Author Topic: 2024  (Read 1562 times)

Mynnion

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2024
« on: December 13, 2022, 12:35:42 PM »
Since we have finished the 2022 election cycle it is time  to start thinking about 2024.  Who do you think will run in the primaries for both parties?

GOP

Trump - if he has not been convicted of a crime that prevents him running.  I am not convinced that the powers that be will not sacrifice him now that he seems to be losing his broad appeal.

De Santis - If he doesn't do anything stupid I see him as the GOP front runner but a lot can change.

MIsc. MAGA replacement like MTG, Lake, or Gaetz.

Romney - If the party wants to move back towards stability.

DEMS

Biden - He has signaled that he will run but unless things change drastically with the economy or Trump runs or acts as a spoiler he is a weak choice.

Bernie - Pretty darn old but still popular.  Might be able to squeak out a primary challenge against Biden.

Harris - if Biden doesn't run.  I doubt she can win the primary.

Abrams - She might be able to pull it off.

Warren - Another old timer who might try one more time.

I am sure I am missing some but those are the ones that immediately come to mind.


msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2022, 12:51:19 PM »
I might add Cheney to the GOP list as well as Hogan. The problem there is the more people running in the primary the better chance Trump has of winning. The black jelly bean conundrum.

Fenring

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Re: 2024
« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2022, 03:27:13 PM »
What I don't get is why the parties don't court a celebrity outsider to run. I know why, because they want a Party Man (or woman) who will do their bidding and not oppose the special interests. But seriously, if a popular celebrity ran they would run popularity circles around the above listed people. Remember in Back to the Future, when Doc is shocked that Reagan is President, but then reconsiders and realizes it makes perfect sense to have an actor in the White House in the era of TV? Well I guess that fizzled out, other than the Governator. Could you imagine how much of a landslide it would be if someone like Keannu Reeves (aside from the fact that he's Canadian) ran, and presented intelligently and thoughtfully? I really wonder why they don't approach some of these people and try to court them into becoming political, as front men for the party who will put a different type of voice into politics.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2022, 03:31:28 PM »
Matthew McConaughey is someone like that.

NobleHunter

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Re: 2024
« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2022, 03:35:48 PM »
One, that's exactly what Trump did.

Two, it would require insiders to give up their possible only shot at winning the whole game.

Three, being President is not an unskilled job. Being good at being popular and even winning elections aren't the same thing as being good at being President. You do need someone who can do more than warm a chair in the role.

Fenring

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Re: 2024
« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2022, 04:20:00 PM »
One, that's exactly what Trump did.

Sort of, he was in a parallel department to acting, let's call it showmanship. That's not not what I was talking about, but I meant someone charismatic who could play a president in a movie, except do it in real life.

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Two, it would require insiders to give up their possible only shot at winning the whole game.

Yes, that was the rationale behind Hillary running. It was her turn, and that's that. What I'm talking about would require turning over a new leaf and somewhat rebranding on the public-facing side. Since everyone is sick of politics as usual it's a good tactical move. The last president anyone was excited about was Obama, and even his presidency soured everyone to having hope.

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Three, being President is not an unskilled job. Being good at being popular and even winning elections aren't the same thing as being good at being President. You do need someone who can do more than warm a chair in the role.

Well there's the type of CEO/VIP who hire based on experience. To an extreme, you'll see the tech posting "entry level job, minimum 5-10 years experience required, Python, C, etc etc". The rationale is no doubt that whoever has the most stacked CV will be the best. Really it's probably often just an excuse to not have to do decent onboarding. But then you have the occasional boss or CEO whose policy is that they want to hire the smartest and most adaptable people, even those with no experience who want to get into the field. The premise is that you're investing in training them and in return you get an exceptional hire who isn't stuck with any bad training they've received in previous toxic work environments or outdated bachelor's programs. I want to stress this last point because although being President isn't an unskilled job, I don't particularly think that you're better off with an insider who's been trained in who-knows-what-way, compared to someone intelligent and fresh who has a new perspective. Now you might say that this is fine for entry-level jobs, but you wouldn't hire a CEO who has no experience in the field. That's true, but the POTUS is a bit different, because most technical skill sets are supplied by the experts surrounding the office. You don't need to be an economist, or a lawyer, or a career political insider, or any other particular thing. You do need to be someone who can rally a team, who can rally the people, and who can represent the U.S. well and with good conscience. I don't think those qualities are taught in the Congress or in Governor school anyhow.

Grant

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Re: 2024
« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2022, 05:01:50 PM »
Didn't we just finish an election cycle?  Can we give it a rest?  It makes people ptptpptptptpptpt enough.  But you want more?  Please don't let it end?  Need one more hit?  Just one last hit?  Just to get you to 2024? 

GOP

Forgot Ducey.  He might be enticed to run by people who think DeSanctis is too Trumpy. 

Cruz-  Because his ego won't let him not.

Rubio- See Cruz

Rand Paul- So you have the choice

and Hogan, like M^2 said, for the same reason as Ducey. 

Romney and Cheney will not run.  Neither will Jeb!  They're too selfless.  They're not fit for American politics. 

The only for sure choices seem to be Trump and DeSanctis.  But we'll see how the egos and the centrists behave.  Anything more than two running and Trump is guaranteed to win.  He might still win even against DeSanctis alone in a primary.  But he won't win the general. 

Democrats

Biden- Old as Methuselah.  Gets confused.  Has two years for the economy to snap back, which could happen.  Inflation is starting to flatten.  Victory against Russia would clean out some of the bad taste of Afghanistan.  Too much road between now and 11-2024. 

Bernie- I think he's done. 

Harris- Will have the South Carolina caucus of the Democratic party behind her, but not much else.  Even SC might want to look elsewhere. 

Abrams- A perennial loser.  Same as O'Rourke. 

Warren- But, why?  Again, won't run against Uncle Joe. 


Independents

This is where it gets REAL FUN.  Only the most megalomaniacal are allowed. 

Kanye West- Endorsed by YHWH and the Anti-Illuminati League.   More than crazy enough.  Could actually suck crazy votes away from the Republicans and Democrats.  The only question is how much of each.  Wins New Hampshire. 

Elon Musk-  Now poster child for megalomaniac.  Has anointed himself a crusader against woke.  Twitter polls has convinced him he has power.  Hopefully Chappelle fans have convinced him otherwise, but I doubt it.  Maniacs are hard to convince.  L'Orange Jr.  Has the money.  Is crazy.  Check, check.  Wins Kentucky and West Virginia.   


And you WANT to think about this madness above? 

Wayward Son

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Re: 2024
« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2022, 05:56:15 PM »
Quote
That's true, but the POTUS is a bit different, because most technical skill sets are supplied by the experts surrounding the office. You don't need to be an economist, or a lawyer, or a career political insider, or any other particular thing. You do need to be someone who can rally a team, who can rally the people, and who can represent the U.S. well and with good conscience. I don't think those qualities are taught in the Congress or in Governor school anyhow.

But the POTUS must have the good sense to know who these experts are to surround himself with.  We've seen what happens when he doesn't in the previous Administration. :) 

Not to mention the good sense to listen to them, and also ignore them when they aren't talking good sense (which even experts sometimes do). ;)

While rallying the people is good for getting policy implemented, the day-to-day decisions are important, too.

And if you don't trust the insiders to be President, why would you trust them to make policy for the President? ;)

TheDrake

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Re: 2024
« Reply #8 on: December 13, 2022, 06:51:49 PM »
What I don't get is why the parties don't court a celebrity outsider to run. I know why, because they want a Party Man (or woman) who will do their bidding and not oppose the special interests. But seriously, if a popular celebrity ran they would run popularity circles around the above listed people. Remember in Back to the Future, when Doc is shocked that Reagan is President, but then reconsiders and realizes it makes perfect sense to have an actor in the White House in the era of TV? Well I guess that fizzled out, other than the Governator. Could you imagine how much of a landslide it would be if someone like Keannu Reeves (aside from the fact that he's Canadian) ran, and presented intelligently and thoughtfully? I really wonder why they don't approach some of these people and try to court them into becoming political, as front men for the party who will put a different type of voice into politics.

You mean like Schwarzenegger, Sonny Bono, Al Franken, Ronald Reagan, Dr Oz and Donald Trump? It's hardly unprecedented to leverage name recognition and celebrity.

You have to convince an independently wealthy person to take a public service job. That's your first obstacle. Which means you're limited to people with a tremendous ego to do a job they are not qualified for but who crave something other than just attention and admiration, despite what they got already. Who are willing to alienate half their fans when they pick sides, potentially. They tried to recruit Oprah for years.

Quote
“It’s not something that interests me,” Winfrey told InStyle. “... I met with someone the other day who said that they would help me with a campaign. That’s not for me.”

NobleHunter

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Re: 2024
« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2022, 08:48:30 PM »
The other lesson Trump teaches is that it is very difficult to control a President, especially one without any party loyalty. Once someone achieves the office of President, they matter more to the party than the party matters to them. Unless you allow for some kind of outright coercion, a party just doesn't have a lot of leverage. Not unless they want to cut off their nose to spite their face.

TheDrake

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Re: 2024
« Reply #10 on: December 13, 2022, 09:16:48 PM »
So you're saying kid rock might be a loose cannon?

Mynnion

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Re: 2024
« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2022, 09:35:28 AM »
I believe The Rock was considering a run at one point.  He actually might have a shot as a moderate.

I missed Pence although while he might have the name recognition he is hated by the MAGA crowd.

I do not believe Musk can run since he was born in South Africa and his father is South African and his mother Canadian.

Fenring

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Re: 2024
« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2022, 10:20:38 AM »
You mean like Schwarzenegger, Sonny Bono, Al Franken, Ronald Reagan, Dr Oz and Donald Trump? It's hardly unprecedented to leverage name recognition and celebrity.

I already mentioned Arnie, and he's the best example of a legit celebrity who decided to do some politics. Bono is actually a good name drop, but for Franken I'm not quite sure I agree that he made it in politics due to his celebrity. He wasn't exactly a household name. Likewise, was Reagan wildly accepted as a presidential candidate because of his illustrious career and famed persona? The funny thing is he actually come off (to me) as an un-charismatic stick in the mud, which is pretty the opposite of what I'm describing. Trump definitely was a notorious celebrity, of a different ilk than I was thinking of, but still being apt. I think the difference in his case was that he kept running for president over and over just for screen time, and I'm not quite sure he ever actually wanted to do a 'political job'. In fact I still think that may be true!

Quote
You have to convince an independently wealthy person to take a public service job. That's your first obstacle. Which means you're limited to people with a tremendous ego to do a job they are not qualified for but who crave something other than just attention and admiration, despite what they got already. Who are willing to alienate half their fans when they pick sides, potentially. They tried to recruit Oprah for years.

That's true. Such a person might have to be resigned to the fact that they won't go back to the same acting career they left if, for instance, they run as a Republican and anger a lot of left-leaning Hollywood types. But then again people like Alec Baldwin are pretty openly right-wing and still find work. The Governator seems to be so universally loved that people don't care that much which party he was associated with, and this is perhaps a bit of what I mean: they are running on themselves, rather than as a spokesperson for some party platform. And that's the appeal of having such a celebrity: it might help to separate away the Presidency from the party a little bit. Running the executive and being a diplomatic voice shouldn't even require party allegiance, notwithstanding the fact that the current primary system seems really punishing to independents (which involves MSM collusion to keep them out).

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2022, 01:16:52 PM »
Is Trump really running? I mean he announced he is but what has he done that a person running for President would normally do? What staff has he hired? What rally has he done?  Has he even left Mar-A-Lago since the announcement?  Maybe he forgot that he announced.

Mynnion

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Re: 2024
« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2022, 02:14:10 PM »
Good Question.  It probably depends on how long he can milk MAGA crowd and if he is indicted.  He would use running as a means to delay delay and delay.

Grant

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Re: 2024
« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2022, 04:37:58 PM »
Is Trump really running? I mean he announced he is but what has he done that a person running for President would normally do? What staff has he hired? What rally has he done?  Has he even left Mar-A-Lago since the announcement?  Maybe he forgot that he announced.

The longer he goes without hiring a large staff the more money he saves.  That's why he has minimal staff which is why they are struggling to keep him from having dinner with Ye and Hauptsturmtrupper Fuentes.  Because the perfectly normal genius who they want to see made POTUS again cannot function without babysitters.  I suspect that the primary reason he declared so soon, against advice, was in the hope that it would shield his dirty ass from prosecution.  That and he's already built some kind of slight momentum.  He gets to be called "frontrunner" on the interwebs because he's the only *censored* who has declared so far. 

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2022, 10:13:15 AM »
So what will be Trump's big announcement today?  He says he will have a massive announcement today.  That American needs a Superhero.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oSsZ0wdShLM

He is already running for President so what could be bigger? Running for World Leader?  Pope? Speaker of the House? The head of the Justice League? That he is not running for President?
« Last Edit: December 15, 2022, 10:15:27 AM by msquared »

Ouija Nightmare

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Re: 2024
« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2022, 10:49:05 AM »
So what will be Trump's big announcement today?  He says he will have a massive announcement today.  That American needs a Superhero.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oSsZ0wdShLM

He is already running for President so what could be bigger? Running for World Leader?  Pope? Speaker of the House? The head of the Justice League? That he is not running for President?

Perhaps he’s going to descend Britton Hill dressed in robes bearing stone tablets with the new commandments that God delivered to replace our constitution.

TheDrake

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Re: 2024
« Reply #18 on: December 15, 2022, 11:56:58 AM »
So what will be Trump's big announcement today?  He says he will have a massive announcement today.  That American needs a Superhero.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oSsZ0wdShLM

He is already running for President so what could be bigger? Running for World Leader?  Pope? Speaker of the House? The head of the Justice League? That he is not running for President?

Maybe he's getting a new wife, he seems about due.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #19 on: December 15, 2022, 12:04:40 PM »

Tom

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Re: 2024
« Reply #20 on: December 15, 2022, 12:35:47 PM »
Ignoring the farting clown over there in the corner, it occurs to me that the Dem candidate I would actually love to see is Katie Porter. I was a Sanders guy, but he's too old now; AOC is too young. And Harris, for all her other strengths, doesn't have good instincts; I don't trust her to surround herself with the right people, and think she'd just lean on the DNC for staff and policy recommendations. I would accept a Harris/Porter ticket, but for the fact that the misogynists would have a field day.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #21 on: December 15, 2022, 12:41:09 PM »
How about Porter/Abrams?

DJQuag

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Re: 2024
« Reply #22 on: December 15, 2022, 02:11:28 PM »
Not a fan of Harris' work as AG of California.

TheDrake

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Re: 2024
« Reply #23 on: December 15, 2022, 03:40:43 PM »
My big question is why Trump hasn't been grifting on crypto for years.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2022, 11:05:05 AM »
Well an early supporter of Trump in 2016 has now turned on Trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/early-trump-backers-message-republican-125928519.html

I wonder how soon Trump will call him a Never Trumper and  weak and ineffective?

One quote I find very telling.

To secure his support, Marino wrote, Trump would have had to “grow up and act presidential and refrain from calling potential candidates derogatory names.”

Trump, he added, “has thrown several people that were close to him under the bus”; “has no idea what loyalty means”; and “severely lacks character and integrity.”

“I will not support Trump, in fact, I will campaign against him,” Marino’s letter concluded. “Our country deserves a person who is mature, respects others and is honest to lead our nation.”

Mynnion

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Re: 2024
« Reply #25 on: February 14, 2023, 01:19:03 PM »
We now have Nikki joining the race.  I can't believe I missed her in my list.  I liked her at one point before she drank or at least appeared to drink Trump's Kool aide.  She has a lot going for her not the least of which is her gender.  Especially with women's rights playing an important role in the last election.  Does she have a shot?

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #26 on: February 14, 2023, 01:27:28 PM »
Trump wlll try and use her gender, and her family background, against her.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2023, 02:52:23 PM »
Well Feinstein's seat will be open. She just annouced she is not running for re election.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/longtime-u-senator-dianne-feinstein-190026505.html

yossarian22c

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Re: 2024
« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2023, 03:04:13 PM »
Well Feinstein's seat will be open. She just annouced she is not running for re election.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/longtime-u-senator-dianne-feinstein-190026505.html

No one is surprised. Schiff and Porter have already announced campaigns for Senate.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2023, 03:06:59 PM »
I agree it is not really a suprise. Schiff and Porter had to have some inkling or inside info.  I am sort of suprised they did not wait until she announced she was not going to run again.  Maybe it was a way of sort of forcing her hand.

msquared

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Re: 2024
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2023, 07:24:06 AM »
Well Trump has already said that if he loses either the primaries or the general it will be becuase prosecutors stole the election from him.