Author Topic: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка  (Read 52898 times)

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #550 on: May 19, 2022, 11:29:10 AM »
I don't consider Putin to be a reckless but I can't figure out what he was thinking he would gain.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #551 on: May 19, 2022, 12:06:28 PM »
I don't consider Putin to be a reckless but I can't figure out what he was thinking he would gain.

I assume he figured it would go like Crimea. That the West would make some token protests, Ukraine would quickly capitulate, and then.... I don't know what it gains. Restoration of the Empire? Having a strategic location to threaten Europe?

jc44

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #552 on: May 19, 2022, 12:20:53 PM »
I don't consider Putin to be a reckless but I can't figure out what he was thinking he would gain.

I assume he figured it would go like Crimea. That the West would make some token protests, Ukraine would quickly capitulate, and then.... I don't know what it gains. Restoration of the Empire? Having a strategic location to threaten Europe?
I think restoration of empire.  There seems to be a feeling (maybe not utterly unwarranted) that things were better in the USSR and they want it back. I'm pretty sure that Putin thought that Ukraine would fall as easily (and mostly bloodlessly) as Crimea.

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #553 on: May 19, 2022, 01:46:56 PM »
Based on what a read there is a large segment of the population that longs for the 'good old days' under Stalin.
The transition from the time when the state was taking care of everything even if the people didn't have  didn't go well. It changed overnight and left allot of people behind. So I kind of get it.
Apparently people memories our short (as seen in the Philippines)

Anyway the idea of Empire in age of technology is Absurd and only a fool wouldn't understand that. There is no going back. At least not without a lot of bloodshed and undoing of the current finatial systems. Empire isn't about boots on the ground anymore its all informational and economic.

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #554 on: May 21, 2022, 09:11:57 PM »
Based on what a read there is a large segment of the population that longs for the 'good old days' under Stalin.
The transition from the time when the state was taking care of everything even if the people didn't have  didn't go well. It changed overnight and left allot of people behind. So I kind of get it.


The ironic thing is that most of his support is coming from their version of the Baby Boomers. And there is an important thing to remember about Russia's production capabilities coming out of WW2.

You might have heard of this program the Americans started in March of 1941 and ran until the conclusion of WW2. It was called Lend-Lease. In addition to all of the production and material support we provided to the Russians, the Americans did one other thing in order to better optimize the kinds of support the Russians would need.

They sent production engineers into Russia to help them streamline and improve their domestic production capabilities. Because the more material they could produce domestically meant that other material support options opened up where Lend-Lease was concerned. In some respects, there are present day parallels that could be drawn with present day China, just over a much longer time scale in China's case.

Leap-frogging off of that Allied support from the 1940's (mostly just doing the equivalent of copy/past all over the Soviet Union) it gave the Soviets several decades of rapid industrialization and improvement in living conditions(which their baby boomers remember all too well), even if it didn't keep pace with "the west." With them even putting their own spin on things on sometimes iterating into some improved variants of their own... But eventually "state of the art 1940's" processes weren't sufficient for the Soviet Union to continue to dominate by the 1980's, although they were still plenty scary in the 1960's, 70's, and 80's. In hindsight, we know they pretty much peaked in the early 80's, arguably the 1970's all considered.

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Apparently people memories our short (as seen in the Philippines)

Not sure what you mean about the Philippines? I've been ignoring the news though, so I guess it must be something recent.

Ouija Nightmare

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #555 on: May 22, 2022, 04:25:24 PM »

Not sure what you mean about the Philippines? I've been ignoring the news though, so I guess it must be something recent.

The Chinese are ascendant in the Pacific and have scored in placing the progeny of the old dictator back into power by manipulating social media there so he won the election.

While idiots fight to impose their religion on others here in America we lose the world.

Keep treating the “libtards” like they’re your enemy and you’ll meet the real ones soon enough.


rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #556 on: July 04, 2022, 10:13:49 AM »
Not looking good for Ukraine.

Putin is going to gas light the win and nothing the west can/will do about it.

Jokes on him. Putin thinks NATO is the danger, just a matter of time that Russia becomes a puppet of China.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #557 on: September 10, 2022, 12:03:58 PM »
If the big push is happening, this would now be the time for the Ukrainians to hit hard south of Kharkiv again.

Better late then never.


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Welcome back to 10 Dimensional Chess, with Master Vladimir Pooter.  After advancing against Black Jezis (not Michael Jordan) and Orange Jeezus, Master Pooter is having a tough time against surprise challenger, former comedian and actor Volodymr Zelenskyy.  Stay tuned as we interview Master Pooter's staunchest supporters, Rand Paul and Tucker Carlson, to get their takes and how Master Pooter will soon achieve victory using 10 Dimensional Chess. 


It's been awhile.  Sorry I missed Roemegeddon, Classificationmegeddon, Semi-facismmegeddon, Queenmeggedon, Gunmegeddon, SLSmegeddon, and IceAgeMegeddon.  Sorry, not sorry. 

For the last few days the Ukrainians have been making the counter-attacks suggested back in April.  Cutting off the Russians in Izium by attacking southeast from Kharkiv and then rolling up the Russians right flank.  Looks like it might be working.  Sounds like the Russians ran out of Izium before they could be surrounded and the Ukrainians are in a real maneuver warfare environment now, chasing the Russians for as long as their fuel and ammo lasts.  It's possible this is the greatest maneuver breakout since Operation Cobra and the Falaise Pocket in August 1944.  Still too early to tell, but it looks good for Ukraine. 

If this is true, and the Russian right flank collapses and the Ukrainians are able to maintain momentum long enough to roll up the Russians, attacking through Kupiansk, Svatove, Starobisk, Novaidar, it could be the beginning of the end.  They would need to advance another 100-150 km.  But at this point the only thing holding them back would be speed and gas.  It's possible the Russians could lessen the blow by creating a new defensive line along the Krasna River, but it looks like the Russians are abandoning their equipment to get out of Izium and the Krasna is really no more than a creek at some points.  The Aidar River might be better, but that's even further back.  Any way you cut it, the Russians are about to lose a good chunk of their gains in Kharkiv Oblast.  Just how much remains to be seen. 

Is the AR disintegrating in Ukraine?  Maybe.  Too early to tell.  It's not good for the 10D Chessmaster, though.  Last time an army was on the run like this was, again, August 1944.  And the Russians are not the Wehrmacht.  I don't think they have a Rundstedt either. 

The attack was preceded by a week of bombardment and what may have been some misdirection aimed at Kherson.  The Putinverstehen are saying it was a failed counterattack but I'm not sure if it simply wasn't a ploy to move Russian reinforcements away from where the Ukrainians actually planned to counter-attack. 


So, it's possible we will soon be entering the endgame.  I don't know the odds.  Everything depends on the logistics capability of the Ukrainians and how much class III and V they built up for this advance.  Eventually the Russians will be able to redeploy and reinforce.  But if the Ukrainians move fast enough and keep hitting hard, it could be the end.  Too early for that now.  What happens in the next week or two will tell.  It's possible the entire AR in Ukraine disintegrates.  It's possible the Ukrainians run out of fuel and ammo soon and have to pause, giving the Russians time to create a new defensive line and positions. 

I've discussed before what the endgame could look like, but I won't start going over it again until it becomes clearer.  No matter what happens, this past week has been a major momentum shift towards Ukraine. 

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #558 on: September 12, 2022, 09:04:58 AM »
Oi, Grant.

I know between little and nothing about military stuff, but from what I'm hearing what was pulled off on Saturday was the best tactical manuvering since the Battle of Inchon. Would love to hear your perspective on this.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #559 on: September 12, 2022, 11:43:38 AM »
I know between little and nothing about military stuff, but from what I'm hearing what was pulled off on Saturday was the best tactical manuvering since the Battle of Inchon. Would love to hear your perspective on this.

There is a lot and inbetween to make great judgement calls.  As I have mentioned so many times, it's so very difficult to judge what is going on, just by looking at the map.  It only tells half the story. The other parts of the story are the losses inflicted on both sides, and the current logistical situation.  Those are not really being spelled out for us, so you have to look at the map and make some judgement calls based on a lot of what the OSINT people are putting out on twitter. 

The map shows that the Ukrainians made a pretty damn good offensive to take the rest of Kharkiv Oblast back from the Russkies.  It was precluded by a bunch of talk about a major offensive against Kherson and Crimea.  I personally believe this to be misdirection, and perhaps the cleverest part of the entire operation.  The Putinverstehen believe it was a failed Ukrainian offensive in the south, but my gut tells me that the Ukrainians made a big deal about taking back Crimea to divert attention and shift Russian forces there to weaken the Donbas.  I could be wrong, but there is my take.  I am reminded about how in 1991 the coalition made a bunch of noise about attacking from Turkey into northern Iraq or even landing Marines directly into Kuwait, chiefly to divert Iraqi forces to the north and east against the very obvious buildup of forces along the border with Saudi.  Same thing with Overlord in 1944.  Anything to weaken the point where you plan to have your shwerpunkt. 

Where the best place to attack was kinda obvious.  Just as in 1991 and 1944.  I made mention that the Ukrainians should attack southeast of Kharkiv back in April, when the Russians were pressing hard south of Izium.  It was the logical spot.  I can read a map.  So it is even more important to pretend to attack somewhere else. 

I feel the Ukrainians have an aversion to offense on a professional level.  As the Russians have shown, large scale offense is HARD.  It takes A LOT of coordination, communication, battle management, training, and quite frankly, what the French would call "elan", or "couilles" more vulgarly, and most of all logistics logistics logistics.  The last time the Ukrainians made a real counterattack was back on the far russian right flank during the battle for Kyiv.  Back then they did it out of desperation.  Since then they have either been adverse to making counter-attacks or just didn't have the logistics in place. They're cautious.  It's possible they have reason to be.  But you can't win without l'audace.  Refrence Chapter 7: Characteristics of the Offense, in FM 100-5: Operations, 1993.  Hopefully the success that Ukraine has during this offensive makes them a little bolder, and makes the Russians even worse. 

Because the war is NOT OVER.  It appears to not be ushering in the endgame.  The Ukrainian offensive seems to have paused over the weekend to consolidate, resupply, or maybe this was their objective.  The Russians are trying to form a new line on the border of Luhansk Oblast.  I don't know their supply situation but some analysts have been predicted a breakdown of the AR for months.  Without general mobilization or more supply, it is inevitable, given the continuous supply of fuel, ammunition, and weapons from some NATO countries to Ukraine.  The Russians are now trying to get UAVs and military equipment from Iran and North Korea.  I think China is abandoning them.  China and Xi don't want to be on a losing side here and they're seeing which way the wind is blowing. 

So I don't really think this was the best thing since Inchon.  It wasn't even the best thing since Cobra in August of 1944.  The whole thing was promising and don't get me wrong it was successful.  But the scale of the success is not gigantic and the forces being utilized were worn down by 6 months of fighting.  Some of the OSINT sources I saw speak of the main avenues of attack and penetrations being made by armored company sized units.  That basically means that major portions of the victory were undertaken by elements the size of a small town's National Guard Armory.  Yes the scale of the distances were impressive.  You're talking about an operation almost the size of all of Normandy.  It's easy to forget that Ukraine is so huge.  But in the end, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being a General Millchet advance of a few yards, and 10 being a war ending offensive master-stroke like Desert Storm, this was a 5 or 6.  I was hopeful and still am that the Ukrainians can maintain this offensive with momentum and optempo, but looks like they are pausing. 

I think this was a VERY successful offensive, for Ukraine.  Who had not undertaken a real planned strategic offensive operation up til now.  But in terms of history, it does not approach Inchon, which would have ended the war if China had not eventually entered.  From 15 Sept to 20 Oct, 1950, (35 days?) the UN forces took back all of South Korea and conquered almost all of North Korea.  In 1991 the coalition forces defeated the entire Iraqi army in 100 hours with one turning maneuver.  The breakout after Cobra in 1944 saw the allied armies chase the Wehrmacht from Normandy to the borders of Germany and Belgium in another 35 days, after slogging through the bocage country since June 6th.  The stuff the Israelis did in 1973. Jeez.  Before Desert Storm, the IDF were THE gold standard on armored offensive and counter-offensive operations.  All these things that are seemingly impossible for the Russians to do, and difficult for the Ukrainians, the Israelis were basically born being good at.  I don't understand it.  Before 1973, there were people who said there was no point having an army in West Germany.  The Soviets would roll over it like a steamroller.  Nuclear weapons and the USAF was the only way to protect NATO.  1973 gave people hope that NATO could stand against the Soviets without resorting to nuclear weapons that could lead to armageddon. 

It isn't over.  The ZSU can still turn this into the first phase of a major counter-offensive that could end the war.  But every hour the ZSU pauses to rest or resupply is another hour the Russians have to reinforce, dig in, and resupply.  The important aspect is that the Ukrainians have shown they can conduct offensive operations given the supplies and weapons.  This was no mean feat.  But it was only a single step so far.   

The same axis of advance I mentioned earlier is still I think the best route to rolling up the Donbas.  Honestly, the best operational move right now would be for the Ukrainians to invade Russia and take Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh. Then watch the Russians *censored* all over themselves.  Of course, this might cause the wrong kind of panic and lead to a general mobilization or tactical nuclear release, but it's still the best operational move. The goal would be not only to decapitate the Russian's logistically but to create the kind of panic which could lead of "regime change" in Russia.  I honestly don't think it will happen. 

But if the ZSU can keep rolling up the Russian's right, they can sweep them right out of the Donbas, then cut the bridges to Crimea (problematic for civillian supplies).  I'd love to see the Ukrainians retake Crimea, but I don't think it is possible without amphibious capabilities, which the Ukrainians do not have, and even if they did, the Black Sea is still pretty Russian.  Maybe one day. 

 


DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #560 on: September 12, 2022, 02:46:10 PM »
Thank you for that.

As I said, I don't know much, which is why I asked for your perspective. Wouldn't be around here if I couldn't hear things from other people about things they're just better at.

I do have to ask, does morale not count? From most accounts, the loss the other day wasn't just a loss, it was a rout. Men were dropping what they had and just running for their lives. Russia just replaced yet another general in charge of the theater. Their logistics are a bit cut off now? I'm not saying the war will end in the next seven days, but from a laymen's perspective it looks like there is a good part of the invading army caught up against a wall.

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #561 on: September 12, 2022, 03:39:51 PM »
Just to reiterate -

Thanks, Grant.

I asked for your opinion and you gave me a 15 paragraph tldr embedded with book citations.

As I said, it's what we're all here for. Thank you for getting back to me.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #562 on: September 12, 2022, 05:16:41 PM »
I do have to ask, does morale not count? From most accounts, the loss the other day wasn't just a loss, it was a rout. Men were dropping what they had and just running for their lives. Russia just replaced yet another general in charge of the theater. Their logistics are a bit cut off now? I'm not saying the war will end in the next seven days, but from a laymen's perspective it looks like there is a good part of the invading army caught up against a wall.

Oh yeah.  Morale counts for a lot.  I think Clausewitz used to say something like the moral was to the material as 3 to 1. Or something like that.  He probably stole that from Napoleon. 

Now, the flip side to that argument is what happened to the French in 1914 and the years leading up to WW1, when all they taught in schools about offense was "elan!".  Then they "elaned" themselves into millions of dead, elaning into German machine gun zone of fires and concentrated German artillery. 

But morale is one of those things that are a little tougher to judge because it's more art than science.  Russian morale has always been bad.  Since the beginning.  It should be.  They been getting their asses kicked from the jump.  The number of disasters is pretty wide.  Meanwhile the Ukrainians have massive support and massive morale, starting from the top with Zelenskyy.  But what I'm seeing is a fractured army that is falling apart.  That is part of the analysis that the Russian army would disintegrate something this summer or fall. 

But the morale loss doesn't occur in a vacuum.  The causes of the bad morale for the Russians is mostly based on material problems.  Bad logistics.  Losses.  Bad training.  Bad leadership.  They're getting their asses kicked and it's getting to the point that they just don't want to die for the Rodina anymore and they are unable to steal enough washing machines to make their wives and girlfriends happy. 

As for the logistics, yes the whole aim of the attack at that point in the line was that it had already shown itself to be weak, and it was right at the juncture, a turn, in the Russian's line.  By hitting right there, they were able to cut the Russian supply routes to Izium.  That is the basis of maneuver offense.  To get into a position where the enemy's defensive positions are no longer tenable, usually because of logistics, forcing them to leave their prepared defensive positions and create a contact fight where the advantages of defense are lost.  It becomes a running fight, with the advantage given to those with initiative and momentum, all characteristics of the offense.  They can continue to attack along that axis, to continue to cut Russian supply lines, until the Russians are able to form another defensive line or the Ukrainians run out of fuel or ammo. 

The Russians are trying to form another defensive line now, right along the Oskil River.  To create a new shoulder to protect their right flank.  The river helps create a natural defensive position to help channel any further attacks from the ZSU.  The latest rumors I heard today is that the ZSU was now actually attacking north from Lyman, trying to outflank the new defensive positions from another direction, plus cutting off the Russian's supply lines for Severodonetsk by taking Hwy P66 from Svatove.  I can't confirm just now.  Lots of rumors flying.  People getting a little excited. 

But the whole AR in Ukraine isn't against the wall here.  You have maybe three Combined Arms Armies on the run.  That's no mean feat.  But we are only talking about the extreme right end of the Russian's front.  This thing stretched like a huge fish hook from Crimea and Kherson Oblast, through Zaproizhia Oblast, Mariupol, Donets Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, and finally to the hook end with Kharkiv Oblast.  So the hook end is being worn down.  But you still have a bunch more left.  I heard that the ZSU has taken back something like 7-8% of Russian occupied Ukraine with this offensive.  But they need to take back another 20% to really cut off all the Russians in Kherson Oblast off.  The Russians will probably abandon Kherson before that happens.  Unless the Ukrainians are able to take it quickly. 




msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #563 on: September 12, 2022, 07:56:46 PM »
I wonder how Tucker Carlson and the others who supported Russia are going to spin this as good for Russia?

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #564 on: September 13, 2022, 08:41:45 AM »
I wonder how Tucker Carlson and the others who supported Russia are going to spin this as good for Russia?

I don't know what he said about it last night.  I think he had Heather MacDonald on last night.    I do know that he had a doozy of a guest on Friday, Col (r) Douglas MacGregor.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlsons-ukraine-war-expert-totally-debunked-in-72-hours/

I'm not going to deep dive, but MacGregor basically said everything was going bad for the Ukrainians and they were about to lose.  Carlson then of course goes on a rant about how Uncle Joe provoked Pooter, and is only supporting Ukraine to hurt the United States.  Insert that stupid puzzled look that Tucker gets on his face when his guests are spewing nonsense. 

It's kinda sad though, really.  MacDonald was the Ops Officer that managed the Battle of 73 Easting.  The same battle that catapulted McMaster to Army stardom.  MacDonald was basically the guy who planned it and managed it.  Really a brilliant Armor officer.  I didn't always agree with his concepts of getting rid of the Division and Corps organizations in the Army, and reverting to a regimental system, but in hindsight he may have had a point or two.  But the guy was just never good with people and it just got worse.  Finally he fell down the MAGA cult hole and here we are.  It's just sad.  The way Lord Tinyhands has destroyed so many people. 

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #565 on: September 13, 2022, 03:46:07 PM »
Fallout from the Ukrainian gains?

Quote
Nearly 50 municipal deputies have now signed a petition demanding the resignation of President Vladimir Putin, 29 more than on Monday, according to one of those involved.

Ksenia Thorstrom, a municipal deputy of the Semenovsky District in Saint Petersburg, told CNN:

“Now we have 47 verified signatures. Their geography has expanded significantly.”
“My colleagues and I wanted to support the deputies from Smolninsky, who were recently summoned to the police and will soon have a trial,” Thorstrom said.

The petition says: “We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of its president Vladimir Putin are detrimental to Russia’s and its citizens’ future. We demand Vladimir Putin's resignation from the post of the President of the Russian Federation."

I fear that may not go well for them. What did they say?

Quote
“The rhetoric you and your subordinates use is full of intolerance and aggression,” the statement said. “People once again fear and hate Russia while we threaten the whole world with nuclear weapons.” The Lomonosovsky district added: “Therefore, we ask for you to be relieved of your duties as your views and governance model are hopelessly outdated.”

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #566 on: September 13, 2022, 05:13:04 PM »
Fallout from the Ukrainian gains?

My understanding is that these are many of the same people who have been against the war from the jump.  Mostly in St Petersburg. 

I can't confirm this yet.  It seems discontent is indeed growing in Russia.  Some people are actually speaking against Pooter on national television now.  It's usually just 1 guy against 3 or 4, but it's startling when they are saying on the state run tv channel that Russia cannot win in Ukraine without general mobilization and should end the war. 

But yes.  I would have to say this is the direct result of the gains in Ukraine and the rumors that are flying everywhere.  Generals relieved or captured.  Russian generals committing suicide when they see the equipment they are now being given.  Whole battalions or brigades in negotiations to surrender around Kherson.  I don't know what to believe, but I know it's all bad for Russia.  Today was supposed to be a referenda in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts to leave Ukraine and join the Russian federation.  You can bet that was cancelled.  Pooter was supposed to meet with some Generals.  That was cancelled and supposedly he's in his dacha somewhere out of Moscow. 

I'll be honest, I don't think that Russia will be able to hang on.  Their situation is *censored* right now in terms of logistics and morale.  I would not be surprised of the AR really did start to fall apart in Ukraine.  I read somewhere that there was a proclamation that no new units would be sent to Ukraine.  That's pretty much the only thing that could have saved the Russians.  Moving the last of their forces from the borders with Poland, the Baltics, Finland, and China.  The only question is how fast Ukraine can continue to put the pressure on the crumbling castle. 

The last time the AR collapsed like this was 1917.  It didn't really bode well.  I don't know if the people of Russia are going to want to turn back to communism, a form of socialism, or some kind of weird autocracy.  Honestly, I don't know of anyone in Russia that can mount a successful opposition.  The Germans had to ship Lenin and his boys in on a blacked out train in 1917.  Any kind of Russian opposition today would have to be expat. 

Fenring

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #567 on: September 13, 2022, 05:42:28 PM »
I can't confirm this yet.  It seems discontent is indeed growing in Russia.  Some people are actually speaking against Pooter on national television now.

I would like to suggest that this is probably less to do with incremental increases in discontent, and more to do with an incremental perception of a lack of deadly repercussions for saying so out loud. Once you feel the dictator won't come directly for you, because there are too many vocal dissidents, it probably means the dictator is losing the power to maintain total control of the narrative. This in turn probably means a reduction in the likelihood that random orders he issues will in fact be followed.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #568 on: September 14, 2022, 02:06:05 PM »
LOL.  Funny aside.

Yvegeny Prigozhin, the controller of Wagner Group, the Russian mercenaries fighting in Syria and acting as irregulars in Ukraine, is seen in a video recruiting in a Russian prison.  He says they don't usually recruit sex offenders, but they understand that sometimes people make mistakes.  LOL.  I guess they are running out of Vatniks to find in Samara Oblast.

Shouldn't be surprised.  LOL.  The guy spent 9 years in a St Petersburg prison for robbery. 

You look him up on Google and it gives his occupation as "Russian Chef".  LOL.  Because he owned some restaurants  .  Not "Russian Oligarch", or "FBI's Most Wanted". 

Ouija Nightmare

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #569 on: September 14, 2022, 04:07:54 PM »
LOL.  Funny aside.

Yvegeny Prigozhin, the controller of Wagner Group, the Russian mercenaries fighting in Syria and acting as irregulars in Ukraine, is seen in a video recruiting in a Russian prison.  He says they don't usually recruit sex offenders, but they understand that sometimes people make mistakes.  LOL.  I guess they are running out of Vatniks to find in Samara Oblast.

Shouldn't be surprised.  LOL.  The guy spent 9 years in a St Petersburg prison for robbery. 

You look him up on Google and it gives his occupation as "Russian Chef".  LOL.  Because he owned some restaurants  .  Not "Russian Oligarch", or "FBI's Most Wanted".

He’s a “legitimate businessman”

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #570 on: September 15, 2022, 12:24:32 PM »
Pooter travelling to Uzbekistan to meet with Pooh.   

Quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he understood that Xi Jinping had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine but praised China's leader for what he said was a "balanced" position on the conflict.

Translation:

Pooh:  You said this *censored* would be over in three days!  It's been seven months!  You're actually taking weapons AWAY from our puppets in Iran and North Korea and Syria!  You're setting back the plan YEARS!  You're *censored*ing up the world economy!  What is your plan?  Win or get out!

Pooter:  Please, gawd, don't abandon me! 

Pooh:  You're an embarrassment!  You're giving evil organizations a bad name.  And the Yankees are getting hard-ons now for Taiwan. 
« Last Edit: September 15, 2022, 12:26:49 PM by Grant »

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #571 on: September 16, 2022, 03:27:45 PM »
I am suspecting Taiwan is going to be visited by the PRC's military next month, but the lack of reporting on a military buildup on the Chinese coast is somewhat reassuring that I am being paranoid.

Mainland China looks to be in a bad way, and they could definitely use a good distraction that calls on their people's "patriotic pride/duty" right about now... But maybe they're smart enough to realize that ship has likely sailed already.

Of course, flipside is if they're just seeking to "rally around the flag" they may only send a token force to attack Taiwan. In which case, no buildup needed, what is there is enough.

yossarian22c

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #572 on: September 16, 2022, 03:48:50 PM »
I am suspecting Taiwan is going to be visited by the PRC's military next month, but the lack of reporting on a military buildup on the Chinese coast is somewhat reassuring that I am being paranoid.

Mainland China looks to be in a bad way, and they could definitely use a good distraction that calls on their people's "patriotic pride/duty" right about now... But maybe they're smart enough to realize that ship has likely sailed already.

I think that may have been the original plan if Russia rolled over Ukraine before anyone could do anything about it. Use that chaos and precedent to launch their own blitz on Taiwan. The world owes the Ukrainian people a debt. We've been arming them but if they  lost this war, the world would be a much darker place for a long time. The Chinese leadership are nothing if not patient. Unless they think everyone is out of weapons to send Taiwan's way and that no one will directly intervein then maybe they would take a shot but that isn't how I would read the tea leaves. Biden has made the clearest statements yet that America would likely defend Taiwan directly. American air and naval power alone probably prohibits the kind of naval fleet needed to land an amphibious invasion from successfully reaching Taiwan.

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #573 on: September 16, 2022, 04:13:49 PM »
In the 21 centuries does such wars make sense.  Logical reasoned sense?
Short term maybe the people rally behind a win, if they get it, and then what.

Were too connected to get to "punish" our neighbors for some historical slight or concept, not to also end up receiving a devastating kick to the nuts at best. Its not worth it. Lots of better ways to dominate then wasting the recourses for nothing.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #574 on: September 16, 2022, 04:26:53 PM »
I am suspecting Taiwan is going to be visited by the PRC's military next month, but the lack of reporting on a military buildup on the Chinese coast is somewhat reassuring that I am being paranoid.

Hmmm.  I'm not hearing anything.  I know they have had a big military build-up.  I know that looks similar to what Russia was doing at the end of of last year.  The difference is that US Intelligence had the skinny that Pooter was going to invade the rest of Ukraine.  We have assets inside Russia or have the means of reading their mail.  Uncle Joe tried to head off the invasion by exposing the plan, but not enough people really believed it was going to happen, including the Ukrainians and the Germans and the French.  Plus plenty of people in the US. 

If Uncle Joe were to maintain the same strategy, which seems to have worked in some ways (did not prevent an invasion, but the US and the IC was for once in a position to say "I told you so", and make the US look smarter), then the NSC would probably release info if China were in fact planning an invasion. 

I don't know if the US has the same penetration of China that it does Russia.  I don't tend to believe that just because we have agents in one country that we have the same level of visibility in another.  Or that our ELINT abilities necessarily cross over. 

BUT, an actual invasion of Taiwan would probably take a month to prep, and would have some real clear identifiers.  Troop movement, etc. 

Though the error trap that was fallen into with Ukraine was expecting Russia to fight like the United States would, particularly in the first week.  They didn't.  They did not have the plan or they did not have the ability to do the same things the United States can do militarily.  They have been stuck since then and been losing, though they havn't lost yet. 

The error trap as applied to China would be that China would not launch an invasion or an attack without having the forces in place to give them the best chance of winning in a war against Taiwan.  It's always possible that they go off half-cocked or attempt a surprise attack.  I've always believed that this was the most likely scenario in Korea. 

The flip side is that I'm not sure if the factors that led to Pooter making such a bad call in invading Ukraine applies to China.  Pooter was most likely being lied to by his security services about the likelihood of Ukrainian resistance.  Lied to by his own army and air force on their capabilities and readiness.  Then the final misjudgment was made on what NATO, particularly the Germans, Brits, and Americans would do.  It was a trifecta of "oops, got that one wrong". 

I don't know if Poohbear has the same level of psychophants and corruption going on in China as there was in Russia.  It's more than possible that Pooh has enough people telling him that war with Taiwan now is a bad idea.  That even if China won, it would be disasterous for the country. 

Part of this is honestly the reaction of Uncle Joe and Petunia.  They've pretty much broken the mold when it comes to strategic ambiguity.  Pretty much stating that the US would assist Taiwan in case of a war.  The Chinese just don't want that.  It's too much of a gamble I think.  Add to this that Cocaine Mitch has enough sway over the old guard to support Uncle Joe on Ukraine and Taiwan, despite the rise of MAGA. 

I believe that China would rather wait for 2025, and hope for a MAGA President or a new Democrat that doesn't give a *censored* about Taiwan.  There are plenty of people in the United States who would support such a move as abandoning Taiwan.  After all, we "don't have a treaty with them".  We are "not obligated".  Etc.  China always likes to think of time as being on their side.  They just need to wait for the right President that reflects the right people in the United States that would just as soon say "F Taiwan", the same way they said "F Ukraine" back in December and January.  Before it became popular to support Ukraine because MAGA was pro-Russian. 

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #575 on: September 16, 2022, 05:40:42 PM »
Putting aside the difficulties of landing your army on a fortified island that has had decades to prepare for it, the terrain itself of Taiwan is a defender's wet dream. With or without Western aid, taking Taiwan would be an absolute bloodbath for China. They'd still win, in the end, but it would be neither short nor pretty.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #576 on: September 16, 2022, 06:50:06 PM »
Taiwan is strategic for the US, would have a totally different motivation to protect it. TSMC makes 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors. Ukraine had trade amounting to 5 billion. Taiwan is 105 billion.

Even so, I suspect the approach would be similar if China were menacing Taiwan. Monetary support, arms, sanctions against China. Not dogfights and cruise missiles. We do know from experience, that it is possible to have a proxy war with China, but they had their veneer of cover like the earlier Russian actions in Crimea. A "volunteer" army made up of Russian nationals. Everybody knew what it was, but with a land border you can at least pretend.

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #577 on: September 16, 2022, 11:19:05 PM »
@Grant, my understanding is that Pooh is evidently very isolated from many of the goings on within China. For example the Chinese ban on Aussie coal. It is alleged that the resulting wide spread power blackouts due to shortages of the right kind of coal for power generation(from Australia) didn’t get communicated to Xi until several months later because "nobody wanted to be the messenger." Although I'm getting that by way of Peter Zeihan, wherever he got it from, but given his connections to US government think tanks among other things....

So he may be worse than Putin in regards to being surrounded by yes men. He just hasn't provided grounds to believe he has become as paranoid/unhinged as Putin has.

The "problem" the US has in "crying wolf" on Taiwan regarding China is that the US has "an obvious dog in the hunt" on that matter. Loudly calling attention to it may escalate the situation rather than give it a chance to settle out.

In Ukraine the US interests were comparatively minor. While what side the US stood on was clear, it also wasn't much of a risk to the US itself if simply making the accusation did in fact escalate the situation.

I also am inclined to think our Intelligence penetration into the Communist Party is any near as good as we would like. As such, sounding the alarm may also pose greater risks in exposing people and/or methods/means of obtaining said information.

Russia relied on American and other foreign contractors to make several sectors of their economy function as well as they did. China on the other hand, in contrast, has been very aggressive in replacing foreign workers with their own as soon as they possibly can for decades. Further, China has been aggressively pushing policies over the past years to either outright force foreigners to leave, or otherwise "strongly incentivise" their doing so. Which again greatly limits in-person Intel options.

Also until comparatively recently, China's economy was "going gangbusters" which makes incentives to "turn" Chinese natives against their government far more challenging. Meanwhile, in Russia, their economy has been horrible for decades, which makes "flipping" people child's play by comparison. Both nations have cultural corruption issues that are present at all tiers, but the Russians are the prize winners. And where there is run away corruption, there is plenty of graft for spies to leverage.

The Communist Party knows an invasion of Taiwan is going to be very bloody(for them) if they make a serious  attempt. They also know that isn't going to play well in a society where the one child policy has been in place for as long as nearly all of those soldiers have been alive.(Senior leadership being the exceptions)

Which is part of why a "We tried" limp wristed attack on Taiwan may be on the menu. It makes "proportionate response" very difficult for both Taiwan and the United States. And the resulting economic sanctions they would likely suffer would potentially play well to their domestic population. It "proves" the Taiwanese are vile traitors to China.

It "proves" that "the imperial western powers" are still up to the same tricks they were with the 8 powers Alliance during the early 20th Century as they seek to "carve up China" starting with Taiwan. (Never mind the 8 Powers Alliance was a direct response to the Boxer Rebellion and the Chinese Emperor doing nothing to help protect the citizens of those nations; although I will admit the punitive expedition it turned into went too far)

People seem to have a hard time grasping the idea that in the modern era under the American Global Order, fighting a war you know you will lose has actually become a viable option. One that China might be willing to exercise. Because they know the Americans are likely to simply "roll the clock back" to when the fighting started, at least as it relates to the core territories of China.(The Chinese Mainland) And should the Americans sieze any other Chinese territorial claims in the process(like the atolls in the South China Sea), that just makes more propaganda fodder domestically to demonstrate the Americans remain "untrustworthy imperialists."

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #578 on: September 17, 2022, 10:55:04 AM »
Taiwan is strategic for the US, would have a totally different motivation to protect it. TSMC makes 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors. Ukraine had trade amounting to 5 billion. Taiwan is 105 billion.

This is the sort of statement, I feel, that were I a Ukrainian woman whose country had been attacked and whose people were being killed and who desperately need all the help they can get, I would feel put out by.  We have rated the importance of their lives and their country as to the amount of trade we have with them.  How much money and stuff we get from them.  What important stuff we can get from them.  It's not exactly what I would call friendship.  It would probably be insulting. 

I mean, I understand the cold logic of realism in foreign policy does this.  But what I find strange is that often the same people who have this view of foreign policy, of others, have a completely different view when it comes to domestic policy.  The United States should only help those that it has an "interest" in, AKA makes us money.  But their view on immigration, healthcare, public works, welfare, and social services in general are often completely different.  It seems to me that a person with such a cold realist approach to foreign policy and foreign peoples, should have the same approach to domestic policies as well.  "What is in it for me"?  "Why should I pay to help others if there is nothing in it for me"?  "What is my interest"?  I find this dichotomy to be inconstant at best and hypocritical at worst. 

If relations between states or nations should be as relations between individual people, then I see no reason why New York should send ambulances and aid to Mississippi if it gets hit by a hurricane.  I'm sure that New York State does more trade with France than it does with Mississippi. 

But beyond a moral evaluation of the matter, I think we could expand the definition a bit further, in an exercise to meet the realists on their home ground.  After all, I think few would argue, even idealists, that the heart should rule all matters in foreign policy. 

I would offer that the United States does have an interest in Ukraine.  It specifically has an interest in if Russia conquers Ukraine, beyond the amount of trade we have with the country.  After all, presumably if Russia took over the country, trade would resume and be basically the same. 

First, the United States has an interest in maintaining the integrity of national sovereignty.  I hear some howls in the background, but try not to lose the script.  If you think the United States has violated this, we might disagree, but we should both agree that the US SHOULD respect national sovereignty and has an interest in maintaining that respect throughout the world.  I have no time for whatabouts here or tu quo.  The sovereignty of nations must be respected and maintained, regardless of a nation's contribution to another's GDP.   When the system breaks down in once place, it effects the entire system. 

Secondly, the United States has an interest in not having a belligerent nation suck up and absorb another.  The Ukraine is a powerful country.  With many brave people.  It's quite likely that many people in the United States think of Russia as some powerhouse and a nation like Ukraine as some kind of lightweight.  But a quick look at the CIA factbook would show otherwise. The US has no interest in seeing a nation that has shown itself to be hostile to US foreign policy aims and hostile against US allies, to grow stronger by conquering and absorbing a neighbor.  However powerful Russia is, it would be more powerful if it absorbed the people, economy, and military of Ukraine.  That is just the simple fact.  It is not in the interest of the United States to have Pooter's Russia begin an imperial expansion into eastern Europe. 

Why you ask?  Why should we care about eastern Europe?  It's their back yard you say?  Well, look at the map.  Taking Ukraine gives Russia greater access to the Black Sea.  That's why this all started with Crimea.  It gives Russia access to threaten Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Moldova.  Russia has shown itself to have no problem threatening neighbors to get what it wants.  What Pooter wants is more power and expansion. 

But NATO you say?  But what interest does the United States have in Finland or Lithuania?  If Ukraine is not important to the United States, then surely Lithuania and Estonia are not either.  I don't know how many billions of dollars the Lithuanians give us, but it's probably even smaller than what the Ukrainians give us. 

NATO serves a purpose.  It is an extension of the foreign policy of the United States and our interests.  NATO is the result of our interests, it is not the interest itself.  One is the servant, the other the master.  The treaty is not the master.  The interest is.  If the United States has an interest in Lithuania and Poland, it obviously has an interest in Ukraine.  Every country that we abandon as being unimportant weakens the alliance as a whole.  The weaker the alliance, the easier time an opponent has to exploit these fault lines.  This doesn't just go with NATO and Russia.  It applies to China as well. 

The trade that Ukraine has, while completely unimportant to the United States in comparison to it's trade with Taiwan it seems, is very important to other countries.  Ukraine feeds China, Holland, Egypt, Spain, and several countries in Africa.  The loss of Ukraine's exports means the price of food rises in the global market.  This reverberates around the entire market.  This means that people in Texas might be paying more for Doritos.  I remember the uproar, in this very forum, when apparently global warming was causing the cost of corn to rise, meaning poor people in the United States would not be able to afford as much and be hungry.  Apparently it is not good for global warming to raise the price of food, but it is okay for Russia to do it.  Does the United States not have an interest in keeping food prices down and maintaining global trade, regardless of how much it effects GDP? 

It has already become apparent the results of the support the United States has given Ukraine.  NATO has been strengthened.  China is wary and intel says that China has postponed any invasion for at least 2 years.  Europe seems to have woken from it's malaise concerning the threat from Russia.  It would certainly have been much better had Europe never fallen asleep in the first place.   It would certainly have been much better for Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and the entire world, had war been deterred in the first place. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #579 on: September 17, 2022, 11:47:00 AM »
It wasn't global warming causing that spike on the price of corn. But rather Ethanol subsidies which made it more profitable to turn it into fuel rather than use it as food. Because "we need ethanol to fight global warming."

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #580 on: September 17, 2022, 05:07:29 PM »
Reports are saying Ukraine has established a beachhead on the other side of the Oskil River.

They're advancing, slowly but surely. I'd have been more worried if after their unexpected gains they just charged ahead. Calmer minds, no doubt advised by American advisors, kept them in check. It honestly looks like they're going by the textbook to inflict a defeat in detail.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #581 on: September 18, 2022, 06:39:55 PM »
I think you might misunderstand me. It's not about only supporting countries in a naked self interest. And you acknowledge the realities. But there's a difference between liberating Kuwait and having a nuclear exchange with China or Russia. We have a stake in a stable world order, but we shouldn't trade it for the annihilation of the human race. If we were going to intervene on merit, we should have defended Tibet a long time ago. And the Palestinians for that matter. By expanding alliances in Estonia, we avoid the hard calculus by stating our intention up front. Which arguably we should have done with Ukraine, but Ukraine had a lot of problems - not as many as Turkey recently - but headaches that maybe we didn't need. We, as NATO by the way, not the US in isolation.

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #582 on: September 19, 2022, 06:39:36 AM »
If I were in charge in Taiwan, I'd rig explosives in all of the microchip factories, and promise to blow them all if the big C stuck it's nose too far in. Guarantees Western interest and probably makes China take a step back.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #583 on: September 19, 2022, 01:11:43 PM »
Quote
Part of this is honestly the reaction of Uncle Joe and Petunia.  They've pretty much broken the mold when it comes to strategic ambiguity.  Pretty much stating that the US would assist Taiwan in case of a war.

Speaking of which, on an interview with 60 Mynewts aired last night, Uncle Joe states that the US would commit US forces to defend Taiwan from an "unprecedented" attack by Chyna.  Immediately afterwards the Whitehouse walked the statement back stated that the situation has not changed. 

LOL.  This is a new form of Strategic Ambiguity.  Where the President says one thing and immediately afterwards his staff says something different.  LOL.  I don't know if it's planned or not, but it works.  China probably doesn't know WTF we'd do. 

yossarian22c

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #584 on: September 19, 2022, 01:57:10 PM »
Quote
Part of this is honestly the reaction of Uncle Joe and Petunia.  They've pretty much broken the mold when it comes to strategic ambiguity.  Pretty much stating that the US would assist Taiwan in case of a war.

Speaking of which, on an interview with 60 Mynewts aired last night, Uncle Joe states that the US would commit US forces to defend Taiwan from an "unprecedented" attack by Chyna.  Immediately afterwards the Whitehouse walked the statement back stated that the situation has not changed. 

LOL.  This is a new form of Strategic Ambiguity.  Where the President says one thing and immediately afterwards his staff says something different.  LOL.  I don't know if it's planned or not, but it works.  China probably doesn't know WTF we'd do.

Maybe after Ukraine it was decided to make the Strategic Ambiguity slightly less ambiguous. The President says one thing and "staff" say the official policy hasn't changed. I think if Ukraine fell quickly there would be fighting in Taiwan. But Ukraine didn't just hold they look to be winning now. I think it stays China's hand for the time being and it also seems to be awakening Taiwan's desire to build their own military power. Anti-ship, anti-aircraft weapons, some fortifications on the best landing areas, some subs, and maybe some smaller fast attack naval craft would be my completely amateur opinion of where they should invest their money. Combine that with the less expensive land units trained to fight with their terrain and they will be in decent shape. They need to be able to hold on their own for at least a month. Give time for the US navy and air force to get enough assets in place to stop more significant landings. Then go about the business of fighting the troops that did land with their supplies cut off.

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #585 on: September 19, 2022, 02:37:55 PM »
Quote
Part of this is honestly the reaction of Uncle Joe and Petunia.  They've pretty much broken the mold when it comes to strategic ambiguity.  Pretty much stating that the US would assist Taiwan in case of a war.

Speaking of which, on an interview with 60 Mynewts aired last night, Uncle Joe states that the US would commit US forces to defend Taiwan from an "unprecedented" attack by Chyna.  Immediately afterwards the Whitehouse walked the statement back stated that the situation has not changed. 

LOL.  This is a new form of Strategic Ambiguity.  Where the President says one thing and immediately afterwards his staff says something different.  LOL.  I don't know if it's planned or not, but it works.  China probably doesn't know WTF we'd do.

I think its a planed strategy. Of the possible answers, No, yes, maybe,  a yes with the follow up by the admin clarify that US policy remains the same is probably the best one.

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #586 on: September 20, 2022, 09:13:41 AM »
Taiwan needs to invest in HIMAR systems. Blow up the ships before they even put out the landing craft.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #587 on: September 21, 2022, 05:29:50 PM »
Quote
Flights out of Russia sold out fast after Vladimir Putin's announcement.

You don't say....

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #588 on: September 21, 2022, 07:05:44 PM »
Taiwan needs to invest in HIMAR systems. Blow up the ships before they even put out the landing craft.

Taiwan needs to invest in a lot of stuff.

I'll remind everybody that in 2014 Russia basically was able to walk into Crimea.  Ukraine had 8 years to get ready for round two.  With lots of help.  Not as much as I would have liked of course, but some people were worried about pissing off the Russians or trying to get dirt on some servers. 

Taiwan needs to take this stuff seriously.  And they need help.  The United States has been somewhat hands off for quite awhile.  Their best fighter is the F-16.  Their training and readiness doesn't seem to be the best because for YEARS nobody really believed that China and Taiwan would ever fight. 

It's true that the terrain and the difficulty of amphibious operations gives Taiwan the advantage.  But they shouldn't use that advantage as a crutch.  The Chicoms are taking the whole thing seriously. 

I don't think HIMARS is really the answer.  I would suggest they need to invest in as much air defense as they can possibly buy.  They already have some of the best stuff, but they need more of it and they need to be building it faster than the Chinese are building their ballistic and cruise missiles.  Because that is what the opening wave of the war will be.  About a million ballistic and guided cruise missiles.  Then Taiwan needs even more air defense to control the straight against aircraft.  Then they need a good enough air force to take on the PLAN.  That's honestly a lot to ask for.  But if they are going to just give up on airspace control, and just try and slog it out on beaches and on land, it's going to get very ugly I think. 

But, the hardest thing to figure out before hand is just how hard an army is going to be able to fight, or how inept they will be. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #589 on: September 21, 2022, 09:38:24 PM »
Taiwan needs lots of man portable anti-aircraft and anti-drone systems. The longer they can keep PLA helicopters and troop transports from air dropping troops, the better.

Beyond that, they need anti-shipping sea mines and systems that can be remote deployed from range for when China seeks to clear a sea lane. The longer they can keep transport craft and ships from making it to shore safely, the better.

Beyond that, machine guns and heavy anti-armor weaponry to make beach assaults as expensive as possible.

Anti Missile systems are nice in theory, but until the laser based systems are much improved, they can only do so much in the face of the PLA.... And Taiwan wouldn't be getting those in any case due to concerns about either espionage, or capture in the event China does invade. Nothing gets sent to Taiwan by the US that the US doesn't feel it is ready to "deal with" should the PLA try to use it against the US should they capture it.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #590 on: September 25, 2022, 10:11:04 AM »
Quote
Numerous videos have emerged of newly minted draftees staggering around drunk, throwing punches, shouting at military officers, cursing when told to form lines, and in Primorye territory in the Far East, swearing at the rusted-out Kalashnikovs they were handed

Looking real good there, Vlad.

DJQuag

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #591 on: September 26, 2022, 05:06:05 PM »
https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/26/russian-commander-shot-at-military-enlistment-office-in-ust-ilimsk-russia/


Looking reaaaal good.

Victim died. Good riddance. Protagonist could have gotten more burning down government buildings, but he cared for his "friend" who was enlisted.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2022, 05:08:52 PM by DJQuag »

Tom

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #592 on: September 26, 2022, 05:25:58 PM »
I'm not comfortable saying "good riddance" in response to the murder of career military, even if they're recruiting for evil causes.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #593 on: October 07, 2022, 12:50:25 PM »
Ahhhh.  What a difference two weeks makes. 

Welcome back to the show.  Isn't this so much better than student loan forgiveness or abortion rights or illegal immigrant hordes?  Anybody still not care what happens in Eastern Europe? 

A number of developments. 

1.  The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to make headway in the final eastern portions of Kharkiv Oblast.  Russians were pushed back from the Oskil River.  Kupyansk was taken.  Senkove.  Finally Lyman was surrounded and taken.  The counteroffensive has definitely slowed.  No more sweeping breakthroughs.  The ZSU is moving methodically and taking territory back a piece at a time.  Using the Russian methods.  I don't know if this is a problem with the number of forces available, if they took many casualties in the intial counterattack, or if it is a logistics problem, or if it is a decisiveness problem.  They have shown they can make large sweeping maneuver counter-attacks.  Next stop is into Luhansk Oblast and taking Svatove and sweeping around and behind Severodonetsk to cut off the Russians from the old Donets line.  The Russians have the benefit of terrain here, having successive rivers to fall back on and form defensive lines. 

2.  The Russians have MOBILIZED!  That's right.  Xi told Pooter to get his ass in gear or he's going to get rid of him, toss him out of the evil organization club, lol.  I heard they're drafting 300,000.  No small number. No longer a "special operation". 

Word seems to be that the drafting isn't going well.  Poor equipment.  Poor training.  Poor health.  Poor everything.  It's like 1940 all over again.  1914 may have been better for Russia.  If it is as bad as it is being presented, it is really really bad.  Like Valley Forge bad. 

The question remains wether mobilization is going to make any difference.  Throwing under training, poorly equipped, and overweight infantry into the front line in the Donbas is like throwing fat overweight cats into a meat grinder.  Maybe if you throw enough of them in it will slow things down.  I'm confident that the only use they will have is defensive.  Their logistics problems have not gone away.  Their leadership problems have not gone away and may be getting worse given the call up of elderly officers.  The corruption problems have not gone away.  They are not fighting Germans outside of Moscow who are exhausted after penetrating 1000km from Warsaw.  They are fighting Ukrainians in their own country with their own logistics not overextended.  Depleted maybe, but not overextended. 

One thing I am fairly certain of is that the mobilization will not cause the war to turn in Russia's favor.  They will not be able to launch their own offensives with poorly trained and ill-equipped infantry.  They don't have the tanks or armored vehicles or logistics capabilities to go back.  This is a move to prevent an inevitable collapse, that may in fact still happen. 

3.  Offensives around Kherson are starting to make headway.  Penetrations have been made all the way to Borozenske, along the left bank of the Dnipro.  The terrain sucks for defense.  The Russians only have two *censored*ty bridges to supply their forces on the left bank.  I think it's only a matter of time before the ZSU takes Kherson back. 

4.  Pooter is waving his nuclear missile dick around again.  Sure enough, it scared some old ladies.  I'll get to the response later, but first, the reality of the situation. 

Since things stabilized and it became obvious that Russia was not going to win quickly, and that time and pressure were on Ukraine's side as long as NATO and the EU continued to support them, I have given my opinion on what the endgame could be in Ukraine.  The endgame of course beginning when the Russians ran out of ways to win conventionally, which was, and still is, inevitable and is only a matter of time and western support.  When it became obvious that Russia was going to lose, Pooter could attempt to "escalate to deescalate", which is basically what he is trying to do now without stepping over the line.  But when all else fails, I will not lie, there is a POSSIBILITY that Pooter decides to fire off a tac nuke inside Ukraine, at Kyiv, or some major logistics bases like Dnipro, Kremenchuk, Cherkasy, or even as far west as Lviv, where they are receiving all their NATO equipment.  The purpose of this would be to fighten the west into abandoning Ukraine and allowing the Russians to salvage whatever they were still holding on to.  I no longer believe that the Russians would be able to actually utilize tactical nuclear weapons to actually overrun Ukraine.  They just don't have to forces for it anymore.  They could nuke all of the ZSUs airbases and major cities and it still wouldn't help them.  The goal is to create fear and force a settlement from NATO/US.  At this point, it probably wouldn't matter to the Ukrainians either.  They could vaporize half their army and Zelenskyy, and I think they'd still fight on, with or without NATO, and I don't think the Lithuanians and Poles will abandon them now, whatever the cost. 

The lynchpin in these situations is the United States.  Europe has for too long considered Russia as a giant scary superpower.  They even thought that way back in 1914.  They still have their nukes.  They are still scary.  But the United States has traditionally stood up against the Soviet Union and not been scared.  The posture of the United States will be the key deciding factor.  France and Germany may or may not pull back, but the UK may continue to support even without US support.  The Scandinavians are not scared. 

NATO and Uncle Joe have already signaled to Russia that using nuclear weapons would be a mistake.  This may be seen as a counter-threat, which it in fact is.  The nature of the threat is unknown.  I have given my opinion that the best way to respond to a tactical nuclear attack would be to respond with a tactical nuclear attack of our own, response in kind, which would signal to the Russians that they cannot win or drive lack of western support away.  This may not be necessary anymore, since the Russians really don't have the ability to win anymore.  A massive conventional response may be possible to signal the same thing, but could also simply encourage Pooter to try to tac nuke Germany or Poland. 

I believe that fever dreams of Armageddon are unrealistic and silly.  Starting a strategic nuclear war does not help Russia.  It doesn't help Pooter.  It doesn't help China or India or the Mid East.  I don't believe that Pooter is crazy.  If he was he wouldn't be having meetings with his people while 30 feet away from them. 

The best way to deter a nuclear exchange in Europe is to maintain a strong stance, from the United States and NATO, that nuclear escalation will not succeed in de-escalation. It will be met in kind or in some conventional equal matter.  NATO will not back away from Ukraine.  Nuclear strikes will only increase NATO involvement.  The more clear this is the less chance of a nuclear strike. 

5.  Not everybody feels this way.  There are LESS people worried about it, but the voices that are are becoming bigger and louder.  Elon Musk is the latest to suggest that the west should pressure Ukraine to give up Crimea and Donbass to prevent the possibility of nuclear Armageddon.  The same tankies are still singing the same tune.  The same pro-Russian voices on the right are singing the same tune.  Tucker Carlson is basically doubling down.  Elon Musk too, after being horribly ratioed on Twitter.  But more people have come to the realization, that I pointed at at the beginning, that if your goal is Ukrainian victory, that includes Russian losing, which will always come back to the same decision point and the same threat.  You either fold or call.  You can't keep folding every time the other guy goes all-in. 


Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #594 on: October 07, 2022, 10:05:27 PM »
Elon Musk continues to step on his own trunk on Twitter:

After a story surfaces in Financial Times reporting Starlink not working along the front lines in Ukraine, Musk replies that what is happening is "classified". 

Now, given recent history, people are assuming that the shortages are recent and in response to Musk being rebuffed on his "peace plan" in response to Putin's nuclear threats.  Or they are assuming that he is shutting down Ukrainian internet because they are not paying their bills, something he mentions immediately before his "classified" comment. 

The reality seems to be that the outages are not new and that they are geofencing to prevent RUSSIANS from using Starlink, not the Ukrainians.  But Elon's poor communications in the situation has led many people to assume that he is doing it out of spite or because he wants money. 

This should be a lesson in communications for business leaders.  A skill that the vast majority of them have, but it seems that some people who believe they are smarter than the average bear seem to have trouble understanding.  I have rarely seen an individual go from "hero to zero" with such speed.  All from self-inflicted wounds by an individual who thinks that because they have money or are really smart in one area, it must mean that they are smart everywhere. 

In other news, Pooh did not wish Pooter a happy birthday. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #595 on: October 08, 2022, 12:55:59 PM »
So last night somebody blew up the Kerch Bridge.  This is the bridge that links the Crimean Peninsula to the Taman Peninsula in Russia and is the longest bridge in Europe, built following the Russian invasion in 2014, allowing supply of Crimea directly from Russia instead of by ship/ferry.  Some people think it was a missile or spec op operation.  Others seem to think it was a suicide vehicle attack or remotely piloted vehicle attack.  So far I'm leaning towards the suicide van attack.  One half of the bridge seems to have collapsed and a train carrying oil tankers caught fire on the railway portion. 

The Ukrainians are not admitting responsibility and are also not denying responsibility, and government Twitter accounts have already publicly stated that it was a good thing.  The post office will be creating a commemorative stamp of the event, and the second largest bank in Ukraine is apparently coming out with a new debit card featuring the event. 

What's important about this bridge?  It is the main logistics route/choke point for bringing in all supplies into Ukraine.  Particularly military supplies, but also just about everything that comes into Ukraine for civilians as well that does not come into Sevastapol.  The Russians can still route through Maripol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and from there into Crimea, but the railway doesn't go directly along the route like the M14 Highway does.  Mariupol and Berdyansk are actually spurs running off a line from Donetsk, Volnovakha, Polohy, Tomak, to Novhorodkivka.  But either way, this rail line is easily within reach of the ZSUs HIMARs.  Where the route runs south of Donets, it's only about two klicks away from the front line!  To be clear, this is a main supply route into Crimea.  It is THE main supply route but not the only one.  They can still ferry and ship across the Kerch Straight and ship directly into Sevastopol.  But forget about moving stuff quickly. 

Why would Ukraine do this, or do it now?  Outside of simply removing a main supply route, I think the primary reason is that they have intel that Russia is planning to reinforce Crimea and Kherson with their mobilized reservists.  While these guys probably won't be worth a damn on the attack, you can easily have them dig trenches to live in and make Kherson and Crimea extremely costly, maybe too costly, for Ukraine to take back.  This is just a guess though. I don't have any special intel myself.  It's possible this wasn't even planned by the ZSU and one rogue did all this.  But I think besides Luhansk, Russia is most afraid of losing Crimea.  So I think their reinforcements are headed in those two directions first.  I could be wrong.  The Russians have recently been making a strong attack on Bakmut, between Sievierodonetsk and Donetsk. 


Official Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate facebook page is reporting arrests of SV troops are being arrested in Moscow. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #596 on: October 09, 2022, 10:31:00 AM »
Pooter has called for a meeting of the Security Council on Monday.  Personally, I wouldn't stand near any windows. 

If we're lucky they'll off the guy.  More likely some of them will get offed.

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #597 on: October 09, 2022, 11:54:31 AM »
If Russia does an extremely limited nuclear strike of the tactical kind, the NATO response should be a massive conventional counterattack. With it made clear that any more nukes means the nukes will come out in response. Otherwise the conventional assault continues until the entire Command Chain that authorized that nuclear strike is turned over for prosecution for war crimes.

"Nuke for a nuke" is a sucker's game. The only way to make it clear that the global community does not want to see nukes used in warfare is to do everything possible short of that final option.

Tom

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #598 on: October 09, 2022, 12:11:21 PM »
I can't think of a scenario where the Republicans and the leftist tankies allow Biden to push NATO into a massive conventional war.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #599 on: October 09, 2022, 12:48:26 PM »
If Russia does an extremely limited nuclear strike of the tactical kind, the NATO response should be a massive conventional counterattack. With it made clear that any more nukes means the nukes will come out in response. Otherwise the conventional assault continues until the entire Command Chain that authorized that nuclear strike is turned over for prosecution for war crimes.

"Nuke for a nuke" is a sucker's game. The only way to make it clear that the global community does not want to see nukes used in warfare is to do everything possible short of that final option.

Meh.  You're stating a position that should probably have been stated prior to release.  If Pooter didn't believe that NATO would respond with a nuclear attack in kind at first, and then it is demonstrated, why would he believe the release would occur after the second strike. 

2.  A NATO conventional attack means that the next tac nuke strike will be in NATO bases in Germany or Poland.  After that, your options for a "massive conventional counterattack" are limited. 

When I hear "massive conventional counterattack", in response and in balance with a tac nuke strike inside Ukraine, I imagine a strike on Russian logistics centers within Belgorod, Voronezh, Volgograd, and Rostov on Don.  Then airfields.  Then the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.  That is going to be undertaken by the USAF.  There is nothing else in theatre that can do that.  NATO air forces can help, but they won't go alone.  I don't think the Baltic or Northern Fleets will be targeted because they are out of theatre. 

The problem is two-fold.  First, the USAF really doesn't have the footprint just right now to make that massive counter-attack.  You'd have to deploy additional units from CONUS.  The US Navy may be concerned about action in the Aegean, being so close to Turkey.  They won't sail into the Black Sea, also because of Turkey.  Secondly, the USAF while being extremely flexible and able to deliver the punch, is also the most vulnerable to more tac nuke strikes.  In the end, all your planes have to land at airfields and become concentrated targets.  Perfect for tac nuke strikes. 

A full conventional war with the US Army entering Ukraine would take time, and would again make a nice target for a follow on tac-nuke.  You hit a Divisional or Brigade assembly area in Poland or Germany and "poof", your counterattack has vaporized. 

No.  I contend that the easiest and best way to prevent escalation after a tac nuke strike in Ukraine is "response in kind".  Send a B-2 or some F-22s to tac nuke some airfield in Russia.  Clear message:  every time you send a nuke to us, we send one back.  You can't win.  This prevents spiraling escalation because the whole purpose of a tac nuke strike by Pooter at this point is to terrify NATO into abandoning Ukraine and forcing a peace settlement where Pooter gets to keep the Donbas and Crimea. 

Use of a tac nuke by Pooter isn't madness.  It is a rational gamble.  Just like everything else he has done.  He's trying to raise himself out of a bad hand. 

The final threat is clear.  Pooter clearly states that if NATO doesn't force a peace settlement, he will launch strategic nuclear weapons on the US and NATO countries.  Full nuclear armageddon war.  I don't believe it would occur because MAD still holds.  If Pooter starts a full nuclear war, nobody wins, just everybody loses.