Author Topic: Playing with Stats  (Read 1070 times)


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Playing with Stats
« on: September 27, 2017, 05:52:01 PM »
Interesting article in the WSJ on improvements in family wealth.  While they didn't make the express case that this is an Obama boom, they focused on the 2013 to 2016 period to show the changes.

The improvements in households’ wealth came as asset prices posted strong gains during the survey years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 47.3% from January 2013 to December 2016, while the S&P 500 rose 53.1%. Home prices rose 28% in the same period, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.

I found that very interesting but it got me wondering, since there was huge post Trump being elected spike how they ran those numbers.  They don't state it, but they leave the implication it was a steady gain over the period.  Sure enough they ran the Dow Jones numbers all the way to year end to get to the 47% increase, if on the other hand, they had run them to just before Trump won the election it would have only been a 33% increase.  Almost 1/3 of the entire increase occurred in the month and a half after it became clear that Trump would be President.

By the way, if you looked at the "same" metric on the Dow Jones for the less than one year period from Trump's election to the current date, you'd have a 24% increase, or roughly speaking 2/3's of the pre-Trump 3-year curve.  Makes me wonder about the other stats.

Wait and see, the WSJ didn't attribute the gain to Obama, but it'll come up on a talking points argument from someone else in the near future.

In any event, good news on the increase, too bad on the dramatic increase in the top 1% share at the same time.

EDIT:  For the record, I'm the one playing with stats here.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 05:59:35 PM by Seriati »