Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка

[NobleHunter]

Given how thoroughly Russia has stuck its junk in a meat grinder, I think the current international order still has awhile to go before it collapses. The destruction of the Russian army without a shot fired by NATO I think proves that attempts to hurry along the end of Pax Americana is not a safe proposition. If we're really lucky it suggests that a modern system army is incompatible with authoritarian regimes and that anyone who's likely to play the game by the old rules will end up with similarly shredded junk.

[TheDeamon]

Given how thoroughly Russia has stuck its junk in a meat grinder, I think the current international order still has awhile to go before it collapses. The destruction of the Russian army without a shot fired by NATO I think proves that attempts to hurry along the end of Pax Americana is not a safe proposition. If we're really lucky it suggests that a modern system army is incompatible with authoritarian regimes and that anyone who's likely to play the game by the old rules will end up with similarly shredded junk.

Well, the US Navy's CNO is thinking China might invade Taiwan as early as next year. So we'll see when the meat grinder gets to have its next test.

[DJQuag]

Not to be that guy, but have you looked at Taiwan's land recently?

It's an island completely made up of mountains. They've had decades to bring up their defenses.

Ukraine is just flat fields, willing and able to put forth barges full of grain and we're bending back to give them weapons and social support. Howeventy amount of computer chips is gonna come out of Taiwan and you think for a *censored* second  we're going to allow that to be interrupted?

Taiwan isn't getting invaded. Not today, not tomorrow. It's all posturing.

[rightleft22]

If only Leaders were always relational
More and more now I wonder is their isn't a general 'mood'/'energy'  to burn it all down. Its like we want to screw ourselves over. 

[DJQuag]

China was thinking about how it could engage the US.

The US reached across the Atlantic Ocean and slapped the Russian Army directly in the face.

China now knows to shut up about Taiwan.

[DJQuag]

If only Leaders were always relational
More and more now I wonder is their isn't a general 'mood'/'energy'  to burn it all down. Its like we want to screw ourselves over.

You alright mate?

[NobleHunter]

Certainly not until it's solved the problem of Big and Modern in a legacy army. Like Russia, the part of China's army that's Modern isn't Big and the part that's Big isn't Modern. Ukraine proved you can't rely on the Modern part lasting long enough for the Big part to be telling.

[DJQuag]

Certainly not until it's solved the problem of Big and Modern in a legacy army. Like Russia, the part of China's army that's Modern isn't Big and the part that's Big isn't Modern. Ukraine proved you can't rely on the Modern part lasting long enough for the Big part to be telling.

It takes a moment. I get it.

That's what Russia is banking on. Their thoughts. They think they can kill enough young men and when the men die the women just put up a storie .

[Grant]

Taiwan isn't getting invaded. Not today, not tomorrow. It's all posturing.

If it's all posturing, it's pretty good posturing and it's pretty expensive posturing.  The PLA and PLAN is being directly built up to win in Taiwan and challenge in the East and South China Sea.  They have been pretty loud about setting a deadline, though it is still a way aways and the current leaders will most likely be dead by then so no real accountability.  Despite the terrain the Chicoms have been building up their indirect fires to the point that they have some real ability to put down some hell on Taiwan, regardless of the terrain.  It's expensive of course, but it's not like China is running out of $$$.  Taiwan has been pretty lackadaisical.  The US figured their best bet was pulling further back, out of Okinawa, but that just makes it harder, not easier.  It's hard to defend Taiwan from Guam or Hawaii. 

To me, the only thing that would make it all posturing is the Chinese people's lack of belief that a war would ever really happen.  But I don't think the Russians in Rostov Oblast ever really thought there would be a war against Ukraine.  It's possible Xi is looking to take advantage of things in Europe right now. 

The US reached across the Atlantic Ocean and slapped the Russian Army directly in the face.

Hmmm.  I rather think that it was the Ukrainians that did the slapping.  US and NATO weapons, training, and advisors played a part, but history has shown that just equipping an army with western weapons doesn't guarantee victory. 

Certainly not until it's solved the problem of Big and Modern in a legacy army. Like Russia, the part of China's army that's Modern isn't Big and the part that's Big isn't Modern. Ukraine proved you can't rely on the Modern part lasting long enough for the Big part to be telling.

I don't believe that the lesson should be that the Russians didn't have a good enough or modern enough Army to win in Ukraine.  I honestly think they did.  They just used their army, and in particular their air force, incompetently.  It was their officers and generals and soldiers that sucked, not the equipment. 

I don't think I can fully compare Russian troops to Chinese troops.  Anybody who has ever seen the Asians in action know that they have a few things down pat that the Russians don't.  Discipline for one.  Whether Chinese officers and generals are really that much better than the Russians remains to be seen.  But I have a feeling there is less corruption in China than in Russia.  The Chinese don't seem to put up with corruption the same way the Russians do. 

[Grant]

Too much and too little for a good update.  It's exhausting and I'm not even working hard on the stuff like some of the OSINT people. 

There are signs that Kherson might finally fall soon.  Signs that the Russians are setting up to pull back behind the Dnipro.  But how long we been saying that?  A month? 

This war is dragging on and it's only going to drag more that winter is coming.  There doesn't seem to be any more capability for the Ukrainians to make any more massive maneuver victories as they did in September.  Their strategy seems to be a version of the Russian strategy, just with better weapons.  Lay back and hit them with artillery/drones.  Yes the Ukrainians have been pushing in Kherson Oblast, but they are being stymied by the remains of the VVS/VKS.  They're trying to horde their resources and not loose any more people.  It's understandable.  They've lost so much already.  But it's not going to get any easier.

Taking back Kherson north of the Dnipro will be a major victory, but having the Dnipro as a defense will make the remaining Russians that much stronger.  The only good news would be how long the Russians held out and wasted troops in the northern areas.  Same as their wasteful attacks in Bakhmut.  But it makes sense on an strategic level to attack the enemy's center if all their strength is on the flanks right now.  It's just not working because it's Russia using Russians. 

The Russians lost some more ships in port in the Black Sea Fleet.  Guess they didn't have booms out.  Typical Russians.  Though I bet no US port has booms either.  Lots of talk of Lepanto but it's not that revolutionary.  Same as people saying the tank is over or helicopters are over.  It's not the equipment. It's Russians being incompetent. 

Sorry.  No endgame in sight.  Russians squealed, even less people listened, and we're back to attrition warfare. 

Ukrainians want more weapons and ammo.  The far right and the far left don't want to give it to them.  The far right wants money to stop the southern hordes.  The far left wants money to combat climate change, billionaires, and racism.  Congress may try and pass a huge $50+ Billion defense bill for assistance to Ukraine if the Red Toilet Overflow occurs, which seems increasingly given, during the lame duck session. 

[DJQuag]

I mean, you say that. China has shut the hell up. Anyone? Heard China saying a word?

[Grant]

I mean, you say that. China has shut the hell up. Anyone? Heard China saying a word?

Poohbear, Oct 16, 2022

Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is, for the Party, a historic mission and an unshakable commitment. It is also a shared aspiration of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation and a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. We will implement our Party’s overall policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era, maintain the initiative and the ability to steer in cross-Strait relations, and unswervingly advance the cause of national reunification.

The policies of peaceful reunification and One Country, Two Systems are the best way to realize reunification across the Taiwan Strait; this best serves the interests of Chinese people on both sides of the Strait and the entire Chinese nation. We will adhere to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus. On this basis, we will conduct extensive and in-depth consultations on cross-Strait relations. and national reunification with people from all political parties, sectors, and social strata in Taiwan, and we will work with them to promote peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and advance the process of China’s peaceful reunification.

We will stand closely with our Taiwan compatriots, give firm support to patriots in Taiwan who desire reunification, and join hands to keep pace with the trends of history. We will safeguard the overall interests of the Chinese nation and take resolute steps to oppose “Taiwan independence” and promote reunification. Our great country will forever stand firm behind all patriots who support reunification.

Blood runs thicker than water, and fellow Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family bound by blood. We have always shown respect and care for our Taiwan compatriots and worked to deliver benefits to them. We will continue to promote economic and cultural exchanges and cooperation across the Strait, advance our integrated development in all fields, and improve systems and policies that contribute to the wellbeing of our Taiwan compatriots. We will encourage people on both sides of the Strait to work together to promote Chinese culture and forge closer bonds.

Taiwan is China’s Taiwan. Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, a matter that must be resolved by the Chinese. We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary. This is directed solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking “Taiwan independence” and their separatist activities; it is by no means targeted at our Taiwan compatriots.

The wheels of history are rolling on toward China’s reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without doubt, be realized!

[DJQuag]

I stand corrected.

[rightleft22]

Hollywood actor Sean Penn gives his Oscar to Zelensky

A day late and a dollar short - really WTF.
Maybe he should have given the Oscar to Pooter before this all started. We like you we really like you no need to invade Ukraine for attention. 

[Grant]

A day late and a dollar short - really WTF.
Maybe he should have given the Oscar to Pooter before this all started. We like you we really like you no need to invade Ukraine for attention.

I dunno.  I guess that's all he has to give.  Zelenskyy graciously accepted it. 

Personallly I think Zelenskyy would rather have had Penn bring an F-16 or an M-1 tank.  But Penn doesn't have any of those. 

I mean, I can't crap on this too hard.  I havn't given anything worth that much.  So honestly Penn is supporting Ukraine more than I am so who am I to say it was lacking?

[rightleft22]

As a personal one on one moment its a nice gesture. But as a news story, I don't know... I wish it didn't take that kind of story to keep Ukraine on peoples radar.
I find everything about the war absurd. That we, humanity, haven't learned better 
I guess in that light the Oscar gift makes a lot of sense. I Life as a game, a movie playing itself out.

Speaking of the game, Russia orders retreat from Kherson, its only occupied regional capital in Ukraine. No idea what Russia is up to

[DJQuag]

Now, I will usually say Russian claims of PR are BS.

The last week there have been several claims that hundreds of Russians have been dieing every day. Do I hope it's true? I mean, it's complicated, conscripts and then blah blah. They're invading a democraticly elected country and raping, murdering, and doing Gad knows what else.

I kinda want these claims to be true. I want these fascist invaders to be made to shut down.

If they were all conscripts, not wanting to go, given little equipment and no command...I feel sorry for them.

[Grant]

Speaking of the game, Russia orders retreat from Kherson, its only occupied regional capital in Ukraine. No idea what Russia is up to

Yeah.  This has been telegraphed for like a week or more.  But I been sitting on it because there has been some cross messaging.  Like while pulling down flags and pulling out troops other troops are digging in inside Kherson.  All kinds of cross reports. 

I personally believe that the Russians have been getting ready to leave Kherson.  But they have been hanging on.  I don't know what to believe, particularly when it is a Russian saying "Da, tovarish.  We are leaving to secure other side of Dnipro River."  I mean, you can't believe anything they say, especially in public.  So despite all the signs I've been wary just in case this was some Russian trap.  The fact that the Ukrainians are not charging into this organized withdrawl is further sign that they are wary as well.  If Ivan was really doing a controlled withdrawl, this would be the time to pour on the heat.  Break through the lines and cause some chaos.  But it's also still possible that the Ukrainians are really maximizing force protection and don't want to take any risks. 

This is a very frustrating form of war for me.  It lacks maneuver and decision.  I feel like Lincoln in 62.  I personally feel that the lack of decision only prolongs the death and suffering of Ukrainians, Russians, and the economic suffering of all of Europe.  But I'm not a Ukrainian General.  It's possible they are short on troops as well.  Why force anything when the Russians continue to beat their heads against the wall in Bakhmut?   It's also possible that the Russians want to lure the Ukrainians into Kherson to create an urban battle that will negate many of the advantages that the Ukrainians have. 

As for regional/oblast capitals, Russia still occupies Sevastapol, Simferopol, Donetsk, and Luhansk. 

[rightleft22]

It's also possible that the Russians want to lure the Ukrainians into Kherson to create an urban battle

This was my first thought - based on nothing other then a feeling that all was not as it appeared. The Ukrainians seem to be getting good intelligence so maybe they know something.

[yossarian22c]

It's also possible that the Russians want to lure the Ukrainians into Kherson to create an urban battle

This was my first thought - based on nothing other then a feeling that all was not as it appeared. The Ukrainians seem to be getting good intelligence so maybe they know something.

Sounds reasonable. Easier to fight urban warfare if you don't care how many civilians you kill. Russia may have artillery lined up to hit the city or a dirty bomb ready to detonate if the Ukrainians push too hard.

[Grant]

Sounds reasonable. Easier to fight urban warfare if you don't care how many civilians you kill. Russia may have artillery lined up to hit the city or a dirty bomb ready to detonate if the Ukrainians push too hard.

Nah.  The Russians have been "evacuating" (kidnapping) most of the Ukrainians in Kherson and forcing them into Russia.  A dirty bomb would not be nearly as effective in an urban environment because the urban environment has plenty of cover against fallout and shielding against radiation.  Even if it is just concrete and steel.  Same thing for artillery.  The urban environment gives the most cover, particularly against air bursts that can be so effective against troops in trenches with no overhead cover. 

The advantage that the urban environment would give is that it would neutralize the newfound artillery advantage that the Ukrainians have, and the ranged engagement advantage from the superior technology and equipment, and the recon advantage the Ukrainians have from drones.  The fighting is reduced to house to house infantry battles, which the Russians can still excel at because it does not require technology or even numbers.  Just stubbornness and small arms.  Things the Russians still have.  Plus I think the Russians may be grasping at straws and are falling back on the myths of Stalingrad, Moscow, and Leningrad (not really "myths" but they are using them in the same manner) to give them some hope to turn the tide.  Suck the Ukrainians into a costly urban battle and let THEM bleed themselves dry for a change. 

On the other hand, they could really be retreating and just setting up all these positions in Kherson to make the Ukrainians THINK they are setting a trap so they are cautious, allowing them to get away.  Normally, I don't give the Russians much credit on their misdirection ploys, but it's hard to get the legend of maskirovka out of your head.  I would trust Ukrainian intel.  They would know if the Russians were really pulling out of Kherson.  I wouldn't trust any Russian announcements over the TV. 

[yossarian22c]

Sounds reasonable. Easier to fight urban warfare if you don't care how many civilians you kill. Russia may have artillery lined up to hit the city or a dirty bomb ready to detonate if the Ukrainians push too hard.

Nah.  The Russians have been "evacuating" (kidnapping) most of the Ukrainians in Kherson and forcing them into Russia.  A dirty bomb would not be nearly as effective in an urban environment because the urban environment has plenty of cover against fallout and shielding against radiation.  Even if it is just concrete and steel.  Same thing for artillery.  The urban environment gives the most cover, particularly against air bursts that can be so effective against troops in trenches with no overhead cover. 

Urban environments give a lot of cover. But the Russian's don't seem to care how much artillery they fire and what the collateral damage is in firing it. Or maybe they are retreating the "regular" army back across the river for later and replacing them with poorly equipped conscripts. Hoping the conscripts can at least make a mess of Ukraine retaking the city.

[TheDeamon]

I don't believe that the lesson should be that the Russians didn't have a good enough or modern enough Army to win in Ukraine.  I honestly think they did.  They just used their army, and in particular their air force, incompetently.  It was their officers and generals and soldiers that sucked, not the equipment. 

I don't think I can fully compare Russian troops to Chinese troops.  Anybody who has ever seen the Asians in action know that they have a few things down pat that the Russians don't.  Discipline for one.  Whether Chinese officers and generals are really that much better than the Russians remains to be seen.  But I have a feeling there is less corruption in China than in Russia.  The Chinese don't seem to put up with corruption the same way the Russians do.

I am unconvinced. I do think China is less corrupt over-all than the Russian Military, but that still doesn't say much. "Tofu Dreg construction" is a very real thing in China, and it doesn't apply to just structures. Chinese corruption just tends to pursue a slightly different path, and is far less overt in many cases.

As to military discipline. That can cut both ways. The US military is "positively undisciplined" compared many of the feats of military drill and a few other things the PLA devotes its attention to.

Rigid adherence to Hierarchy (and Discipline by extension) is itself often a very fatal flaw in a combat environment, just ask the Japanese about that in WW2. Or the Germans in WW2 when it came to fighting the Americans(who were often very notorious for neither following the combat action plan "as written," nor following their own manuals for how they were supposed to approach an objective)

Russia's army has a strict hierarchy, no NCO corps to speak of, and poor training among a list of other failings. China is trying to develop an NCO corps, and it will be "interesting" to see how well they perform in the field should a full-on conflict happen with a near-peer for them. As I doubt the unit's resident Communist Party Political Officers are going to be quite so accommodating where "taking the initiative" is concerned on the part of the NCOs. (Which bring us back to "Discipline can be a hindrance")

[Grant]

This is getting exhausting and I still have another week til I get home. 

So it looks like the Russian retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro is for real.  Which all of a sudden puzzles everybody, asking "if it were real, why would they actually announce their vulnerable retreat on television?".  I don't know.  I admit it doesn't make any sense but has anything the Russians done made sense?  A year ago they were a premier world/military power.  Now they are somewhere between the Keystone Cops and Beetle Bailey. 

The Ukrainians are taking full advantage.  They've let loose with their artillery and are supposedly smashing the troops massed trying to cross.  If this is for real, and if Ukraine can press their advantage, it's another possibly big moment.  I mean, it was going to be a big moment anyways, taking back that much territory, but there are people saying there are going to be 10-20,000 Russian troops trying to get over the Dnipro.  There are reports of panic.  I don't know how true any of it is.  I've been disappointed before.  Things particularly don't move as fast as I like them to.  But it is within the realm of possibility and I havn't seen anything too outlandish yet (Ghost of Kyiv with 60 kills outlandish). 

There are all kinds of rumors of the Biden admin refusing to allow the Ukrainians to have some more advanced systems.  Fear of escalation again.  I hope this isn't true but it seems to be.  I mean, what are they still worried about?  They've already bluffed time and time again.  They know they're losing.  Their only prayer now is time and pressure from the US and NATO on Ukraine.  If they were going to nuke Ukraine they would have done it already.  I've already expressed my feelings in other threads that my support of the Biden admin depends entirely on how much support Ukraine is getting.  I personally believe the time is right to start giving the Ukrainians American tanks and IFVs.  Train Ukrainian pilots on F-15s and F-16s.  Or just enter the *censored*ing war and end it.  This slow bleeding out isn't my jam. 

The longer this *censored* goes on the longer Russia is weakened the worse things are for a certain degree of balance.  The way things are going, you know how we will know the war is over?  When China invades and takes Siberia.  Why settle for a tiny island when Pooh can go down in history as the greatest Chinese conqueror since Emperor Wu.  Taking western Siberia then puts China in the driver's seat when it comes to gas exports to eastern Europe.   

[Grant]

The city of Kherson has been retaken.  All the territory on the right bank of the Dnipro.  The Russians are stacked up at the crossing getting hammered by artillery.  I don't know how bad. 

Ukrainians are ecstatic.  Big victory for them.  They are throwing around the word "route", though I don't know if it is appropriate.  If it was a route the Ukrainians should be throwing their tanks forward and running down the Russians.  Instead it seems they just keep hammering them with artillery. 

The battle is still ongoing.  This has a potential to be another massive victory.  Russian bloggers are crapping themselves.  The Kremlin has distanced themselves from the decision.  So far it's just a victory, not massive.  But as I said, it's ongoing.  If the Russians are able to blow the bridges and maintain a defensive line, the Dnipro will anchor a good defensive line for whatever the Russians have left.  Unless the Russians are wiped out in "a route", then they should be able to maintain a defense given the width and length of the Dnipro.  (This said, the Russians never seem to be able to do what they should be able to do). 

What is next?  Consolidation probably.  For a while at least.  (Of course, the Russians never do what they should, maybe they keep trying to attack Bakhmut).  Some people want to use a consolidation period to restart talks.  The Ukrainians still are not interested with what the Russians are offering.  Looking at the map, there are two main options.  The first is to recommit to the offensive in the north.  Finish driving the Russians out of northern Luhansk Oblast and turn the flank against the Donets front.  The drawback to this is that it would leave the Ukrainian rear vulnerable to an attack from Russian territory, which the Ukrainians are not supposed to invade. 

The other option is a thrust south from Zaporizhia to take Melitopol.  Cut off the test of Kherson Oblast from ground supply from Russia.  Then turn west to finish taking the rest of Kherson Oblast.  Then Crimea is cut off except by ferry and some truck re-supply from the Kerch Bridge.  This seems to be the Ukrainian way of war.  The drawback to this is that it would create a salient that could be attack from both sides by the Russians in Kherson Oblast and Donets Oblast.  There is supposedly a lot of Ukrainian guerilla activity in Melitipol, so it may be easy to accomplish.  But if the Russians decide to defend Melitipol heavily, it could end up a trap for the Ukrainians.  Trying to siege a city while surrounded by Russians in Kherson Oblast and Donets. 

I don't expect the Ukrainians to rest for long.  Time is back on Russia's side.  The shortening of their line and pulling  back across the Dnipro gives them more time until they can better train and equip the half of their conscripts they havn't thrown to the wolves of Ukraine.  Pressure needs to increase.  Ukraine should be getting trained on American and NATO heavy tanks and fighter planes.  They would be ready to receive and deploy in the spring.  Knowing this will increase pressure on Russia to pull out without destroying their army.  The way to peace is simple.  The Russians go back to Russia, and stay there. 

[Grant]

Some Russian missiles apparently missed Ukraine and hit Poland, killing like 2 people.  Polish Prime Minister, Moraweieskckkiekkikiskicki, has called for an urgent meeting of the national security committee. 

I think Poland has been praying for an excuse to get into the war since September.  Anything to get off the NATO leash.  I don't know if they will try and Article 5 over this.  Seems crazy.  But Poland has the most to gain from a quick Russian defeat.  I mean, Germany does too, but I don't think they want it.  Like the Pope doesn't want a lap dance for his birthday. 

The Russians keep falling  back on using their cruise missiles every time they get embarrassed on the ground.  They focus their attacks on power infrastructure, sans the nuclear plants. 

These tactics make no sense.  It would have made perfect sense to knock out the Ukrainians power and communications at the start of the war, but they didn't do that.  They held on to their missiles in case of whatever.  Now it's just a kind of pathetic revenge.  They won't even hit airfields and logistics points anymore.  The entire Russian war effort has been crap. 

[yossarian22c]

...
These tactics make no sense.  It would have made perfect sense to knock out the Ukrainians power and communications at the start of the war, but they didn't do that.  They held on to their missiles in case of whatever.  Now it's just a kind of pathetic revenge.  They won't even hit airfields and logistics points anymore.  The entire Russian war effort has been crap.

I think early in the war they were hoping to walk into the country and take it whole without a lot of damage they would have to rebuild. Now they're just destroying stuff because they can. Hitting the civilian stuff because the military stuff is better defended.

[rightleft22]

These tactics make no sense.  It would have made perfect sense to knock out the Ukrainians power and communications at the start of the war, but they didn't do that.  They held on to their missiles in case of whatever.  Now it's just a kind of pathetic revenge.  They won't even hit airfields and logistics points anymore.  The entire Russian war effort has been crap.

If the expectation was a quick win I can understand why they didn't go all in on destroying the infrastructure at the start. Now it appears "strategy" is as you say pathetic revenge. History hasn't been kind to such strategy and I wonder about the impact to the Russian people will be once the realty of what they have done comes to be known. I know such reality can be manipulated but  I still believe that eventually people Know even if they rather pretend not to know   

[Grant]

Some Russian missiles apparently missed Ukraine and hit Poland, killing like 2 people. 

Just to keep everbuddy up to date: 

Got some pictures of the missile wreckage from the interwebs.  Probably from Poles. 

The smart peoples are saying it doesn't look like a cruise missile.  They're saying it looks like a missile from an S-300 system. 

Sooooooo.  The missile might actually not be Russian, but Ukrainian.  Fired in an attempt to take down a Russian cruise missile but either went off course or exploded on the wrong side of the border. 

This of course is unconfirmed.  By anybody.  But of course it's hard to confirm when the "officials" have already publicly stated, to the press of course, that the missile was Russian.  So the people that would confirm have would have been the people who *censored*ed up, depending on what the "official" was.  Like, the press could probably call a Pentagon janitor a "defense official, but I doubt that is what happened". 

Normally this is where I come down on the side of the officials and experts, but the REAL experts, the OSINT nerds, are saying it's not a cruise missile.

I think some people jumped the gun here.  It happens but it should not.  Everybody needs to tighten up. Particularly "officials".  Particularly "officials" close to the ground.  The Ukrainians are hyper enough.  I imagine the Poles are just as jacked to the tits.  Everyone reporting on this *censored*ing war needs a prescription for some THC. 

[Grant]

This of course is unconfirmed.  By anybody.  But of course it's hard to confirm when the "officials" have already publicly stated, to the press of course, that the missile was Russian.  So the people that would confirm have would have been the people who *censored*ed up, depending on what the "official" was.  Like, the press could probably call a Pentagon janitor a "defense official, but I doubt that is what happened". 

So the officials have come clean.  Polish President and US "officials".  This is good.  Don't need a Tonkin Incident where you're itching for a reason to fight and then jump in on a mistake.  It would have fueled the conspiracy theorists for 200 years.

Hopefully some people learned a lesson, but from what I can tell, all the people wanting to mash the Article 5 button yesterday really havn't admitted that they jumped the gun.  Their excuse is that it doesn't matter who fired the missile.  Of course it matters who fires the missile.  Especially IF YOU SAY RUSSIA FIRED THE MISSILE.  Too many people can't accept responsibility and recognize and admit when they made a mistake.  It's the underlying epidemic that is screwing up the world.  I want to punch CPT Nathan Brittles in the nuts.  And I like CPT Brittles. 

[TheDrake]

I'm confused, Grant. I thought you wanted NATO to go all in. Thought you would welcome a Tonkin style fig leaf to generate hundreds of sorties from Poland and other allied countries.

[rightleft22]

Surprisingly not all news agencies jumped the gun. There was some proper reporting of the event as a event being investigated

[Grant]

I'm confused, Grant. I thought you wanted NATO to go all in.

I do. 

Thought you would welcome a Tonkin style fig leaf to generate hundreds of sorties from Poland and other allied countries.

If you don't understand I can't explain it to you.  I strongly suspect that you think people like me don't exist and cannot fathom how we think. 

[Grant]

Surprisingly not all news agencies jumped the gun. There was some proper reporting of the event as a event being investigated

The problem is that news agencies have become the slowest member of the news herd, often because they are actually checking things.  Meanwhile, a hundred tiny rabid rabbits are running ahead of the elephants on the interwebs.  All of them with hair triggers, and apparently are being read by the mouthpieces in government. 

[TheDrake]

I'm confused, Grant. I thought you wanted NATO to go all in.

I do. 

Thought you would welcome a Tonkin style fig leaf to generate hundreds of sorties from Poland and other allied countries.

If you don't understand I can't explain it to you.  I strongly suspect that you think people like me don't exist and cannot fathom how we think.

You do realize that they would need an excuse to escalate, right? You don't think they can just decide to start shooting down Russian planes or bombing their troops? Kudos to your honor that you won't throw in with manufactured excuses.

[TheDrake]

Russian seems ready to claim the idiom "Paper Bear". They can't defend their airbases from what appear to be Ukranian drone strikes (don't want to jump to conclusions). Now, I understand this doesn't mean that Russia has lost air superiority over Moscow, but coupled with the fact that Russia cannot or does not fly missions over Ukraine really makes you wonder how vulnerable they are. It's one thing to mess up with your deployed troops, but to not defend strategic military locations astounds me. Either these are some hella advanced drones, or Russian air defense is a messy antique.

[cherrypoptart]

They attacked partly because they didn't want to appear weak. Now they look weak. Hoisted by their own petard.

[Grant]

They attacked partly because they didn't want to appear weak. Now they look weak. Hoisted by their own petard.

I don't think they understood they were weak.  I think they still havn't come to terms with their own collapse.  There was nothing wrong with them "on paper".  They had the numbers, the equipment.  Their people sucked.  The corruption and ineptitude in their Army officer corps and defense ministry and industry was something difficult to put a finger on unless you really knew what was going on inside the VSSF.  They also didn't understand what they were getting into in Ukraine. 

But why should they have?  The calculations were mostly political and were based on plenty of successful moves like this in the past.  Crimea 2014.  Georgia 2008.  Syria 2015. Arming the Taliban. They walked in and Pooter did what he want and got what he wanted.  NATO and the US did nothing.  They were constant wins.  They didn't NEED a competent officer corps.  Their adversaries handed them their victories. 

Russian seems ready to claim the idiom "Paper Bear".

Ahhh but they still have the largest stockpile of nuclear vepons.  We're just lucky that it was just the Ukrainians who decided to attack Russian soil and not say, a NATO country like Finland or Luxembourg.  The Russians would have retaliated with a nuclear strike on Clervaux.  I've been assured of this since March.  A single Russian soldier being killed by a single NATO soldier, or any attack on Russian soil, will cause World War 3(TM).  It is written.  If the United States dared to attack Russia, nukes would be falling on 6th St tonight. 

this doesn't mean that Russia has lost air superiority over Moscow

Russia lost superiority over Moscow since 1987, when a Cessna successfully penetrated Soviet airspace and landed in Red Square. 

Russia cannot or does not fly missions over Ukraine really makes you wonder how vulnerable they are

The VKS has been flying plenty of missions over Ukraine.  That's why they have lost so many of their Su-25s, Su-34s, and Su-30s.  They have lost a total of 63 aircraft.  Almost all of them strike aircraft.  Most of them probably by SAMs.  You can of course now add two strategic bombers.  And 73 helicopters.  Important to note that many of those helicopters were destroyed by Ukrainian artillery strikes.

[rightleft22]

Perhaps a inherent issue with the political system such as the one that implemented by Putin is that everyone is expected to lie and do. The blind spot being is that they keep forgetting that they are
seeing reality as they are not as it is. They forgot and believe thier own lies so their military could and would take out Ukraine in 10 days and their appears to have been no plan B.

Putin has been so skilled at creating 'reality' for his people that everyone "believed" even though they also knew he was lying. Its equivalent to a political Ponzi scheme, eventually its got to fall down.

It similar to what Trump was and is trying to do only he's not as skilled at it as Putin

[TheDrake]

Can't quickly put my finger on a current source, but my understanding was that Russia mostly fired from outside Ukrainian air space. They can still potentially get shot down there, and I'm sure it's not a self imposed hard no fly zone. They are also able to fly over the parts of Ukraine that they control. My initial statement was based on several US retired generals making statements similar to mine.

[rightleft22]

"There's a lot of noise about our strikes on the energy infrastructure of a neighbouring country. Yes, we do that. But who started it?" he said to recipients of state awards, including the "Hero of Russia" medal.

Always fun when the bully who starts the fight claims to be the victim of the fight.

[Grant]

Always fun when the bully who starts the fight claims to be the victim of the fight.

Knocking out an enemy's power grid is a good tactic, when it serves a purpose.  It's usually done at the beginning of an offensive, to help knock out communications and control systems.  Russia doing it now, when there is no general offensive being conducted, only a local one around Bakhmut, with the only purpose to increase suffering of a civilian population, is pretty close to a war crime.  But let the Russians keep shooting their million dollar super cruise missiles at power stations.  Every one they waste like that is another one they don't shoot at a real command or control center, an airfield, or a logistics center full of fuel or ammo or new weaponry being transported from Poland.  The power grid has been repaired and will continue to be repaired.  The Ukrainians are prepared for the most part. It's not like this is a surprise.  So let the Russians keep wasting their missiles. 

[Fenring]

Russia doing it now, when there is no general offensive being conducted, only a local one around Bakhmut, with the only purpose to increase suffering of a civilian population, is pretty close to a war crime.

Man, if they don't stop what they're doing they might actual be guilty of a war crime? They'd better watch out!

[Grant]

Man, if they don't stop what they're doing they might actual be guilty of a war crime? They'd better watch out!

I'm not sure what your point is. 

I believe that several Russians are already guilty of war crimes, when it comes to deliberate targeting of things like apartment complexes and hospitals with their missiles.  Throw in the executions of civilians some of them have perpetrated in Bucha and Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts.  Just about everywhere.  The looting.  Hitting the power grid is the least outrageous thing on the list. 

The whole "war crimes" thing doesn't mean much unless your government and military actually care about war crimes, justice, and their reputation, or you are going to go out and catch the guys who did it.  Given that Russia will most likely not be prosecuting their leaders and soldiers for war crimes (many of the soldiers and officers from Bucha are already dead, the Ukrainians have been keeping receipts), and it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will have in their hands any criminals guilty of missile targeting since they are all in Moscow, the whole war crimes thing will probably not go anywhere.  There are probably a number of Ukrainians guilty of war crimes as well when it comes to Russian prisoners.  I don't know how they will be dealt with. 

The general solutions to the horrors of war is to prevent them from happening or end them quickly.  NATO and the United States do not seem to be interested in ending the war, only preventing Ukraine from losing. 

[msquared]

I think Fenring was being sarcastic.

[Grant]

I think Fenring was being sarcastic.

Yes, but what is the target of the sarcasm?  Why is it sarcastic?  Because the Russians are already guilty of all kinds of war crimes, or because the whole idea of war crimes is limited because of the inability to enforce outside of total victory or a moral actor within the country whose people are guilty?  There are so many ways this could be sarcastic. 

[Fenring]

You were saying that attacking power systems might even be a war crime, in context of the Russians having already committed many worse war crimes. Next thing they'll be tearing tags off of mattresses, and then real war will break out.

[Wayward Son]

Meanwhile, Republicans are turning their backs on Ukraine. 

[rightleft22]

Meanwhile, Republicans are turning their backs on Ukraine. 

I don't understand what is motivating the GOP anymore.

[msquared]

Whatever Putin wants. I mean it is the Trumpist that are opposing the support and we all know how friendly Trump was with Putin.