Author Topic: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations  (Read 439 times)

LetterRip

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US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« on: December 21, 2022, 01:17:51 PM »
I really hate when unrelated stats are lumped into one, so that people assume the one that people are concerned about is absurdly frequent.

The above sentence is completely true, average annual traffic citations is 41 million in the US.  Average annual number of murders in the US though is about 21,000; or 5 per 100,000 people.

The reason this came up is the twitter reporting on how many CASM and 'non consensual nudity images' they remove each month.  Like the murders and traffic citations above, the relative proportion of the two is going to be enormously skewed.  People posting nudes of their current or ex girlfriends/boyfriends/spouses and other people reposting those images is going to overwhelmingly make up those images.  Yet, as expected, people repeatedly report it as all CASM images.

https://twitter.com/DDumpsterfire/status/1605390064082554881

Wayward Son

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2022, 02:27:35 PM »
I hate to seem dense, but which meaning of CASM are you using?  I've found a half-dozen of acronyms of CASM so far, but none seems to apply to your post.

Mynnion

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2022, 02:31:37 PM »
It reminds me of those promoting gun control who list the number of deaths by gun and fail to indicate that many are suicides. Not that they should not be tracked but they do not present a fair representation of violence against others.  By lumping them together without stating the suicides those who oppose gun control point to the deceptive numbers and ignore the fact that there are still a large number of guns used in violent crimes.  Basically by trying to make the numbers look big the reason for citing the stats to begin with gets lost in the noise.

LetterRip

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2022, 05:18:00 PM »
I hate to seem dense, but which meaning of CASM are you using?  I've found a half-dozen of acronyms of CASM so far, but none seems to apply to your post.

Child Abuse Sexual Material.

Wayward Son

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2022, 05:29:24 PM »
Thanks.  I had a feeling it wasn't Cost per Available Seat Mile, Certified Agile Service Manager, or Center for Assistance with Statistics and Mathematics.  ;D

TheDrake

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2022, 04:36:03 PM »
I think pooling depends on what you're using the data for. Every sex crime is not equal. But it is still useful to look at the total. Murders and suicides are different, but if you're goal is to make sure fewer people wind up dead by putting red flag laws in place, I don't think that is illegitimate. If you use that number and then roll right into violent crime examples, that is not legitimate. I don't know enough about the use of the op stat to determine if it is legitimate or not.

TheDeamon

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2023, 09:38:02 AM »
I think pooling depends on what you're using the data for. Every sex crime is not equal. But it is still useful to look at the total. Murders and suicides are different, but if you're goal is to make sure fewer people wind up dead by putting red flag laws in place, I don't think that is illegitimate. If you use that number and then roll right into violent crime examples, that is not legitimate. I don't know enough about the use of the op stat to determine if it is legitimate or not.

The "trick" there is that all suicide completions are by definition Homicides, as a human was killed. Likewise, people killed as a result of a violent crime (against others) also is a homicide. Many of the gun control advocacy groups are pretty transparent about the bait and switch if you look at how they report the statistic: As they're normally talking about "gun homicides" which expressly allows for the inclusion of suicides--it'd be inaccurate to specifically talk about "gun homicides" and not include the suicides.

The Problem is people defaulting to viewing "homicide" to mean murder or violent crimes, not suicides.

NobleHunter

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2023, 02:05:54 PM »
The gun control debate is screwy because it's driven by the statistical outliers of mass shootings that attract significant media coverage. Yet the vast majority of injuries and deaths are caused by the first and only shot fired during an incident. Most of the arguments are about magazine size and firearm style, which won't stop that first shot.

Wayward Son

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2023, 03:05:44 PM »
I wouldn't say that the gun control debate is "driven" by mass shootings.  It's moved to focus on mass shootings because they have become so common recently.  And mass shootings feel more dangerous because they are not associated with any particular behavior or action of the victim.

There was an energetic gun control debate before mass shooting began happening every single day.  And it will move back to reducing the number of individual deaths once we've reduced the number of mass shootings. Or, should I say, if. :(

TheDrake

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2023, 11:32:31 AM »
When gun control advocates want to reduce deaths involving forms it isn't helpful to make distinctions. Murder, adult with a deadly weapon, suicide, negligent discharge, theatrical mistakes. All can be reduced with various measures. And all gun advocates don't make distinctions either. They try to bar doctors from describing the danger of having unsecured forms that their children can access. That's homicide, whether they shoot up a school, or if they accidentally shot their best friend joking around yelling "pew pew".

wmLambert

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2023, 01:28:07 PM »
Gun stats have always been skewed for whoever wanted to endorse a position. Incident reports in many mass shootings don't even show how a Concealed carry civilian was able to distract a mass shooter allowing the police to flank the perp and then kill him. Sometimes the civilian is not even mentioned because of the grief that can come down for the act of heroism.

What atats are there for all the shootings done in gun-free zones because the perps think the victims are defenseless?

wmLambert

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2023, 02:12:40 PM »
There is an entire culture of gun-violence research. Rand and CDC are quite visible in that community. John Lott has over 200 articles on the subject - but because his findings are generally supportive of gun ownership, he is a target of politically-inspired gun control groups who claim his research is "faulty." It is hard to look at the thousands of investigative research reports without seeing the politics behind it all.

Basically there are three categories of gun laws. Those that enforce child-protection schemes - like locked gun cases and gun security are considered positive. The others, behavioral science, and gun ownership are negative and are said to cause more problems.

Even then, the big researchers, like Rand and the CDC, avoid practical answers.

The two solutions tend to be elimination of gun-free zones and positive attitudes for gun ownership and training. Please remember the "unwild West" was miscast as lawless - but was very safe because everyone had firearms to defend against the animals and snakes they needed protection from. Kids were trained early and there were few misadventures.

NobleHunter

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2023, 02:15:58 PM »
I like how you neatly elide the fact that the West also had gun control.

Wayward Son

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2023, 04:18:23 PM »
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John Lott has over 200 articles on the subject - but because his findings are generally supportive of gun ownership, he is a target of politically-inspired gun control groups who claim his research is "faulty."

Why do you say that?  Are you repeating what you've heard, or have you looked into it yourself?

What do you think of the criticisms of his claim that "If national surveys are correct, 98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack?"  Do you think his surveys were large enough to justify that claim?

TheDrake

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2023, 10:44:41 AM »
Interesting that wm cited CDC research, when they haven't been able to research it for the past 25 years.

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Congress quashed funding for C.D.C. gun violence research 25 years ago. But an extraordinary friendship between an agency scientist and the “point man” for the N.R.A. helped bring the money back.

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“It’s not either, ‘Keep your guns or prevent gun violence,’ ” said Dr. Mark Rosenberg, who helped establish the C.D.C.’s National Center for Injury Prevention and Control but said he was fired in the late 1990s under pressure from Republicans who opposed the center’s gun research. “There’s a strategy that science can help us define where you can do both — you can protect the rights of law-abiding gun owners and at the very same time reduce the toll of gun violence.”

Republicans do their best to make sure there ARE no gun statistics.

Why is this? Because it is obvious to everyone that more guns doesn't equal more safety. Australia. Everyone in the gun debate KNOWS about Australia, because it is such a stark example of the efficacy of gun control.

Firearms research summaries

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The NFA also seems to have reduced firearm homicide outside of mass shootings, as well as firearm suicide. In the seven years before the NFA (1989-1995), the average annual firearm suicide death rate per 100,000 was 2.6 (with a yearly range of 2.2 to 2.9); in the seven years after the buyback was fully implemented (1998-2004), the average annual firearm suicide rate was 1.1 (yearly range 0.8 to 1.4).  In the seven years before the NFA, the average annual firearm homicide rate per 100,000 was .43 (range .27 to .60) while for the seven years post NFA, the average annual firearm homicide rate was .25 (range .16 to .33). 3

Interestingly, this summary differentiates homicides from suicides. In a very easy to understand methodology, the results are clear though there is debate on how much the law and buyback contributed, since the general trend was downward.

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The authors (Australian gun lobby members) of one study 5claimed that “the policy has made no difference.  There was a trend of declining deaths which has continued”. 6   They made an assumption that the historical downward trend in firearm deaths would have continued unabated, and chose 1979 as the beginning year for the trend analysis, although data were available for each year back to 1915.  The Australian firearm suicide rate in 1979 was higher than any other year from 1932-1996; the firearm homicide rate in 1979 was the third highest it had been during this same time frame.  Identical analyses using data from 1915-2004 found that both firearm suicide and firearm homicide declined significantly after the NFA.

Well look at all the fallacies and manipulations here. Cherry-picking your date range. But it gets worse.

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The researchers also assumed that without the NFA, a linear trend of the actual death rate 1979-1996 would have continued forever.  In other words, they assumed that if the historical rate fell from 3/100,000 to 2/100,000 in the initial period, it would fall to 1/100,000 in next period, then to 0/100,000, and then to -1/100,000.  According to their assumption, without the NFA there would have been an ever-increasing percentage fall in firearm death.  Indeed their model predicted that without the NFA, the number of firearm homicides in Australia would be negative by 2015.  Critics labeled this a “Resurrection Problem”.

If the natural result of your equations requires raising people from the dead, that's kind of an issue. Now stipulated, this isn't a model for the US and we would be unlikely to replicate their success. But it demonstrates there is manipulation going on - by the people trying to discredit the ban, and even THEY can't prove that deaths increased the way US gun control advocates assert that they MUST.

wmLambert

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2023, 10:03:10 PM »
Gun-free zones:

The Crime Prevention Research Center recently finished updating a list of mass public shootings worldwide.

The U.S. makes up 1.49 percent of the killings worldwide, 2.20 percent of the attacks, and less than 1.15 percent of the mass public shooters. All these are much less than America’s 4.6 percent share of the world population.

The U.S. ranks 64th per capita in its rate of attacks and 65th in fatalities. Major European countries, such as Norway, Finland, France, Switzerland, and Russia, all have at least 25 percent higher per capita murder rates from mass public shootings.

98 percent of mass public shootings since 1950 have occurred in places where citizens are banned from having guns.

The national media tend to ignore case after case of mass public shootings being stopped by armed private citizens.

wmLambert

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2023, 10:24:13 PM »
Interesting that Wm cited CDC research, when they haven't been able to research it for the past 25 years...

Interesting that the research is still there and the quantity dwarfs others.

The other thing to notice is that the Wild West numbers cited in some of your links talk about five or six murders in towns of less than 5,000 being high - but neglect the fact that those towns, like Tombstone and Dodge City that had notorious shoot-outs were gun-free zones. Kids and families all had guns to protect themselves and were remarkably proficient in usage and training. Gun safety was a fact.

Wayward Son

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #17 on: January 23, 2023, 12:26:49 PM »
Funny you should mention Tombstone, since the famous Shootout at the O.K. Corral was caused by the Claytons refusing to obey the local gun control laws.  :)

I guess them old west sheriffs knew how to enforce gun control back in the day.  ;D

TheDrake

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2023, 01:53:51 PM »
Well, for starters they were Clantons, not Claytons.

The second is that the Earps had a criminal history and are exactly the kind of government people envisioned by the 2nd amendment as tyrants.
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By 1870, Earp got his first job in law enforcement, as town constable in Lamar, Missouri, where his family had relocated. He left the job in 1871, having been accused of mishandling public funds. That same year, he was arrested for stealing horses in Indian Territory (present-day Oklahoma), although his case never went to trial. In 1872, Earp was living in Peoria, Illinois, working as an enforcer in a brothel

Not the kind of guy I'd want to be disarmed by in that day and age with no higher authority to appeal to.

Wayward Son

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Re: US has annually over 41 million murders and traffic citations
« Reply #19 on: January 23, 2023, 02:02:20 PM »
Maybe not.  OTOH, it didn't do them much good to keep their arms, did it? ;)