McCarthy and the House Speakership

[msquared]

So how much of his soul and power will McCarthy give away to take the Speakership?  If he does win how long will he last? A week? A month?

[Wayward Son]

Although the votes are still being taken, 19 Republicans so far have voted for someone other than McCarthy.

For the first time in 123 years, the Speakership was not determined on the first ballot.

The next Speaker is going to have a rough time, to put in mildly.

Meanwhile, Michael Beschloss has already bought a head of lettuce, to see which one--the Speaker or the lettuce--lasts longer. 

[rightleft22]

 absurdity on top of absurdity on top of absurdity all the way down

[msquared]

How can the Republicans unite the country if they are not able to unite themselves?

The Freedom Caucus is determined to burn it all down with a religious fervor. No compromise. No debate. No give. Their way or the high way. With them or against them, with God on their side. For the Soul of America.

[Mynnion]

So what happens if there is no Speaker? 

[msquared]

They keep voting and, I think, nothing happens until they agree.

This is how you might get someone like Liz Cheney. The more moderate Republicans get fed up with the far right and work out a deal with the Dems.

Probably will not happen but that is how that path might come about.

[msquared]

The far right members do not care about politics or the party. For the RINO MAGA members, it is all about loyalty to Trump and McCarthy was not loyal enough on Jan 6. So this is his punishment. They are a vindictive group. Just like Trump.

Trump may say they should vote for McCarthy in public but you can be sure he is laughing away in Mar-a-Lago.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mccarthy-gaetz-said-don-t-172708270.html

[TheDrake]

They have finally hit on the solution to blocking legislation. Now they don't even have to vote on anything.

But they also can't investigate laptop, laptop, laptop without a speaker, so I guess they'll figure something out. Maybe they'll elect Elon Musk as speaker, or Mike Lindell. Speaker Trump would be my personal favorite.

[msquared]

Trump would not want all the real work that goes along with  being Speaker.  they would not let him ride his golf cart from his office to the House Chamber.

[Tom]

This entire first pass is just a symbolic flex, a way of making sure McCarthy knows whose genitals he should be polishing. Where things will get tricky is if a couple hold-outs aren't offered the committees they want and continue to hold out as the budget deadline creeps nearer. A Republican promising to rubber-stamp the debt ceiling would almost certainly get a few Dem votes in that scenario.

[yossarian22c]

This entire first pass is just a symbolic flex, a way of making sure McCarthy knows whose genitals he should be polishing. Where things will get tricky is if a couple hold-outs aren't offered the committees they want and continue to hold out as the budget deadline creeps nearer. A Republican promising to rubber-stamp the debt ceiling would almost certainly get a few Dem votes in that scenario.

I can't believe the Democrats didn't learn their lesson from the Obama years and either eliminate the debt ceiling or raise it so high that it didn't need to be looked at for a good four (or even better 400) years. The economic hostage taking is the Republicans favorite negotiating tactic.

[TheDrake]

Trump would not want all the real work that goes along with  being Speaker.  they would not let him ride his golf cart from his office to the House Chamber.

That's why it would be great. He'd come in and collapse any semblance of order. Bringing everything up for a floor vote that he sees discussed on TV. Refusing to recognize Nancy Pelosi, nothing in the house rules would apply to him. He'd just adjourn because he was hungry.

[msquared]

Well he has lost 2 votes by the exact same count.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kevin-mc-carthy-falls-short-in-1st-house-speaker-vote-190632773.html

[TheDrake]

This entire first pass is just a symbolic flex, a way of making sure McCarthy knows whose genitals he should be polishing. Where things will get tricky is if a couple hold-outs aren't offered the committees they want and continue to hold out as the budget deadline creeps nearer. A Republican promising to rubber-stamp the debt ceiling would almost certainly get a few Dem votes in that scenario.

I can't believe the Democrats didn't learn their lesson from the Obama years and either eliminate the debt ceiling or raise it so high that it didn't need to be looked at for a good four (or even better 400) years. The economic hostage taking is the Republicans favorite negotiating tactic.

Can you believe that there was a way to get that through the Senate? Or were you expecting manchin to break the filibuster? Republican support for elimination of the debt ceiling was dependent on significant changes (cuts) in Medicare and social security. And a sunset provision on all federal programs requiring constant renewal. Essentially a way to kill any government spending with control of either house, or the presidency.

[Mynnion]

Trump would not want all the real work that goes along with  being Speaker.  they would not let him ride his golf cart from his office to the House Chamber.

I can see him pushing for it so he could impeach Biden and Harris and end up back in the White House.  The fact that it would never happen is an easily ignorible fact.

[Wayward Son]

This entire first pass is just a symbolic flex, a way of making sure McCarthy knows whose genitals he should be polishing. Where things will get tricky is if a couple hold-outs aren't offered the committees they want and continue to hold out as the budget deadline creeps nearer. A Republican promising to rubber-stamp the debt ceiling would almost certainly get a few Dem votes in that scenario.

I can't believe the Democrats didn't learn their lesson from the Obama years and either eliminate the debt ceiling or raise it so high that it didn't need to be looked at for a good four (or even better 400) years. The economic hostage taking is the Republicans favorite negotiating tactic.

They also may be counting on it to tarnish the Republicans every time they try to shut down the government by not paying the bills Congress has voted for.

Ah, politics... 

[Tom]

I think any political strategy that involves shaming Republicans is, quite frankly, built entirely on false premises.

[Wayward Son]

Actually, from what I've seen, shutting down the government seems to actually hurt Republicans in the next election, not just shame them.

I think Independents actually get mad when they do it.  And even some Republicans.

[msquared]

McConnell knows that as well. It is just the Teaparty/Freedom nuts that want to get rid of the Federal Gov.

[msquared]

So Trump is blaming McConnel for the chaos in the House.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-attacks-mcconnell-wife-over-015546349.html

So RINO MAGA Trumpist are torpedoing McCarthy's bid and McConnel (who is in the Senate) is the blame?

Another example in Trump world where Traitor Trump is never responsible when things go wrong. The lack of Republicans in the House can be tied directly to Trump and the vocal minority in the House who opposed McCarthy are all Trump supporters. If Trump had any leadership ability or power, he would bring them in line.

[msquared]

Trump finally gets his CAPS on.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-rallies-behind-another-doomed-142424553.html

[Wayward Son]

Republicans seem to have a problem with their Speakers.  Christopher Orr observed on Twitter:

The last four GOP speakers:

Gingrich: Resigned; left Congress
Hastert: Resigned; went to prison for sex abuse
Boehner: Resigned; left Congress
Ryan: Resigned; left Congress

This is the job that Kevin McCarthy is willing to be publicly humiliated for, however short his tenure.*

*Fwiw, I would be moderately astonished if he made it through the year.

Compare them to Nancy Pelosi, who got an HBO documentary when she retired. 

[msquared]

Just proves that Big Media is in bed with the Dems.

[Wayward Son]

Meanwhile, the Democratic response to all this is what you'd expect. 

[TheDrake]

Only a handful of Republicans need to get sick of this and make a deal with the Democrats. But to the freedom caucus, that's unthinkable. Despite Cheney and Romney turning traitor in their eyes.

[msquared]

I think since it is just a majority of the votes actually being cast, and not the total number of members, Jefferies could win it if a bunch of Republicans just vote present. So a bunch of the Republicans vote present and Jefferies becomes Speaker.

[msquared]

McCarthy may be working a deal out.  Again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/centrist-republican-says-preliminary-talks-173535202.html

I guess if all of the concessions he was willing to give to the RINO MAGA Trumpist was not enough to sway them, then go to the other end and make them irrelavent. They get no good committe assignments, no leadership roles. They follow MTG to uselessness.

[msquared]

So will McCarthy end up the Speaker?

How many votes before a Speaker is chosen?

[Wayward Son]

It would be truly ironic if the games these MAGA "Republicans" are playing makes the House reach across the aisle and start working with the other side again. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot! 

[Tom]

This is the part where we see whether the MAGAts have overplayed their hand. It entirely depends on the cooperative narratives they get from their preferred media.

[TheDrake]

McCarthy may be working a deal out.  Again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/centrist-republican-says-preliminary-talks-173535202.html

I guess if all of the concessions he was willing to give to the RINO MAGA Trumpist was not enough to sway them, then go to the other end and make them irrelavent. They get no good committe assignments, no leadership roles. They follow MTG to uselessness.

I think they are holding out for a trap door and a Dr. Evil button that will drop McCarthy into the flames distributed to each and every Republican house member if he doesn't do exactly what they tell him to do.

[Ouija Nightmare]

Only a handful of Republicans need to get sick of this and make a deal with the Democrats. But to the freedom caucus, that's unthinkable. Despite Cheney and Romney turning traitor in their eyes.

If they had any moderates left in the Republican party they could probably get the Democrats to elect them speaker.

It’s a shame that door is closed.

[msquared]

McCarthy agrees to give up even more power and still may not be able to claim victory.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mccarthy-bid-sees-glimmer-hope-132540724.html

is a Speaker with no Speaker powers still the Speaker?

[jc44]

The BBC reported that Fred Upton, a former Republican congressman from Michigan had put himself forward as a candidate. Does anyone think that a _former_ republican congressperson might make a plausible candidate? The idea does seem to tick the boxes of (a) republican and (b) not beholden to Trump which might allow for cross party support. Or is this just pundits fantasising wildly?

[rightleft22]

Once this is settled it would be interesting to see how accurate the pundits speculations were.
My unscientific observations are that the speculations are seldom on target and that in general most people react to the speculation (make themselves upset) then when the situation plays out as it does.

[Tom]

The big unknown, for me, is whether the main body of Republicans are scared enough of the demands the MAGAts are making (which would allow them as individuals to essentially control all procedural votes) that they'd be willing to accept Democratic help, or if this drags out long enough that Democrats go the other direction and reach out to Republicans as the debt ceiling becomes a real concern. The big spoiler here is going to be outlets like Fox News, which generally control how their viewers will perceive Republican action; if Fox pundits portray the MAGAts as underdog heroes sticking it to corrupt swampers, and thus any cross-aisle compromises as just more "RINO" (a term that becomes more and more ridiculous with each passing term) hypocrisy, it will be very difficult for Republicans to avoid being hijacked by their extremists.

[yossarian22c]

The big unknown, for me, is whether the main body of Republicans are scared enough of the demands the MAGAts are making (which would allow them as individuals to essentially control all procedural votes) that they'd be willing to accept Democratic help, or if this drags out long enough that Democrats go the other direction and reach out to Republicans as the debt ceiling becomes a real concern. The big spoiler here is going to be outlets like Fox News, which generally control how their viewers will perceive Republican action; if Fox pundits portray the MAGAts as underdog heroes sticking it to corrupt swampers, and thus any cross-aisle compromises as just more "RINO" (a term that becomes more and more ridiculous with each passing term) hypocrisy, it will be very difficult for Republicans to avoid being hijacked by their extremists.

At some point the non crazy wing (do they exist?) of the party has to look at the concessions he's offering and say its too much. But will they start withholding votes as well? Not sure they can play it off to the base as easily. Gerrymandering and primaries are a toxic combination and we're seeing the effects now. Democrats haven't had the fringe gain as much influence and power but its a sad state of affairs when 90% of the house really only fears losing an election in a primary. We either need lots more people showing up to vote in primaries or we need a new system. Given voter turnout, I think we need a new system of selecting the candidates and a new system of drawing the lines.

[msquared]

Matt Gaetz votes for Trump for Speaker, even after Trump told him that he should vote for McCarthy.  It's almost like Gaetz is rubbing Trump's powerlessness in his face.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gaetz-nominates-trump-for-speaker-of-the-house-184206353.html

[msquared]

This chaos is just the culmination of the Tea Party/ MAGA movement. They want chaos. They want to burn down the govenment. They do not compromise because they have a religious certainty that they are right and that the other side is evil and how do you compromise with evil?

[Mynnion]

At this point I think that some kind of deal with a group of centrist Democrats would be a better choice than the extreme right wing.  That would be great for the country but I doubt it will come about since as was mentioned above the GOP is always right.

[msquared]

Hopefully not all of them are that way.  Some moderate Republicans, joining with the Dems to select a moderate Republican who sidelines all of the RINO MAGA clowns would be a win for the country.

[yossarian22c]

Hopefully not all of them are that way.  Some moderate Republicans, joining with the Dems to select a moderate Republican who sidelines all of the RINO MAGA clowns would be a win for the country.

It would be, but let's face it the Republicans just got rid of Cheney and Kinzinger for having some modicum of ethics and respect for Democracy. Who is left that has any courage to broker a deal or power sharing arrangement? For most of them it doesn't matter how good for the country it is if you lose your next primary to MTG 2.0.

[rightleft22]

This chaos is just the culmination of the Tea Party/ MAGA movement. They want chaos. They want to burn down the govenment. They do not compromise because they have a religious certainty that they are right and that the other side is evil and how do you compromise with evil?

When the intention of limited government becomes no government. Of course if you 'win' the first thing you do is to create government... but this time for sure. 

I can't help but think that if the GOP stood up against Trump and Trumpism after Jan 06 they would be in much better shape today.

[Fenring]

Cheney

ethics

Democracy.

How far matters have devolved...

[rightleft22]

How far matters have devolved...

Isn't this what many who supported Trumpism wanted? A break down of the 'system'?

[Fenring]

How far matters have devolved...

Isn't this what many who supported Trumpism wanted? A break down of the 'system'?

I mean we've devolved to the point where someone is invoking the words Cheney and ethics in the same sentence.

[yossarian22c]

How far matters have devolved...

Isn't this what many who supported Trumpism wanted? A break down of the 'system'?

I mean we've devolved to the point where someone is invoking the words Cheney and ethics in the same sentence.

Different Cheney. At the end of the day I disagree with almost all of her political policies but she at least cared more about democracy and her integrity than her personal political career.

[Seriati]

This is how you might get someone like Liz Cheney. The more moderate Republicans get fed up with the far right and work out a deal with the Dems.

This is not how you get a Liz Cheney.  You get a Liz Cheney when politicians on both sides of the aisle have more invested in the "system" than in doing their actual jobs.  Whatever she claimed about principles, anyone who'd serve on the Jan. 6 committee when it operated under an expanded version of the star chamber rules that were pioneered in the political impeachment inquiries is not someone with principles.  Of course, it's probably quicker and just as accurate to assume that anyone that's intentionally working with Schiff has no principles.

On the speaker race, be interesting to see if anyone caves.  One would think eventually one of the groups has to decide to move things forward.  Be funny if the Dems started adding votes to one side or the other (but not enough to push anyone over the line). 

[msquared]

Serati

The Republicans had a chance to put people on the committe and when they chose 2 people who were very likely to be the ones investigated, it showed they were not serious.

It backfired on the Republicans and then they had no voice.

[Fenring]

Different Cheney. At the end of the day I disagree with almost all of her political policies but she at least cared more about democracy and her integrity than her personal political career.

I thought we were not so fond of political/economic dynasties. And what a dynasty...