I thought we didn't have to worry about Russia using nukes, that it would be suicidal?
Oh, I haven't changed my opinion that it is a bluff. Yes, it would be suicidal. But you see, we're back in the same position. Pooter says "if you do this, I will nuke you", and some people tend to believe him, or at least believe that the juice is no longer worth the squeeze.
The initial presumption was:
"Stay out of the war, or I will nuke you"
And the idea was that the juice was not worth the squeeze, simply because Ukraine wasn't in NATO.
What will be next?
"End all sanctions on Russia, or I will nuke you"
"End NATO military aid to Ukraine, or I will nuke you"
"Do not let Finland and Sweden into NATO, or I will nuke you"
Will the juice be worth the squeeze then?
Now, I will admit that the risk is never zero, and the consequences of nuclear war are quite heavy. Maybe the heaviest consequences you can imagine. It's quite a gamble. When do you gamble with millions of people's lives? When can you afford not to? Different people are going to have different answers. It's interesting to note that the majority of the voices calling for military intervention by NATO are military or ex-military. Different set of risk tolerances for different situations than your standard joe or jane. That's both good and bad.
Don't pretend that NATO isn't in this war. We're shipping ass tons of weapons to Ukraine every day. We're giving them intel. We're flying surveillance missions daily right over the Polish and Romanian borders. We're flying drones into the Black Sea. We're funneling all that stuff to the Ukrainians. Their defense of Kiev and Kharkiv are not entirely miracles. The courage of the Ukrainians, that's all theirs and wow, it's no small part. But NATO is involved. Pooter knows this. *censored* isn't going his way and he's probably not happy.
I'd like to remind everyone that the United States was brought into the Second World War because of an enemy attack that was a response to economic sanctions. Japan saw the sanctions by the US as interference in Asian affairs, and an attempt to limit their influence and power in the Pacific. How do you think Pooter sees economic sanctions by the US and EU? The Japanese saw was as inevitable. How many talking heads have been spouting BS about "Thucydides Traps" over the last 20 years? Think Russia and China see things the same way?
No, I don't think Pooter is going to nuke anybody. But some people might think he will, or think that the juice is not worth the squeeze, or that the risk/consequences are too high take the risk of confrontation. That being said, deterrence is all about believability. We draw our line, Pooter is drawing his. The right answer is that we shouldn't be drawing the line anywhere except using nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the use of the same. I understand that the US government and Russian government can't quite come out and say that, but I also know that the US government isn't the one consistently threatening to use them under different circumstances.
If Pooter decides to detonate a nuke over Greenland, a kind of crazy "warning shot", would people be cowed or infuriated?
The key here is that Pooter is less likely to resort to nuclear use the more he has to lose. Pooter is rapidly running out of things to lose. He's losing his war for Ukraine. He hasn't lost, but he's losing by virtue of not winning. Russia's economy is being threatened with destruction. Any dreams of power and glory and respect and fear are rapidly evaporating. If he can't have power and glory and respect, maybe he'll settle for fear.
