What that analysis ignores is that the medium and long term effects of Covid-19 infections are also unknown - and there is no evidence that those long term effects for the afflicted will be less damaging then the also unknown negative effects of the vaccines to those so-afflicted.
But what we do know is that the negative effects of infection are far worse in the immediate and short term than those of the vaccines in production. And we also know the risks involved in reducing levels of herd immunity inherent in large portions of the population being vaccine-hesitant.
To make an honest comparison, you would need to analyze:
- A. The short term effects of COVID-19 infections
- B. Medium term COVID effects
- C. Long term COVID effects
and contrast those to:
- 1. The short term effects of taking one of the vaccines
- 2. Medium term vaccine effects
- 3. Long term vaccine effects
We really only have a good grasp on A and 1, and A would seem to be
far worse for all segments of the population than 1 (yes, even for young, healthy people).
For B, there is growing evidence, and that evidence suggests there are pretty frequent, and serious, chronic effects of infection for all segments of the population. The vaccines would need to have some pretty spectacularly bad side effects, and would need to be experienced by a significant proportion of the people taking the vaccines, for the vaccines to cause damage in even the same order of magnitude as the virus.
For C, and for 3, there is simply no data. But worrying that 3 is worse than C is just not supported by any logical reasoning.