Author Topic: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:  (Read 99884 times)

NobleHunter

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #600 on: April 27, 2020, 07:35:05 PM »
If that's true, then he's doing a terrible job of it. Because I'd wager most research did not feel motivated and encouraged by his blathering about light and disinfection.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #601 on: April 27, 2020, 08:34:48 PM »
Trump is addressing more than just the public, he is also addressing myriads of researchers and smart people who are looking in and hoping for something to help them in their work.
Trust me, not a single researcher or smart person is looking to Trump for medical research ideas. 

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #602 on: April 28, 2020, 12:54:00 PM »
The analysis is on creative group problem solving - not on business and administrative problem solving - which is normally the antithesis of creativity. When Trump restates the ideas put forward by his advisors, the media could help by playing by the creativity hopefulness in which the ideas are created - instead, they put the kibosh and anything and everything, which stultifies any creativity. IOW, they are working against solving any problems.

In this best case interpretation of what Trump was saying would you agree that it is stupid to do it during a press conference. CEO's don't have brainstorming sessions during interviews, press briefings, or during investor meetings. Brainstorming sessions are done in private and the best results are then made public. Please stop defending this idiot statement at an idiotic time. Trump isn't even defending it anymore, he called it sarcastic, which is wasn't, then canceled all news briefings so he doesn't have to answer questions from the press anymore.

Actually, you are incorrect. Trump is addressing more than just the public, he is also addressing myriads of researchers and smart people who are looking in and hoping for something to help them in their work. It's just the way it is. Presidents use the bully pulpit to motivate and encourage, not just to disseminate metrics. When a researcher says something in abstruse ways, a good host will make sure that info is made understandable. Too many posters here have the idea that he says things off the cuff that are unwarranted, but in reality, he rarely moves away from what his advisers have stated - he just makes it more understandable, then the MSM tries to confuse things, working against him.

Trump says he was asking a sarcastic question to reporters (absolutely a blatant lie if you watch the video).

So do you think Trump is a liar about saying its sarcasm or was he sarcastically speaking to medial researchers by presenting ideas like a 6 year old?

"Why can't we inject disinfectant into the body" is a reasonable idea from a kindergartner but is absolute nonsense from a "stable genius."


Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #603 on: April 28, 2020, 01:45:03 PM »
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So do you think Trump is a liar about saying its sarcasm or was he sarcastically speaking to medial researchers by presenting ideas like a 6 year old?

"Why can't we inject disinfectant into the body" is a reasonable idea from a kindergartner but is absolute nonsense from a "stable genius."

Why can't it be both?  He lied when he said it was sarcasm and he tossed it off with the same level of confidence and worldly insight that any 6 year old could probably muster.  I have to point out yet again that in a contest to see who is the real stable genius, Mr. Ed is still way out ahead on points.  However, if the two of them could find a way to work together in the White House, that would definitely be a ratings winner.  To which as we always say, Neigh, neigh!

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #604 on: April 28, 2020, 04:29:46 PM »
A publicly-traded biotech company called Aytu BioScience has been developing a device to test "internally Applied Ultraviolet Light as a Novel Approach for Effective and Safe Anti-Microbial Treatment". The device is called Healight and in (very) early dev. stage. A paper from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center writes that "these findings suggest that UVA therapy can potentially provide a safe and effective novel approach to antimicrobial treatment via phototherapy on internal organs". Kind of like, oh I dunno - light inside the body?

No definitive results yet, not FDA approved, nobody claiming it will ever work. But it's EXACTLY in line with Trump's adhoc statement of "...[bringing] the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way”.

Here's where it gets more interesting. Youtube removed the Atyu Bioscience company video highlighting the proof of concept device the day after Trump's quotes made headlines. It was removed for "violating community standards".

So a publicly-traded biotech company has a video on youtube clearly stating that they're in early proof of concept stage for a device, created based on an abstract from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center paper, that is investigating exactly the kind of device Trump talked about.

Trump gets pilloried by the wisest among us at the very idea that such a thing could exist.

"Hurka-durka  - idiot Trump wants us all to swallow lightbulbs or stick lamps up our butts, hurka-durka stupid Trump(tm)!"

Then people start discovering that it turns out that such a thing is being researched and potentially developed, as evidenced by a legit company video on Youtube. Youtube quickly removes video which prior to Trump mention was ok but now violates terms.

This is the simulation winking at us.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #605 on: April 28, 2020, 05:03:26 PM »
I've heard about light treatment a while ago and as for the 'bleach' pondering Trump was basically describing a chemo like treatment.

The issue was if such pondering belong in the briefing, if it was helpful, and how that information was communicated - Trump was making a joke, setting a trap, wasn't speaking literally... so intention has to be implied which is going to involve bias.

Is such communication style presidential and good for the country? - Does it make America great. 

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #606 on: April 28, 2020, 05:10:50 PM »
Trump gets pilloried by the wisest among us at the very idea that such a thing could exist.
No - Trump got pilloried because he suggested injecting disinfectant into human bodies.  Those were separate topics.

"And then I see the disinfectant.  It knocks it out in a minute - one minute. Something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning."

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #607 on: April 28, 2020, 05:24:25 PM »
They are separate areas of derision. He was also hammered for suggesting "internal light" options.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #608 on: April 28, 2020, 05:27:34 PM »
I've heard about light treatment a while ago and as for the 'bleach' pondering Trump was basically describing a chemo like treatment.

The issue was if such pondering belong in the briefing, if it was helpful, and how that information was communicated - Trump was making a joke, setting a trap, wasn't speaking literally... so intention has to be implied which is going to involve bias.

Is such communication style presidential and good for the country? - Does it make America great.

See this I agree with. I think it's stupid of him to "brainstorm" in real time as part of a press conference. Like, really stupid. If it seems like I'm defending that vs calling out reactions to it, I've done a poor job.

Aris Katsaris

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #609 on: April 28, 2020, 05:32:14 PM »
A publicly-traded biotech company called Aytu BioScience has been developing a device to test "internally Applied Ultraviolet Light as a Novel Approach for Effective and Safe Anti-Microbial Treatment". The device is called Healight and in (very) early dev. stage. A paper from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center writes that "these findings suggest that UVA therapy can potentially provide a safe and effective novel approach to antimicrobial treatment via phototherapy on internal organs". Kind of like, oh I dunno - light inside the body?

No definitive results yet, not FDA approved, nobody claiming it will ever work. But it's EXACTLY in line with Trump's adhoc statement of "...[bringing] the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way”.

Here's where it gets more interesting. Youtube removed the Atyu Bioscience company video highlighting the proof of concept device the day after Trump's quotes made headlines. It was removed for "violating community standards".

So a publicly-traded biotech company has a video on youtube clearly stating that they're in early proof of concept stage for a device, created based on an abstract from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center paper, that is investigating exactly the kind of device Trump talked about.

Trump gets pilloried by the wisest among us at the very idea that such a thing could exist.

"Hurka-durka  - idiot Trump wants us all to swallow lightbulbs or stick lamps up our butts, hurka-durka stupid Trump(tm)!"

Then people start discovering that it turns out that such a thing is being researched and potentially developed, as evidenced by a legit company video on Youtube. Youtube quickly removes video which prior to Trump mention was ok but now violates terms.

This is the simulation winking at us.

Also are you sure causality isn't reversed in much of what you describe?

Some guy has a ultraviolet-ray untested treatment they are perhaps researching (if it's not just a scam). Trump is told about it, and supports such research, because POPULARITY for him, if it works, he is now the saviour of humanity -- and nobody gives a *censored* if it doesn't work. And investors perhaps flock to that possibly-scam research, right? So big-win for the guy who 'informed' Trump of it.

Trump wasn't the first person on the planet to suggest hydroxychloroquine too. We didn't bash Trump for doing so because hydroxychloroquine wasn't a real thing, as you seem to be thinking. We are bashing him because either way it's not the job of the president to be brainstorming in public about yet untested treatments.

That his latest suggestion involved researching into injecting disinfectants (and incidentally also UV light, another generic disinfectant who will destroy lots of things, not just the things we want destroyed), is just the cherry on top.

Yes, Trump, congratulations, even in the case that your idea isn't completely moronic (as the bleach thing was), it's just completely useless and ONLY counterproductive instead: you've instead ensured that people will be invested POLITICALLY in whether that particular research bears fruit or not. In either direction. If the guys researching this were legit, they're now thinking "*censored*, now everyone will be associating my research with Trump. It'll drive away anyone properly educated." instead. But if they weren't legit they'll be happy, because the money of morons are as good as the money of intelligent people, and they don't actually need researchers, just people to scam.

But my guess is that Trump can't be content with supporting medical science in general, he must name himself specific treatments, so that they can hopefully contribute to his personal glory.

Wayward Son

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #610 on: April 28, 2020, 06:43:56 PM »
"When will all of the 'reporters' who have received Noble Prizes for their work on Russia, Russia, Russia, only to have been proven totally wrong (and, in fact, it was the other side who committed the crimes) be turning back their cherished 'Nobles' so that they can be given to the REAL REPORTERS & JOURNALISTS who got it right."

Deleted tweet of our Very Sane Genius President, Donald Trump--a "genius" who doesn't know the difference between the Nobel Prize and a Noble Prize. :)  And didn't realize that there is no Nobel Prize for journalism.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #611 on: April 28, 2020, 06:45:26 PM »
He was being socrastic.  He do that a lot.

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #612 on: April 28, 2020, 07:04:42 PM »
...I think it's stupid of him to "brainstorm" in real time as part of a press conference. Like, really stupid. If it seems like I'm defending that vs calling out reactions to it, I've done a poor job.

In actuality, a disinfectant does not need to be toxic to target specific things. Trump did not say to drink Lysol or bleach. Healight has been mentioned in multiple posts in multiple threads. I mentioned that we use light internally during many operations already. Using UV light would not be a stretch.

Just for you know-it-alls who don't know any better, a chemical that destroys vegetative forms of harmful microorganisms does not have to destroy healthy tissue. If you want it to, then what kind of morality do you champion? You want Trump to look stupid, so you create a straw man to ridicule.

Also, Trump was not brainstorming. He was leading a discussion of medical advisors to answer questions from a largely hostile group of Leftwing activists posing as journalists. One of the things mentioned with sunlight being a disinfectant and humid air helping. We ingest humid air all the time. Every CPAP machine has a water reservoir to provide humid air internally. Isn't penicillin a disinfectant? I guess we just rub that externally on the body, neh?

Oh wait. Activists with an agenda want to redefine whatever Trump says in whatever ludicrous way they can get away with. They did that by telling us the idiots who drank fish-tank cleaner did it because Trump told them to.

I don't particularly care for the "sarcasm" excuse. That was what Schiff did when he lied about the Ukraine phone call. I don't think it was the proper term for what Trump did, when he asked his advisers if there is some way to use the light, humidity, and disinfectant internally. He wasn't addressing the media at the time. He had turned to the doctors and addressed them directly.

Aris Katsaris

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #613 on: April 28, 2020, 07:19:41 PM »
Moreover; the Trump brainstorming is exactly that. Only the least gracious would deny answering in the way they should. Is there a way to use UV light and disinfectants safely? No, injections like drug fixes are stupid, but how about the Healight that Crunch mentioned?

Also, Trump was not brainstorming. He was leading a discussion of medical advisors to answer questions from a largely hostile group of Leftwing activists posing as journalists.

So was Trump brainstorming or wasn't he?

Just for you know-it-alls who don't know any better, a chemical that destroys vegetative forms of harmful microorganisms does not have to destroy healthy tissue.

So if we're not talking bleach (or similar), we're going back to he's merely suggesting to doctors that perhaps they ought inject some completely unspecified stuff to patients, that'll make them better.

Because doctors and researchers had never thought of anything like the concept of injecting people with stuff to make them better, and they needed Trump to tell them to look into this.

rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #614 on: April 28, 2020, 07:32:07 PM »
Quote
I don't particularly care for the "sarcasm" excuse. That was what Schiff did when he lied about the Ukraine phone call. I don't think it was the proper term for what Trump did, when he asked his advisers if there is some way to use the light, humidity, and disinfectant internally. He wasn't addressing the media at the time. He had turned to the doctors and addressed them directly.

I read your post and just don't know if I should laugh or cry

As a apologist, your the best - He wasn't addressing the media in the media briefing... Just two people shooting the breeze during a briefing naively unaware others were listing who might take whats said seriously and at face value.

Personally I don't think such incidences are accidental, If not the President may have issues remembering where he is and who hes talking to, learning from past communication 'misunderstandings', doesn't care enough to do better., has no clue as to the details of the issues he's talking about... Or maybe hes just is naive. Non of which are great attributes of a good leader, or even good enough leader. We should want better

TheDrake

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #615 on: April 28, 2020, 07:37:44 PM »
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One of the things mentioned with sunlight being a disinfectant and humid air helping. We ingest humid air all the time.

Trump didn't say ingest. He said inject. They have very different meanings. A diabetic can't swallow insulin, and you wouldn't want to inject penicillin. I'd give Trump a pass for having a slip of the tongue, but Trump "knows words" and he has "the best words".

NobleHunter

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #616 on: April 28, 2020, 09:28:05 PM »
In actuality, a disinfectant does not need to be toxic to target specific things. Trump did not say to drink Lysol or bleach. Healight has been mentioned in multiple posts in multiple threads. I mentioned that we use light internally during many operations already. Using UV light would not be a stretch.

Just for you know-it-alls who don't know any better, a chemical that destroys vegetative forms of harmful microorganisms does not have to destroy healthy tissue. If you want it to, then what kind of morality do you champion? You want Trump to look stupid, so you create a straw man to ridicule.

You know, none of this makes Trump sound any better. Your "defense" makes it sound like Trump is too stupid or ignorant to know about anti-virals. Which would be a much less confusing way to talk about something that "disinfects" only the virus.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #617 on: April 29, 2020, 11:52:25 AM »
They are separate areas of derision. He was also hammered for suggesting "internal light" options.
He was primarily hammered for his 'ideas' about injecting poison. You don't see a lot of LED memes out there, but the Chlorox and Lysol memes are everywhere.

wmLambert

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #618 on: April 29, 2020, 12:04:35 PM »
...Your "defense" makes it sound like Trump is too stupid or ignorant to know about anti-virals. Which would be a much less confusing way to talk about something that "disinfects" only the virus.

No, the only stupidity shown here is assuming the doctors he was asking the question to, know that the report which said "disinfectants" can kill the virus has any use.  No one assumes anti-virals is the end-all and be-all. Sunlight is anti-viral in affect, neh? The report also said humidity helps. Why even bring up anti-virals as if naming them is a dagger in  President Trump's back?

NobleHunter

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #619 on: April 29, 2020, 12:07:07 PM »
Because something that kills the virus without unduly harming the rest of the body is called an anti-viral.

TheDeamon

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #620 on: April 29, 2020, 12:12:18 PM »
I don't particularly care for the "sarcasm" excuse. That was what Schiff did when he lied about the Ukraine phone call. I don't think it was the proper term for what Trump did, when he asked his advisers if there is some way to use the light, humidity, and disinfectant internally. He wasn't addressing the media at the time. He had turned to the doctors and addressed them directly.

The better word to use likely would have been "I was speaking rhetorically" on that matter, but that's a 5 dollar word and outside his reach.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #621 on: April 29, 2020, 02:16:01 PM »
It wasn't sarcasm.  Better if he had said he was indulging in persiflage.

Wayward Son

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #622 on: April 29, 2020, 05:56:18 PM »
The bottom line is that even the question about disinfectants used within the body shows Trump's level of ignorance.  He obviously has no idea how disinfectants like alcohol kill bacteria and viruses (or he would have known how stupid that question was), and he has so little faith and belief in medical professionals (or such an overinflated ego) that he thinks he can come up with an obvious idea that none of them had considered.

It just demonstrates that the man if an utter fool.

cherrypoptart

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #623 on: April 29, 2020, 10:42:11 PM »
"Better if he had said he was indulging in persiflage."

Good word. Perhaps another concern is that he apparently doesn't understand the meaning of the word sarcasm.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #624 on: April 30, 2020, 07:47:06 AM »
"Better if he had said he was indulging in persiflage."

Good word. Perhaps another concern is that he apparently doesn't understand the meaning of the word sarcasm.

:) That's why I used it.  He has all the best words, like a dictionary does.  But if you never open the dictionary you might not know what they mean.  I'm not sure he knows what the word "inject" means, either.  Is he thinking that you could use a 3D inject printer with disinfectant ink?

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #625 on: May 04, 2020, 09:49:48 PM »
Looks like the Washington prediction has been removed from the CDC website a day after they changed their high end prediction of fatalities from 74K to 134K.  Also, the CDC has disavowed an internal study draft that projects that the daily fatality rate will more than double by June 1.

Seriati

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #626 on: May 05, 2020, 09:25:17 AM »
I really don't understand why the "predictions" keep changing.  As I understand it nothing we are currently doing is actively working to reduce the total number of infections long term.  The expectation is that eventually the majority of people in the country will catch the virus and the only benefit of destroying the economy through lockdowns is that maybe we won't have too many serious cases in any one location for it's hospitals to manage.  While it's not clear that hospitals can do much to help the serious cases, it is clear that not treating the moderate cases will increase fatalities.

Wouldn't it be better to alter the lockdowns to lock down everyone high risk and force as much of the low risk population as possible into close proximity?  Unless we're talking a cure - which may or may not even be possible - isn't that the best approach?  To get the maximum number of the population least likely to need hospital care infected as rapidly as possible, thus ensuring maximum herd exposure on the shortest time scale with the lowest number of deaths?

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #627 on: May 05, 2020, 09:37:57 AM »
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I really don't understand why the "predictions" keep changing.

Then you have a problem.  Models product outcomes based on data informed by assumptions that are then tested.  Change the assumptions and you'll change the outcomes.  Why say "predictions" instead of predictions?

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Wouldn't it be better to alter the lockdowns to lock down everyone high risk and force as much of the low risk population as possible into close proximity?

Your plan is to weed out the high risk people and weak people in lower risk categories.  That's very noble of you.  I bet one infected grandchild could wipe out a big portion of a nursing home.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #628 on: May 05, 2020, 09:46:31 AM »
The recent changes in the modelled projections were based on loosening suppression restrictions, as well as based on updates to actual cases and deaths (previous projections were for deaths this past week to have been averaging around 1000/day and dropping, as opposed to the actuals of between 1500 and 2000 per day.)

Seriati

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #629 on: May 05, 2020, 09:57:32 AM »
Again Kasandra, you seem to be answering questions made up in your own mind.

My understanding is that absent a cure, the expectation is that most of the population is going to be infected.  The point of everything we are doing is to spread that infection out, NOT to reduce the total amount of infections.  If I'm wrong on that then confront that issue directly.

DonaldD, if my understanding is correct, the total deaths won't change absent hospital capacity being overwhelmed.  How rapidly they occur will change.  Is the model time limited on its projection?

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #630 on: May 05, 2020, 10:13:13 AM »
Think harder.  Are you suggesting that the original model projecting 2,000,000 deaths if nothing was done to mitigate the pandemic is still correct, that 2,000,000 will still die, and is in agreement with predicted outcomes from all other models?

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #631 on: May 05, 2020, 10:15:19 AM »
The model of which I am aware (that showed 60k then was adjusted up to 72K) shows deaths up until August 4 - however, it also projected that deaths would drop to zero by July.  I think that was based on idealized behaviours country-wide, and the projected drop off in cases and deaths seemed more aggressive than was recently experienced in other countries.  I think there was a challenge between modelling idealized behaviours mathematically and the complexities of the real world... and as i mentioned, it did not take into account the changing strategies, where loosening restrictions would occur well above the model's trigger values.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #632 on: May 05, 2020, 10:22:28 AM »
My understanding is that absent a cure, the expectation is that most of the population is going to be infected.  The point of everything we are doing is to spread that infection out, NOT to reduce the total amount of infections.  If I'm wrong on that then confront that issue directly.

No that doesn't have to be the case. We are trying to reduce the total number of infections. If we get the number of infections in a given area down low enough to control with contract tracing and expanded testing then we can control the disease without herd immunity. But that also probably means we aren't going back to mass events and lots of airline travel until a vaccine arrives.

When Buffet is dumping an entire sector (airlines) I think it means that he isn't expecting airline equity to have any value. They are all going bankrupt, capacity is way too high for the next year.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #633 on: May 05, 2020, 10:22:44 AM »
Yup - just checked - the model has now been updated with the past week's historical numbers, and the trend no longer shows a steep drop of deaths down to zero by the end of June.

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #634 on: May 05, 2020, 10:22:48 AM »
Think harder.  Are you suggesting that the original model projecting 2,000,000 deaths if nothing was done to mitigate the pandemic is still correct, that 2,000,000 will still die, and is in agreement with predicted outcomes from all other models?

I think you're conflating original death predictions (regardless of scenario) with overall infection expectations. I believe Seriati is asking if some people believe we should be trying to prevent overall infections as a permanent objective vs staggering inevitable infections ie the original curve-flattening mantra.

Personally, I don't think many people believe the former, or at least they're not saying it out loud.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #635 on: May 05, 2020, 10:27:49 AM »
My understanding is that absent a cure, the expectation is that most of the population is going to be infected.
Not necessarily - if we can get the infection load low enough, and if we can get the R0 below the level of exponential growth with relaxed suppression methods, then we will likely have bought enough time for a vaccine to be developed, and probably also to have better treatments available.


ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #636 on: May 05, 2020, 10:53:41 AM »
What has the average overall infection rate of seasonal flu been the past few years? Seems to me the high end of that number would be the best-case for the lower range of covid infection %.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #637 on: May 05, 2020, 10:59:36 AM »
That's certainly a rule of thumb, but the numbers are not really comparable. We don't normally lock down public places and have people isolate themselves annually... To take it to the extreme, if everybody self-isolated perfectly, COVID-19 would disappear within weeks and would not approach normal seasonal flu rates of infection.  The effectiveness of current isolation measures have a direct effect on those numbers, and that effectiveness is a pretty large unknown at this point.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #638 on: May 05, 2020, 11:24:12 AM »
Until we have an effective vaccine that will moot the different model projections and strategies, the disease will continue to move through the population.  If it moves more slowly (due to restrictions and protections) and the death rate declines due to more effective treatments, the death total won't climb as quickly and won't reach as high. It's pretty simple math.  Since most of the models assume we can't prevent deaths more effectively than we do now and can't prevent people from being infected, they will generally arrive at similar death totals, but at different points in time.

But, having said that, I think that deaths will decline in the most high risk venues as we get smarter about preventing those people from coming in contact with people who are already infected.  As sad and tragic as it feels, not allowing visitors into nursing homes, and significantly scaling back unprotected production facilities like meat packing plants should be stringently enforced.  We can't stop stupid behaviors, though, so I expect the infection (and therefore death) rate to climb in less densely populated areas of the country while it declines in urban areas that have been hard hit but are continuing the commercial and social venue restrictions and enforcing self-protections.  Here is one projection for new cases of NYC vs. the rest of the country.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #639 on: May 05, 2020, 11:34:35 AM »
Also something to note - the virus/pandemic models do not take into account any societal effects, be they resulting health outcomes from depression or isolation or unemployment, or from delayed treatments and loss of access to hospitals, or from health providers becoming overworked and less effective...

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #640 on: May 05, 2020, 11:39:07 AM »
If you are really resigned to everyone being infected then you could advocate for challenge trials of vaccines. Challenge vaccine trials would take the various vaccine proposals that have gotten through phase 1 testing and test a large number of people then a couple weeks later deliberately expose them to the virus and see who gets sick. NPR had an ethicist on the other day who advocated that people should be allowed to volunteer for those types of studies so that we can potentially move the vaccine timeline from 12-18 months down to 2-4 months.

Its extreme but a utilitarian argument would say it is likely to save lives in the long run even if some of the volunteers died.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #641 on: May 05, 2020, 11:47:04 AM »
Personally I am not opposed to allowing people to volunteer for a challenge vaccine trial. In a study of 2-4 thousand otherwise healthy adults we would expect 4-10 deaths if the vaccine weren't effective at all. But following phase 1 trials we should be able to test to see if people were producing anti-bodies to the virus and control the initial viral load (keep it small). Adding those final two factors there would be people likely to become ill but it is very possible that you could run the trial without fatalities and save a lot of lives in the long run. It goes against the last 40-50 years of medical ethics to run trials like that on humans but this is an extreme case.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #642 on: May 05, 2020, 11:55:02 AM »
You're making the hopeful assumption that a vaccine candidate in that sort of challenge trial wouldn't be ineffective or produce its own harmful effects.  That's not a safe assumption, so it's possible that the number of infections (with its own R factor) and deaths would be much higher.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #643 on: May 05, 2020, 12:08:25 PM »
You're making the hopeful assumption that a vaccine candidate in that sort of challenge trial wouldn't be ineffective or produce its own harmful effects.  That's not a safe assumption, so it's possible that the number of infections (with its own R factor) and deaths would be much higher.

This would be post phase 1 trials, where vaccines are tested for safety and harmful side effects. Also given that we are knowingly infecting people they would be quarantined for 3 weeks following the intentional exposure to the virus.

It is entirely possible the vaccine would be completely ineffective. However, as I am viewing the current political climate it looks like we don't have the political will to shut down long enough to get the number of new infections low enough to control with contact tracing and enhanced testing. Given that it looks like we're on a path as a society to allow people to more or less be randomly infected I don't see a good reason to avoid exposure for scientific and societal gains. If I thought we had a chance to get down to chinese levels of new infections per day I would be much more hesitant to advocate for early human trials but I don't want that kind of totalitarian government response. Also, the protesters have made it very clear the only way to have a shut down that effective would be through extreme government authority. So given the political realities I see allowing vaccines that successfully pass phase 1 and whose participants have produced coronavirus anti-bodies to be rushed into a larger human trial with deliberate exposure to the virus.

DonaldD

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #644 on: May 05, 2020, 02:02:27 PM »
OK, so Pompeo is not Trump, but he seems to be channelling Trump
Quote
RADDATZ: Do you believe it was manmade or genetically modified?

POMPEO: Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.

RADDATZ: Your -- your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not manmade or genetically modified.

POMPEO: That's right. I -- I -- I agree with that. Yes. I've -- I've seen their analysis. I've seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate at this point.

RADDATZ: OK, so just to be clear, you do not think it was manmade or genetically modified?

POMPEO: I've seen what the intelligence community has said. I have no reason to believe that they've got it wrong.

yossarian22c

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #645 on: May 05, 2020, 02:29:11 PM »
Trump's response to why Fauci can't testify before the house.

Quote
Because the House is a set up. The House is a bunch of Trump haters. They put every Trump hater on the committee, the same old stuff.

Kasandra

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #646 on: May 05, 2020, 03:10:00 PM »
Hannah Arendt tried to draw a line between what she saw as evil and the banality of evil.  Those with the intent to do harm could be called evil, but those who were following orders without particular personal animosity toward their victims demonstrated the banal aspect of doing evil.  Some who work for Trump or follow his orders do it enthusiastically and believe as he does.  A few here might fall into that category.  But most who carry out their orders are functionaries or bureaucrats simply doing their jobs.  The vast majority of civil servants and military workers whose actions harm sometimes a great number of people are in the latter category, even though they are likely well aware of the death and suffering they directly and indirectly cause. 

I don't know which category to put Pompeo into, even though carries out and follows the twists and turns of Trump's policy objectives and goals with gusto.  I tend to think he has higher aspirations for office once Trump leaves, which might put him in a separate category from either of those two, perhaps as a "House of Cards" kind of player, where power is all he really believes in. 

DonaldD

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rightleft22

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #648 on: May 06, 2020, 09:20:33 AM »
Trump's response to why Fauci can't testify before the house.

Quote
Because the House is a set up. The House is a bunch of Trump haters. They put every Trump hater on the committee, the same old stuff.

Good thing Trump is a republican can you imagine the reaction otherwise.   

ScottF

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Re: A Message from the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump:
« Reply #649 on: May 06, 2020, 10:33:25 AM »
Trump (or his spokespeople) should take the Rachel Maddow approach every time he's accused of lying. Maddow is being sued in a defamation case for making false statements.

I couldn't care less about the case, but her attorney's primary strategy seems to be that she was clearly offering up her “own unique expression” of her views to capture what she saw as the “ridiculous” nature of the undisputed facts.

“Her comment, therefore, is a quintessential statement ‘of rhetorical hyperbole, incapable of being proved true or false,’”

If she wins the case, it's kind of a get out of jail free card for anything you feel like saying. Trump's people should just copy/paste that every time he says something stupid. It's rhetorical hyperbole, incapable of being proved true or false.