coronavirus

[Greg Davidson]

Darn, I missed the fun here for several years. 

Would have been instructive to get some of the folk on the record back in March about the anticipated death count if we didn't start taking common sense national precautions. 

[DJQuag]

Look through Crunch's posts on the matter, there's some gold there.

[msquared]

We were just notified that the founder of the company I work for has been in the hospital with Covid and on a ventilator for the past 8 days.  He is about 83 years old, I think (he and my dad were roommates in college). His wife was also in the hospital.

[TheDeamon]

Darn, I missed the fun here for several years. 

Would have been instructive to get some of the folk on the record back in March about the anticipated death count if we didn't start taking common sense national precautions.

The common sense national precautions were the "15 days to slow the spread" and to allow hospitals to stockpile/prepare for the crush of potential patients so they don't die as a consequence of inability to receive care.

You know, back when the United States was looking at in excess of 2 million people dead from Covid19.

[DonaldD]

You know, back when the United States was looking at in excess of 2 million people dead from Covid19.

The USA was never looking at in excess of 2 million people dead.  That was a projection of dead if exactly nothing was done - forget about public policies, that required people, all people, to not even unilaterally change their behaviours one iota in the face of a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands of their neighbours, family and friends.

[DonaldD]

Sorry to hear that msquared...

[Mynnion]

You know, back when the United States was looking at in excess of 2 million people dead from Covid19.

You mean like when Trump stated in late February: "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done,"

214K deaths later......

[TheDeamon]

You know, back when the United States was looking at in excess of 2 million people dead from Covid19.

You mean like when Trump stated in late February: "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done,"

214K deaths later......

While that was what he was saying, it was when early reporting indicated a fatality rate in the 1 to 2% range, which is how you get 2 million+ people dead in a nation with 330 million people in it.

[DonaldD]

Over the past month, the 7-day rolling average of daily new cases has increased almost daily; so basically, daily numbers have been consistently increasing for over a month now.

The 7-day average is also the highest it's been since August 14, when the numbers were dropping from the highs of late July.

[DonaldD]

Study estimates that 75,000 more people died during the spring and summer in the USA as a result of COVID-19 than previously reported.

Taking into consideration the previously posited causes such as delayed care as well as co-morbidities like Alzheimers, diabetes and heart disease , there was an excess of 75,000 deaths over that period.  That's an additional 50% over official estimates.

By examining death certificates, the study found more than 150,000 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19 during that period. But researchers determined that nearly 75,000 additional deaths were indirectly caused by the pandemic, bringing the total number of deaths for those four months to more than 225,000. 

...

Woolf says the deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic came from illnesses such as Alzheimer's disease, diabetes and heart disease, which sharply increased in the same five states that recorded the most COVID-19 deaths.

Delayed care, fear of seeking care or emotional crises stemming from the pandemic could have also contributed to these deaths, he says, as well as inaccurate death certificates that may have misidentified a COVID-19 death.

[TheDeamon]

Study estimates that 75,000 more people died during the spring and summer in the USA as a result of COVID-19 than previously reported.

Taking into consideration the previously posited causes such as delayed care as well as co-morbidities like Alzheimers, diabetes and heart disease , there was an excess of 75,000 deaths over that period.  That's an additional 50% over official estimates.

First responders are certainly noticing an increase of callouts they're getting because people are avoiding seeking medical treatment for things because of their fear getting covid during the doctor's visit. Which means they end up with much worse medical conditions that require an ambulance ride rather than driving themselves to the doctor.

But that also makes related deaths harder to quanitfy. Fear of covid certainly was a decisive contributor to their outcome, but Covid19 itself had nothing to do with their deaths.

[DonaldD]

So if COVID-19 didn't exist, they would not have died, because there would have been no fear of COVID, but COVID-19 itself had nothing to do with their deaths... you're really straining at a gnat there; it's a distinction without a difference.

And that's ignoring that your anecdotal evidence doesn't mean any significant fraction, never mind a majority, of the 75,000 are the result of avoiding seeking treatment due to fear.  I'm sure there are some people who did, but unless they made up a majority, that's still an additional 40,000 deaths (and even those 35,000 would still be COVID-related)

[msquared]

If it was a contributor how could it have nothing to do with their death.  It contributed.

[msquared]

Well the retired owner of our company died from Covid this morning after 11 days on a ventilator. His wife, who was also sick but has recovered some, was with him when he died.

I worked for the man for 26 years. He was a college roommate with my father and I have known the man all my life.  Grew up with his kids (one is a year older and 1 is 2 years younger). They lived a couple of blocks down the street from us for 12 years.

Anyone who tells you this is a hoax is lying.

[TheDrake]

Well the retired owner of our company died from Covid this morning after 11 days on a ventilator. His wife, who was also sick but has recovered some, was with him when he died.

I worked for the man for 26 years. He was a college roommate with my father and I have known the man all my life.  Grew up with his kids (one is a year older and 1 is 2 years younger). They lived a couple of blocks down the street from us for 12 years.

Anyone who tells you this is a hoax is lying.

Sorry to hear that. Another empty chair...

[DonaldD]

 

[DonaldD]

Well, this is disappointing: Big global study finds remdesivir doesn't help Covid-19 patients.

(CNN)In a study it described as both conclusive and disappointing, the World Health Organization said the antiviral drug remdesivir has "little or no effect on mortality" for patients hospitalized with coronavirus and it doesn't seem to help patients recover any faster, either.

Until now, remdesivir has been the only drug that appeared to have specific effects for coronavirus. It was the only drug with an Emergency Use Authorization for Covid-19 from the US Food and Drug Administration.
Results of the WHO study have not been published in a peer-reviewed medical journal. But WHO posted them to a pre-print server.

[rightleft22]

Also disappointing. Starting to hear reports of people contracting covid twice

[TheDeamon]

Also disappointing. Starting to hear reports of people contracting covid twice

Which means "booster shots" for any potential vaccine at least twice a year as comparatively few people were infected 6+ months ago, and if infection with the virus itself cannot protect that long, a vaccine is going to be extremely hard pressed to do better.

Of course, the trade-off on the "re-infection" reports, which aren't exactly new(having been around for months as well), is are we truly looking at a re-infection, or a resurgence of the initial infection?

[yossarian22c]

Of course, the trade-off on the "re-infection" reports, which aren't exactly new(having been around for months as well), is are we truly looking at a re-infection, or a resurgence of the initial infection?

The most recent out of Nevada was a confirmed reinfection based on a full dna sequencing of the virus from both cases.

[TheDrake]

Also disappointing. Starting to hear reports of people contracting covid twice

I think there's no need to panic about this. As long as it is rare, it won't be so bad. It's hard to know how many people get reexposed in the first place, but I would guess that people are generally less safe after recovery because of their well-founded belief in immunity.

Of course, the reports are really just all a plot by the Democrat controlled media to make people frightened so that Trump will lose and they can establish the police state they've always wanted.

[DonaldD]

Daily numbers continue to increase across the US... Friday showed the highest number of new daily cases since the peak centred in late July, and the trend line has been very consistently upwards over the past 5-6 weeks, with a possible acceleration over the past week or two.  Unless there have been significant changes in behaviour over the past 2 weeks, there is likely already a large number of yet-to-be-reported infections baked into the population, so you'll probably see new record numbers of infections over the next 10 days.

I am not aware of strong efforts to reduce people's movements or extra pushes to respect hygiene measures, but maybe those would be more evident locally in jurisdictions getting hit the hardest. Is anybody seeing upticks in local warnings/mandates/directives/whatever?  Clearly, without changes in behaviour, the numbers will continue to increase.

Where I live, we've seen increased levels of measures being rolled out by region as numbers increased over September, and the numbers have plateaued and are maybe dropping again... but that could turn around quickly.

[NobleHunter]

I realized recently we're probably not going to have Christmas in any real sense. Sure, there will be time off but I probably won't see anymore family than I do throughout the year.

US numbers will skyrocket because it will be just in time for Thanksgiving effects to appear.

[DonaldD]

Will there be a Thanksgiving this year, in the modern sense?  I can't imagine tens of millions of people travelling cross country twice in a week in this environment. 

[NobleHunter]

I think enough people will travel to increase infection rates. Though maybe the election will jolt people out of Trump-induced myopia.

[Ouija Nightmare]

Will there be a Thanksgiving this year, in the modern sense?  I can't imagine tens of millions of people travelling cross country twice in a week in this environment.

It did not stop the Sturgis rally did it? Something like 40% of the population is so hardcore behind the “hoax” and “just the flu” sound bites that they will proceed as normal.

That’s a large enough portion that what the rest of people do does not matter.

[DonaldD]

Taiwan shows what can happen with government leadership, cooperation, open data and crowd-sourcing solutions.  Of course, Taiwan is, socially and politically, a very different place.  As well, Taiwan took the virus seriously even before they had recorded their first case.

In the end, with very limited lockdown intrusions into daily life, Taiwan used masks and proper hygiene methods almost exclusively to crush viral spread.

Total deaths: 7
Cases per million population: 22

Compare that to Canada, with roughly the same sized population (well, about 50% larger population)
Total deaths: 9,746
Cases per million population: 5,188

[TheDeamon]

Biggest thing Taiwan did was mandate a quarantine, rather than suggest one, for anyone entering their country when this all started. Really, that is the only sane way to have approached the situation, except the United States evidently doesn't have laws on the books to enable us to do that in most cases of (routine) travel.

[TheDrake]

Taiwan is an island, and because of its unique status doesn't have people working across the border, unlike Canada and Mexico. You know what? Hawaii did pretty much the same thing with 14 day mandatory quarantine.

[TheDrake]

Trump - job creator!

CVS Health announced on Monday that it planned to hire 15,000 workers to prepare for expected increases in coronavirus and flu cases in the United States during the fall and winter months.

More than 10,000 of the new roles will be full-time and part-time licensed pharmacy technicians at CVS Pharmacy locations to help administer Covid-19 tests, process prescriptions and dispense medications.

“Additional team members typically are needed every flu season,” Lisa Bisaccia, chief human resources officer of CVS Health, said in a statement. “However, we’re estimating a much greater need for trained pharmacy technicians this year given the continued presence of Covid-19 in our communities.”

[DonaldD]

US 7-day average new cases per day - this does not bode well:

2020-10-20   60,915
2020-10-18   57,674
2020-10-16   55,948
2020-10-14   53,156
2020-10-12   50,695
2020-10-10   48,885
2020-10-08   47,064
2020-10-06   44,477
2020-10-04   43,853
2020-10-02   42,788
2020-09-30   42,730
2020-09-28   41,656
2020-09-26   41,523
2020-09-24   41,315
2020-09-22   41,274
2020-09-20   41,624
2020-09-18   40,981
2020-09-16   39,363
2020-09-14   37,472
2020-09-12   35,578

[TheDrake]

We hit an inflection point in cases about 2 weeks ago, I fear the death toll is going to start rising from the current rate of 800 per day. Note that even if it doesn't rise, that's another 57,000 by the end of the year.

[msquared]

It will stop when the miracle happens. Which will be the day after we elect Trump

[msquared]

I forgot the sarcasm tag on that line.

[TheDrake]

"soon it will be down to zero"

[DonaldD]

Is this just how 2020 works, now?  Why are (relatively) famous US men getting caught on video playing with themselves?

[TheDrake]

You've got to hand it to Trump, at least he's not trying this:

The idea of vaccinating healthy volunteers and then deliberately infecting them with the coronavirus — a plan set in motion for the first time by scientists in London this week — carries enormous ethical difficulties.

Even though young, healthy participants are unlikely to be seriously sickened or killed, the virus is unpredictable and the long-term consequences of an infection are unknown, with the pandemic having started only months ago.

Beyond the ethical reservations, scientists also posed practical questions about the London researchers’ plan to compare vaccines by inoculating people and then dripping virus into their noses.

For one thing, scientists stressed that several vaccine makers had already distanced themselves from the idea, known as a human challenge trial. The researchers — working with Imperial College London and hVivo, a company specializing in such studies, with backing from the British government — have not said what vaccines they will test.

The British government, under fire for its pandemic response, hopes the trial will accelerate the development of vaccines. But scientists questioned whether the fierce race for immunization had unduly influenced plans for a human challenge trial.

“It’s a race for money and glory,” Prof. Moore said. “That’s the reality of it.”

Please, Fox News, don't do a story on this...

[TheDrake]

Remember that whole "It will be fine to reopen, as long as people at risk stay protected." argument?

Dozens of teachers in at least 35 campuses called in sick on Thursday to protest the district’s policies on social distancing — including allowing students to be within three feet of one another — and on class size, according to one of the leaders involved. Teachers with chronic health conditions have been forced to report to work while their applications for accommodations are reviewed, and requests to switch to virtual teaching are being denied even for people with cancer, the leader said.

Emphasis mine.

See, I knew that segmentation was never going to work, exactly for this reason. Because workers aren't getting to determine for themselves whether they are at risk. And even if you were going to take it out of their hands, the right thing to do is to let them stay away until there is a determination.

Houston, you have a problem

Oh and by the way, in addition to this, they are relaxing their own standards before the ink dried because its reopen no matter what time.

Houston schools reopened its 280 schools on Monday. The next day, 16 of them were forced to close again because someone had tested positive on campus, according to the district. Administrators responded with an announcement on Wednesday that schools would no longer be closed when just a single person tests positive, a stricter policy than many other large districts across the nation had adopted.

Now it will take two sick people to close a campus. When there is just one, the infected person and others who were directly exposed will be isolated and “if possible, sent home,” and the campus will be disinfected overnight.

[oldbrian]

1) It has been several months now since President Trump famously stated that anyone who wanted to get tested could go down to the testing spot and get it done.

2) The entire IDEA of an overarching federal government is to do nationwide projects that private business is not motivated to do and is beyond the scope of the states.

Question:  wouldn't it make more sense to test everyone who has been 'exposed' (by whatever criteria you want) so we actually know where it is and who has it?  Isn't that why we pay taxes?  I think even small-government Libertarians would agree that a national pandemic response falls into the 'needful' category.

Yes?  No?

[DonaldD]

So, the president continues to blame China not just for the virus, but also seemingly every single effect associated to the virus (see "I take full responsibility. It’s not my fault that it came here. It’s China’s fault")

Putting aside that Trump is responsible for his own actions, which might just have had effects also (I know, a crazy thought...) what exactly does that mean?  Is he blaming China for being the geographical location of the first infections?  Is he blaming China's 'cultural practices' of harvesting wild foods?  Was it that China targeted the USA for the infection - and if so, how? If another country was the source of an infection - say, swine flu - would it then be that country's 'fault'?

[TheDrake]

People in China are wearing masks. The United States is far more culpable over months and months of negligence than China is for its weeks of damaging secrecy. And for pulling funding from the WHO, which, despite its flaws will be the advance team for worldwide vaccination.

[DonaldD]

Yeah, but I'm not asking about rational input here - I'm trying to get my head around the accusation that Trump thinks he is making...

[rightleft22]

So, the president continues to blame China not just for the virus, but also seemingly every single effect associated to the virus (see "I take full responsibility. It’s not my fault that it came here. It’s China’s fault")

Putting aside that Trump is responsible for his own actions, which might just have had effects also (I know, a crazy thought...) what exactly does that mean?  Is he blaming China for being the geographical location of the first infections?  Is he blaming China's 'cultural practices' of harvesting wild foods?  Was it that China targeted the USA for the infection - and if so, how? If another country was the source of an infection - say, swine flu - would it then be that country's 'fault'?

Trump missed a opportunity. Its true that the initial messaging on masks was confusing. However after learning better a simple plan to encourage everyone to wear them if only to add in his goal of keeping America open I think we would be looking at a different race.

[DonaldD]

Boom.  And just like that, today saw the highest number of new daily cases reported in the country since the beginning of the pandemic, 81,210 new cases according to Worldometer.

[TheDrake]

But yo, he did such a great job closing the barn door against China when it hardly mattered.

[DonaldD]

Given the likely spike (or maybe more accurately, the increasing spikes that will likely occur over the next month at least) are people - Democrat, Republican, independent or other - encouraging their acquaintances to vote early (in any fashion) in order to avoid what will likely be a more dangerous situation on each successive day?

[DonaldD]

Another milestone - today, with just 2,000 fewer new daily cases than was recorded yesterday, was not only the second-highest daily case count of the pandemic, but at 79,000 new cases, was more than 10,000 more daily new cases than reported on any other Saturday.

The 7-day average is now just 2000 lower than the peak recorded in late July.

[DonaldD]

Oops - my bad.  The past two days weren't actually record breaking:

You know why there are so many cases? Because we test. Because we test more than any country in the world, nobody tests like us. Everybody uses the word 'cases'... Use the word 'case' because you're trying to scare people. Don't scare people. Don't scare people. The fact is, that we're doing very well.

[DonaldD]

And just to show that people can be stupid elsewhere, too: The Scotsman: Scottish Government urged to agree coronavirus 'ceasefire' on Christmas Day

The Bishop of Paisley has called for an easing of restrictions on Christmas Day amid warnings of a “digital Christmas”.

"...when, in a stunning show of humanity and brotherhood, the coronavirus agreed to lay down arms, share cigs, sing carols and organized pick-up matches of football with the soldiers facing them down across the fields of death."

[DonaldD]

The Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness released a study this week: 130,000 – 210,000 AVOIDABLE COVID-19 DEATHS – AND COUNTING – IN THE U.S.

Through comparative analysis and applying proportional mortality rates, we estimate that at least 130,000 deaths and perhaps as many as 210,000 could have been avoided with earlier policy interventions and more robust federal coordination and leadership.

Even with the dramatic recent appearance of new COVID-19 waves globally, the abject failures of U.S. government policies and crisis messaging persist. U.S. fatalities have remained disproportionately high throughout the pandemic when compared to even other high-mortality countries.³ The inability of the U.S. to mitigate the pandemic is especially stark when contrasted with the response of high-income nations, such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, Germany, France, and Canada, as well as low- and middle-income countries as varied as Thailand, Pakistan, Honduras, and Malaysia. All of these nations have had greater success in protecting their populations from the impact of the coronavirus.

Given the United States’ unique social and political realities, we recognize that it might have been particularly challenging to implement the same caliber of response as South Korea and Japan, both of which maintain centralized unitary governments. Nonetheless, the range of “avoidable deaths” outlined above stems from data illustrating how some of the best performing nations have achieved much greater results in protecting their populations.