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Messages - DonaldD

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Somebody, please, call this man a whaaaaambulance:

Excuse me, no, no, your first statement to me “this is going to be tough questions”.  Well, I don’t mind that. When you set up the interview you didn’t say that. You said “let’s have a lovely interview.”  And here’s what I do say: you don’t ask Joe Biden - I saw your interview with Joe - the interview with Joe Biden - it was a joke. The interview with 60 minutes.  I see Joe Biden getting softball after softball...

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 22, 2020, 04:38:32 PM »
Oh, you mean the Emperor's New Polls, set up by his sycophants to feed his ego?

Or are these "real polls" published along with their methodology?

You would think... except, this: What Republican internal polling can actually tell us:

I looked at more than a dozen of these partisan polls released to the public from House and Senate races since the major party conventions in August. These partisan polls are notoriously unreliable, and none of them meet CNN standards for reporting.

The reason is simple: Partisans don’t want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll.

That’s why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls.

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 22, 2020, 12:19:46 PM »
Also "proved", "accurate", and "real"

General Comments / Re: Voting mechanisms
« on: October 22, 2020, 11:28:48 AM »
Trump's Army has kicked off their voter intimidation program:

The Sheriff [Bob Gualtieri] told me the persons that were dressed in these security uniforms had indicated to sheriff’s deputies that they belonged to a licensed security company and they indicated—and this has not been confirmed yet—that they were hired by the Trump campaign,” said Marcus in a video interview with 8 On Your Side’s Chip Osowski Wednesday night.

There is almost no chance that these men were actually hired by the Trump campaign, and the Trump campaign has denied they were involved. Of course, this was completely expected to happen, and people warned about it happening, after Trump encouraged people to do just this on numerous occasions.

"proven facts" - you seem to be suggesting that significant numbers of non-Murdoch rags are running with the story.

I don't think they are, but please, point out which media entities are running with the 'story'.  Which media actually have access to the laptop in question?   And of those that do not have access to the laptop, which of them are reporting blindly on the contents thereof?

Or was that whole post a non-sequitur, and had nothing to do with my pointing out that most media are ignoring the click bait?

Time will tell, but for now, with a few notable exceptions of Murdoch rags, the media is notably not biting because the evidence that they all have is limited to what Giuliani has said and what the NY Post has reported.

Basically, they can safely report on the existence of the Giuliani claims, and on the existence of the NY Post story, but not actually about the 'substance' of those claims.  They can also report on the FBI's "no comment"...

It seems like somebody is using the words "real", "confirmed", "all" "charged" and "crime" to mean something different from what normal people do when they use those words.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 21, 2020, 05:26:02 PM »
Is this just how 2020 works, now?  Why are (relatively) famous US men getting caught on video playing with themselves?

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 21, 2020, 03:02:43 PM »
US 7-day average new cases per day - this does not bode well:

2020-10-20   60,915
2020-10-18   57,674
2020-10-16   55,948
2020-10-14   53,156
2020-10-12   50,695
2020-10-10   48,885
2020-10-08   47,064
2020-10-06   44,477
2020-10-04   43,853
2020-10-02   42,788
2020-09-30   42,730
2020-09-28   41,656
2020-09-26   41,523
2020-09-24   41,315
2020-09-22   41,274
2020-09-20   41,624
2020-09-18   40,981
2020-09-16   39,363
2020-09-14   37,472
2020-09-12   35,578

Since when are refugees and immigrants considered to be not "free Persons" (i.e., slaves?)

We've gotta get the attorney general to act. He's gotta act. And he's gotta act fast.

This is major corruption and this has to be known about before the election.

He's openly calling for the Attorney General to use his office to interfere in the election.

I am pleased to inform you that, for the sake of accuracy in reporting, I am considering posting my interview with Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes, PRIOR TO AIRTIME! This will be done so that everybody can get a glimpse of what a FAKE and BIASED interview is all about...

<munches popcorn>

I guess you didn't notice the "/Sarc" tag.

As an aside, you don't think that anything written here has any effect in the real world, do you?

Speaking of the cookie jar, I wonder whether the NY Post will run with this one:

In 2017 Trump Int'l Hotels Management — the company with a Chinese bank account — reported an unusual $17m revenue spike, more than the previous 5 years combined. It was accompanied by a $15m withdrawal by Trump from the company’s capital account.

OMG - Trump is a proven criminal!  What with all the Republican candidates already scurrying from the ship, I wonder if they have time to replace him on the ticket?? /Sarc

So. About California and a few other Democratic strongholds with large populations of illegal immigrants that they want to have counted towards their population for the purpose of allocating seats in the House of Representatives even though those persons are unable to vote?
What does the number of "illegal immigrants" have to do with anything as concerns the census? 

"counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed.”

I guess you are not an originalist...

Oh William, you are adorable!

<snerk> the only people who are buying into the recent Giuliani/Russia dump are those who also still have hopes that pizzagate is going to bear fruit, and think that Trump will save the world from pedophiles.

General Comments / Re: Who will be next to speak out about Trump?
« on: October 20, 2020, 08:21:38 PM »
Internationally... we'll just have to agree to disagree, unless the goal is to blow up international treaties with allies, reduce the country's stature, facilitate, even encourage, Iran's nuclear ambitions not to mention that complete mess he made with China and North Korea.  Let's not even start on Russia.

His only bright spot were the two recent Israel/Arab peace deals.

They don't want votes counted days before polls close ...
They weren't to be counted - they were going to be sorted.  Of course there is literally no evidence that the numbers would have been leaked anyway, so even that's a bit of a red herring.
Wolf this summer asked for counties to be allowed to start sorting mail-in ballots 15 days before Nov. 3

As for Maryland... I expect you don't have children, TheDaemon, or did you teach them that "two wrongs make a right", too? If there was significant gerrymandering in Maryland, that would also be a problem. But what does the Maryland house of delegates look like?  Well, Democrats garnered 65.5% of the vote, as compared to 32.6% for the Republicans.  And the seat counts?  Dems got 99 to the Repubs 42, or 70% for Dems and 30% for Repubs.  It would be hard for those numbers to be much more representative.

What about the House elections?  Sure, there were 7 Dems to 1 Republican, but what was the spread?  The one Republican seat won actually had a lower margin of victory than all but one of the Democratic seats won - meaning more Democratic votes were 'wasted' winning those 6 seats than were wasted winning the Republican seat.  Sure, there was gerrymandering that gives rise to a more frequent 7th seat for Democrats - and that is a bad thing.  I am all for using an objective set of metrics to control demonstrably partisan-driven districts. But let's not pretend Maryland is on the same scale as Pennsylvania, where the congressional map was so skewed that the supreme court had to step in.  Now, even though the Dems got 55% of the vote, at least they don't have fewer seats than the Republicans do (each have 9).

However, there are exactly 10 states (20% of all states) where both the upper and lower state houses are held by the party that got fewer votes than did the opposition party.

In all 10 cases, those legislatures are held by Republicans.  You can "what about" all day long, but it doesn't change the fact that Republicans are currently the party of disenfranchising voters for the purposes of getting themselves elected.

General Comments / Re: Who will be next to speak out about Trump?
« on: October 20, 2020, 07:20:00 PM »
Retired Navy Adm. William McRaven, the former head of US Special Operations Command who oversaw both the successful raid that killed Osama bin Laden and the capture of Saddam Hussein:

Obviously, you know, as a senior retired military officer, these are challenging times, and there’s a little bit of an unwritten rule that senior officers don’t come out and endorse a candidate.  However, I felt that the direction of the country was heading in such a bad direction that we needed new leadership and that Joe Biden will be a much, much better leader than Donald Trump.

The one thing I know about leadership, Jake, is that if you are going to lead in challenging times, you have to build alliances; you have to build coalitions; you have to have friends and allies. And we’ve got a lot of challenges ahead of us: we’ve got a rising China; we’ve got an aggressive Russia; we’ve got North Korea with ICBMs that may be nuclear-tipped soon. And of course we’ve got the second wave of the pandemic.

You cannot confront those challenges unless you have alliances.  And this president has proven that he doesn’t want alliances domestically, and he doesn’t want alliances internationally.

Maybe the most compelling argument in favor of it all being true is the sheer ineptitude it would take to not frame him better.

Ironically, it is the only part of all this that gave me any pause whatsoever.  The story is so unbelievable it could not have been planned.

Also - who outside of a small IT department has 3 laptops that need to be serviced at the same time?  And anybody owning a MacBook (never mind 3 of them) is not dropping dropping it off with a blind repairman, instead of an Apple Store.

And for a little more context: the Democratic governor proposed allowing early votes to be sorted starting 2 weeks in advance of election day - but the Republican held legislature responded by agreeing to a 3 day period, but in 'return' demanded that drop boxes be banned.  Why would they think that improving the speed of processing of votes would need to be countered by making it more difficult for people to vote altogether?  I think we all know why, even if some of us cannot admit to the reason.

Despite spending $1 million on new equipment to open envelopes and count mail-in ballots quicker, Lawrence Jr. said it'll still take days to count a quarter million ballots without action by lawmakers and Gov. Tom Wolf to allow for sorting before Nov. 3.

"People have to know we will not have results on election night if we can’t pre-canvass," Lawrence Jr. said, using the term for early counting. "Even with the equipment we have, it’s still a labor intensive process. It took us 17 days in the primary to count (105,000) mail-in ballots. We’ll have a better process in place, but we'll have many more ballots."

Wolf, a Democrat, and the Republican-controlled Legislature are stuck in a logjam over the issue. Wolf this summer asked for counties to be allowed to start sorting mail-in ballots 15 days before Nov. 3. Republicans in the General Assembly have countered three days, but included that offer in a bill that would ban drop boxes throughout the state.

Yes, laws put in place by - wait for it - Republicans.

Oh, and for a little context: During the 2018 Pennsylvania House of Representatives election, the Democrats won 55% of the vote, to the Republicans 44%.  So you would think that it must be the Dems' fault, right?  Except that garnering 55% of the votes was only enough to win 46% of the seats - whereas the Republicans 44% of the vote translated into 54% of the seats.

And the Republicans are using those state seats to disenfranchise voters.  Of course it's harder to do when you are that far in the minority, but they are giving it the old college try.

... or a likely explosion in the number of COVID-19 cases...

Trump apparently shocked - shocked I say - that Pennsylvania will count actual votes:

We got a ruling yesterday where they can count ballots after the election's over, what kind of a thing— so what does that mean, we're going to wait until after Nov. 3 and start announcing states?

In a state where Republicans blocked votes from being processed before election day, then tried to block votes from being counted after election day, you have to wonder... why? Why do they not want votes counted?

Well, he actually admitted that some of his actions were motivated by how unfairly the president was being treated: "MacIsaac, the owner, said several times how he felt Mr. Trump was treated unfairly during his impeachment trial and suggested if the alleged documents are true, the "sham" impeachment was reason to release them."  So yeah, that is somewhat relevant.

Especially when you consider the damning email, an email about having a coffee, was a 4-year old email, that was accidentally viewed and just so happened to have been identified as "significant" ("oh my goodness - this 4 year old email, that just happened to open accidentally on my screen, shows this guy asking about meeting again, and thanking him for the previous meeting! This requires immediate analysis!") 

Is it possible?  Maybe.  Is it likely?  Are there other explanations that fit the facts?  Hmmm...

And I have no idea why one would focus on him not being as blind as he said he is.  He admitted to not being able to identify "Biden" visually; he only knew who he claimed to have been dealing with when "Biden" gave his name.

Personally, I would be really, really, leery about hanging my hat on any of this, because it is so questionable for so many reasons.  It makes me wonder why people are so keen on accepting it as unvarnished truth.

"COVID mask concealment"... you seem to be contending that Biden was wearing masks back in mid 2019.  Now that would have not only been an abundance of caution, but also impressive prescience.

CBS news interviewed Mr MacIsaac and yes, he does characterize himself as "legally blind".

MacIsaac, the owner, said several times how he felt Mr. Trump was treated unfairly during his impeachment trial and suggested if the alleged documents are true, the "sham" impeachment was reason to release them. He also repeatedly mentioned his girlfriend left him after he voted for Trump in 2016.

Yeah, yeah - fake news, blah, blah, blah.

Is it your contention that polling companies are unaware of voter affiliation, or that they are unaware of how voter affiliation has changed and do not take voter affiliation into consideration?  Because ascertaining voter affiliation is a part of almost every single poll.

If you vote Biden... he'll listen to the scientists.

I really don't think he understands why this won't play well to other 66% of the population.

Here is an interesting contrast: in 2016, the FBI had an open investigation into Russian interference in the election, with specific sub-inquiries into a number of people in the Trump campaign, sub-inquiries that began as early as July 2016.  This investigation of Russian interference was made public, but the possible involvement of Trump campaign members was kept under wraps until after the election, and none of those people were named at the time.

Today, we have the Director of National Intelligence talking to Fox News, making political statements about an ongoing investigation into Hunter Biden, two weeks before the election and attempting to link something to his father, the presidential candidate.

There's no point in debating the veracity of any of the actions investigated, but there is no question that the investigations existed, nor the timing of them being made public.  It's obvious, though, that this is another example of Trump cronies abusing their power and position for political gain in ways not done previously.

Because it's fun to play with the way back machine, here is some more context from 2016: according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, on the Monday, 2 weeks before election day in 2016 (October 24) Clinton's lead in the popular vote was 6.3%.  Today, Monday October 19, 2020, also 2 weeks before election day, again according to the 538 average, Biden's lead is 10.7% nationally.

In 2016, the Comey letter was about to drop (October 28 in 2016, the equivalent of 4 days from now) and Clinton's lead was about to crater.  It will be interesting to see if there is any significant movement in the polls over the next week.

People are tired of Covid. I have these huge rallies. People are saying "whatever - just leave us alone." They're tired of it. People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots.


Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we'd have 500,000 deaths.

Only the Murdoch properties are paying any attention to the Giuliani/Russian smear attempts at this point, and the true believers don't need any more convincing.  Fool me once...  If you need any evidence, it's been several days since the 'scandal' broke, and Biden's support has only gained a percentage point - the lead now sits at 10.7%

What will destroy the Democrat Party is their unbridled support for Biden - no matter what.
What are you smoking?

General Comments / Re: Who will be next to speak out about Trump?
« on: October 19, 2020, 09:01:32 AM »
Speaking of Whitmer...

You know, it's incredibly disturbing that the President of the United States, 10 days after a plot to kidnap, put me on trial and execute me, 10 days after that was uncovered, the President is at it again and inspiring and incentivizing and inciting this kind of domestic terrorism.

Huh? How's that math work? 52.4 - 49.7 =2.7
By margin, it is 10.5 - 7 = 3.5
The Biden/Trump differential is currently 10.6% on 538 - I expect the numbers  above (52.4 and 41.9) were rounded.

According to FiveThirtyEight's polling average, as of October 17, 2016, Clinton was up 49.7% to 42.7% in the popular vote - as compared to Biden's current lead of 52.4% to 41.9%.  Biden's lead is still 3.6% ahead of Clinton's at the same time 4 years ago.  Plus, there is little chance that Comey will send a letter to Congress the week before the election this year... not to mention that there simply are far fewer available or undecided votes to be had (especially with all the advance polling).

As for Trump's enthusiasm deficit - it's not so strange.  4 years ago, he was an unknown, and it was easier to project people's hopes onto that blank canvas.  Today, Trump has to deal with his record.  Even the most partisan have to see that many people, mistaken though they might be, don't like his record.

Trump, via Bannon, holds the country for ransom: "Either elect me now, or I will run again in 2024!" /sarc

Donald Trump Will Run Again in 2024 if He Loses to Joe Biden, Says Steve Bannon

"I'll make this prediction right now: If for any reason the election is stolen from, or in some sort of way Joe Biden is declared the winner, Trump will announce he's going to run for re-election in 2024," he told the newspaper. "You're not going to see the end of Donald Trump."

Of course, he will need to be sure to pay all his court fees before he votes in Florida, that is if he gets released in time.

General Comments / Re: Voting mechanisms
« on: October 18, 2020, 04:49:41 PM »
Here's an article, interesting not in that it says much that is new, but rather that it goes through the recent history of the Republican party so systematically in the ways that the party has moved away from striving for popular support based on steadfast ideals, and instead became a party depending on voter suppression and gerrymandering in order to maintain its own semi-permanent rule despite only minority support.  In so doing, I think we'll see how the party has painted itself into a corner where, once the voter suppression fails, the house of cards will collapse leaving the party without either the gamed system nor any significant natural base on which to rebuild.

Of course, this may or may not happen soon - and if sooner, will depend on SCOTUS not defanging a new Voting Rights Act...

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 18, 2020, 08:42:43 AM »
Taiwan shows what can happen with government leadership, cooperation, open data and crowd-sourcing solutions.  Of course, Taiwan is, socially and politically, a very different place.  As well, Taiwan took the virus seriously even before they had recorded their first case.

In the end, with very limited lockdown intrusions into daily life, Taiwan used masks and proper hygiene methods almost exclusively to crush viral spread.

Total deaths: 7
Cases per million population: 22

Compare that to Canada, with roughly the same sized population (well, about 50% larger population)
Total deaths: 9,746
Cases per million population: 5,188

FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by 8 in Michigan.  I think that's been pretty static for a while, but there hasn't been a lot of quality state level polls yet.

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 17, 2020, 05:23:05 PM »
You've been told before that the boogaloo boys span both sides of the spectrum.
The Boogaloo movement is primarily far right, with roots in white supremacy, and is loosely organized, as you've been told before :)

Sure, there have been some groups claiming to be both Boogaloo and who decry racism, but those are simply atypical offshoots.  But yes, there are definitely different flavours of Boogaloo.

I note you didn't address how that Confederate flag in Michigan could be considered in any way BLM-supportive, though - that particular piece of evidence strongly suggests these particular Boogaloo tools do hold an anti-BLM position, but maybe you disagree that flying a confederate flag in Michigan suggests anti-black tendencies.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 17, 2020, 01:05:48 PM »
Will there be a Thanksgiving this year, in the modern sense?  I can't imagine tens of millions of people travelling cross country twice in a week in this environment. 

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 17, 2020, 01:04:00 PM »
BLM supporters and anarchists among a few other things.
Do BLM supporters (especially in Michigan) normally fly confederate flags?  Really?  That seems like  stretch.  Also, taking on the moniker "Boogaloo Bunyan" really argues against them supporting BLM.

Noel, feel free to do your own homework.

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 17, 2020, 11:24:53 AM »
Feel free to use Google and search for articles, reviews and opinions that you disagree with.  Then read them with the assumption (and this is the hard part) that your previous understanding was incorrect.

You don't need to actually change your mind, but you do need to park your previous assumptions at the door while trying to understand a foreign point of view.  There are many observations of where Scalia's ruling are inconsistent with his philosophy - whether that's a good or bad thing is irrelevant, whether they can be excused or rationalized away is another topic, but the observations of his inconsistencies are well documented.

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 17, 2020, 10:52:16 AM »
Scalia's greatest success was in convincing conservatives - and maybe even himself - that he was consistent in his commitment to originalism and textualism, whereas he was simply not immune to ignoring his own philosophy when it was convenient to justify conservative results.  I doubt Barrett will be either.  She is also human, after all.

General Comments / Re: How to save the country
« on: October 17, 2020, 09:32:42 AM »
Live with it. Use it for fundraising and to gain control of House, Senate, and the WH. Then do the same thing right back. That's the solution, not upending institutions or trying to make deals with untrustworthy people.
Unfortunately "doing the same thing right back" just feeds into the disfunction.

Packing the courts with 'progressive' judges by ignoring a president's nominations for 2 years would be just as bad as what the Federalist society has done to the Republican party.

Of course, if the Democrats find themselves with control of the legislative and executive levers of government come January 20, they could choose the high road and simply accept the Republicans having stacked the courts; and it is possible that those courts will not overturn precedent in privacy rights, the ACA, and wouldn't override a new voting rights act among other things.  But if the courts do legislate from the bench as is feared, that would have direct and significant effects on real people's health and lives - and there should be a responsibility on the part of those governing to protect the rights, lives and freedoms of those governed.  It will be very difficult not to proactively protect those people in the short term, if for no other reason than not protecting them will mean an almost immediate backlash and loss of support from the people who will consider themselves as having been betrayed.

Doing nothing also has consequences.

General Comments / Re: Town halls and debates 2020
« on: October 17, 2020, 09:15:34 AM »
It's been a full week now since there has been significant change in the popular vote differential - Biden's lead over Trump has been floating around 10 1/2 percentage points during that time (currently it sits at 10.6%) and with polling from post-town hall night starting to trickle in, there doesn't seem to be any significant movement.

So Biden's support seems to have plateaued, and Trump seems incapable of chipping away at his lead.

With just over two weeks until election day, with the Giuliani/Russia/NY Post attempt at manufacturing another email conspiracy falling flat (except in the already committed, of course) and with only a single debate left (a debate which will come far too late to affect voter preferences, though maybe it might affect turnout on election day) Trump is running out of runway.

General Comments / Re: coronavirus
« on: October 17, 2020, 08:38:50 AM »
Daily numbers continue to increase across the US... Friday showed the highest number of new daily cases since the peak centred in late July, and the trend line has been very consistently upwards over the past 5-6 weeks, with a possible acceleration over the past week or two.  Unless there have been significant changes in behaviour over the past 2 weeks, there is likely already a large number of yet-to-be-reported infections baked into the population, so you'll probably see new record numbers of infections over the next 10 days.

I am not aware of strong efforts to reduce people's movements or extra pushes to respect hygiene measures, but maybe those would be more evident locally in jurisdictions getting hit the hardest. Is anybody seeing upticks in local warnings/mandates/directives/whatever?  Clearly, without changes in behaviour, the numbers will continue to increase.

Where I live, we've seen increased levels of measures being rolled out by region as numbers increased over September, and the numbers have plateaued and are maybe dropping again... but that could turn around quickly.

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