Author Topic: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?  (Read 983 times)

msquared

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So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« on: August 17, 2022, 03:25:29 PM »
Make your predictions now.

I say at least 53-47 Dem/Rep.  Maybe 54/46.

I think they keep GA and move PA (Oz is a joke there).  It looks like they may pick up OH and WI as well.

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2022, 03:40:57 PM »
I think a 51-49 Dem majority. I think they hold Georgia and pick off Penn. I think everyone else holds the rest. Next most likely is I think 50-50 again with winning in Penn but losing Nevada or Georgia. 52-48 is a great night for the dems. 54/46 is everything going right: economy continuing to improve through election day, Trump going down in flames in the next couple months, no more international disasters, and maybe a surprise Ukrainian breakthrough in the Donbass.

The fact Walker is close to Warnock in Georgia is sick. The man is mentally ill. He clearly has CTE from his years of playing football. Tribalism at its worst.

Tom

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2022, 04:18:45 PM »
Ron Johnson is weak in WI. We can beat him, but only with substantial financial support; he's got the backing of a couple local billionaires who actually are what William seems to think Soros is.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2022, 04:24:48 PM »
Do you mean the Koch Brothers?  Didn't one of them die?

Mynnion

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2022, 06:18:12 PM »
Quote
Ron Johnson is weak in WI. We can beat him, but only with substantial financial support; he's got the backing of a couple local billionaires who actually are what William seems to think Soros is.

No one I know will be voting for him but Madison tends to vote Democrat.

Tom

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2022, 07:04:20 PM »
No, I don't mean the Koch brothers. I mean Diane Henricks and Dick Uihlein.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2022, 08:42:58 PM »
Johnson seems behind in WI right now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/barnes-tops-johnson-7-points-191415595.html

So that would seem to be at least 2 R seats going D.

It seems that since Senators are state wide elections, Republicans are not able to gerrymander their way to victory there.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2022, 05:54:43 PM »
Well since the RNSC stopped putting money after Trump supported Dr Oz, he is falling even further behind.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/john-fetterman-holds-13-point-200523864.html

Now 13 points behind Fetterman.  Just listen to Trump whine that McConnel is not supporting Trump's candidate.  This falls squarely on Trump. Trump cost the Republicans the Senate due to the GA runoff 2 years ago and now Trump is going to hand the Dems 2-4 more seats.

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2022, 09:20:09 AM »
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Things looking slightly better for Dems. Wisconsin is a toss up. Somehow Georgia still is. Guess Walker's handler's are keeping him away from the public. NC and Nevada are both better than a couple weeks ago for the Democrats. Oz is sinking quickly in Pennsylvania. But Vance looks to be holding on in Ohio.

Seriously Georgia, Walker clearly has CTE and is completely erratic. How is that race close? Guess MTG's district clearly doesn't care how crazy the person is as long as they have the R next to their name. But the whole state?

Grant

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2022, 06:00:07 PM »
Too much open field between now and November.  Too much that can effect things and no telling how it does. 

What happens with MaLgate?  Incitement?  Arrest?  Nothing?  How will it effect votes?  Will it help Republicans or Democrats?  There is no telling. 

Who opens his mouth the most in the next two months?  Uncle Joe?  The President who Lived (to wave his magical declassification wand)? 

My experience seems to be that whomever talks the most will lose the most votes.  I think a dog would have the best chance of winning the election in Georgia. 

If I had to go with numbers, right now I would go with 51-49 Dems.  But this is a close run thing.  Could be easily 52-48 Dems.  Could be even worse for Rs if McMullin wins in Utah and doesn't caucus with the Republicans. 

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2022, 10:30:26 AM »
Walker is still close in Georgia. OMG Republicans WTF??? Is the Republican party seeing how bad a candidate they can put out and still see if they can get votes?

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2022, 10:32:45 AM »
Why not? They did it with the President and won.

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2022, 03:43:08 PM »
Just bumping this thread so we can all see how we did tomorrow or later. Georgia could be a run off. Pennsylvania will be slow because of their mail ballot counting rules. Polls definitely were going badly for dems.

538's most likely outcomes listed by highest likelyhood.
17.7% 51R 49D
16.3% 52R 48D
15.3% 50R 50D
12.7% 53R 47D
11.7% 49R 51D
7.7%  54R 36D
7.5% 48R 52D
4%   47R 53D
Others are all 2% or less.

The closest 5 races are all basically toss ups. If the polls were off slightly one way or the other either party could sweep all 5 of those. Democrats need them all. The next 3 races were there a reasonable chance of either outcome all favor Republicans significantly (Wi, NC, Ohio). I'm still hoping that Warnock and Fetterman pull off their races against some horrible Republican candidates and the senate stays 50/50. But barring a reverse of the 2016 election predictions not a good looking night for the Democrats.

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2022, 03:44:44 PM »
Democrats seem to have held everywhere except Nevada which is still to close to call. Kelly isn't certain in Arizona yet but has a nice lead. I'm penciling in Warnock in Georgia. If Walker couldn't ride Kemp's coattails to win, its unlikely voters are going to show up in enough numbers for him in December. Looks like Democrats are going to break even or be +1 in the Senate. That will be good for Biden to be able to continue appointing officials and judges. Crossing my fingers they eliminate the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. I really don't want another two years of economic brinkmanship. 

Grant

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2022, 04:17:52 PM »
I'm penciling in Warnock in Georgia. If Walker couldn't ride Kemp's coattails to win, its unlikely voters are going to show up in enough numbers for him in December.

I would not underestimate Georgia.  The race in Georgia is going to go to a runoff and the tenser it is the more the GOP will rally around Walker, despite however many flaws he might have.  Before, he was one among many.  Now he will be presented as the "last bastion".  I recall keenly how much the GOP rallied around Loeffler in the runoff in 2020.  It's true she still lost, but there were other factors. 

Georgia may be the Kobayashi Maru of the Declassifier's campaign.  If he attempts to re-assert himself as a GOP powerhouse, he will most likely cause Walker to lose.  If he stays away to give Walker a better chance, if Walker were to actually win he would be seen as a non-entity because he didn't help.  Same as if he stayed away and Walker lost.  Georgia is L'Orange's Waterloo.  Georgia plus Pennsylvania and Arizona.  He can't win there apparently. 

Wayward Son

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2022, 04:26:24 PM »
If AZ and NV go Democrat, then they got their 50 and stay in control.  GA won't be nearly as important then, since it would only determine if Joe Manchin keeps his power. :)

But if NV goes Republican, expect a lot of money to go into the GA runoff.  Electoral-vote.com mentioned perhaps a billion dollars between the two sides. Because (again!) it would all come down to GA.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2022, 09:36:07 PM »
Well it looks like the Senate will be at least 50/50 with the possibility of a 51/49 split depending on GA.


msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2022, 10:37:30 AM »
So Murkowski has pulled ahead in Alaska but will not win outright. She is almost 100% sure to win when they get to the ranked choice voting part of their counting later this week. So one more for the Republicans but another loss for Trump

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2022, 03:28:18 PM »
Can Walker in GA really run, since his taxes claim he lives in TX? So either he lied to the people of GA or he lied to the Gov of Texas and committed tax fraud.  Seems like a Trump person to me.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2022, 09:29:50 AM »
So Trump is listening to his advisors, and others, and staying away from GA for the run off.

TheDrake

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #20 on: November 29, 2022, 03:07:05 PM »
Republicans are already bent out of shape because college students were able to vote Saturday after Thanksgiving.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #21 on: November 29, 2022, 07:22:29 PM »
Sure seems like Walker is not a Georgian. Wonder why people would vote for a Texan to represent GA.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/georgia-senate-hopeful-herschel-walker-163656101.html


msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2022, 09:11:21 AM »