Author Topic: Hong Kong  (Read 124 times)

Crunch

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Hong Kong
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:36:22 PM »
Hey, that’s kind of getting out of hand.

Should we do something? If so, what?

ScottF

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2019, 06:26:22 PM »

TheDrake

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2019, 06:56:41 PM »
How about we just send them our thoughts and prayers?

TheDeamon

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2019, 10:00:18 PM »
How about we just send them our thoughts and prayers?

Start a new Social Media hashtag because #activism always works wonders.

Crunch

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2019, 07:55:23 AM »
Oh yeah, hash tag stuff on Twitter!  That’ll do it. And photos of liberals making duck lips and little hearts with their hands!  Oh, oh, also, let’s put a semitransparent flag logo over social media profile photos.  That totes makes an impact.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 07:59:01 AM by Crunch »

Crunch

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2019, 07:57:23 AM »
Should we do something?

No.

Why not?  It’s looking like the communist regime is going to steamroll Hong Kong and grind them under the boot heels of a totalitarian state. Should we just let that happen?

Economic sanctions not viable?


cherrypoptart

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2019, 08:00:04 AM »
We could offer special amnesty and asylum terms for people who want to flee Hong Kong.

Wayward Son

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2019, 12:41:59 PM »
One way or another, we're going to end up on the short end of this crisis.

Quote
[T]he President has another headache on his hands, namely the ongoing unrest in Hong Kong. Some, including many in the Chinese government, think the United States is behind it. Who knows how true that is, but what is much clearer is that Xi Jinping is getting ready to crack down harshly, and Trump has no plan for what to do. "The Hong Kong thing is a very tough situation. I hope it works out peacefully. I hope nobody gets hurt. I hope nobody gets killed," he said. If things spiral out of control, it would be a very bad look for the White House, whether the U.S. gets more directly involved or it looks the other way, and would even further inflame tensions between the U.S. and China. That is particularly true if Taiwan is the next target, as many fear will be the case.

In short, the administration may be on the brink of its first full-blown foreign crisis. This one would even tax a skilled diplomat like Richard Nixon or Franklin D. Roosevelt, which means it's way, way above the pay grade of Trump and the other folks in the White House right now.

But at least Trump sent his thoughts and prayers. :)

D.W.

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2019, 01:25:13 PM »
You say that as if you want him to dive into the middle of this.  Are you just sniping from the sidelines or do you really think the US needs to act?

scifibum

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2019, 02:14:50 PM »
Trump should speak up for free speech and freedom of association, at the very least.

Fenring

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2019, 02:26:54 PM »
Trump should speak up for free speech and freedom of association, at the very least.

What does "speak up for" mean? Isn't that redundant since it's happening in a country where there literally isn't free speech?

ScottF

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2019, 01:36:26 AM »
I’d say he should double down on the tariff stuff but that would mean people would need to deal with the markets freaking out and lots of cheap Chinese crap being less cheap.

Crunch

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2019, 08:09:03 AM »
You say that as if you want him to dive into the middle of this.  Are you just sniping from the sidelines or do you really think the US needs to act?

For me, I just don’t know. I think the US should probably do something material to support the people of Hong Kong but what that would be I’m not sure. Thus, my question.

D.W.

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2019, 09:00:29 AM »
I expect there is a lot we could do to make things worse.  I'm not so sure we could make things better though.  I think offering to take those protesters (now branded terrorists by the state) off their hands is a good gesture.  As for anything else, official advisory against investment in Hong Kong as an unstable situation is about as far as I'd go.

The current propaganda is already that we, and the UK, are to blame and instigated/supported these lawless violent trouble makers.

Seriati

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2019, 09:55:25 AM »
Just a preface, I have no idea what to do.  Seems like a tragedy in the making.

What I can tell you is that any "symbolic" or public measures the US makes are likely to increase the risk of harm not mitigate it.  China is a society that believes that it has an image to present, appearing to back down from the US is not an option for them.  If we interject ourselves we may be doing little more than sealing the fate of the protesters, same for the UK - which is particularly sensitive for HK.  Japan, just as bad.  You'd need to find a state actor that is willing to take the lead that China doesn't have to deem as an existential threat.

Anything more than symbolic interference and you have to ask if intervening is worth a war with China.  Given that the people of HK would suffer massive casualties even in a victory, you'd almost have to consider it pretextual to consider supporting them militarily.

The only real options are completely behind the scenes or stay out of it and hope the "unstated" world opinion constrains China.  It can be real condemnation if they act.

TheDrake

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2019, 12:43:00 PM »
We shouldn't ignore the role Taiwan can play in this. Push China on Hong Kong, they'll likely do what they want to Hong Kong anyway and may decide while they're at it, they'll get rid of the special status for the other Chinese territory (from their perspective) that has some autonomy. They might not invade but they could definitely bring some pain with potential naval blockades. This could quickly get out of hand. All China has to do is blame Taiwan for supporting the protests as a believable pretense.

You can't build a UN coalition, because of the UNSC veto. So if you do sanctions, they'd be unilateral or opt-in multilateral. Even multilateral sanctions, like those put on Iran and NKo, have dubious ability to change behavior. The US is going to have a hard time getting people on board given the current state of geopolitics.

I have to say, Trump is playing this right by standing to the side and expressing a desire that China will be restrained. Ideally, the protesters back down. I don't really know what they think they can accomplish now. They're not going to spark any protests in the rest of China. They're not going to get concessions from China. There's a good chance they spark a much worse outcome. It is likely that they have achieved a preservation of the status quo already if they let it stand as is and return to normal.

Crunch

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Re: Hong Kong
« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2019, 12:52:26 PM »
Pelosi and some other Democrats are critical of Trump for not being more forceful is support of Jing Kong and Trump did just recently tie the ongoing trade negotiations to Hong Kong protesters being treated humanely. So it seems everyone is aligned on the idea that we should do something. I just don’t see anything we can do that’s really impactful although making it part of the trade deal could be pretty motivational