!". 

12
Barry McCaffrey, hero of Desert Storm, commander of the 24th ID in greatest flanking maneuver in history of warfare, and old Drug Czar, who has been warning about American involvement in Ukraine and "World War 3!TM" on MSNBC for the past two months, suddenly cannot fathom why Pooter would threaten nuclear war over a failed conventional invasion!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where is the emjoi of my head exploding!

"I've dealt with nuclear strategy much of my life" he writes. 

What is with it with smart people? 

It was never about American or NATO troops shooting at Russian troops. It's never been about that. It's been about losing.  Now Pooter is losing in Ukraine, so he's threatening nuclear war.  I said this a month ago.  Two months ago. 

13
Unconfirmed reports that the Russians are breaking through south of Izium, towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Barvinkove.  It seems like the itel that the big push would be on the 26th might have been correct.  If it's true, it's bad news for the Ukrainians in the Sverodonetsk salient. 

Waiting on confirmation.

I expect Slovyansk and Kramatorsk to have defense in depth.  But with what kinds of units, I don't know. 

If the big push is happening, this would now be the time for the Ukrainians to hit hard south of Kharkiv again.   


14

The Russian propaganda machine has found receptive audiences in right wing nationalist audiences throughout the US and Europe.

Ehhhh. 

Which kind of nationalists? 

I don't mean to derail, but just a brief spur before getting back on the main track:

Cause I don't think Russia is attracting the hard core white nationalists.  Russia says they are invading to "de-nazify", suggesting nazis are bad.  Probably not great for nazi fans. 

The white bread nationalists probably are not on board either.  Since what Ukraine is doing is the very definition of late 1800s, early 1900s nationalism.  Like, Ukrainians are a people and has been a separate country and should remain a different country. 

In the middle are some people who might think they are nationalists, or say they are nationalists, but they are really just radicalized anti-progressives.  To the point that anybody who is stomping the gays, or the euros, or the woke, or the libs, or immigrants, or the rich globalists, are their new heroes.  Guys that write for The American Conservative.  Some of the people who wish they write for The American Conservative but unfortunately write for National Review because the fervent anti-populists left in 2018/2019 and they needed somebody to write for them and they're just not crazy enough for The American Conservative.  Their heroes are The Great 5th Grade Communicator and Orban and LePen and Pooter.  Because they trigger the left.  Because they have an enemy and anyone who attacks their enemy is their friend.  You know, Tucker Carlson, Greg Gutfeld, Rod Dreher, Rich Lowery, Michael Brendan Doherty, and Sohrab Amari.  The people whose hatred of Hillary Clinton is only equaled by their hatred of David French.   Honestly, they probably hate David French more, because Hillary Clinton completely ignores then while David French does not.  Trumpists.  Not nationalists, white or otherwise. 

15
Russia sends diplomatic note to Washington, demanding that SECDEF Austin stop hugging DEFMIN of Ukraine Reznikov, calling it an escalation. 

16
General Comments / Re: #Tweetstorm 14:1-5
« on: April 26, 2022, 03:37:05 PM »
I am soooooooooooooooooooooooooo sorry. 

I just thought it was funny.  I knew some people were going to light their hair on fire and I thought it was humorous.

I didn't know it would CONSUME, like Hungry Mungry itself, all conversation and thought in the "public square". (More like a public urinal, where everybody is doing coke off used toilet paper). 

Cause I just DNGAF. 


17
General Comments / Re: #Tweetstorm 14:1-5
« on: April 25, 2022, 03:03:52 PM »
On the ethical side of things, I don't see why a board should have any say in whether someone who wants to run the company shouldn't be allowed to buy stock in it.

Alexander Lebedev wants to buy large amounts of Raytheon. 

Liverpool F.C. wants to buy large amounts of stock in Manchester U.


18
General Comments / Re: #Tweetstorm 14:1-5
« on: April 25, 2022, 01:30:40 PM »
I dunno.  If he lets L'Orange back into Twitter a whole bunch of Progressives and Libs may be heading over to Truth Social, lol. 

19
My guess is that once Russia solidify their gains they will declare victory perhaps hoping that the US "accepts" the situation as it did when the Crimea was taken
 
Politically in the US I expect to see a more focused move towards Putin, justifying his actions.

Problem is that Pooter hasn't achieved any of his stated goals in Ukraine.  He can continue to move the goalposts, as he did with Kyiv, but he's running out of opportunities to spin a victory.  He doesn't seem to be doing well taking the rest of the Donbas.  He is barely holding on to Kherson.  He's running out of time and nobody seems to be running to support the end of the war except the certain elements most afraid of "World War 3!TM" and the straight up Putinverstehen. 

The moves to justify Putin have gotten nowhere.  Yes, they are out there, but they're being clobbered.  Nobody but the fringe is accepting their BS that they have been shoveling for 8 years since Crimea anymore.   Ukraine is one of the only major bipartisan things we have going now. 

Every day Ukraine grows stronger and Russia grows weaker.  The endgame is coming.  Prepare your souls. 

20
General Comments / #Tweetstorm 14:1-5
« on: April 25, 2022, 01:08:05 PM »
Twitter about to accept Elon Musk's $43 billion offer.  Wherethen Musk will be transfigured into CapitalistGesus and there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. 

21
Somebody is blowing stuff up in Russia.  Fuel depots.  Office buildings in Moscow. 

Don't know who it is.  Don't know how.  But whomever they are, they're doing it pretty well. 

SBU? SZR?  PSU?  CIA?  MI6?  Russian disaffected? 

22
Zelensky says Blinken and Austin are coming to visit on Easter (Eastern Orthodox), tomorrow.  Not sure if this was a security slip or not.  I don't think the Democrats will let Grandpa President go.  They freaked out over the idea of him going when Zelensky first made the invitation about a month ago.   He's not just the President of the United States to them.  He's kinda like the John Connor of the Democratic Party.  If he dies, the machines will win and the Democratic Party fall. 

Good for Blinkin and Austin.  Should send the VP as well if Grandpa President isn't going to go.  But whatever.  Honestly, Blinkin and Austin would be the best choices.  You could send SACEUR or CJCS but they may defect, lol. 





 

23
Heh heh.  Turkey will no longer allow Russia to fly it's warplanes through Turkish airspace to get to Syria.  Somebody said they would have to fly through Iran, but I don't see how they would not also have to fly through Iraq as well.  Pretty much screws Russia's operations in Syria. 

Good day. 

24
Day 57 of "Forever War III".  (They last forever when certain people don't want to fight or win). 

Russians have declared victory in Mariupol.  The Ukrainians are still have 1,500 or more troops holed up in the Azovstal Steel Plant and the port area.  But the Russians have basically stopped trying to root them out.  They're just going to starve them. No telling how long that is going to take.  Or if the Ukrainians are managing to get supplies in somehow from the sea.  The Azovstal steel plant is a maze of tunnels and bunkers.  The tunnels go as far as six stories underground and the area was built to withstand a nuclear attack.  One analyst I've read suggests the only way to clear it out would be to use chemical weapons. 

Counter-attacks made by the Ukrainians southeast of Kharkiv earlier in the week seem to have been consolidated, but have gone no further towards cutting the supply routes for the Russians attempting to attack south of Izium.  The Russians did have to move their MSR for the Russians south of Izium from Belgorod to the Valuyki Kupaiansk rail line.  Further attacks southeast of Kharkiv by the Ukrainians could cut this rail line, but would require advancing 50 to 70km.  Other options include SOF operations to damage rail lines or blow bridges.  Any such attack now would probably face counterattack by the Russians in Izium, since they have not pushed far enough south towards Barvinkove or Slovyansk.  Intel seems to point at the Izium area as the main thrust for the Russians new campaign to take the Donbas.  So far, probing attacks against the Ukrainian positions have not yielded any gains.  The forward edge of the Russian lines are now 20 km from Barvinkove.  Taking the rail station would cut the main rail line of supply for the Ukrainian forces in the Severdonetsk Salient and the Donets Line.  They are probably already within striking distance if they decide to bring their artillery up. 

Large scale attacks on the Severodonetsk Salient.  Doesn't look like a bunch of gains yet. 

Nothing yet seems to indicate the Russians are pulling forces out of the siege of Mariupol to attack northwest towards Pokrovsk. 

Declaring victory in Mariupol seems to be a desperate Russian attempt to get a victory somewhere, after the failure of the northern front to seize Kyiv and the loss of the Moskva. 

Most glaring is the Ukrainian failure to capitalize on their earlier counterattacks during the week.  They are either waiting for the Russians to put their heads deeper in the sack, or they do not have the forces or logistics capable of making a 50-70km armored/mechanized advance.  Or they are choosing not to counter-attack for whatever reason.  Caution.  Lack of confidence.  Defensive mentality.  Whatever.   

Nothing has changed on my earlier assessments.  Likely that the war continues on through May or longer, with stalemate being the order of business until the Russians break politically or the Ukrainians get more heavy weapons and air defense capabilities.  The Ukrainian air defenses in the Donbas do not seem to be on the same level as the air defense around Kyiv. 

It's good the Ukrainians are getting all these artillery pieces and drones and air defense platforms, but I don't know what their fuel status is right now.  Nobody has been talking about their logistics, other than the things they ask for on their Christmas lists.  I guess they have enough fuel and fuel trucks.  The Russians have not, I think, began using strategic bombers against targets other than Mariupol.  This could weaken Ukrainian defenses in Severodonetsk and the Donets Line. 

The endgame is still coming.  Just being kicked down the road. 

25
I hope its not to late and wonder if that will change how the Russians seem to deploy. Those long convoys just begging to be taken out.

It's probably a bit late for what is going on now, which doesn't seem to be too much but it's still early and the original reports said the Russians wouldn't have all their ducks lined up til the 26th.  A timeline which has probably been disrupted. 

Trainers need to be trained in Germany or the US or wherever.  Then they need to go back and train the operators.  Then you need a real air logistics campaign flying everything into Poland, or using trains to bring them from France, Holland, etc.  Offload.  Turn over to new troops somewhere in Western Ukraine. Put them back on another train and bring them to Eastern Ukraine.  Disembark.  Link up with assigned units.  Two months at the least is my guess.  Maybe one month for some of the stuff. 

The Russians have always had problems with their traffic jams.  Security means staying minimum 50 m apart when artillery is a threat. It slows things down, makes command and control a bit more difficult.  I guess we'll see how the Russians can learn from their mistakes.  Havn't seen a lot of evidence for it. 

The most glaring thing missing is heavy tanks.  Which are going to take a bunch more time to train on, and even more time to train mechanics on.  Especially for the ones with turbine engines.  But that's just the Abrams.  It would take awhile to get them from the US.  We have plenty extra in Germany stored up.  Just started giving Poland 200. But I wouldn't recommend M1s.  The logistics tail is too big because of the engine.  The best solution would be Leopard 2s from Germany, but the Germans  ::)  . 

Still nothing on for fighter jets.  Heard they are at least getting spare parts.  Now would be the time to train people to fly F-15Cs.  Not sure about F-16s.  The air to ground capability can triple the length of training.  I suppose it couldn't hurt to start.  No telling how long this thing can last between Russia and Ukraine if it stays stalemated.  I keep hearing how Russia cannot keep the war up, but I was hearing the same BS about how the Russian Army couldn't stay in the field for much longer back in late February.  Staying in the field is what armies do, and suffering is what Russians do.  It's the normal state of affairs. 

What we really need to do is get those MiG-29s to them and then figure out a way to get AIM-120s to work on MiG-29s. 

Here is to a very long war in Ukraine, which will apparently make the shareholders of Chase Manhattan and the American public happy, or the shareholders of Raytheon, and the Germans taking money from Russia.  Whatever.  Since we don't want to end the war in a week. 

26
France providing Caesar self propelled 155s (propelled by a truck chassis, not an enclosed tracked chassis).   (Why on earth would the French make a weapons systems named after an Italian that conquered France?  OK, a Roman that conquered Gaul.  It's actually an acronym.  Straight out of GI Joe/Cobra.  CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie.  Means "truck with an artillery piece".)

Canada providing M777 towed 155s.

But the Dutch apparently win the artillery Santa Claus award for giving over PzH 2000 self propelled 155s (enclosed and tracked). 

So it's apparently Gunbunny Christmas for the Ukrainian Army.  St Barbara about to be the next patron saint of Ukraine, next to St Olga, St Josaphat, and Our Lady of the Javelin. 

27
Russian has zero grounds for war. Its completely pointless. I'm waiting for the Russian people to come to that realization. the people of Russia people gain nothing even if they win

I don't know if the majority of the Russians really see it that way.  Some of them do, but I don't think the majority of them do.  I think the majority of Russians, particularly the rural ones, see the Ukraine as a kind of break away country that rightly belongs with Russia as part of a supernation superpower.  They see themselves as one people really, and themselves (Russians) the victims of central and western European powers and the United States wanting to break them up and keep them poor.  They see Ukraine as under the evil influence of the United States, NATO, and the shareholders of Chase Manhattan. 

I don't think it is that hard to imagine if you consider how some people would feel if the United States suffered some kind of economic collapse and breakup with someone around to blame for it.  People from Ohio who are "nationalists" may indeed feel that Texas is, with Ohio, part of something bigger and that they should be brought back, by force if necessary, against the evil machinations of Mexico and China, etc. 

I think it's wrong.  But people are crazy stupid everywhere.  I think the Russian people have drunk deep from the BS that has been thrown at them by Pooter and the Russian super-nationalists.

 

28

The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training.  We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow".  We've already crossed the Russian red  line. 

The latest:

I'm reading that the United States is providing 72 towed 155mm howitzers to Ukraine, with 121 recon drones and 144K shells (what type I don't know).  The equivalent of 4 artillery battalions.  A division's worth of guns.  Not bad.  It's not Paladins, but in terms of the most bang for your buck, you can't get better than towed 155s.  A previous package included counter-battery radars and Ukrainian cadre are being trained on the crewing of the artillery and the use of the radars. 

Another previous aid package included 200 M113 APCs.  The 113 is somewhat ancient technology, from the Vietnam era, but some people will tell you that it was the best mechanized infantry carrier ever produced by the US, the Bradley trying to do too much and limiting the amount of infantry it can carry in the process. 

Germany says it can't arm Ukraine because then it wouldn't be able to meet NATO goals.  LOL. 

The Czechs have sent T-72s and BMP-1s. 

Slovakia sent an S-300.

The UK is sending Stormer anti-aircraft vehicles.  I feel the US should be able to dig up some old M6 Linebackers to send.  It's really sad the state of US Army Air Defense.  I feel bad for the ADA officers.  I mean, what do they do after they make Major?  Manage Wal-Marts? 

All of this is a step up in aid and heavy equipment.  An "escalation" as it were.  It seems Pooter isn't the only one who can play "just the tip". 

Still on the Ukrainian wishlist are tanks and fighters.  Equipment that will require even more training and more logistics and more flights to transport.  It's a shame that nobody in NATO has any light tanks anymore.  Heavy tanks are just too expensive and well, too heavy.  We should have continued to develop the AGS.

All this is putting a dent in US war stock.  Particularly for newer stuff like Javelins.  I havn't heard of new US orders for equipment.  I think short of entering the war, being the "arsenal of democracy" is a good thing, but we need to be producing to replace the stuff we are shipping to Ukraine.  Except for the older stuff like the 155s and the 113s. 

29
"What did you do during World War Three, Paw Paw?"

"I fought in the meme wars, pumpkin.  At Twitter and Reddit, and a little place called Ornery. I started a thread called "Why are Republicans/Democrats so stupid?". 

"Oh"


Anyways, things are heating up.  Artillery attacks and slow steady pressure by the Russians all along the Donets Line and the Severdonetsk Salient.  Still no major attempt at a breakthrough in the north or south.  Supposedly the Russians need more time to get all their forces through Belgorod into Izium to their SPs, and the stubborn holdout in Mariupol which I think is delaying any southern arm of an envelopment move.  It would have been a good idea for the Russians to take time to soften up Ukrainian dug in units anyways, unlike what they tried to do at the jump. 

The Ukrainians seem to have decided on a counter-attack focused south of Kharkiv as their answer.  They seem to have been able to penetrate roughly 10 miles out of Chuhuiv over the weekend, threatening to cut the units concentrating in Izium off from supply from the north, and taking them from behind.  I personally think that the Ukrainians are jumping the gun here, and should have waited for the Russians to commit to the offensive and then draw them into the interior, maybe to Barvinkove or Sloviansk, before counter attacking along their northwestern flank.  Draw them into the sack, let them be fixed by forces in those towns, let their flanks be exposed and logistics used up on the attack instead of the defense, THEN hit them in the rear. 

I'm reading one analyst who says that the evidence is that the Russians will attempt to attack down Hwy E40 instead of going towards Barvinkove.  Maybe he's right, because it would simplify the logistics maybe, but the Ukrainians have already dug in pretty good in Sloviank.  You can never count on the Russians to do anything smart, however.

Mariupol will probably fall within a week, but I thought that two weeks ago so go figure.  I'm reading that the Russians are using Backfires to bomb Mariupol.  This is new to me, and signals that Russia has started using their strategic bomber fleet in a tactical role.  Like B-52 arclight missions. 

Worst case scenario:  The Ukrainians are exhausted, and don't get enough new equipment, ammunition, etc, in enough time.  Their new recruits are not as professional despite their "elan" or "esprit".  The Russians, despite being the Keystone Cops of the military world, have learned enough and have enough forces involved to make a breakthrough south of Izium.  The Ukrainian Army in Donbas collapses.  The Ukrainians hold along the Dnieper.  Unlikely but not impossible. 

Best/Worst case scenario:  The Ukrainians have a large enough strategic reserve to effectively counterattack along the Russian's right flank, rolling up the Russian attack in Donbas from Izium, the entire Russian flank begins to collapse.  The Russian army morale hits new lows.  Ukrainians threaten to attack into Crimea or Western Russia.  Poop hits the fan in Moscow.  Pooter attacks with chemical or tac nukes to attempt to force NATO to force Ukraine to negotiate end of the war with Russia still in control of Crimea and Donbas.  Unlikely but probably a better chance than the above scenario.

Middle/worst worst scenario:  The Russians attack but are blunted at Slovyansk and Barvinkove.  The Russians released after Mariupol falls are too exhausted to do much to attack towards Pokrovsk.  The Ukrainians do not have enough of a strategic reserve or do not have the logistics capability or cannot coordinate a multiple BDE or DIV sized counterattack.  The war just grinds on.  We have a new refit/rest phase where the Russians attempt to ready for another push.  As time goes on, NATO and the US continue to allow greater degrees of heavy weaponry into Ukraine, including western aircraft and western armored vehicles/tanks.  Over time, maybe 6 months, maybe 12 months, maybe 2 years, the Ukrainians develop the abilities needed to push the Russians out of Donbas and Crimea.  Pooter, if he is still around, releases chemical or tac nukes or is "removed from the board".   There is no detente.  Cold War 2 develops in earnest in eastern Europe and lasts another 50 years, with the Russians being more paranoid than ever.  The Eastern Europeans develop an alternative alliance to NATO, without Germany and France and Italy.  Most likely centered on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Turkey, Finland, Sweden, Norway, the UK, and maybe the US.  Call it EETO, Eastern European Treaty Organization. Russia, now a second rate power with tons of nuclear weapons, attaches itself to the teat of China.  Likely, but with many levels of variation.  The key here is lack of decisive action over the short term.  Maybe we have chemical/nuclear release, maybe we don't. 

The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training.  We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow".  We've already crossed the Russian red  line.  The Russians can't do anything because guess what? NATO has nukes too and they don't want NATO involved further.  So if the US isn't going to get involved and end the war then it's time to train the Ukrainians on M1s, Bradleys, F-15s, F-16s, Patriots, and Paladins.  If the war is going to drag on, the only way to end the war will be to give the Ukrainians the ability to push back the Russians with superior equipment.  All the time while propping up the Ukrainian economy as much as possible before the entire country falls apart financially.  Personally I find this COA to be more dangerous and less desirable than just entering the war and finishing things on our terms in a week or two.  But public opinion seems to still be opposed and the current administration I think would just like the war to go away so they can get back to the real war, domestic politics in the US. 

30
So, I think Zelensky made a video where he said that the "Battle of Donbas has begun", or something of that nature.  So now everybody on the interwebs is repeating it, so you have to hear it too.  Despite I think Zelensky saying in the same message that it would take another 6 days for the Russians to get all their new BTGs in place. 

Everything is pointing to the Russians making a big push south of Izium.  They only have, I dunno, 15 miles to get to Barvinkove.  It's all farmland but there are all these ravines in there.  Really nice country for a armored or mechanized defense.  All these places to hide and then pop up and hit the Russians on the flanks.  And this may be the first time that the Russians are trying to advance along an axis that doesn't have a major highway to supply them.  They may be going against the grain here, depending on where they actually turn if they are able to take Barvinkove.  I think it may be only another 100 miles to Pokrovsk, but 100 miles through fields and ravines going against the grain can be rough. 

So if the Ukrainians do have a strategic reserve, and have decided to hold it on the defense, or are holding it for a response to the next Russian offense, the best move will be to attack southeast from Kharkiv.  Wait until the Russians exhaust themselves pushing south towards Pokrovsk, let them extend, then take them from behind or from the flank. 

To do this, Ukraine would probably have to deploy as much as possible whatever they have left in Kyiv to the east.  There are still 22 BTGs hanging out in Belarus though. 

The success of the Russians will depend largely on their ability to coordinate a large scale Division sized attack south of Izium, coordinating artillery the entire time.  They have not been able to do this very well so far.  The success of the Ukrainians will depend on if they even have a strategic reserve and what strength their units are operating in the Kramatorsk  area. 

31
So we've been in the mid-game now for, I dunno, a few weeks?  To recap, Ivan pulled out of the north/Keev front and redeployed to the eastern/Donbas front.  No more extended logistics tails.  The Russians are slogging it out inch by inch, attempting to attrit the Ukrainians utilizing artillery and air strikes. 

But at the same time, the Russians can't stop trying to maneuver a little.  It seems to me that their new main effort has been or will be pushing south out of Izium to take Barvinkove, then pressing further south to take Pokrovsk.  This cuts the main lines of supply from Dnipro for the Severdonensk salient and the rest of the Ukraininan forces deployed on the Donets line.  Izium seems to be where they are pushing their units they redeployed from Keev. 

So far, we havn't seen any major counter-attacks by the Ukrainians.  It's possible they don't have a strategic reserve large enough or feel like their best bet is still staying defensive.  Some people are suggesting that the Ukrainians are preparing to counterattack in the south, though Kherson, somehow getting across the Dnipro (I don't know if the E97 bridge is still up), and maybe going for Sevastapol.  The southern front is where the Russians appear the weakest, and where a counterattack could perhaps make the most headway against a major supply depot for the Russians.  Despite some SOF attacks by the Ukrainians inside Russia, it may be different if the Ukrainians actually try to counterattack on the Russian's northern flank with the aim of driving for Belgorod inside Russia.  Personally, I still think this would be the best plan because this would collapse the Russian attack into the Donbas.  But there are political considerations to make if the Ukrainians are now invading Russia and taking Russian cities.  The hope may be if the Ukrainians can take Sevastopol, it would distract the Russians enough in the east, but I'm doubtful. 

All this is occurring against a background of new conscripts being trained in Russia and new conscripts and recruits being trained in Ukraine on additional NATO equipment that is slowly getting there.  Some video evidence seems to suggest that the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrel/depot when it comes to replacing their vehicle losses in Ukraine.  Somebody joked about them pulling T-55s out of museums soon.  Meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting newer and better equipment, but slowly. 

Mariupol still stands and has been really drawing the Russian forces that could be used in the southern pincer move towards Pokrovsk.  Not sure how much longer than can hold out, but they have already held out longer than I expected. 

The Russians paraded the survivors of the Moskva in Moscow.  Somebody counted something like 52 survivors.  Out of a crew of 500.  The Admiral in charge of the Black Sea Fleet was arrested by the FSB.  Some people are worried the Moskva was carrying nuclear weapons.  Not quite sure why.  I doubt SPECTRE will be able to get in there to steal them if they are down there.  Likely they were blown up or severely damaged when the magazine blew.  I suppose they could still salvage the weapons grade uranium. 

Negotiations have seemingly broken down and will probably not start back up again until someone gets the upper hand in the Donbas. 

Some people are suggesting this is great for Ukraine, because it allows them to continue to grind down Russian forces attacking in the Donbas.  But I'm personally not sure. This always comes back to the lack of good visibility on Ukrainian losses.  How well are the Russians now using massed artillery to destroy Ukrainian defensive positions? 

Russians are threatening to move nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland join NATO.  Just to remind them that the alliance is a sham because nobody can fight Russia without risking nuclear war and returning to pre-industrial tech levels. 

I'm reading some optimism in Time magazine online about the effects of the war on global grain supply. 

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Not too sure about that.

I would think a fully loaded long distance bomber like the B-52 might need even longer.

So, best I can tell, from a question on Quora answered by an ex B-52 navigator, a B-52 needs about 13,000 ft to take off for a training flight with bombs and fuel.  A fact sheet says a B-52 needs 4km to takeoff.  Note that you can take off light on fuel and aerial refuel to make things easier. 

According to Wikipedia, 5L/23 R at Wright Patt goes 12600 ft or   Pretty close.  Note that 15/33 at Barksdale only goes 11,738 ft.  A List of the longest airfields in the US shows 28 airfields with lengths longer than 4 km.  According to a webpage by index mundi, the US has 425 airports with paved runways longer than 2,438 meters. 

33
Actually I think we are high on the list because we can land B-52's on our runways.

Yeah, but wouldn't it make sense to just blow up the B-52s at Barksdale?  I mean, you could probably land B-52s at any international airport in the US if you had to. 

34
I live in Dayton OH and give Joe a break.  We have Wright Patterson AFB and would have a large number of nukes heading our way in WWIII

Well I didn't know your name or I would have used IT instead.   ;D

No offense to Wright-Patt, or the men and women of the AFMC or 88th ABW, but I think there are other places on the target list that may get higher priority. 

35
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/14/russia-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine/

After Grandpa President outlines some more arms shipments to Ukraine, Russia sends a nasty-gram. 

Not exactly an ultimatum, it seems.  I havn't seen an actual copy.  Just a warning of unintended consequences.  Russian state media are already calling it "World War 3!TM".  Russia vs NATO.  Seems they are playing by a different set of rules than Joe Snuffy sitting on his lay-z-boy in Dayton, OH. 

Whomever the reporters are talking to seem to believe it may mean the Russians will start targeting NATO supply convoys in Ukraine or NATO weapons depots in Poland.  Curious what would happen if Russia missile attacks Poland (their planes won't make it).  I mean, I have been made to understand that if NATO troops fight Russian troops than we're going to be in "World War 3!TM", which will lead to the world sliding into pre-industrial levels of technology.  Looking to see L'Orange made King of Florida.  Maybe he has DeSantis on a leash like Channing Tatum in 'This is the End". 

Most likely Poland tries to Article 5 but Joe Snuffy in Dayton, OH doesn't feel like risking nuclear de-industrialization. 

Nevertheless, America needs to wake up to the fact that we're in July of 1941.  Wanting to stay out of the war but strangling Japan while shipping arms to China isn't going to fly forever.  Especially when Russia is blaming losing on the NATO support.  Right now, there is some dude in Moscow figuring out how to knock out America with a single strike. 

Edited for spelling mistake

36
convince me: How do we do that

Like I said:  carrot and stick.  Pooter still thinks he can pull out a win and hold the Donbas, then he can escalate to descalate or just hold on.  But I think he's starting to realize he may not be able to do that as well unless he's thinking of a long war into this fall, which again may play against him.  I know he pulled up another 60,000 reserves and new conscriptions are up, but it will take time to train the new conscripts.  Previously, Russia wasn't even supposed to be using conscripts in Ukraine but I think that bubble has popped. 

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How certain are you that his is the Putin's motivation

Look, man... I'm not a clinical psychologist.  I will cop to that.  I'm making my best educated guess based on my knowledge of these people.  I don't think I have any more evidence other than what I have already given.  Some people may have other theories. 

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I think its a mistake to compare Putin with figures in the past and assume he wants and so will react in the same way. I think we are dealing with a new type of personality  here.

I mean, if you're a clinical psychologist, lay some cards out.  Otherwise all I can say is that I think it is a fallacy to somehow assume that Pooter is special in some way.  It's more likely to me that he is just more of the same. 

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What makes you think the Pooter to the values of power, respect etc in the way we traditionally think such SOB's do?

Again, I am assuming that he is not special or unique, because he is far from being the first to do things that he is doing.  He has stated his aims.  He has written and spoken about his motivations and his past.  The guy isn't exactly a cipher.  That said, I'm not a clinical psychologist. 

37
I don't think that is the biggest risk?

I think Putin needs to be taken out of the picture for any 'success' scenario, and that that would be the biggest risk.
How do you do it without him going suicidal and taking as many people with him as possible.

The SOB plays by his own rules.

No.  You just have to convince Pooter that the best thing for him and for Russia is to leave Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe alone.  Carrot and stick.  Leave Ukraine and Crimea.  Stop threatening Eastern Europe. Gas stays on. Sanctions lifted.  No reparations.  No demands for his arrest or trial or whatever.  *censored*, give him a 2million euro dacha in Switzerland and make him Grand Duke of some place in Montenegro. 

All you have to do, is convince him, that WINNING means leaving Ukraine.  Staying in Ukraine means LOSING, for Russia and for Pooter personally. 

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What does that SOB want?

What all of them want.  Power and respect.  It was the same with Wilhelm II and Hitler.  All three believed that at some point they had been humiliated by inferior people.  That they were not being given their due power and respect.  That they were being kept from what was rightfully THEIRS.  For Pooter it was the humiliation of the 1990s.  Having to drive a taxi after being an agent of the vaunted KGB.  For Hitler it was the humiliation of the loss of WWI and the Treaty of Versailles.  For Wilhelm it was those dirty French and English who were conspiring to encircle him and Germany, keeping them from their rightful place in the world.  From the respect he was due as the most powerful monarch in the world.  I mean, it's straight out of a cartoon.  It's straight out of Venture Brothers.  I don't know the name of the psychological disorder, but it's there. 


38
Grant, it sounds like your main criterion is stability, and if the action increases stability over inaction then do it; the violence (i.e. attacking another country) is justified by the material gains the attack will gain, which can include security, wealth, etc. So it's not so much about atrocities, at least not the way you're making it sound. I just wanted to know. If you had said it was about the atrocities my next question was going to be why not attack China, but based on your answer your concepts don't point toward that as a necessary conclusion.

Well, the thing with China comes back to 1) can it be done? and 2) would it make things better? 

There is not a whole bunch we can do for the Uighurs or other *censored*ty stuff China does.  You would have to invade China.  Topple the government.  Occupy China.  That's impossible.  It just can't be done. 

As bad as things are there, an invasion of China would make things bad for billions of people.  Even if it were possible.  Invading China isn't like invading Iraq, Iran, or Syria.  It's CHINA.  (Or CHYNUH) as L'Orange would say. 

On the other hand, a war with China that was just about stopping Chinese ability to threaten their neighbors, a naval or air war, that could lead to more stability and is doable. 

But let's look at Syria.  Serious humanitarian problems there.  Assad is a murderer extraordinaire.  I'd love to have invaded Syria if I thought it could work out.  But we were overextended already, nobody had any faith in intervention, and there were too many useful idiots sucking up propaganda.  I would have loved if we could have just targeted the *censored* and rubbed him out.  What has happened in Syria has not been good for regional stability, but it's hard to say how any meaningful intervention would have really helped, even if it's limited to just killing Assad.  But I support it because he's an *censored* and needs to die.  It's that simple. I can't even say there is a good chance of making things better.  All I can say for certain is that when people get away with being a mass murderer, it encourages others to do the same. 

But there are plenty of people like that.  Stalin.  Mao. Amin.  Some of them you can take down one way or another.  Others you can't.  Can't really do *censored* about Stalin or Mao.  Same really with Pooter.

I'm not saying it's impossible for things to have worked out in Syria.  But given America's track record recently at occupation and nation building, and the lack of faith in the same.  It's like looking at an impressive hill and saying "hell yeah we can take that hill".  Then you turn around and everyone on your team is an asthmatic in a wheel chair.  I mean, technically you can take the hill, but maybe not with the people you have.  You look into a particularly dirty warehouse floor, and say "hell yeah we can clean this place up", and you turn around and your team are all armed with toothbrushes and water pistols instead of mops and brooms.  Technically you should be able to clean that dirty floor, but not with the tools at your disposal. 

The key here is to do what you are able to do.  The easier it is the more you should do it.  One of the main selling points for the whole Ukrainian affair, to me, is how easy it would have been to prevent it or shorten it or win it.  Just send the USAF and it's over in a week.  It's that simple.  The biggest risk you have is deciding whether to attack targets in mother Russia or not.  Maybe Pooter tac nukes Poland.  It's possible that at some point the additional deaths would be greater than the deaths prevented.  That's why it would have been best to enter the war earlier.  Every day they are running out of more Ukrainians to kill or rape.  Beyond half of America and Europe *censored*ting themselves if a tac nuke goes off, it would be the single greatest disaster in American military history since Pearl Harbor.  And to stop it we'd have to nuke a Russian airbase or supply depot.  More dead.  But Russia still loses.  Now they're a pariah nation.  They'll be more cut off than North Korea.  Even the Germans and Hungarians will abandon them if they use nuclear weapons. Third world countries will have it better than Russia.  So it's likely they will not use them at all.  But they will threaten to, which they have already and continue to do so every day in state run media. 






39
More likely to dive as a reaction to the situation. When the water is freezing and choppy a response to the situation might be the reasoned approach vice a emotional reaction.

I mean, we can create all kinds of different scenarios, but I will stand by my original claim, because morality and parenthood and love are all emotionally governed things. 

Human beings have different levels of risk assessment and risk tolerance.  Some people run from fires, some would say wisely, and some others run towards them.

40
If going to war in Ukraine is warranted, Grant, is it because of the violation of a sovereign border, or because of the human rights violation? If the Russians were doing a clean fight, protecting civilians, etc, would that change the calculus on your idea that the U.S. should get in there and help?

I think this is difficult to say.  I would like to say both or neither. 

I think I can simplify that saying that we should go to war with Russia over Ukraine because the results of Russia winning, or losing slowly, in Ukraine is detrimental to the lives, world security, and economic stability of so much of the world AND because we can win very easily and keep all these negative actions from occurring.  It comes down to death and destruction and instability.  All of that together is a bigger reason than any one single reason by itself.  I don't think Russia would be Pooter's Russia without some of the human rights violations.  It kinda goes hand in hand with why Russia is our enemy, whether you want to see it or not. 

But let's play some games.  Let's say the United Kingdom invades Assad's Syria, for human rights violations.  And the UK keeps it clean, protecting civilians etc.  In this particular case, I'm not terribly upset about the violation of sovereignty unless it's a bad habit and ends up creating worse situations.  Or let's say France invades the UK and keeps it clean, over I dunno, fishing rights.  Kinda crazy.  Even if France keeps it clean, I would suggest siding with the UK, but it's hard for me to wrap my head around this scenario.  It's out of character. 

Even if Pooter's Russia kept things clean in Ukraine, I would still see the assault on sovereignty as destabilizing.  I would see it as a threat to the world and if it succeeded I would suggest it would embolden other world powers with designs on neighbors.  I think that in itself is cause for the United States to go to war being as it is in our interests to have world stability.  I think that preventing war and ending wars is in America's interests for many reasons, because it leads to humanitarian problems.  So it always comes down to humanitarian reasons. 

I'm under no illusions that war is something clean.  But there are degrees of dirty. 

41
Maybe end of humanity is hyperbole, but I'll throw Ukraine's millions under the bus rather than commit to an order of magnitude more.

The only way to limit the killing is to surrender.  You're going to have to figure out what you will fight for.  Sounds like to me you've already figured it out, though. 

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Maybe end of humanity is hyperbole, but I'll throw Ukraine's millions under the bus rather than commit to an order of magnitude more. In this case, sure other humans will survive, but largely at pre-industrial levels. Africa won't do very well when many of the parts that they need to run will be toast.

I'm glad that we've moved on from "end of humanity" to "pre-industrial levels".  Give it some more time and I think we will continue to make progress, as soon as you understand your fears are mostly unjustified. 

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The world is in a collective spasm just from losing Russian oil, what happens when North American and North Sea production is also severely disrupted? You don't even need nukes to get to 100 million dead.

Oh, we might get there already, due to disruption of food production and export from Ukraine and Russia. 

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I'll gladly take another Vietnam and an estimated over that. In that case, China did roll in and fought US troops directly.

It's amazing.  Nobody nuked anybody. 

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And there was a lot of talk about the US using nukes, and look up Fracture Jaw for how close we came to breaking the nuclear seal.

Fracture Jaw went nowhere fast. 

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Your white hat is looking a little smudged, my self-described neocon.

It's true, I do think the United States and Americans are the good guys.  I don't deny it.  I will defend that view.  The United States has done some pretty bad stuff.  The list is pretty big.  Despite all that, we're nowhere near as bad as Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Pooter's Russia, Iran, Saddam's Iraq, Assad's Syria, the Viet Cong/Viet Minh, the Khmer Rouge, the Chicoms.  If you don't think so, try to imagine a world where any of those powers are the dominant superpower in the world. 

Pinochet was pretty bad.  But nowhere near as bad as Stalin or Hitler.  Yes, there were civilian casualties when we bombed NVA concentrations in Cambodia.  But we didn't kill nearly as many as the Khmer Rouge.  I'm not pleased with Erdogan.  I'm even less pleased with the Saudis in Yemen.  But I don't think they're anywhere near as bad as what Pooter is doing in Ukraine or what the Chinese did to Tibet. 

I'm sorry if you cannot differentiate between the magnitudes of *censored*ry.  But I'd rather wear a smudged white hat than wear none at all, and it's definitely better than a black hat. 


42
Maybe nuclear war is inevitable.

No.  It's a choice.  Psychohistory doesn't exist.  Thucydides Traps are the invention of weak minds.   

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It certainly felt that way in the 1980s.

The only thing certain I remember is that the Soviets were certain that Reagan or Bush would turn all of the Soviet Union into a glowing cinder if they used nuclear weapons, which in turn created certain deterrence and helped prevent nuclear war. 

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We got through that period because we followed certain rules under the gentleman's agreement that kept the US and the USSR from annihilating each other

What "gentleman's agreement"?  The only unspoken agreement I can fathom is the one where both sides agreed that they did not want to use nuclear weapons and only kept them to prevent the other side from using them.  Hence, a "gentleman's agreement" against first use.  This agreement did not come into play until enough scares occurred in the Soviet Union to encourage leadership that the use of nuclear weapons was suicide and keeping nuclear weapons only increased risk. 

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even while carrying out despicable acts in the name of defeating the other - acts far worse cumulatively than what we're seeing in Ukraine, as appalling as it is.

It's true.  What the Soviets, Chicoms, Khmer Rouge, NVA, and Viet Cong did were indeed despicable and appalling. 

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We didn't shoot Russian helicopters out of the sky in Afghanistan, and they were committing the same atrocities there.

Same atrocities maybe, but not the same geopolitical strategic situation. 

In 1980, what forces were Carter, or Reagan in 1981, supposed to commit to fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan?  Was there a friendly government there fighting for it's life?  A government that we had ties to?  That we had an established supply route with? 

Let's look at this realistically.  In 1981, before the DoD expansion under Reagan, the main enemy was the Soviet Union.  That was the enemy center of gravity and the plan was to concentrate in West Germany.  Any movement of forces away from this center of gravity would have drawn forces away from the built up OpPlan.  Why do that?  Why fight the Soviets in Afghanistan?  To set up what?  With what allies?  Pakistan? 

The situation in 2022 is much different.  Here Russia is attacking straight onto NATO's front porch.  This is in fact the fight that the Army, Navy, and Air Force of the 1980s was built to fight, which was then unleashed on a hapless Iraq in 1991.  This is it.  The ghost of Norman Schwarzkopf has an erection.  This is why former SACEURs like Joulwan and Clarke are some of the only voices saying "let's go".  The Cold War didn't end.  It was just paused and then Western Europe didn't want to play anymore.  All the *censored* that the Soviet Union caused for 80 years and all the *censored* that Russia has been causing over the last 14 and all the *censored* that it would like to cause over the next 100 years comes down to 2022.  Russia can be defeated now, and never be the seed for further problems in the world again. 

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But never ever having an American hand on the button that launched them, at least not provably.

I'm going to repeat that there is nothing magical about an American soldier killing a Russian soldier that automatically leads to nuclear war.  The war plans developed by the Warsaw Pact only began to include the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the 1960s because the NATO forces were so weak it was stated and assumed that NATO would use tac nukes first.  Key in on that.  The Warsaw Pact only planned to use tac nukes if NATO used them first.  They didn't need tac nukes to win.  And despite the plans to use tactical nukes against the Warsaw Pact, the idea that nuclear war was unwinnable war pretty strong in the US during the 60s and 70s.  The "Seven Days to the Rhine" scenario was centered around NATO first use of nuclear weapons. 

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Russian was contained by Nato in Europe.

NATO containment depends on the concept that American soldiers, airmen, and sailors would fight Russians and kill Russians despite their having nuclear weapons.  The "inevitability" of the current situation is that Russia is losing and will continue to lose in the long run, even if they do manage to take the Donbas, which is exactly what would happen if the United States enters the war today.  The decision point isn't "an American has killed a Russian, nuke them", it's "we are losing and there is no other way to stop losing than using a tactical nuclear weapon to force negotiations".  That is the only way that Russia can use nuclear weapons and not lose worse than they already will. 

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Then we retaliate with strikes on non-capital Russian cities. Pressure builds. Maybe Putin says its time for a nuke, or maybe the command and control isn't airtight and a Russian general decides its time. That can't go unanswered, so St. Petersburg gets melted. Somebody realizes the trajectory of this escalation, and goes for the full strike before the other guy can do it.

This is word salad that makes no strategic sense.  Why would NATO retaliate on Russian cities in response to conventional cruise missile attacks?  It makes better sense to retaliate against the missile launchers and missile depots.  If Pooter decides to pull the trigger with a tactical nuclear weapon, why would NATO respond against a strategic target like St. Petersburg?  It makes better sense to hit another tactical target like an airfield or supply depot or troop concentration.  This is just fear.  This is "don't poke the bear in the cage, because then the bear is going to pick the lock and then go to the pawn shop and buy a 12 gauge shotgun and hotwire a Mazda Miata and come to your house and shoot you in the middle of the night after climbing down your chimney".  It's unrealistic.   

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It's a horrible choice. If one of your children falls out of a lifeboat, do you dive in to try to save them or do you stay and protect the other kids that are still in the boat?

Most parents dive in, depending on their ability to swim. 

43

We'd probably want some sort of U.N. approval if that's possible first though. After all, it is the life of every person in every country at stake. At a minimum, for crimes already committed, it seems like Russia should be kicked out of its permanent Security Council seat. I don't know if there is a way to do it. It is called a permanent seat after all. But it should be done anyway.

I don't think it's possible.  But I don't really know.  I'm not sure whose permission we really need anyways.  Whose approval is critical so that the "narrative" isn't that the United States is imperialist and Grandpa President is a unilateralist?  Germany's?  I don't think so.  A majority?  I think that's doable.  A majority by population?  Not so long as India seems to be betting on Russia. 

I honestly don't think that "the end of humanity" is in the cards here, and I don't know why people are seriously entertaining the threat. I mean, if you really want to prevent the end of civilization, you can just refuse to respond to a overwhelming strategic nuclear attack on the US and NATO.  We'll all be radioactive dust but Russia, China, India, SE Asia, the ME, Africa, South America, and Australia will be around to pick up the pieces.  See?  End of civilization averted.  But I don't think that's really what people cared about anyways. 

Yes, the refusal to engage Russia head on could in fact encourage countries like China and North Korea to believe that the United States would never engaged them directly due to fear of nuclear attack.  It pretty much completely negates the fact that we have our own nuclear arsenal to deter any nuclear attack on ourselves or our allies.  But that's apparently where we are now. 

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Would you be the one to push the button, right now?

I kinda feel Kennedy already pushed the button in 1962 and Mattis just about did it again in 2018.  So yeah, I’d push the button. But I’m the last neocon superhawk. I’m one step under Curtis LeMay (recognize real crazy).  I honestly don’t see another viable option except surrender.  I know some people think there is some kind of third way that we’re doing now, but as I’ve shown, we’re eventually going to reach the very same decision point with the third way.  It’s just going to take longer and cost more Ukrainian lives, more rapes, more executions, more dead children. 

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If we’re going to send Americans to Kyiv, my vote is for an airborne brigade. And lots of drones. And the air force.

I feel a BDE from the 82nd would have been the right answer in the first month, when the fighting was mostly defensive in nature. This could have freed up Ukrainian mechanized units for counterattacks elsewhere. 

Now, with the nature of the war switching to attrition rather than blunting an attack, what is needed is a hammer, not a snake pit. I would suggest sending an Armored Cavalry Regiment, or even better a heavy division. 

But as suggested, the even simpler solution is simply unleash the USAF and let them win the war in 2-4 days. I mean, I suppose the Russians could hold out and let themselves be slowly annihilated like the Iraqis during the opening of Desert Storm for 2-4 weeks. But the end would be unavoidable.  It would also make air bases in Poland, Germany, and Romania the new prime targets for tac nuke attack. If Pooter uses a tac nuke so many people in the US and Europe will void their bowels simultaneously that there probably isn’t enough Charmin to handle it.

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Germany refuses to turn its deactivated nuclear power plants back on to reduce dependence on Russian gas, saying that nuclear energy would not actually reduce foreign dependence on energy, Germany would then being reliant on sales of uranium from…Canada.

47
No new evidence on chemical attack in Mariupol. Either it was something simple like CS or more likely something like something burning like plastic in a city being bombarded.

Russian Slava class CG Moskva , flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was reportedly hit by two Neptune anti-ship missiles. Russian state media has confirmed the ship was on fire, the ammunition ignited, and the crew was evacuated.  No word on a missile strike. The Rooskies can now choose between saying they were so incompetent that a country without a navy sank their flagship, or that they were so incompetent that fire protection and poor maintenance led to the loss of their flagship.

Finland and Sweden making noise again about joining NATO. Pooter warns would have dire consequences.  Somebody needs to tell Sweden and Finland that joining NATO won’t help them. If the Russians invade the United States would not dare actually killing a single Russian soldier in direct combat, because it would lead to the end of civilization.  Sanctions and weapons sales are the best we can do. But only certain weapons. Not these other weapons. And Germany will still buy Russian gas and finance them killing you.

Boris Johnston made it to Kyiv. No word when the DNC will be capable of letting Grandpa President go without causing 50% of all registered Democrats to “have a cow, man”. 

48
Unconfirmed reports of Russian chemical weapons use in Mariupol. Claims of difficulty breathing.  No photos. No video. No medical reports. Only detail is it was supposedly distributed by a drone. Reported by Azov BN suposedly.

No details. Vapor, gas, liquid?  No details on odor. No details on onset or other symptoms. 

Still early, but nowhere near the amount of data and evidence from the major chemical strikes in Syria by the Assad regime and later denied by the Kremlin’s useful idiots on the interwebs.

49
Destroyed Russian BMP-2 spotted and photographed, northwest of Kiev I think, with “Wolverines” spay painted on it.

50
Now we get to contemplate the moral calculations of "What if a nuclear power is committing genocide?".

Well, nothing of course.  Fighting Russia would mean "World War Three".  That would mean "the end of human civilization".  Can't have that. 

Our nuclear weapons are only good for deterring Russian nuclear attacks on ourselves, and the people we draw inside this little circle in pencil on a map.  The people outside the circle are just, well, screwed.  Can't help them.  But we can destroy their economy to the best of our ability and send certain types of weapons to help kill Russians, because that is within the rules that we think the Russians are playing by. 

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do we just go all-in and hope that Putin won't obliterate the world to avoid facing the shame of utter defeat?

It's funny, because we seem to be in a race over who can bear the most shame or dishonor.  Putin or the entire west.  I'm going to bet on the entire west being able to shoulder more shame, because they can spread it out and blame other people instead of actually doing anything.  Poland can blame Germany and Germany can blame the US and the US can blame Biden and Biden can blame Poland.  So in the meantime, as someone once said, "F Ukraine, it's lousy they are being massacred, but it's lousy what the United States did to Afghanistan.  Can't do anything without the UN."

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